Tag Archives: Handicap

Betting

Monday Selections: August, 5th 2019

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4.00 Ripon: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

having dropped to a dangerously low handicap mark, the first time visored Delph Crescent looks to have found an ideal opportunity to get his name on the scoreboard again.

The 4-year-old ran well of much higher marks earlier this year already, but now down to an official rating of 72 offers a unique opportunity in a race that is wide open and is set to be run in conditions to suit.

Delph Crescent won three times last year, latest successes came off 73 and 78 and he also achieved topspeed rating

won of 73 and 78 3lb claim good form earlier this year visor of 78 and 71 back then. With a fair 3lb claimer in the saddle today he looks rather obviously well handicapped.

Selection:
10pts win – Delph Crescent @ 14/1 MB

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8.30 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Look Surprised won this twelve months ago and the mare looks in with an excellent shout this evening again. It’s a poor field she tackles here, while dropping to a very tasty mark, now 2lb lower than when winning it last year.

Her latest showing at Bath is slightly concerning as she was expected to run well, however her other three starts on turf this season where respectable, albeit not particularly good either.

One has to hope a return to Windor, a track Look Surprised has a 50% strike rate, can revive her best form. Certainly she has ran her to career best topspeed ratings of 68 and 64 the last two years.

Selection:
10pts win – Look Surprised @ 6/1 MB

Betting

Sunday Selections: August, 4th 2019

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2.00 Chester: Class 4 Nursery, 5f

Rarely do I get involved with juveniles, but I feel this race is for the taking, given the favourite has to deal with a stiff opening mark given by what he has shown in three starts so far, and the second favourite is certainly not well handicapped.

But the filly Shammah appears to be massively underestimated based on two below part efforts lately, however on unsuitably fast ground.

She looked potentially smart winning a novice contest at Windsor in June, though. Which is pretty strong form judged through the 3rd placed horse Hubert, who subsequently was only half a lengths beaten behind smart Homespin.

Shammah’s Windsor performance earned her a topspeed 79 rating, which came on good to soft. She’s dropped below that mark in handicapping terms, now on an official rating of 78. So from that perspective, given she also has a top draw today, finds conditions she likely enjoys, there is potentially more to come and she can easily be well in.

It’s important to note that more rain is on its way to Chester and Shammah’s dam has shown her best certainly with cut in the ground. Despite plenty of stamina in the pedigree, Shammah appears to break sharply, so she ma well be able to utilize the plum draw and her superior stamina, in a bid to go hard from the front today.

Selection:
10pts win – Shammah @ 5/1 MB

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3.55 Galway: Premier Handicap, 7f

another rarity: a bet on Irish flat racing! But, again, I feel pretty strong about a horse today, even though it’s the madness of Galway. Quickly turned out again, albeit slightly different circumstances, Rufus King looks sure to outrun his price.

He was a fine 4th on Tuesday here but ran out of gas in the closing stages over a trip stretching him as well as from a wider than ideal draw, which meant he had to do a little bit more than he’d want to have done in the early part of the race.

Today Rufus King drops down to 7 furlongs, is drawn in stall four and remains on a tasty handicap mark. He’s hasn’t won of this or similar ratings lately, however ran with plenty of credit, not only at Galway, but also of a pound higher in an ultra competitive handicap at Ripon last month.

Certainly he is on a handicap mark he’s sure to have a good chance of winning, granted he ran to higher topspeed ratings in the past a few times as well.

Selection:
10pts win – Rufus King @ 13/2 MB

Betting

Wednesday Selections: July, 31st 2019

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Leicester Racecourse

8.40 Leicester: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

A quick one for the lucky last at Leicester tonight: this looks an open, although pretty poor contest. I feel Smeaton offers the most upside with given conditions here, hence he looks still a shade overpriced.

The gelding remains searching for a maiden victory. However, he has already a supreme performance to his name – supreme in the context of this class and race:

On handicap debut back in May Smeaton finished a strong runner-up in a 9f race on soft ground that has worked out pretty well since then. He did that of a 64 opening mark, running to a topspeed rating of 65 that day.

Subsequently tried over further, he failed to produce the same sort of form, but the drop down to a mile with conditions seemingly to suit perfectly, as well as having dropped another 3lb in the mark to a career lowest 60 OR, offers Smeaton a superb opportunity to get off the mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Smeaton @ 4/1 MB

Betting

Monday Selections: July, 29th 2019

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6.50 Ffos Las: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Handytalk looks bound for a big performance today fitted with blinkers for the first time, while dropping markedly in grade with a top jockey on the back.

He’s ran really well earlier this summer over 6f-8f trips, placed twice and winning a 6f contest at Salisbury. He’s only a pound higher today but proved in the past to be capable of bettering that, having run two times to 76+ topspeed ratings.

Conditions will be fine today and this looks a much easier race than what he encountered the last two times.

Selection:
10pts win – Handytalk @ 7/2PP

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8.30 Ffos Las: Class 6 Handicap, 7.5f

Intriguing to see Cuttin’ Edge returning off a break and wind OP here at Ffos Las today. He’s got another entry later this week, which could suggest the Muir team is hoping for a big run and quick turnout.

Those vague hopes aside, Cuttin’ Edge is a hot contender in this low grade handicap if back on song, given he has fallen down to a mark of 58. He’s been running to topspeed ratings of 58 and higher a number of times on both turf and All-Weather, so if his breathing issues are rectified, he’d be bang here in this class.

Trip and ground are fine. The Muir yard has also a fine record in Ffos Las handicaps, even more so if Martin Dwyer is riding. Interesting enough, this is William Muir’s only runner today.

Selection:
10pts win – Cuttin’ Edge @ 14/1 MB

Betting

Friday Selections: July, 26th 2019

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5.35 Newmarket: Class 5 Handicap, 1 mile

Fleeting Freedom is an intriguing runner here: she drops down to a handy mark, racing in against opposition she is capable of beating by anything she has shown in the past, however, as she remains a maiden for quite some time now, you have question her attitude.

Nonetheless I’m prepared to back her in this race, that doesn’t look overly deep. I believe you can forgive her latest run when finishing last at Yarmouth which may have been down to the heavy ground. Before that, on her seasonal reappearance she came fourth only 1.5l beaten in a super hot contest that has worked out strongly ever since.

Three pounds lower than that day, Fleeting Freedom could be on a sexy handicap mark now. She has performed admirable of higher marks in similar conditions in the past, and having posted two topspeed performances of 75 already, I feel she is gearing up to take advantage of a career lowest mark now.

It’s a bonus that a good apprentice is on board, who claims 5lb and interestingly has only this single ride today.

Selection:
10pts win – Fleeting Freedom @ 15/1 MB

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7.15 Chepstow: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

A race for my taste: smallish field, little quality, pretty uncompetitive and an overvalued favourite. Lapidary is surely of interest on handicap debut after a fine novice win, but hardly set the world alight either and didn’t run particularly fast that would be in line with a stiff opening mark.

The other well fancied runners are hard to fancy at given prices. However, four-year-old Roman Spinner stands out in this field having pretty competitive form to her name already, having been placed against much hotter competition.

She had two fair runs after a break on the All-Weather in better class; albeit comfortably beaten, those runs are better than the bare form suggest. She drops down to class 5 now as well as another 2lb in her mark, leaving her 3lb lower than her last AW winning mark, though she was also only a neck beaten on turf of 2lb higher.

The fact all her wins came on the sand may be misleading, given Roman Spinner ran well on turf as well. Her best topspeed and RPR’s on turf and AW are not too far off each other: TS 82 last autumn achieved at Kempton, and 76 on the grass – with trip and ground conditions fine, she looks dangerously well handicapped today.

Selection:
10pts win – Roman Spinner @ 6/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: July, 25th 2019

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8.25 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Wide open contest but the one who’s quite intriguing is Oberyn Martel, particularly with De Sousa booked for the ride. If the 3-year-old could recapture any of his juvenile form, or for that matter, what he did on his seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton back in February, he’d have a massive chance.

This lad obviously went the wrong way and even of revised marks didn’t look like going close whatsoever over the last while. Nonetheless he remains of interest for me, now down to a highly dangerous mark.

He has a career best topspeed rating of 83 to his name, which tops anything in this field, and he has matched a 93 RPR on both turf and the All-Weather, which suggests he was not too long ago quite a decent horse – and legitimately rated way higher than right now.

Conditions should suit today. Top jockey in the saddle. Oberyn Martel is surely bound for a big ride if he still has the appetite for racing. On the other hand he could absolutely bomb out. It’s worth the risk at given prices.

Selection:
10pts win – Oberyn Martel @ 10/1 MB

Betting

Saturday Selections: July, 20th 2019

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Newbury racecourse

3.00 Newbury: Group 3 Hackwood Stakes, 6f

Fantastic renewal – you can make a case for more than half in the field, predominantly I have high on my shortlist the well backed Donjuan Triumphant, who will enjoy conditions, as well as the two 3-year-old s Khadeem and Oxted. Plus, probably a fair favourite, The Tin Man.

He’s a short price and you can see why. With cut in the ground, he takes a significant drop in class and has a high strike rate. Is he still the force of old, though? Maybe. But this is a super deep race and I can easily oppose him.

On prices, the one I like most now is last years runner-up Projection. He hasn’t shown the same level of form in two runs this year, but I like the fact he comes here with low mileage this season and he ran better than the bare results suggest in the Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.

He also drops in grade and will love the underfoot conditions today. There is a slight question mark whether all is well with him, given he dropped out tamely the last two races. A tongue tie is applied now. That is concerning, at the same time intriguing.

If the tongue tie does have any positive impact, it is easy to see Projection making a 16/1 price tag look foolish in the closing stages. So, there is risk attached here, but at given odds I’m prepared to take it.

Selection:
10pts win – Projection @ 16/1 MB

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5.00 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

I really like the look of both Durrell and Ironclad. Both met at Chelmsford recently and fought out first and second. Durrell had the upper hand that day and he is a fine prospect, though I wonder whether he will turn out to be a much better horse on the All-Weather.

Ironclad in contrast, who ran to a topspeed rating of 83 at Chemsford, has already proven his effectifness on turf, as he landed a minor race at Beverly in the meantime. That’s not form to shout about, and Ironclad still appeared plenty green enough, but it was probably a good learning experience.

This April foal is obviously well bred and through his pedigree offers plenty of upside, having every chance to be a better horse than an 81 rated handicapper. This imposing lad could be well handicapped of this opening mark I feel.

Selection:
10pts win – Ironclad @ 4/1 MB

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5.15 Ripon: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Two I’m keen on here from the lower end of the betting market: Alqaab stepping up to 6 furlongs for the first time is one of these. He’s a 4-year-old, so has to give weight away. But he’s a compelling horse over the new trip after a pretty decent effort over the minimum distance at Doncaster lately.

That was a super hot contest, and the fact he finished close enough, also posting a 61 topspeed rating, but has fallen to a 60 handicap mark now, is intriguing. He ran well in a couple of Novice races also, but now on a potentially good handicap mark, he can go well in this open contest.

The other one is the filly Sophia Maria in first time blinkers. She drops in trip, which should suit. She has some fine performances already in the book actually, finishing in the money on three occasions over 5- and 6 furlongs.

She also drops to a potentially tasty mark of 62 now, given she matched a 62 TS rating on her final start as juvenile already. There might be a bit more to come from her over this distance in handicap company I feel. Interesting jockey booking with Andrew Elliott, who has a superb record when having only one ride at Ripon in the Summer season!

Selections:
5pts win – Sophia Maria @ 21/1 MB
5pts win – Alqaab @ 17/1 WH

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7.00 Haydock: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Quick turnaround for Indomeneo, who ran well here at Haydock only 24 hours ago. He looked a little bit awkward in a race where he tracked a hot pace over a mile.

Upped to 10 furlongs, which looks fine on drying ground, a trip, even though he has a poor strike rate, he posted a career best topspeed rating in the past, won’t be an issue I reckon.

Indomeneo as fallen down to a sexy mark, having ran well of around ten pounds higher last season and is now 9lb lower than his last winning mark.

An excellent 3lb claimer is in the saddle – significantly it is Connor Murtagh’s only ride today.

Selection:
10pts win – Indomeneo @ 11/2 MB

Betting

Friday Selections: July, 19th 2019

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5.00 Nottingham: Class 6 Handicap, 8.5f

Compelling race for such a low grade: Baashiq and Admodum are high on my list, and the betting reflects it. But the lightly raced – on turf at least – Duchess Of Avon is an even more intriguing candidate.

He’s had only three starts on turf to date, of those he was close runner-up last season, achieving a career best effort with a neck beaten effort of a mark of 65 and running to a topspeed of 66. He probably needed his comeback run at Brighton in May after a 3 months long break, when he looked dangerous until fading in the final furlong.

He appeared in much better shape last time out at Brighton again, over a mile, winning a shade cozily, taking advantage of a career lowest handicap rating. That form looks rock solid.

With that in mind, the 4lb hike in the mark and slightly better race today may not stop Duchess Of Avon to be highly competitive once more, given he may still have a bit more to offer on this surface. Any rain wouldn’t be an issue judged on pedigree.

Selection:
10pts win – Duchess Of Avon @ 6/1 MB

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9.05 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

His latest run is a little bit concerning, of a lowered mark I am hopeful that Mr Orange can regain some of his last seasons form, back here at Pontefract with favoured conditions in a race he has already won twice in the past.

It’s this CD that brings the best out of Mr Orange – he has won of a career highest 78 handicap mark in class 3 last July, so now down to 72, a mark he has also won off last year, he could be quite competitive.

To be fair, bar that latest poor performance, Mr Orange ran with plenty of credit in competitive sprints this season. Never too far away, he may simply need to get a little help from the handicapper and find an easier race. All of which seems to be the case today.

Selection:
10pts win – Mr Orange @ 11/1 MB

Betting

Wednesday Selection: July, 17th 2019

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3.10 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Firenze Rosa comes here on the back of two solid efforts on turf but continues to fall dramatically in her handicap mark – now down to 47, a career lowest, and down into a poor class 6 Handicap on the All-Weather.

She didn’t do overly well in two AW starts in the past, but as a daughter of Zebedee she should be fine on the poly. On turf she ran to a career best topspeed rating of 73 and achieved TS ratings of 50 or better on seven occasions.

So, granted she looked not completely lost to the game in her last couple of starts, the 4-year-old could be supremely well handicapped today. This isn’t a strong race anyway, it’ll not take a career best to win it, that’s for sure.

In addition Firenze Rosa has the bonus of a competent 7lb claimer in the saddle also while the yard having a fine spell.

Selection:
10pts win – Firenze Rosa @ 12/1 PP

Betting

Friday Selections: July, 12th 2019

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Twilight Son

4.45 Newmarket: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

Im very much interested in Jim Crowley’s mount La Maquina here. This lightly raced four-year-old only has his fourth start on turf and should still have a bit more to give, than what his current handicap mark has revealed.

He showed promise as a juvenile and also last season, even though without getting his head in front. As an April foal he was always more likely to need a bit more time and finally at Goodwood back in May he got off the mark in a 7f Handicap.

He ran of 3lb lower than today but achieved a 82 topspeed rating, matching his revised handicap rating. He couldn’t follow up the net time at Kempton, however was badly hampered when making progress. So it’s a performance to ignore.

Ground and trip looks perfectly fine today. If La Maquina can find a bit of improvement, he’ll be a big runner in this, otherwise quite competitive race.

Selection:
10pts win – La Maquina @ 15/1 MB

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4.55 York: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

I’ll take a risk on Militia, having dropped 4lb below his last winning mark. This horse had issues, quite obviously. He’s been gelded and had a wind OP during a long seasonal break and was well beaten on his return last month.

That’s obvious concerns, but he possibly needed the run. The fact remains he is a 5f winner on fast ground, and also won of a 77 mark, running to a topspeed rating of 79 last July.

So, if he strips fitter today, can find some of last summer’s form back, with a god 3lb claimer in the saddle today, he certainly will outrun a massive price tag.

Selection:
10pts win – Militia @ 33/1 MB