Tag Archives: paddy k

Saturday Selections: 21st January 2023

Two (betting) days in row a winner – Seesawing done it the hard way from the front, but had enough in hand to hold on.

The stiff 6 furlongs at Newcastle suited and his stamina for a bit further clearly helped as t looked a fast pace, especially as he wasn’t the sharpest out of the gate and run a race to the car park before the actual race on the polytrack!

Not quite the same story for Ustath, who led on the stands’ side but wasn’t able to hold on and finished 2nd eventually. A fair performance, but ultimately a bit disappointing that he wasn’t able to prevail in this poor contest as the top rated horse.

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3.45 Southwell: Classified Stakes, 6f

I said on Tuesday I wouldn’t give Paddy P another chance beyond the race that took place that evening…. well here we are. It’s truly the last chance my dear friend Paddy K.

He remains a maiden after 17 runs and call me stupid I still very strongly feel he is cherry ripe to win a race. Not much from what I said on Tuesday has changed; in fact, I feel only even stronger after a clearly unfortunate run that saw him finish a 1½ lengths beaten fifth.

It was an eye catching run – yet again – although one that was probably lost in the first furlong rather than in the penultimate one when Paddy P was badly short of room and saw his momentum stopped.

Despite a low draw, jockey PJ McDonald wasn’t decisive enough when the space in and around him tightened only moments after the gate opened. He didn’t push through the rapidly closing gap right in front of him, instead had to settle much further off pace than excepted and surely wanted.

Paddy K didn’t like it. He pulled for his head for the first half of the race. He travelled well into the home straight, though finding himself right beside the eventual winner approaching the two furlong marker.

Again a split-second decision went wrong, as Tathmeen, who went on to win the race, went to the outside while Paddy K stayed in the middle. One got a gap before it was too late, the other only when it was too late.

Eventually, a furlong from home, Paddy K got an opening, and it’s credit to him that he got going again. He didn’t have all that much left in the tank, after the early exertions, though.

He caught the eye a few times in the last weeks and months. Obviously a tricky sort, who needs things to fall his way. However, Tuesday represented only his second opportunity over 6 furlongs on the All-Weather – I feel it’s the ideal scenario for him; so over the same CD here in an even weaker race from a super draw with a favourable pace scenario he is a massive chance.

Ustath is here too. I do like him a little bit more over 6 furlongs these days. He’s a top chance from his low draw and not much competition for the lead. But he’s a short price and the fact he wasn’t able to win on Friday is probably a reflection of the fact that he is not much better than his current mark.

In this poor Classified Stakes race, running to that sort of rating may be good enough. I simply think Paddy K has a bit more scope over this CD and is a much better price. That says I do hope he moves forward to track Ustath. No excuse this time.

10pts win – Paddy K @ 7/1

Tuesday Selections: 17th January 2023

8.00 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Surprise Picture should have a cracking chance in this field from the #1 draw back over 7 furlongs. He dropped 6lb since his eye catching run over this trip at Wolverhampton in a hot class 4 contest in November.

That day he was hurried up to move forward from the start, even though heh looked a bit awkward. He tracked the pace, but didn’t received an economical run before finding himself short of room 1f from home when coming with a challenge.

He caught the eye earlier in November, too, when caught wide, and again received a seriously uneconomical ride, and he followed up with another strong run over this CD mid-December. I can forgive the last 6f effort from a wide draw.

He ran multiple times ran to speed ratings of 68+ last year; so down to am mark of 64, having shown good form lately, gives him a superb chance as he drops in grade as well.

10pts win – Surprise Picture @ 10/1

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8.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

I am delighted to see Paddy K dropping in trip. It was obvious the last number of times that he just finds a way to get beat if he races beyond this distance. He’s certainly a tricky character, and his winless record tells the tale.

But down in trip, in a race that should suit from a pace scenario, with a good draw, off a career lowest mark, he looks seriously overpriced.

He caught the eye a few times – when seen the last time and only time on the All-Weather over 6 furlongs at Newcastle in October when he fought gamely despite having a far from ideal race.

He ran really well prior to this on his final turf start of the 2022 campaign as well, and followed up with a number of solid runs on the sand over 7 furlongs, before running his possibly strongest race at the end of November at Kempton.

His form has tailed off subsequently, and that’s a concern. But he doesn’t stay a mile and 7 furlongs is a stretch too; especially when he pulls hard and goes hard from the front, as he did the last time. I think, with that in mind, those last two runs can be forgiven.

Now, you don’t want to make constantly excuses for a horse still without a career win after 16 starts. He is a seriously tricky horse. Can pull, can hang, can mess up at the gate, but clearly he also on a good mark, if he can run to anywhere near the level of form he showed toward the end of last year, now down in trip.

I won’t give him any more chances beyond this. 6 furlongs from a good aw with what could be an ideal scenario with Dapper Man possibly giving him a lead; he’ll never find a better chance to get his head in front, ever.

10pts win – Paddy K @ 15.5/1