Tag Archives: Lingfield

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #1

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous lists here.

With the flat season under way, it’s time to shift the focus away from the sand finally for good. Hence this is the start of the new series for the2023 flat season.

There can still be a few horses on the list that caught the eye on the sand, given All-Weather racing never sleeps. But the majority will come from turf from now on. Good times!

……..

Maywake
10/04/23 – 4.01 Redcar:

Bit awkward away from the gate. Swiftly moved over to the far side, travelled strongly as part of the group there, still on the bridle 2f out. Had to sit and suffer, before finally out 1f out and ran on really well to finished best.

Lovely return off a break. Down to a mark of 80 now. Won off similar mark last year (also ran career best 84 speed rating). Enjoys cut in the ground and looks ready to run a big race once again in those conditions over 7f.

Race Replay

Stormy Pearl
10/04/23 – 5.46 Redcar:

Swiftly moved over to join the pace full of enthusiasm, a bit too keenly, doing too much. Nonetheless, travelled the best approaching the 2f marker, everyone else off the bridle. Tired rapidly inside the final furlong.

Strong return, especially on soft ground. Raced a lot for a May foal last year and may not have much scope for improvement. But down to realistic 55 mark again, won off similar plus speed rating last year.

Best form on decent ground. Worth to wait for those conditions, given she doesn’t have tons in hand, but is one who could strike on the right day in these early days of the season.

Race Replay

Wen Moon
11/04/23 – 4.00 Pontefract:

Disadvantaged by widest draw, settled in rear. Turned widest for home while going best, smooth progress to hit the front at final furlong marker but hang badly to his left. Won well with plenty in hand I believe.

Impressive how he won on this ground against the pace bias. Almost certainly better on decent ground. Only 3lb up. Lightly raced, gelded during winter. There’s more to come.

Race Replay

Foreseeable Future
12/04/23 – 2.10 Catterick:

Not ideal low draw in soft conditions here, moved quickly toward the centre, that was costly; going okay for a long time before tiering in the final furlong.

Comeback run can be upgraded. Down to good mark. Ran to higher speed ratings last year and won off current mark. Much better on decent to fast ground over the minimum trip and dangerous in those conditions.

Race Replay

Thornaby Beauty
12/04/23 – 5.20 Catterick:

Settled wide in drear from second widest draw. Looked poised over 2f out and tried to make progress through a gap that suddenly got tight and she got bumped several times by rivals. Kept going well to the line.

Superb run in circumstances. Lightly raced. Ran solid speed rating on the sand in line with her current mark, but possibly even more so open to progress on turf.

Should have a chance to stretch out over 7 furlongs on decent ground, but 6f with cut may prove the ideal trip.

Race Replay

Aihawawi
13/04/23 – 5.05 Newcastle:

Went forward and made most after an initial pedestrian first furlong set a strong pace. Under pressure from over 2f out when headed by strongly travelling rival, but kept going gutsily and finished second best in final furlong behind winner from off the pace.

Nice reappearance, first time expected to run well. Still lightly raced and open to progress over 7f, perhaps also on turf on decent ground.

Race Replay

Bella Kopella
13/04/23 – 5.05 Newcastle:

Early up with pace, before tracking the leader who set a solid pace. Stylish progress from over 2f out to head the leader and move ahead. Travelled like the winner but did a lot in the middle part of the race. Tired badly in the final furlong.

Progressive as a juvenile, and won well over this CD upon seasonal return last month. Looks still open to more improvement, ran to 59 speed rating lto and travelled like a “good thing” here.

The way he fell away in the final furlong was a bit concerning but they went hard and he did a lot to push the pace as well.

Race Replay

Indian Creek
17/04/23 – 3.45 Windsor:

Tracked pace early on before putting more pressure on the pace setter. Did too much in the first half of the race in desperate conditions. Most that finished better races more restrained. Tired from 2f out.

Solid comeback. Prefers better ground. Course and distance specialist. Won off 85 and multiple times off in and around 80, including running to 80 speed rating last season.

Dangerous if he drops below 80 now on better going, ideally at Windsor, but also ran well at Goodwood and Newbury.

Race Replay

Cuban Breeze
17/04/23 – 3.45 Windsor:

Set the early pace, showed excellent early speed. Did way too much in desperate conditions and fell away rapidly from over two furlongs out. Still really positive the early speed he showed.

Ran well lto at Kempton clocking a good speed rating. Clearly in solid form. NTO can be ignored in hot company.

Prefers better ground. Ran well last season of mid 80 marks, including 3x 80+ speed ratings. Mark should be revised and becomes really interesting in right conditions. Has speed for minimum trip and stays 6f.

Race Replay

Aurora Dawn
18/04/23 – 2.00 Lingfield:

Bumped a rival as she hot out of the gate. Quickly relegated to the rear of the field. Going okay turning for home, but not quite a clear run in the home straight until gap opens up properly at the final furlong marker. Finished much the best.

Handicap debut, looks like she wants further, and pedigree says a mile could see her improve. Opening mark wasn’t a giveaway and jury is out whether she is ahead even if she steps up to a mile.

But she ran here to 61 speed rating in less than ideal circumstances. With natural improvement there is every chance she can make up the gap and be better than 68.

Race Replay

Swinging Eddie
18/04/23 – 7.30 Southwell:

Overcame his #9 draw quickly to come across and grab the lead. Travelled well enough for a long time, only headed over 1f out and tired late.

Fine seasonal reappearance. Good form. Down to dangerous mark. Ran well off higher last year, including a 62 speed rating. Flexible ground wise on turf over 7f.

Race Replay

Ventura Flame
19/04/23 – 2.50 Beverley:

Tracked the pace early on before taking up the lead over 2f out. Still ahead entering the final furlong before beaten by strong finisher from off the pace half a furlong from home.

Excellent seasonal reappearance. Down to last winning mark from spring 2022, ran twice 74 speed rating plus, including near career-best 77 last year.

Looks in good form. Not a huge margin for error but dangerous if allowed to dominate.

Race Replay

Mustaffiz
20/04/23 – 7.30 Chelmsford:

Went forward really hard to get the lead no matter what. Raced wide as a consequence for most of the race, finally in front as the field turns for home, but tired badly as a consequence of early exertions.

Bumped into a few well-handicapped ones lately. Still ran huge races. Somewhat in the grip of the handicapper but looks capable to win off 59 in race with less pace to compete.

Return to turf would be interesting for possible improvement. Won over 5f on soft in France.

Race Replay

Nogo’s Dream
20/04/23 – 5.15 Newmarket:

Travelled strongly, smooth progress from 3f out, on the bridle, went on to press the lead approaching the final furlong but tired badly.

Perhaps didn’t get home over the stiff 7f. Still lightly raced. Won a maiden over 5f prior. Opportunities off current 67 rating over easier 7f or drop to 6f looks no issue.

Race Replay

Fortamour
20/04/23 – 3.20 Ripon:

Raced in midfield and made excellent progress to grab the lead from over 2f out in his group. Did well to win the near side group from the wide draw#. ( other 6f race on the card also won decisively by far side)

Fine comeback run. Down to excellent 80 mark now. Won off 80 and last year. Ran to 82 speed rating as well. Ripon specialist.

Race Replay

Jax Edge
21/04/23 – 5.20 Bath:

Travelled well when tracking the pace, but stuck in a pocked from 3f out. Looked dangerous if a gap would ever open. No clear run until late when getting tired.

Good comeback run. This should be solid form for this low grade. She won her final race as a juvenile on handicap debut over 6f, which is strong form.

A 61 mark offers opportunities over sprint trips for the filly. She was arguably unlucky not to finish better here but also should come on for the run.

Race Replay

The Defiant
22/04/23 – 4.40 Brighton:

Keen to get on in the early part but restrained to track fast pace a few lengths off. Got rolling from 3f out, big move, pressed leader from 2f out. Established good lead but eventually caught half a furlong out by winner who was ridden more patiently in the middle part.

Excellent comeback. 1lb above last winning mark but ran three times to speed ratings 70+ last year. Clearly ready to go, ideally over 5f. Can run well downhill. Ascot entry next week intriguing.

Race Replay

Huddle Up
22/04/23 – 3.45 Thirsk:

Crossed over soon after the start from his low draw to the stands’ side rail. Tracked good pace, move from over 2f out, in a head-to-head battle with the leader from 2f out all the way to the line. Just beaten in final 50 yards by horse from off the pace.

Strong comeback run after over 300 days off. First proper performance since moving to the UK but also first time on soft ground.

Cut in the ground seems key. Fall to sexy mark. Has speed for minimum trip and stays 6f.

Race Replay

Ramiro
22/04/23 – 4.15 Thirsk:

Off to an okay start, travelled well enough, but repeatedly a clear run denied from 3f out. Tried to get through an opening inside the final furlong just to be squeezed out again.

Would have gone close. Comeback run. Plenty of issues at the start in the past. Hood seemed to help here. Fallen a long way down in the ratings. Seriously dangerous.

Best over 7 furlongs, but 6 furlongs on proper soft off current low mark a possibility. Looks in superb form judged on this run.

Race Replay

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 18th April 2023

2 Comments

2.00 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Trappy contest given the unexposed form of half the field. I do like the exposed form of The Toff, though. He caught the eye the last time, and to a lesser degree also the time before.

At Southwell over a mile he simply didn’t see out the trip after overcoming a wide draw to challenge strongly from three furlongs out.

Last time out at Lingfield, dropped to 7 furlongs, was an interesting race that finished in a sprint finish. Even though he was able to track the pace, he didn’t receive the most economical ride and had to concede first run to the leader. He finished a strong second and the fastest horse in the last three furlongs.

He clearly is in prime form and ready to win. Still a maiden, though, not without promise shown multiple times, he was gelded in October and that may have contributed, in addition to a drop in his handicap mark, to those fine runs lately.

Seven furlongs with a solid pace should be an ideal scenario and is the likely one to be encountered in this race with plenty of pace excpected. This is an easier contest than last month – on paper, if there wouldn’t be all that unexposed form in this field – although, those handicap debutants enjoy only a fair opening mark at best.

He’s an uncomplicated sort, usually up with the pace, and should be able track whoever wants to burn himself out in the early parts. He’s in in strong form and looks primed for a yard that’s going well enough at the moment.

10pts win – The Toff @ 10/3

……….

8.30 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

The price is skinny enough, given his patchy record, but ultimately it feels like this is the day I have been waiting for to back Papa Cocktail.

He was a huge eyecatcher in a similar contest over this course and distance in February when he finished like a train from well off the pace despite not enjoying the clearest of runs. That forms is seriously strong as well.

A stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle where he moved forward to lead until steadily going backwards from about 2 furlongs out probably stretched his stamina, when last seen. It was also a stronger race.

Even though I believe 7 furlongs is possibly his optimum, perhaps a slightly less stiff track and more restraint ride should see him get the trip really well, I also think 6 furlongs with a good pace to aim at will suit him really well, too.

He should find this here. The #7 draw doesn’t worry me too much because he will be ridden off the pace in any case. I hope fore a no-nonsense ride with a challenge unleashed toward the stands’ side, for a clear run.

A mark off 63 gives him a tremendous chance. He caught the eye multiple times last year on turf as well. There is a reason why he’s fallen to such a low rating now, but he clearly showed a spark the last two times to assume he’ll be the one to beat in this contest.

10pts win – Papa Cocktail @ 4/1

Eyecatchers

Eyecatchers #10

2 Comments

A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather and turf. Find all previous lists here.

Apache Star
06/03/23 – 5.30 Wolverhampton:

Quickly overcame his wide draw to move forward and grab the lead. Pushed a fast pace, going hard early on, while pestered on the outside. Still ahead approaching the final furlong and only went down late.

Excellent run off a career-lowest mark. Ran twice to higher speed ratings on the All-Weather. Clearly in shape to win again. Only one win from 19 runs is a poor return, though.

Didn’t always have luck with the draw latest. Has speed for minimum trip as well. Big chance wherever he goes next with a good draw and if he can dominate from the front. (huge nto performance 08/04 in hot race)

Race Replay

Watermelon Sugar
07/03/23 – 4.00 Lingfield:

Held up in last, going strongly as the field turned for home. Good progress against inside rail but momentum stopped, didn’t get a run until switched late to finish seriously well nearly hard held.

Held back in last races. Normally, if on a going day, right up with the pace. Seems to have speed for minimum trip but probably best over 6 furlongs.

Interesting on the All-Weather with money and a good draw; otherwise clearly one to monitor for the first weeks back on turf (subsequent run 28/03 ca be excused due to poor start).

Race Replay

Gatwick Kitten
07/03/23 – 5.10 Lingfield:

Tracked the pace going well on the inside where he came challenging from two furlongs out, before having his momentum stopped by shifting rival who closed the gap.

Comeback run, and first start for new yard. Looks in fine form. Did improve in the past for reappearance. Appears to be fairly handicapped on last seasons form.

Any improvement to come out of the yard change will see him have a cracking chance, especially back on turf over 5-6 furlongs. He loves it over the 5.5f at Brighton in particular (something seemed amiss next time out 28/03, also over 7f; somewhat worrying but will give him the chance).

Race Replay

Broughtons Flare
08/03/23 – 4.30 Lingfield:

Seriously keen the first half of race race, travelling wide, without cover. It was impressive to see him still able to finished the fastest over the last tree furlongs from off the pace.

Remains in strong form. Won three times earlier this year. Not desperately well handicapped on speed ratings off current mark, but a drop to 7 furlongs would be really interesting, if not a mile with a good pace to aim at.

Otherwise one to wait for, to drop a couple of pounds (ignore next time 25/03 over 8.5f, not the right trip).

Race Replay

Lion Ring
08/03/23 – 5.35 Kempton:

Moved quickly forward from wide draw, travelled on the outside, pushing the pace. Outpaced from over two furlongs out but gutsy and finished well to the line in hot race. Ran career-best speed rating

Was 2lb out of the weights. Recently claimed from Ireland. Ran well many times over there, but remains a maiden after 29 starts.

He can win if he drops down to class 6 over 6f I firmly believe as he may find these lower races in the UK easier (15/8 favourite nto, touched rail, short of room, odd run, can be excused).

Race Replay

Concierge
08/03/23 – 5.35 Kempton:

Travelled the back of the field. Made really good progress on the inside, showed multiple accelerations from mid-race right onward to finish the fastest from 4f out.

Excellent comeback run. He’s down to a good mark. Can be slowly away but judged on last years turf campaign, especially the first half, he is now handicapped to win soon, especially as he showed here to be in brilliant form. (nto 25/03 to be ignored; wait for return to turf).

Race Replay

Pillar Of Hope
09/03/23 – 6.15 Newcastle:

Alertly away, disputed the lead, until coming under pressure from 2 furlongs out. Kept going well before fading inside the final furlong.

Comeback run. Won twice on his return before. Probably better on turf and over 10 furlongs. Career-best in September at Redcar, when he ran to 86 speed rating. One to keep an eye out for turf in a few weeks time.

Race Replay

Piranheer
09/03/23 – 1.15 Southwell:

Poor start from #1 draw, soon detached in rear and plenty to do. Motored home from three furlongs out to finish the fastest, doing so rather easily under hands and heels.

Looks one who’s prepared for a specific day. One to monitor in the betting; judged on this form he’s certainly able to win off his current mark if the handbrake is off.

Race Replay

Love Destiny
10/03/23 – 8.30 Kempton:

Up with the good pace early on travelling wide, before settling in 2nd/3rd tracking a few lengths off. Going okay turning for home but came under severe pressure and seemingly going backwards from 2f out. Impressive how he fought back to finish 4th.

Looks to hit form. Drop in grade helped as well. Lost another 3lb on his official rating, and clearly down to dangerous mark. Possibly one ready to strike soon over 7f in similar race.

Race Replay

Kitbag
13/03/23 – 6.30 Wolverhampton:

Right up with the early and hot pace from his wide draw; was the only one who kept going in the final furlong, bar the strongly finishing favourite from off the pace.

Not exactly lightly raced. But chance given by handicapper now, and offers scope to move up in trip given his pedigree. Would be especially interesting over 7f (excellent nto 2nd place effort over 6f again, strong form possibly).

Race Replay

Nordic Glory
17/03/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Travelled in midfield, going okay and possibly poised for challenge turning for home when carrying his head awkwardly. Appeared short of room a number of times too, but kept going well. Finished seriously strongly nto (31/03) when in rear and wide.

Clearly hitting strong form. Will be big runner soon; back over 5 or 6f on turf also interesting. Still winless on grass but ran career best speed rating last summer at Goodwood. Probably best on decent ground.

Race Replay

Motagally
18/03/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Awkward away from widest draw, bumped by rival; settled in rear but seriously keen. Good progress from the back of the field against the inside rial in the home straight.

Normally 7f too far. Hasn’t shown much for nearly two years, although somewhat unlucky in final run last year. The way he finished here suggests he’s close to hitting some proper form.

Intriguing if he can find a 6f race on turf with decent to fast ground.

Race Replay

My Little Tip
24/03/23 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Went quickly forward from the widest draw to dispute early- then chase the pace. Bit flat footed over 2f out but ran on well for 4th without able to match pace of winner.

Ran well this winter at Dundalk. Down to good mark now, especially on turf over 7f. Ideally decent ground but anything good to soft to good to firm that’s not on the extremer side should be fine.

Race Replay

Apprentice
24/03/23 – 7.30 Dundalk:

Up with the pace early on from the widest draw. Travelling widest throughout, not an economical ride. Tried to apply pressure from 3f out but didn’t have pace to match of speedier rivals. Ran well to the line nonetheless.

Lightly raced, only second Handicap start. Half-sister needed 10 furlongs to win. Looks on the small size. One to monitor for the step up in trip into an easier race. Betting will also determine when she tries.

Race Replay

Macho Pride
24/03/23 – 7.15 Newcastle:

Pushed the past as part of duo until he hit the front briefly 2f out, then tired rapidly, although didn’t fully collapse and showed encouraginging signs as he went hard the first couple of furlongs.

Solid performances in recent months with ever threatening. Rewarded with a lovely mark now, ready for a 6f turf sprint on decent ground.

Well-handicapped in those conditions as he confirmed he’s probably still capable to run to the sort of level he showed last season when he ran three times to speed ratings of 57+.

Race Replay

Beau Jardine
25/03/23 – 4.40 Lingfield:

Made most of #1 draw and went forward to lead, set seriously good pace, going well and only swamped for good entering the final furlong, but continued to ran well to the line without being hammered.

Clear return to form after a long drop in the ratings on the back of poor showings ever since the early days of his career. This should be strong form.

Dropped another 2lb and of serious interest next time with any support in the market, most likely at his best over a mile.

Race Replay

Ventura Express
25/03/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Smartly away but soon restrained from his wide draw. In rear going well; steered into traffic approaching the home straight; only clear inside the final furlong finishing seriously well.

Clearly in strong form. Ran career best speed rating a few weeks earlier. Minium trip probably his best. Won last summer off 80 on turf. Not dramatically well handicapped off 79 right now but clearly ripe for a big run once the handbreak is off for good again.

Race Replay

Harry The Haggler
27/03/23 – 2.45 Lingfield:

Moved forward from wide draw and tracked the pace. Bit raw in the early parts of the race (possibly received a kick from horse in front just before the first bend). Turned wide and awkward for home and lost ground. Ran on well.

Good form. Still lightly raced as this was his handicap debut. Came back in January after being off the track and gelded since May. Appears to cry out out for a step up in trip, although I feel 7 furlongs on a less sharp track is also worth a try.

Race Replay

Harry’s Hill
25/03/23 – 2.15 Curragh:

Bit awkward away, but then showed then good ealy speed, disputing the lead. Going well for a long time before falling away in the final furlong.

Was up against it on class here as well as next time at Cork when not disgraced either. Both runs warrant upgrading as ground too soft to see him at his best.

Should find it easier in lesser grade and may get more help from handicapper too. Minimum trip on ground not properly soft remains of interest.

Race Replay

Tammany Hall
25/03/23 – 5.37 Curragh:

Travelled well enough in midfield and solid progress from 3f out, before being carried to his left from 2f out. Short of room in a pocket about 1.5f from home. Effort petered out once in the clear.

Dropped 3lb in the meantime. Infrequent winner but probably well-handicapped judged on strong runs in Handicaps last season. 5-6f with cut in the ground the ideal scenario. Should improve for this return.

Race Replay

The Toff
29/03/23 – 1.35 Lingfield:

Tracked the pace, although first couple of furlongs not the most economical, let the leader and eventual winner kick before going after him. Finished strong second and fastest last three furlongs of all.

Still a maiden, though, not without promise in a number of runs prior. Gelded in October and two good runs subsequently, but he didn’t see out a mile.

Dropped to good mark and clearly able to win over 7f furlongs. Uncomplicated sort usually up with the pace. Interesting if he can find a slightly easier race over 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Ballybaymoonshiner
29/03/23 – 2.10 Lingfield:

Went quickly forward from the widest gate (#13) to grab the lead and set a solid pace. Going well turning for home and still in front approaching the final furlong marker. Only went down inside the last half furlong.

Good performance and rock solid form. Knocked on the door multiple times despite still being a maiden after 15 runs. A mile is too far, 7f right on his limit.

Ran a number of solid speed ratings in the last weeks and months that suggest he’s well capable to win off a 51 mark. Chelmsford entry over 7f on Thursday of real interest if he’s got a good draw.

Race Replay

Nefarious:
29/03/23 – 2.45 Lingfield:

Slowly away, in rear, outpaced from over 3 furlongs out, seemingly back on the bridle entering the home straight with delayed effort from jockey who made sure the horse got the most uneconomical ride possible.

6f is on the sharp side. Wasn’t in it to win it and hasn’t been the last few times. Dropped to sexy mark and of serious interest over 7f again.

Race Replay

Phoenix Star
29/03/23 – 8.30 Kempton:

Held up well off the pace, had loads to d still over two furlongs out then picked his way through the field and fished incredibly strongly.

Dropped another 2lb for this effort. Clearly in strong form, ran well this winter on the AW as well. On a good mark for sand and turf. Ran to better speed ratings multiple time in the last half year. Effective over 5-6f.

Race Replay

Ghost Lights
31/03/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Wide draw no help, forced to settle in rear. Going okay before turned wide for challenge, finished strongly against front-runner pace bias in slowly run race. Probably decent form.

Lightly raced, handicap debut. Showed promise in three starts prior. Pedigree points to possible improvement for step up to 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Mucky Mulconry
31/03/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Path forward blocked after the start, forced to settle off the pace. Asked for effort from over 2 furlongs out. Huge finish against the inside rail in slowly run race.

Second run for new yard since moving over from Ireland. Still lightly raced enough and this effort when money was down suggests he’s capable to win off a mark around 50.

Race Replay

Dark Design
31/03/23 – 2.25 Lingfield:

Moved quickly forward from his wide draw to track eventual and very strong winner racing in second place. Didn’t have the pace to match and tired in the final furlong.

Still solid ran, as mostly he ran well in recent weeks and months. Dropped 2lb and interesting anywhere from 6-8f on AW or turf. Won off 55 and 57 last season, ran to 56 speed rating in January.

Race Replay

Sir Benedict
31/03/23 – 6.20 Newcastle:

Awkward start, in rear, behind a wall of horses from 2f out; good progress from 1f out, before stopped again with half a furlong to go.

Tricky sort who finds trouble regularly. Clearly down to good mark and in super form. With a clear run very much ready to strike next time.

Race Replay

Global Tycoon
31/03/23 – 3.15 Southwell:

Moved forward to grab the lead, not uncontested for the most part, though. Keen in the first half of the race. Going okay turning for home, only relinquished lead around the final furlong then tired rapidly.

Return off 274 days off. Not sure he stays a mile, either. Won well at Kempton over 7f last autumn. Still lightly raced. Interesting down to 7f again off his reassessed 56 mark.

Race Replay

Cruise
01/04/23 – 4.25 Kempton:

Raced in last, bit raw and fresh, niggled; attempted to make challenge from 2f out when going best toward the inside, path blocked and short of room until jockey takes big pull at the final furlong marker to get space on the outside. Finished easily the best under hands and heels.

Fair to assume she would have won with a clear run, perhaps even if she would have been ridden more vigorously in the final furlong in any case. Depth of form questionable, though.

Changed yards during winter for £27,000. First start since August. Should improve. Opening mark possibly lenient on this evidence. May be to short a price next time (entry 11/04).

Race Replay

Greatgadian
01/04/23 – 3.35 Doncaster:

The wide draw was far from an advantage, he travelled in rear and had to come around the widest outside on the far side to make a challenge from over two furlongs out. Flat footed from 1f out but kept going well to the line.

In solid form all winter. Definitely prefers better ground than the deep going in the Lincoln. Stays 10 furlongs and now down to a mark of 98 interesting on better ground.

Race Replay

Glory Fighter
02/04/23 – 5.40 Doncaster:

Went forward, but not before the jockey lost his irons early; quickly recovered, led but closely followed. Under pressure from 2f out and gradually weakened, though, ran well to the line for 3rd place.

Good reappearance. Down to fair mark. Caught the eye a few times last year without winning. Pretty ground independent, bar proper fast ground. Although, best performances came on good to soft to genuine good ground, over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Toussarok
03/04/23 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Led, setting a steady pace, travelling full of enthusiasm. Challenged from two furlongs and no chance with the winner, but impressive how he kept answering the calls, stuck his neck out and found for pressure.

Clearly in good nick. On good mark. Won off 79 last year on turf. Ideally drops down to 6f on decent ground. Otherwise happy to wait, as if he drops a few pounds he’ll be seriously well handicapped.

Race Replay

Cavalier Approach
04/04/23 – 8.00 Southwell:

Bit awkward away from the gate. Travelled well against inside rail before short of room over 2 furlongs out, lost ground and momentum but jockey also didn’t seem particularly bothered. Finished nicely under light hands and heels.

Clearly never been in it to win it and never has been in five career runs. Worth to monitor the market the next few times. Seems to be in good shape.

Comes down to solid mark now, ran 55 speed rating last autumn which looks legit given the depth of that form. Minimum trip should be fine for now. May have some scope to move up in trip, too.

Race Replay

Revoquable
04/04/23 – 3.45 Thirsk:

Wide draw forced him to settle well off the pace. Trailed as the field turned for home, delayed challenge before getting into the clear about two furlongs from home. Ran on well but couldn’t get back to winner. Finished best of all.

Down to good mark now, after largely uneventful All-Weather season since a strong 1m win at Southwell in October.

Ran to 59 speed rating that day, hence fair to assume off 54 (if left untouched by handicapper) he’s got to be an interesting runner on possibly better ground over 7-8f.

Race Replay

Makalu
04/04/023 – 4.15 Thirsk:

Unusual good start but wide draw forced him to settle in rear. Trailed when turning for home but made excellent progress from 3f out before not quite the clearest of runs from two furlongs from home. Finished best.

Excellent reappearance and return to form after a bunch of poor performances last season. Clearly capable off 55, having ran to better speed ratings in the past.

One who wasn’t the sharpest out of the gate and needs a bit of luck due to his racing style. Ideally better ground, 6-7 furlongs fine.

Race Replay

Captain Corcoran
04/04/23 – 5.45 Thirsk:

Awkward start, held up in rear, travelled well, good progress from three furlongs out but not clear run entering the final furlong. Finished nicely nonetheless under pretty easy ride.

Clearly ridden with intend not to show all of his cards here. Usually up with the pace. Nice reappearance after light All-Weather campaign in any case. On a good turf mark and ready to rock any time soon.

Race Replay

Coast
05/04/23 – 2.25 Wolverhampton:

Moved quickly forward and set fast pace. Had the field on the stretch and still ahead approaching final furlong before fading badly.

Doesn’t stay 7f. Strong run, backed up recent massive runner-up performance. Down to six furlongs will become interesting. Although has a couple of 7f entries. Hopefully she can get find a way to drop below 54 to become seriously intriguing.

Race Replay

Totnes
05/04/23 – 3.00 Wolverhampton:

Travelled very strongly in rear of the field, good progress from 3f out. going much the best. Challenge petered out from over 1f out as she hang badly to the left.

Can be excused. Perhaps something wasn’t right. She was ultra-impressive weeks earlier over the same C&D, winning in the manner of a talented filly on only her second career run.

She should be better than than the 71 opening mark. Pedigree points to stamina for more improvement to come beyond 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Albert Cee
05/04/23 – 4.30 Kempton:

Off to a quick start, right up with the hot pace, travelled strongly and kicked on over 2f out. Beaten by better horse on the day but impressive as he fought back gamely late.

Could improve for this outing, first one for a new yard and as a 3-year-old. Uncomplicated sort, and if not too harshly reassessed by the handicapper, of real interest in similar race with a little bit less pace to compete.

Race Replay

Intervention
06/04/23 – 6.30 Southwell:

Hard to control as overly keen early on, led go after first two furlongs. Established comfortable lead but did way too much and faded badly in the home straight. 1m is too far, in any case.

Highly frustrating sort due to incredible consistently. Ran numerous times really well over the winter (inlcuding lto catching the eye). But in the grip of the handicapper. Ran two career best speed ratings this winter as well.

Perhaps it was a final bow by connections that he need help from the handicapper to allow him to run a race without intent to do well. One to monitor, if he can find a way to fall to 75 he’d be intriguing over 6f on the AW. Would like to see more assistance before being interested on turf.

Race Replay

Creme De Cacao
06/04/23 – 7.30 Southwell:

Keenly moved forward and led, set good pace, although closely followed and put under pressure around the bend. Kicked on while travelling on the bridle approaching the home straight. Tired from 2f out but nice attitude as she fought back gamely all the way to the line.

If she can settle a bit better, which isn’t impossible, given this was the handicap debut for this lightly raced filly (April foal), she offers upside off her opening mark. Not impossible that she can drop to 6 furlongs also.

Race Replay

Compare
06/04/23 – 2.10 Chelmsford:

Awkward start, heavily bumped a rival, led early on before settling in third. Kicked on nicely against inside rail approaching the home straight; hit the front 1f out, strong run to the line but no chance with winner from off the pace eventually.

Possibly strong form. Winner won back-to-back with this; third won last time out. Others looked solid in this field. He was a 50/1 shot, clearly outran his price.

Still lightly raced enough. Offers upside over a mile ran at a decent pace. May stretch out to 10 furlongs; either way deserves another chance.

Race Replay

Mr Escobar
07/04/23 – 2.05 Lingfield:

Travelled very smoothly tracking the pace. Confident ride, jockey took multiple pulls as they turned the home bend, seemingly going much the best. Didn’t get the gap in the home straight and minded in the closing stages.

Short-priced favourite, Ryan Moore spoke in glowing words beforehand; an obvious one, perhaps too short next time. Lightly raced, improved nicely at Dundalk in maiden company. Clearly ahead of his mark over these sort of trips.

Race Replay

Captain Dandy
07/04/23 – 1.40 Bath:

Had no chance from the widest draw but did exceptionally well against the bias finishing best of those drawn in the high numbers.

Confirmed huge impression from lto win at Wolverhampton when he finished seriously well after missing the break and giving the field a headstart.

Tricky sort who can miss the break, did much better here at Bath and perhaps the penny has dropped, somewhat. One to keep an eye on for headgear and/or for being gelded.

Race Replay

Madam Fenella
07/04/23 – 2.15 Bath:

Awkward start, wore hood to post; she’s tricky as the past tells. Travelled well and did seriously well to finish as close as she did from her wide draw.

Had limited opportunities on turf in handicap company. Ascot run from last September noteworthy. Probably not much scope in terms of moving up in trip beyond 6 furlongs.

Intriguing once she drops down to class 6 on turf. She seems to handle soft ground but has shown to stay 6 furlongs as well, possibly interesting on better ground.

Race Replay

Gioia Cieca
08/04/23 – 2.25 Musselburgh:

Not quite the sharpest of starts early on; soon tracked the pace and was going okay with bit of progress on inside before heavily under pressure from 2f out. Stuck with it and ran well to the line, no match for winner, though.

Good to see him finish well after break and first time since a wind OP. Can be upgraded as softish ground far from ideal. Hasn’t ran overly impressive speed ratings yet but deserves a chance over 7f on decent to fast ground.

Possibly well-handicapped in those conditions judged on last season. Not one to give to many chances but worth to wait for his conditions, in any case.

Race Replay

Rock Melody
08/04/23 – 4.45 Musselburgh:

In rear racing against the inside rail with plenty to do over 1f out. Rapid progress but squeezed and short of room in the closing stages; finished really well.

Lovely return from a break and for a new yard. Trip on the sharp side. Better over 6 and 7 furlongs. On a workable mark, has ran to similar speed ratings already.

Race Replay

Mustaffiz
08/04/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Missed break, keen afterwards. Uneventful run. Caught the eye a number of times when he ran well in last weeks and entered on Eyecatchers #7.

Really liked his lto Kempton run as well. However, after he tried a number of times now it’s clear now he’s in the grip of the handicapper and needs some help, hence no surprise to see him having missed the break here.

Monitor as he falls below 60 (ideally 58 and lower) for return to front-running tactics over stiff 5f or 6f.

Race Replay

Three Beauz
09/04/23 – 2.05 Southwell:

Bit awkward away, bumped by rival, possibly lit up as a consequence. Travelled keenly, approached 2f powerfully, though. Behind wall of horses, had to switch very wide, made good ground all the time. Couldn’t quite sustain effort.

Off a break, still lightly raced and offers plenty of upside. Looks capable to win off current mark if he can progress from this run. Number of good performances as a juvenile, also on turf. Decent ground and minimum trip would be intriguing.

Race Replay

Betting

Friday Selections: 7th April 2023

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First winner for the month on Wednesday: Bang On The Bell (9/2; 4/1 SP) won his race at Wolverhampton. Although, not quite in the manner I had anticipated as he blew the start and had do it the hard way. Thankfully, he held on and showed grit in the final furlong.

Dog Fox was withdrawn, unfortunately; after misbehaving in the stalls; there’ll be another day.

Sharon Macready refused to settle as they tried to drop her in. I could have seen that coming. She’s done it before. Like…. always. Even over the minimum trip. Backing her over 6 furlongs was simply a poor decision.

……….

3.15 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

The “All-Weather Vase Sprint Handicap” looks one of those uncompetitive-competitive handicaps. Plenty of runners, more or less similar ability, plenty of chances without any real standout and very few well-handicapped ones, if any.

Hence I’m prepared to give Emperor Spirit a solid shout at this, who seems overpriced in this field, for a myriad of reasons.

For one, it’s only two runs back that he seriously caught the eye at Newcastle:

He grabbed the lead promptly, set a red hot pace, but was pestered by a rival throughout, yet travelled strongly, before drifting across the track as he got really tired in the closing stages and was eventually overpowered by two horses from off the pace to finish third.

That was a strong performance and rock solid form, and his subsequent and most recent run doesn’t distract from it in my view – he was well beaten when last seen but that was a hot 5 furlong sprint on his debut for a new yard. No doubt the minimum trip is too sharp.

He ran pretty well all winter, though; especially over this course and distance in early December off 5lb higher than he’s currently rated, going off the 15/8 favourite, only beaten late in the day – doing so with cheek pieces fitted, which are on here again after an absence recently.

Subsequent form did suggest he ran not far below that level of form; although he’s a horse who finds it tough to get his head in front, hence he has fallen ever so slightly down to a 85 mark now.

He ran to higher speed ratings in the past, so there is an argument to be made that he’s weighted to win.

The race may develop to his advantage: he could establish an easy lead and good early rhythm and subsequently tough to peg back for a third career victory. He’s got the benefit of the #1 draw and there’s not too much pace pressure especially as other prominent horses are wider drawn.

10pts win – Emperor Spirit @ 11/1

…….

3.25 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 3.5f

On the basis of ground, trip and handicap mark one can rule out more than half the field. Gastronomy seems the default favourite given his unexposed profile for strong connections, but is clearly poor value given the short price with questions to answers on ground and trip.

Nonetheless, the one I have an eye on is the 5-yeaer-old mare Reach, who could be quite well handicapped here.

She’s one I flagged in the Handicappers To Follow piece, although I didn’t expect to find such an ideal opportunity so soon after publishing the list.

Reach is very lightly raced for her age. She created a strong impression on her first two starts before winning in emphatic fashion at Pontefract in autumn, when upped to 12 furlongs.

She travelled strongly on Handicap debut subsequently, but faded badly over the shorter 10 furlongs; perhaps she paid for having three runs in rather quick succession.

The mare looks all stamina and should have more to offer off 74 going up in trip again, especially with cut in the ground.

I’ve got little doubts about her race fitness. I expect her to be ready to go. Connections couldn’t have hoped for a better race to kick-off the season.

10pts win – Reach @ 15/2

Betting

Monday Selections: 3rd April 2023

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It wasn’t the start I hoped for the new flat season: King’s Lynn badly squeezed early on, his race was basically done there and then. Didn’t get the clearest of runs until the race was over either… one to mark up and keep in the tracker.

Anyway, the flat kicks into gear properly this week. It’s going to be a few busy weeks and months ahead… But before that I’ve done the usual house keeping, and updated the P&L sheet for March here, including SPs now.

Always a bit easier to do this work if the month turned out to be a green one… can do with a few more of them, of course.

I’m heading to the sand for Monday’s selection, though. A familiar name is back there over her ideal course and distance….

……..

5.15 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Sir Rodneyredblood remains a strong chance even under a penalty, having shown tremendous form lately. I backed him myself when he won over the minimum trip at Chelmsford last month.

Nonetheless, he’s now rated very much in range of what requires best effort for him to overcome these days, in a hot race, with a wider than ideal draw and pace pressure likely to be applied.

Bobby On The beat and Porfin have fair shouts on their winter form, but Come On Girl is the one I’m most interested in, given it was back in January that she caught the eye in no uncertain terms.

That day she wasn’t advantaged by the way the race developed, yet she finished much the fastest in the home straight despite turning wider than ideal.

She followed up with another massive run, then over 7 furlongs, when only caught in the final half furlong, after doing too much too soon.

Subsequently out of her depth in class 4 when last seen, she’s now back in her ideal grade, class 6; 0-65, over 6 furlongs.

Pace looks guaranteed, her #4 draw gives Oisin Murphy in the saddle plenty of options; his booking seems a clear indicator that connections expect her to run well.

She was in fine form all winter, ran to 59 and 60 speed ratings during this All-Weather season and looks ripe for a 5th course and distance victory.

10pts win – Come On Girl @ 5/1

Betting

All-Weather Wednesday Selections: 8th March 2023

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4.00 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Hill Station looks potentially quite well-handicapped back over 12 furlongs on the Lingfield polytrack. He’s the only one with any notable recent course & distance form in this field. Judged on his last All-Weather runs he may have found finally an ideal opportunity to get off the mark.

I willingly ignore the most recent outing over hurdles, even though he was fancied at this track four weeks ago. It was a strange race. He’s certainly better judged on the last sand performances, in my view.

With that in mind, when last seen here at Lingfield’s polytrack over 10 furlongs in early February he ran with plenty of credit as a 22/1 longshot. He tracked a solid pace a couple of lengths clear of the chasing pack, and made nice progress turning for home, before getting tired and fading back to 6th.

That run was in line with the promise he showed toward the end of 2022 at Chelmsford and over 12 furlongs at Lingfield, even more so, back in November.

At Chelmsford over 10 furlongs Hill Station got caught in the closing stages after running hard from the front. But especially the run prior over course and distance at Lingfield appeared to be a significant performance.

That day he was early up with the pace, however, got caught wide for the majority of the race. He still rallied strongly in the closing stages, to finish a brilliant 3rd and ran to a strong 63 speed rating.

That’s clearly the best more recent performance on offer in this poor field today. He’s been dropped another 2lb in the meantime, therefore and any repeat of that run will see him win this, most likely.

There won’t be too much pace pressure here. So he may enjoy it easy on the front as well and no danger of getting caught wise this time.

His sire has a poor record on the All-Weather, which is a concern. On the other hand, this is possibly a fact to negate, given Hill Station has proven he performs on the All-Weather.

10pts win – Hill Station @ 7/2

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #9

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather. Find all previous lists here.

Primo’s Comet
20/02/23 – 6.00 Newcastle:

Restrained in rear, possibly slightly impeded around 4f out as pace wasn’t rapid and it got tight amongst those held up. Switched toward inside rail but didn’t get a run until late. Seriously light ride.

Rapidly falls in his rating. Still managed to run to 61 and 63 speed rating in October and November. Should be ready for big run soon over minimum trip.

Race Replay

Streetscape
20/02/23 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Moved forward to track the early pace. Challenged leaders from over 2 furlongs out to hit the front soon after. Gutsy run right to the line but beaten by winner and second from rear of the field.

Handicap debut, off a break; should be able to improve. Remains of interest over 1m but looks to have even options over 10 furlongs on pedigree.

Race Replay

Samba Lady
21/02/23 – 6.30 Southwell:

Seriously keen in the first half of the race on first try over 7f. Made excellent progress and was fastest through 4 to final furlong. Pushed eventual winner who made all hard to the line.

Looks increasingly exposed but off this lowered 63 mark should be really competitive, if the handicapper leaves her untouched, in similar 0-65 Handicap once more down to 6f.

Around a turn with a good draw and not too much pace to compete is the obvious ideal scenario over the shorter trip.

Race Replay

Beneficiary
23/02/23 – 7.00 Newcastle:

Moved forward, pushed solid pace as part of a duo, took up the lead 2f out, still ahead approaching final furlong but then tired rapidly.

Second run for new yard. Ran to 63 speed rating in the past. Good form this here, looks to be hitting peak soon. Drop in grade or any help from handicapper will be intriguing, as would be 6f around a bend of 5f at Newcastle once again.

Race Replay

Regal Glory
24/02/23 – 1.20 Lingfield:

Overcame widest draw easily to lead early one, before settling second closely following the leader. Attacked from 3f out before slowing over 2f out, before badly hampered. In the clear over half a furlong from home and got going again.

Mile is probably too far. Won nicely over 7f two runs back, and also ran to 57 speed rating prior. Ideally drops down in trip again. any help from the handicapper will be a bonus.

Race Replay

Man Made Of Smoke
24/02/23 – 1.20 Lingfield:

Moved forward, led keenly, set even gallop, led until turning for home. Paid for keenness in the final part of the race.

It seems he doesn’t really get trip. It was not a hot pace, but he struggled to settle well at this slower gallop. He remains amaiden, but run often well in the past as evidence of his mark that didn’t move much.

He’s usually up with pace, so should enjoy a drop to 7f when he can go a bit faster. He didn’t have too many chances over this trip on AW.

Race Replay

Game Nation
24/02/23 – 2.50 Lingfield:

Chased the hot pace, going pretty well as he started his challenge over 2f out. Led 1.5f from home but tired badly in the closing stages.

Still a maiden but remains unexposed and has dropped rapidly in the mark to something more realistic. Will almost certainly enjoy a step up in trip.

Race Replay

Sir Rodneyredblood
25/02/23 – 6.40 Chelmsford:

Excellent early speed, helped by low draw. Led, strong pace. Tried hard but eventually fading from 1f out.

Back from a small break. Ran well a number of times in autumn. Best at Chelmsford and Lingfield over 5 to 6 furlongs.

Ideally drops down to 0-60, but will keep open mind in right race, depending on track, draw and pace map.

Race Replay

Bang On The Bell
17/02/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton

Quick start from the widest draw to get to the leaders as the field entered the turn. Pushed strong pace as part of trip, before getting quite tired in the home straight.

Much better thank comeback run, although that was over 6 furlongs. Increasingly drops to a dangerous mark again. Ideally want to see him below 70 over the minimum trip. He could be really-well handicapped then in the right race.

Race Replay

Candy Warhol
28/02/23 – 7.00 Southwell:

Restrained from widest draw, travelled in rear. Makes progress from over 3f out as pace increased to be in a challenging position at the top of the home straight. Kept in a pocket there and didn’t get a clear run until late. Unlucky.

Handicap debut. Looks on a fair opening mark judged on this effort. Any natural improvement would see this lightly raced 4yo well capable of winning a similar race.

Race Replay

Fanzone
28/02/23 – 7.30 Southwell:

Not quite the sharpest out of wider than ideal draw, bit keen, settled in midfield. Travelled well for a long time and fond plenty once pulled out and asked for full effort.

Excellent comeback run after 188 days off. Caught eye a number of times last year on the flat. Not one to trust too much but should be on a pretty good mark now if he could hold his form.

Race Replay

Eastern Star
01/03/23 – 5.30 Kempton:

Grabbed lead and set seriously hot pace early on. Had the field on the stretch, still going well turning for home. Severely under pressure from 2 furlongs out. Impressive how he pulled out more and fought back gamely.

Must be in serious form. Better over 7 furlongs. Was due to drop 2lb but unlikely that’s going to happen now. Should be really intriguing as he has a 7f entry next Friday as he was off 54 only a shoulder beaten in a similar contest exactly 12 months ago.

Race Replay

Secretary
02/03/23 – 1.25 Newcastle:

Restrained in rear early on but quite keen, gradually pulled his way forward. Came with good looking challenge but faded badly in the final furlong.

Probably doesn’t stay the trip. Family is sprint heavy dam won over 7 furlongs, though. Eye catching win when last seen in 2022 at Chelmsford overcoming widest draw. Looks potentially on a lenient mark if dropping down to 7f again.

Race Replay

Spartan Fighter
03/03/23 – 7.15 Newcastle:

Chased pace early on, before applying pressure on the leaders from three furlongs out to lead as he kicked on; still ahead approaching the final furlong before getting tired.

Outran his odds in the last runs. Looks in form. Won of higher marks last March at Newcastle. also running to 71, 74 and 77 speed ratings. Worth monitoring for some support in the market. Can’t be long before he’s ready to strike.

Race Replay

Punk Poet
03/03/23 – 8.00 Dundalk:

Excellent start from wide draw, up with the pace early on, before he settled in the chasing pack. Travelled really strongly into the home straight but faded rapidly.

Reappearance off 26 days off the track. Most likely needed the run, given the way he dropped out quickly. Down to good mark already but may get additional help now from the handicapper.

Won off 82 and 82 last year, also ran to 82 speed rating. Versatile as he stays a mile and is pacey enough for 7 furlongs. Usually likes to be up with the pace.

Race Replay

Pulse Of Shanghai
03/03/23 – 8.o0 Dundalk

Pushed forward from very wide draw, eventually got to the lead entering the bend. Had to do a lot to get there. Kicked on nicely approaching the home straight, still leading 1.5f out, before rapidly falling away.

Good run. Outperformed big odds more often than not lately, but never threatening. Comes to intriguing mark. Anything closer to 60 now over 6 or 7f at Dundalk with good, draw will be interesting. 7f is a stretch, though. Depends on the other pace in the race. Also turf off 58 intriguing.

Race Replay

Little Keilee
03/03/23 – 9.00 Dundalk

Bit keen early on and was forced to settle in rear on the inside as the way forward was closed from her wide draw. Travelled well entering the home straight and went for a run toward the stands’ side. Badly hampered and repeatedly clear run denied.

Appeared to be going well enough to suggest she could have gone close with a clear run, although was a bad drifter in the betting on the day. Lightly raced, only second handicap start; was in season lto, that run can be discounted.

Race Replay

Betting

Saturday Selections: 25th February 2023

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It’s not really happening for me right now. Even though – and that’s all I can ask for – it was a massive run by Royal Tribute last night at Dundalk. But was only good enough for a 4th place finish in the end.

It was odd to see him held up in last after an excellent start. He made a huge move from 3 furlongs out to lead at the final furlong marker, but he mad that move right into the hottest part of the race, so no surprise to see him fade late.

I’ll try to maintain positivity. Especially in light of a superb day of racing today. Kenilworth, South Africa is the place to be. 2.15 is the time to remember: Cape Derby time – Charles Dickens goes off the hot favourite and let’s just hope he can show something spectacular.

………

1.40 Kenilworth: Listed Jet Master Stakes, 8f

A wide open contest, that sees top rated Al Muthana return to his preferred distance. he was the shock winner of the King’s Plate, but couldn’t follow up in the Met over 10 furlongs, which wasn’t a surprise to see.

Obviously, if he would run to the level of form shown over this course and distance in January, when beating Charles Dickens, he’s the one to beat.

Two issues he may encounter, though: he’s got overcome 62kg on his back. And the low draw, albeit generally a positive, may mean he has to challenge against the inside rail, if he doesn’t want to lose a lot of ground to angle out toward the preferred stands’ side. The market sees it the same, and has a fair 6/1 chance.

Favourite Silvano Dasher won two hot handicaps on the bounce. He’s got to prove his stamina over this trip, though. From his wide draw he’ll be ridden for a turn of foot I assume. Makes little appeal at current odds.

Lightweight Imilenzeyokududuma looks attractive. He is progressive, loves this course and distance and should enjoy the perfect race tracking the pace from his #4 draw.

At the prices I simply have to back classy Warrior, though. He ran really lately, in hot races, often having to overcome wide draws. His stamina was stretched in the Met when last seen, but his run was huge against the very best opposition.

He also was a fast finishing 3rd in the Grade 2 Anthonij Rupert Wyne Premier Trophy prior, when he had to overcome a wide #13 draw, then over 9 furlongs.

The drop to 1.600m looks absolute key today. His record is 7-4-2 over this course and distance and he’s got the added bonus of Richard Fourie in the saddle.

The #7 is possibly ideal. Fourie will have every option to chose his race tactics, but I assume he’ll settle somewhere 4-5 lengths off the pace, with the aim to angle out wide for an early challenge from 500 metres out against the stands’ side.

Warrior is a class act in this field and certainly over his preferred trip. He didn’t have many opportunities to run over this C&D since winning the Cape Mile back in November 2021.

10pts win – Warrior @ 6/1

………

2.40 Lingfield: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

I was seriously impressed with Diderot’s comeback run last month. 203 days off, he returned at Southwell in a competitive class 3 Handicap. No surprise on his first run in such a long time to see some signs of keenness early on, before he happily took the lead of the front-runners.

As he tracked the pace he travelled sweetly throughout, hard on the bridle as he approached two furlongs from home and hit the front. Ultimately the winner came flying from off the pace to catch Diderot inside the final furlong.

It was still impressive to see him being able to keep up strongly all the way to the line, which only horse in near peak form could do.

He ran to a strong 88 speed rating on the day, not too far off his best. Today is a hotter race on paper, but judged on performances over the last twelve months his best is best in this field, in fact.

About a year ago he was only a neck beaten over this course and distance off a 94 mark, running to a 94 speed rating. He followed up with more excellent performances on the All-Weather.

He’s not obviously well-handicapped off 95 today. But he’s very likely to be top form, likely to run to his best, and that could be good in a race where there are question marks to answer for many of his rivals.

The pace will be intriguing. There should be a quite a bit of early speed that will likely suit Diderot to slot in behind the leaders, drop his head then and come with a strong finish in the final furlong to hopefully win the race.

10pts win – Diderot @ 7/2

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #8

2 Comments

A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather. Find all previous lists here.

Counsel
07/02/23 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Seriously keen from wide draw, jockey tried to restrain him, before rushing forward on the widest outside to grab lead entering the home turn, having done way too much up to that point. Fell away in the final two furlongs.

Some interesting tactics have been deployed on this horse lately. Caught the eye last time as well. He’s possibly a few pounds too high in the mark. Strong run last month when runner-up at Chelmsford off 76.

Drop to 7f could be interesting, although no doubt he stays a mile. Needs a bit more help from the handicapper and one to watch out for when the market signals are positive.

Race Replay

First Company
08/02/23 – 6.30 Kempton:

Crossed quickly over from #11 draw to the inside, seriously keen, especially tough to control up on entering the bend. Travelled strongly into home straight, not quite the clearest of runs but impressive change of gear as he weaves through the field from 1.5f out, before getting tiered.

Probably doesn’t stay the trip, but also finds it tough to get home over 7f due to racing too freely. Sole win over minimum trip. Still unexposed on the All-Weather over shorter sprint trips.

Yet to be expected to run well on the sand. Comes down to intriguing mark. Drop in trip and good draw could do wonders. Ran six times to 70+ speed ratings on turf over 5 furlongs.

Race Replay

Outrace
08/02/23 – 7.00 Kempton:

Moved forward to lead, was about three lengths ahead soon, reduced lead entering the home straight and headed 2f out, kept answering the challenge and rallied strongly. Eventually tiered, finished third with winner from well off the pace and on back to back wins.

Showed great attitude and continues his excellent recent form. Would be really interesting down in trip over 7f. Even though he won over a mile, he probably doesn’t see out a strongly run race, but has the pedigree and pace to dominate over the short trip.

Race Replay

Far From A Ruby
09/02/23 – 5.10 Newcastle:

Moved quickly forward from #1 draw, early on isolated on her side; pushing a hot pace. Rapidly faded away from 2 furlongs out.

First run in 135 days, dropped away like one who was badly in need of the run. Lovely pipe opener, though. Trip too short and she was able to go the pace early on.

Will be interesting once up in trip again, 7-8f. Showed in Autumn to be still capable of performances that could see her well-handicapped off her current mark, running to a 58 speed rating at Ayr, a career-best on turf. She is better on the sand.

Race Replay

Whiteandblue
09/02/23 – 5.10 Newcastle:

Moved forward quickly and set red hot pace – they were faster over the first half than the C4 5f Handicap on the same card. Continued to lead until deep inside the final furlong. Huge run. Career-best speed rating.

Still a maiden, but has the penny dropped? Off same mark really interesting for drop to 5f once more, or 6f around a turn. Ran to 58 in the past and now 59 speed rating.

Race Replay

Papa Cocktail
10/02/23 – 5.35 Southwell:

Awkward away, travelled in rear, loads to do turning for home, seemingly going well; no clear run; finished seriously strongly in the final furlong.

Caught the eye a number of times on turf last year. Tricky horse, seems to have developed issues at the start. However, not expected since August, so somewhat mitigating factors for seemingly poor form.

Up in trip over 7f, if any support in the market he’s going to be serious runner, if he can get well away from the gate. The could have quite a bit in hand before the handicapper one the handbrake is off for good.

Race Replay

Leabaland
10/02/23 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Travelled really strongly into the home straight. Squeezed upon entering the straight, and multiple times a clear run denied subsequently. No chance to unleash a challenge.

One who seems to find trouble. Not always the clearest of passage the last two runs either. Caught the eye back in October too. Didn’t have a lot of luck with a low draw ever since.

Remains of interest over a mile, ideally with a good draw. He looks in fine form, ready to strike.

Race Replay

Race Replay

Insomina
10/02/23 – 7.30 Dundalk:

Moved quickly forward to grab the lead and set solid fractions from the front. Still ahead by a couple of lengths entering the home straight before fading rapidly.

Changed hands for £3k in December. Three poor runs since, although this one looked more positive given the enthusiasm he travelled with.

Ran to 73 speed rating last summer on the AW. Market will dictate when on a going day. Ideally gets more help from the handicapper before I am getting involved. 7f with a good draw possibly the ideal scenario.

Race Replay

Gobi Sunset
11/02/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Bumped right after the start, pushed forward to lead, setting a healthy gallop. Still ahead entering the final furlong before swamped. Followed up with solid effort at Newcastle.

Off a long break. Usually does well fresh, but was a drifter on the day and perhaps not quite as ready as in previous years. Not too well-handicapped right now but good chance in a similar race over 6 or 7 furlongs with any from the handicapper.

Race Replay

Ri Na Farraige
13/02/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

A bit keen early on, then travelled really strongly. going well and making progress from 3f out, challenge on the wide outside, a bit hanging over 1f out, couldn’t catch winner. Strong form and race

Only second handicap run, achieved 64 speed rating, in line with current mark. Any improvement for second run off break will see him ripe to win.

10f entry next week interesting. Stamina isn’t assured, and he must settle; but worth a go as he kept running well to the line here.

Race Replay

Turbo Tiger
14/02/23 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Moved quickly and keenly forward, probably wasting quite a bit of energy. Swamped over 1f out, bit flat footed, before coming back for more late, which was impressive.

Freshly gelded. Comes to more realistic official rating after a harsh opening mark. Will be interesting for drop to class 6 and possibly a 55 mark as then much more realistic to see him being competitive.

Full-brother to a decent sprinter who does his best over 6f, hence goin up in trip possible as well.

Race Replay

Bridge Water
15/02/23 – 5.00 Kempton:

Widest draw, restrained and trailing the field, nicely settled. Travelled strongly and made strong progress from 3f out. Finished much the best. Just been poorly positioned.

Unlikely to be strong form. But her run prior warranted an upgrade too. Probably needs a step up to 7f. Can improve then off a low mark.

Race Replay

Rogue Force
15/02/23 – 7.30 Kempton:

Good start, up wit the pace early, bit keen, before then settled in a position tracking the pace. Travelled the best to the 2 furlong marker but didn’t find much off the bridle.

Didn’t see out his races too well the last two times. Looks in need of a drop to 7f, unless previous wind issues are back . Won over 7f off 75 in the past.

Looks one who needs frequent breaks, usually best on second start. In right conditions certainly of interest given mark will continue to fall.

Race Replay

Royal Tribute
15/02/23 – 2.20 Dundalk:

Tracked pace in midfield three deep, travelled well, but looked awkward and hanging in the home straight. Solid follow-up from excellent runner-up performance in early February.

That day over 7f furlongs he made good use of low draw and tracked pace. Travelled really strongly into the home straight, on the bridle approaching 2f out, ran on for strong second. Form franked subsequently.

Becomes interesting if back over 7f and with any help from the handicapper with a good draw. Appears to be in fine form and not far off the excellent form shown on turf last summer.

Race Replay

Pittsburg
17/02/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Travelled on the inside well off the pace, going strongly, notably on the bridle entering the home straight with plenty to do. Not clear run until the final furlong marker; ran on easily.

Trip too short. Big price, wasn’t expected. Flat maiden but unexposed on the flat. Three strong performances prior over 1m to 11f. Will be interesting up in trip again, especially with any help from the handicapper.

Race Replay

Revoquable
17/02/23 – 5.15 Southwell:

Crossed over from widest draw quickly to track the leader closely before taking up the front from over 2f out. Gutsy and answering the challenges until getting tired inside the final furlong.

Will be intriguing once he drops below a 55 mark, ideally also down in trip to 7 furlongs. Should be strong runner in those circumstances.

Race Replay

Lady Nagin
17/02/23 – 6.15 Southwell:

Pulled her way to the front right before entering the bend. Wasted a lot of energy. Impressive attitude in the home straight when heavily challenged as she only went down fighting late in the final furlong.

Obviously has stamina for the trip and possibly beyond but keenness is an issue. Won well over CD lto, but I would be intrigued to see her dropping down to 5f, especially at at stiff finish like Newcastle.

Race Replay

Sunset Nova
17/02/23 – 5.30 Dundalk:

Settled well off the pace, travelled smoothly into the home straight wit ha wall of horses in front. Angled out to the stands’ side, as consequence relegated to last. Ran on a bit under pretty light ride.

Was seriously well backed in the morning from 33’s. 3rd run since gelding. Drops down to increasingly sexy mark. Any further help from the handicapper will be a intriguing. Probably 7f ideal at this stage but won over anything 6-8f.

Race Replay

My Little Tip
17/02/23 – 5.30 Dundalk:

Dwelt, lost a number of lengths at the start, then rapidly moved forward to track the pace on the inside. Was going well entering the home straight, answered the challenges before getting tired inside the final furlong.

Tricky sort, lost his way in the last year. Was rated 92 twelve months ago. Changed hands for £12,000 in August. Continued to perform poorly and fell down in the ratings.

Clear return to form. Off a 67 mark over 7 furlongs he looks dangerous if allowed to run on merit and if in the right mood. Dangerous sort, nonetheless.

Race Replay

Betting

Saturday Selections: 18th February 2023

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2.13 Lingfield: Classified Stakes, 7f

The short price favourite Daphne Bay has strong form thanks to his recent win in a similar contest over a mile where he also ran a fast speed rating. But he’s one who can find trouble at the gate and being far back in this race that may end up in a sprint finish will be a major disadvantage.

I am prepared to give much lower rated longshot Smarden Flyer a chance here, even though he’s already been pushed out further in the betting since I backed him. I don’t take too much notice of that because I feel there are good reasons to believe he will run on merit, and if does he has a top chance to go close.

Rob Havlin in the saddle and and the Jewell yard have a strong record in this type of race, also with bigger prices. Hence I don’t see it as too much of a negative.

He caught the eye two runs back at this course, although over a mile. That day he moved forward and pushed the pace early in the race. He was slightly impeded over 4f out, had to take a pull, and that’s never ideal for the horses of lesser talent. He travelled well enough on the outside subsequently, attempting to challenge from over 3f out, before he finished a tiered 4th.

He ran to a 52 speed rating there, which is excellent as far as recent form goes compared to the majority of opposition here. He couldn’t follow up the next time at Kempton. To be fair the 11f trip looked beyond his stamina.

He had an entry in a similar race last week but was taken out on the day. It may or may have not been only a coincidence that he had the widest draw allocated that day.

However, I believe from the #2 draw with the visor Smarden Flyer will move forward and potentially gets an easy lead as there is not much other pace to compete against.

His career best performance came over this trip back in May last year at Kempton; so 7 furlongs looks potentially an ideal distance especially if he can unwind from the front. he stays a bit further, so if he can establish a lead going into the home straight he could be hard to peg back.

10pts win – Smarden Flyer @ 16.5/1

………..

5.30 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

It’s totally worth taking on Magicdollar who hasn’t run a fast speed rating yet and could be outstayed by only viable alternative, that is handicap debutant Lady Bianca.

The filly left a huge impression when she stayed on strongly last month at Wolverhampton over 7 furlongs. She clearly is still raw and learning, but she started much better than previously, and was very honest in her performance.

Even though clearly finding it hard to keep up as the pace increased from four furlongs out, she was tough and game to get back into it and eventually chase home the winner for a strong runner-up finish with the fastest splits over the last thee furlongs.

She clearly wants a greater test of stamina, which is no surprise given the pedigree. She will get it here, moving up in trip over a mile with the stiff finish at Newcastle sure to suit.

This class 6 contest looks an ideal opportunity to get off the mark. The only concern is the weight. The filly, born in April, has to should 9-10, which is quite a bit more than she had in all her three starts to day, and simply judged in video, she doesn’t look to have the biggest frame.

I simply hope class will see her get through this. The lto run behind Born Ruler is by far the strongest piece of form, given he was only 1½L beaten prior behind a horse now rated 87. So an opening mark off 66, albeit not a giveaway, could underestimate her now racing over a more favourable distance.

10pts win – Lady Bianca @ 4/1