Tag Archives: Thursday

Betting

Thursday Selections: October, 10th 2019

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kempton

7.30 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Lightning Charlie has fallen to a career lowest handicap mark and looks poised for a big run with top jockey Jim Crowley booked for the job.

The 7-year-old isn’t the force of old, but now dropping to class 5, having dropped 15lb in his handicap mark since the beginning of the year, even though he has ran with credit in higher class a number of times this summer, returns to the All-Weather where’s posted six times in his career topspeed ratings of 70 and higher.

There’s still life in Lightning Charlie as he showed back in August at Brigton, when a fair 4th in a decent class 4 contest, not beaten fat that day. The latest Ascot effort in big field can be forgiven.

Selection:
10pts win – Lightning Charlie @ 11/2 MB

……..

7.45 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Hat-trick seeking favourite Queen Of Kalahari should go really well and has a big shout to make it three on the bounce, though from a wide draw he’s one to oppose at short odds.

Much more interesting, enjoying a much kinder draw, suitable to his racing style, is Poeta Brasileiro. He’s ran really well since changing yards to David Brown, in the money the last two times over sprinting trips off a similar mark, having a big chance today, given those last two races he ran to a 62 tospeed rating as well, suggesting he’s certainly weighted to go close today.

Back at Southwell where he’s been placed before over the shorter 5f trip, this is only his third start on the fibresand and that offers a bit of upside. His sire has a super record here, and as Poeta Brasileiro has already proven he can go well here, there’s no worries on that front.

The colt has ran to a career highest 65 topspeed rating on the All-Weather last winter also, suggesting with his current form, current handicap mark and a top draw to leverage he’s a massive chance today.

Seletion:
10pts win – Poeta Brasileiro @ 10/3 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: September, 19th 2019

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3.00 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 1 Mile

Despite a big field this race is a rather uncompetitive one with only few appearing to be anywhere near what you’d describe as well-handicapped. There is no doubt, that when on a going day, Vive La Difference is surely one who is well-handicapped, though.

The 5-year-old gelding has been struggling to find his best for a while, certainly starting slowly on pretty much every occasion doesn’t help. At the same time a few performances have been promising this year, when not far beaten in competitive races at Wetherby or Ripon earlier this season.

Vive La Difference has fallen quite a bit in his handicap mark, now 10lb lower than he started the season. He ran twice in his career to topspeed ratings of higher than 70, and a number of times around his current handicap mark of 68, including this year.

That gives hope that today of a near career lowest mark he can run a big race with conditions sure to suit, particularly if first time blinkers can help sharpen him up at the beginning of the race.

Selection:
10pts win – Vive La Difference @ 11.5/1 MB

……

3.10 Pontefract: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

I was keen on Aiya the last time at Thirsk. Things didn’t pan out as hoped, but the gelding conveniently dropped another 3lb in the mark and also to a more suitable 1m 2f trip, I believe.

Most what I talked about in my analysis leading up to the Thirsk race still holds true today:

The 4-year-old was a little bit unlucky not get his head in front on grass yet, because he got close at Redcar when beaten by a neck back in May.  He ran to topspeed 80 in that mentioned Redcar race and clocked 77 on the All-Weather in the past.

With conditions likely to suit – fast ground and 10f delivered his career best of an 80 ORR and a TS 80 – and a decent draw, there is no reason why Aiya shouldn’t run a massive race today.

Selection:
10pts win – Aiya @ 10/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: September, 12th 2019

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Balty Boys

2.15 Epsom: Class 5 Handicap, 1m½f

Bombastic has not really honoured his name since last summer. Particularly his last four starts in the old season as well as this year have been poor. However, as a consequence he really dropped to a sexy mark now, one that makes him dangerous to oppose if on song.

Trip and ground will be fine today, Epsom of course always a slight question mark. But fact of the mater is that Bombastic ran four times to a higher topspeed rating than his current – career lowest – handicap mark.

With hot jockey Pat Cosgrave on board I can see him running a big race today, also with a bit of money already coming.

Selection:
10pts win – Bombastic @ 22/1 MB

……….

5.05 Epsom: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

This type of course really suits Swanton Blue, who is already a course and distance winner, doing so off 3lb higher than his current handicap mark twelve months ago.

The six-year-old has consistently clocked topspeed ratings that show he can is weighted to go close today, having achieved TS ratings of 64 and over on four occasions. He also ran to 62 only in July, suggesting he is as good as ever, and with the right conditions, i.e. his preferred downhill track, he’ll be contender today of a 63 handicap mark.

Swanton Blue gets the assistance of capable 5lb claimer Toby Eley, for whom this is the only ride today. I see this as another positive in a wide open race.

Selection:
10pts win – Swanton Blue @ 11/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: August, 29th 2019

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It’s my birthday today, so I’d love to  gift myself with a winner or two! August has been a kind month betting wise, hopefully it can end with a bang and lead us well into September, which historically has been a difficult one for me…. but then on the horizon looming larger and larger is the All-Weather season as well!

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4.10 Carlisle: Class 4 Handicap, 1 mile

I think the market got it wrong: Royal Shaheen, turned out quickly under a penalty should be a clear favourite at the top of the market. On old form he remains potentially well handicapped.

However I feel the market makes an even bigger mistake underestimating the chances of Zoravan, who’s been given a real opportunity by the handicapper to find his ways back to the winning ways.

He’s been placed a number of times this year already, of marks as high as 68. He also ran twice this season to topspeed rating of 66. Now dropped to a handicap mark of 64 again, of which he was only a neck beaten in a tight finish over course and distance back in June, shows he’s an obvious chance today and clearly overpriced.

Selection:
10pts win – Zoravan @ 10.5/1 MB

……

4.45 Carlisle: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

Large field, many horses sliding down the weights which makes this a competitive lottery. Nonetheless the one who stands out is Golden Guest. He’s falling down the weights as well, however, compared to most others here, he’s actually some good form in the book this season already.

He finished 3rd on twice this spring on the All-Weather, of a 4lb higher mark than what he’s now on turf, and still was an excellent runner-up of 72 back in September last year – on all possible ratings he’s pretty much as good on the sand as on turf, although his career best topspeed ratings come on turf, with 66 and 63.

With trip and ground fine, now down to a mark of 63, Golden Guest looks obviously weighted to go really close here. I think one can forgive his latest poor showing which came off a break.

Selection:
10pts win – Golden Guest @ 17/2 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: August, 22nd 2019

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4.15 York: Listed Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes, 1m 4f

This is a wide open race and the betting tells you as much. What’s intriguing: the vast majority of horses in here have yet to run fast – at least judged by topspeed ratings. You could possibly forgive the lightly raced fillies a bit more, although the likes of Frosty or favourite Search For A Song had chances when running in pretty decent races.

Hence the standout chance in this contest appears to be Frankellina. This daughter of the almighty Frankel has pretty decent form in the book, running in some hot races, while she is the only one in this field running to a 90+ topspeed rating – which is something I want to see from any serious contender in this class.

It’s her career best, which looks rock solid as she also run to 89 before, which still would be the highest TS rating achieved by any filly in the field.

This is in line with her official rating of 105, the highest of any filly in the field. Granted, Frankellina has not quite lived up to possibly high expectations at the start of season. She had won on her debut in her single start as a juvenile, but remains without victory this year in four starts.

A runner-up effort in the Musidora – which is questionable form to be fair – followed by a promising 6th place effort in the Oaks, a 6th place in the Ribblesdale and a slightly disappointing 4th here at York in a listed contest last month.

I would argue, though, those last three pieces are pretty fair form, given this race looks much easier. Also Frankellina will profit from drying ground at York today – the quick surface should benefit her chances and hopes that she truly stays the 1m 4f trip.

Selection:
10pts win – Frankellina @ 11/2 MB

……..

4.50 York: Class 2 Handicap, 7f

I’m a little bit late to the party but still feel there is significant juice in the price of Whitefountainfairy. Albeit this is a big field, it is not as competitive a handicap as other races this week.

Whitefountainfairy should, if having a clear run, take all the beating here. Really. Saying that in a 20-runner strong field feels weird but I guess anyone who can read and has half-decent eyesight will have seen what handicap mark the filly is and what tremendous run she produced at Goodwood last time out.

Most importantly, Whitefountainfairy is down to a super dangerous mark. Down to 85, she ran to higher topspeed in the past, has been falling gradually, while remaining relatively low mileage, actually not all that much disappointing in her last runs either.

She was brutally eye-catching at Goodwood lately. Losing the race in the starting gate, hitting it in fact once the gates opened, she lost a good deal of ground, which is far from ideal over 7f. She settled at the rear, but then in the final two furlongs weaved her way through, finishing so strongly, that surely with a better start she would have gone very close.

I believe, despite a higher grade, this today is actually an easier race. She also runs against her own sex, and a simpler track will be a bonus, so will be the decent ground.

Selection:
10pts win – Whitefountainfairy @ 7/1 MB

………

8.00 Leicester: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Mutabaahy is ripe for victory. He’s been running quite well this year without getting a deserved “1” credited to his name. This here will be his best chance. It really isn’t a good race and I feel this lad stands out.

He’s 2lb above his last winning mark, but 67 seems a more than fair mark for him. He has ran to 68 and 70 topspeed ratings in the past, in fact he ran to a career best when runner-up at Ripon.

One can argue Mutabaahy had chances of the same mark this season already. True, but he also run really well then in highly competitive races that have worked out strongly.

Track, trip and ground conditions will suit today. Back after a 4-wee-long break he’s hopefully fresh and ready to go. In saying that I am slightly worried by the drift in the betting – but it’s the risk I’m prepared to take.

Selection:
10pts win – Mutabaahy @ 9/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: August, 15th 2019

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4.45 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

The favourite Simba Samba is likely to go well here, but has to prove full effectiveness over the minimum trip yet. At a bigger price I’m much more intrigued by Arnoul Of Metz who is still a turf maiden, but has ran well in a number of races, often looking like a horse that just needs to get the right break to get his head in front.

Of course if a horse is “unlucky” again and again it probably is not down to luck and more to lack of talent. Arnoul Of Metz is not a classy individual, for sure. But he only missed out narrowly on the Wolverhampton All-Weather last month and got hampered or buried behind a wall of horses in his last two turf starts at Chepstow and Musselburgh.

On his current handicap mark of 54 he offers the potential to find a bit more, if things fall his way finally. He already ran to a 56 topspeed rating when finishing off strongly at Muselburgh in May, when arguably unlucky.

The fast ground is sure to suit. The usual 5lb claimer is back on board. There is plenty to like about Arnoul Of Metz in a pretty winnable race.

Selection:
10pts win – Arnoul Of Metz @ 9/1 MB

……

6.40 Chepstow: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Cool Strutter looks ready for a massive run tonight. The 7-year-old doesn’t win often, but has fallen to a really low mark that should see him being certainly well in against poor opposition.

He’s ran to higher top-speed ratings twice within his last seven starts, suggesting he is capable of doing better than a 48 handicap mark.

Conditions will likely suit Cool Strutter. He’s won with cut in the ground and has been multiple times places when it’s really soft. The 6 furlongs seem ideal in these conditions, and the track should favour his running style also.

The added bonus of a fair 5lb claimer in the saddle make this a standout betting proposition in my mind.

Selection:
10pts win – Cool Strutter @ 6.2/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: August, 8th 2019

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2.00 Haydock: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 1m

With Classic Charm out this appears a wide open race with barely anyone appearing to be well handicapped. The one who have more to offer is Sootability, though.

The 3-year-old hasn’t shown anything of note this yer yet, but as an April foal by Camelot she may still find some improvement with time. The fact she also ran to a topspeed rating of 68 on her final start in 2018 shows there is a least a bit of hope also.

After four poor showings in 2019 Sootability has dropped to a 65 rating now, she also drops down to class 5 for the first time and back to a slightly shorter trip, which in combination may well turn out to be a magical combination – at least in the context of this race.

Selection:
10pts win – Sootability @ 10/1 MB

…….

4.40 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

If Admodum would find back to some sort of form he’ll be in with a massive shout. In fact, this looks like the ideal race: a poor field, he drops further in the mark down to 60 now, a good 5bl claimer in the saddle plus most importantly fast ground!

If appetite for the game is still there I’m pretty confident the ground conditions will make a massive difference. The last time Admodum raced on a fast surface he won.

Obviously on old form he is massively well handicapped. But it is a concern the poor efforts he showed for more than a year. Albeit over potentially trips stretching him or ground not quite as suitable. Second start off a break for the new yard today, while the market speaks favourably – big shout.

Selection:
10pts win – Admodum @ 13/2 MB

……….

7.35 Newcastle: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 1m 4.5f

Soloist looks a possible improver for the switch to Tapeta as Camelot has quite a fine record on this surface, even more so with fillies. This 3-year-old also showed a bit of promise already when a good runner-up at Carlisle in June.

She ran to a topspeed rating 70 that day, so currently on 68 official rating, with potential to improve for the surface, as well a still being rather lightly raced, supports the notion that Soloist could be well handicapped today.

The drop in trip looks positive; only thing I worry about is the potential pace angle and that she may sit off the pace in a slowly run race. Otherwise there isn’t much to beat here and I suspect she is certainly better than a <70 mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Soloist @ 7/2 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: July, 25th 2019

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8.25 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Wide open contest but the one who’s quite intriguing is Oberyn Martel, particularly with De Sousa booked for the ride. If the 3-year-old could recapture any of his juvenile form, or for that matter, what he did on his seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton back in February, he’d have a massive chance.

This lad obviously went the wrong way and even of revised marks didn’t look like going close whatsoever over the last while. Nonetheless he remains of interest for me, now down to a highly dangerous mark.

He has a career best topspeed rating of 83 to his name, which tops anything in this field, and he has matched a 93 RPR on both turf and the All-Weather, which suggests he was not too long ago quite a decent horse – and legitimately rated way higher than right now.

Conditions should suit today. Top jockey in the saddle. Oberyn Martel is surely bound for a big ride if he still has the appetite for racing. On the other hand he could absolutely bomb out. It’s worth the risk at given prices.

Selection:
10pts win – Oberyn Martel @ 10/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: July, 11th 2019

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Newmarket July Course

2.25 Newmarket: Group 2 July Stakes, 6f

Exciting renewal with two potential stars in the lineup. Favourite Visinari certainly appeals as a top drawer in the making, having been so impressive on his debut when achieving a topspeed rating of 98!

However, at a short price, with a viable alternative top pitch against him, I’ll happily take him on with Coventry Stakes 3rd Guildsman. He also won pretty well on debut, running to TS 90, which is a sign of a top class horse, and proved that with an excellent performance at Royal Ascot, posting a 97 TS.

The ground is faster today than he has encountered yet, remains to be seen how he acts on it. So far Wootton Bassett offspring done well on fast ground and 6 furlongs, so concerns are more down to that we haven’t seen Guildsman racing on firm ground yet.

Selection:
10pts win – Guildsman @ 4/1 MB

………

5.10 Newmarket: Class 3 Handicap, 1 mile

Very few in this race appear to be well handicapped. That says Martineo could well be after a string of excellent performances, now stepping up to the 1 mile distance for the first time in quite a while.

He’s predominantly do his best over shorter distances – 6f and 7f in particular, on the All-Weather. I don’t think Martineo is less effective on turf, though, and the few times he ran over a mile he was competitive, also on pedigree the trip shouldn’t be an issue whatsoever.

He’ll need to settle, obviously, but this is only his sixth start on turf, having been in the money on four occasions. He’s ran to topspeed of 81 on the AW and 75 on turf in the past, so if there is any bit of improvement for the trip and surface, he could look a massive price this afternoon.

Selection:
10pts win – Martineo @ 17.5/1 MB

……..

7.15 Newbury: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Star Of War looks overpriced for a poor field for this class. The filly has shown some talent in the past, has been steadily improving and only was found out in tough competition at Royal Ascot lately. A steep drop in class will help today.

She showed fair form as a juvenile in three starts but really excelled at the beginning of this season, winning a Kempton maiden easily and following up with two nice runs in class 3 Handicaps over a mile.

The three-year-old steps up in trip to 10 furlongs for the first time. On pedigree she has a fair chance to get the distance. If that can eke out further improvement, than she’ll be well in here of a mark of 82, given she has ran to TS 83 already.

Selection:
10pts win – Star Of War @ 12.5/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: June, 27th 2019

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Newmarket July Course

It’s been quiet in my blog lately – down to rather intense work commitments and a subsequent well needed rest, including as little contact with laptops, mobile phones and any type of digital screens as possible – I saw Royal Ascot only from afar, meaning a few highlights in the evening, that was all.

No problem: betting wise the Royal meeting was a disaster all the last few years, so missing it from that perspective isn’t a bad thing. So back to bread and butter now, a bit more time on hand, slightly fresher after a mental break as well: roll on those low-grade handicaps from Monday to Friday….

I’ve got some other interesting content in the locker as well: writing some sort of a “betting manual”, ‘Golden Rules’ to take into account, to help those who love horse racing but struggle to get some half decent return on their investment to make better decisions in the future.

Nothing ground breaking. It’s all already there. Plenty of smart people – dare I say smarter than I am – have produced similar things. Though, from time to time people ask me how I do my betting, make decisions and win in the long-run – so this will be an answer to that….. to be released within the next two weeks, I presume.

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2.35 Nottingham: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

The only three-year-old in the field, Across The Sea, is an interesting contender is this wide open contest. She looks a rather outlandish price, if you forgive her a recent disappointing effort at Carlisle, when she was a well beaten favourite.

I trust she wasn’t right day, it was a race in bottomless ground also; Across The Sea ran a massive race on her seasonal reappearance three weeks earlier though, in a big field, finishing 4th not beaten by a lot, finishing second in her group.

She can race of 3lb lower today, in what may well turn out to be ideal conditions. It’s noteworthy that Across The Sea ran to a top speed rating of 74 as a juvenile, so down to a mark of 73, with potentially a bit of improvement still to be unlocked, this is a dangerous place to be in one would want to lay her.

Selection:
10pts win – Across The Sea @ 10.5/1 MB

…….

7.05 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

The change of yard will need to revitalize Amazing Alba; if it does the filly looks poised for a big run. Her recent form doesn’t suggest she is close to win, on the other hand, even leaving a first start for trainer Alistair Whillains aside, she drops to a tasty handicap mark.

Still generally low enough mileage to believe she isn’t a finished article yet, even though Amazing Alba is winless in eight career starts, she was in the money half the time. Further to this, she ran to a top speed rating of 69 on debut last year, suggesting she has a bit of talent.

Without winning, she ran to a 63 TS ratings in her final start as a juvenile, giving the clear indication that her now revised mark of 61 does provide her a massive chance, as long as the appetite for racing is still somewhere lurking inside her.

Selection:
10pts win – Amazing Alba @ 5/1 MB