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Betting

Tuesday Selections: 8th August 2023

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Hello world, I’m back. I needed a little break: after many months of diving into racing all-out day after day through the winter, spring and the first summer months, some rest was much needed.

Many thanks to all of you who asked through various channels whether I’m okay – that’s really appreciated. I’m okay.

With everything in life for me it’s all in or all out for me. I watch tons of racing and love it. But there comes a point when it becomes too much and time away from the game is needed to recharge and especially renew the excitement.

Truth is, I do enjoy the betting side much more during the winter. It’s less racing and less horses to keep track of. I can easily watch all the races without rushing and it never becomes a slog.

The flat season is tough. It’s so much racing. I love the big races but my bread and butter are the low-grade Handicaps, especially over shorter trips. It’s simply too much, though. Who knows whether I’m the only one but the vastness of racing on offer can become overwhelming in the summer months.

Hence, practically ever year, at some point between July and August I have to pull the plug and let it all go. And then come back happy and ready to be all in. So here we go again.

……..

8.10 Ripon: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Albegone proved to be in good nick when rather unfortunate last month at Catterick as he got stuck behind a bunch of horses and came home easily with the impression there was more in the tank.

He’s a tricky sort, who can pull for his head and has a tendency to hang, but his recent runs were – to the most part – better than the bare form.

I find myself going back to his 22/05 performance at Carlisle especially, where he set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired late. That’s strong form.

He’s 7lb lower now, a pound lower than the speed rating he ran to in May, so he should be seriously competitive in this field as he He drops in class into 0-60 company.

The ground won’t be an issue: Albegone is seen to best effect with ease in the ground. He ran well at Ripon in the past as well.

10pts win – Albegone @ 6/1

……….

8.50 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Mudskipper hasn’t fulfilled the potential I thought he had before the season. However, there are some valid excuses as well, and now gelded, going up in trip again on his All-Weather debut he could be underestimated.

He showed promise last year in three runs but was a disappointing favourite at Nottingham on his seasonal reappearance back in April. He bumped into a well-handicapped one and the ground was tough that day, so perhaps he just didn’t get home for valid reasons.

Over a mile in his next two starts, a trip most likely a bit on the sharp side, he never looked like winning but I thought he ran with plenty of credit, especially the last time at Sandown where he didn’t get the best of runs but finished well in the final furlong.

The longer trip is sure to suit today, as could be the switch to the sand and with headgear on it may help him to stay better focused in the closing stages.

10pts win – Mudskipper @ 9/1

Betting

June 2023 Betting Review

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29pts profit, thanks to 6 winners from 68 bets. Complete stats here.

Those are the naked numbers. They mask what was a shambolic month, in truth. I didn’t deserve to turn a profit, no matter how small, in June. And did so by pure luck, not by skill.

As I upped the volume significantly (already started last month, which turned a profit thanks to one big winner) I was basically falling into a habit of gambling.

Not making good, informed decisions, weighing up chances for and against properly. And while still plenty of my eyecatchers won, I still couldn’t back the ‘right’ ones. It felt like trying to catch a fish in murky water.

68 bets in a single month: that’s an awful lot. I never had more bets in a single month, ever. Way too many. It diluted the quality of my selections.

While the facts for playing volume are clear and obvious, my way was always quality before quantity. Hence it’s unusual for me to endure subsequent series of 31 and 16 consecutive losing bets in one month.

Of cousre the “what if” always weighs on the mind. Including those six winners, there were 25 placed selections. That’s about 46% of selections finished in the first three, some at huge prices. If one of those wins, then I may have been inclined to feel more positive about June 2023.

But I shouldn’t, because the truth remains the same: too many bets, not enough quality. The fact selections only beat SP 31 times and BSP even less, tells a more accurate story.

Especially those horses in the 3/1-5/1 bracket did exceptionally poorly.

Saying that, I often struggle in the summer months because it’s just so much racing. Way too much. I can’t keep up, even with specialising only on sprint handicaps, to the most part.

But the bigger picture is always important. Four of six months have been green this year. 10 of the last 17. 17 of the last 28 (since 2021). It’s a long game. And in the long run it’s going up. I just need to find the right balance again. Quality over quantity.

As badly as June ended, with 16 conseqeuitive losers (standing at 20 currently), it was incredibly sweet when 33/1 shot Royal Champion ended my losing run of 31 at Royal Ascot in the most brilliant way.

Betting

Durban July 2023 Preview

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One of my favourite races: A Grade 1 Handicap, an intriguing puzzle to solve every year – South Africa’s biggest race.

The 2023 renewal of the Durban July evolves all around favourite See It Again. A rock solid favourite with a solid draw.

The Cape Derby winne,r who beat superstar colt Charles Dickens in that race earlier this year, enjoyed a perfect prep with a fine runner-up performance in the World Sports Betting Guineas and a subsequent commanding victory in the Daily News 2000, both runs at Greyville.

That Daily News 2000 success is the standout piece of form and one would think he’ll be able to bring this form to the next level as he takes on older rivals for the first time.

He possesses a nice turn of foot and excellent cruising speed. Exactly what you need in the July. He looks competitively weighted as well with 65.5kg on the back.

Question marks I have: does he see out the trip on softish ground and will he find himself in too much trouble when it matters most? He’s not a straightforward colt.

Recent Dolphins Cup Trial winner Winchester Mansion is an obvious candidate, thank to that brilliant 3.5 lengths success last month.

A good #4 draw, he has a lot of finishing speed and could be well placed. He won over 2400m in the past, yet on softish ground, with a decent pace expected, in a highly competitive field, he may lack the required stamina over the July trip.

Justin Snaith #1 seems to be Without Question with Richard Fourie picked the son The United States.

He was twice beaten by See It Again already over 2000m. Although, that was on level weights. One feels he’s been brought along with the July very much in mind and he’s dangerous if he stays the 2200m distance.

The same can be said for 3-year-old Pacaya from the same stable. He’ll love the ground, has course form and is highly progressive.

On breeding he’s got a solid chance to stay the trip as well and there’s surely more to come. The #12 draw isn’t a worry and he’ll be a danger if he can take another step forward.

Last years third and probably Mike De Kock’s best chance is Safe Passage. I was sweet for a long time on him, and still believe he can run a strong race.

His 2022 run warrants an upgrade and with a clear run he has a shout with top man Christophe Soumillon in the saddle. He’ll need a bit of magic from the #14 draw.

Increasingly I begin to wonder weather Safe Passage is in love with this track, despite his Daily News 2000 success last year, though. One also has to question whether he has improved since last year. A bigger weight, difficult draw. Not sure there is much juice in his current price.

The other De Kock runner Dave The King has been talked about as a “dark horse”, although not so dark anymore when prominent racing people give him a huge shoutout.

His form gives this progressive 3-year-old a strong chance to feature prominently in the closing stages, if he can stretch out over the 2200m.

If the pace isn’t on, his chances increase plenty fold and 16s could look huge. He’s got a 100% record with a bit of give in the ground as well.

SA Classic winner Son Of Raj will stay every inch of the distance today. Whether he can bring his best form to Greyville is the question mark. He was disappointing the Daily News 2000 and may prefer the longer straight of Turffontein.

Rascallion may not be good enough against this opposition. Puerto Manzano has never looked really home at Greyville.

Well rested Billy Bowlegs comes here as a fresh horse and has question to answer on trip and ground. He has some strong form in defeat, though, and could go close with any improvement.

Perhaps unfortunate in the Met earlier this year, nonetheless hard to fancy over this trip is Pomp And Power. A highly talented individual, but equality enigmatic.

Veteran Do It Again is here for his final dance. Twice he’s won the July in the past. A true superstar of South African racing, still managed to finish a gallant 4th last year. He shouldn’t be good enough against younger rivals, though.

Two fillies that take on the boys today are of serious interest to me:

Rain In Holland is the recent Woolavington winner here at Greyville. She kicked clear in the final furlong, finding more and more as the race went on. She looks like crying out for an additional furlong.

An uncomplicated filly, she can move forward, travel, track a pace, kick and she loves it at Greyville.

She is incredibly tough and gutsy. A 2-11-4 record speaks for itself. Six runs in 2023 already is somewhat unusual for a fancied runner in the July. However, since February she ran only three times, which seems to have been an ideal prep.

Her form clearly stands up well. A strong and slightly unlucky third in the Grade 1 Champions Challenge, she landed the Woolavington in super style last time.

The weights aren’t quite in her favour, nonetheless I feel she is totally underestimated here in the betting. The top man on board, he’ll likely move forward from the #17 draw, and could overcome this perceived negative quickly.

If she finds a good spot, not caught wide early, you can be sure she’ll go down only for a seriously hard fight. There won’t be many in this field that find more when the final furlong marker is approached.

The other filly I feel is clearly overpriced is Woolavington runner-up Time Flies. She is highly progressive as a 4-year-old and still lightly enough raced to find more improvement.

She’s also quite uncomplicated, likes to be forward, and has the #3 draw to get that prominent position early on. Form wise she has to improve and take it to the next level, however she has answered all calls recently.

A fine winner of the Listed East Coast Cup over 10 furlongs at Greyville, she took her form to the next level in the Woolavinton.

Her Woolavington run warrants a huge upgrade given the tremendous progress she made from 5 furlongs out on the widest outside to hit the front in the closing stages, before she tired and still managed to hold on for 2nd place.

Whether she truly gets 2200m remains to be seen. Although, the full-brother stayed 2400m – so there’s more than just faint hope. She’s better off on the weights with Rain In Holland today as well.

5pts win – Rain In Holland @ 17/1
5pts win – Time Flies @ 35/1

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Betting

Saturday Selections: 1st July 2023

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June is over: 29pts profit. I guess, the way it went that counts as a major success. Quite how that is possible to turn a profit in a month with runs of 31 and 16 conseqeuitive losing bets is remarkable as it’s not sustainable.

Some big prices saved the day. Whether the rest was just unfortunate or more to it, I’ll need to dig deeper. What is certain: I had too many bets. The overwhelming amount of racing doesn’t help.

……..

8.15 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Nibras Rainbow seems difficult to catch as he couldn’t follow on from an eyecatching run at track when last seen at Wetherby.

I felt he had excuses that day, though. Heavily bumped soon after the start, he lost his balance, was lit up, and used up energy to get moving forward. He was early beaten enough, nonetheless.

I have to go back to his penultimate effort over the extended seven furlongs here at Lingfield four weeks ago. A strong run and excellent form:

He dwelt from a wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was then still going well two furlongs from before before heavily challenged. He was seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.

Nibras Rainbow ran a career-best speed rating that day, in line with his current mark. Can he repeat the effort today, and may find a bit more? A decent start, from the #6 draw, could ensure that.

This is a wide open contest in my view. The favourite may improve again, but has to for the return to turf. He’s yet to impress on speed ratings, so worth taking on.

Nibras Rainbow is drifting in the betting this morning. But I feel he’s moving out to a huge price, if here to run on merit.

10pts win – Nibras Rainbow @ 7/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 27th June 2023

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9.00 Newbury: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

I’m intrigued by Ignac Lamar dropping down to 6 furlong again, with Oisin Murphy keeping the ride and the tongue tie applied.

The gelding caught the eye the last two times, although only made me took proper notice last time out after his excellent 3rd at Leicester.

That day Ignac Lamar was quickly forward, led as part of a duo on the far side. He was gutsy and only went down fighting late in the day, to finish 3rd, eventually.

That looked seriously strong form on speed ratings and the previous form of the winner and runner-up. He achieved a career-best 67 speed rating on turf as well.

Prior to this in a better race at Wolverhampton he missed the break but ran home pretty well, especially making excellent ground from three furlongs to the final furlong.

The speed for 6 furlongs is definitely there, and he may find 7 furlongs perhaps a stretch, especially if properly run.

Going back on the turf is intriguing. 0/7 but ran a number of times with credit and remains somewhat unexposed on the grass and sprint trips. Tactically the race could work out nicely, too. He has got the possible front-runner drawn right beside him, to possibly tow him nicely into the finish.

I have slight concerns over the fact that he has finished weakly on some occasions. So, hopefully the tongue tie is a help, although when he wore it the first time last year he bombed out.

But 6 furlongs against 0-70 opposition on fast ground and a straight track could be an ideal scenario on turf for him to get off the mark. He won off his current mark on the All-Weather over this trip and ran to a 70 speed rating. Judged on the latest effort he’s as good on turf.

Going against older horses for the first time is intriguing as well. He’s quite experienced, and could utilise WFA successfully here.

10pts win – Ignac Lamar @ 9/2

Eyecatchers

Royal Ascot 2023 – Eyecatchers

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Royal Ascot 2023 saw many memorable performances, in victory as in defeat. Here’s a list of horses that caught my eye during the last week at Royal Ascot.

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Tuesday, 20/06/2023

2.30 – Queen Anne Stakes:

Clearly the best finishing here was favourite Inspiral. She was fastest through the last five furlongs but was at a disadvantage having to come from well off the pace with a run on the wide outside of the field, away from the pace and possibly without cover much earlier than ideal.

She is a suspect starter, a tricky individual, but obviously top-class. She was the best horse in the race and simply unfortunate the way the race developed.

Whether she can back up this performance remains to be seen. She ran a 100+ speed rating here, for the second time in her career.

Inspiral looks to have the measure of the older milers but remains tactically vulnerable to any more straightforward and prominently ridden horse in a race where the pace isn’t red hot, as well as once she meets the Classic generation.

The biggest eyecatcher to note for the future was Pogo, especially once he drops down in trip. He was certainly ridden with the aim to preserve his limited stamina over the stiff Ascot mile.

He had too much to do from the rear of the field but the way he made serious progress on the far side, quickening into the fastest part of the race, away from the pace as well, even more disadvantaged than Inspiral perhaps, was seriously impressive.

He couldn’t keep up the effort over the stiff final furlong. This performance demonstrated he’s still in strong form, though. He may be underestimated when he drops to a more suitable trip the next time as his recent form reads poorly on paper.

Race Replay

3.40 – King’s Stand Stakes:

The lower to middle drawn horses dominated. In that context Anaf’s effort for third is noteworthy. I’d be not too sure whether he’s able to repeat such huge performance, though. He’s not really shown to belong in this class and his effort petered out quickly in the final half furlong.

Even more impressive was Twilight Call. Badly squeezed right after the start, he found himself at the rear of the field and gave ground away early on when switching to the far side.

He didn’t get a run until very late, in fact only got into the clear just over half a furlong from home, yet finished the joint fastest final furlong split and second best for the last four furlongs.

A strong pace, minimum trip and decent to fast ground are his optimum. This was a clear return to form and he’ll be dangerous in the right conditions. Though, he’s far from a prolific winner, given that he needs everything to fall right.

Race Replay

4.20 – St James’s Palace Stakes:

Paddington was in a different league to the rest. He’s quickly proving himself to be the best of the three-year-old milers. He has the speed and the stamina and didn’t get an ideal trip. Still won easily.

Clear second best in the race was Charyn, I believe. The only one who could somewhat make an impression in the home straight and ran home the fastest final furlong, even though “fast” was relative in this case.

He came from off the pace, which wasn’t ideal, and as a consequence turned wide for a challenge. Class probably got him through the finish more so than stamina.

I’m not sold on his stamina for a properly run mile. He was eyecatching at the Curragh as well in the Irish 2000 Guineas, though that wasn’t a fast race.

A drop to 7 furlongs looks ideal. With a solid pace and decent ground he could be an intriguing runner. Has an entry for the 7f Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh next month.

Race Replay

5.35 – Wolferton Stakes:

The best horse won on the day. Royal Champion gave ground away all the time, yet that ensured he was in the right position when it mattered most. He can win a Group race.

So may be Checkandchallenge. He’s already a Group 3 winner, and often runs consistently well, although equally as consistently found out for class in Group 2 level and above.

He was restrained from a very wide draw here, had a lot to do as he entered the home straight but ran home extremely well. In fact, he finished the last four furlongs the best in his first attempt over 10 furlongs.

On pedigree he has scope to stretch out and could be interesting back in Listed or Group 3 class over this trip. He’s yet to impress on speed ratings, but I feel in the right race (could also be a strongly run mile) he could finally run to something significant. This performance was hugely encouraging.

So was King Of Conquest. He was caught wide early from his draw, before settling at the back of the field. He also had a lot to do from there as he turned wide to run home strongly, without getting beaten up late.

He’s still progressive, achieved a career-best speed rating here and deserves a crack at a Group 3 or perhaps even one of the lesser Group 2 races over this trip.

Race Replay

Thursday, 22/06/2023

3.05 – King George V Stakes:

Bertinelli had a wide draw and top weight to overcome. He was taken off his feet during the frantic early fractions but made strong progress from 4f out as he turned wide, touched a rival as they entered the straight and ran home strongly.

He achieved a 104 speed rating. That is Group class and would give him a shot at a Group 1 even. I have maintained my belief in his class for a long time and am somewhat surprised that we saw him here and not in the Irish Derby.

He stays well and could go up in trip as well, which may be less competitive. The Leger or perhaps Irish version for that matter, would be intriguing.

Land Legend is the other horse who made a huge impression. He was slowly away yet again, and had a lot to catch up early on. After the first two furlongs he was then quicker through the next part of the race than those that finished in the placings.

He was stuck behind a wall in the home straight, though, until 2f out as he quickened nicely, as one of the few actually able to quicken, before getting badly short of room at the final furlong marker again.

Slowly away in nearly all his starts, he gives the field often a head-start. Nonetheless, if he could somehow manager to get better out, he’d be well handicapped off his mark and may have options beyond Handicaps as well.

Race Replay

5.00 – Britannia Stakes:

The two early leaders on the far side make appeal for the future for different reasons. Quick out of the gate and doing way too much too soon, especially in the first two furlongs, was Forca Timao.

He faded badly, as one would expect. The drop to a mile didn’t yield in a return to form, seemingly. Though, he strikes me as oddly campaigned. He ran a huge race in a slowly run Gold Cup Heritage handicap at Newbury, but doesn’t look like one who truly stays that trip.

He may stretch out well to a mile, ultimately, but a drop to 7 furlongs would be most intriguing. He may offer some upside then, especially if the handicapper is kind and drops him below 90.

If the handicapper is kind to Thunder Ball and doesn’t raise him too much, if at all, for his 3l beaten 4th place he remains an intriguing runner as well.

Despite helping to push that hot early pace, he was there in front for a long time, fighting strongly and showing excellent attitude.

He was very impressive in a Novice Stakes in May and could have more to offer. A drop down to 7 furlongs wouldn’t be a worry at all, may be even ideal.

Race Replay

5.35 – Hampton Court Stakes:

The winner was the best horse in the race and gives this form a strong look. Some of those behind him can be marked up and deserve another chance.

Expolanet is an obvious one. from the #11 draw caught wide early, and for most of the race, he was positioned in midfield, gradually progressing, using more energy in the first half compared to Waipiro.

He turned wide and lost a bit of momentum, which he quickly regained before getting hampered 1.5f from home. He got going again, but that was the moment the winner went through and kicked on. He held on well for 2nd.

A clear run and he finishes perhaps only a lengths behind the strong winner. Didn’t impress on speed ratings yet but caught the eye when unfortunate in a hot race at Newbury.

Bolster ran in the same colours. He ran green in and keenly in the early part, jumped to his right, gave the eventual winner a bump.

Was closer to the pace than most that finished ahead of him. Made good progress upon entering the straight, but received a bad bump by the shifting front-runner 2f out. Got going again, but short of room 1f out once again.

Lightly raced and definitely more to come. Not sure he wants further and on pedigree a drop to a mile wouldn’t look like a bad thing either, perhaps.

Race Replay

Friday, 23/06/2023

3.40 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes:

Danny Tudhope gave Live Your Dream and inspired ride from the front, quickly overcoming the wide draw. He did way too much in the first half of the race and had no business finishing so well.

A huge run, he obviously has stamina in abundance but also tactical speed as was on evidence here. He achieved a superb 101 speed rating and he warrants a step up into pattern class.

Has only entries in Handicap company and that may be a lot tougher than so some of the Listed or Group 3 contest even.

The widest draw wasn’t a help for Moracana who was slowly away, perhaps by design. She settled in rear, trailing, and having a lot to do turning for home. She made good progress but behind a wall of horses and repeatedly short of room, until switched to the wide outside inside the final furlong for a strong finish.

She obviously stays strongly, could move up in trip, but perhaps 12 furlongs with a lot of pace are ideal. She could land another of these big handicaps with a better draw, but also up to Listed level and not out of it in a Group 3 possibly.

Race Replay

Saturday, 24/06/2023

4.20 – Hardwicke Stakes:

The “rating horse” won. Maybe Pyledriver isn’t quite the old force anymore but he’s still very good after his long absence. The form looks strong on speed ratings and the runner-up enhanced his credentials significantly in my view.

West Wind Blows took over the lead after the first furlong and from there on set a red hot pace for the first half of the race, especially his third furlong was super hot, and possibly cost him in the finish.

He was slightly hampered by the winner in the closing stages, but in truth had little more to give in the home straight. This should be good form, he ran to a super 103 speed rating, confirming the huge impression he made at Longchamp prior, where he ran to 105.

He gets the trip, just. Over 10 furlongs where he can dominate he’s probably even more dangerous. The Eclipse is an option, possibly even a race like the Irish Champion Stakes could be of real interest.

Race Replay

5.00 – Wokingham Stakes:

Albasheer made up a gigantic amount of ground from last position 2f out to finish like a train in the final furlong. He was slowly into stride, despite first-time blinkers. A tricky sort, and hard to trust, althoug talented when he can put it all together.

Khanjar travelled strongly to the two furlong marker, but got carried over by the eventual winner and as a consequence was a bit short of room, lost his momentum and never found it back. He ran home nicely under an easy ride, though.

He caught the eye prior at Hamilton and looks ready to land a big one. But a tricky sort who can make life difficult for himself, as he was a bit slowly away here as well.

Race Replay

5.35 – Golden Gates Stakes:

Jim Bolger’s only runner during the week was a significant eyecatcher for the fact that the lightly raced colt was still winless after four starts, but did well in hot company and was well backed on the day.

Cuban Dawn had a wide draw and didn’t really settle too well, as he seemed raw and green at the back of the field, at times outpaced, wandering around as well.

He made good progress from 3f out but found himself short of room over 1f out and didn’t get a hard time to run home eventually.

He colt is under the Australian ownership of the Waterhouse/Bolt yard, with the aim to get him over to Australia after this season, as they purchased him for about £300k and have advertised him as one with significant upside.

He was thrown into the deep end on debut in a listed race, when far from disgraced 4th behind Paddington. Placed in two more hot maiden races, his opening mark of 91 looks exploitable.

I think he could drop back to a mile when he has an entry during Irish Derby weekend, if there’s pace.

Race Replay

Betting

Saturday Selections: 24th June 2023

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2-2-3-3-4-5-14. That’s how my selections finished. What a disaster of a day Friday was.

Although, Remarquee came rather close to winning at 33s, but ultimately, I don’t think the slight interference made a significant difference, being totally honest.

To make matters worse, Coppice won the Sandringham (one of my horses to follow but didn’t back here) and Alseeyerthere won the Redcar race – a huge eyecatcher last time out, but I decided to go with ungenuine Fiftyshadesofred at a poor price.

The margins of error are small in this game. Sometimes it’s down to luck, sometimes down to poor decision making. Poor decisions eats profit, though. Always.

….

3.05 Ascot: Group 3 Jersey Stakes, 7f

Enfajaar is one of my horses to follow this season and he showed nothing but an abundance of talent on his seasonal reappearance at Chelmsford last month.

He was a little bit keen early on, but then travelled strongly and kicked clear in the most impressive fashion in the final furlong.

The drop in trip is a slight question mark, because he may also stay a bit further than a mile. But this lad isn’t short of speed, at all. He can accelerate rapidly.

The stiff 7 furlongs at Ascot, with a good pace to chase, having likely front-running Covey drawn close by, could be a perfect scenario.

One only has to watch back his impressive debut performance at Newmarket last year over 7 furlongs, where he accelerated in impressive style from 3 furlongs out and stayed strongly to the line.

There is no doubt he’s pattern class, I believe. The only serious question mark I have is the fast ground. His two wins came on good to soft and on the All-Weather, he seems to hit the ground hard as well. If he acts on this surface, he should be the one to beat.

10pts win – Enfajaar @ 8/1

……

5.00 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Khanjar can run off his old 97 mark here before it goes up soon. He is a somewhat tricky sort and new headgear must make a difference to help him with sharpness.

However, if that does help, he’s one who could be underestimated here, still. He looks to have a huge engine and the potential to improve again.

His form can be a bit hit and miss and difficult to read. He ran better at York on his seasonal debut than the bare result. And even better next time at Hamilton.

There he was slowly away and right away at a disadvantage, multiplied by his draw and racing wide, hence away from the usually more favoured stands’ side.

He made great progress but ultimately had too much to do. Nonetheless, he ran four (+ equal in one) of six furlongs faster than the eventual winner, and was arguably unlucky.

I think it’s fair to say he has been a bit unfortunate in some of the bigger Handicaps he contest to date. Clearly there’s untapped potential. Whether it can be ever realised remains to be seen.

In any case he’s a strong, galloping sort who stays well over 6 furlongs and he should relish the stiff finish here at Ascot. The pace map looks somewhat puzzling, so there is a chance he’s not in the right spot.

10pts win – Khanjar @ 10/1

……….

……

3.52 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Vecchio could be overpriced if he can cope with the drop in trip and potentially muddling pace on faster ground.

However, he looked last time out as if a drop in trip would suit, showed solid early speed over 6 furlongs as a juvenile and ran solid on better ground as well.

I liked his comeback run off a break and gelding operation last time at Goodwood quite a lot, where he tried a mile:

He tracked the pace early on, was pretty keen through the first half of the race, though. Didn’t enjoy the clearest of run in the home straight and had to delay his full effort multiple times, also hung toward the far rail.

I hope from the #1 draw he’ll be on the right side of the track, can bounce out of the gate, grab that rail and just makes it all to use his early speed and stamina to stay on strongly.

Off 77 he could be quite well-handicapped in this field.

10pts win – Vecchio @ 9/2

…..

4.14 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Wide open and competitive. Where’s the pace to come from? Probably more toward the far rail and high numbers. That is a positive as it brings Huddle Up right into the equation.

He showed excellent form in all starts this year and looked like he could be a bit better than his current 73 rating in the right race.

He was found out for speed and/or class over the minimum trip the last to times, although ran on with plenty of zest.

A flattish, uncomplicated 6f on decent but not fast ground looks possibly ideal, and even more so as he drops down in class again. Even though this competitive, it’s easier than the last two races.

He also produced a huge effort on his seasonal reappearance at Thirsk, where he achieved a 72 speed rating as well. It’s fair to assume, now fully fit, track, trip and ground possibly to suit, he can improve back to the level he showed in Ireland before.

10pts win – Huddle Up @ 13/2

……

5.13 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Huge chance for Shine’s Ambition to win a race. This is a poor race, and his most recent effort at this track, albeit over an additional furlong, was huge.

The form looks good with the second having won well in the meantime. The drop to 6 furlongs seems sure to suit and he looks to have the ideal draw to grab that far rail.

Last time over 7 furlongs he enjoyed a quick start, led from the front as part of duo and travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. He was beaten by winner from off the pace.

Still a maiden, but he ran twice 62+ speed ratings in the past and now down to a 62 mark with the drop to 6f he’s really interesting off a career-lowest mark.

10pts win – Shine’s Ambition @ 11/2

…..

8.50 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

How far is Essme going to win this? I guess it depends how she got out of bed. The mare is hardly the most trustworthy horse to back.

In saying that, if she can run to the level of form shown last time over this course and distance she’s likely to win this. That was a strong performance, the runner-up won in the meantime, and this time she has a better draw.

Three weeks ago she tracked the pace on the far side, was quite prominently ridden. She travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages.

She did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD, and also represented a career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground is ideal, which she finds here.

10pts win – Essme @ 11/2

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #5

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.

Spartan Arrow
05/06/23 – 5.15 Windsor:

Touched rival soon after the start, lit up as a consequence and seriously keen for most of the race. Was still going strongly on the bridle over 2f out but got stuck behind a wall of horses. Delayed effort, switched to the inside eventually and ran on strongly, although appeared awkward still.

Clearly talented and better than current mark. Was heavily bumped lto at York too, when seemingly coming with a challenge. Tricky sort who will need a pace to chase.

Race Replay

Captain Vallo
05/06/23 – 4.00 Thirsk:

Widest draw away from favourable stands’ side. Travelled strongly prominently in his group, excellent progress before getting tired in the last half furlong.

Superb comeback run. Not tremendously well-handicapped. But 6f on decent to fast ground in an easier race could be interesting, or else worth to wait for a drop by a couple of pounds.

Race Replay

Harry The Haggler
06/06/23 – 5.30 Lingfield:

Wide draw, had to settle off the pace. Travelled well, good progress over 2f out but had a lot to do. Finished much the best.

Winner in the making, if the handicapper doesn’t react harshly. Excuse Windsor on heavy going. Strong form prior at Lingfield behind well-handicapped winner.

Lightly raced and could still offer more going up in trip as well to try a mile.

Race Replay

Ignac Lamar
06/06/23 – 5.05 Leicester:

Quickly forward, led as part of duo on far side. Gutsy and only went down fighting late. Seriously strong form on speed ratings and form of winner and second.

Possibly better on AW. Down to latest AW winning mark currently and of interest if turned out soon on sand, though also turf not out of it, ideally 6f, may not totally get 7f. Didn’t have many realistic opportunities over 6f on turf.

Race Replay

Lola’s Moment
06/06/23 – 5.45 Wetherby:

Slightly sluggish away but quickly found her stride and moved forward to track a hard pace. Eventually led from 2f out until approaching the final furlong. Briefly accepted challenge before she ran out of gas for good.

Comeback after a break since September 2022. Looks potentially exposed but may be capable o progressing as a 3yo. Sprint trips look hers.

She’s a full-sister to recent 5.5f winner Alfred Cove (OR57). She should drop further in her mark and may be underestimated over fast five with a good draw.

Race Replay

Ricksen
06/06/23 – 8.30 Wetherby:

Led, though pestered. Travelled full of enthusiasm. Challenged from over 2f out on both sides but kept going strongly and came back for more in the final furlong.

Winner and second were probably well-handicapped, therefore the form has some substance.

7f may be ideal as he can be keen. Could be well able to win one of these low grade races in a race with little pace competition. On a fair mark.

Race Replay

Marksman Queen
07/06/23 – 7.50 Kempton:

Sluggish start, travelled well off the pace. Held together until about 2f out. Strong response when asked for effort as she cam home much the best over the last two furlongs in particular.

The hood may took off some of her early excitement. She was keen prior, when winning twice on the All-Weather. She may have options to move up in trip, but a strongly run mile looks ideal for now.

Given her breeding it’s fair to assume she will improve for switching to turf on fast ground. Remains to be seen how much she has in hand, but intriguing in those conditions.

Race Replay

Beccara Rose
07/06/23 – 7.50 Kempton:

Bit slowly away, soon recovered to race about in midfield. Kicked on well over two furlongs out to finish second fast over the last three furlongs.

Looks possibly well-handicapped if she switches back to turf on decent ground. Didn’t seem to enjoy cut in the ground this year and doesn’t seem to have an overly pronounced knee action and her full-sister (highest OR 91) did all her winning on good to form.

Was a strong 4th behind Soul Sister on debut – in soft – last year, though. Should be capable to move up in trip, as well.

Race Replay

The Cruising Lord
07/06/23 – 3.45 Newbury:

Showed good early speed. Kicked well over 2f out. Got tired approaching the final furlong. Excellent return off a long break. Down to a sexy mark if still with appetite.

Not as good as in the past but should be able to improve from this run and looks capable of winning off current 70 OR.

Especially interesting down to 5f again. Best over minimum trip on fast ground, although also capable to act on softer. Probably want to see ideal conditions these days.

Ran really well over 6f nto at Salisbury for a long time in a good race.

Race Replay

Dynamite Katie
07/06/23 – 4.20 Newbury:

Set off at a rapid clip. She ran the first four furlongs faster than the preceding 6f Handicap and the first three furlongs faster than all the other sprint races on the same card, while racing over 7 furlongs herself. She never was likely to get home.

This was her handicap debut and first time on turf. She may have been outclassed here anyway. 7f is a stretch in Handicap company I reckon. A drop to 6f on decent ground could be interesting.

Race Replay

Le Brok Cafe
07/06/23 – 2.00 Newbury:

Rapid start, excellent early speed. Goin okay to 3f out before under pressure. Fell away quickly. Ran better than the price. Probably good form.

Only second career-run. Will be interesting once she qualified for a mark, perhaps mostly as she drops to the minimum trip as well.

Race Replay

Pearle D’or
08/06/23 – 6.40 Yarmouth:

Quickly established lead. Enjoyed the front, kicked on well from 2f out and broke the hearts of most, bar a strong winner who stayed on strongly from off the pace.

2nd start of new yard, changed hands for 40k. Showed some promise in Ireland and may have more to offer on decent ground. May not be out of question he stays 7f either.

Has ran at Hamilton in the meantime. And odd ride, which I’m prepared to forgive.

Race Replay

Lordsbridge Girl
08/06/23 – 8.40 Yarmouth:

Good start, tracked the early pace, ever so slightly disadvantaged by the shifting leader early on. Badly shot of room from over 2f out all the way to the final furlong practically, where she ran home strongly.

Huge run. In line with what she showed on the AW. A mile is absolute maximum. Probably best over 7f with pace but fast ground a mile not out of it. She’s still quite unexposed on turf.

Excellent nto run with strong speed rating. Made effort on the outside away from the rail which didn’t seem ideal on the day. Likely strong form.

Race Replay

Bell Song
08/06/23 – 8.50 Chelmsford:

Had the widest draw to overcome. Didn’t get in and was caught wide approaching the turn and had to move forward for a slightly improved position. Impressive how she was able to kick and stay well to the line despite all the trouble.

Handicap debut, looks capable to win off her mark, especially based on her seasonal reappearance at Southwell, which was seriously strong form. A strong pace over 7f should help. Unexposed on turf.

Ran an unfortunate race at Sandown in the meantime. Did well in the circumstances and better than that.

Race Replay

Khanjar
08/06/23 – 3.35 Hamilton:

Slowly away and right away at a disadvantage, multiplied by his draw ad racing wide away from the usually more favoured stands’ side. Made great progress but ultimately had too much to do. Ran 4 (+ equal in one) of 6 furlongs faster than the eventual winner.

Can’t be harshly assessed for this and remains of interest. Didn’t run quite a speed ratings in the 90s but looks capable. Bit unfortunate in some of the bigger Handicaps.

Ran better at York on his seasonal debut than bare result. Strong, galloping sort who stays well up a stiff finish.

Race Replay

Lady Lade
09/06/23 – 1.40 Thirsk:

Clear disadvantage being drawn low and away from the pace. After a solid start lost quickly a lot of ground, about 7 lengths behind the leader 3f out.

Made tremendous progress against the bias and finished much the best over the last 3f, although paid a bit of tribute in the closing stages to a strong mid-race splits.

Only won once in handicap company, off 68 last year, ran to 66 speed rating. becomes quite competitive now off a revised mark.

Race Replay

Mrs Trump
09/06/23 – 3.10 Thirsk:

Tough from the #1 draw, moved quickly toward the centre. Bit short of room when a gap closed and she had to delay her effort and be switched. Ran very well given the circumstances.

Clearly in strong form. Ran a huge race last time at Ripon and had excuses at Southwell, too. Still a maiden but dangerous once she gets a good draw.

Race Replay

Wedgewood
09/06/23 – 2.00 Brighton:

Badly bumped soon after the start, still moved rapidly forward and let first 2-3f at a fast pace. Gradually tired.

Ran better than bare performance lto too. Finished tired last two now, maybe needs a small break. Interesting afterwards. off possibly revised mark over 5f on turf still, may not stay 6f, also may be better on AW but could be capable on turf too.

Won seriously well when last seen on AW and ran a good race at Windsor in a really hot Handicap in the meantime.

Race Replay

Fragrence
10/06/23 – 6.55 Chepstow:

Blistering early speed, led by a couple of lengths. Gradually tired. Small field but very strong race with rivals in good form.

Ran to multiple speed ratings last season that suggest she is capable off her revised 60 mark. Dangerous in the easier race where she can lead on decent ground over 5f.

Race Replay

Raasel
10/06/23 – 1.15 Haydock:

Probably not quite advantaged by having to make his effort on the widest outside against the far rail after travelling well held up until over 2f out. Made huge progress thanks to fastest furlong two out, before getting understandably tired late.

Huge run, still run fastest the last 3f. Can be forgiven previous Haydock run due to severe draw bias and ran well on his seasonal reappearance. Could be underestimated next time.

Not disgraced in hot Group 1 at Royal Ascot in the meantime.

Race Replay

El Caballo
10/06/23 – 3.35 Haydock:

Slightly awkward start. Tracked the pace in third, was going well and waiting to make a challenge from three furlongs out. Couldn’t get a run on the inside, was several times short of room and hampered 1f out. Finished easy on the eye.

Excellent run and may have gone closer with clear run. Not sure he truly stays 7f at this level on turf, but chance given on fast ground. Probably better over 6f. Obviously superb on sand, but may be underestimated on turf.

Race Replay

Royal Charter
10/06/23 – 4.10 Haydock:

Seriously keen when held up early on. Was going okay and kept up to work from over 3f out, but route to progress closed until over 1f out behind horses as she was also hanging to the left. Finished much the best.

Strong seasonal reappearance. Obviously more to come. Does stay 7f no problems. Needs to settle better and follow a strong pace. Drop to 6f not out of question, either.

Race Replay

Ascot Adventure
10/06/23 – 2.40 Beverley:

Moved quickly forward to push a strong pace as part of a duo. Rolled down the hill, quite inefficient sectionals. Was able to actually kick on somewhat in the home straight once again. Impressive, before getting tired late.

Huge run. Joint career-2nd best speed rating (78). 7.5f stretches his stamina. Best over 7f, ground independent. Also 6f with plenty of cut possible.

Down to good mark. Any additional help from the handicapper a bonus as he looks in top form in the right race.

Was seriously disappointing at Thirsk in the meantime. However, deserves another chance as the ground turned that day and the race developed into a strange one down the stands’ rail.

Race Replay

Swinging Eddie
10/06/23 – 3.20 Catterick:

Great early pace. Led early on, but always pressured. Did way too much in the first half of the race and did extremely well to finish as well as he did.

In superb form this year. Ran to 61 speed rating when winning at Beverley. Possibly a touch better on decent ground. Down to fair mark and capable of winning still. Ran to better speed ratings last season and looks in similar form.

Race Replay

Physique
11/06/23 – 1.35 Goodwood:

Caught wide and without cover from the highest draw. Couldn’t get in until halfway through the race. Gelding was clearly lit up and his chances decimated by then. Got ever so slightly impeded by a tiering front-runner from 2f out before he finished the fastest over the last two furlongs regardless.

Fair to say with a better draw and run he would have won. Lightly raced, has scope off his current mark as he should be should be already a 95+ horse.

Has shown he handles fast ground without a problem. Should have options to stay a mile but maybe too keen at this stage of his career.

Ran a big race for a long time in a hot Handicap at Royal Ascot in the meantime. Maybe didn’t quite get home over the stiff mile there.

Race Replay

First Ruler
11/06/23 – 4.25 Goodwood:

Trailed the small field. Looked a bit awkward around the home turn, probably not helped that the pace increased significantly at that point. Niggled and reminder received and had to made progress right into the fastest part of the race, no advantage from off the pace. Ran home strongest.

Return run. Deserves and upgrade. Ran a 91 speed rating in Meydan when winning over 12f. and seems still progressive with age and maturity.

Stays the trip obviously, but would love to see him over 10f with a fast pace to chase. Could bring out improvement and maybe good enough to land a Group 3. Didn’t have many opportunities of that sort.

Race Replay

Mattice
11/06/23 – 3.45 Beverley:

Started quickly, did a lot in the first three furlongs to grab the lead and stay there. Tired badly in the final furlong. Strong run, competitive race.

Comes slowly down in ratings and class. Ran often in ultra-competitive races. Looks capable still, certainly in an easier race, where he can dominate.

Race Replay

Winter Crown
11/06/23 – 5.15 Beverley:

Second widest draw, caught wide early, then caught behind a wall of horses. Had to delay his run and fight for a gab to finally get out in the clear, re-organise himself with less than a furlong to go to run home strongly.

Was unfortunate from a poor draw, away from the pace, and short of room lto as well. Clearly better than OR 76. Should be hard to beat if moving back up to 6f, but a stiff 5f seem fine too. Fast ground no issue.

Race Replay

La Roca Del Fuego
12/06/23 – 5.08 Windsor:

Started quickly, led against the inside rail, under pressure as he stayed there while main bunch went away from the inside. Weakened rapidly. Rain and ground probably turned against him.

Better on AW and definitely needs fast ground on turf. Was well-backed here, and ran with plenty of credit from the front lto. Down to dangerous mark on turf and sand over 5f.

Race Replay

Dulcet Sprit
12/06/23 – 4.30 Lingfield:

Moved forward to grab the lead and led by a couple of lengths setting a good, honest, even pace. Was much faster through the first half than the eventual winner and second. Showed good attitude right to the line.

First time on turf, definitely looks like one who enjoys fast ground. Wasn’t expected, and neither in her last starts. Won well off 58 on the AW and should come down to intriguing mark on turf as well, especially in a race where she can dominate.

Wouldn’t be out of it if she drops to 6f in a race with not much pace to compete. Ideally see her drop below a mark off 58.

Race Replay

Get Off Me
12/06/23 – 5.00 Lingfield:

Started alright, got to the rail and led, did more than the rest in a hotly contested run. Excellent 4f performance before tired badly, although quite understandable given the early exertions.

Followed on nicely from huge run lto on the AW when he finished seriously strongly in a hot race for the grade, after missing the break. Can be sluggish at the start. Maybe headgear can help.

Looks to have pace for the minimum trip certainly. Huge runner if he drops back in grade with a solid start.

Race Replay

Grant Wood
12/06/23 – 8.30 Pontefract:

Wide draw, slowly away, perhaps by design. Settled in rear, trailing as the field turned for home. Loads to do but kept answering calls and accelerated well making solid progress against the inside. Not quite clear run over 1f out and jockey seemed happy enough to concede defeat.

Wasn’t in it to go close. Changed yards. Seasonal reappearance. Should come one and probably be better over 7f. Ran 72 speed rating last year. Up in trip and some money in the betting will tell whether the handbrake is off.

Race Replay

Jimmy Lifestyle
13/06/23 – 3.10 Salisbury:

Covered up early, tried to unwind for challenge from over 3f out on the outside which seemed a difficult place to come from. Didn’t get overly hard ride and ran on well to the line.

Looks a big lad and may improve with racing. Up in trip to 7f could be interesting of a revised mark as he may not quite have the speed for 6f.

Race Replay

Sam’s Call
15/06/23 – 4.20 Nottingham:

Not ideally drawn and slightly bumped by rival out of the gate. Not ideally placed behind horses and short of room 2f out, had to switch ever so slightly, lost momentum, before running home strongly. Finished 3 of last 4 furlongs faster than well-handicapped winner. Good form.

Can hit flat spot in the middle of his races. Best over 5f. Down to dangerous mark, although not prolific and doesn’t deserve many chances.

Race Replay

Rum Cocktail
15/06/23 – 7.10 Haydock:

Travelled in rear before making ever so slightly progress while niggled covered up behind a wall of horses, never seemed to be entirely happy. Bulldozed her way through a gap from 2f out, shifted, slightly unbalanced before galvanized to mount challenge.

Finished joint best last 3f. Bit unlucky to finish only 3rd. Down to good mark. Ran solid speed ratings this year already. Dangerous over minimum trip on decent ground, but 6f could be worth a try and unlock improvement too.

Race Replay

Azazat
16/06/23 – 6.35 Cork:

Close up with the pace, tracked the leader. Was going well, but got stuck behind the first two from 3f out which gave the eventual winner the opportunity for a decisive move. Switched 2f out and found plenty for pressure.

Unfortunate, but strong form. Excellent 96 speed rating which gives her a crack at Graded race. Still lightly enough race to see some improvement that would see her competitive against the better 3yo fillies over 12f.

Race Replay

Tafreej
17/06/23 – 3.20 Chester:

Not ideally drawn and bit slowly away, confined to the rear of the field. Got unbalanced around the home turn as she was also short of room until hitting the straight. Ran home the fastest.

Still unexposed and looks certainly ready to move up in trip. The dam won over 1m 4f. Interesting over a mile at least, and offers potential off 84.

Race Replay

Rathbone
17/06/23 – 5.25 York:

Excellent early speed, was quick through the first four furlongs before gradually tiering. He was probably advantaged by riding on the far side, but still did very well to stay in front for long.

This was a competitive race. Ran well in good Handicap lto. Clearly back in form and could win in a less competitive race and a front-runner track. Won off 90 and ran to 86 speed rating last summer. Maybe not quite as good these days but on a dangerous mark.

Race Replay

Tees George
18/06/23 – 5.00 Doncaster:

Bumped early on by a rival. Settled in rear. Was able to answer the accelerations after a pedestrian opening, and ran on well on the outside, easily under hands and heels in the final furlong.

Should certainly for a step up in trip. 7-8f probably no issue at all on pedigree. Still lightly raced and mark 0f 60 offers opportunities.

Race Replay

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 21st June 2023

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It needed a 33/1 winner to break this most annoying losing run. Thanks to Royal Champion (16/1 SP) who travelled as wide as sweetly through the race and won, despite carrying a penalty, like a horse in a different league to the rest.

A confident, no-nonsense ride by Jack Mitchell. He seemed to have clear instructions to avoid trouble at all costs. And so he did.

That means my rotten run of 31 conseqeuitive losing selections is over. One more and it would have been the longest losing run ever for me.

It’s a funny game. Some big prices knocked on the door lately. Including Bucanero Fuerte earlier on Tuesday, with a great run for 3rd in the Coventry. But it wasn’t to be. Never mind. Today is a good day.

Also back in profit for the month, of course. Which is the most important thing. Always.

I would hope things turn back to some form of normality now, because they were not normal lately. I haven’t been doing anything fundamentally different and liked most selections, even with the blessing of hindsight.

One a different note: all eyes are on Royal Ascot this week, naturally. My eyes were on the announcement for the final field for the Durban July that took place this morning as well, though. The big race is less than two weeks away.

Final runners, weights and the draw were announced. The draw played a lesser role in the past, though. Class found a way.

Therefore, the #14 draw for Safe Passage – the one I fancy strongly – is less of a negative, as maybe even a blessing in disguise, as it may ensure now that there is actually a price available for him on the day that makes me want to back him.

………

4.20 Ascot: Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, 1m 2f

Small but select field for this renewal of the POW. Questions evolve around the pace. Who’s going to do the donkey work?

Luxembourg showed he can make it all, if needed. But it may fall to Classic Causeway who has shown plenty of good early speed in the US and he may find it hard not to pull his way to the front over this trip, if no other rival moves decisively forward early on.

Last years Belmont Derby winner could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead from the front, though, given his excellent speed. Although, the ground may not be quite fast enough for him and if all things go normal, he simply shouldn’t have the class.

2021 Derby hero Adayar returned successfully to the track at Newmarket in the Gordon Richards a few weeks ago. He confirmed his wellbeing. He ran a huge race in the Champion Stakes back in October, a performance that warranted an upgrade.

If he can run to a similar level of form as a 5-year-old then he’s firmly in the mix. On the other hand, in those five runs since his impressive Epsom success, his best speed rating achieved is a rather lowly 90 – for this grade at least.

My Prospero has hinted plenty of ability throughout his career and was arguably an unfortunate runner-up in the St James’s Palace twelve months ago. He’s yet to convince on speed ratings, though, hence may be found out against the very best here, as otherwise a massive career-best would be required.

Mostahdaf looks a bit short of class as well, if it coms to winning a Group 1. He deserves to be here and take his chance, but doesn’t seem to be top-class.

The same could not be said about Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, as they are multiple Group 1 winners. They meet here once again after their exciting fight in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at Curragh earlier this year.

Luxembourg got the better that day. He was forced to make all with no other pace in the race. He ensured that this was not a test of speed but rather a proper race to the line as evidence by his strong 110 speed rating – a career-best for the colt.

He looked a bit awkward in the closing stages, as he tends to do. At the same time he was brave and gutsy, fending off the challenge from Bay Bridge in the final furlong.

One could argue he had the run of the race. Certainly he got first run and that was possibly an advantage as Bay Bridge got stuck in a pocket all the way to the two furlong marker and only got out with less than 1.5 furlongs to go.

Bay Bridge had to find his stride quickly, and it was impressive to see how quickly he was able to get into top gear. Yet, there wasn’t enough time to run down Luxembourg, though.

On the other hand, Luxembourg may have been too good, anyway. He’s 3/3 over the trip now and clearly is the exceptional colt in line with the the vibes from Aiden O’Brien, who never wavered in his admirations.

Can Bay Bridge make up the half a lengths gap that was between them at the Curragh? Probably. Slightly different track and a different pace scenario can change the outcome.

The 5-year-old should be in his prime right now. And that’s confirmed by the 109 speed rating he ran at the Curragh, and improvement from his a fine 100 performance in the Prix Ganay on his seasonal reappearance.

The ground has been a hot topic of debate all Tuesday. Bay Bridge probably doesn’t love it properly fast. Genuine good ground will be perfect, though, and it looks likely that’s what we’ll have on Wednesday.

Ascot is the place of Bay Bridge’s biggest success, the British Champion Stakes back in October last year. He’s a highly consistent colt, one who usually puts his best foot forward, and nothing less is expected this time.

On everything we know there is little between Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, the two main contenders, in my view – hence from a price point of view Bay Bridge has to be the logical value choice.

10pts win – Bay Bridge @ 7/2

…..

6.10 Ascot: Windsor Castle Stakes, 5f

How is this race going to work out from a pace perspective? There seems to be plenty of early speed. Over the stiff five at Ascot this may develop into a test of who is the fastest over the minimum trip and does stay a bit further than that.

Interpreting the pace map looks tricky, especially the way the sprint races developed on the first day. I make an educated guess and think it probably will develop into a mad dash to the line where everyone from anywhere could win.

In any case, the one I like against the field is Inquisitively. He has to step up to challenge the better fancied runners, like Barnwell Boy, who ran in impressive 90 speed rating on debut, or seriously progressive Maximum Impact.

Especially Barnwell Boy looks a rock solid favourite, especially if the stands’ side continue to ride faster. He was incredibly impressive on debut, but is a skinny price for the nature of this race.

Inquisitively in contrast, has only a 2nd place to his name that came in a class 5 Novice race at Windsor. Far from sexy. However, that form rates strongly in my view and may be underestimated.

For one, the race has worked out well in the meantime, and visuals meet the clock here too.

The overall time as well as the pace they ran for the first three- and four furlongs compared strongly to the other 5- and 6 furlong sprints for older horses on the same card. 

That was mainly down to Inquisitively, who overcame the wide draw as he started quickly and gradually moved over the to the stands’ rail where he led and set a hot pace.

It was impressive to see him outbattle the eventual third, who had a better draw and was ridden with more restraint and who has won in the meantime as well.

That was over 6 furlongs and he appeared to have no issue with a drop to the minimum trip. In fact, I got the impression a stiff five may be an ideal scenario.

The draw is a question mark. As the going on Tuesday favoured the low numbers on the far side, according to the going stick. But wit no further rain expected I have hopes the track dries out well enough that tomorrow afternoon any bias has evaporated and we should get a fair race.

Since writing this post and backing the horse at big odds earlier today there has been a bit of money for him. Happy with my overall price, but anything lower than 15s and I probably wouldn’t have been writing this, given the competitive nature of this race, being totally honest.

10pts win – Inquisitively @ 20/1

……

3.30 Hamilton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Captain Vallo ran a huge race when finishing 3rd at Thirsk last time out. That was his seasonal reappearance and he could hardly have made a bigger impression that day.

He had to overcome the widest draw, far away from he favourable stands’ side. Yet, he travelled strongly in his group, made excellent progress to challenge in the closing stages, before getting tired in the last half furlong.

A superb comeback run. He must be in serious form and this easier race, down into 0-70, gives him a super chance as a winner over the course and distance.

Saying that, he’s not tremendously well-handicapped. But 6 furlongs at Hamilton on decent ground looks an ideal scenario in a race where not much else catches the eye.

10pts win – Captain Vallo @ 7/2

……..

7.10 Ripon: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Wen Moon had excuses last time at Nottingham as he hang his race away after making smooth progress in the middle of the race to go upside with the leader.

He showed tendencies before of hanging to his left side, hence, possibly a track with a guiding rail to his left would be ideal. The way the 6f at Ripon rides could provide exactly that.

The #4 draw is perhaps a bit too far away from that guiding rail, though, and a concern to get there early with plenty of pace around, too.

However, cheek-pieces are added and they may help him to focus better in the closing stages, as well as to be sharply away from the gate. He showed solid early speed in the past and is a course winner as well.

His current 83 rating gives him a big chance in this field, judged on his Pontefract victory in class 3 last month. He was disadvantaged by the widest draw and had to settle in rear.

As a consequence he turned widest for home for a run, while going best, as he made smooth progress to hit the front at the final furlong marker before he hang badly to his left. Nonetheless, he won well with plenty in hand I believe.

It was an impressive performance, given the deep ground and doing so against the pace bias. Wen Moon is almost certainly better on decent (not proper fast perhaps) ground. Only 3lb higher than at Pontefract, still lightly raced and gelded during winter – there’s more to come.

10pts win – Wen Moon @ 8/1

…….

8.10 Ripon: Classified Stakes, 6f

I backed Azaim the last two times and seemingly follow this lad over the cliff.

He was incredibly disappointing at Catterick, but was beaten before the race got hot, in fact, because of the way he started and the position he found himself in.

As a 28/1 shot in a hot contest at Carlisle he improved dramatically when sent to the front. He was ran down eventually, but it was a strong effort that confirmed the promise he showed at Musselburgh last month was real.

Judged on those two performances I feel he’s better than all of his rivals here. He looks capable of running to mid 50’s in the right conditions right now, especially judged on that Musselburgh run where first and second appeared quite well-handicapped.

No more excuses, though. He’s got the #9 draw here. Ideal to attack from the front, grab the rail and wave good bye to the rest.

10pts win – Azaim @ 17/2

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 20th June 2023

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Royal Ascot is nearly upon us. One more sleep. It’s THE most exciting week for any flat racing fan. Brilliant racing, top-class horses. Good ground (hopefully). I love watching it.

Although, from a betting perspective it’s never been a big week for me. Last year I had only three bets the entire week (2 the year before)! Which included the Maljoom race that gives me nightmares to this day.

Hence, I’m somewhat surprised to find myself having as many bets on day one already! Ominous. Certainly given my current form.

………

2.30 Ascot: Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes, 1m

One of my favourite races all year, and how can it be any different when my favourite colt Paco Boy made a name for himself in this very race back in 2009: he travalled like a dream, produced for his trademark turn of foot to win in style (shamefully it seems no video footage has survived).

That’s the past. The future is now. And this future shapes like a match-race between Inspiral and Modern Games. At least in the betting.

Current favourite Inspiral (may change by the time of posting) hasn’t been seen since a lackluster effort in the QEII last October. That’s a worry.

However, her victory in the Jacques le Marois last August is the standout piece of form in this field, especially on (more recent) speed ratings. She ran well fresh in the past, and yet it requires a lot of trust to back her at short odds.

Modern Games is the “recent form” horse after his Lockinge Stakes success. He didn’t ran an overly impressive speed rating that day (91) and his career-best 98 from last June in the French Guineas is certainly solid, without being exceptional, especially not for a 9/4 shot in a Group 1.

Native Trail, is the one with the most consistent speed ratings, having ran multiple times to 100+, including three times last year. His comeback run after a break and wind op was okay, but hard to gauge from that whether he’s back to anywhere near his best.

If he is, and you trust him to be, he’s a clear danger and arguably value in the betting, given a stiff mile at Ascot should suit, especially if the pace is on.

Mutasaabeq got the better of Native Trail him at Newmarket in fine style from the front, but couldn’t follow up in the Lockinge. He may well set this race up for someone else, I feel.

Chindit was runner-up in the Lockinge Stakes and his performance warranted an upgrade. He won a Queen Anne Trial on his seasonal debut nicely and is a rock solid chance. For all that, he’s not overly exciting and didn’t impress on speed ratings for a while.

That brings me back to one of he horses I fancied to have a huge 2022: Cash. He was one of my 5 to follow last year. His issues have been well documented and those prevented him from realising his true potential so far.

Given the tremendous impression he made on his debut in October 2021, and then on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown in the Classic Trial in April last year, where he was a seriously unlucky 2nd behind Westover, one may wonder “what if”.

“What if” may be here and now. For one he may get his ideal race: a fast pace to track over a mile that should ensure a test of stamina over the trip. And he looks to be ideally drawn to follow the lead.

I loved his two runs this year. The second behind Chindit over this course and distance when he finished the best in a sprint finish. And when last seen in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown.

He tried to move up in trip, but the pace wasn’t really on and he was – unsurprisingly – way too keen in the first three furlongs. It was still eyecatching to see the way he made smooth progress once the pace increased from over 4f out.

He fell away late but it was a huge effort behind strong Desert Crown and Hukum. Given all the question marks over most in this Queen Anne field, it nearly feels like a drop in class, somewhat.

Cash is a massive price. Too big here. Yes, he’d prefer a bit of rain for ideal conditions, but that’s unlikely to happen now. But track and trip will suit. He’s unexposed and open to improvement. Can he deliver some well needed cash for my decimated betting bank?

10pts win – Cash @ 20/1

……..

3.05 Ascot: Group 2 Coventry Stakes, 6f

Intriguing race for myriad of reasons. There’s certainly a social media aspect to the race: the clock vs the eye, who’s going to prevail? That’s the simplified narrative of the last few days on Twitter as all the pre-race talk evolves around River Tiber and Asadna.

Aiden O’Brien has been really positive about his lad, River Tiber, who’s 2/2 this year and looked an exciting colt on debut. So is Ryan Moore. That’s definitely something to take serious.

River Tiber must have learned plenty at Naas the next time, where he also bettered his excellent debut 77 speed rating. There is tons more to come, especially as he moves up to 6 furlongs.

Asadna on the other hand, was visually incredibly impressive on debut, but also ran a sensational 90 speed rating. He couldn’t have done more to impress that day at Ripon.

Both are drawn at opposing ends of the field. The way this race develops from a pace angle could decide who’s more likely to win. They have solid pace around them to potentially provide a lead into the finish.

However, the pace may develop more toward the middle and higher drawn horses here, and that may play into the hands of Asadna, but also could bring other horses into the equation.

There are many tasty prices on offer, and it’s not easy in a field full of unexposed horses to make the ‘right’ call.

A case can be certainly made for Army Athos, who was visually an impressive winner on debut, who seems an uncomplicated sort as well and may provide good early speed from gate #12. He ran a low speed rating, though, hence has to show more here if he wants to go all the way.

Amo Racing has some interesting contenders: Cuban Thunder looks potentially well drawn between speed horses, to get a nice lead, if he’s good enough to take it.

Stable mate Bucanero Fuerte could be even better drawn, close to likely speed horses Army Ethos and US raider Fandom. He could be in an excellent spot two furlongs from home.

He impressed me on debut at the Curragh early in the season over the minimum trip, as he travelled well, tracked the pace and kicked clear in impressive manner eating up the uphill finish at Irish flat racing HQ as he ran to a fine 80 speed rating as well.

It was rain softened ground, so the form may be a bit suspect, and hasn’t worked out all that well in the meantime. Nonetheless, the way he finished that day – strongly sprinting all the way to the line – suggests that moving up to 6 furlongs will certainly to his advantage. He’s a full-brother to some smart siblings. Whether he handles the better ground is the key question.

Bobsleight and Haatem, first and third at Epsom recently, are others who are interesting as they appear progressive and have a bit of experience already.

Hard to know how good Fandom is for Wesley Ward. What’s to be expected is the colt to show blistering early speed. Though, there are many with solid early pace in this race this time and also right beside him. I feel he may burn his fuel too early.

The other one who may get a nice lead into the race, drawn more on the outside of the pace I expect to come toward the centre of the track, is debut Windsor scorer Chief Mankato.

The form may be underestimated, because it was just a Windsor Class 5 Novice race. However, it seemed a surprisingly hot one. The form looks strong, has worked out well in the meantime, and visuals meat the clock here.

Even though he was possibly well drawn, he didn’t get the ideal race early one with shifting horses pushing him ever so slightly back. His acceleration from 3f out, though, was impressive, and he reeled the leaders in to run home strongly.

The overall time as well as the pace they ran for the first three- and four furlongs compares strongly to the other 5- and 6 furlong sprints for older horses on the same card. This lad must have a serious engine.

5pts win – Chief Mankato @35/1
5pts win – Bucanero Fuerte @ 19/1

……

3.30 Thirsk: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Ascot Adventure ran a huge race when last seen at Beverley, and left on the same mark, 5lb below his last winning mark, he looks a big chance with a good draw and pace scenario possible in his favour.

The Beverley race was a hot affair. He moved quickly forward to push a strong pace as part of a leading duo. He rolled down the hill and overall ran an inefficient race.

Still, he was able to actually kick on once again in the home straight – Impressive to see, before getting understandably tired late.

He achieved a joint career-2nd best speed rating here, even though 7.5 furlongs may stretch his stamina to the absolute limit.

The slight drop back to 7 furlongs here at Thirsk will suit. He acts in all sort of ground conditions, so any rain is not a major worry. Off 80 with the #4 draw and a track that favours those up with the pace he looks to have a serious chance.

10pts win – Ascot Adventure @ 5/1

……..

4.20 Ascot: Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes, 1m

What a race! Pretty much all the right horses are here. This presents also the opportunity for English and Irish 2000 Guineas winners to meet.

The ground could play a major role in who’s going to brevail in this battle. It looks pretty clear that Chaldean prefers cut in the ground. It may not rain enough between now and tomorrow afternoon to turn Ascot to proper soft.

I also feel Chaldean got pretty much the run of the race at Newmarket. He ran a fine treble-digit sped rating, that gives the performance substance, and yet I have reservations, not least at his short price.

If the ground stays decent enough I would certainly favour Paddington. I was present at the Curragh three weeks ago and saw an individual with plenty of scope. I loved how he kicked on in the final furlong and he looks an exciting prospect for the future.

In saying that, the fact he hasn’t managed to run a speed rating beyond the 60s is concerning. Perhaps, he didn’t have the opportunity yet, could be a fair argument. He looks capable of doing it, but given his short enough price there is better value to be found.

Royal Scotsman was an excellent third at Newmarket behind Chaldean. He was possibly a little bit unfortunate that day. He flopped at the Curragh and his well being has to be trusted. He should be in the mix if healthy.

Craven winner Indestructible bombed out in the Guineas. The Craven performance gives him a chance, if he could be back to that level of form. Galeron ran on well in the Irish equivalent, a bit of an eyecatcher. So was Charyn, who didn’t get the clearest of runs. Both may not be good enough, though, I suspect.

Isaac Shelby was a comfortable in the Greenham with a good speed rating and ran with tons of credit when runner-up in the French Guineas. The #3 draw here is ideal for him to move forward and find a good position. I like him a lot.

Unbeaten Cicero’s Gift has been talked about a lot. He looks open to plenty of improvement. A danger, if he does progress, indeed. However, he has to find quite a bit on speed ratings.

That leaves unexposed Mostabshir. He’s one of my horses to follow after his impressive debut (and sole) run as a juvenile last year at Kempton where he quickened nicely and overcame a wide draw.

His eagerly anticipated seasonal reappearance in the Craven Stakes was disappointing, but he left that run firmly behind when winning a competitive contest at York the next time.

That day he finally looked like the exciting colt we saw on the Kempton polytrack again, an he produced a scintillating turn of foot to win easily by five lengths. If ridden out he’d have won by half a furlong, perhaps.

The pace wasn’t truly on that day, nonetheless an ordinary horse couldn’t do what he did there, I firmly believe. The form also looks strong thanks to the runner-up and fourth who went on to win subsequently.

Nonetheless, on form terms and speed ratings much more is needed here against the best of the three-year-old milers. The likes of Chaldean and Paddington are Classic winners, and Isaac Shelby was a runner-up in the French equivalent. It’s a significant step up from a Novice race at York.

On the other hand, he had only three career runs so far and in two of them he was a hug eyecatcher. It’s also fair to assume that possibly needed the run in the Craven and possibly enjoyed the fast ground at York as well. With that in mind, any significant rain at Ascot could be a concern.

He’s bred to improve with age and experience, though, and I feel there is an awful lot more to come. His dam’s offspring often improve with time. At give prices he looks clearly overpriced given the likely upside.

10pts win – Mostabshir @ 8/1

……..

5.35 Ascot: Listed Wolferton Stakes, 10f

Saga looks a poor favourite. He may not stay and could struggle for a run. Buckaroo could run over his preferred trip and the yard is quite bullish. Saying that, he hasn’t run a serious speed rating yet.

This is wide open and much will depend on pace and whether horses get a clear run. The one I’m keen on is Royal Champion who caught my eye a number of times last year.

This is a Listed race and he has to carry a penalty which isn’t ideal. Nonetheless, I think he could be capable of giving the weight away as he may well deserve another crack at Group level and he looks significantly overpriced here.

There a a few reasons why he is a big price, the weight penalty aside, and they are valid, though. The #12 draw isn’t ideal. There is plenty of pace and he may be caught wide or too far back. If the rain arrives it could compromise his chances further.

In saying that, right now it seems good ground is the worst to expect on Tuesday afternoon. The gelding has shown to be versatile in his running style, possessing excellent cruising speed, which is what’s needed here in this likely chaotic race.

He drops in class after a poor effort in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes at Chester. That came over 10.5f in the mud and was his comeback run. I thought he ran better than the bare result suggested given he was there right until they turned for home, actually.

He was found out for class in the Champion Stakes in his final race in 2022, but prior to that enjoyed an excellent campaign: two fine victories over 10 furlongs in Handicap and Listed company, and a strong third in the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor.

He ran to a 104 speed rating there – a race that has worked out well in the meantime – and backed that up with an ultra-impressive victory in the Listed Doonside Cup at Ayr where he travelled incredibly strongly and made eyecatching progress from 4f out to win comfortably.

That particular piece of form may not be the strongest on offer, though the way he did it was visually quite taking nd simply confirmed that he’s a proper horse, in my view. The way h quickened was impressive.

If he can run to same level of form that he was able to run to last summer he has a chance to win here, especially if the way the race develops gives him a clear run at it in the home straight.

10pts win – Royal Champion @ 33/1