8.00 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

The race evolves around Letmelivemylife, who won at Chelmsford in a photo eleven days ago. He’s only 2lb higher and has a solid chance to add to his 100% course and distance record. He’s quite a short price, though. Too short? Probably fairly priced, more so.

In truth, there isn’t much to take him on with, in this field. But the one who does stand out is lightly raced Candy Warhol. He caught the eye at Southwell on his Handicap debut a fortnight ago.

Restrained from the widest draw, he travelled in rear. Unusual tactics, given he was up with the pace in most of his four career runs before. He made some good progress from over 3f out as the pace increased in a slowly run contest. But as he was kept in a pocket with little room to manoeuvre, no matter which way he turned; until it was too late, he never got a real chance.

It fair to assume that with a clear run he probably goes much closer in tat class 4 Handicap, to finish in an amongst to some higher rated rivals.

He ran noteworthy a number of times before as well. On his comeback run after 230 days off the track, he travelled strongly – too strongly early on – here at Wolverhampton. He was able to kick on from 3 furlongs out, but eventually faded. Perhaps he needed the run, but here is also the possibility that he doesn’t stay 9.5f.

He can be a bit keen early on and showed solid early speed over 7 furlongs prior, in 2022; especially his Chester run looks strong.

Therefore I feel the drop to 7 furlongs can suit. He has shown to have early pace and also cruising speed over that sort of trip. Especially as there is solid pace expected here, which he should be able to track, following the leader(s) closely, could be in his favour, as he may not want this to turn into a sprint.

He also drops into an easier race here – against this opposition his 74 handicap mark gives him a great opportunity, Any natural improvement will see him go close. With the race possibly set up to suit he looks certainly overpriced.

10pts win – Candy Warhol @ 11/2

………

I can’t ignore the elephant in the room: Cheltenham looms large. Tuesday we’re off to the week that defines each jumps racing season. Obviously I am more a flat man. Nonetheless, I still do enjoy the top class Championship races immensely. I am a racing fan, first and foremost.

Betting wise the festival has been largely kind to me over the last number of years. Although, I have greatly reduced my involvement. That resulted in a tremendous 5 winners from only 9 selections last year…. it’s probably unfair to expect the same this time. I’ll keep the purse largely closed this week….

Nonetheless, one bet that stands out to me, that I want to get off the chest right now, before the price invariably collapses on the day:

Galvin in the Cross-Country Chase on Wednesday!

This race has been a lucky one for me over the years. I firmly hope to pick the winner once again.

2/1 is easily obtainable right now. Which strikes me as overly generous. Gordon Elliot has hardly made a secret of how highly he rates Galvin’s chances here. He schooled him extensively over the Cross-Country fences.

And form wise – although it doesn’t always count for much in this division – Galvin is obviously the class act in this field. Last years Gold Cup 4th, would not look out of place in the “big one” on Friday, once again.

I backed Delta Work last year, and surely he’s going to be the main danger. Obviously, any rain will be to his advantage. But he’s probably not quite as classy – not these days – as stable mate Galvin.

The betting has it in the wrong order in my view. It’s not often that I do get involved in these short prices. It’s the absolute pain threshold for me. I simply think 2/1 is such tremendous value; no doubt, come Wednesday, he’ll be 6/4 and lower, possibly go off the favourite.