Love Destination and Global Tycoon are two intriguing eyecatchers here. Previously flagged Tomas Equinas is also in the race and remains of interest back in handicap company off a 50 OR.
Nonetheless, Global Tycoon is the one I am most interested in. This pretty lightly raced gelding drops down to the 7f trip, which should suit as it will help him to settle and relax a bit better than he did over a mile .
I quite liked his recent comeback run at Southwell over a mile having returned from 274 days off the track, though. He quickly moved forward to grab the lead, not uncontested for the most part, though.
He was keen in the first half of the race but then travelled well enough turning for home, before he hung over 1f out, which was also when he finally relinquished the lead for good.
Perhaps he needed the run and that was a reason why dropped out badly in the final 200 yards but I’m neither sold on Global Tycoon truly staying a mile.
He won well at Kempton over 7f on handicap debut last autumn off a mark of 53, doing so quite comfortably, suggesting he was certainly ahead of his mark that day, even though the form didn’t amount to much, in truth.
He remains still lightly raced. This here is going to be only his seventh career run, his fourth handicap start and second time over 7 furlongs.
He’ll makes tons of appeal off his reassessed 56 mark, especially with a solid 5lb claiming apprentice in the saddle.
Cheek-pieces are an interesting addition that may address any tendencies to hang in the closing stages. It’s not quite clear how the pace will unfold here but I reckon Global Tycoon won’t be too far away and can lead, if required.
Off to a good start in April: Emperor Spirit (11/1, SP 10/1) won his Lingfield race that surprisingly went nearly exactly as outlined beforehand and provided the second winner for the month.
Even though, I must admit, halfway through the race I felt he went too hard from the front. Turns out Jamie Spencer judged it to perfection as Emperor Spirit held on (for dear life) but had enough left in the tank to get home.
Only ten minutes later a bit of a downer: Reach was a major disappointment. She fell away quickly in the closing stages and never looked like winning. I fancied her a lot, and am prepared to give her one more chance.
…….
5.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 6f
Inchbae was denied by the late charging Jenny Renn last month at this track, although over the two furlongs shorter 1m 4f distance. These two meet again here in this Handicap for Amateur riders and seem to be the horses to focus on.
The step up in trip swings it toward Inchbae for me, who should appreciate the extra distance. There is plenty of stamina in her pedigree and she’s one you’d hope she can improve with age and experience.
Still a maiden, but she showed promise toward the end of last season, especially when runner-up at Chelmsford over 10 furlongs off 54. She changed yards afterwards and didn’t run as bad as the pure form suggests on stable debut at Dundalk.
She improved dramatically for that outing next time at Wolverhampton. obviously a tricky sort, she didn’t see the late effort from Jenny Renn coming on the outside from back of the field there and didn’t have time to respond, I believe.
This 1m 6f contest looks an even poorer race, with very few proper dangers. The #13 isn’t ideal on paper but unlikely to pose issues. There isn’t much pace here, so I’d expect her to move across quickly to establish potentially a soft lead.
She may have enough speed to bring it home once competent amateur rider Eireann Cagney kicks-on from about 3.5 furlongs from home – the way I envision it with naïve hope.
First winner for the month on Wednesday: Bang On The Bell (9/2; 4/1 SP) won his race at Wolverhampton. Although, not quite in the manner I had anticipated as he blew the start and had do it the hard way. Thankfully, he held on and showed grit in the final furlong.
Dog Fox was withdrawn, unfortunately; after misbehaving in the stalls; there’ll be another day.
Sharon Macready refused to settle as they tried to drop her in. I could have seen that coming. She’s done it before. Like…. always. Even over the minimum trip. Backing her over 6 furlongs was simply a poor decision.
……….
3.15 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 6f
The “All-Weather Vase Sprint Handicap” looks one of those uncompetitive-competitive handicaps. Plenty of runners, more or less similar ability, plenty of chances without any real standout and very few well-handicapped ones, if any.
Hence I’m prepared to give Emperor Spirit a solid shout at this, who seems overpriced in this field, for a myriad of reasons.
For one, it’s only two runs back that he seriously caught the eye at Newcastle:
He grabbed the lead promptly, set a red hot pace, but was pestered by a rival throughout, yet travelled strongly, before drifting across the track as he got really tired in the closing stages and was eventually overpowered by two horses from off the pace to finish third.
That was a strong performance and rock solid form, and his subsequent and most recent run doesn’t distract from it in my view – he was well beaten when last seen but that was a hot 5 furlong sprint on his debut for a new yard. No doubt the minimum trip is too sharp.
He ran pretty well all winter, though; especially over this course and distance in early December off 5lb higher than he’s currently rated, going off the 15/8 favourite, only beaten late in the day – doing so with cheek pieces fitted, which are on here again after an absence recently.
Subsequent form did suggest he ran not far below that level of form; although he’s a horse who finds it tough to get his head in front, hence he has fallen ever so slightly down to a 85 mark now.
He ran to higher speed ratings in the past, so there is an argument to be made that he’s weighted to win.
The race may develop to his advantage: he could establish an easy lead and good early rhythm and subsequently tough to peg back for a third career victory. He’s got the benefit of the #1 draw and there’s not too much pace pressure especially as other prominent horses are wider drawn.
10pts win – Emperor Spirit @ 11/1
…….
3.25 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 3.5f
On the basis of ground, trip and handicap mark one can rule out more than half the field. Gastronomy seems the default favourite given his unexposed profile for strong connections, but is clearly poor value given the short price with questions to answers on ground and trip.
Nonetheless, the one I have an eye on is the 5-yeaer-old mare Reach, who could be quite well handicapped here.
She’s one I flagged in the Handicappers To Follow piece, although I didn’t expect to find such an ideal opportunity so soon after publishing the list.
Reach is very lightly raced for her age. She created a strong impression on her first two starts before winning in emphatic fashion at Pontefract in autumn, when upped to 12 furlongs.
She travelled strongly on Handicap debut subsequently, but faded badly over the shorter 10 furlongs; perhaps she paid for having three runs in rather quick succession.
The mare looks all stamina and should have more to offer off 74 going up in trip again, especially with cut in the ground.
I’ve got little doubts about her race fitness. I expect her to be ready to go. Connections couldn’t have hoped for a better race to kick-off the season.
In an ideal world Bang On The Bell would race off his soon to be revised mark, or even a couple of pounds lower, but I feel even off 71 he’s got a fine chance to win in this race against beatable opposition, especially with the race possibly to pan out in his favour.
I don’t judge him harshly on the way he dropped away last time he was seen. That day he had to overcame the widest draw – which he did – but was then way too keen in the first half of the race over 6 furlongs that was a stretch.
He’s better judged on his penultimate run over this course and distance as he encounters it here, when once again he enjoyed a perfect and quick start from the widest draw to get to the leaders right before the field entered the turn.
He pushed a strong pace as part of trio, before getting quite tired in the home straight once again. That looks good form, and was an improvement on his comeback run prior.
In my view the last two runs warrant an upgrade. In that light, it’s clear he’ll enjoy the return to the minimum trip, this time without the disadvantage of a wide draw.
There’s only one other true pace horse in this small field, so it won’t be any hassle to get to the front. It should help that the other possible pace setter, Glorious Charmer – who doesn’t seem well handicapped now – is going to be there to help push a good pace,.
This scenario in turn may help Bang On The Bell to relax a bit better and then enjoy possibly the run of the race turning for home. He ran to a 72 speed rating back in August over this C&D, and 70 in December over 5f at Chelmsford – therefore he’s clearly capable to run to the level required to win here.
10pts win – Bang On The Bell @ 9/2
……
4.55 Nottingham: Class 6 Handicap, 10f
A minefield of unknowns but there is no question Dog Fox is the most intriguing one here. He’s one I flagged up in my 3-year-old handicappers to follow list and feel this represents a superb opportunity to get off the mark.
This confidence may seem misplaced given Dog Fox showed nothing in three runs as a juvenile. However, those runs came over trips that were clearly on the sharp side.
He’s bred to enjoy middle-distance trips and is expected to improve dramatically in handicap company going up in trip. The majority of his dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs, as his sire Cityscape has a 10.1 stamina index to offer.
An opening mark of 63 looks stiff judged purely on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.
The soft ground won’t be an issue I reckon. The sire and dam enjoyed cut in the ground during their respective racing careers.
10pts win – Dog Fox @ 3/1
……
5.00 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Am I really prepared to follow Sharon Macready over the cliff? I certainly am! This filly is hugely frustrating but no doubt has some talent and is well handicapped if she can finally relax a bit better. She’s ready to win, sooner rather than later.
Going up in trip does seem counterintuitive. But I do believe the trip doesn’t really matter. She stays the distance as she is a proven distance winner and ‘all’ it takes is her to relax in the early parts a bit better. Without dropping her head she won’t get home even over three furlongs.
I can make excuses for her recent run at Southwell. It was as strange race, although one that looks strong the way the form worked out. Sharon Macready had an award start, also bumped rival, was a huge price on the day and never looked like the same enthusiastic individual she did prior.
I liked those three earlier runs this year – she showed often blistering early speed but made life difficult for herself. She is now down to a 60 rating – clearly she is better than that, also given her full-sister has multiple wins at 60+ to her name,
The race could work out well from a pace scenario. The low draw will help her to get to the front. She may enjoy an easy enough lead. She may hard to peg back over this course and distance if she finds a good rhythm.
It wasn’t the start I hoped for the new flat season: King’s Lynn badly squeezed early on, his race was basically done there and then. Didn’t get the clearest of runs until the race was over either… one to mark up and keep in the tracker.
Anyway, the flat kicks into gear properly this week. It’s going to be a few busy weeks and months ahead… But before that I’ve done the usual house keeping, and updated theP&L sheet for March here, including SPs now.
Always a bit easier to do this work if the month turned out to be a green one… can do with a few more of them, of course.
I’m heading to the sand for Monday’s selection, though. A familiar name is back there over her ideal course and distance….
……..
5.15 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Sir Rodneyredblood remains a strong chance even under a penalty, having shown tremendous form lately. I backed him myself when he won over the minimum trip at Chelmsford last month.
Nonetheless, he’s now rated very much in range of what requires best effort for him to overcome these days, in a hot race, with a wider than ideal draw and pace pressure likely to be applied.
Bobby On The beat and Porfin have fair shouts on their winter form, but Come On Girl is the one I’m most interested in, given it was back in January that she caught the eye in no uncertain terms.
That day she wasn’t advantaged by the way the race developed, yet she finished much the fastest in the home straight despite turning wider than ideal.
She followed up with another massive run, then over 7 furlongs, when only caught in the final half furlong, after doing too much too soon.
Subsequently out of her depth in class 4 when last seen, she’s now back in her ideal grade, class 6; 0-65, over 6 furlongs.
Pace looks guaranteed, her #4 draw gives Oisin Murphy in the saddle plenty of options; his booking seems a clear indicator that connections expect her to run well.
She was in fine form all winter, ran to 59 and 60 speed ratings during this All-Weather season and looks ripe for a 5th course and distance victory.
After a small break on a sunny island in the Atlantic Ocean I’m (nearly) back for the start of the flat season!
March was finally a green month again, having produced a 110pts profit; 4 winners and seven placed selections…. something positive at the end of a tough winter on the sand.
Thankfully, the grind of the All-Weather is over (well, probably not really, for another couple of weeks) and the grind of the flat beings here once again.
………
3.00 Doncaster: Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes, 6f
Intriguing contest. A handful could have a proper go in this listed contest, but the ground should be key to narrow down the real contenders.
Current favourite Asjad definitely stays the trip and beyond in deep ground as shown in his last three fine runs in autumn 2022, including over this course and distance. He goes well fresh, but has failed to convince on speed ratings in 12 career runs so far.
El Caballo remains a sprinter with plenty of upside. If he’s ready from a long lay-off he should be the one to beat. A Grade 2 winner last May at Haydock, he wasn’t seen since Royal Ascot.
That’s a question mark, as well as the unknown whether he can show the same level of ability to show on deep ground.
Fast Response should enjoy the soft ground as he proved winning a Listed contest over this course and distance when last seen in November. Again he’s one who looks up against it on speed ratings – if the main principles fire.
Commanche Falls is pretty ground independent. He’s got a fine record fresh, and looks a key player if in the same form as last season; however, he’s yet to win outside Handicap company and his very best came on no less than good to soft.
Ehraz remains progressive and has been gelded during is off-season. He’d be seriously interesting on better ground. In soft conditions he may struggle, though, today.
Having said that, King’s Lynn is the one I’m siding with at given prices. He looks clearly overpriced, if fit on his seasonal reappearance.
The fact he ran quite well coming off a break in the past is promising. He’s the finished article by now, so if he can run to last seasons form, he should have a major say in the outcome of this race.
This is easier than his final assignment in 2022, when well beaten in the Champions Sprint. He competed predominantly in hot water last year, but was highly competitive in lesser grades, including when winning the Grade 2 Temple Stakes.
He runs consistently to a good level on speed ratings; his career-best effort over this Doncaster course and distance that came in the Listed Wentworth Stakes in November 2021 makes him a prime contender today, in theory.
Possibly the minimum trip is his optimum, but he obviously stays 6 furlongs, no bother, and loves soft ground. With that in mind he seems seriously overpriced at current exchange prices (8s readily available) although the scenario of a weak pace would count against him, truth told.
Two winners from three selections on Thursday – and the third beaten by a head! It could have been the sweetest of hat-tricks.
No complaints. Saisons D’Or went off a lot shorter than the price I got…. the money was on and he clearly is in peak form the way he fought back for a seriously game victory at Southwell.
Get Stuck In got the pretty easy run from the front, as hoped, and had too much in hand. It’s also fair to say Leabaland had a few pounds in hand but Seamie Heffernan went pretty hard early on, and that perhaps was the reason getting beaten in the dying strides.
Who am I to complain, though? Am not. Any day with two winners is a brilliant day in my book. It gets March firmly back into the green, as it has been 5 winners to date for the month, and we’re only halfway through it.
By my own calculation, one more solid priced winner will solidify a healthy profit. I wouldn’t mind it this one comes today, in the big race…
………
3.30 Cheltenham: Grade 1 Gold Cup, 3m2½f
The blue ribband of jump racing has been kind to me, betting wise. This year, though, shapes like a hot, and tricky edition.
It stems from the fact that half the field appear on more or less the same good level of form. While a few select have clear standout form, but serious questions to answer.
The one on many lips, is Galopin Des Champs. The favourite, and a short price for a horse with stamina to prove.
No doubt, an incredibly talented individual; unbeaten in seven of his last eight starts; and that one blip, was desperately unlucky in the Turners when he seemed to have the race won, if not for falling at the last.
This season he’s a much better settled horse, jumps really well and won the John Durkan as well as the Irish Gold Cup by a combined 21 lengths!
But at the current price I have to take him. There are valid concerns over his stamina, especially on deep ground. The Irish Gold Cup proved little. He sprinted away from Stattler in a test of speed more than anything. He has won on proper soft ground but is it his preferred going? I doubt it.
Stable mate Stattler is an intriguing contender. Available at 20/1+ on the exchanges; he’s a serious contender to run late into the placings, I believe. He’s not shown quite enough on ratings, to suggest he’s truly a Gold Cup winner. But the deep ground will help to make it stamina test, which could suit.
Minella Indo ran a huge race in second place last year. He hit the front too soon, and had nothing more to give once A Plus Tard sprinted past him. But it was a strong performance, good enough in other years to win a Gold Cup, I believe.
He looked good on his return at Tramore in early January. We haven’t seen him since, though. The vibes from the yard are bullish, but I see it as a negative that he didn’t go Leopardstown as he did the last two years when he won- and finished runner-up in the Gold Cup.
Grand National hero Noble Yeats is rightly in the mix. The emphasis on stamina will be to his advantage. I’m not sure whether he’s truly good enough to win a Gold Cup, though.
Protektorat and Royal Pagaille have shouts to run into the placings on their best form. Ahoy Senor with a clear round of jumping could be dangerous. But there is no question the gap to the the top three in the betting market is real.
I mentioned Galopin Des Champsbefore and the fact I’m happy to take him on. I’d be certain he wouldn’t be A Plus Tard, if the impressive 2022 Gold Cup winner would return to the same level as twelve month ago.
Clearly his prospects have improved since DeBromehead yard looks in good health this week. You would hope whatever problems materialised at Haydock about half a year ago now, and the issues at Leopardstown, are well and truly fixed.
It’s shame we haven’t seen him since. No matter what, this can’t have been an ideal preparation for the biggest race of the year. He’s a year older, too; having been at the Festival numerous times before, how much more is left in the tank?
I can take the leap of faith required to back A Plus Tard; even though I do so last year and those memories are still vivid.
But there is no question in mind the only horse I can back at this stage is Bravemansgame. If I would have come to this conclusion earlier than this week I could have gotten bigger prices. But I still think he’s overpriced.
Ever since that impressive King George victory was I contemplating for and against Bravemansgame’s prospects to stay up the Hill to win a Gold Cup.
The positives outweigh the negatives ultimately, though.
Bravemansgame won that day at Kempton in the most impressive style. He powered home, staying on strongly, found more and more for pressure, when everyone else fell away.
He gave ground away all the time – perhaps by design. Jumped fluently, travelled powerfully for a long time, and was brave and gutsy; a bit flat footed around the final bend, he kept going, came back on the bridle and outbattled his rivals.
Yes, perhaps, one could argue, the winning margin was flattered by L’Homme Presse who unseated his rider at the last. But he had the race won by then, I firmly believe, in any case.
That performance is by far the strongest this season, on all sorts of ratings. Whether Bravemansgame can run to the same level of form over this extreme test of stamina on deep ground is the key question.
His best form comes on flatter, galloping tracks. His sole visit to Cheltenham ended in heavy defeat. Paul Nicholls is adamant that Bravemansgame is a different, stronger, more mature horse these days, though.
Therefore, he deserves his chance to go for a Gold Cup. He seems to posesses the right tools to cope with the demands of the race. But there is only one way to find out whether he truly has got it to win the Gold Cup. At given prices my money is riding on him.
I loved the return off 139 days from Saisons D’Or at Newcastle two weeks ago. He travelled well for a long time and seemed the one going best with less than 1.5 furlongs to go, ready to win the race. He fell away in the final furlong, though.
He ran to a good 59 speed rating, not too far off his current handicap mark. There is every reason to believe he can improve for the run. His spring form is usually really strong, he tends to run really well in the first two-three runs after a winter break.
Now an eight-year-old he isn’t getting any younger, but he’s fallen to a really good mark as he also has dropped into class 6.
This doesn’t look a strong race, hence I think the #7 draw may not be too much an issue to overcome. The yard tends to avoid this track with fancied runners at all, though. That’s a concern.
10pts win – Saisons D’Or @ 11.5/1
…….
8.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 1m
Plenty of unknowns here but one wo is most likely to improve significantly from his three starts as a juvenile is Get Stuck In.
He caught my eye in his final two runs last year; at Kempton and then Newmarket, he ran with tons of credit in pretty hot contests. What I loved most was the attitude he showed on those occasions.
Not only did he look straightforward enough, but also went forward, and tried really hard when challenged heavily in the closing stages.
Going up in trip to a mile can only be a positive, given his pedigree. He’s been gelded, which in itself may bring out additional improvement.
What gives me plenty of hope that this lad is ready to roll is the fact Mark/Charlie Johnston’s 4-year-olds have an excellent record on their reappearance off a break on the All-Weather.
Further to this, the pace in this race could be a muddy. But he likes to go forward, most likely, and could enjoy an uncontested lead. He may be hard to peg back.
10pts win – Get Stuck In @ 7/2
…….
8.20 Dundalk: 47-70 Handicap, 1m
Leabaland must be one of the unluckiest horses on Dundalk circuit given this winter. He’s often ran a lot better than bare form would read; one who definitely seems to find the trouble more often than not, has also been unfortunate with wide draws.
Each of his last five runs since he entered my radar in mid-October produced their own drama, and it wasn’t different when last seen in February over this course and distance as he just couldn’t get that the clear run, from entering the home straight until it was game over.
He looks clearly capable of his slightly revised mark of 60. Especially this time he enjoys a low draw, which will be a huge advantage. He’s a solid starter, and can just move forward, see how things fall, but in any case should be in a position to get a clear run this time.
There shouldn’t be any excuses this time. If he’s good enough this time is the day…. I think he’s good enough; added bonus having Seamie Heffernan in the saddle, who rode Leabaland to his last victory, ten month ago.
Hence I think these current prices are total bonkers. Of course, if things look too good to be true, often they aren’t true. We’ll find out tomorrow night.
Candy Warhol was seriously well backed on Monday, sadly she refused to settle and was keen for the majority of the race. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away.
Perhaps she needs some headgear. I wouldn’t lose hope quite yet and may be prepared to give her another chance next time.
All eyes will be on Cheltenham on Tuesday. I’ll settle in front of the TV with a good coffee and enjoy the races. But won’t be getting involved from a betting perspective.
Yes, I have a few fancies. But ultimately nothing strong enough to suggest it would be a good bet. My monetary interest will be riding on the Southwell Tapeta, instead.
…….
5.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
With a top amateur in the saddle Biplane looks ominous off a 62 mark. Judged on his very best effort over this C/D last summer he’s theoretically the one to beat. But he’s only ever ran once in 24 career runs to that level of form.
He will have to be a that level here, though, because I reckon the lightly raced Streetscape could have a few pounds in hand after a highly promising comeback- and first Handicap run last time out at Newcastle.
He moved forward to track the early pace until he started to challenge the leaders from over 2 furlongs out. He was gutsy right to the line but beaten by winner and second from the rear of the field in the end.
I thought he showed great attitude there, as he settled well early on and looked like trying seriously hard in the closing stages to keep the challengers at bay.
The race finished in a sprint, which can’t have been to his advantage, I believe, as he should stay a bit further on pedigree.
For now a mile should be fine. This is only going to be his 5th career-run and from his low draw I expect him to be a bit more aggressive this time to ensure it’s a solid gallop that will suit him.
The 3lb claim of Alice Keighley should be solid value. She usually sits on good chances, and posts a seriously strong record especially for this yard.
With that in mind, this lad should have a cracking chance and too much to offer of his rivals in this race.
10pts win – Streetscape @ 5/2
……
8.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Hot race. Autumn Angel has probably been leniently treated by the handicapper for her latest course and distance success. The issue I see: she will need a bit of luck and a clear run to catch those who inevitably will be any number of lengths in front as they turn for home.
Papa Cocktail is obviously of huge interest to me. A horse I am tracking since summer last year; he caught the eye once again in dramatic fashion last time; he’s almost certainly seriously well-handicapped. But I want him over 7 furlongs. He’s not one to trust and this shorter trip isn’t his best.
Putting any faith into a 15-race maiden may not be the wisest move. But Whiteandblue was a huge eyecatcher last time out as well, and I couldn’t be happier seeing her over 6 furlongs round a bend.
Last time at Newcastle she moved quickly forward and set a red hot pace – they went faster over the first half than the class 4 Handicap over 5 furlongs on the same card. She continued to lead until deep inside the final furlong but eventually was overwhelmed.
A huge run. And a career best speed rating – she had enough time to recover from the effort, and has been left untouched by the handicapper. The winner of that race went on to give the form a strong look having won subsequently again.
Since having changed yards her form has gradually improved and it looks like the penny may have dropped.
From the #6 draw she won’t have much trouble getting to the lead, or at least following it closely. Ireland’s Eye will move forward as well, most likely. I think this can only hep her to settle, having a bit of company early on.
Of course there is a chance that they go too hard once again. But I hope the turn will slow them down that little bit more than it was possibly at the straight Newcastle last time.
The race evolves around Letmelivemylife, who won at Chelmsford in a photo eleven days ago. He’s only 2lb higher and has a solid chance to add to his 100% course and distance record. He’s quite a short price, though. Too short? Probably fairly priced, more so.
In truth, there isn’t much to take him on with, in this field. But the one who does stand out is lightly raced Candy Warhol. He caught the eye at Southwell on his Handicap debut a fortnight ago.
Restrained from the widest draw, he travelled in rear. Unusual tactics, given he was up with the pace in most of his four career runs before. He made some good progress from over 3f out as the pace increased in a slowly run contest. But as he was kept in a pocket with little room to manoeuvre, no matter which way he turned; until it was too late, he never got a real chance.
It fair to assume that with a clear run he probably goes much closer in tat class 4 Handicap, to finish in an amongst to some higher rated rivals.
He ran noteworthy a number of times before as well. On his comeback run after 230 days off the track, he travelled strongly – too strongly early on – here at Wolverhampton. He was able to kick on from 3 furlongs out, but eventually faded. Perhaps he needed the run, but here is also the possibility that he doesn’t stay 9.5f.
He can be a bit keen early on and showed solid early speed over 7 furlongs prior, in 2022; especially his Chester run looks strong.
Therefore I feel the drop to 7 furlongs can suit. He has shown to have early pace and also cruising speed over that sort of trip. Especially as there is solid pace expected here, which he should be able to track, following the leader(s) closely, could be in his favour, as he may not want this to turn into a sprint.
He also drops into an easier race here – against this opposition his 74 handicap mark gives him a great opportunity, Any natural improvement will see him go close. With the race possibly set up to suit he looks certainly overpriced.
10pts win – Candy Warhol @ 11/2
………
I can’t ignore the elephant in the room: Cheltenham looms large. Tuesday we’re off to the week that defines each jumps racing season. Obviously I am more a flat man. Nonetheless, I still do enjoy the top class Championship races immensely. I am a racing fan, first and foremost.
Betting wise the festival has been largely kind to me over the last number of years. Although, I have greatly reduced my involvement. That resulted in a tremendous 5 winners from only 9 selections last year…. it’s probably unfair to expect the same this time. I’ll keep the purse largely closed this week….
Nonetheless, one bet that stands out to me, that I want to get off the chest right now, before the price invariably collapses on the day:
Galvin in the Cross-Country Chase on Wednesday!
This race has been a lucky one for me over the years. I firmly hope to pick the winner once again.
2/1 is easily obtainable right now. Which strikes me as overly generous. Gordon Elliot has hardly made a secret of how highly he rates Galvin’s chances here. He schooled him extensively over the Cross-Country fences.
And form wise – although it doesn’t always count for much in this division – Galvin is obviously the class act in this field. Last years Gold Cup 4th, would not look out of place in the “big one” on Friday, once again.
I backed Delta Work last year, and surely he’s going to be the main danger. Obviously, any rain will be to his advantage. But he’s probably not quite as classy – not these days – as stable mate Galvin.
The betting has it in the wrong order in my view. It’s not often that I do get involved in these short prices. It’s the absolute pain threshold for me. I simply think 2/1 is such tremendous value; no doubt, come Wednesday, he’ll be 6/4 and lower, possibly go off the favourite.
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