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Betting

Wednesday Selections: 12th June 2024

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A winner is always nice, especially coming off THAT Saturday… but it could – maybe should have been – two winners.

Spring Is Sprung made all to win nicely at Pontefract. Safari Dream only beaten in the dying strides after going off way too fast.

Penalty Shootout was supremely well-backed but faded like the majority of horses I back these days. Probably did too much too soon and didn’t get home.

……

9.00 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m½f

Shahnaz could enjoy a perfect race, up with the pace in a race where not too many may want to make it a hot race for the lead. The mare clearly is returning in some fine form, as evidenced by her recent reappearance over this course and distance.

She loves it here: 2 wins from 4 runs, and the most recent one highly encouraging when fifth, less than four lengths beaten.

She was a bit sluggish out of the gates but quickly moved forward to lead, travelling nicely on the bridle. She showed a lovely attitude once under pressure and kept going before eventually eased in the final furlong.

The run should put her spot on for today. An additional pound off the mark is a bonus. She still ran some good speed ratings last season, two times 55+ in fact, and if she strips fitter today, there’s no reason not to believe she’s still that good.

A fine low draw will help to keep the effort to a minimum at the beginning, as long as she starts quickly. This is also a weaker contest than three weeks ago. There’s some money coming all morning for her, no surprise (from 10’ss as low as 4/1 now, but Exchanges still give 6.4-8 for a proper stake).

10pts win – Shahnaz @ 11/2

Betting, Uncategorized

Monday Selections: 10th June 2024

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I’m still a bit in a state of shock after Saturday, 0/6… it’s going from bad to worse. I guess the positive is: three decent runs, and the majority were prices you can’t expect to go in any day.

But at some point a proper upswing should be on the cards now…?

……

7.40 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Safari Dream ran well in his last three races, although he was outclassed, ultimately, in his most recent start at Goodwood, but at least showed once again a fine attitude to finish the race.

He caught the eye the two times prior, in much more obvious fashion. In early May at Salisbury he couldn’t quite find the acceleration in deep ground, yet travelled incredibly strongly to the 2 furlong marker, and just as he seemed to find momentum again, got squeezed out in the closing stages.

At Windsor on before that, he travelled strongly too, and didn’t enjoyed the clearest of passages, getting stuck behind horses. Both runs the 4-year-old gelding suggested he’s in excellent form and the most recent performance doesn’t put me off.

He drops down to class 5 again. Much easier, also with the added support from the handicapper, who dropped Safari Dream to 70, with excellent 5lb claiming apprentice Oliver Searle on board.

The only danger is that if he doesn’t get off to a quick start, he may find himself locked in against the inside rail.

10pts win – Safari Dream @ 9/2

……

6.30 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Spring Is Sprung should have a cracking chance from his low draw and his blistering early speed to potentially dominate, or at least get it easier in the early stages of the races than others.

His turf record doesn’t read too well, but he ran with plenty of credit the last two times, following on from a long break and wind operation.

Especially last time out at Catterick where he got off to a great start, although pestered throughout, set a hot enough pace and only got beaten in the final furlong.

Today is formally a slightly easier race, and another 2lb off his mark can only help. He could be quite well-handicapped now, given last summer he ran well off 78 and 80 in hot handicaps and he has multiple 70+ speed ratings on his CV.

10pts win – Spring Is Sprung @ 7/2

……..

8.10 Windsor: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

I loved the handicap debut from Penalty Shootout a few weeks ago. It was a gigantic step forward from anything the 3-year-old gelding showed in three maiden races.

He was soon up with the pace, travelling seriously well into the home straight, still on the bridle 3 furlongs out and only tiredness seemed to get the better off him late.

If he can improve from that run, he’ll must have serious chance today. Still unexposed, a mark of 60 may underestimate him, as he ran already a fine 55 speed ratings the last time.

He was quite well backed that day too, and the same seems to be the case today. Intriguing to see Oisin Murphy retaining the ride. The pedigree is an intriguing one too, as a son of Bungle Inthejungle the 10f trip doesn’t seem a natural fit.

But I believe if was tiredness, not stamina, that saw him fade at Nottingham. Also the dam is a significant stamina influence looking at the family.

10pts win –  Penalty Shootout @ 4/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 8th June 2024

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1.30 Beverley: Maiden Stakes, 7.5f

Mysteryofthesands looks underestimated moving back into maiden company. Still chasing a first career victory, he impressed the last time at Haydock, though.

He overcame a wider than ideal draw and quickly moved forward on the outside, chasing the leader, before taking it up from 3 furlongs out, travelling well. He was only beaten by two horses from off the pace but came clear of the rest of the pack.

He ran well at Beverly over this trip prior, having been keen from a wider than ideal draw as well. Both forms look good and he should be a bit better than this mark, so could be of interest in handicap company but this looks a race for the taking.

He has shown solid early speed and may be able to grab an uncontested lead here. The ground is a question mark, he seems to hit it quite well and only raced on softer ground so far, but the pedigree gives him a solid chance to actually improve for decent underfoot conditions.

10pts win – Mysteryofthesands @ 9/2

……..

3.35 Haydock: Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes, 7f

 Quinault looks seriously underappreciated here as one who still be able to improve into a solid Stakes performer. He has risen through the ranks last year and ran incredibly well, more often than not, in super competitive handicaps.

He won seven races last year over 6 and 7 furlongs, many of them and decent to fast ground, including two hot Handicaps at Newmarket and Ascot. I also feel his two most recent performances warrant a clear upgrade.

He was not advantaged by the draw in his final run in 2023, and neither was he last month at Newmarket. In addition to the draw, that saw him confined to a small, isolated group on the far side, he missed the break (not a habit, yet) and a less than ideal route to the front of the small pack eventually, where he also pulled seriously hard.

It was a huge performance to keep going for as long as he did as he won the race of his small group too.

There’s plenty of pace in the race today, that will help him to settle. Hopefully he can start quickly, as he normally does. His stamina will be stretched to the limit but this flat track will suit.  Quinault is drawn right beside Pogo, has a low draw and should find himself in an ideal spot in the closing stages.

10pts win –  Quinault @ 13/1

…….

4.10 Haydock: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

I quite liked all four career runs from Kindest Nation this year. Lightly raced, and usually to the front of the field, she is open to improvement and could enjoy the conditions today.

The Hugo Palmer trained filly was her greatest enemy on debut when dwelling, before finishing strongly. She went on to win in impressive style a maiden at Southwell where she overcame a wide draw.

She didn’t seem quite home at Beverley but showed a lovely attitude in the final furlong, before, possibly not quite getting home over a mile in soft ground conditions when last seen.

Those last two forms look strong on paper, though, and she deserves her spot in this race, which is an ever so slight drop to the 0-80 Handicap that has been franked in the meantime.

The fast ground is a question mark in so far as she never tried it yet, but pedigree suggests it could bring out some improvement, even. The drop to 7f can only suit in my view, and in a race with a possible lack of pace she may enjoy the run of the race.

10pts win – Kindest Nation @ 8/1

…….

4.45 Haydock: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

Mustajaab looked an improved horse after a gelding operation when he reappeared at Southwell, given how easily he kicked clear in a competitive Handicap from near top-weight.

He ran a lot better at Ascot last month in a hot race, than the bare form suggests, though, given the circumstances. Drawn far away from the pace, he had to move across early on, found himself without cover from a long way out, and was badly carried over from over 3f out, nonetheless making good progress all the time.

He profile suggests softer ground is what he wants but truth is he didn’t have many opportunities on faster ground so far, and if so that came in hot races where he was big prices too.

It’s worth a chance, because there’s the possibility that he can be a bit better than his current 92 rating, and crucially he’s ideally drawn right beside the pace here, to hopefully tow him into the finish. He’s got speed and will not be lacking for effort.

10pts win – Mustajaab @ 9-5/1

……..

5.05 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Hot race, plenty of pace. Who’ll last home? Vadamiah could be the one from her good low draw, over a course and distance she loves and ground she clearly acts on.

Her recent seasonal reappearance was a gigantic effort in an equally fast race where she blasted through the first two furlongs the quickest, travelled strongly and just got beaten by less than a lengths by two in-form horses.

A pound up for that brings her right to her best ratings on speed and win form but she loves it at Catterick, three CD wins are prove, she won in this class as well and the 3lb of excellent apprentice Mark Winn could be critical today.

I don’t see too many getting involved in this in the closing stages, actually. Few appear anywhere near well-handicapped and with Vadamiah possibly hitting her physical peak as a 5-year-old now, she could still improve a bunch of pounds in these conditions.

10pts win – Vadamiah @ 9/2

…….

6.10 Catterick: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

I find this yard hard to catch, and so is So Grateful, a gelding reserving his best often for the sand. But if on a going day and allowed to run on merit he could be quite well-handicapped today, given 6f on fast ground with with an ideal draw at this track should seriously suit.

He caught the eye last time at Carlisle when racing forward up with a hot pace and didn’t tire too badly, which should prove solid form, with the first three home all tried in higher grade the next time.

So Grateful drops in grade today, this is more his realistic level and he’s a couple of pounds below his last winning mark. That came on fast ground at Pontefract off 65 last July, as most his wins come during the summer months.

He won twice over 6 furlongs, so the trip is within his range. From the #2 draw he should be able to move quickly forward and track the pace, to be right up there when it matters most.

His 7lb claiming apprentice has still a lot to learn but the weight allowance comes in handy, I reckon. He could be really well-handicapped today, all taking into account. With this yard you never know, though. He may drift out to 25/1 and misses the break…

10pts win – So Grateful @ 10/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 7th June 2024

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4.08 Thirsk: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 5f

Lotus Rose runs against her own sex today again, with a good high draw and pace to tow her in to the finish drawn right beside her. The filly, albeit not easy to catch, ran pretty well this season, bar a poor comeback run in early April.

She was second and third subsequently over 6 furlongs, and that form doesn’t look too shabby, including on speed ratings achieved. Dropped to the minimum trip when last seen, she overcame quickly a sluggish start and then chased a hot pace.

She fell away from 2f out, but this was a seriously strong race for the class, her draw wasn’t ideal, her poor start didn’t help, and taking all that into context it was a fine run more or less in line with those two previous performances.

Lotus Rose returns to Thirsk over 5 furlongs, against her own sex today, down to a sexy mark, 7lb below her last winning mark as a previous course and distance winner. She may profit from a stronger rider in the saddle too, with Sam James, who won on the mare in the past, back in the reigns.

She has won on fast ground, so I don’t think that’s an issue. She can break sluggishly, though. That’s a danger, of course. If all goes well, she could be too well handicapped in this race today.

10pts win – Lotus Rose @ 17/2

…..

6.45 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

I was keen on Parisiac the last day at Yarmouth and am prepared to give him another chance. He threw his race away at the gate, as he swerved to his right violently and then did way too much early on to get to the front of the race.

He did quite well in the circumstances, and the form looks good as well. Another pound off his mark doesn’t make much difference because he was lurking on a dangerous OR already.

He caught my eye back in March at Doncaster for the first time in a hot class 3 contest, so he takes a big drop in class today.

He was not up to the task against much classier opposition back then, but showed a nice attitude, not giving in, even when beaten, after pushing a hot pace early on.

He’s a pound below his last winning mark now, and still managed to achieve good speed ratings last season; those last two performances suggest he’s not too far off that form, if he can get a clean break.

Parisiac swerved to his right the last three times, and that’s a danger that the same scenario as last time unfolds, where he’s left with too much do, given he’s a natural front-runner.

However, Hollie Doyle in the saddle, I hope can get him off to a good start, because the #9 looks perfect over this CD. I wished for less fast ground, but I feel, if he can break cleanly, against this opposition, the 5-year-old gelding should have too much class.

10pts win – Parisiac @ 11/2

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 5th June 2024

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8.25 Ripon: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

As competitive as this race looks, less than a handful should be serious contenders, and of those I reckon Herakles makes plenty of appeal to run – at least – to form.

His most recent Beverley run was eyecatching as he stormed to the front and led as part of a trio. He was travelling much the best, still ahead half a furlong from home and only late beaten by two horses from further back, to finish 3rd, eventually.

Herakles performed with credit, and mostly warranted an upgrade, in a majority of his six runs in 2024, since he came back from a break and wind operation.

Since then he finished four times in the money and ran respectably in two races of higher level. He’s down in 0-68 today, a level he should have the class to win.

Back in April the 4-year-old achieved a career-best speed rating on the All-Weather, and he followed up with two strong efforts on turf, at Pontefract in deep ground, and at Beverley latest, on a fast surface.

The decent ground today is certainly fine for him, even if it continues to dry out further. Even though still missing a W on turf, he’s got 4 placing from 7 starts over the minimum trip and the recent runs suggest it’s a matter of time before he wins.

These undulating tracks, like Ripon, seem to suit him best as well. He’s not quite ideally drawn, but #5 won’t give to many excuses I reckon, given his fine early speed will ensure he gets quickly close to the pace that may develop, as so often, toward the stands’ side.

10pts win – Herakles @ 6/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 4th June 2024

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8.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Eldeyaar can be a frustrating sort, only two wins on the sand, while seemingly catching the eye on multiple occasions throughout his career, this lad is difficult to catch. Saying that, today looks a prime chance to score.

The 5-year-old gelding ran a massive race last time out over this course and distance. He was caught wide thanks to his draw and moved forward in the fastest part of the race on the outside to get close to the leader.

He made a strong move from 3 furlongs out and only got caught late, deep inside the final furlong, by two horses staying on from off the pace.

The handicapper has let his grip go, and Eldeyaar can race off 51 today once again. Though, he drops down a bit in class, and should have too much class, so to speak, for his rivals in this 0-55 Handicap, with his form and wellbeing assured over a course and distance all his sand wins have come.

Top pilot Callum Rodriguez is in the saddle today, and a decent #5 draw should help him not getting caught wide this time. He’s usually quick into stride, so a good position chasing the pace should be where we see him settle and then hopefully run away with it in the home straight.

Quite a bit of money is on its way this morning. Of course I missed the boat, checking my trackers too late. Currently 7/2 looks a big enough price, still, though, in a poor contest.

10pts win – Eldeyaar @ 7/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 1st June 2024

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4.30 Epsom: Group 1 English Derby, 1m 4f

How much hype is left, and is it still real? Well, in any case I can’t have City of Troy today, even though, given his sky high reputation at Ballydoyle, 3/1 could be tremendous value come shortly after half past five.

For that he must be a different colt than the one that showed up at Newmarket. Well-respected racing analysts suggested there were good reason why COT failed to fire at Newmarket, and why Epsom’s Derby test should suit him so much better

That may well be true. But will the actual race be run to suit him in practice? The #1 draw and all the pace in the race won’t make it easy for COT to settle or find an easy route to a comfortable position early on. The dangers of him overracing early on are real, I feel.

I find Ancient Wisdom much more appealing, given he should improve for the Dante run, most likely will improve for the trip and seems drawn right around the likely pace.

He was somewhat unfortunate when having to delay his run from 3 furlongs out in the Dante, which may have added to the 6 lengths defeat, which looks more dramatic than it may have been otherweise.

Not sure whether he needs it much softer, though. His best performances come with plenty of juice in the ground. There is good to soft left, but it continues to dry. At 6/1 I feel he’s just about a fair price.

Derby Trial winner Ambiente Friendly couldn’t have been more impressive visually at Lingfield. He may have been really well suited to how the race developed, though, and it was a poor renewal of the race. Hence I’m intrigued whether he can confirm that seemingly impressive performance.

Glenagles siring a Derby winner would be quite something, too. He’s got some decent progeny that stayed this trip. But this is a different level than a Group 2 in France, where they crawl the first three quarters of the race.

Los Angeles has been touted as the “ideal Derby horse” by some experts. He certainly did well to win the Derby Trial at Leopardstown and given the yard he hails from, you’d expect nothing less than improvement today.

Lightly raced, clearly more to come and the trip probably fine, given he’s a son of Camelot, he’s a big player. However, I don’t like the fact that he’s yet to run any significant speed rating.

The one I’m most interest in from a price point of view is clearly Dancing Gemini. He’s got the right pedigree, with dam and damsire both having been Derby winners. He’d be a Classic winner if for a better ride, I believe, too.

It was an outrageous crime that Dylan Browne McMonagle wasted a superb draw and a fine start to the French Guineas. He was shuffled back and ultimately had to delay his run until 150m out, when Dancing Gemini stayed on strongly, and perhaps a couple more strides would have won – or if Dancing Gemini would have gone into the clear a tiny bit earlier.

The son of Camelot travelled nicely throughout, was fairly well settled and showed a tremendous attitude and bravery in the closing stages.

Obviously, moving up to the Derby trip is an unknown. But he’s got the pedigree, and perhaps the #15 draw means he can easily move forward, to track the pace, without wasting too much energy early on.

I also like his general experience: six career runs, two wins and he improved significantly with nearly each run.

He hinted no uncertain amount of talent when sprinting away at Newbury with a first maiden success in August, before romping home in the Scotsman Stakes.

Perhaps committing too early in the Futurity Stakes, Dancing Gemini ran still with plenty of credit in a hot renewal back in October last year. Having clearly trained on, he should be well capable of outrunning his price tag today.

10ps win – Dancing Gemini @ 11.5/1

…….

5.50 Epsom: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Can’t leave Mums Tipple unbacked today after another highly credible effort at Newmarket recently. His chances were severely compromised by the draw and it was impressive how he kept going to finish 4th.

Mums Tipple impressed prior to Newmarket in two of his three runs on the sand and suggested the way he finished those races that he retains plenty of talent.

He proved that at Newmarket, and before caught the eye at Kempton in no uncertain terms as well, when runner-up behind smart Mount Athos.

He travelled in rear and wasn’t advantaged by a slow pace, being poorly positioned, compared to the winner, who enjoyed an easy race from the front. Mums Tipple made eyecatching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest as well to be denied by a head in the end.

He pulled too hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior at Wolverhampton but was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held on his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield.

He’s not the most prolific winner these days, but off a mark of 96 given he was competitive off marks in the 100s not too long ago.

The 6 furlongs trip will suit – his career-best performances have come over this trip and and any softish patches in the ground won’t be an issue, neither any further drying.

Ideally he would be drawn a little bit lower today, I reckon, given that’s where the pace will most likely develop. It’s a risk that he may end up running on well as happened at Newmarket, but never gets a chance to be in the race for real.

10pts win – Mums Tipple @ 11/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 31st May 2024

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6.30 Down Royal: Handicap, 7f

Shoot To Kill could be well placed to get back to winning ways in this, undoubtedly, competitive Handicap. His mark comes down to a dangerous 75 rating, and he’s got the ideal low draw to ensure a prominent racing position at this track.

He ran quite well since joining the McGuinness yard in Ireland – all five runs, so far, were better than the bare form would suggest, in my view. Certainly his first two runs for the new yard at Dundalk caught my eye.

A poor start at Lingfield buried his chances on AW Champions Day, and his recent 6th in a hot Handicap on softer than ideal ground, behind a well-handicapped winner, was a strong effort as well, suggesting he’s certainly in excellent form.

A slight drop in class will help, as his 75 rating allows him to race in this easier grade now. Usually one who’s up with the pace, the #1 draw is a positive, as he can – unless a bad starts – move forward and track the pace closely.

Seven furlongs, decent ground should suit him really well. A winner from 6 furlongs to a mile, all his turf wins came on decent ground.

The yard has a bad spell right now and had only 2 winners on turf this year. That’s a real concern. But at the given prices, with seemingly a lot in Shoot To Kill’s favour, it’s worth the risk.

10pts win – Shoot To Kill @ 10/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 28th May 2024

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3.45 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

Ten Furlongs, fast ground, an easier grade, blinkers back on: this looks an ideal opportunity for Night Bear to score again.

He ran well over the last number of weeks, either third or fourth in his last four starts. He was eye-catching at Lingfield two back, and also the way he showed an excellent attitude when under pressure last time at Kempton.

I feel Night Bear is a better horse over 10f, in fact three of his four career wins come over that trip and all came on fast ground. He’s usually up with the pace, not a negative at Brighton on fast ground and he should enjoy the uphill finish today.

There is plenty of competition for the pace, but that may ensure this is going to be an honest race and I feel this will help him more than anything.

The money is coming this morning and the sexy prices are certainly gone. But I’m happy to enough to back him at what’s left there, as this looks a golden opportunity for Night Bear.

10pts win – Night Bear @ 9/2

…….

7.10 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Beauld As Brass seriously caught the eye last time at Brighton coming off a near year-long break. The potential bounce factor may be an issue, but he may strip fitter today at the same time as it seemed tiredness, possibly not being fully tuned up on the day, that saw him fall back to 4th, eventually.

He burned through the first half of the race, setting a hot pace as part of a duo and then looked a bit awkward in the finish at Brighton. I reckon he could come on for the run, and if he does will have a big chance today.

6 furlongs on the sand are fine. He’s been eased another pound, 3lb above his last winning mark. However, back then he also achieved a career-best 63 speed rating.

He’s got form on the All-Weather and should be suited by Lingfield today, given his usual positive racing style. He’s drawn right beside Lilkian, who surely will move forward, and may push the pace with Agostino, who has to cross over from his wide #10 draw, though.

That may shape like an ideal scenario, as Beauld As Brass can track in touching distance and pounce in the home straight. There may not be too much else get involved here, I feel, with the rest possibly too far back at that point.

Rob Havlin has been booked, which I take as a positive. And the yard also seems to hit some form of late.

10pts win – Beauld As Brass @ 7/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 27th May 2024

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That was a disappointing Sunday, especially as it was clear after two furlongs that both Elegant Man and Azada will struggle to make any impact in their respective races.

Elegant Man never looked happy on the gras. Whether it was just rain that went into the ground, or the surface itself, who knows. Azada was way too keen to have any chance of winning a competitive 1000 Guineas.

It was only her second career run, back off a break; she’ll learn and remains of interest, given she did travel well for quite a long time.

……..

3.45 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

The short priced favourite Hover on The Wind looks opposable given the much softer ground conditions today, albeit he acts on soft, his best performances came on decent ground, or at least, no less than good to soft in places.

A new career-best is required too. Not impossible, but it’s difficult to see where there’s any value in the price, with all possible improvement very much factored in.

At a much bigger price I’m quite keen on Parisiac, who caught my eye in his most recent run, back in March at Doncaster. That was a hot class 3 contest, so he takes a big drop in class today.

He was not up to the task against much classier opposition back then, but showed a nice attitude, not giving in, even when beaten, after pushing a hot pace early on.

Down to his last winning mark now, Parisiac should be ready for a big run. In his last two runs in 2023, he achieved 71 and 75 speed ratings, and if he can get back to that level of form he must rate a big chance today.

The ground is certainly in his favour, as two of his three career-bests on speed ratings have been achieved in the mud. The 5lb claim of Tommie Jakes is an added bonus today, especially as the apprentice is 3-1-1 when on board.

10pts win – Parisiac @ 8/1

……..

4.35 Redcar: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

This looks an open race and I’ll take a chance on Stressfree, who will enjoy the soft ground and ran much better in all three starts this, including when well beaten the last two times.

On his seasonal reappearance he was an excellent runner-up behind Qitaal, who enjoyed the run of the race and was seriously well-handicapped on that day. I felt that performance warranted an upgrade.

Stressfree appeared to have disappointed the next two times. Though, from off the pace, it was always going to be a struggle at Ripon, and he made some decent progress while not enjoying the clearest of passages, with the winner in the different world, anyway.

The ground was never to suit when last seen at York. Nonetheless, once again, he travelled well enough and made some good progress before running out of steam and possibly being saved for another day.

Not sure he’s up to this class today, but off 85, with the visor on for the first time, and a good draw close to the pace, he could get an ideal race, on the ground he loves.

10pts win – Stressfree @ 12/1