Tag Archives: Flat Racing

Sunday Selections: August, 4th 2019

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2.00 Chester: Class 4 Nursery, 5f

Rarely do I get involved with juveniles, but I feel this race is for the taking, given the favourite has to deal with a stiff opening mark given by what he has shown in three starts so far, and the second favourite is certainly not well handicapped.

But the filly Shammah appears to be massively underestimated based on two below part efforts lately, however on unsuitably fast ground.

She looked potentially smart winning a novice contest at Windsor in June, though. Which is pretty strong form judged through the 3rd placed horse Hubert, who subsequently was only half a lengths beaten behind smart Homespin.

Shammah’s Windsor performance earned her a topspeed 79 rating, which came on good to soft. She’s dropped below that mark in handicapping terms, now on an official rating of 78. So from that perspective, given she also has a top draw today, finds conditions she likely enjoys, there is potentially more to come and she can easily be well in.

It’s important to note that more rain is on its way to Chester and Shammah’s dam has shown her best certainly with cut in the ground. Despite plenty of stamina in the pedigree, Shammah appears to break sharply, so she ma well be able to utilize the plum draw and her superior stamina, in a bid to go hard from the front today.

Selection:
10pts win – Shammah @ 5/1 MB

……..

3.55 Galway: Premier Handicap, 7f

another rarity: a bet on Irish flat racing! But, again, I feel pretty strong about a horse today, even though it’s the madness of Galway. Quickly turned out again, albeit slightly different circumstances, Rufus King looks sure to outrun his price.

He was a fine 4th on Tuesday here but ran out of gas in the closing stages over a trip stretching him as well as from a wider than ideal draw, which meant he had to do a little bit more than he’d want to have done in the early part of the race.

Today Rufus King drops down to 7 furlongs, is drawn in stall four and remains on a tasty handicap mark. He’s hasn’t won of this or similar ratings lately, however ran with plenty of credit, not only at Galway, but also of a pound higher in an ultra competitive handicap at Ripon last month.

Certainly he is on a handicap mark he’s sure to have a good chance of winning, granted he ran to higher topspeed ratings in the past a few times as well.

Selection:
10pts win – Rufus King @ 13/2 MB

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Friday Selections: August, 2nd 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile after race

2.35 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 6f

A re chance to back a horse on the sand over the summer today: The Blues Master is a silly price. Sure, there is a Mark Prescott favourite who may well be hard to beat if the improvement so often seen in his horses comes to fruition. Though, his record on the All-Weather this year is significantly down compared to other years.

I think this favourite is for the taking at odds-on. Hence The Blues Master is pretty much a logic choice. He returned to the track after a long lay-off when finishing a strong runner-up at Newcastle at the end of June.

Only one pound higher today but a class lower, while stepping up in trip to a more suitable 1 mile & 6 furlongs, given he ran to a topspeed rating of 71 in the past, I feel he will be really competitive today.

Selection:
10pts win – The Blues Master @ 9.5/1 MB

……..

7.30 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Los Camachos on his first run for the John Gallagher yard is an interesting runner in a race that has not too much quality in depth. The gelding was claimed and I would argue he ran pretty to form and current handicap in his last two runs in claiming company.

He appears to be slightly better on the All-Weather, but even on turf, despite a win yet, he’s been four out of six times in the money. He also ran to a topspeed rating of 78 last summer here at Newmarket, something he matched and bettered at the All-Weather.

Los Camachos also ran to TS 77 in a claimer three starts back, suggesting he is still pretty much in this range.

So, for a new yard with an excellent 5lb claimer in the saddle, with conditions to suit, at a track he performed well before, of a mark of 78, I feel this lad is well overpriced.

Selection:
10pts win – Los Camachos @ 17/1 MB

…………

7.50 Bath: Class 4 Handicap, 5 furlongs

As the The Daley Express is out, who’d I’ considered a major player for the victory in this race, it opens the door for Just Glamorous who drops into class 4 where he is three wins from four runs.

The six-year-old may not quite be the force of old but appears to handicapped to go close, nonetheless. He’s been running rather well in four of five starts this season, bar one to forget over in Ireland.

Now down to a mark of 83 again, the same he came an agonizingly close second at Goodwood in May of, when he also matched an 83 topspeed rating, Just Glamorous is weighted to win.

The ground may be a bit too fast to be considered optimum conditions, as he also has an engagement at Thirsk tomorrow, there is a ‘risk’ hell be a none-runner. But he has form on fast surfaces, and with first time cheek pieces fitted plus a pretty competent 7lb claimer in the saddle, I’d love to see him taking his chance this evening.

Selection:
10pts win – Just Glamorous @ 9/2 MB

Wednesday Selections: July, 31st 2019

Leicester Racecourse

8.40 Leicester: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

A quick one for the lucky last at Leicester tonight: this looks an open, although pretty poor contest. I feel Smeaton offers the most upside with given conditions here, hence he looks still a shade overpriced.

The gelding remains searching for a maiden victory. However, he has already a supreme performance to his name – supreme in the context of this class and race:

On handicap debut back in May Smeaton finished a strong runner-up in a 9f race on soft ground that has worked out pretty well since then. He did that of a 64 opening mark, running to a topspeed rating of 65 that day.

Subsequently tried over further, he failed to produce the same sort of form, but the drop down to a mile with conditions seemingly to suit perfectly, as well as having dropped another 3lb in the mark to a career lowest 60 OR, offers Smeaton a superb opportunity to get off the mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Smeaton @ 4/1 MB

Saturday Selections: July, 20th 2019

Newbury racecourse

3.00 Newbury: Group 3 Hackwood Stakes, 6f

Fantastic renewal – you can make a case for more than half in the field, predominantly I have high on my shortlist the well backed Donjuan Triumphant, who will enjoy conditions, as well as the two 3-year-old s Khadeem and Oxted. Plus, probably a fair favourite, The Tin Man.

He’s a short price and you can see why. With cut in the ground, he takes a significant drop in class and has a high strike rate. Is he still the force of old, though? Maybe. But this is a super deep race and I can easily oppose him.

On prices, the one I like most now is last years runner-up Projection. He hasn’t shown the same level of form in two runs this year, but I like the fact he comes here with low mileage this season and he ran better than the bare results suggest in the Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.

He also drops in grade and will love the underfoot conditions today. There is a slight question mark whether all is well with him, given he dropped out tamely the last two races. A tongue tie is applied now. That is concerning, at the same time intriguing.

If the tongue tie does have any positive impact, it is easy to see Projection making a 16/1 price tag look foolish in the closing stages. So, there is risk attached here, but at given odds I’m prepared to take it.

Selection:
10pts win – Projection @ 16/1 MB

…….

5.00 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

I really like the look of both Durrell and Ironclad. Both met at Chelmsford recently and fought out first and second. Durrell had the upper hand that day and he is a fine prospect, though I wonder whether he will turn out to be a much better horse on the All-Weather.

Ironclad in contrast, who ran to a topspeed rating of 83 at Chemsford, has already proven his effectifness on turf, as he landed a minor race at Beverly in the meantime. That’s not form to shout about, and Ironclad still appeared plenty green enough, but it was probably a good learning experience.

This April foal is obviously well bred and through his pedigree offers plenty of upside, having every chance to be a better horse than an 81 rated handicapper. This imposing lad could be well handicapped of this opening mark I feel.

Selection:
10pts win – Ironclad @ 4/1 MB

……

5.15 Ripon: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Two I’m keen on here from the lower end of the betting market: Alqaab stepping up to 6 furlongs for the first time is one of these. He’s a 4-year-old, so has to give weight away. But he’s a compelling horse over the new trip after a pretty decent effort over the minimum distance at Doncaster lately.

That was a super hot contest, and the fact he finished close enough, also posting a 61 topspeed rating, but has fallen to a 60 handicap mark now, is intriguing. He ran well in a couple of Novice races also, but now on a potentially good handicap mark, he can go well in this open contest.

The other one is the filly Sophia Maria in first time blinkers. She drops in trip, which should suit. She has some fine performances already in the book actually, finishing in the money on three occasions over 5- and 6 furlongs.

She also drops to a potentially tasty mark of 62 now, given she matched a 62 TS rating on her final start as juvenile already. There might be a bit more to come from her over this distance in handicap company I feel. Interesting jockey booking with Andrew Elliott, who has a superb record when having only one ride at Ripon in the Summer season!

Selections:
5pts win – Sophia Maria @ 21/1 MB
5pts win – Alqaab @ 17/1 WH

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7.00 Haydock: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Quick turnaround for Indomeneo, who ran well here at Haydock only 24 hours ago. He looked a little bit awkward in a race where he tracked a hot pace over a mile.

Upped to 10 furlongs, which looks fine on drying ground, a trip, even though he has a poor strike rate, he posted a career best topspeed rating in the past, won’t be an issue I reckon.

Indomeneo as fallen down to a sexy mark, having ran well of around ten pounds higher last season and is now 9lb lower than his last winning mark.

An excellent 3lb claimer is in the saddle – significantly it is Connor Murtagh’s only ride today.

Selection:
10pts win – Indomeneo @ 11/2 MB

Thursday Selections: July, 11th 2019

Newmarket July Course

2.25 Newmarket: Group 2 July Stakes, 6f

Exciting renewal with two potential stars in the lineup. Favourite Visinari certainly appeals as a top drawer in the making, having been so impressive on his debut when achieving a topspeed rating of 98!

However, at a short price, with a viable alternative top pitch against him, I’ll happily take him on with Coventry Stakes 3rd Guildsman. He also won pretty well on debut, running to TS 90, which is a sign of a top class horse, and proved that with an excellent performance at Royal Ascot, posting a 97 TS.

The ground is faster today than he has encountered yet, remains to be seen how he acts on it. So far Wootton Bassett offspring done well on fast ground and 6 furlongs, so concerns are more down to that we haven’t seen Guildsman racing on firm ground yet.

Selection:
10pts win – Guildsman @ 4/1 MB

………

5.10 Newmarket: Class 3 Handicap, 1 mile

Very few in this race appear to be well handicapped. That says Martineo could well be after a string of excellent performances, now stepping up to the 1 mile distance for the first time in quite a while.

He’s predominantly do his best over shorter distances – 6f and 7f in particular, on the All-Weather. I don’t think Martineo is less effective on turf, though, and the few times he ran over a mile he was competitive, also on pedigree the trip shouldn’t be an issue whatsoever.

He’ll need to settle, obviously, but this is only his sixth start on turf, having been in the money on four occasions. He’s ran to topspeed of 81 on the AW and 75 on turf in the past, so if there is any bit of improvement for the trip and surface, he could look a massive price this afternoon.

Selection:
10pts win – Martineo @ 17.5/1 MB

……..

7.15 Newbury: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Star Of War looks overpriced for a poor field for this class. The filly has shown some talent in the past, has been steadily improving and only was found out in tough competition at Royal Ascot lately. A steep drop in class will help today.

She showed fair form as a juvenile in three starts but really excelled at the beginning of this season, winning a Kempton maiden easily and following up with two nice runs in class 3 Handicaps over a mile.

The three-year-old steps up in trip to 10 furlongs for the first time. On pedigree she has a fair chance to get the distance. If that can eke out further improvement, than she’ll be well in here of a mark of 82, given she has ran to TS 83 already.

Selection:
10pts win – Star Of War @ 12.5/1 MB

Tuesday Selections: July 10th 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

3.20 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 6f

Interesting step up in trip for Soloist, who shaped like she may get this new distance after a fine runner-up effort at Catterick recently over 1m 3f.

That was only her second handicap start, and the lightly raced filly improved quite a bit that day from what she showed in four runs before.

She ran to a 70 topspeed rating that day, so the 1lb adjustment of her mark is probably more than fair – if she can improve for experience and distance, indeed.

Selection:
10pts win – Soloist @ 4/1 MB

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5.45 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

Fortune And Glory drops down to class 6 and is back on the All-Weather over his preferred mile trip at the place he ran to a career best last summer. Off 2lb lower he won a similar race really well, achieving a 65 topspeed rating as a consequence.

He won another race on turf later on at Salisbury, so now dropping again to quite handy mark after a number of not so good efforts is interesting, particularly in light of the most recent run, where, despite only finishing 7th, he wasn’t far beaten and caught the eye.

The aid of a good draw should help to be in a good position here in a race that is not all that competitive.

Selection:
10pts win – Fortune And Glory @ 7/2 MB

……..

6.00 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

This looks an ideal opportunity for Ramatuelle to score on what is her second handicap start and only 6th career start. Possibly campaigned over way too short as a juvenile, and ‘enjoying’ a pipe opener over a mile in May, she now is upped to a trip likely to suit on pedigree.

Her sire Champs Elysees has a superb record over 10f, particularly at Bath and on fast ground. The dam side points to this sort of distance also. Dropped to 51 after her handicap debut, Sir Mark Prescott has campaigned the 3-year-old smartly as of this mark, with these conditions, in quite a poor race, Ramatuelle will be a strong contender.

She also has a number of subsequent entries already, suggesting connections may well believe she is well in, turning her out quickly again.

Selection:
10pts win – Ramatuelle @ 11/1 MB

Monday Selections: July, 8th 2019

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7.10 Ripon: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

He looks not the likeliest on recent form, however a wind surgery might do the trick for 3-year-old Fume. A son of Frankel, and a half-brother to solid Mesquite, now down to a rating of 69 in a rather poor contest offers a big opportunity to get off the mark, if the wind OP has helped.

Fume showed promise as a juvenile, particularly on the All-Weather, having beaten only by a neck twice last November of 69 and 72 ratings, also running a topspeed rating of 69.

A fair 3rd place effort in April this year also showed he’s trained on, so the breathing may indeed have been the problem the last twice.

Selection:
10pts win – Fume @ 14/1 MB

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8.50 Windsor: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 3.5f

Small and competitive field but the most upside is with Fearless Warrior I believe. He’s a tricky sort now fitted with blinkers for the first time after three rather disappointing efforts this season.

He should be a sort that’s improving with age as a son of Sea The Stars born in April, so’ll happily give him another chance.

Fearless Warrior is down to a mark of 80 now, but finished last season with a strong runner-up effort at Newmarket running to a topspeed rating of 83. If there is still a bit more to come and the blinkers help to focus, then he should run a huge race today.

Selection:
10pts win – Fearless Warrior @ 7/2 MB