Albeseeingyer caught the eye last time at Beverley on her seasonal reappearance. She was keen to get on with things early on, before falling a little back to chase the pace in third, travelling powerfully into the home straight.
She faded in the final furlong, but was probably entitled to so, given a combination of “needed the run”, half a furlong too far in soft ground and the early exertions.
The race should put her right and she can race off the same mark today. Progressive the last two season, she may not have reached her ceiling. This looks a winnable contest as well.
She loves the 7 furlongs trip, is a course and distance winner and acts on this type of ground as well. I hope they ride her with positive tactics today in a race that lacks a clear pace setter possibly. She can do that and could be hard to beat in that case.
10pts win – Albeseeingyer @ 4/1
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5.40 Doncaster: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Showboated looks absolutely primed to win one of these low-grade sprint handicaps and could have found an ideal opportunity, for once. He threatened a couple of times this year but today could be his day.
He caught the eye in all four starts this year, for various reasons. Especially his two most recent performances gave me finally the impression he’s more than ready to win.
At Ayr he bumped into a seriously well-handicapped winner after chasing the pace without cover for most of the race and he showed a great attitude to battle hard to the line, only late denied a first career win.
He was certainly unfortunate last time at Redcar. He had to settle off the pace, given the race developed all on the far side, but he travelled strongly in the closing stages, just to be denied for space at a crucial stage. He finished well, but a clear passage a bit earlier and he’ll get much closer.
Having a strong jockey in the saddle should help too. He needs a bit of pushing and it can’t be a coincidence that Ayr was his career-best performance, also on speed ratings, when Conor Beasley was in the saddle.
Faye McManoman is a solid, no question, but Rowan Scott is an upgrade, strengths wise, in my unqualified view.
My concern is a tactical one. I hope they don’t settle too far off the pace, and instead move forward, to chase it, like at Ayr. Otherwise, he could easily find himself in a pocket once again where he gets out too late.
10pts win – Showboated @ 4/1
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5.45 Thirsk: Class 2 Handicap, 5f
This is super competitive and probably I shouldn’t get involved, but I can’t leave Jer Batt unbacked at a big price with conditions bordering on perfect for the progressive gelding today.
I loves hi comeback run last month at Doncaster. He travelled strongly as part of a duo leading the field and only got tired in the final furlong to fade back for 4th.
He should improve for the run under his belt and comes here as a still somewhat unexposed sort. He improved nicely last season, and his form when soft appears in the going description is strong, since he moved to the UK.
An impressive winner at Musselburgh on good to soft, his subsequent Chester 2nd was an epic performance -not missed by the handicapper, mind.
One can forgive him the poor showing at Ascot on fast ground when last seen in 2023. He had a long break, and with that in mind his Doncaster performance is worthy of an upgrade.
Thirsk ground is currently good to soft and should stay that way with showers on their way. Any more rain will be better for Jer Batt, of course.
“Mr Professor off 92 could be dangerous. He’ll love this ground and the likely fast pace. He’s one of the bigger prices that Intrigues me.”
It’s what I wrote in my Lincoln preview and still didn’t back him, as Mr Professor ran away with the Lincoln at Doncaster.
My selection Blues Emperor was up with the pace but wasn’t advantaged by the direction of the wind, I think. He finished down the field. Think he remains one to keep any eye on.
I can live with it. It was a big price, I’d back him again at those odds, no doubt. I’m more annoyed with myself with those two seriously poor Friday selections. Anyway, move on, and let’s find a winner today….
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3.40 Doncaster: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f
Intriguing contest because there is very little obvious pace in this race and because the betting is doing some funny things throughout this morning.
Last years winner of this very same race, Bucephalus, is one who can track a pace, and comes here in good form, off only 5lb higher than for that comfortable win twelve months ago.
Despite a prominent mentioning from Hugh Taylor, I don’t like him from a speed rating perspective and I am happy to go against him.
I feel those close to the top of the market are nothing more than fairly priced. Stressfree is unexposed and loves this ground and trip. He could be well placed, but has to prove he can do it in this class. Speed ratings leave a lot to be desired, for now.
Ensued ran well on the All-Weather since his return from Hong Kong. His speed rating suggest he’s normally not up to this class and an 80 mark is stiff enough.
The “x-factor” in this race clearly is Qitaal. He was badly on the drift this morning, but has been backed in again. Hence I jumped on board because he’s possibly the only runner in the field truly comfortable to lead.
The 5-year-old is also talented, seriously lightly raced for his age, and on a dangerous 77 handicap mark IF healthy.
He did well for Mark Johnston as a juvenile and fetched £220k at the horses in training sale back then. Things didn’t work out in Ireland where was seen only once in Listed class for Ken Condon.
Gelded since then, not seen ever since, now back with the Johnston’s in their ownership as well, it’s intriguing to see what Qitaal can do. It’s not unusual for Johnston horses setting the pace – no better man on board today than Joe Fanning too.
I’m sure they revert to front-running tactics as he did when landing a decent maiden at Nottingham, back in October 2021.
He has shown to handle soft ground as a 2-year-old. If ready to go, and the money suggests he is, I think there is every chance he’s way too well-handicapped in this field, especially if allowed a soft lead.
There’s every chance he’s never going to be horse he promised to be years ago, also. I’ll take the gamble today, given this race looks so open, especially at the price (seems like loads of money coming quickly, not sure how long the 6-7s hold) where the pace could be seriously muddy, this feels like a no-brainer to me.
The addition of Chazzesmee adds significant intrigue to the race. He won the Irish Lincoln in brilliant style on Monday, and looked like a horse with a bit in hand.
He confirmed the promise from last season, especially when last seen back in July in a hot Premier Handicap at the Curragh where he was arguably unlucky not to get closer to the eventual winner, or in fact even win.
A 5lb penalty looks generous, given once the official handicapper takes his chance to reassess, it should be quite a bit more than that for this ever improving gelding.
He looks drawn possibly quite well – certainly more favourable, I believe, than current favourite Liberty Lane. The lower toward the middle numbers may well be favoured according how I read the pace map feel this race could develop from a pace perspective.
Chazzesmee may well be towed into the finish where he will enjoy the likely fast pace and showcase his ability to change gear even on this deeper groun.
The thing that puts me off him, beside the price that’s too short for me in such a competitive race, is the fact that he’s always enjoyed frequent breaks between his races. Back to back races in such short space of time is unchartered territory. Not a risk worth taking at 4/1 in my mind.
I quite like Liberty Lane. An unexposed but progressive handicapper. He could definitely improve for having been gelded. One can forgive the final run in 2023. Before that he achieved a career-best landing a good Doncaster Handicap, including a strong 92 speed rating.
At 9/2 one can make an argument that he’s even a fair price. But the draw is not ideal, I feel. Drawn in #20, he may not be ideally positioned in the closing stages or has to do a lot in the early stages to avoid getting trapped wide.
2022 winner Johan goes extremely well fresh. He won another valuable Handicap after a break last season, and is a key contender, although he must defy a 106 mark, which is not easy in such a competitive renewal of the Lincoln.
Mr Professor off 92 could be dangerous. He’ll love this ground and the likely fast pace. He’s one of the bigger prices that Intrigues me.
But the one I’m most interested in at what I feel appear quite generous prices around 20/1 on the exchanges, is for the Johnny Murtagh horse Blues Emperor.
Probably not the most talented individual in the field I think off 97 this improving gelding may have a bit more to offer, though.
He improved with nearly every run in 2023 – the only truly poor showing came in his final outing in 2023, at the end of a tough campaign, which was also Listed race at quirky Listowel, and quite odd the way it panned out.
Prior to that he finished a neck beaten runner-up in the Irish Cambridgeshire, ran with plenty of credit in a hot Galway Handicap, won on Irish Derby Day a competitive Premier Handicap and defied top-weight at Naas.
The 5-year-old gelding clearly acts on soft ground. He stays a mile. Although, the combination of a fast pace and deep ground will stretch his stamina to the limit.
On the other hand, his #10 draw offers every opportunity to be in a good spot, closer to the front of the pack. I suspect it might be difficult to come from off the pace here. He likes to lead but has shown that he can track a pace closely as well.
In any case Blues Emperor is a genuine horse with a great attitude. He’ll put his head down and will run his race more likely than not. That may or may not be good enough. But you’d think Johnny Murtagh will have the horse ready to go, given Blues Emperor also performed well as a fresh horse in the past.
After another disappointing Saturday on the betting front I went for a little walk to the Curragh around the Derby course.
A lovely evening once the rain subsided with some beautiful light to illuminate the Curragh.
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3.50 Doncaster: Class 2 Handicap, 5f
Burning Cash looks seriously well weighted to go close, but I can’t move past Alligator Alley who was such a huge eyecatcher at Epsom last time out in the infamous Dash.
He was first-time visored and seemed to respond a bit too keenly to the new headgear as he forced his gate open, which set a chain of events in motion.
As for his own race, he was keen early on jumped the grass path over 4 furlongs out, bumped a rival and became briefly unbalanced moments, was subsequently short of room with the rider taking a pull.
Nonetheless, he ran home in eye catching fashion, hard on the bridle and still managed to finish strongly in the final furlong.
The handicapper dropped him another 2lb, which makes him a proper danger off 94 here, especially if he could start a bit sharper with visor.
Two runs back at York off 4lb higher was also quite a strong run; I thought, confirming the excellent form the gelding is in at the moment. He should get a clear run on the outside of the field here, so hopefully no excuses this time.
10pts win – Alligator Alley @ 4/1
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4.00 Salisbury: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
I’m prepared to forgive Michaels Choice his latest poor showing at Lingfield. Things didn’t look right there right from the start.
However, judged on his comeback run over his preferred course and distance – 6f at Salisbury – he should have a big chance here. He’ 3-2-1 over this CD, and looked as good as ever in May when the race developed against him.
That day he had the widest draw to overcome which was a significant enough disadvantage as he raced widest without cover as a consequence. Nonetheless, he made good progress from over 2f out on the outside of the field, to challenge, before he tired late.
A strong run on his seasonal reappearance which achieved a 66 speed rating as well. Clearly, based on that, he’s as good as ever.
Michaels Choice won off 70 multiple times in the past and ran to 70 speed rating twice last year, including when winning over this CD last July.
10pts win – Michaels Choice @ 7/2
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3.05 Chantilly: Prix de Diane, 1m 2.5f
A competitive renewal but I want to give Never Ending Story another chance after her disappointing showing the in the French Guineas, where she seemed never really in it after receiving an early bump by a rival.
Moving up in trip should suit this daughter of Athena, though, and ever since she won the 1000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown back in April I felt she is a high-class filly, a Group 1 winner in the making.
That day she was gutsy, stayed on strongly and proved that she has progressed after a somewhat underwhelming juvenile campaign.
She looked stronger than ever, and ran a solid 90 speed rating, as the form has ben given a significant boost in the meantime by the second and third.
I imagine she’s even better beyond a mile in any case, and everything she’s done so far is positive to sign for what’s still to come.
That she was able to win a good race over 7 furlongs, means she has the speed. Now let’s bring in some stamina and she’s seriously underestimated today, especially from a good draw.
After a small break on a sunny island in the Atlantic Ocean I’m (nearly) back for the start of the flat season!
March was finally a green month again, having produced a 110pts profit; 4 winners and seven placed selections…. something positive at the end of a tough winter on the sand.
Thankfully, the grind of the All-Weather is over (well, probably not really, for another couple of weeks) and the grind of the flat beings here once again.
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3.00 Doncaster: Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes, 6f
Intriguing contest. A handful could have a proper go in this listed contest, but the ground should be key to narrow down the real contenders.
Current favourite Asjad definitely stays the trip and beyond in deep ground as shown in his last three fine runs in autumn 2022, including over this course and distance. He goes well fresh, but has failed to convince on speed ratings in 12 career runs so far.
El Caballo remains a sprinter with plenty of upside. If he’s ready from a long lay-off he should be the one to beat. A Grade 2 winner last May at Haydock, he wasn’t seen since Royal Ascot.
That’s a question mark, as well as the unknown whether he can show the same level of ability to show on deep ground.
Fast Response should enjoy the soft ground as he proved winning a Listed contest over this course and distance when last seen in November. Again he’s one who looks up against it on speed ratings – if the main principles fire.
Commanche Falls is pretty ground independent. He’s got a fine record fresh, and looks a key player if in the same form as last season; however, he’s yet to win outside Handicap company and his very best came on no less than good to soft.
Ehraz remains progressive and has been gelded during is off-season. He’d be seriously interesting on better ground. In soft conditions he may struggle, though, today.
Having said that, King’s Lynn is the one I’m siding with at given prices. He looks clearly overpriced, if fit on his seasonal reappearance.
The fact he ran quite well coming off a break in the past is promising. He’s the finished article by now, so if he can run to last seasons form, he should have a major say in the outcome of this race.
This is easier than his final assignment in 2022, when well beaten in the Champions Sprint. He competed predominantly in hot water last year, but was highly competitive in lesser grades, including when winning the Grade 2 Temple Stakes.
He runs consistently to a good level on speed ratings; his career-best effort over this Doncaster course and distance that came in the Listed Wentworth Stakes in November 2021 makes him a prime contender today, in theory.
Possibly the minimum trip is his optimum, but he obviously stays 6 furlongs, no bother, and loves soft ground. With that in mind he seems seriously overpriced at current exchange prices (8s readily available) although the scenario of a weak pace would count against him, truth told.
It pays off to be have a low draw in this ground over this trip at Doncaster. Two that have the draw and are potentially handicapped to land this big handicap have caught my eye:
The money clearly is coming for Master Zoffany. One can see why: he travelled strongly when last seen at York earlier this month, then over a mile, before fading in the closing stages.
The drop to 7 furlongs will suit. He’s a distance winner and goes well in softish conditions. Currently one pound above his last winning mark, but 2lb lower than his best speed rating, he looks in with a clear opportunity to go really well after a much lighter campaign than many others in this field, perhaps with freshness the bonus to push him over the line.
At a bigger price, one I don’t want to leave out, though, is Mystery Fox. He was an impressive winner at Goodwood over a mile, quickening in fine style and put the race to bed from two furlongs out. He improved nicely for the application of cheekpieces.
A drop to 7 furlongs won’t be an issue, especially in properly soft conditions. He has to overcome a career highest mark, but if he can continue to progress with the new headgear, there is every chance he can defy a mark off 88 today.
Emperor Caradoc didn’t quite see out the mile at Pontefract recently, particularly after showing signs of keenness early on. However, his impressive Carlisle win is still relatively fresh in mind.
He was really gutsy to win from the widest draw that day, and kicked in well in the homes straight, finding the most in the final furlong.
He responded well to a gelding operation in spring and his lightly races profile offers potential for further progress, now down to 7 furlongs again with plenty of give in the ground. A mark off 77 does look not overly harsh.
Floral Splendour looked to be have a bit of talent when she won in impressive style on debut at Haydock back in July. She was found out in Listed class subsequently, though didn’t help herself with a slow start.
She was far from disgraced at Wolverhampton the next time, and caught the eye on her first start for the Jardine at Musselburgh lately. Nothing went her way that day, from start to finish.
She is better than that. 7 furlongs and soft ground suit. A mark off 74 and this easier grade make her really dangerous if she gets a clear run.
Not much pace is expected here, which should play into the hands of Thank The Lord, who can go forward; in fact I would expect him to get it pretty easy from the front, given he also has a #1 draw to attack the race from.
He won nicely at Salisbury going wire to wire in July. afterwards looked out of sorts at Wolverhampton, before fading over 6 furlongs at Yarmouth and earlier this month here at Chelmsford.
That performance was a big one in my view. He had the widest draw, was a little bit sluggish away, made up ground rapidly soon after, and found plenty under pressure until tiring in the final furlong.
New London is the right favourite. I’ve followed his season with joy, given he was one of my 5 To Follow for the season as well. He’s gone from strengths to strengths and will have a good chance to win this Classic.
This isn’t a vintage renewal and New London has got the strongest form in the book, plus has beaten some of todays rivals already – therefore it’s easy to see why he is clear at the top of the betting.
It’s hard to argue that his Gordon Stakes victory is a key piece of form that makes him the one to beat today.
Yet, I have some reservations over the combination of trip and ground. New London has got a fair chance to stay, though stamina isn’t a certainty over the Leger trip.
More so, his best performances came on fast ground. While It won’t be bottomless today, there is going to be significant give in ground, nonetheless. The price suggests there are zero worries about either parameter. I have concerns and with that in mind have to oppose him at this short price.
My clear number two on the shortlist is Hoo Ya Mal. A surprise runner-up in the Derby, he was subsequently third behind New London in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood.
On the surface he was fair and square beaten that day. Nonetheless, in my view he is much more closly matched with the favourite than the final result of that race and the price difference in the betting today suggest.
In the Gordon Stakes Hoo Ya Mal seriously caught my eye, in fact. He improved in fine style from five furlongs out; he made rapid progress in the home straight and hit the front two furlongs from home. Ultimately, he paid the price in the closing stages for this huge but inefficient effort.
Plenty has been made of Hoo Ya Mal’s subsequent and most recent victory in the March Stakes. It was a workmanlike performance, rather than a fleshy effort against inferior rivals workmanlike style. But he showed enough to enhance his reputation in my book: he produced a solid change of gear and proved his stamina.
It was a lovely Leger prep, I feel.. Everything points to a big run today. The trip will suit. The ground is unlikely to pose an issue. Different ground conditions and the additional distance could easily see Hoo Ya Mal turn the table with New London.
He’s also closely matched on topspeed with the Godolphin horse: 107 for Hoo Ya Mal’s Derby run; 108 for new London’s victory at Goodwood.
I struggle to make a serious case for other horses in the race. The “hype horse” Haskoy has to prove her class significantly up in class. Eldar Eldarov could improve back over this sort of trip. But I don’t rate him a better chance than Hoo Ya Mal.
Emily Dickinson looks a huge price, and has a solid each-way chance I feel. She stays the trip, has the pedigree and clearly talent; with ease in the ground she may find a bit of improvement, and that would make her dangerous.
10pts win – Hoo Ya Mal @ 8.6
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1.15 Curragh: Premier Handicap, 6f
Top-weight Power Under must carry a huge weight in this race. The jury is out whether he’s truly as good as his current 110 Official Rating. However, with soft ground sure to suit, I believe in these type of conditions there’s every chance he is that good, and perhaps a few pound better, in fact.
It has to be, if he should go close today. In saying that, if that turns out to be a correct assessment he’ll be a huge runner in this Premier Handicap.
The 4-year-old caught my eye when last seen over this course and distance. He finished third that day but fared best of those up with the pace. The form looks strong, with the winner holding his own in Group races subsequently, and the runner-up winning a Handicap off a big weight.
One can discount his penultimate run in Group 2 class when he welt, but he was strong in the finish landing a Cork Listed sprint. he seems to do well off breaks, so not having run since June isn’t a concern.
Power Under Me has yet to run to a noteworthy topspeed rating. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt though. Today he’s got a super chance: a group horse in a Handicap….
10pts win – Power Under Me @ 10/1
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2.25 Curragh: Group 1 Flying Five, 5f
As intriguing as this contest is, especially with Highfield Princess and her wonderful success story this season, the market overestimates her chances today, I feel.
She may well struggle after all her recent exertions on the deep ground likely encountered up the Curragh straight. She handles the going, no doubt, but I firmly believe the rain does suit A Case Of You much more.
Especially over the minimum trip, as A Case Of You holds the strongest piece of form in these conditions – his Longchamp victory from last October in heavy going, awarded a 114 topspeed rating, gives him an outstanding chance if he can be in the same form today.
He was an excellent runner-up in the Flying Five 12 months ago, before landing the Prix de l’Abbaye in dramatic fashion. He proved that wasn’t a fluke when winning the Al Quoz sprint at Meydan earlier this year.
Since then two lesser performances raise a few question marks. But with conditions sure to suit today, a fresh A Case Of You should be hard to beat.
Thrave shaped really well a number of times ever since being rather unlucky at Beverley in May. He ran well on three subsequent occasions, and his most recent run at this track over the shorter 7 furlongs suggested he’s ready to win.
That day he found himself in a tight spot and squeezed out soon after the start, then relegated to the rear of the field. He weaved his way through as the only one truly coming from off the pace, and finished much the strongest.
He’s clearly well capable of winning off 65 over a mile, particularly in this slightly easier race. He goes really well over this course and distance, having gone close off 3lb higher last September, running to topspeed 67 too then.
10pts win – Thrave @ 9/1
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3.55 Doncaster: 1m 6.5f
Interesting little race that should be a solid stamina test given the pace chart. I think that will really suit handicap debutant Havaila who ran really well earlier this month in a strong maiden over 12 furlongs.
He was quite green in his first two career runs but showed more professionalism at Salisbury. He’s not one who does things quickly, though. Nonetheless he stuck to the task nicely behind two solid horses in first and second.
He ran to topspeed 75 that day, so his opening mark of 76 provides a good opportunity if he can progress for experience and distance.
The step up to this new trip will surely suit. The visuals are backed up by the pedigree as he’s out of Waila who was a smart mare over 12-14 furlongs.
10pts win – Havaila @ 3/1
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8.20 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
By Your Side could still be well handicapped after recent turf exploits now back on the All-Weather, but the drop to 7 furlongs is a concern. Hence a proper alternative is Key Look who shaped the last time at Catterick like a winner in the making.
That day Key Look was one of the slower starters, settled in rear, travelled pretty okay, but had still only one rival behind turning for home.
She made excellent progress on the inside in the home straight until short of room about 1.5 furlongs from home. As a consequence she lost momentum, had to regain full effort, which she didn’t quite manage, but also wasn’t ask to do so. Yet finished nicely under hands and heels giving impression there was more left in the tank.
She ran well a number of times in defeat in recent weeks. Now a pound below her last winning mark she makes plenty of appeal, especially as her last victory came over the Newcastle CD. Having a solid 5lb claimer in the saddle is an added bonus.
On paper this years Oaks looks not a brilliant renewal, albeit a wide open one, with plenty of potential improvers for the Oaks distance. With that in mind I struggle to warm to short-priced favourite Emily Upjohn.
I understand why she’s well fancied today. Her Musidora victory was impressive. As a daughter of Sea The Stars she appears more than likely to stay the trip and it’s equally reasonable to assume she can improve for her fourth career run.
But she has to. The York performance was only worth a 95 topspeed rating. Solid but doesn’t scream 13/8 favourite. She may well take this crucial next step and can progress to the level the market generally assumes she’ll be capable of running to.
At the same time this can be said about a number of other fillies in this field full of likely improvers. Whether that’s Cheshire Oaks winner Thoughts Of June (quite appropriately named), stable mate Tuesday – a full-sister to 2016 Oaks heroine Minding, or Trial Stakes winner Nashwa. I could make a case for half the field.
But the two fillies that caught my eye more than anybody else – and I can’t split them – are Concert Hall and the only Godolphin entry With The Moonlight.
It’s no surprise that a full-sister to previous Oaks winner Was should feature highly on any short-list. Hence I am seriously surprised to see Concert Hall available at incredibly generous odds – I feel.
I was interested in her for the Irish 2000 Guineas, but it turned out the drop in trip didn’t really suit her. She didn’t posses the speed needed and got badly outpaced from over three furlongs out. But, crucially, she ran on strongly to finish 3rd eventually.
Perhaps it wasn’t the deepest Guineas field, nonetheless, the fact she was able to finish so strongly over an inadequate trip is noteworthy. Aiden O’Brien mentioned beforehand the filly thrives on racing and the Curragh outing would be a stepping stone towards Epsom.
In that light it’s even more significant that she won on her seasonal reappearance at Navan in the Listed Salsabil Stakes – form that looks rock solid. She gave the impression that she wouldn’t mind an additional couple of furlongs that day.
Therefore the Oaks trip looks a good match. Whether she handles the track is a different matter. She clearly has Oaks written all over and with a solid draw should be up there when it matters in my view.
With The Moonlight isn’t quite as clear-cut if it comes to stamina for the Oaks distance. Her pedigree points more towards middle-distance 10 furlongs. And yet, the way she finished at Newmarket was so impressive, giving the impression she could stretch out to 12 furlongs. And certainly giving the impression of a seriously talented filly.
I loved everything about that performance. It’s noteworthy also for the fact because that day she achieved the fasted topspeed rating on offer in the Oaks field.
Whether she can translate this speed to Epsom is the key question. As a full-sister to Group 1 winning Dream Castle she will certainly have the class. Her striding patterns, as far as available to me, give the indication that she has a fair chance to see out the trip, though.
Perhaps she will be ridden with a little bit more restraint today than at Newmarket. If she settles well, it should give William Buick plenty of options how to ride the race, given she possesses a lot of cruising speed, that is crucial at Epsom in my view.
Both fillies, With The Moonlight and Concert Hall appear seriously overpriced in the market in my book.
5pts win – With the Moonlight @ 14/1 5pts win – Concert Hall @ 13.5/1
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7.16 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
This looks like the ideal race I had in mind for Golden Apollo to get his head in front again. Since his eye catching run at Thirsk he ran another fine race at York in a big handicap over 7 furlongs where he got badly hampered.
He drops down to 6 furlongs, is three pounds lower in the mark than at Thirsk and runs in a wide open class 4 contest. The favourite may well be on the up and could be able to defy his increased mark – Golden Apollo is at this stage of his career vulnerable to any unexposed improving sort.
But at the same time he’s dangerously well handicapped in my view, given his wellbeing is confirmed.
The golden years are obviously behind the 8-year-old but he still performed of marks in the 80s last year and also ran to topspeed 84 when runner-up in a hot Redcar Handicap.
He’s been a shade unlucky a number times too in the meantime, including the last two; as a results his mark is reduced all the time. This looks an ideal opportunity to strike.
10pts win – Golden Apollo @ 9/1
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7.37 Goodwood: Class 3 Handicap, 6f
I was very taken with Kimngrace the last time at Sandown when she was seriously unlucky over the minimum trip. Today she steps up to 6 furlongs, which should be the perfect distance for this exciting and potentially well handicapped filly.
At Sandown after a steadied start she settled in rear of the field. She made some smooth progress from over three furlongs out but was stuck behind a bunch of horses and a clear passage denied until very late. She finished well when a bit of racing room opened up in the closing stages.
The winner made all from the front, the runner-up and third raced close to the pace too. Given these circumstances this was a big run on what was Kimngrace’s seasonal reappearance. The form is seriously strong as well.
She looks a filly open to considerable improvement, possibly more so now stepping up to 6 furlongs again. When last seen in 2021 she won a Maiden race at Haydock over 6f and looked at home over the trip. That particular form worked out well with the runner-up having ran a huge race in the Fred Darling Stakes this season.
10pts win – Kimngrace @ 10/3
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7.51 Doncaster: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f
Gibside has caught the eye a number of times this year. He’s certainly a tricky sort, can be temperamental, gets upset in the stall and looks a horse doing things in his own time.
There was good money all day for him last time out at Ripon when he stepped up to 12 furlongs for the first time – a trip that he should appreciate.
He ran really well over shorter 10 furlongs on two occasions at Beverley previously, when things didn’t go his way and he ran better than the bare result suggested.
The same can be said about this most recent Ripon run. Of course at some point you’re not unlucky but it’s more what you truly are. Nonetheless, I feel Gibside deserves another chance.
He was unruly in the starting gate, slowly away, trailed the field and raced generally highly inefficient with a move at the halfway stage costing vital energy and another huge move turning for home from 4 furlongs out on the wide outside.
He paid for it in the final three furlongs, yet finished in 3rd eventually. Coming from so far back was a huge disadvantage. The runner-up led the field, the winner raced in midfield.
I feel a more conventional, flat track like Doncaster will suit this big, rangy gelding much more than Beverley, or even Ripon. No excuses today. I must stress though he is on the drift this morning – at the same time it ensures a seriously good price, if he is in it to win it today.
10pts win – Gibside @ 6.8/1
……….
Added after initial post – 12.30:
3.10 Group 1 Coronation Cup, 1m 4f
High Definition has drifted into a serious price to the point I feel he’s so far overpriced I have to add him as a bet today. By no means is he’s a 11/2+ shot in this field.
No question that if on song Pyledriver is the one to beat. A consistent top-class horse, the defending champion which saw him achieve a career best here last year. He ran well at Meydan when last seen. If he’s close to the form he showed twelve months ago he’s probably hard to beat.
I can’t have Manobo around 2/1 at all. He is lightly raced and open to considerable improvement. On the other hand he’s clearly shown to need a trip to be seen to best effect. Dropping back to 1m 4f is a major question mark for me.
Hukum has only once in his career ran to a topspeed rating of 100. That dates back to 2020, or nine runs. It would need some of the others to misfire for him to win.
High Definition backs up quickly. That is my major concern. He has been a disappointing horse ever since showing so much promise as a juvenile. But the level of form he produced last time out at the Curragh in the Tattersalles Cup is right up there with the best of Pyledriver.
He got a superb ride that day, and clearly that has to be taken into account as a source of the improvement. Nonetheless, he made it a true test going from the front and was just beaten in the dying strides in a top-class field.
He ran to topspeed 108 at that day. I feel it’s a genuine performance. If he can show this level of form today he has a major chance.
At given prices he’s clearly overpriced with ground ad trip not really being a worry in my view.
A list of horses that caught my eye during the last seven days of racing. These individuals look ready to win a race sooner rather than later.
Surrey Territories 30/03/22 – 6.30 Kempton:
The pace slowed dramatically down soon after the start with the field bunching up and a bit of carnage behind the leading pack. Surrey Territories was at a major disadvantage in a position too far back. The winner and runner-up came from close- or up with the pace throughout the race.
Nothing got really involved from behind, the only one finishing strongly was Surrey Territories, thundering down on the outside of the field to claim a courageous 3rd place in the end.
If one is prepared to draw a line through an uncharacteristically poor penultimate run, then Surrey Territories has produced four strong performances this year. His 4th place finish at Wolverhampton in January over 7 furlongs may well be the strongest, with him finishing in impressive style and producing some fast sectionals. That piece of form looks rock solid having been franked subsequently.
A negative aspect to keep in mind is Surrey Territories’s habit to break slowly. But his recent performances suggest to me a win is near. He’s clearly capable of winning off his current mark and has no problems to stay a mile. He’s only raced three times over this trip, so there is potentially some upside.
I would love to see a strong apprentice booked over the 1 mile trip. This would make Surrey Territories a standout chance wherever he goes next.
Artician 30/03/2022 – 7.30 Kempton:
He was unusually fast out of the gates, although soon settled off the pace in a solid run race. He travelled notably well into the home straight but was looking for racing room from 2 furlongs out behind a wall of horses, having to delay his challenge, together with the equally well travelling eventual winner, a 100 rated Listed winner.
Entering the final furlong the eventual winner got an opening to move straight through, whereas Artician had to switch, losing his momentum and having to regain his full effort.
This was a strong performance given the circumstances and opposition. Artician has produced a number of rock solid runs since switching yards and moving over to the UK. After an easy victory over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton on debut for trainer Simon Dow – albeit against inferior rivals – he was not good enough in a subsequent hot class 2 Handicap over the same CD. When dropped in class four weeks ago he finished a fine 3rd place at Kempton, though, which looks like a good piece of form.
Artician was a highly promising juvenile with placed efforts in the Marble Hill Stakes and Railway Stakes in Ireland. He didn’t quite fulfill that promise, however, now in Handicap company with a significantly lowered mark he seems ready to strike.
I am not fully sold on him over a mile, and envision ideal conditions to be a 7 furlongs handicap below class 2. He seems relatively ground independent on turf and clearly enjoys the All-Weather too.
Active Duty 29/03/22 – 4.35 Navan:
This son of the brilliant Almanzor saw plenty of support in the betting market, although, he was always likely to play second fiddle behind 109 rated and Group 1 placed odds-on favourite Stone Age.
The favourite won from the front giving the form a really solid look, while Active Duty settled well in rear for the majority of the race. Still trailing at the end of the field when turning for home, he soon started to make a big move on the outside once asked for serious effort. Despite showing signs of inexperience, he finished the race in impressive style under a hands and heels ride.
Active Duty was an expensive £260k yearling and at this early stage of his career promises to live up to this lofty price tag. He’s likely to be heavily odds-on wherever he goes next, but beyond that can be an exciting prospect for the season ahead. As an April foal it’s not unlikely to assume that he will improve significantly with time and experience this year.
I also would mention to keep an eye out for the 4th horse Fumata. He looked green and didn’t quite get a clear run in the home straight, but eventually stayed on well enough to suggest there is ability.
He’s related to winners and looks bound to improve once stepping up to 1m 4f – a distance he’s bred for.
Conversant 26/03/22 – 5.21 Curragh:
The seven-year old gelding was quickest out of the gate, using his 5 furlong speed. He joined an isolated small group of six horses on the stands’ side rail, travelling strongly on the bridle to the two furlong marker.
Perhaps he over raced in the early stages – his group was a couple of lengths ahead for the first half of the race as well. He didn’t find much once off the bridle approaching the uphill finish at the Curragh but still managed to finish 8th amongst the second group of finishers behind the first three home.
This was Conversant’s first run since last October after a productive 2021 season. He’s a pound lower rated than his last winning mark from last year when he managed to run twice to a 65 topspeed rating as well.
He can win off his current rating, perhaps a stiff 5 furlong finish like Navan, where he won twice already, with plenty of cut in the ground, will be an ideal scenario. He’s down to a fine mark, but any additional concession from the handicapper will be a huge bonus.
Cold Stare & Mokaatil 27/03/22 – 4.20 Doncaster:
This was an interesting race where a number of horses caught my eye, although these two are the ones to take out for me.
Cold Stare is the obvious eye-catcher as he was travelling sweetly throughout the race. However, trapped behind a wall of horses a gap wouldn’t open in time to get out. He finished easily on the bridle in 6th place in the end.
The 7-year old gelding ran much better on this seasonal reappearance than a 25/1 price tag suggested. Cold Stare has clearly retained all the ability he showed last season when he won twice and also finished 2nd on two occasions. He did so while achieving topspeed ratings of 88 and 91 and caught the eye multiple times.
It is fair to say he’s handicapped close enough to his best. But if he can drop a couple of pounds below a 90 mark again, ideally also moving down in class, he’ll be a big shout in a 6- or 7 furlongs handicap with cut in the ground. A good apprentice on board can only enhance his chances. It’s worth waiting for the right conditions to appear. The wait will be worth it. He’s one to keep any eye on over the next weeks in my book.
Mokaatil isn’t a desperately obvious one at first glance. But this was his first start since October and there was zero expectations for him to run well, judged by odds of 50/1. Even more so over a trip that is not quite his best.
He raced in midfield early on but drifted right to the back of field with three furlongs to go. Instead of flattening out and finishing down the field Mokaatil kept going right to the end for a solid 7th place finish.
In truth, Mokaatil never looked dangerous; yet I quite liked the fight and spirit he showed on a day that was never supposed to be his day anyway. This looked like an excellent pipe opener. This run confirms he’s clearly in good nick after a strong 2021 campaign where he won three times and ran to TS 85 and 80.
He’s already 2lb below his last winning mark but with some additional help from the handicapper, perhaps a return to a mark of 82 and dropped to the minimum trip, he’ll be a big chance, particularly on decent ground. Keep an eye on Mokaatil when these circumstances come together this season.
Desert Land 31/03/22 – 3.50 Lingfield:
First start since a course and distance success in December. He pulled like a train the first part of the race unable to settle in rear of the field. Most likely he ran his race there and then. Even though, jockey Pat Cosgrave never made any attempt to call for an effort while the race developed in front of him from three furlongs out and as a consequence Desert Land was left in no-man’s-land entering the home straight.
If one wants to see it in a positive light then Desert Land was rather tenderly handled in the closing stages and not needlessly knocked about in a finish he had little to gain. One could also have the viewpoint that insufficient attempt was made to obtain the best possible result with the early antics taken as an excuse.
In my view 1 mile is too far for Desert Land in any case. Despite the fact he won over course and distance. It wasn’t the first time he pulled really hard and he got rather lucky in the race he won as a slow early pace resulted in sprint finish playing to his speed – in fairness: as they tend to happen regularly at Lingfield. Regardless, the trip is far from his optimum. His best performances all come over shorter 6 furlongs. Perhaps a fast paced 7 furlongs is fine too these days, too.
Desert Land won of a 66 Handicap mark at Brighton last year over 6 furlongs, and achieved Tospeed ratings of 62 on turf and 68 on the All-Weather. With that in mind he’s down to an attractive mark already. But will be even more so if he drops another couple of pounds combined with moving down in distance. In that context I felt the run here was eye-catching. Because the gelding was clearly minded for a better day to come.
Ebtsama 31/03/22 – 4.10 Lingfield:
Handicap debut for this well bred filly. A £105k yearling and full sister to Group 2 placed Dark Rose, Ebtsama seemingly overcame the widest draw and sluggish start to the race. She travelled much the strongest entering the home straight, looking the likeliest winner. She was clear run denied until it was too late, though. Finally switched to the outside entering the final furlong she ran well to the line but the birds was flown at that point.
She shaped well on her seasonal reappearance over 7 furlongs at Southwell in February where she finished runner-up behind a good winner. I like to see her going up in trip again. Either 7f or a mile – both shouldn’t be a problem on pedigree.
Even though it’s unlikely she’ll hit the heights of her sister, a handicap mark of 75 probably underestimates her ability – that calculation is a simple one: given with a clear run Ebstama would have finished much closer in the Lingfield race, if not even won the race. With improvement likely to come with experience and moving up in the trip she should have a number of pounds in hand, at the very least.
Encouragement can also be taken from last year. As a juvenile Ebtsama showed some smart form in two starts: on debut only 4 lengths down behind the subsequent Lowther Stakes winner and runner-up behind a subsequent Group 3 winner.
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