It was good to back a winner yesterday. In fact it was a nice & comfortable win for God Of Fire at Beverley. He was on the pace, in the right position throughout, and simply didn’t stop.
The same fortune didn’t apply to my Durban July selection Future Swing. He clearly wasn’t ready when the gates opened, not standing straight, leaning awkward to the side in the stall and it was a shame the starter let it go. He had no chance.
Whether he would have been good enough on the day with a fair start will be an unknown forever. Credit where it’s due, though: it was a sensational ride by J P v’d Merwe on the winner Oriental Charm, in any case.
Double figure draw? No bother. Once in front, he rode them to sleep, set a perfect tempo for his mount, who wasn’t certain to stay the July trip. But he has speed and travelles and just kicked on hitting the home straight with plenty in hand, and rivals from behind had too much to do as Oriental Charm was able to sustain his effort all the way.
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2.45 Hamburg: Group 1 – German Derby, 1m 4f
An open enough contest that may evolve around the way the pace develops with some of the better fancied runners having to overcome double-figure draws.
Likely front-runner Geminiano is a non-runner now, hence this may not turn out into all-out stamina test. It should prove vital to have a good early position, not too far off the pace, which means the likes of Narrativo and Wintertraum, currently the top two in the betting, have to be used up a little more than ideal, possibly, from their 10 and 11 gates early on.
Narrativo heads the market at the time of writing. A superb winner of Union-Rennen, a traditional leading Derby trial, he produced a lovely change of gear from off the pace.
He was a solid 3rd in the strong renewal of the Prix Hocquart behind Calandagan, so that’s proper form and a colt nicely improving with each run.
Wintertraum gets the assistance of Oisin Murphy and was an equally highly impress winner of a Derby Trial at Düsseldorf. He didn’t get a clear run until 300m out and sprinted away in superb style.
I don’t like the double-figure draws both leading betting chances have, and think they’re no more than fair prices, although, they are obvious chances to run well.
I’m quite interested in Wintertraum’s stable mate Augustus, though. He’s a tough sort, improving, and looks a stayer in the making who’ll appreciate the softish ground and the new trip.
He impressed when winning the Derby Trial at Baden-Baden last month as he was doing much the best of those up or chasing the hot pace. He came under pressure, seemingly outpaced over three furlongs from home, also looking still a bit green in the closing stages, but showed tremendous attitude to outstay smart Wilko.
Augustus should be ridden positive from the #1 gate and has the pedigree to improve for the step up to the Derby distance. He’s progressing nicely, as he followed on from a solid seasonal reappearance at Munich with the strong Trial win.
The second horse I’m giving a huge chance, who’s going to be my main bet, is already a Derby winner: Borna. He won the Derby Italiano in brilliant style back in May.
He overcame a wide draw and travelled wider than ideal for the majority of the race, nonetheless he made nice progress on the outside and travelled strongly on the bridle hitting the home straight. Two furlongs out he was all alone up there, and seemed to get a bit lonely, wandering and looking around. Ultimately he won with authority.
That looks strong form. The second, Royal Supremacy finished a fine 3rd at Royal Ascot in the King Edward subsequently. Borna looks a progressive sort, who should only get better with age and experience.
He was beaten by Wintertraum last season, though that was over a mile. He’ll have to prove that he can stretch out over the Derby trip, an additional furlong compared to Capannelle, but then the dam was placed over 1m 7f, so there’s a decent chance.
I like the fact from the #4 gate he’ll get it easy early on to find a decent position not too far off the pace, and given he’s a strong traveller he should be suited by the Hamburg track.
This weekend is always one of my favourite racing weekends of the year – the Durban July, Eclipse Stakes and the German Derby. As a racing fan it’s glorious.
The pick of the lot for me personally is the July. My favourite flat race in the entire international racing calendar. Such an intriguing puzzle to solve, being the Grade 1 Handicap it is, bringing the Classic generation and the best of the older horses together.
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3.35 Sandown: Group 1 – Eclipse Stakes, 1m 2f
All the excuses made for City Of Troy’s poor showing in the Guineas seemed spot on as the hype turned real when the son of Justify demolished the Derby field at Epsom.
It was one of the most impressive Derby performances I’ve seen, undoubtably. He had to overcome a less than ideal #1 draw and had to come further back than you would have wanted. He still managed to win – not just win, he sprinted home in the closing stages, compared to all his rivals.
Stamina clearly came to the fore as he outstayed all his main rivals thanks to a strong, sustained effort from four furlongs out. He was a different horse to the one seen at Newmarket, where he never seemed happy at all.
In this years renewal of the Eclipse City Of Troy is the outstanding favourite, with his main rival in the market having finished 8+ lengths behind him at Epsom.
Saying that, Sandown over 10 furlongs poses a completely different test to the Derby run at quirky Epsom. No question, City Of Troy likely has all the tools to succeed here as well. But there is that nagging doubt in my mind, given what we saw at Newmarket.
The fast early pace seemed to take him off his feet that day, more than anything. Whereas at Epsom, it wasn’t an overly taxing gallop, and he had plenty of time to settle and eventually relax.
Given his stable mate Hans Andersen will likely move forward and then tries to set the ideal tempo, it could go all just perfectly to plan… unless the likes of Ghostwriter or perhaps See The Fire spoil the party.
They could press for the lead as well. Both can be quite keen certainly Ghostwriter enjoys going forward forward, while See The Fire, keen over a mile, may want to get on with things over this new trip. Surely both wouldn’t want a sedate pace, and leave it up to Aiden O’Brien’s pace maker to decide their fate.
If there’s a a bit of a pace battle early on, and as a result over this shorter trip City Of Troy may not have the luxury of relaxing early on, I can see him being vulnerable. But only then. No doubt, the rain has helped and enhanced his overall chances.
The aforementioned Ghostwriter – fourth in the 2000 Guineas and the French Derby is an intriguing runner. He’s been running consistently to a high level and remains unexposed over this trip. The rain is a question mark, although he did well on heavy in the French Derby.
The 4-year-old Al Riffa is a frustrating sort, though with the rain coming, may enjoy this specific test over this course and distance and remains a relatively lightly raced colt with possible upside.
They all will have to improve significantly to get anywhere near to City Of Troy, if he translates his Epsom form the Eclipse. In saying that, if he doesn’t there’re alternatives.
The most intriguing rival should prove Dancing Gemini, though. Obviously I backed him the last two times, and still remember with agony how he just came close to win the French Guineas at Longchamp, if not for a shocking ride/tactical decision in that race.
In mind it’s clear that Dancing Gemini was the last two times seriously unfortunate not to finish closer to the winner than he eventually did. Hence I’m delighted to see McMonagle replaced in the saddle. He’s one of the worst judges of pace (in my unqualified view as armchair jockey). Kieran Shoemark is a significant upgrade.
While Dancing Gemini stayed on strongly at Longchamp, he didn’t looked like getting home at Epsom over 12 furlongs. One could argue, though: the way the race panned out for him had a lot to with the fact that he didn ran on to finish in the money.
Saying that, perhaps he had to be ridden as patiently as he was to have any chance to finish the race well. Yet, trailing in last position for a majority of the race was a wasted opportunity from a good draw after having a fine start to the race as well.
From his position so far back he had to use a lot of energy to make progress, quickening right into the fastest part of the race, while having to go wide and enduring interference around Tattenham Corner.
Despite all of this, remarkably Dancing Gemini still finished third fastest over the last three furlongs. It was a serious performance from a seriously talented colt.
It’s not rocket science to conclude the drop to 10 furlongs will be a positive for the colt though. He showed speed for a mile in Group 1 company while finishing strongly over that trip, and did well enough over 12 furlongs, without looking like properly staying it.
The nagging doubt that persists is whether he’s a horse that simply catches the eye, always promising to take the next step, without ever truly making it. He’s yet to run a three-figure speed rating, while catching the eye for various reasons in all his prior starts as well.
At this point in time I remain a believer. Believing that Dancing Gemini can improve for experience, for the trip and the track. If that’s the case, I do believe he’ll give COT certainly a proper race in the closing stages.
When writing this yesterday I thought somewhere around 8 or 9 would the price to get him; waking up this morning, as the ground turned soft, seeing much bigger than that on the Exchanges surprised me. In fact, his best form comes with juice in the ground, so that, I feel, can only enhance his chances today.
10pts win – Dancing Gemini @ 14/1(SM)
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3.00 Greyville: Grade 1 – Durban July, 1m 3f
This looks as open a renewal of the Durban July as there has been for a while. Mike De Kock said on preview night he feels the three-year-olds have the upper hand these days, but personally I’m not so sure.
From a handicapping perspective not too many horses scream “well in” but to De Kock’s point, 3-year-old colt Green With Envy has the makings of a fair favourite and on the basis of Weight For Age.
The way he won the Daily News 2000 when last seen where took the scenic route around the final bend, coming from well off the pace, was mightily impressive. There is every chance he’ll get the additional distance and can improve again, especially at a track he’s 3 from 3.
The danger is the whether he’ll get a good trip. Green With Envy is usually ridden stone cold, one who’s winning his races thanks to a devastating turn of foot.
Two issues with that in the July: it’s a big 18-runner field. He’s never encountered that. It’s a different beast compared to winning a 9-runner Cape Derby with plenty of space.
He may not get a perfect trip, and crucially, a possibly sedate enough pace may see his turn of foot blunted as he’ll have to quicken into fastest part of the race, having to make up a lot of ground, potentially.
Dolphin’s Cup Trial winner Oriental Charm is another dangerous 3-year-old, if he can stay the trip. He likes this track, won the Group 3 Trial nicely, was a strong runner-up in the Grade 2 1900 and will move forward, likely enjoying the run of the race.
Saying that, stamina is a question, given he’s yet to win beyond 9 furlongs and seemed to run out of gas in the Cape Derby.
Last years impressive July winner Winchester Mansion enjoyed the perfect race twelve months ago, as well as the perfect preparation leading up to the big race.
A bigger weight, far from a perfect preparation, he’d need everything to go absolutely right on the day to see him go back to back.
Obviously you can’t dismiss last years runner-up See It Again who travelled like the winner with 200m to go, but ultimately got outstayed by Winchester Mansion in a thriller to the line.
He’s been running to strong form earlier this year in hot races, but only was seen once since January in preparation, suggesting not all went totally to plan. On the other hand, that “prep run” four weeks ago was an excellent 3rd in the Grade 1 Gold Challenge.
He’s got to defy top-weight here and that adds to the difficulty, as does his hold-up running style if the pace is slow.
Second highest weight in the race Royal Victory can’t be discounted after winning the Grade 1 Champions Challenge back in April. He raced only twice over 10 furlongs, and won two Grade 1’s. If he can stretch out over the extended trip here, he must go close.
This years Met winner Double Superlative gets the assistance of Danny Muscutt once again, who’s flying in for this race. The talk is that he’s a little short of peak fitness, though I’d be more worried about the trip.
Lightly raced Barbaresco was badly interfered with in the Daily News, was hanging in the home straight as well, and yet he stayed on the extremely well in the closing stages.
He should get home over the extended July trip, may have more to offer and could be ridden a bit closer to the pace this time from the #2 draw. He’s a real chance and the 3-year-old I’d fancy most today.
However, in my view, they all have to beat Justin Snaith’s gelding Future Swing. The son of Futura, is the pick of South Africa’s superstar jockey Richard Fourie, and that’s a vote of confidence in itself.
Snaith has been incredibly positive about Future Swing, who enjoyed a perfect prep, with the July as his target this season: a lovely comeback run in April, followed by staying on strongly to land the Grade 2 1900 here at Greyville over 9.5f.
He’s not an unexposed horse, with 18 starts and 6 wins on his CV. However, he’s one, you could argue, who had this specific day in mind for a long time, having been saved somewhat to not show the handicapper his true class, especially over these sort of trips.
In his three seasons he raced only three times beyond 9 furlongs: there was the aforementioned Grade 2 victory, and there was a Listed success over 10 furlongs as well as back in January the ultra impressive win in the Grade 3 Chairman’s Cup over 1m 4.5f.
He’s got the speed for shorter trips and the stamina to see out the July distance without a problem. A gelding who comes into his own now as he gets older, having strengthened up significantly. Versatile, with the top rider on board, a lovely draw in #4 to move forward from, with Snaith saying they’ll ride him positively.
Yes, from a pure handicapping perspective he’s giving kilos away to th likes Oriental Charm and Without A Question. But the July is a different race and trip. I fancy him to be a stronger stayer than those two, no matter the weight.
If the pace isn’t too hot, that will ensure he’s going to be in a prime position and whatever way it pans out I can see the scenario that at the top of the straight he’s send on to win the race with his superior stamina seeing him hard to catch.
10pts win – Future Swing @ 10/1 (SM)
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4.00 Beverley: Class 5 – Handicap, 1m 2f
Giselles Defence obviously has a huge chance being able to run off the same 71 mark that saw him win comfortably at Epsom three days ago. Saying that, this is a different track, and the ground possibly faster than he wants it, given the overall profile.
Much more appeal makes God Of Fire coming off a superb seasonal reappearance after changing yards and having been gelded during his absence.
He was an excellent runner-up at Salisbury three weeks ago and should improve for the run, his second for the Kubler yard as a gelding.
That day he was quickly out of the gates, chased the pace but looked still quite fresh as he was hanging around the bend. He was a little bit flat footed and not ideally placed on the inside, also hanging ever so slightly, at a crucial stage of the race between 3 and 2 furlongs from home, where the eventual winner made his decisive move.
God Of Fire eventually found his stride in the closing stages and finished the best in the final furlong, in fact. That was strong race, I thought, and the winner a good one. Only 2lb up for the run, is possibly lenient.
Jim Crowley in the saddle today for a yard in strong form, in a race where the pace could fall into his lap, the wider than normally ideal draw won’t be an issue. God Of Fire should get an easy way toward the front and could be placed in prime position.
So Grateful drops further in grade and has been given a proper chance by the handicapper, which allows him to race in class 6, after he started his season three runs back at Doncaster in a hot class 4 Handicap.
That was an eye catching performance as he was up with a hot pace and looked like to be possibly winning with a furlong to go, before getting tired badly in the closing stages.
He was far from disgraced chasing the pace in a strong race at Carlisle subsequently, although when last seen at Catterick he couldn’t confirm the promise of those earlier runs.
Now at Hamilton over 6f, the stiff finish will stretch his stamina. But this isn’t a strong race, he was a strong second off 4lb higher over this course and distance last year.
So Grateful achieved two 61+ speed ratings last year as well, and the Doncaster run last month especially suggested he’s able to run to a similar level.
The fast ground should help to get home, so should the 7lb claim of Lewis Chalkley. Obviously with only one turf win to his name, he’s overall an infrequent winner and not one to trust too much. But off a 61 mark, in this race, he looks good value.
Ancient Times looks ready to rock of his lowered mark in this slightly easier race than the last two times, where, in fairness, he ran with plenty of credit and better than bare form suggested.
The most recent Lingfield performance was the ‘worst’ of his three runs in 2023, but by no means a poor run, in a hot race that looks strong form already.
He caught the eye the two times prior on turf. Heavily bumped by a rival leaving the stalls, he had to quickly get back into stride, which is difficult over the minimum trip. He ran home really well, with the second fastest final furlong split, bar the impressive winner.
He was bang on the hot pace on his seasonal reappearance at Yarmouth and showed an equally likeable attitude in the closing stages, also running to a strong 75 speed rating.
Ancient Times is 4lb lower now than back in April and in this grade on fast ground over 5 furlongs his past form is seriously competitive. In this smaller field the #6 draw shouldn’t be an issue, he should find it easy enough to cross over the inside rail and chase likely pace setter Cuban Breeze.
10pts win – Ancient Times @ 11/2
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19.50 Ffos Las: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Doha Bu Thaila should enjoy this drop in trip after she seemed to struggle to get home the last time over 7f, especially after chasing the pace keenly.
She travelled best that day at Lingfield and came with a winning move 2f out, but couldn’t get passed her rival, also being pushed toward the rail by said rival, which made her lose momentum.
This looks a strong form with the winner having won subsequently again. She remains on the same mark, which may underestimate her – the full-sister ran in Group 2’s and is currently rated in the 90’s.
She may not turn out that good, headgear is off today and the jockey booking not looking too promising. But she looks overpriced, given the strong handicap debut recently, suggesting there’s certainly more to come.
If Em Jay Kay could return to the form he showed at Newmarket in May he should be too good for this field. He chased home a strong winner, who had the benefit of the rail as well, in a much hotter race than this today.
One has draw a line through the latest effort at Nottingham, though. Em Jay Kay tends to swerve to his right once the gates open, and he got quickly behind, not helped my rivals, and also a draw that’s often a disadvantage over this CD when the race develops eventually on the stands’ side.
He made some nice progress mid-race, on the other hand, suggesting the form is still there. He simply couldn’t keep it up, but then nobody could do that from the lower stalls in that race.
Em Jay Kay remains lightly raced on turf but has got two 2nd places from three turf runs to his name now. The track and fast ground is a slight question mark, whether that’s his thing we’ll find out today.
The 3lb claim of Grace McEntee is a bonus, though. She can just sit tight, utilise the natural speed Em Jay Kay possesses, float down the hill and should have too much in hand, if the gelding handles the conditions.
10pts win – Em Jay Kay @ 4/1
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5.55 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 5.5f
Rothay Park drops in trip and that’s highly intriguing after two most recent effort that suggested he could benefit from moving down.
He showed nice early speed, after slightly awkward starts, especially last time out at Salisbury, and travelled keenly and with enthusiasm, but didn’t get home over 7- and 7-5f respectively.
Especially his most recent performance was noteworthy, as he overcame the widest draw, an awkward start, and then moved quickly forward to push the pace, before kicking on from 3 furlongs out. He managed to hold on for 2nd, which was huge in the context.
Rothay Park remains on the same mark, and is lightly raced enough to suggest the penny may have dropped recently, and over the right trip he can win and be a bit better than 65.
His full-sister was two-times course and distance winner on fast ground here as well. So that adds to his chances.
10pts win – Rothay Park @ 5/1
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7.30 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Betweenthesticks continues to drop in grade and this looks a race for the taking. The gelding isn’t a frequent winner but has shown he’s probably in pretty decent form right now, especially judged on his first two runs this year, back in May at Windsor and in early July at Ripon.
One has to be forgiving, though, given his most recent outing was a disappointing 10/10 finish. Although with excuses. Possibly the race came a bit too soon after that huge Ripon run only 5 days earlier. He was also caught very wide chasing the hot pace, which was basically a death sentence.
Prior at Ripon Betweenthesticks had to settle for 2nd place behind a well-handicapped winner, but he came clear of the rest and showed nice early speed and good attitude.
Whereas he probably needed the run at Windsor in May, and over 6 furlongs, not his optimum, he still ran seriously well off a wide draw having to travel wide behind the pace – again, not ideal at that CD.
He’s down to a mark of 66, ran to a 65 speed rating at Ripon, 4x to 67 speed ratings last season and is obviously not far off that form that saw him placed six times of higher marks.
Although Betweenthesticks has only won on soft on turf, his career-best came on fast ground at Salisbury last season, hence I think today represents an ideal opportunity to score.
Chatty will have a huge chance if he can confirm his last two runs, now that he steps up to a mile. I struggle to catch runners of this yard at the right time, but hope he’s allowed to run on merit.
The 3-year-old gelding can be sluggish at the gate but also quite free. It may be inexperience but he need to start well and be a bit more more relaxed early on in order to get home over a mile.
He should have it in him on pedigree and also judged by the way he finished his last two runs. They were both eyecatching in no uncertain terms.
Awkward away at Redcar in Ma on his seasonal reappearance, he was short of room for a majority of the race but finished fastest under an easy hands and heels ride in the final furlong.
Off to a better start and right on the lead, he was part of a duo/trio that got a bit of a break on the field and he found plenty under pressure even in the final furlong.
He remains on the same mark and looks well-handicapped over a trip that should se him improve, if he settles, as well as for the experience. He’s ideally drawn to be prominent or on the lead once again.
10pts win – Chatty @ 7/2
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4.35 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Jungle Mac ran two incredibly well the last two times in slightly better races and should find this group of rivals a bit easier. He also has the potential draw advantage and could find himself having an easy enough day out at the front, especially if the race would develop toward the stands’ side.
Despite his speedy sire, there can’t be a question about his stamina for the trip. He finished with strong final sectionals the last two times, even when last see at Doncaster where he set a decent pace.
He rallied strongly that day and showed an equally lovely attitude earlier in May over this trip at the Rowley Mile. That day chasing the pace a couple of lengths off, he travelled well but also looked a little clueless how to handle the undulations of the track. He ran home very strongly and both of these last two forms look strong.
Overall Jungle Mac has a nicely progressive profile. He improved with each of his three runs on various metrics. A nice winner at Chelmsford in February. A fine third over 6 furlongs at Kempton. And then the last two big runs.
He improved with each of the last three runs on speed ratings as well: 74 at Newmarket, a career-best 77 last time out; with more improvement to come he looks capable of better still.
10pts win – Jungle Mac @ 7/2
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9.00 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Lilkian ran a few stormers lately and looks seriously well-handicapped here, with the addition of a good 5lb claimer on board as well.
He confirmed his strong form with a superb 2nd three weeks ago at Lingfield when he was caught wide throughout the race and still finished strongly.
That was a nice performance that confirmed the promise he showed in a bunch of runs earlier this year, including running to 61 and 62 speed ratings within his last three runs.
Still a turf maiden, he seems not as good on the grass as on sand. However, if you exclude his form on softish ground, he looks quite a capable runner. He’s also down to a career-lowest mark on turf.
Last season he ran three excellent races on decent ground, including being beaten only by a nose. He’s 4lb lower than his eyecatching third at Brighton in September, when last seen on turf.
Clearly he lost a bit of his early speed these days. But there won’t be a super hot pace here, most likely, so he should be capable of crossing over the stands’ side from the #3 drawn and get to a prominent position.
The fast ground looks perfect, and no rain in sight should stay like that. Lilkian looks to have found a prime chance to win his very first race on turf, although he’s on the drift the morning in the betting and that’s a concern.
I was due a bit of good fortune, and got it: Almaty Star made all and held on, thankfully, in the tightest of photos to win at Chelmsford yesterday afternoon.
A 2 from 2 seemed on the cards when Brassavola kicked for home but she couldn’t quite sustain her effort and finished 2nd. A good day nonetheless, which I’m more than happy with, given there weren’t too many good days this year, so far.
That was close, but in the end it's Almaty Star who denies stablemate, Emperor Spirit to land the spoils in the Esprit Couture 1er Cru Handicap for trainer, Robert Cowell.@cowellracingpic.twitter.com/47nvZdfsl2
— Chelmsford City Racecourse (@ChelmsfordCRC) June 20, 2024
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5.40 Ascot: Group 2 – King Edward VII Stakes, 1m 4f
A hot renewal and the pace should be on. You have to stay the trip, but at the same you’ll need to travel and find a good position. I reckon anything from well off the pace won’t feature.
A prime candidate who possesses these capabilities is the Aiden O’Brien trained Agenda. He is a bit on the drift this morning in the betting and can be backed at even bigger prices than the 7’s I took – I remain cautiously confident that he’ll run a big race, nonetheless.
He caught the eye on his two runs this season. Seriously green and raw at Dundalk when he returned from a break, he travelled off the pace and wider than ideal after an awkward start. He showed a nice bit of acceleration mid-race to get to the front and kicked clear in the closing stages.
He deserved his spot in the Chester Vase and ran a huge race I felt. He went quickly to the front and winded up the tempo from 5 furlongs out, having many of his rivals in trouble not much alter. He kicked for home three furlongs out and was only beaten by a potentially brilliant winner.
Agenda didn’t quite look at home at the ever turning Chester, I thought. He also hit the rails, becoming unbalanced, about 1.5f out which didn’t help.
He’s lightly raced with plenty of upside, improved with each of his three runs and showed that he can travel and change gears. I’m surprised he goes here and not to the Irish Derby as that could have been an ideal race.
Saying that, Ascot will be an equally suitable track. His draw should allow him to get to a prominent position quickly, perhaps following his stable mate Chief Little Rock in #1.
Whether he truly stays the trip is a small question mark, given the speed on the dam side and the fact he couldn’t quite sustain his challenge at Chester. But then Galileo as a stamina influence will help and the decent ground should suit.
Almaty Star was caught only in the dying stages at Lingfield earlier this month. She stays over the minimum trip with the cheek-pieces applied for a second time, able to race off the same mark.
She must have a cracking chance from the #1 draw here, even though there is tons of pace competition, it must be said. She caught the eye the last two times now, as her previous Windsor 2nd was also a strong front-running performance.
The filly has great early speed, which is vital over this course and distance, so she can utilise the draw to its fullest. She’s clearly in great form and a mark of 75 is not quite her ceiling. She ran to higher speed ratings in the past.
Obviously her win record is poor, but down to this career-lowest rating, with the top draw and a CD she finished second off 5lb higher last autumn, she’s got a prime chance in a race where few appear overly well-handicapped.
10pts win – Almaty Star @ 5/1
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4.50 Chelmsford: Class 5 – Handicap, 1m 2f
Brassavola looks quite interesting back over this course and distance with a decent draw to attack the race from. She got quite close back in November where she was still leading at half a furlong from home.
Back then she had to overcome a wide draw and did a lot to get across and into a prominent racing position. She edged closer to the leader bit by bit and took it up entering the home straight only to get caught fairly late.
It was a somewhat similar story a few weeks ago at Lingfield where she moved forward from a wider than ideal draw, caught wide early on, before getting to the lead. She hit the home straight in front before getting tired in the final furlong.
Truth told, there are some questions about her stamina credentials over this trip. However, her pretty decent full-sister won in seriously deep ground over a mile and these last two times it was possibly the wide draw that was to her detriment.
With a better draw here, and not much pace competition, she should much easier get to the front. Blinkers fitted should her her to be sharp out of the gate too. This track can ride in favour of those up with the pace, even over these longer trips, especially when the pace is slow, it’s nearly impossible to make up ground.
The yard is in poor form, but hit the crossbar a number of times, so hopefully a turnaround is just around the corner. A good jockey booking will help too.
This family tends to do quite well on the sand, hence off a career-lowest mark Brassavola looks more than capable of winning over this course and distance.
Great run by Henry Longfellow in the St James’s Palace Stakes to finish a gallant runner-up – what a fantastic race that was. Beaten, as close as it was, by a better horse on the day.
Rosallion couldn’t have been more impressive, though. He travelled, he quickened – that was impressive! A rematch would be intriguing: Rosallion had the better draw, Henry had to be used up a bit more in the early stages to get to a prominent position and was a bit keen as well.
However, I feel Henry Longfellow may have more scope for improvement if he moves up to 10 furlongs. You’d think the Eclipse could be an ideal race for him. But we know his stable has a prime candidate for that specific race already.
Possibly the Irish Champion Stakes? It’s going to be interesting to see where Ballydoyle routes Henry next. He should win a Group 1 this season.
No good fortune last night for my other two selections: Port And Starburd was incredibly well-backed, went off 2/1 fav… just to miss the break badly. Barnsnape Boy looks a lost hope, I’m afraid.
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4.25 Ascot: Group 1 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, 1m 2f
Perhaps backing anything else than Auguste Rodin is hoping in vain. Because if he puts his best foot forward he’ll be too good for this field.
On the better ground he likes most, over this trip, he looks bound for a return to his best form. Certainly if he’s anywhere near the form he showed in the Irish Champion Stakes, the clear standout piece here, he’ll be tough to beat.
I reckon with a stable mate not drawn too far away, they’ll try to give him a nice lead to chase, somewhat similar to Leopardstown. He should strip fitter for his seasonal reappearance, a fine 2nd behind White Birch.
Nonetheless, given he’s shown be not the most trustworthy, he can be taken on. I’m not yet fully sold on Inspiral over 10 furlongs, despite her Santa Anita success. She acts on fast ground, though, that’s as much as we know. She could find herself too far back in this race, possibly, though.
The value in the race in my book is clearly the French filly Blue Rose Cen. From the #4 draw she’ll be nicely positioned, as she usually starts well, and she can lead or track the pace closely.
Her seasonal reappearance caught my eye. She found herself in a pocket from 2 furlongs out, and couldn’t get out until it was too late. She ran home well enough. One would think she wasn’t fully tuned up for that race.
Over the 1 mile 2(ish) furlongs trip her record is strong.: two Group 1 wins against her own sex last year, and an arguably unfortunate 4th in the Nassau Stakes.
Her Diane form, where she achieved a super 104 speed rating, gives her a cracking chance, if she could reproduce it. Obvious question mark is the ground. She never raced on anything this fast.
However, I don’t think her action is too pronounced, and certainly on pedigree she should love it. Her dam won a Grade 1 on proper firm ground in the US and Churchill is a Group 1 winner on good to firm. She’ll be fine, more likely than not.
Whether Blue Rose Cen is good enough against the boys at the top level remains to be seen. She has to be at her very best to have a chance. This field doesn’t look all that deep, though, if you take Auguste Rodin out, given my reservations about Inspiral.
She’ll be in a prime spot, most likely, as the field turns for home and then will be given every chance to run her race. At the prices, I’m prepared to run the risk.
10pts win – Blue Rose Cen @ 10/1
…….
6.50 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
Strong Johnson seems to hit some form again and may have found an ideal race to score today. He had three solid runs since January, especially the last two since returning to turf off a small break.
At York in a hot Handicap he was still somewhat outclassed, although he showed lovely early speed. Last time at Ripon he showed good pace once again, and ran well for a long time over a trip that’s probably a stretch in that grade, especially if the pace is hot.
He dropped to a mark of 77 now, and is back over the minimum trip, down in class as well. The last time he ran in class 5 he won nicely at Redcar, and followed up a few weeks later off a 79 mark.
Those performances aren’t that long ago. He hit decent speed ratings regularly in 2023 and his last three performances suggest he’s ready to hit the same hights again.
Any juice in the ground won’t be an issue given his ground versatile record. The #1 draw is the only small negative. But I hope, given Little Melody is drawn in #3, that the pace will develop on his side, so he can follow her for a lead closely and Ryan Sexton can press the button 2f out.
10pts win – Strong Johnson @ 4/1
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7.50 Nottingham: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f
I loved the recent run from Standbackandlook at Leicester. A significant improvement to his to prior Handicap runs. A change in tactics made all the difference.
He bumped into a well-handicapped winner, but also wasn’t helped by his wide draw, that saw him travelled wide for the first two furlongs and spending plenty of energy to get to the front.
He travelled well and gradually winded up the tempo, eventually finishing a clear second best on the day. He was possibly somewhat flattered given the sedate nature of the pace in the middle part of the race, one could argue, though.
But he showed a nice attitude running hard under pressure and looks better than his current 55 rating, now only in his 4th handicap start, with positive tactics.
His family produced plenty of winners, mostly over middle-distances, and the dam should offset the speedy sire, who also has got winners over 10 furlongs already.
The pace scenario looks potentially muddling today, and that will play into Standbackandlook’ hands. He can simply move forward, lead or sit second, nicely placed, and could have too much in hand off his current 55 rating.
Kiss And Run overcame a shaky start at Windsor last night to win with a bit of authority in the end. With a better break she would have won with plenty of hand in that race.
Kiss And Run goes the central route and is duly rewarded in the opener at @WindsorRaces, scoring with @ONaillers2010 on board.
Another winner for June. A rollercoaster, after a poor weekend; at least I back some winners again and keep it an open month to finish finally in green again.
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4.25 Ascot: Group 1 – St James’s Palace Stakes, 1m
This looks a deep renewal. Multiple Classic winners in the field and a good pace looks assured to make it a proper race.
Notable Speech heads the market a short 5/4 favourite. You can see why: his impressive runaway victory at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas was visually and on the clock seriously arresting.
He clearly profited from a hot pace that day and not getting involved in the early pace battle too. Travelling toward the rear on the outside, he was well placed and made smooth progress to kick away from subsequent Irish 2000 Guineas winner Rosallion.
Unbeaten in four starts now, of course he must have a prime chance today. There is no value in his price, though. Ascot is a different track, this race may pan out differently, and the ground is quite a bit faster as well. Notable Speech is the likeliest winner at this stage, but perhaps a bit short, given the depth of this field.
You would think Newmarket runner-up Rosallion can finish a bit closer this time. He got a little bit earlier involved, notably travelling strongly, at Newmarket, and finished a gallant second. He got his Classic win a few weeks later at the Curragh with an impressive finish to deny stable mate Haatam.
The slight knock on him is the fact he’s yet to run a speed rating 100+ in six career starts. He contested 5 Listed or Group races, though. Ample opportunity, actually.
Sometimes that’s down to circumstances, but I wonder whether we let visuals dictate how we perceive the chances of Rosallion.
French Guineas winner Metropolitan profited from a low draw and a perfect racing position where he got first run on Dancing Gemini, the eventual runner-up.
Fast ground is a concern, and I need to see him do this again before I believe he’s that good. He clearly enjoyed the run of the race at Longchamp.
Unquestionable was beaten in the Irish 2000 Guineas by over six lengths. But he needed the run, according to his trainer. He looked like that, for sure.
A progressive juvenile, who landed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, he should come on for the run, love the fast ground and has a nice draw. He could outrun his price.
Alyanaabi ran a strong race in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Probably on the wrong side of the pace, he travelled without cover and closer than ideal to the hot pace. He did well to finish as close as he did, but was keen early on and needs to settle today, if any chance for a finish in the money.
Almaqam has won twice this year. He steps up in class in no uncertain terms. The quality could be there, for all he’s got plenty to find, not least on speed ratings, where a best 74 won’t cut it here today.
Progressive French raider Darlinghurst doesn’t look the right sort today, given fast ground and a mile, judged by his profile.
That leaves one horse to talk about: Henry Longfellow. No surprise, he’s one of the horses to follow this year.
His seasonal reappearance at Longchamp in the French 2000 Guineas was a total nightmare. Whether by design – tactical error – or necessity, he got shuffled back soon after the start, making his decent draw redundant. Halfway through he received a little check and fell even further back.
With only one horse behind him over 2 furlongs from home he had no chance to finish in the placings even. Not the clearest of passages either, nonetheless from 1.5 out he ran home nicely to suggest he has trained on.
The yard keeps the faith and repeatably said they still believe he’s a really good colt. And so do I. Today is a new day, different race, different track, different ground.
The better ground should be a clear advantage. He’s yet to race on ground this fast, but his dam won a Group 1 on fast ground, and sons of Dubawi usually don’t mind the type of underfoot conditions.
He should be a better 3-year-old than he was a juvenile. And he was a top-class juvenile. Visually and on the clock he’s been nothing short of impressive in his three career runs last season.
The way he quickened on debut and next time in the Futurity Stakes was highly promising. He subsequently made top-class 2-year-old Bucanero Fuerte look like a lowly rated claimer in the National Stakes.
He achieved two 100+ speed ratings in those last two races in 2023. The sign of potential superstar, if he could train on. He has to improve today, of course, given the depth of this field.
I’m mostly concerned about the draw. It may invite Ryan Moore to settle for a position off the pace once again. However, I feel Henry Longfellow has stamina beyond this trip and would benefit from tracking the pace, no matter how hot it’s going to be.
Depending how the race pans out in the early stages, Moore may have to settle off the pace, no matter what he would want to do in an ideal world. But I hope he tries to get to a position no further back than midfield or 4-5 lengths off the lead, to be in with a shot to swing around the home bend and go for gold three furlongs out.
10pts win – Henry Longfellow @ 9/2
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7.15 Beverley: Class 6 Handicap, 7.5f
Port And Starburd ran a huge race ten days ago over this course and distance in a slightly stronger race. She wasn’t helped early on by a rival who came swinging around the outside to complete for the lead and it seemed to set her alight.
She travelled strongly chasing the leader eventually, possibly was even ahead with half a furlong to go, but had to pay tribute and was beaten by two rivals with more restraint.
The filly is 0/5 but can race off the same mark. A repeat of that level of performance will see her go really close once again, especially as he may bounce out and get an easy lead this time.
She clearly improved for moving up in trip and has every chance on pedigree to stay this distance, perhaps even an additional half furlong, to stretch out to a mile.
Slight concern is the soft ground. This most recent run came on a fast surface; on the other hand, on debut, she finished a strong 4th on soft ground.
10pts win – Port And Starburd @ 9/2
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8.30 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
Barnsnape Boy looks underestimated here if allowed to run on merit. Still a maiden, this filly caught the eye the last two times thanks to her aggressive front-running style.
Ten days ago she set a hot pace from a wide draw. She had the field on the stretch and was still in the mix entering the final furlong. She must be in good form and clearly on winnable mark in order to that.
She was way too fast in the first half of the race at Carlisle at the end of May where she led until the final furlong once again.
The fact she acts on fast ground is a positive as Brighton and fast ground over this trip lends itself to blast away and play “catch me if you can”. She’s another couple of pounds lower today, in a weak race where she could be able to dominate from her draw.
I like the fact that a stronger jockey is in the saddle. It’s also Trevor Whelan’s only ride today. The price drift is a worry, of course, and if she’s tried to be restraint we’ll know our fate right away. But if allowed to move to the front, she could be hard to peg back.
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