Betting

Saturday Selections: May, 5th 2018

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Gleneagles

3.35 Newmarket: 2000 Guineas, 1 mile

You can’t deny the fact he has been massively disappointing in his last two runs, however, there were very valid excuses for Expert Eye to finish last in the Dewhurst when a warm favourite to land it, as well as when a slightly underwhelming runner-up in the Greenham a fortnight ago.

Regardless, Expert Eye possesses tons of talent as he proved in the Vintage Stakes last summer – a Group 2 event he took with so much ease only the really good ones are capable of.

No doubt, his chances hinge on him settling early on. We have seen Expert Eye pulling his chances away before, and if we see the same here, him pulling the arms off Andrea Atzeni over the first few furlongs then his race is over before it really started.

That’s the reason why Expert Eye is as big a price as he is. Still too big, as I trust Sir Michael to teach the horse how to settle and his seasonal debut run should help in that regard as well.

Selection:
10pts win – Expert Eye @ 12/1 VC

…….

6.20 Doncaster: Class 3 Handicap, 1 mile

Some interesting horses at the top of the market, though I do prefer the chance of bottom weight Chingachgook. A son of Eclipse winner Al Kazeem (wonderful memories, I was at Sandown that day to see him romp home), in five career starts he has shown plenty of potential.

After few fine performances on the All-Weather over the winter he made his handicap debut at Newcastle in February – the only time he bombed out up until now. Switched to turf for the first time at the end of March at Musselburgh, Chingachgook returned to form.

In bottomless ground conditions he didn’t have an ideal break from the widest draw and found himself for most parts of the race in the uncomfortable position chasing the pack. That’s never good at Musselburgh, particularly in those type of conditions.

Chingachgook also didn’t get the clearest of runs through the field and the bird was flown once he was in the clear. Still, he ran on well to finish a good second, doing anything as the only horse from those held up. The form has been franked by the winner and fourth subsequently.

Same handicap mark, slightly better ground, upped in grade, however having the chance to race off a featherweight – Chingachgook should be able to outrun his price tag. Whether that is enough to beat the better fancied market principles remains to be seen.

Selection:
10pts win – Chingachgook @ 9/1 WH

Betting

Wednesday Selections: May, 2nd 2018

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Back in the winner’s circle after two rotten days: Slunovrat (3/1) went on to win at Nottingham in a thriller.

…….

4.30 Pontefract: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Top weight Dandy Highwayman looks potentially overpriced dropping into a slightly easier race than when 10th at Ripon recently. That day he didn’t have things to go for himself with a wall of horses in front of him either.

However, Dandy Highwayman showed last season that he is capable to run to forms warranting his current rating off 82. He’s 2lb higher than his last winning mark but was really consistent last season where most of his races that he ran well in worked out quite well also.

The soft ground is a slight question mark – he has form with cut in the ground, so might be okay, though, ground as deep as today he only encountered once, which was the race a fortnight ago at Ripon.

A wider than ideal draw will make things not easy today. There is no doubt that a career best is required to win. Nonetheless, given he is capable to run to this sort of level, was consistent last year and is in a grade he can win in, I feel he is quite a massive price.

Selection:
10pts win – Dandy Highwayman @ 25/1 VC / ***Non-Runner***

Betting

Tuesday Selections: May, 1st 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

4.35 Nottingham: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 6f

Slunovrat makes plenty of appeal on his seasonal reappearance. He runs very well as a fresh horse, though he did not have a lot of racing last season. He was a long way beaten in his last two starts, however those came in really hot contests.

On his seasonal reappearance last year he finished a strong 2nd at Sandown over 1m 6f. That form works out quite well and off a same handicap mark today, in what looks an easier contest, I feel Slunovrat has a prime chance.

The soft conditions hold no fears to him. His record with cut in the ground is excellent. Jim Crowley in the saddle is a big bonus for this yard and at this track.

Selection:
10pts win – Slunovrat @ 3/1 Matchbook

Betting

Monday Selections: April, 30th 2018

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I got it wrong: Cracksman did that so easily in the Prix Ganay this afternoon. He certainly looked like the horse the betting suggested he is. On the other hand you have to hand it to Frankie Dettori. He gave Cracksman a peach of a ride. Tracking the pace, always in the right position.

That’s the difference between a good jockey who gets it often right and a top class jockey who is at the top of the game for decades who gets it very rarely wrong

Dettori’s judgement was stark contrast to the rather poor ride Cloth Of Stars received from Mikael Barzelona. The idea behind dropping the five year old in seemed sensible. However, you got to be flexible and be able to react to the fact that you can’t concede first run to Cracksman, or at least come from miles off the pace if you want to beat him over this trip is not rocked science (says the armchair jockey that I am).

Would a different ride have made any difference in terms of outcome of the race? Likely not. Though, we might have gotten a contest, at least.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO5rU3kMG4k

……..

4.25 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Novice Stakes, 9.5f 

This is a really good field with the majority of these interesting moving forward this season. Clear preference is with recent Chelmsford scorer Mootasadir. He nicely bred and sets a good standard here.

He is a short price and gives weight away to some other promising individuals. Same goes for Well Suited, also a winner on the Chelmsford All-Weather. One with scope but also weight he’s conceding.

I am most interest in that context in the first son of wonderful Shirocco Star: Starcaster. He’s obviously incredibly well bred but also receives a good deal of weight from the market principles due to them already being off the mark. A further 3lb claimed by a fine apprentice in the saddle is a little bonus.

Starcaster caught the eye in his first two career starts towards the end of last season. He certainly was desperately unlucky not finish closer than a 1½ lengths beaten third at Goodwood.

Judged on those performances as well as collateral form, Starcaster, with the weight he gets, should be in with a big shout in this race. Whether he is fully wound up first time out this year remains to be seen.

Selection:
10pts win – Starcaster @ 9/2 WH

 

6.50 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 1 mile

In an open contest I feel it’s worth siding with one who is likely to give his running: CD specialist Muqarred. He may well be in the grip of the handicapper, however, in a slightly less competitive contest than the ones he raced in over the winter months, given he has been eight out of eleven runs in the money over CD, even as top weight he appeals to me.

The main reason is that he has shown to be competitive of marks around his current rating off 77 – a run to this sort of mark will see him go close. The bonus that could Muqarred the edge is fine apprentice Ben Sanderson in the saddle.

The 7lb claimer has been striking a fine partnership with trainer Roger Fell lately, particularly at this venue. He is certainly worth his claim – taking that into account means Muqarred has a prime chance here.

Selection:
10pts win – Muqarred @ 6/1 PP

Betting

Sunday Selections: Prix Ganay Preview

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Territories

Let me be upfront: Cloth Of Stars is a silly price in this afternoon’s Prix Garnay. I totally get why Cracksman is a hot favourite to land the Group 1 prize, and I also understand why he should be a short price to do so – however two to one on? Whereas Cloth Of Stars an unloved 7/2 shot? That’s not right.

We all have still in mind when Cracksman ran away so impressively with the Champion Stakes, smashing excellent opposition, having Poet’s Word chasing in vain seven lengths behind.

He won three on the trot in the second half of the 2017 season. He could hardly have done more. Agreed. However, it is probably fair to say his most impressive performances all came with significant cut in the ground.

Cracksman has proven to run well fresh. So that might not be a concern today. However, being fresh, on good ground, against classy- and race fit opposition with bigger targets on the horizon is a proposition that makes me think he is potentially vulnerable today.

Main threat is going to be Cloth Of Stars. Last year’s runner-up in the Arc behind Enable. He didn’t have things going for himself as a three year old, though stepped up markedly in 2017.

He won the Prix Ganay and ended the year with the excellent second place in the Arc where he got out into the clear too late in order to have a serious crack at Enable. It still was an almighty performance, given he travelled so strongly and picked up instantly once seeing daylight.

Cloth Of Stars has race fitness on his side. A prep run on the All-Weather, before he headed to Dubai for the Sheema Classic. With no pace on, the five year old colt had to sit and suffer behind leader- and eventual winner Hawkbill. Cloth Of Stars needs pace in order to settle – he didn’t get that at Meydan at all and pulled the arms off Mikael Barzelona pretty much until turning for home.

Wasting all that energy, Cloth Of Stars still finished a fine third. Back on home soil, pace will be a question once more today. He’s got a pace maker in the race – a 150/1 shot – but if that one gets ignored because virtually a hopeless chance to win, then it could still turn into a bit of a muddling affair.

Nonetheless, I feel there is not as much between Cracksman and Cloth Of Stars as the betting tries to make us believe. Both are really good Group 1 horses. Cracksman might still turn out to be the one with the bit more class. At given odds I feel comfortable backing Cloth Of Stars, regardless.

Selection:
10pts win – Cloth Of Stars @ 7/2 VC

Betting

Sunday Selections: April, 29th 2018

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Despite drifting out to a 6/1 SP, Candidate (7/2) won with plenty to spare in the end to make it two on the trot after Mancini kicked this week off in the best possible way a couple of days ago. A hat-trick wasn’t to be, though. Toy Theatre ran well but only managed 3rd place.

……

2.30 Salisbury: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

It’s fair to say Pack It In has not shown a lot for his new yard since switching to Alexandra Dunn last summer. Jumping didn’t work out and he never seemed to take to the sand racing during the winter months.

Back on turf things might be different. He returns to grass a full 10lb lower than when finishing a good runner-up at Bath in a class 4 Handicap back in August. He’s also 5lb and 11lb lower than his last two winning marks.

Pack It In has no problem with cut in the ground, in fact it seems to be what he prefers. So the tough going might well be in his favour here. The fact that his two highest time speed ratings (68) came last year off similar handicap marks suggest to me he could potentially incredibly well handicapped now.

Selection:
10pts win – Pack It In @ 6/1 GB

Betting

Saturday Selections II: April, 28th 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

7.15 Doncaster: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

I do fancy Camelot son Candidate here. Interesting to see him stepping up markedly in trip on his seasonal reappearance. This late May foal showed promise as a juvenile on his second career start when a two lengths beaten fourth at Windsor. He was down the field in his to other runs, then in hot company, though.

This represents a drop in class and easier assignment on handicap debut. An opening mark off 75 on the other hand looks slightly on the stiff side.

However, Candidate should enjoy the soft ground and has every chance to stay the trip. So, he appears to be an individual with plenty of scope hence may turn out better than this mark.

Kirby booked for this yard is generally a big plus, even more so as Hughie Morrison’s only runner today.

Selection:
10pts win – Candidate @ 7/2 VC

Betting

Saturday Selections: April, 28th 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Deep into April and here I was celebrating a winner at Chelmsford… well, it doesn’t really matter where it is as long as “the good thing” gets the head in front. Thursday selection Mancini (13/2) won well in the end, looking like a horse with more to come this year.

It’s been a pretty quiet April in general. The clam before the storm?

……

7.45 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Trappy affair, open and hard to judge some of these fillies and mares. One of those is Toy Theatre who returns off a 114 days long break.

She didn’t quite excel over the winter on the All-Weather after a largely progressive campaign in 2017. She won twice on turf, including over CD as well as a very competitive class 3 Handicap at Newmarket.

I don’t judge her too harshly on those last efforts on the sand. However, given she has to overcome a career highest mark and a lay-off one might wonder where the improvement is coming from.

It looks obvious to me: Toy Theatre had only 6 starts on turf. Three of those came as a juvenile when she wasn’t supposed to win. The other three came last season, starting with a tough assignment at Chester in a class 3 Handicap where she wasn’t disgraced in 4th place from a wide draw.

The other two times she won, seemingly showing a preference for softish conditions. That aligns with the fact that she was withdrawn due to unsuitable ground when the going turned fast.

Thy Theatre’s Newmarket win looks incredibly strong. The form worked out really well. She won a shade cosily, despite the tight margin, subsequently over CD.

Given that this here will be the softest ground she has ever encountered, showing in the past that this what she might prefer, the fact that she always looked a filly to improve with time and her potential scope for improvement on turf, I feel Toy Theatre is a rather big price in this open field.

Selection:
10pts win – Toy Theatre @ 9/1 WH

Betting

Thursday Selections: April, 26th 2018

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5.55 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 6f

Lightly raced Nathaniel son Mancini makes plenty of appeal here for a red hot yard. Off a seasonal break, with a jockey booked who rides pretty well for trainer Jonathan Portman, this race looks an ideal opportunity for Mancini to get 2018 off to a flyer.

The four year old gelding won a Pontefract maiden last July at the fourth time asking and was subsequently awarded a handicap mark off 73. That looks fair given the runner-up won subsequently and ended the season as a 83 rated individual.

Mancini flopped in handicap company in his final start of the year, though, that was a hot contest that has worked out incredibly well.

Moving down in class, this here looks easier. It’s his first try on the All-Weather, gut on pedigree could suit well. As Mancini already run to a TS rating off 77 when winning at Pontefract, I suspect he could be well handicapped off his current mark in what is only his second handicap start and overall only sixth career outing.

Selection:
10pts win – Mancini @ 13/2 Skybet

Betting

Grand National Day Selections

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5.15 Aintree: Grand National Chase

The yearly lottery of finding the winner in the Grand National is nearly upon us once more. Twelve months ago I day-dreamed for a few moments…. here it is, finally I break the duck as Blacklion travelles like from another planet….

It wasn’t to be, as we all know. Will it be today? Possibly. One more time I put my trust in the Twiston-Davies runner. Much closer to top weight today, 9lb higher in his rating in fact – it looks a tough ask on paper.

However, connections had this day in mind ever since he faded into 4th twelve months ago. That day, when he travelled like the winner, he also pulled himself to the front way too soon. He made too much too early and that cost him dearly in the end. That’s my assessment, at least.

Same can happen today. Though, Sam Twiston-Davies may have learned from that day. The additional weight, mainly received for his emphatic win in the Beacher Handicap Chase here in December, is probably fair overall.

Fact is, Blacklion enjoys this course, he has top form in tough going conditions, had a wind OP since his last run, and according to connections as perfect a preparation as you there ever was. Today is D-Day!

Nonetheless, as much confidence I have in Blacklion, this is the National after all, hence you can never have too much confidence in any runner. Luck plays its part. That says, course form is something noteworthy, and as such it would be foolish to rule out The Last Samuri.

He absolutely loves the National fences and was runner-up in the 2016 National. A good deal higher in the weights today, he hardly appears well handicapped.

Regardless, with ground to suit, first time tongue-time potentially a help, and a fine prep run in the Cross-Country at the Festival (as much as Cheltenham can ever be regarded a ‘prep’), The Lat Samuri should be thereabouts.

Slightly more speculative is my final selection: Final Nudge. From the bottom of the weights, he is an interesting runner. He clearly stays and loves the mud as proven in the Walsh National.

On paper he was slightly disappointing in anything he did afterwards, though, personally I think his Kim Muir performance was better than the bare form suggests. He needs a good round of jumping, which can be an issue for him. Still, he looks one of the more intriguing runners, and at 50’s I take a punt.

Selections:
6.5pts win – Blacklion @ 17/1 Matchbook
2pts win – The Last Samuri @ 31/1 Matchbook
1.5pts win – Final Nudge @ 49/1 Matchbook

………

9.00 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Logi hasn’t been firing for his new yard in two starts, however, dropping below a rating off 70 for the first time in his career, with a fine 5lb claimer in the saddle, he looks ready for a big run.

The four year old was unlucky not to win three starts back over course and distance in a similar race, so has proven he is well home on this surface and this class in and around his current rating.

He finds himself in this race today on much better terms and only the wider than ideal draw is a slight concern.

Selection:
10pts win – Logi @ 7/1 Matchbook

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