All good things must come to an end: after a week of travelling it’s back to bread and butter today. The memories of York, Windsor, Goodwood and Epsom will last, though.
…..
8.00 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f
The pace looks potentially muddling in this small field. That makes it a tricky race to call and brings top-weight Compliant very much into the picture here.
The 4-year-old has to give weight away but loves the sand and this track. She may not stay 12 furlongs if run at a solid clip, but she may be able to be in the right position here and leverage her speed.
I’m intrigued by Page Three. She could be better than her current mark if the change of yards would help rectify some of her issues.
Mildyjama won well a highly competitive 10f race at this track when last seen. She was well placed, though. She may well be here once again, and that may negate the possibly negative of the new trip.
Even though a slow race may not suit her on paper, I hope this is the day to shine for Folk Star. I’m tracking the filly for a while and she didn’t prove quite as progressive as I hoped she could be this year.
In saying that, this trip will surely suit – on paper. However, Folk Star ran well, at the very least, a number of times this season over shorter trips as well. Most notably last time out over 11 furlongs here at Kempton, the race that Mildyjama won.
The run was a huge step in the right direction. She started well, travelled pretty well for most of the race in midfield, and showed a proper change of gear in the home straight, once she found a clear passage. She simply had too much to do from her position in the race.
Another day she wins it, I reckon. And with that in mind the filly proved she’s got speed as well. In this smaller field she won’t be too far off the pace, I hope, anyways. Off 63 with a good rider on board she will be competitive. Negative is the drift in the betting this morning.
Surprise Picture nearly sprang the surprise at Pontefract on Sunday. Nearly isn’t quite what puts bread on the table, though.
In contrast, Auld Toon Loon, never looked like winning but also bumped into seriously well-handicapped horse on the day.
……..
4.55 Brighton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
Media Guest is in sensational form and the question is only whether he can hold this level for one more race. This contest is for the taking and could be an ideal test.
Last time art Leicester he was impressive after an awkward start, as he tracked the pace keenly in the early stages, before moving forward to put everyone on the stretch from over three furlongs out.
It was a proper injection of pace right into the wind and without cover. Eventually he got tired and beaten for second by the favourite who was ridden with much more restraint and better cover.
He achieve a strong 64 speed rating which just about matched his current handicap mark, confirming the visual impression.
The gelding confirmed the impressive run from last month at Chelmsford as well, where he pushed the pace and was the winner on the line, only to be demoted to second afterwards.
He can ran off the same mark as he did at Leicester, only 1lb higher than at Chelmsford. On that front he’s clearly handicapped to go close and still has a few pounds in hand on his best, which he seems awfully close to at the moment.
7 furlongs is a stretch on soft ground most likely Decent ground will help and the pace scenario here, where enough is on to ensure that he doesn’t overrace early on should help.
It’s a stiff finish, but on pedigree the trip is no issue, it’s only his third start beyond 6 furlongs, so some natural improvement isn’t out of the question.
Pogo was quite disappointing on Saturday. He burnt off too much energy way too early. Perhaps I should have read the pace chart more intently, and would have noticed there was a danger for pressure, which was there, and not ideal at a track such Newbury for a horse like Pogo.
On the other hand, it’s all probabilities, and at the price, after much deliberation, I’d have backed him again.
……
5.15 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 10f
Progressive Auld Toon Loon could have found an ideal opportunity to get a third win this season. The way this Handicaps pans out could ensure it falls right into his lap.
Pace is going to be key here. Some of those theoretically more dangerous rivals would want a solid gallop. While ATL is one of the few horses here who is probably rather comfortable of having anything to do with the pace, in the first place.
Over this sort of trip his record in Handicaps reads 2-1-1-2 this summer and he nearly would have gone back to back two weeks ago Haydock, proving his excellent form.
That day he moved forward and lead as part of a duo before he grabbed the contested lead by the neck halfway through and travelled seriously well into the home straight with the rest of the field on the stretch over 3f out.
Eventually he paid for the effort on heavy ground and the strong winner came for him, was ridden with a bit more restraint and overtook him.
Auld Toon Loon looks still progressing, nonetheless, and a 2lb hike in the mark may not stop him today. The ground is much better today, which should suit, given he won on fast in June when things didn’t go his way early in the race, a performance that warranted an upgrade.
Lat time at Haydock he ran a career-best 75 speed rating. A bit more is needed given his revised mark. I feel he’s got the class to do that, in the right race.
Today may not be a fast run, though. In any case Auld Toon Loon will be in the right spot, up there close to the front, and possibly difficult to get to once in front.
10pts win – Auld Toon Loon @ 5/1
…….
5.00 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
This looks seriously competitive without being competitive. Few appear well-handicapped. Also the pace could turn out to make this difficult for some of the better fancied horses. The favourite may find himself stuck behind a wall of horses from his low draw, potentially.
Even though he already won twice in the not too distinct future and hasn’t rattled the cage in his two recent runs for a new yard, I can’t help but feel Surprise Picture – even with some money coming this morning – is overpriced, if on a going day, and could spring a surprise, indeed.
He shouldn’t find it too difficult to move across and track the pace from the #7 draw here. If he does that, he’ll be bang there when it matters when the field turns for home.
A possibly easy enough starting phase to get into a good spot, he also has pace for the trip but stays further and enjoys fast ground, at a track that favours those up with the pace over this trip – he could have enough left in the tank to fight it out.
He won last summer off 75 and ran to a 76 speed rating at Hamilton over 6 furlongs; his form this year has been moving closely into that direction again, as he ran a 70 speed rating for his Musselburgh win over 7f furlongs off 67 back in June.
Today may not be his day, I can see that argument that he’s only becoming competitive once below 70 again – but this looks a superb opportunity and I think he’ll be trying.
Jumby is out out and that opens up this race. I remain somewhat intrigued by Mostabshir, blinkers fitted, down in trip today.
If the ground dries out it’s going to help him quite a lot. I could see him ridden quite prominently and if this turns out to be a muddling affair he’s got potentially the gears. But it’s hard to be excited after his last two runs, truth told, and I want to see some spark first.
The most solid and proven option should be Pogo, though. He was a massive eye-catcher in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot and ran pretty well in the Criterion Stakes last months.
Possibly he did a little bit too much in the middle part of the race and it may have been a benefit to race on the far side as well. It was a strong run, nonetheless, and he confirmed the promise shown at Royal Ascot.
After a poor time in Dubai, the Queen Anne was a significant return to form – a performance that warranted serious upgrading.
He was most likely ridden with the aim to preserve his limited stamina over the stiff Ascot mile there and had too much to do from the rear of the field.
Yet, the way he made serious progress on the far side, quickening into the fastest part of the race, away from the pace as well, was seriously impressive.
He couldn’t keep up the effort over the stiff final furlong but then he’s a 7 furlongs specialist. The more the ground hopefully dries out today the better for him, of course.
Ideal Guest was a winner on Wednesday – thankfully, finally, one that did what was expected. There’ve been some lean weeks recently. As the gelding romped home at 5/1 SP, half the price I got in the morning, it brought solace to my beaten up betting soul.
🥇 Fantastic to have Mikkel ride a winner for us! His first for us and many more to come we’ve no doubt! Thanks for letting him be a part of our team 1 morning a week @FellowesRacing! pic.twitter.com/l5JZufTE6A
— George Margarson Racing (@MargarsonRacing) August 16, 2023
…….
4.00 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
This looks a seriously competitive race for this class and track and this time of the year. Even more so as I’ve got four eyecatchers lining up also.
Nonetheless, the one who does stand out as potentially enjoying this easier grade is 3-year-old gelding Paddy’s Day.
He ran in better grade the last few times, and did so without disgracing himself. In fact, he caught the eye, a number of times for various reasons.
His last two runs especially suggested he’s in pretty good form, albeit finding the opposition a bit too good, still.
Last time at Haydock I also felt Paddy’s Day wasn’t ideally drawn on the far side because race and pace developed away from him to the most part.
He was going okay for a long time, though, and in fact ran the fasted mid-section, yet when it mattered most he struggled to get a clean run through due to horses shifting right in front of him in the closing stages multiple times.
It’s debatable how much of a difference that made as he may have been done by that time anyway, but at the very least he was a theoretical chance to finish closer denied.
Paddy’s Day drops down to 75 and could be dangerous in this easier race, given he showed some promise in the past, including a class 5 Lingfield win off his current mark back in March.
On the negative side, he’s yet to run a speed rating that suggests he’s better than class 5 and the #1 can bring its own dangers.
I guess I’m in a world of pain from a betting perspective, once again. Feels like forever, over the last few months. I’ll take it. It’ll change, of course, as it always does.
Greatgardian 10/11. Golden Rainbow 9/10. The latter one another “masterclass” by Paul Mulrennan. I said it in my preview there’s every chance with this man on board at this track to see the scenario play out exactly as it did.
I’d love to see the stats for jockeys who ride horses that start slowly or awkwardly. PM would surely be top of the list. Especially on the All-Weather.
I can’t catch the man on a going day, that’s for sure. I can’t complain, I knew what I get into. Still annoying, especially on a long losing run, when you back the non-trier at these prices. It is what it is. Move on, hopefully today turns out to be a better one.
…….
5.15 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
Ideal Guest could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead as the pace map suggests it could materialise for the 4-year-old gelding here today.
He ran extremely well the last two times at this track over 6 and 7 furlongs. I liked his penultimate CD effort especially:
That day he led the field but was always closely followed. Put under severe pressure from 2f out, nonetheless he kept going and fought back gamely before surrendering late.
Followed up at the same venue with another strong front-running performance last week. Ideal Guest is clearly in good form, on a dangerous mark especially over 7f on decent ground in a race he could dominate from the front.
He’ll meet those conditions today and that makes me ignore his otherwise poor overall course (& distance) record at Yarmouth – 0/10, but it’s clear the track isn’t really a problem, as those last runs proved.
He’s best at Brighton, where he got an entry next week. There’s every chance he can go back to back, down to a mark of 60, that’s 2- and 10lb below his last two winning marks from last years summer. His best speed rating of 65 also gives him a significant chance, as I believe he isn’t far of that level right now.
There is little competition for the lead in this field. Ideal Guest may get away with a bit of an advantage that could be difficult to peg back wit the 7ln claim of Mikkel Mortensen another bonus.
I hoped for a better return to the ‘racing life’. 4 from 8 placed last week, some desperately close to win, but they didn’t get over the line, literally.
My current losing record stretches on for quite a while once again. This really is the most bizarre year of my “betting career”. Never had such dramatic swings before.
Not sure whether I’m changing or the game’s changing or whether this is normal variance that I was simply ‘lucky’ to avoid in such crassness in the past.
……
6.45 Chelmsford: Class 3 Handicap, 10f
This looks an ideal opportunity for Greatgadian who was not disgraced over a mile when not getting the rub of the green last time at Ascot and who has steadily dropped in the ratings despite some good runs this year off much higher.
He caught my eye for the first time in April in the Lincoln after he enjoyed a pretty decent winter on the All-Weather. The subsequent Nottingham run is one I also rated highly, although two lesser efforts in between raise some questions.
On the other hand, a return to 10 furlongs will surely suit, so is the return to Chelmsford. Greatgadian is a dual course and distance winner.
He ran well earlier this year off 99 over this CD when third, only a lengths beaten, and you would hope with the good #2 draw to go from today, off 90, he should be hard to beat, if everything is right.
10pts win – Greatgadian @ 6/1
……
9.00 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Golden Rainbow showed a return to form at Weatherby the last time after a wind operation where he ran seriously well over 5.5f in a hot contest.
He tracked the pace closely in second place and pressed he leader from over 2f out. Possibly ahead at final furlong marker, eventually horses from further back got the better of him.
He drops in class and ever so slightly down to the minimum trip on the All-Weather, which should be his optimum. His AW record reads 9-2-3 and even better in Handicaps.
He’s a course and distance winner and has no issue with the stiff finish at Newcastle over this trip. He even runs well over 6 furlongs here. There is plenty of pace on, so that should suit and make it a fair race. He’s got early speed, shouldn’t be too far away and well placed when the race probably develops toward the centre.
That hopefully ensures that the low draw isn’t that big a negative as it can be over this CD sometimes.
Obviously with this jockey on board, at this track, you don’t always know whether you get a ‘real’ effort. I’ll trust this looks an ideal opportunity to score, though.
3.26 Deauville: Group 1 Prix Jacques Le Marois, 1m
Wow, what a hot race. Probably the deepest Group 1 of the season, so far? The best of the Classic generation versus the best of the older milers. Exciting!
Twelve months ago the filly Inspiral won the race in a dramatic finish with a career-best performance. She’s here again and tries to defend her title. She has to put a shocking run in the Sussex Stakes behind, though.
If we forgive her the Goodwood run, which may have been simply down to the ground, her only other start this season came in the Queen Anne and was a massive given the circumstances.
The problem is: Deauville is likely to ride quite soft today. Softer than last year, and the fact remains Inspiral does her best work on a sounder surface. She may struggle in these conditions. And especially against some serious opposition, who do relish soft ground.
Good Guess ran to a 104 speed rating when he landed the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat recently. That’s brilliant form, but I doubt he gets home well enough against top-class opposition over a mile.
French Guineas winner Marhaba Ya Sanafi drops back to a mile after a gallant effort in the French Derby. He was caught up behind a wall of horses at the wrong time.
If he can take another step forward, which he has to in this field, he’s right in the mix. The fact he stayed on so strongly, makes me wonder whether a drop to a mile is the right move, though.
Light Infantry ran two huge races back-to-back in Group 1 company lately. A consistent colt, who at his very best can feature.
On last years form he’s got an obvious chance, given his superb runner-up performance in this very race. The ground doesn’t worry him and he should be competitive once again. Whether this seasons form is quite good enough remains to be seen, though.
His third place in the Queen Anne ties in with the winner of the Royal Ascot race, Triple Time. It was a massive career-best, somewhat unexpected for many, after 262 days off the track.
The talented son of Frankel showed promise earlier in his career but had issues that prevented him from realising his full potential as a 3-year-old. Now a year older, fit and healthy, he remains unexposed in a sense that we don’t know yet the ceiling.
He won on soft ground as a juvenile. Nonetheless, his best form comes on a sounder surface. This isn’t a class 4 Novice race at Haydock. There’re questions marks, for that reason, in my mind.
I’m curious about Erevann, who enjoys soft ground and on the basis of last years form would be a huge runner. He achieved a career-best in this race 12 months ago, and also won on deep ground a Group 2 in fine style subsequently.
If you’d run last years Jacques Le Marois again you may get a different result… it probably made a difference that Inspiral and Light Infantry finished closer to the rail, while Erevan stayed in the middle and also made contact with a rival two furlongs from home. Another day he wins it.
He wasn’t quite in the same form in two runs this year, yet – at least on paper. Although, perhaps it’s fair to say, he was quite unfortunate in the Prix d’Ispahan when last seen as his path was blocked on the inside rail over a furlong from home at the most crucial stage of the race.
If one wants to see his 2023 form in a negative light, then he was disappointing, given the market expectations on both occasions. In a more positive light one could read it: he has improve with each run and should peak today.
How much more peaking can Big Rock do? Current favourite and one who should enjoy the drop in trip with the deep ground to make it more a test of stamina, nonetheless.
He just got seriously tired in the final furlong in the French Derby, otherwise he’d have been an impressive winner. Big Rock ran consistently strong speed ratings this season. He’s rock solid, so to speak.
A break should have helped to recover from those big efforts. I wonder whether he’s quite at 100% today, though, with some big targets looming large in Autumn?
He’d be my ‘likeliest winner’ selection, nonetheless. At the prices I pass. I also pass on Hi Royal. Obviously I’m a fan, but this is too deep for him, most likely.
In summary: Plenty of serious chances in this field. What a race! At the given prices I’ll see the value in Erevann, who could peak today and with a clear run will be right in the mix when it matters most. Ground, trip and track are perfect.
I have been waiting for The Muffin Man to step up to a mile and he finally does it here, in a seriously poor race, that doesn’t take much for winning it.
The 3-year-old gelding showed some promise this season already, despite an 0/9 record. I wouldn’t give him any more chances, though. This should be his day to shine.
He drops down to a 49 handicap mark, 9 and 7 lb respectively lower than two eye-catching efforts back in May and June. Also his last run was better than the bare result suggested, given there were some solidly handicapped runners in the race, very much so the eventual winner.
He looked a bit sharper early on in the cheek pieces, although, maybe a bit too sharp for his own good. They are off today. The #5 draw is a positive, as long as he isn’t slowly away and gets too far behind as a consequence.
That may happen and seal his fate early on. But he was away well enough when last seen, so here’s hoping. Ben Sanderson claims valuable 3lb – with that in mind, if allowed to run on merit the gelding should be seriously well-handicapped now.
10pts win – The Muffin Man @ 12.5/1
………..
6.07 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
A hugely frustrating and inconsistent sort, Glorious Rio is one not to trust. However, he showed signs of life multiple times this year, and now returns on turf to the minimum trip, on ground that hopefully doesn’t get too soft.
He pulled hard at Newcastle last time over 6 furlongs but ran well in the circumstances, as he’s done a number of times when somewhat unfortunate not getting the best of runs.
He dropped to a seriously dangerous mark now, down to 60; Glorious Rio won 4 times of similar or higher ratings on multiple surfaces and ground conditions, mostly over the minimum trip and also off big weights.
The #11 could be ideal, as it should lead him nicely into the finish, following those that are setting pace against the stands’ side.
Slight concerns over the weather forecast: I hope it’s only going to be one or two small showers, and no more. I don’t think he wants it proper soft conditions.
His very best came on fast ground. Although, he won on good to soft last summer. So the way it should ride given the current forecast will be fine.
10pts win – Glorious Rio @15/2
……
8.07 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
The drop in trip in combination with a drop in class will really suit He’s a Gentleman who didn’t get home the last two times over a mile. He ran with plenty of credit, nonetheless, especially last time out when only beaten late.
He can race off the same mark here, which gives him the opportunity to run in this 0-70 contest where he should find life a little bit easier than most of the time this year so far.
The recent run is a clear return to form, suggesting he’s not far off the excellent form he showed last year when also running to speed ratings in the 70s.
If he can follow-up, with the pace scenario possibly suiting him too, he could prove a step above the rest in this field.
Brilliant run by Beccara Rose last night at Sandown. With a furlong to go I thought she had it. Sadly she got tired, and two horses from off the pace came to catch her.
Shame, still searching for a winner after my return. Dartman faded away rapidly from two furlongs out.
…….
4.00 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Better ground and a drop in trip should do the trick for lightly raced Captain Cuddles.
This race looks probably a little bit easier, although the same grade, as when he caught the eye a few weeks ago at Ascot.
That day he tracked the hot pace before he made good progress from three furlongs out to move into the lead eventually as the front-runner faded away.
He wasn’t able to sustain the effort but good third and only one in the mix late from those tracking the pace. Winner and runner-up came from well off the pace, instead.
He remains a lightly raced 3-year-old with scope for improvement off 80. I feel the drop in trip can only be a positive, as he may not quite got home over 7 furlongs at Ascot, especially with cut in the ground.
Captain Cuddles is a 6f winner on fast ground as a juvenile, and has only been seen three times since, including this latest return to form. The 5lb claim of solid apprentice Alec Voikhansky can only be a bonus today.
Horseracing - International . COM 