Tag Archives: May

Betting

Saturday Selections: 28th May 2022

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3.39 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Marselan should have a good chance to outrun his odds in this open contest. The wide draw is a real concern, given he isn’t a lightning fast starter. But he could be really well handicapped today and may benefit from a red hot pace with many of the rivals keen to be on the front foot.

The 4-year-old was a major eyecatcher last time out. That day he raced as part of a duo isolated on the stands’ side. The pair was lengths behind the main bunch and had plenty to do with two furlongs to go. Marselan found plenty to finish much the strongest to grab 2nd place. He also achieved a career best 60 topspeed rating.

This was the first time after a wind operation. The loss of form last year can most likely be attributed to those issues.

He won of 65 and 67 last summer over 7 furlongs. Now down to 62 he’s obviously well handicapped with the breathing issues rectified. 7furlongs on fast ground could be his optimum – so he’s a play for me today.

10pts win – Marselan @ 10/1

…………..

5.00 Beverley: Class 6 Handicap, 7.5f

Cobra Kai couldn’t have been unluckier at Musselburgh earlier this month when he got a horrible trip in the closing stages yet was only beaten in a photo eventually.

The handicapper was lenient and has added only 2lb to the mark for that massive effort that should have seen him win potentially with a bit in hand, which means he should still be a well handicapped today.

The race comes soon enough, which is a question mark. Otherwise I feel the favourite is worth taking on. The Covex Kid won well on the All-Weather and could improve, but this is a different test under a 6lb penalty today.

Cobra Kai been a somewhat unlucky horse in his career, still a maiden, catching the eye a few times. Before the huge lto run he caught my eye at Musselburgh in April over 7 furlongs when he was hampered early on, lit up as a result and still ran a fine race.

The fast ground poses no problems today, the #1 draw is fine and Buick booked is a major bonus given the poor decision making by Mullen was a key reason for Cobra Kai still being a maiden.

10pts win – Cobra Kai @ 4.8/1

Eyecatchers

Eyecatchers #9 2022

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the last seven days of racing. These individuals look ready to win a race sooner rather than later given the right conditions.

Brilliant Blue
20/05/22 – 1.35 Goodwood:

Awkward start but wasn’t help by the isolated #1 draw. Was about to move forward when badly hampered on the inside around the 6 furlong marker. Keen afterwards. Made excellent progress from three furlongs out. Looked like coming with big run before fading.

This was his seasonal reappearance. Possible lack of race fitness and mid-race keenness may have been the contributing factor to a lackluster finish.

Should be better than this. Showed promise as a juvenile in two races in Autumn – form worked out well as he finished around some higher rated individuals – before flopping on the All-Weather. The mile trip shouldn’t be an issue on pedigree.

Race Replay

Aeonian
20/05/22 – 3.40 Haydock:

Travelled toward the end of the small field, pretty keen early on, nearly bumped into rival. Slowly run race, eventual first and second – also lto winners – tracked the pace and quickened gradually from three furlongs out. He made good progress on outside once in the clear but couldn’t catch the leaders.

He was also quite heavily sweating on this seasonal reappearance. Given circumstances this was a fine performance against some good and experienced rivals.

Hasn’t been seen since August when winning hot Yarmouth Novice contest overcoming severe greenness. The form looks strong. he could be a smart prospect. May be prohibitive odds next time. Needs monitoring.

Race Replay

Glamorous Express
21/05/22 – 4.35 Goodwood:

Travelling very strongly in rear of the field. Was at a major disadvantage, though. Having to pass the entire field, still last two furlongs from home going well, eventually switched inside the final furlong and finishes easily the best.

Obviously needs step up in trip. Six furlongs should see him improve. Seven furlongs not out of question. Was still green and raw in most races last year. Hence wouldn’t be too harsh on judging his performances beyond the minimum distance in his juvenile campaign.

Won a Novice contest when last seen in 2021 at Bath, battling strongly. A mark of 80 looks fair for the moment, if he can improve for the trip and for race fitness.

Race Replay

Tomfre
21/05/22 – 1.40 York:

Led the field setting solid fractions. Started to come under pressure from over two furlongs out. Headed and eventually lost touch with those that finished in the placings. Stuck gutsily to the task regardless, didn’t fade away.

Strong performance, ran right to form and mark. Was runner-up of 105 OR last May at this track. Comes down to a more realistic marks now, currently 2lb below his last winning mark.

Looks in fine form, this performance confirmed as much. Ideally would love to see a few more pounds off. Needs certainly proper soft ground to be seen to best effect. He’s one to keep monitoring this season for the right circumstances.

Race Replay

Ey Up It’s Maggie
21/05/22 – 2.55 York:

Tracked the early pace, took over the lead halfway through and ran strongly to the line. Only headed and eventually beaten in the final 100 yards.

Really gutsy performance. Highly consistent filly. In the grip of the handicapper. Will always be vulnerable in this class off this mark. A few pounds off, drop in class and proper soft ground over the minimum trip will be really interesting. Wait for it.

Race Replay

Bonus
21/05/22 – 7.15 Lingfield:

Crossed over toward the rails soon after the start and travelled at the end of the midfield group for the most part. Had a lot to do form this position over two furlongs out while the winner enjoyed the perfect run being up with the pace and was also well handicapped. Didn’t have the pace to challenge when gaps opened over a furlong from home but finished well under hands and heels.

He’s still a few pounds above his last winning mark but starts to get some assistance from the handicapper. I feel this run confirmed his wellbeing. Any additional drop in the ratings combined with racing over 7 furlongs on proper soft ground will spark my interest.

Race Replay

La Yakel
22/05/22 – 1.30 Nottingham:

Was away a bit slowly from the widest draw, settled eventually in rear. Still trailed over two furlongs out going very strongly. Didn’t get out for a clear run until about 1.5f from home. Quickened nicely and grabbed third place on the line having been tenderly handled.

This was his debut. He was gelded already back in March but must have some talent. Was a £28,000 foal but changed hands a year later for £120,000 to Shadwell. He will likely improve plenty fold for stepping up to 10 furlongs given his breeding.

The form could be quite useful. The odds-on winner had more experience and tasted success the last time. Given first and second where always prominent and La Yakel made such a good impression from the rear of the field suggest he could be closely matched with the winner. Needs monitoring for the next starts.

Race Replay

Kaasirr
22/05/22 – 3.05 Nottingham:

Travelled well enough in the final third of the field. Looked poised from three out, not clearest of runs from over two furlongs out, in a tight spot. Eventually fades.

I imagine this was a strong race for this class and will work out well in the long-run. He’s got a few solid pieces of form to this name, especially a close runner-up effort behind Al Nafir (who was 2nd behind Cash on debut) last year on his second career start.

His three-year old campaign has been rather disappointing so far. He was fancied in all three races, hang his chances away at Southwell and finished tamely the last two times. I feel a mile is the maximum of his stamina, though.

He comes down to a dangerous mark I reckon. Perhaps some different form of headgear could be interesting. A drop to a mile is key. I would also be interested in 7 furlongs with a bit of ease in the ground.

Race Replay

Orbaan
22/05/22 – 5.05 York:

Settled in rear of the field going well. Travelled much the strongest in the home straight, hard on the bridle, poised to be unleashed for a winning move. Couldn’t get out, though. Repeatedly short of room. No chance whatsoever.

Is an infrequent winner but has ran numerous times really well in defeat. Big run when 5th in last years Lincoln, placed in the summer off a mark off 94 twice.

Now down to a 87 OR, he looks seriously well handicapped if he gets his conditions: a mile at York or Doncaster or generally a relatively flat straight course. He also goes well over 7 furlongs with significant cut in the ground. He looks ready for a big win.

Race Replay

Arab Cinder
23/05/22 – 1.10 Wolverhampton:

Had to overcome the widest draw, outpaced early on and trailed the main body of the field by quite a margin. Made good progress from halfway, in touch turning for home and loomed dangerously. Couldn’t get a clear run, kept inside by rival the entire home straight until dramatic move toward the inside at the final furlong marker.

Would have gone really close with a clear run most likely. This was her Handicap debut and she showed significant improvement from her three qualifying runs.

As a full-sister to a 1m 6f winner who stayed 2 miles, she is likely to get better the further she goes. 7 furlongs is clearly too short therefore it’s noteworthy how well she ran here. The family isn’t overly successful on the ratings front but most win races.

With that in mind I don’t have massive confidence that she can repeat this performance over shorter than 10 furlongs. The pace was likely a big help for her staying on so well. If she moves up in trip I’ll be really interested. One to monitor.

Race Replay

Eddie The Beagle
23/05/22 – 2.20 Leicester:

Outpaced early on, possibly still green, had to be niggled in early parts of the race. Travelled okay into home straight and tried to make progress from back of the field having loads to do. Multiple times stopped and short of room. Ran on a bit late under easy ride.

Seasonal reappearance. Showed bit of progress on second last start last November. Dam won over 1m 4f for the same yard. Would expect this lad to be competitive if he steps up to that sort of distance.

Race Replay

Crownthorpe
24/05/22 – 7.00 Newcastle:

Travelled in rear initially, seemingly not going all that well. Moved into midfield and outpaced over 2 furlong out when the pace increased. Seemed to come with a late move inside the final furlong but badly hampered half a furlong from home. Winner was long gone at that stage though.

He was hampered and short of room on his seasonal reappearance at Redcar, too. Finished the race okayish from the back of the field. The form looks very strong.

Lost form toward the second half of last season. Has fallen significantly in his mark since two subsequent placed efforts in class 2 Hansicaps off 88 and 89 in May and June 2021.

Down to a 74 rating now, he should be really well handicapped in the right conditions. A mile with cut in the ground could be that. He requires a solid pace to be seen to best effect, I feel.

Race Replay

Reckon I’m Hot
24/05/22 – 5.40 Lingfield:

Caught wide from the #11 draw early on, travelled pretty well into the home straight, going better than most, couldn’t find instant acceleration when finding daylight over 1 furlong out. Perhaps ran out of gas too.

Seven furlongs is probably too far. She was quite unlucky not to win over the minimum trip at Lingfield back in February when she looked to have it won, only be caught late on the line.

Subsequently badly hampered at the start at Chelmsford, she ran better than the result suggested, while she bumped into a very well handicapped winner at Wolverhampton.

She looks capable of winning off her current mark. Would quite like to see her over 6 furlongs on turf.

Race Replay

Billy Wedge
24/05/22 – 8.05 Newcastle:

A bit slowly away, settled in rear, although seriously keen early on. Jockey had to take pulls multiple times. Steered from the middle toward the stands’ side and back again over 3f out. Seemed to travel extremely strongly approaching the 2f marker, still hard on the bridle, only then switched to the widest outside. Finished much the strongest.

Possibly unlucky not getting the clearest of runs but also seemingly a rather conservative ride given. Ran really well at Redcar in April on his comeback run after a near year long break.

Couldn’t repeat, although perhaps mitigating factors. This latest performance shows he is still very much capable of winning. On past form potentially well handicapped if the handicapper doesn’t react too harshly. Was Newcastle winner over 6f of a mark off 52, running to topspeed 55 in February 2021.

Best form on the All-Weather and over 7 furlongs. Rating wise not too far behind what he has achieved on turf, though; however, without winning. I don’t see turf as such a big negative with that in mind. But needs careful monitoring of market and jockey booking. Will require proper soft ground if to be considered on turf.

Race Replay

Thrave
25/05/22 – 3.10 Beverley:

Restrained early on and settled in last pace a few lengths off the main body of the field. Good progress from 4 furlongs out on the inside but headway stopped in home straight. Repeatedly short of room right to the end, while looking poised to win the race if a gap would open.

Ran better on two occasions this season since coming back from a break. Looks poised judged on this, though from a handicapping perspective loos matched with best form from last season.

As eyecatching as this performance was I want to see a couple pounds off the mark. Off 65 or lower at a track that doesn’t favour front runners. 7f-1m fine. The shorter distance not on fast ground. Monitor. Engaged this Friday at Pontefract.

Race Replay

Van Gerwen
25/05/22 – 6.25 Ripon:

Travelled in midfield in a compact field. Perhaps a little bit flat footed entering last three furlongs when pace increased. Found some momentum and looked ready for a challenge but was repeatedly short of room until nearly the very final moment of the race.

Probably ran right up to mark and best of his 2021 form. Won off the same mark last October and ran to topspeed 62, 65 and 67. With that in mind he has clearly proven his wellbeing – important for a 9-year-old.

At the same time he is not overly well handicapped right now. Merely handicapped to what he’s capable of running to. It’s worth waiting one or two more runs to see how his mark is going to be (hopefully) reduced. Is engaged Friday, 27th May at Pontefract.

Race Replay

Twice Adaay
25/05/22 – 8.30 Ripon:

Prominent early on, chased the pace in second line. Lost position when racing room became increasingly tight and was short of room at 2 furlongs from home. Had to delay challenge. Met interference at final furlong marker too. Switched toward the inside and moved nicely through a gap to finish well.

Sole win came over 5 furlongs in soft conditions last year of a mark off 54. Ran to topspeed 56 on turf and 58 on firesand. Ran quite well on a number occasions this year. Consistency means she’s in the grip of the handicapper right now.

If she falls below 65 again and over the minimum trip on proper soft ground she’ll be really interesting.

Race Replay

Lady Lavina
26/05/22 – 1.20 Ripon:

Travelled really strongly and like the potential winner for the most parts of the race. Tried to find a gap from over two furlongs out. Short of room until very late when finally space opens up and she finishes really strongly, even though runs into traffic close to the finish once again.

May filly on debut here seemed ready despite drifting out to 20/1. Most likely will benefit from step up in trip to 7 furlongs. One to see where connections go next. May be too obvious to back next time. Worth to keep an eye for when she moves beyond six furlongs.

Race Replay

Field Of Honour
26/05/22 – 3.50 Ripon:

Pulls really hard pretty for the majority of the race. A slow pace didn’t help. Received a good educational ride. As pace leading trio kicks on four from home he’s kept at the rear of the field behind horses. Pulled out 3f from home and makes eye catching progress to about the final furlong marker.

Debut run for this April foal. Quite well bred, likely to be seen to best effect if stepping up to 10 furlongs. needs to learn to settle. Looks to have a bit of talent given the way he travelled in the home straight and make nice progress.

Will not get involved before going handicapping unless stepping up to 10 furlongs. One to monitor for next entries.

Race Replay

Betting

Friday Selections: 27th May 2022

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2.30 Chepstow: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

This could be the right opportunity for 9-year-old Secretfact to strike again. I have been waiting for the right conditions for the veteran sprinter ever since his interesting comeback run at Bath in April when he shaped a lot better than the 7/7 result.

He followed up with a number of solid performances, even though things didn’t always go his way, including in a strong front-running CD run last month off a 5lb higher mark than today.

His most recent 4th place finish at Bath has once again confirmed his wellbeing. On ground too slow he had to do all the donkey work from the front but only went down fighting in the final furlong.

He dropped another couple of pounds in his rating today. Clearly he’s on a dangerous mark, especially on fast ground. I hope the warm weather helps to make the ground even firmer come race day. The faster the better for him.

This is a competitive race. Others are dangerous too. I do have slight concerns that the ground won’t be quite fast enough eventually. it’s a risk to take given he’s a CD winner, proven wellbeing, ran well the last few weeks, has a top jockey on board and looks overpriced here.

10pts win – Secretfact @ 11/2

……..

8.25 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Kraken Power is really well handicapped today if on a going day after dropping another couple of pounds in the ratings. He caught my eye at Ayr four weeks ago when he made a big move mid-race on the outside. He couldn’t sustain the effort but it was the sort of spark needed to imagine he can win a race again.

He ran better than the bare on his seasonal reappearance at Thirsk. You can discount the most recent Hamilton run. There was no pace early on, he got a bit bumped or at very least found himself in a tight spot on the rails soon after the start, was lit up and as a consequence too keen in soft conditions.

The drying good to soft ground today shouldn’t be an issue. He’s drawn wide but close to possible pace setters, which should give him an ideal scenario to launch his move in the closing stages.

William Buick booked for the ride is eyecatching too. He’s 3/3 for Jim Goldie in 2021/22. Kraken Power has talent – he was rated as high as 86, was placed in good races of 82 last season, as well as ran to topspeed 80. With that mind mind, he is seriously overpriced today.

10pts win – Kraken Power @ 10/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 23rd May 2022

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After an excellent last week with three winners – the cherry on the cake was clearly backing Early Voting to win the Preakness Stakes – here’s hoping for the positive trend to continue. I’ve got two selections for today.

4.25 Leicester: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Sense Of Security was a massive eyecatcher at Bath over a mile, although she pulled hard for the majority of the race, indicating she may enjoy a drop in trip. Hence I felt it was an odd choice to go up in distance the last time. She duely failed to get home over 9.5f at Wolverhampton, running way too freely.

She drops down to 7 furlongs today and that looks the right decision. With the rain coming this afternoon the jury is out whether she likes any sort of give in the ground. It’s a question mark. But that aside, she looks ready to romp home with a clear run.

I base this claim on her penultimate Bath performance over the mile trip, where she travelled keenly in midfield for the majority of the race. Yet she appeared to go strongly turning for home, the jockey taking a pull over 3 furlongs out seemingly with tons in hand. She was multiple times a clear run denied and no doubt with clear passage she’d have gone close.

Sense Of Security has shown promise as a juvenile last last year, as she was placed over 5.5f at Bath in an eye-catching performance. She was a good third at Kempton on her seasonal reappearance last month where she ran to topspeed 61.

Racing off 63 today with a strong jockey booking I feel she has a major chance, even though this is a hot little contest for a class 6 on a Monday afternoon. Either way she’s seriously overpriced.

10pts win – Sense Of Security @ 9.5/1

………

7.40 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

I was interested in The Rain King the last time when he finished down the field at Lingfield eventually. He was a big drifter in the betting on the day. In a race with little early pace he was caught out without cover way too soon as well.

He returns today to Windsor where he seriously caught the eye on his penultimate run. He was an unlucky horse not to win, or at the very least got much closer than a 1.5 lengths beaten 3rd place. He outran a 22/1 price tag that day, first up after a break and wind operation. The form looks solid and he returns to the same CD today.

The Rain King was an expensive £250k yearling and clearly has ability. He was a strong 3rd on debut in a hot maiden when trained in Ireland. Obviously he hasn’t fulfilled the early promise, moved over to Alexandra Dunne and didn’t show much for her until this recent Windsor run on the back of the wind op.

Obviously he needs to take another step forward now, confirm the promise from that penultimate run and prove that he still got the appetite for the game. He’s yet to run beyond topspeed 65, although I feel there are mitigating factors, as outlined before.

He’s drawn in #11 today, which isn’t ideal. But at least he should get a clear run on the outside presumably. If he’s as well handicapped as I feel he possibly is, then he should have enough in hand to win from there.

10pts win – The Rain King @ 11/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 21st May 2022

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4.48 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

An uncompetitive race that screams longshot. The favourite Aquamas goes for a hat-trick and may have found a great opportunity but I don’t think he’s overly well handicapped of his revised mark.

From the bottom of the weights – in fact one pound out off the weights – The Retriever makes appeal to me. There are clear risks attached to his chances – his turf form in particular is concerning – but there is a case to be made for him.

The 7-year-old has is on a good stretch of form on the All-Weather. He got almightily close over 7f at Wolverhampton last time out and was only caught late in March over the same CD as well. The form of those two races worked out quite well in the meantime. Especially last month when he grabbed the lead from the widest draw and got only caught on the line rates a big performance

As for his poor turf form: I look for some hope to his penultimate turf run at Catterick back in June 2021 when he was caught wide, always travelling on the outside of the field, but some late headway to finish in 4th place.

I feel conditions today will be just about right at a track that favours the speed horses. He’s got to overcome the widest draw, which is a negative given there is also competition for the lead.

Nonetheless, off a basement mark with the additional assistance of excellent 7lb claimer Aiden Brookes in the saddle The Retriever looks a whole lot more dangerous than the price suggests – granted he’s here to run on merit.

10pts win – The Retriever @ 14.5/1

Eyecatchers

Eyecatchers #8 2022

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the last seven days of racing. These individuals look ready to win a race sooner rather than later given the right conditions.

Saulire Star
13/05/22 – 6.45 Hamilton:

Solid start from double-figure draw. Settled a few lengths off the pace setter, travelling strongly. Smooth headway into the home straight, heading the leader about two furlongs from home. Eventually had to pay tribute for chasing the hot pace when fading in the final furlong.

He did best of those up or close to the pace. The winner and runner-up both came from off the pace. He is unlucky to be a maiden after 16 career runs having been hampered/short of room the last two times at crucial stages of the race. Especially the lto performance is noteworthy for the way he finished the race.

Down to a mark of 48 and unlikely that the handicapper will be harsh after this run, he stays up to 10 furlongs, though, perhaps doesn’t want it genuinely soft over that trip. I believe he’s ready to win a race.

Race Replay

Scorpio
13/05/22 – 2.40 Newbury:

Bit slowly away, also drawn low no advantage given where the race developed. Travelled well enough in midfield but looked for an opening from over two furlongs out. No instant change of gear when gap opened with about a furlong to go but kept going nicely to finish well in 5th without being asked too many questions.

Fine debut run given circumstances as she lost her left fore shoe in the closing stages. This could be pretty solid form. She likely ends up as a miler. Will be interesting if going up in trip. Needs monitoring for the next starts. Should be one for handicaps.

Race Replay

Tammani + Ramiro
13/05/22 – 4.45 York:

Tammani settled in rear and had loads to do entering the home straight. Tried to move toward stands’ side over two furlongs out. Repeatedly short of room until late when he finishes incredibly well on the inside under hands and heels.

Even a blind man would have spotted this eyecatching run. He’s obviously down to a really good mark, having been a Listed winner at two and Group 3 placed at three. Could be too obvious for nto.

He’s not ran to a topspeed rating matching his current handicap mark but that is most likely because he used to race in France until last summer where TS is often not available.

He’s a tricky horse, nonetheless, and I am prepared to wait for ideal conditions. That is a mile on soft ground. I would also consider 7 furlongs with a stiff finish. Soft ground is non-negotiable, though.

Ramior was also an unlucky horse in the race. He was touch slowly away, but then appeared to be going strongly approaching the 2 furlong marker. Behind a wall of horses he had to delay his challenge and was severely short of room in a tight spot a furlong from home. He was eased and reportedly lost his action after the 1f incident.

This was his best run since moving to Brian Ellison. He won races of marks of 74 and 78 the last two seasons in Ireland. In that context I am not too bothered that his best topspeed rating is only 73.

Ease in the ground is key for him too. Another reduction of the mark and 7 furlongs with a bit of cut in the ground is the scenario I am looking for.

Race Replay

Mobarhin
13/05/22 – 1.40 Newmarket:

Had the perfect draw to grab the rail and did so right from the start. Moved forward and set a red hot pace having the entire field on the stretch 3 furlongs out. Headed eventually but kept going gutsily right to the line.

He looks capable of staying 7 furlongs with a more conservative ride but perhaps 6 furlongs is his optimum. Won in January over the trip on the All-Weather of a mark of 70, achieving a 74 topspeed rating.

I believe he has still a bit of scope on turf, especially over 6 furlongs on decent ground. Ideally he gets a bit assistance from the handicapper before backing him.

Race Replay

Gumdrop
14/05/22 – 4.05 Thirsk:

Travelled initially on the outside quite keenly, perhaps being quite fresh on his comeback run. Was going well enough, even though perhaps a little bit outpaced halfway through at the rear of the field. Not the clearest of runs from two furlongs out. Finished nicely under hands and heels late.

First run since September 2020. Gelded in the meantime. Promising return to the track. Drifted out 18/1 on the day. Won of a mark of 75 and ran to topspeed 81 as a juvenile at Chester. Still lightly raced and seems to retain ability.

Should enjoy a step up in trip on pedigree. There is plenty of stamina on the dam side, although the dam only won over 6 furlongs herself. Should be monitored next time in the betting.

Six furlongs perhaps with some ease in the ground can work but I wouldn’t mind the step up to 7f. Also need a bit help from the handicapper before I’m really interested.

Race Replay

Dusky Prince
16/05/22 – 4.25 Redcar:

Raced right in the middle of the pack, slightly niggled halfway through as pace was red hot but kept going and looked in with a big shout if only a gap would have opened. He couldn’t get a run right until the very end. Wasn’t needlessly knocked about even when some space opened up late.

The form book might suggest that he’s in the grip of the handicapper. But I feel he’s probably been quite an incredibly unlucky horse on the All-Weather in his last three runs.

He caught the eye on all those runs, especially at Newcastle (badly hampered when most likely coming with the winning move) in February and Lingfield when he got too far behind but was flying home with a sub 11 second final furlong.

Some of the bad luck is self-made, though. It is absolutely clear that he’s not quite speedy enough for the minimum trip and that is a reason why he meets trouble. Clearly he needs to move up to 6 furlongs.

The dam was a winner over 6 furlongs as well as twice a winner over 7 furlongs on the All-Weather. He tried 6 furlongs only twice before and that was in really hot company. So there is plenty of scope for better, both on turf or All-Weather. He’s absolutely ripe to win if he moves up in trip.

Race Replay

Gurkhali Girl
16/05/22 – 4.15 Carlisle:

Despite being quite keen in the early part of the race she travelled well into the home straight looking to have a big say in the outcome of the race. Bit inconvenienced by a horse crossing over from the right side around 2.5 furlongs from home. Tries hard to get going but runs completely out of energy in the end.

Was quite keen last time out in a maiden over a mile at Ayr on her first run since July 2021 but travelled notably well there. Didn’t get the clearest of runs on the inside either. Faded badly but was entitled after being off the track for such a long time.

In these two runs she caught my eye for the way she travelled strongly into the home straight. She cost £50k as a yearling and is quite well bred. I assume she needed the run these two times and soft ground accentuated her tired finish here at Carlisle.

The Iain Jardine yard is in poor form. it’s something to watch out for. A mile looks possibly an ideal trip on pedigree. The way she can be fresh and pull for her head is a concern. On the other hand she’s going to drop to an interesting mark now. The jury is out whether she can perform on soft ground as her sire did.

Race Replay

Corinthia Knight + Firenze Rosa
16/05/22 – 5.10 Windsor:

Corinthia Night was outpaced from an early stage, hampered over two furlongs out, wandering around behind a wall of horses in order to get a clear run. It only opens up inside the final furlong when he runs on well for a 5th place finish.

He’s fallen dramatically in the weights in the last months. It was only back in July 2021 when he won back to back, including of a mark of 92 running to a near career best topspeed rating of 92.

Ever since he’s hardly ever shown much. Now down to a 73 rating, this most recent performance was a first proper sign that there’s still some spark. In my mind he wants 6 furlongs these days, though. He acts on soft but I wouldn’t back him unless it’s reasonably fast ground.

Firenze Rosa travelled pretty well until about the halfway stage. Was then stuck behind horses. Briefly tracking the initial winner but not getting through on the inside. The inexperienced jockey perhaps also not quite brave enough to take a gap on the stands’ side until very late. Finishes well enough under an easy right suggesting there was more left in the tank.

She was 1lb out of the weights here, yet I hope the run motivates the handicapper to give here a bit leeway.

She won of a mark of 56 in soft here at Windsor and she finished the turf season in October with a really strong runner-up effort of a 57 mark running to a 57 TS rating that day.

If she drops below a mark of 55 over 5 furlongs on proper soft ground she should have a really good chance.

Race Replay

D Day Odette
16/05/22 – 7.40 Windsor:

Went left at the start, then settled in last trailing the field. Still last approaching three furlongs out. Eyecatching progress on the bridle when switched to the outside of the field challenging two furlongs from home. Possibly a bit tired in the closing stages after the big effort.

Second start. Seasonal reappearance. Frist time with a tongue tie. Changed yards in May. Purchased at breeze up for €58k. Should stay 10 furlongs on pedigree with relative certainty.

One to monitor next time. Most likely one for handicaps when moving up in trip.

Race Replay

Kelapa
17/05/22 – 1.30 Brighton:

Out of the #1 draw, bit keen early on travelling on the inside okay and looked in with a shout. Short of room 2f out, not getting a run, hampered at the final furlong marker. Gets some space late and finished nicely under an easy ride.

Handicap debut for the filly after three no-shows last year. 7 furlongs should be fine on pedigree. There is plenty of fast ground form in her line, so I reckon that will be ideal conditions. She may have enough speed for 6f too. Would prefer a stiff finish in that case, though.

Race Replay

Cabeza De Llave
17/05/22 – 1.20 Wolverhampton:

Appeared to be outpaced at stages in the first half of the race racing in midfield. Got back on the bridle and travelled well into the home straight. As the eventual winner kicked form he front he didn’t have the pace to challenge but kept to the task and wasn’t overly hard ridden. Finished well enough for 4th place on a day when it was certainly beneficial to be up with the pace.

Handicap debut and first outing in 2022. Expected to come on and learn from this. Certainly needs a step up to 6 furlongs. 7 furlongs looks possible on pedigree as well.

Race Replay

Shahnaz
17/05/22 – 3.50 Wolverhampton:

Awkward start and as a consequence at the backfoot right away, also outpaced early on. Flat footed from 4 furlongs out as pace increased again, turned wide and make impressive challenge on the outside of the field, finishing much the strongest visually and on the clock.

Interesting performance last time out at Nottingham too. Ran much better than result suggest in strong race. Had been handed tough assignment by handicapper with opening mark. Comes steadily down.

Last two performances suggest she can win. I like to see her up in trip to 10 furlongs again. Ideally the handicapper gives her an an opportunity.

Race Replay

Makyon
19/05/22 – 1.30 Wolverhampton:

He’s one who featured on the list last week. Ran in the meantime at Wolverhampton over an extended mile. That wasn’t interesting from a betting perspective. The trip is too far in my view.

He travelled very well at the back of the field, though, notably on the bridle right into the home straight. But not much got involved here, certainly not from the back of the field, and he certainly didn’t have a chance stuck behind tons of traffic.

Trainer has given a positive mentioning the last two times. He’s got another entry on the AW over 8.5 next week. I’ll maintain to wait for a drop to 6 to 7 furlongs on turf.

Race Replay

Lory
19/05/22 – 2.50 Wolverhampton:

Did a lot in the first half of the race racing around the first bend to dispute the lead on the outside. Travelled nicely until 3 furlongs out. Faded away in the closing stages but not asked a question either.

Former Andre Fabre and Godolphin horse, caught the eyes on two starts in France. Those races have worked out quite well. She hasn’t seen the whip in any of her three starts to date so it’s hard to gauge how much she would find if ever properly asked.

Seven furlongs seems to be as far as she would want it at this stage I reckon. Perhaps dropping down to six wouldn’t be an issue either. She’s going handicapping and is to monitor for her opening mark.

Freedom Flyer
19/05/22 – 3.50 Wolverhampton:

Wasn’t ideally positioned from his wide draw in rear of the field in a slowly run race. Eventual winner got a soft lead and everything caught napping in behind. FF travelled strongly into the home straight but locked behind horses only got really into the clear about a furlong from home which was to late. Finished well enough but not overly hard ridden, smart ride by jockey.

Continues to fall slowly in his mark. Comes down to a good rating. Went almightily close over CD in October of 64. Ran to topspeed 62 over CD before that, as well as TS 72 on turf.

Would be interesting to see him back on turf over 6 furlongs on decent ground of his current mark.

Bomb Squad
19/05/22 – 4.25 Wolverhampton:

Travelled in midfield, seemingly bit outpaced midway through, looking strong coming into the home straight, waiting for room to challenge. Consistently short of room, though, and badly hampered inside the final furlong, still finds momentum late to finish 2nd.

Runs consistently well on the All-weather and possibly in the grip of the handicapper on this surface. However will be really interesting back on turf on proper soft ground.

He has excellent form in those conditions over 6 furlongs. Given current wellbeing and strong form, he’ll be dangerous. Worth to wait for the right circumstances.

Betting

Thursday Selections: 19th May 2022

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3.50 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

A few look dangerously handicapped here but non more so than Jumira Bridge. He really caught the eye on his second run off a break over the minimum trip at this venue.

He was unlucky to be a clear run denied at a crucial stage of the race but he found his momentum again and finished much the strongest.

This was an excellent follow-up from a good comeback run in a seller over over the course and distance when he made eye-catching headway turning for home while carrying 10st.

He’s obviously a tricky customer, who can lose races at the gate and has fallen a long way down in the ratings. These last two performances suggest there is life in the 8-year-old, though.

Dropping down to class 6 and up to 6 furlongs he can race off bottom weight here from a good #2 draw. If he doesn’t totally mess up he hopefully finds himself in a decent position in midfield racing against the inside rail and then hopefully gets the gap when needed most.

The last time he ran at Wolverhampton over 6f in class 6 he won in impressive style, back in January 2021 of a 62 mark. He’s 12lb lower today – for a reason – but showed more enough lto to assume he will take a lot of beating if in the same form. I really feel he’s going to be cherry ripe.

10pts win – Jumira Bridge @ 5.2/1

…………

4.35 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Arlecchino’s Gift was a major eyecatcher ten days ago at Wolverhampton over 6 furlongs. He was caught wide from his outside draw and only dropped in with about tree furlongs to go. Yet travelled much the best entering the home straight but had the entire field to pass.

He appeared to find a small gap over a furlong from home but got badly squeezed and hampered, losing crucial momentum. He was brave to pull through and got gong quickly again, finishing the fastest home straight sectionals despite the trouble and being eased in the final 100 yards.

Starting issues prevented him from a more fruitful juvenile campaign, although he showed some talent. A gelding operation over the winter helped and thanks to being more professional at the start he’s finally winning races. He’s been progressive this year, wining twice and running well a number of other times.

When winning of a mark of 55 at Wolverhampton he appeared to have a bit in hand, which was confirmed by a 59 topspeed rating. There were excuses at Chelmsford subsequently when he was badly bumped at the start and was overly keen in a slowly run race.

This most recent performance adds to the picture that Arlecchino’s Gift continues to improve. Of a mark of 60 he could still be well handicapped given he ran to TS 59 with relative ease and caught the eye so dramatically last time out.

Question mark is the turf. He hasn’t really fired apart from the All-Weather. However, he hasn’t been on turf since his gelding operation and the clear improvement he’s shown since then. Breeding wouldn’t suggest that there are any issues with turf.

10pt win – Arlecchino’s Gift @ 9/2

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 17th May 2022

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2.50 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Two eyecatchers run here: Port Noir is back on the All-Weather with an excellent 7lb claimer in the saddle and has every chance to go close. However, He’s never won beyond a mark of 64 and hasn’t run to a higher topspeed rating than 64 either. Hence, as mentioned in Eyecatchers #7 I keep monitoring and wait for him to come down in the ratings.

The other one is Northbound who was a massive eyecatcher at Thirsk last month on his first outing in 2022. He travelled smoothly on the inside, still hard on the bridle approaching the final furlong but never got a run. He finished eye-catchingly well in one of the fasted final furlong splits despite being hard held.

He hasn’t won since his juvenile days, but has been competitive and placed numerous times last season without winning. He was placed of 65 and ran to Topspeed 58, 59 and 61 last year. He also has a career best 71 TS rating, albeit over the minimum trip.

His mark has fallen another 2lb in the meantime, now down to 58. He looks rather well handicapped, potentially with further scope on the All-Weather, having ran only twice on the sand. The dam won at Dundalk and the sire produces some fine All-Weather horses too.

The draw is a negative. He’s drawn too wide for my likening. The jockey isn’t the most positive booking either. But Northbound may have those additional pounds in hand to overcome it and make full use of bottom weight.

10pts win – Northbound @ 11.5/1

(Note: I wrote this piece last night and took the price in pieces throughout. Money is coming this morning, which is a positive sign. 10s still available in places which I’d personally still regard a great price.)

Betting

Monday Selections: 9th May 2022

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2.40 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Two of my eyecatchers run here but the market clearly speaks in favour of Pop Dancer. That’s the one I preferred looking at the race last night anyway. Secretfact will have another day on turf over fast 5f soon, hopefully.

The money has been coming for Pop Dancer all morning, and even though I missed all the big prices, the move gives me confidence today is the day.

The 5-year-old caught my eye in a wild 5 furlong sprint at Epsom last month which Mokaatil won. The form looks good through the winner and third having run well in the meantime.

That day Pop Dancer was one of those who travelled strongly but didn’t find a gap when needed at a crucial stage of the race. He also fell down the camber late, even though the bird was flown at that time anyway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Fs0MuYSsek&t=4s

Pop Dancer hasn’t set the world alight in the last year or so. Consequently he’s a long way down in the ratings. But I feel this most recent run was much better than the bare result. His previous topspeed ratings give him a great chance of his current 67 mark with his wellbeing confirmed.

He handles the All-Weather, is down in class 5 and has a good draw to attack the race from. I never like to see Luke Morris in the saddle and the stable form is a real concern. But there is more to like today than not about his chance with prices still too big.

10pts win – Pop Dancer @ 9/1

…………

4.20 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

The favourite remains potentially well handicapped and has been given a big chance by the handicapper to make it two wins from his last three runs. But he has to stretch out over a mile and had already three hard runs in about three weeks.

When Rum Going On won at Musselburgh two back Cobra Kai was big eyecatcher for me. He had a horrible race then, hampered in the early parts of the race and severely lit up, not getting a clear run in the home straight too, yet finishing well in third place given circumstances.

That was an excellent follow-up performance from his solid seasonal reappearance at Newcastle. Cobra Kai is certainly in fine form and appears to be improving.

He tackles the mile for the first time. I have not many worries on pedigree. He should stay and should find improvement for it. The key question is whether he can settle. He may burn out early. My hope is Andrew Mullen goes forward from his good draw and let the gelding find a rhythm.

Despite being a maiden, I have a strong feeling Cobra Kai is quite a bit better than a 49 official rating. If he can improve for the trip as I expect him to do he could make a mockery of this mark.

10pts win – Cobra Kai @ 15/2

Eyecatchers

Eyecatchers #6 2022

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the last seven days of racing. These individuals look ready to win a race sooner rather than later.

Main Target
29/04/22 – 7.55 Newcastle:

A touch slow out of the gates, pulled hard in the early stages of the race. Made impressive headway on the outside from 4 furlongs out posting fast sectionals. Contested lead two furlongs from home, then tired in the closing stages and not knocked about.

The way he travelled through the middle part of the race here is evidence that he’s better than the result. It was his first run since being gelded and he dropped down to 6 furlongs as well.

He continues to fall in the ratings, perhaps will do so further. He’s a lovely bred gelding. Even though he’s yet to run fast topspeed ratings I still feel a mark of somewhere around 70 could underestimate him if he can put it all together.

He is still lightly raced enough to hope for better, especially if he steps up in trip. A mile looks highly possible on pedigree. He needs to settle better, though. Headgear would be interesting.

Race Replay

Checkandchallenge
30/04/22 – 3.40 Newmarket:

Squeezed right after the start, possibly lit up from the early bump, was keen in phases. Still travelled well enough into the race, albeit away from the pace on the far side where – in my view – it was an advantage to race. In a pocket from three furlongs out, short of room 2 furlongs out. Eased afterwards.

He wasted too much energy early on and raced inefficiently, and wasn’t helped by how the race developed. He is a better colt than this 14/15 finish suggest.

He won the Burradon Stakes at Newcastle in really impressive style on only his second lifetime start after overcoming greenness on debut back in November at Wolverhampton.

Whether he is absolute top-class remains to be seen, but he can win some good races. Perhaps a step up to 10 furlongs would be beneficial, but another try over a mile would be worth a go for the moment, too.

Trais Fluors
30/04/22 – 2.05 Thirsk:

Had to overcome a wide draw and settled in rear after a good start. Travelled well into the home straight behind a wall of horses. Tried to switch to the outside for a clear run from 3 furlongs out but got boxed in. Switched back inside but still no luck. Finished easily on the bridle with seemingly plenty left in the tank.

Was eye-catching last time out at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance when he finished strongly with the fastest final furlong split despite not being overly hard ridden.

The 8-year-old is obviously well in himself and ready for a big run. He’s down to a 87 handicap mark but was able to win of 92 last summer, running to a 91 topspeed rating, which isn’t too far of his best form.

Race Replay

Dandy Dinmont
02/05/22 – 4.06 Beverley:

Made good progress throughout travelling notably well for the majority of the race, even though he looked a little bit keen in the first furlong. Was locked behind the leading horses, switched to the inside over one furlong out and finished well despite things being tight. Was the only one making a significant impression from off the pace.

Clear improvement from his seasonal reappearance which was better than the bare form suggest too. He starts to drop toward more realistic handicap marks especially with a claimer in the saddle.

He showed a bit of progress as a juvenile but got injured in August and only returned at Doncaster last month after 267 days off the track. I imagine 5 furlongs will be his optimum. Perhaps the All-Weather could be interesting as he’s a full brother to a Wolverhampton winner over the minimum trip.

Ideally I would love to see a couple pounds off the mark before taking a betting interest in him. A drop in trip and/or switch of surface may also be desired. Regardless, he’s still lightly raced, an April foal and looks one who can still improve.

Race Replay

Dark Vega
02/05/22 – 2.55 Curragh:

From her position in midfield toward the far side rail she had to negotiate a lot of traffic from 3 furlongs out, travelling behind a wall of horses. She stuck nicely to the task behind a wall of horses, moved around bravely through tight spaces and finished well giving the impression there as still quite a bit left in the tank.

This was only her second career start as well as her seasonal reappearance after she won on debut last autumn over course and distance. That form was franked by the runner-up Boundless Ocean, who ran last week in the 2000 Guineas.

The filly has been given time and didn’t turn into a Guineas filly as Jessica Harrington hoped she might do, but this highly compelling reappearance over 7 furlongs – a trip possibly a little on the sharp side now – was a great pipe opener and suggested she could be than her opening mark, especially if stepping up to a mile.

Race Replay

On The River
03/05/22 – 6.10 Wetherby:

Up with the pace early on and seriously keen particularly around the first bend when nearly running away with his jockey having to take a big pull. Comes under pressure from three furlongs out but is a clear run denied to move forward and as a consequence loses his position. Finishes visually well while tenderly handled in the final furlong.

He won last year of a mark of 56 over 7 furlongs, was subsequently placed of 9lb higher. Starts to drop down in the ratings to what could soon be a really good mark.

Especially if he can find a little bit improvement for going up in trip. A mile looks quite possible on pedigree. I’ll be interested if he drops below 60 in the rating and tackles the mile for the first time, ideally not on fast ground, though.

Race Replay

Mutanaaseq
03/05/22 – 6.40 Wetherby:

He travelled in rear off the pace where the race would eventually develop thanks to slow early fractions. As the pace increased entering the home straight he got outpaced and looked bound for finishing last. Found another gear late to finish much the strongest visually and backed up by sectionals.

This was a clear return to form after a number of rather poor showings. He performed still quite strongly last year, won of a mark of 67, was placed of 72 and ran to topspeed 73.

Slowly comes down to a fair mark again. All his best form is over 6 furlongs, hence recent runs over 7f have to be seen in that context. It may take one or two more runs, but if he drops to a mark of 67 or lower again, over 6f, and ideally with a bit of cut in the ground, he’ll be of high interest.

Rae Replay

Highlight Reel
03/05/22 – 8.10 Wetherby:

Swerved right off the gates, settled in final third but didn’t seem to travel overly well early on in a tight field. Got squeezed and hampered from 3f out an, as many did in a finish that had more to do with bumper car racing than horse racing.

Eventually found a way out with less than two furlongs to go, having to take the scenic route around the entire field on the outside. He still encountered trouble all the way to the line. The fact he finished so well in fourth despite all the trouble is noteworthy.

He was out of the weights here which shows how far he’s fallen as a result of poor form this year. However, there are mitigating factors as he’s never done much on the All-Weather and sprint trips are too sharp these days.

He won of a mark of 47 over 10 furlongs last year, running to topspeed 50. I would argue this most recent performance suggests he’s capable to run to a similar level of form. I wouldn’t be interested in him over shorter than a mile. Anything up to 10f, ideally on fast ground and perhaps a good apprentice on board will be intriguing.

Race Replay

Tolstoy
04/05/22 – 3.40 Chester:

He didn’t look entirely straightforward throughout, perhaps not quite enjoying the track, but also showed keenness in the early stages. Travelled well enough in the middle part but was locked on the inside in a disadvantaged position.

Racing room only opened up late in the home straight. Finished well eventually without being beaten up. He was chanceless with the winner but a lot can be attested to his racing position I feel.

He was a busy enough juvenile showing promise over 6 furlongs, although I feel he can improve going up in trip. The way he finished here in soft conditions supports the idea. He’s got to improve, though, if he wants to be competitive in Handicap company of his current mark or perhaps Listed level.

Cut in the ground seems key to him. Goin up in trip – I envision a mile to be ideal – will make him interesting for me, but his tendency to pull is a concern. Not one I’d be keen to back at short prices.

Race Replay

Dangerous Rascal
04/05/2022 – 6.30 Kempton:

https://youtu.be/YbGliQj7K6g?t=271

Bumped heavily right after the start. As a consequence possibly lit up. Never travelled overly well in rear on the inside then, also looked still green, raw and unsure of his job.

Hang around the home turn and hit a flat spot over 2 furlongs out. Once in the clear and asked for full effort the penny dropped and he ran home much the strongest with the fastest last 2 furlong splits without being fully pushed out in the final half furlong.

He’s obviously got a bit of talent but appears to be a tricky customer as well who has still plenty to learn. First-time visor seemed to help in the closing stages. This was his first handicap start and try over 7 furlongs, also second up from a break and gelding operation.

He cost some decent money as a yearling and fetched €115k at a breeze up, likely down to his excellent breeding and being a full-brother to Group 1 placed Rhythm Dancer.

As much as it seems obvious that he is better than a 59 rating, he’s also clearly not a pattern performer. Nonetheless, with experience he should improve significantly. He finished well enough to suggest stamina for 7 furlongs isn’t an issue.