Tag Archives: Flat Racing

Betting

Wednesday Selections: August, 8th 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

4.10 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Papa Delta is clearly a difficult horse to train given he had a couple of lengthy spells on the sidelines but that makes this lightly raced Makfi gelding interesting in the context of this race.

After more than a year off he made an excellent reappearance at Chepstow last month finishing fourth without getting the clearest of runs in a race that looks fair form.

He steps up to 7f for the first time today. A trip he should stay on pedigree as being by Makfi and out of a 7f Group 3 placed mare. He couldn’t drift much further in the handicap mark, in fact this rating gives him a big chance. The negative is the drift in the betting already.

Selection:
10pts win – Papa Delta @ 9/1 Coral

Betting

Monday Selections: August, 6th 2018

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8.30 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Handicap debutant United Kingdom is a tremendous chance in the lucky last tonight I feel. Granted these sprint handicaps at Windsor require a bit of luck from time to time, this mate will make his own luck.

He’s a full-brother to a filly Baciami Piccola, a French 5f listed placed and subsequent Group 3 winner in the US. United Kingdom had a late start as a juvenile but looked promising in his second outing at Kempton over 6f. Pulling hard, he led briefly in the closing stages until swept by from those off the pace.

His reappearance a few weeks ago at Leicester in a hot Novice Stakes continued to look promising. He shot out off the gate and led the field until 2f swept by now 83 and 85 rated individuals. He was clearly saved for handicaps in the closing stages as well.

Dropping down to 5f which should suit given the early speed has shown in the past, an opening mark of 65 looks generous. There is every chance he is better than that and a good break pretty much guaranteed should ensure he doesn’t run into trouble today.

Selection:
10pts win – United Kingdom @ 5/1 Sky

Betting

Wednesday Selections: August, 1st 2018

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3.35 Goodwood: Group 1 Sussex Stakes, 1m

On the face of it this is not a vintage renewal of the Sussex Stakes. As always the three year old’s hold an advantage thanks to WFA and that’s not different this time. But you can pick big holes into their form today. After all there is little between the top four or five in the betting market, in my mind.

Given that I can discount both Without Parole and Expert Eye purely for price reasons. The latter one returning to a mile seems not ideal despite a recent impressive success over 7f. Without Parole is clearly a fair favourite, however hasn’t beaten allot to this day, if we’re honest. Andre Fabre always needs to be respected but Orbaan has a lot to find. Gustav Klimt isn’t good enough on this level.

Leaves me with a decision who of the older horses is the best bet. Beat The Bank leads the way. Unlucky in the Queen Anne, he ran into trouble in the Summer Mile at the same venue weeks later again, though found a way to get his head in front.

Lord Glitter is closely matched but I feel he had every chance the other day at Ascot, so even at a big price he’s not one I fancy. While I fancy Beat The Bank to do damage today, at prices I think he’s close to what he should be.

Unlike veteran Lightning Spear. Now a seven year but as good as ever, he’s chasing the elusive first Group 1 victory. Today could be the day. He is as good as ever as proven in his two starts this year when a tight runner-up in the Lockinge Stakes and an excellent third in the Queen Anne.

He is an uncomplicated type who is a CD scorerm multiple Stakes winner and seven times placed on the highest level. Lightning Spear is the ultimate pro who will run his race which might be enough to finally get his head in front.

Selection:
10pts win – Lightning Spear @ 12.5/1 MB

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3.55 Redcar: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Lightly raced Nathanial colt Global Style drops back to 10f here as well as down in a class 5 Handicap. He didn’t look exactly like a truly well handicapped horse the last couple of starts, however had ran well enough all the same and in my eyes those performances looked slightly better than the bare form.

He clearly has a race in him, particularly one like this here, a rather uncompetitive affair, that is for the taking.

He’s not a speedy horse by any means. So pace will be key. You’d be hopeful there is a bit here today. That should allow Global Style to grind his way to the front when it matters.

He clearly is up to his current mark, and potentially a tad better. His third in a good class 3 contest over 12f at Thirsk, behind two good horses, proved it. A fair runner-up over CD back in June saw him only beaten for a turn of foot in the closing stages. Given he’s also an April foal means he may simply needed a bit of time to find his way also.

Selection:
10pts win – Global Style @ 5/1 MB

Betting

Tuesday Selections: July, 31st 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

1.50 Goodwood: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

Still to some extend unexposed and open to further improvement is Jim Crowley’s mount Alfarris. A progressive sort, he won on seasonal reappearance a hot class 3 Handicap at Chelmsford in commanding style.

Returning two weeks later at Sandown stepping up in class he travelled supremely well even though the race with its start-stop gallop wasn’t set up to see him to best effect. Ultimately the pace setter pulled out more in the closing stages.

That was a clear career best performance by Alfarris resulting in a 93 TS rating. He’s upped 2lb for the effort but in the context of the race here he has a really nice weight and a good draw too.

Selection:
10pts win – Alfarris @ 7/1 PP

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3.35 Goodwood: Group 1 Goodwood Cup, 2m

Defending champion Stradivarius is the obvious one and hard to beat after two excellent wins this year. But at given prices I have a go with Call To Mind who remains unexposed over the 2m trip and also looks to get better with time.

He won a 1m 6f Listed contest here at Goodwood last year and has backed this up with some big performances in graded company. He was also third in this years Yorkshire Cup behind Stradivarius – a fair margin beaten, though.

A subsequent Grade 2 success in the Belmont Gold Cup in June when attempting the full 2 miles for the first time set him up nicely for a big performance today, I feel where he can chase home the hot favourite.

Selection:
10pts win – Call To Mind @ 16/1 PP

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4.45 Goodwood: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

Tricky race where I give Just Glamorous a chance to find back some form after two rather below-par efforts this year. A real speed-ball who should enjoy exactly this type of test, he drops to a more likely mark as well as down from Graded company.

Just Glamorous has shown in the past to be able to to this sort of mark and time speed figures back this up. The question is whether he still got it as the drop off between what he showed at the back end of last season to the two efforts this year are stark.

Selection:
10pts win – Just Glamorous @ 27/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: July, 26th 2018

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8.50 Newbury: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Bottom weight He’s Our Star can go back to back today, after a rather impressive maiden win in a class 5 Handicap against his own age four weeks ago at this very venue.

He seemed slightly flat footed early on as the pace was strong – that’s the major concern dropping down to 7f today – but found himself with a wall of horses to pass in the home straight.

Once with  bit of daylight the three year old gelding jump for it, producing a nice turn of foot to win a shade cozily on the line, despite the close winning margin.

He’s only gone up 3lb for this success, while the form has been franked multiple times in the meantime. He also raced to a TS rating of 67 that day, which equals his new mark.

With a low weight today and a potentially underestimation of his true merit by the handicapper, He’s Our Star should have a cracking chance to follow-up on this recent success today, as long he isn’t completely taken off his feat by slightly shorter trip.

Selection:
10pts win – He’s Our Star @ 5/1 PP

Betting

Saturday Selections: July, 14th 2018

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1.40 Newmarket: Class 2 Handicap, 7f

Tough race to break down, but I feel, despite the big price, there is a good case to be made for the only three year old in the race – Cardsharp.

A runner-up in the Middle Park Stakes last year, he has trained on as he won a good listed race last month and subsequently wasn’t totally disgraced in hotter company.

This here ain’t much easier, given he has a massive handicap mark to carry around. But WFA allowance lessens the burden a bit. He also has ran to a 100+ time speed rating in the past, which is a sign of high class horse.

Given he brings proven Group class form into this race, enjoys fast ground and has fair recent form. The step up to 7f is a question mark as he’s not proven yet to be able to bring his 6f form over the longer trip.

But, in fairness, he ran in hot races over 7f and on pedigree he actually should be excel this sort of distance. The likely fast will surely be a help today to see him to best effect, so at a big price I give Cardsharp a decent chance to be in the shake up when it matters.

Selection:
10pts win – Cardsharp @ 20/1 PP

……..

7.30 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 12f

Killdeer should progress nicely and with the WFA advantage is clearly the one to beat. Nonetheless it’s not a given, and with proven force Mutadaffeq in the race, I side with the experience here.

Mutadaffeq has dropped to a sexy mark despite running relatively well in recent weeks. It’s true he looked in the grip of the handicapper but that solely because of consistency. He’s down a pound on his last winning mark, even though on soft ground, he also has winning form on a fast surface.

The fact Mutadaffeq has ran to time speed rating of 85 in the past suggests he’s due for a big performance today over a distance he’s a 23% strike rate.

Selection:
10pts win – Mutadaffeq @ 4/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: July, 12th 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

5.45 Doncaster: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Acadian Angel has been largely disappointing this season after largely promising efforts as a three year old last year. As a result she has tumbled down the weights to what looks a dangerous mark.

She returns to a place she’s won before over the same distance and ground conditions. While she hasn’t been knocking on the door lately, digging a bit deeper her form seems not too bad, in fact. She ran to time speed ratings in and around her current mark.

In addition a visor has been applied for the first time, that may eke out some improvement. Certainly having Silvestre De Sousa on board is an added bonus.

Selection:
10pts win – Acadian Angel @ 10/3 Coral

Betting

Wednesday Selections: July, 11th 2018

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4.10 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 2 miles

A wide open long distance handicap that could go the way of featherweight Kittileo. Only eight stone to carry, the sole three year old in the race has a massive chance to win on what is his fifth career start – if he stays the trip and acts on the fast ground.

He showed promise on occasions, but I feel the Mark Johnston runner might come over these marathon trips into his own. His pedigree gives him any chance to improve and Galileo’s have a tremendous record here at Catterick over this sort of trip.

Receiving weight all around, Kittileo has the added advantage of a good draw, which even over longer trips, can make a difference here at Catterick. Given, he has shown to be enjoy the lead in his runs same tactics will surely be employed here as well at a course where those up with the pace have always a big advantage.

Selection:
10pts win – Kittileo @ 13/2 GB

Betting

Tuesday Selections: July, 10th 2018

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8.40 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

This is a brutal race quality wise. Gives the Daniel Kubler trained filly Chizz De Biz a tremendous chance to leave a recent disappointing run behind after she got off the mark here at Brighton so impressively in June.

That was over 6f in an equally quite poor contest. However, she showed excellent pace and won cosily in the end suggesting there is more to come. A drop to slightly shorter didn’t yield in improvement, however now stepping up to 7f only four pounds higher than her earlier success looks ideal.

Her pedigree offers hope to stay the extra mile. The way she ran up the hill the other day and the fact that fast ground will be a huge help mean she should enjoy this task going off the #1 draw as well, providing an opportunity to grab the rail being while being close to the pace.

Chizz De Biz is also the least exposed horse in the field who has achieved the highest lifetime time speed rating of anyone in the race also.

Selection:
10pts win – Chizz De Biz @ 4/1 PP

Betting

Saturday Selections: July, 7th 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Another nice winner today – Saroog did that impressively at Sandown this afternoon, following on from Archimedes’s excellent win on Wednesday. A bit on a roll at the moment…. long may it last after some desperate weeks preceding it.

Eclipse tomorrow. No Masar, but quick turnaround for Saxon Warrior. I think I fancy stable mate Happily, who was desperately unlucky in the Diane. However, only a race to watch at given prices and no bet.

It’s also Durban July day. I’ll have a proper look tomorrow morning. Possibly putting up a selection for South Africa’s most prestigious race later on Saturday. Also to look forward to is the return of Mendelssohn at Belmont in the evening.

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2.45 Sandown: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

Open contest that is at the mercy of a progressive horse. Manthoor fits the bill. Still generally lightly raced, he showed promise as a juvenile. Particularly his Kempton runner-up performance in September behind now 90 rated (and NTO winner) Corrosive is excellent form.

He returned last month after having undergone a wind OP over the winter. In a poor maiden he didn’t have trouble winning. That was expected. The manner he did, though, was exciting. Travelling well throughout, quickening nicely on the fast ground and holding his pursuers hands and heels in the closing stages.

The form is franked through subsequent handicap placings by the second and third. An opening mark of 84 isn’t easy task but could underestimate the improvement left in Manthoor who may be able to exert himself even better second up from a break and wind surgery.

Selection:
10pts win – Manthoor @ 10/3 WH