Tag Archives: Ascot

Betting

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes 2024 – Preview

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The QEII looks a tasty renewal: Big Rock romped home when let loose on the lead last year. He’s not here to defend his crown – however, a field of 13 go to post where pace, ground and freshness could be the deciding factors.

#1 Charyn: four wins from six races this season, including the Queen Anne. Greatly improved as a 4-year-old and ground versatile. He’s been the star miler this year.

Suspicion is he may be seen to best effect on a better surface, though. His two biggest performances on the clock came in June on a faster surface.

It’s been a long season and he had a tough race at Longchamp a fortnight ago. Still a massive run back then to finish runner-up, eventually, where he had too much to do.

Remains the one do beat, but a short price in this race, given there’s opposition to beat with a good record on soft ground.

#2 Checkandchallenge: Improved for a gelding operation. Ran credible in this race the last two years. Still shouldn’t be good enough.

#3 Facteur Cheval: Runner-up in this twelve months ago. Followed-up with winning the Dubai Turf. Handles soft ground seriously well and comes here fresher than some of his other key rivals.

A return to a softer surface and possible a good pace to lead him into the race could see him improve from his third at Goodwood, when last seen; arguably a strong piece of form, on a much faster surface.

He ran a massive race last year here, waiting too long for his effort, with the winner long gone, but finished much the best. Serious chance today.

#4 Lord Massus: Only a listed winner do date, although placed in a couple of Group 2’s. Unlikely to be good enough to feature.

#5 Poker Face: Likely one of the pace horses. Runner-up on three occasions in Group 2 company this year. Unlikely to enjoy an uncontested lead.

#6 Prague: Lightly raced and supplemented after recent impressive Group 2 victory at Newmarket. Impressive mid-race move and kept going when others faltered.

Followed-up from an unlucky second at Haydock Improving and looks open to tons of progress. Certainly deserves his chance on this level.

He enjoys this type of ground as well and should benefit from a strong pace. A possible negative is the draw: far away on the outside away from the likely pace, unless Lord Massus moves forward as well and he can follow.

#7 Quddwah: Another low-mileage colt. Won the Group 2 Summer Mile here this season and also won over the straight mile last season. Intriguing; however, a career-best 82 speed rating would need him to see improve quite dramatically.

#8 Dancing Gemini: Showed so much promise earlier in his career. Unfortunate not to win the French Guineas. Disappointed ever since, and a long way beaten when last season, despite a significant drop in class.

#9 Henry Longfellow: Largely consistent, having ran to a good standard this season, apart from a disaster run in the French Guineas. Nonetheless, arguably a major disappointment that he wasn’t able to fulfil the promise he showed as a juvenile.

Probably up with the pace, and that could be a positive. But the ground is against him and he may not get home over a mile in soft conditions.

#10 Ice Max: Enjoys soft ground and was a fine winner of the Celebration Mile in August. Throw his race away when last seen and will enjoy the likely good pace. Hard to envision him good enough to win.

#11 Metropolitan: French 2000 Guineas winner. Good the ideal run that day and made most of it, holding on in a tight finish, eventually. Somewhat unfortunate not to finish a bit closer the next two times against top-class opposition, without being disgraced as 2nd and 3rd.

Unlikely he would have beaten Rosallion at Ascot, but he was a clear run denied at a crucial stage and that cost him dearly. Also not ideally placed having to delay his effort, held up behind the pace, last time at Deauville. Finished well, although couldn’t match Charyn’s turn of foot once in the clear.

The ground should make a significant difference to his chances. It’ll stunt the finishing speed of his rivals, while he can quicken well enough on a soft surface. He should be ridden closer to the pace, and is ideally placed to follow Henry Longfellow and Poker Pace.

He’s been drifting in the betting all morning, to my surprise. Not sure why, and that’s a worry, because it doesn’t make sense to me. Conditions should be ideal for him and he comes here relatively fresh.

#12 Sirona: A listed winner on heavy ground when last seen. Shouldn’t stand a chance to feature.

#13 Tamfana: Progressive filly who won her first Group 1 two weeks ago landing the Sun Chariot in excellent style. The ground won’t be a worry and she looks well drawn in and around the likely pace.

She had a long enough season, though, and is a short enough price, given her overall win record isn’t all that impressive.

Summary: a wide open renewal. Charyn sets a high standard but could be vulnerable in these conditions at the end of a long season. He’s a short price

Metropolitan appeals at a huge price, while has Facteur Cheval has the ability to go one better than twelve months ago, with conditions set to be ideal. Prague looks potentially a special colt.

5pts win – Facteur Cheval @ 13/2 SM
5pts win – Prague @ 12.5/1
2.5pts win – Metropolitan @ 17/1 SM

Betting

Saturday Selections: 27th July 2024

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3.40 Ascot: Group 1 – King George, 1m 4f

Auguste Rodin sets a very high standard in the King George – if on a going day. He’s the right favourite, and hard to knock on his 2024 form.

Somewhat of an enigma last year, this season he improved nicely from his seasonal reappearance at the Curragh, to land the Group 1 POW at this venue last month in fine style.

Two performances achieving a 100+ speed rating back-to-back as well – clearly on decent ground Auguste Rodin is a superstar. With the pace and race likely to be run in his favour, with his stablemates, including high-class Luxembourg likely to to move forward, he should be in an ideal position when the fields turns for home.

One could argue 6/4 is a pretty fair price, given nearly everything will be in his favour today. It’s not my type of price, but I think you could back far worse shots at these short prices.

Saying that, there’s some decent opposition to beat, albeit, they all have their work cut out, given none of them enjoys the luxury of two pacemakers helping their cause.

Rebel’s Romance is the closest rival in the betting. I don’t he’s good enough to beat Auguste Rodin, though. His best form comes away from home, and he never achieved a Group 1 speed rating on turf so far.

That’s perhaps controversial to say, given he won two Group 1 races this year already. And those were competitive ones at Meydan and Hong Kong. At 7/2 I see zero value in back him, nonetheless.

The filly Bluestocking looks progressive as she matures. Her Pretty Polly win last month was a superb piece of form. Can she translate this type of performance to fast ground and 12 furlongs? If so, she’d be a serious danger.

Middle Earth, so far in her career, hasn’t shown that she’s Group 1 class. Duabi Honour has, and he could outran a big price for a place. Although, his very best form comes over 10 furlongs.

To call Luxembourg, a most recent Group 1 Coronation Stakes winner, a pace maker is probably harsh. He’ll run on merit, no doubt, and is a fair each-way shout at current prices. I do believe he’s best over 10 furlongs, on the other hand, and may be outstayed for win purposes.

There no question that the only 3-year-old colt in the race, Sunway, is tremendously overpriced. 17/1+ on the exchanges is obviously a bonkers price.

Saying that, to start with a negative: his draw an likely position in the race are massive negatives. He’ll likely be held up and will have plenty to do once the field turns for home. His challenge may come too late.

Nonetheless, at this price I can’t leave him unbacked. There’s too much juice in the these odds, for various reasons.

For one: His 108 speed rating achieved in the Irish Derby is the best on offer in this field this season. I believe the Curragh Classic was a strong renewal, and the form will stand the test of time.

Further to that, he achieved that brilliant runner-up performance in less than ideal circumstances. Coming from off the pace, he had a lot to do, didn’t get the best run through, and still finished the fastest over the last three furlongs, thanks to a rapid final furlong.

That run demonstrates his class but also his possibly vulnerability, certainly over this trip, given the way he’s ridden over 12 furlongs. From his #7 draw today most likely he’ll be ridden in similar fashion.

The hope is that they go hard up front and that James Doyle can make progress from halfway out to swing around the bend for a clear run not further back than midfield to unleash a turn of foot, that seems present, especially on better ground, to give Sunway a fair chance to win.

10pts win – Sunway @ 17/1

…….

7.15 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

This looks a superb chance for Sir Oliver to score as he drops down in class again, having lost another 2lb of his mark and gets the added bonus of solid 3lb claiming Christian Howarth in the saddle.

Sir Oliver has ran well enough lately, having finished a gallant 3rd over this course and distance in June, when not ideally placed, in a hot 0-75 Handicap off 3lb higher than today.

He was too keen the next two times back over 7 furlongs, although, also harshly judged in better class, especially most recently at Ascot in a strong class 4 contest.

Down to class 5, where he enjoys a 9-3-4 record and 3-1-2 ground over 6 furlongs on on decent to fast ground, he looks well handicapped in this race today. Albeit competitive in nature, and the #1 draw not quite ideal, the pace scenario shapes well enough for him to cross over quickly to the far rail.

So with fast ground, trip and track to suit, in an easier race, and having shown form lately, Sir Oliver could be hard to beat today.

10pts win – Sir Oliver @ 5/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 21st June 2024

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I was due a bit of good fortune, and got it: Almaty Star made all and held on, thankfully, in the tightest of photos to win at Chelmsford yesterday afternoon.

A 2 from 2 seemed on the cards when Brassavola kicked for home but she couldn’t quite sustain her effort and finished 2nd. A good day nonetheless, which I’m more than happy with, given there weren’t too many good days this year, so far.

……

5.40 Ascot: Group 2 – King Edward VII Stakes, 1m 4f

A hot renewal and the pace should be on. You have to stay the trip, but at the same you’ll need to travel and find a good position. I reckon anything from well off the pace won’t feature.

A prime candidate who possesses these capabilities is the Aiden O’Brien trained Agenda. He is a bit on the drift this morning in the betting and can be backed at even bigger prices than the 7’s I took – I remain cautiously confident that he’ll run a big race, nonetheless.

He caught the eye on his two runs this season. Seriously green and raw at Dundalk when he returned from a break, he travelled off the pace and wider than ideal after an awkward start. He showed a nice bit of acceleration mid-race to get to the front and kicked clear in the closing stages.

He deserved his spot in the Chester Vase and ran a huge race I felt. He went quickly to the front and winded up the tempo from 5 furlongs out, having many of his rivals in trouble not much alter. He kicked for home three furlongs out and was only beaten by a potentially brilliant winner.

Agenda didn’t quite look at home at the ever turning Chester, I thought. He also hit the rails, becoming unbalanced, about 1.5f out which didn’t help.

He’s lightly raced with plenty of upside, improved with each of his three runs and showed that he can travel and change gears. I’m surprised he goes here and not to the Irish Derby as that could have been an ideal race.

Saying that, Ascot will be an equally suitable track. His draw should allow him to get to a prominent position quickly, perhaps following his stable mate Chief Little Rock in #1.

Whether he truly stays the trip is a small question mark, given the speed on the dam side and the fact he couldn’t quite sustain his challenge at Chester. But then Galileo as a stamina influence will help and the decent ground should suit.

10pts win – Agenda @ 7/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 19th June 2024

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Great run by Henry Longfellow in the St James’s Palace Stakes to finish a gallant runner-up – what a fantastic race that was. Beaten, as close as it was, by a better horse on the day.

Rosallion couldn’t have been more impressive, though. He travelled, he quickened – that was impressive! A rematch would be intriguing: Rosallion had the better draw, Henry had to be used up a bit more in the early stages to get to a prominent position and was a bit keen as well.

However, I feel Henry Longfellow may have more scope for improvement if he moves up to 10 furlongs. You’d think the Eclipse could be an ideal race for him. But we know his stable has a prime candidate for that specific race already.

Possibly the Irish Champion Stakes? It’s going to be interesting to see where Ballydoyle routes Henry next. He should win a Group 1 this season.

No good fortune last night for my other two selections: Port And Starburd was incredibly well-backed, went off 2/1 fav… just to miss the break badly. Barnsnape Boy looks a lost hope, I’m afraid.

……..

4.25 Ascot: Group 1 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, 1m 2f

Perhaps backing anything else than Auguste Rodin is hoping in vain. Because if he puts his best foot forward he’ll be too good for this field.

On the better ground he likes most, over this trip, he looks bound for a return to his best form. Certainly if he’s anywhere near the form he showed in the Irish Champion Stakes, the clear standout piece here, he’ll be tough to beat.

I reckon with a stable mate not drawn too far away, they’ll try to give him a nice lead to chase, somewhat similar to Leopardstown. He should strip fitter for his seasonal reappearance, a fine 2nd behind White Birch.

Nonetheless, given he’s shown be not the most trustworthy, he can be taken on. I’m not yet fully sold on Inspiral over 10 furlongs, despite her Santa Anita success. She acts on fast ground, though, that’s as much as we know. She could find herself too far back in this race, possibly, though.

The value in the race in my book is clearly the French filly Blue Rose Cen. From the #4 draw she’ll be nicely positioned, as she usually starts well, and she can lead or track the pace closely.

Her seasonal reappearance caught my eye. She found herself in a pocket from 2 furlongs out, and couldn’t get out until it was too late. She ran home well enough. One would think she wasn’t fully tuned up for that race.

Over the 1 mile 2(ish) furlongs trip her record is strong.: two Group 1 wins against her own sex last year, and an arguably unfortunate 4th in the Nassau Stakes.

Her Diane form, where she achieved a super 104 speed rating, gives her a cracking chance, if she could reproduce it. Obvious question mark is the ground. She never raced on anything this fast.

However, I don’t think her action is too pronounced, and certainly on pedigree she should love it. Her dam won a Grade 1 on proper firm ground in the US and Churchill is a Group 1 winner on good to firm. She’ll be fine, more likely than not.

Whether Blue Rose Cen is good enough against the boys at the top level remains to be seen. She has to be at her very best to have a chance. This field doesn’t look all that deep, though, if you take Auguste Rodin out, given my reservations about Inspiral.

She’ll be in a prime spot, most likely, as the field turns for home and then will be given every chance to run her race. At the prices, I’m prepared to run the risk.

10pts win – Blue Rose Cen @ 10/1

…….

6.50 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Strong Johnson seems to hit some form again and may have found an ideal race to score today. He had three solid runs since January, especially the last two since returning to turf off a small break.

At York in a hot Handicap he was still somewhat outclassed, although he showed lovely early speed. Last time at Ripon he showed good pace once again, and ran well for a long time over a trip that’s probably a stretch in that grade, especially if the pace is hot.

He dropped to a mark of 77 now, and is back over the minimum trip, down in class as well. The last time he ran in class 5 he won nicely at Redcar, and followed up a few weeks later off a 79 mark.

Those performances aren’t that long ago. He hit decent speed ratings regularly in 2023 and his last three performances suggest he’s ready to hit the same hights again.

Any juice in the ground won’t be an issue given his ground versatile record. The #1 draw is the only small negative. But I hope, given Little Melody is drawn in #3, that the pace will develop on his side, so he can follow her for a lead closely and Ryan Sexton can press the button 2f out.

10pts win – Strong Johnson @ 4/1

…….

7.50 Nottingham: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

I loved the recent run from Standbackandlook at Leicester. A significant improvement to his to prior Handicap runs. A change in tactics made all the difference.

He bumped into a well-handicapped winner, but also wasn’t helped by his wide draw, that saw him travelled wide for the first two furlongs and spending plenty of energy to get to the front.

He travelled well and gradually winded up the tempo, eventually finishing a clear second best on the day. He was possibly somewhat flattered given the sedate nature of the pace in the middle part of the race, one could argue, though.

But he showed a nice attitude running hard under pressure and looks better than his current 55 rating, now only in his 4th handicap start, with positive tactics.

His family produced plenty of winners, mostly over middle-distances, and the dam should offset the speedy sire, who also has got winners over 10 furlongs already.

The pace scenario looks potentially muddling today, and that will play into Standbackandlook’ hands. He can simply move forward, lead or sit second, nicely placed, and could have too much in hand off his current 55 rating.

10pts win – Standbackandlook  @ 7/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 18th June 2024

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Kiss And Run overcame a shaky start at Windsor last night to win with a bit of authority in the end. With a better break she would have won with plenty of hand in that race.

Another winner for June. A rollercoaster, after a poor weekend; at least I back some winners again and keep it an open month to finish finally in green again.

…….

4.25 Ascot: Group 1 – St James’s Palace Stakes, 1m

This looks a deep renewal. Multiple Classic winners in the field and a good pace looks assured to make it a proper race.

Notable Speech heads the market a short 5/4 favourite. You can see why: his impressive runaway victory at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas was visually and on the clock seriously arresting.

He clearly profited from a hot pace that day and not getting involved in the early pace battle too. Travelling toward the rear on the outside, he was well placed and made smooth progress to kick away from subsequent Irish 2000 Guineas winner Rosallion.

Unbeaten in four starts now, of course he must have a prime chance today. There is no value in his price, though. Ascot is a different track, this race may pan out differently, and the ground is quite a bit faster as well. Notable Speech is the likeliest winner at this stage, but perhaps a bit short, given the depth of this field.

You would think Newmarket runner-up Rosallion can finish a bit closer this time. He got a little bit earlier involved, notably travelling strongly, at Newmarket, and finished a gallant second. He got his Classic win a few weeks later at the Curragh with an impressive finish to deny stable mate Haatam.

The slight knock on him is the fact he’s yet to run a speed rating 100+ in six career starts. He contested 5 Listed or Group races, though. Ample opportunity, actually.

Sometimes that’s down to circumstances, but I wonder whether we let visuals dictate how we perceive the chances of Rosallion.

French Guineas winner Metropolitan profited from a low draw and a perfect racing position where he got first run on Dancing Gemini, the eventual runner-up.

Fast ground is a concern, and I need to see him do this again before I believe he’s that good. He clearly enjoyed the run of the race at Longchamp.

Unquestionable was beaten in the Irish 2000 Guineas by over six lengths. But he needed the run, according to his trainer. He looked like that, for sure.

A progressive juvenile, who landed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, he should come on for the run, love the fast ground and has a nice draw. He could outrun his price.

Alyanaabi ran a strong race in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Probably on the wrong side of the pace, he travelled without cover and closer than ideal to the hot pace. He did well to finish as close as he did, but was keen early on and needs to settle today, if any chance for a finish in the money.

Almaqam has won twice this year. He steps up in class in no uncertain terms. The quality could be there, for all he’s got plenty to find, not least on speed ratings, where a best 74 won’t cut it here today.

Progressive French raider Darlinghurst doesn’t look the right sort today, given fast ground and a mile, judged by his profile.

That leaves one horse to talk about: Henry Longfellow. No surprise, he’s one of the horses to follow this year.

His seasonal reappearance at Longchamp in the French 2000 Guineas was a total nightmare. Whether by design – tactical error – or necessity, he got shuffled back soon after the start, making his decent draw redundant. Halfway through he received a little check and fell even further back.

With only one horse behind him over 2 furlongs from home he had no chance to finish in the placings even. Not the clearest of passages either, nonetheless from 1.5 out he ran home nicely to suggest he has trained on.

The yard keeps the faith and repeatably said they still believe he’s a really good colt. And so do I. Today is a new day, different race, different track, different ground.

The better ground should be a clear advantage. He’s yet to race on ground this fast, but his dam won a Group 1 on fast ground, and sons of Dubawi usually don’t mind the type of underfoot conditions.

He should be a better 3-year-old than he was a juvenile. And he was a top-class juvenile. Visually and on the clock he’s been nothing short of impressive in his three career runs last season.

The way he quickened on debut and next time in the Futurity Stakes was highly promising. He subsequently made top-class 2-year-old Bucanero Fuerte look like a lowly rated claimer in the National Stakes.

He achieved two 100+ speed ratings in those last two races in 2023. The sign of potential superstar, if he could train on. He has to improve today, of course, given the depth of this field.

I’m mostly concerned about the draw. It may invite Ryan Moore to settle for a position off the pace once again. However, I feel Henry Longfellow has stamina beyond this trip and would benefit from tracking the pace, no matter how hot it’s going to be.

Depending how the race pans out in the early stages, Moore may have to settle off the pace, no matter what he would want to do in an ideal world. But I hope he tries to get to a position no further back than midfield or 4-5 lengths off the lead, to be in with a shot to swing around the home bend and go for gold three furlongs out.

10pts win – Henry Longfellow @ 9/2

………

7.15 Beverley: Class 6 Handicap, 7.5f

Port And Starburd ran a huge race ten days ago over this course and distance in a slightly stronger race. She wasn’t helped early on by a rival who came swinging around the outside to complete for the lead and it seemed to set her alight.

She travelled strongly chasing the leader eventually, possibly was even ahead with half a furlong to go, but had to pay tribute and was beaten by two rivals with more restraint.

The filly is 0/5 but can race off the same mark. A repeat of that level of performance will see her go really close once again, especially as he may bounce out and get an easy lead this time.

She clearly improved for moving up in trip and has every chance on pedigree to stay this distance, perhaps even an additional half furlong, to stretch out to a mile.

Slight concern is the soft ground. This most recent run came on a fast surface; on the other hand, on debut, she finished a strong 4th on soft ground.

10pts win – Port And Starburd @ 9/2

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8.30 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Barnsnape Boy looks underestimated here if allowed to run on merit. Still a maiden, this filly caught the eye the last two times thanks to her aggressive front-running style.

Ten days ago she set a hot pace from a wide draw. She had the field on the stretch and was still in the mix entering the final furlong. She must be in good form and clearly on winnable mark in order to that.

She was way too fast in the first half of the race at Carlisle at the end of May where she led until the final furlong once again.

The fact she acts on fast ground is a positive as Brighton and fast ground over this trip lends itself to blast away and play “catch me if you can”. She’s another couple of pounds lower today, in a weak race where she could be able to dominate from her draw.

I like the fact that a stronger jockey is in the saddle. It’s also Trevor Whelan’s only ride today. The price drift is a worry, of course, and if she’s tried to be restraint we’ll know our fate right away. But if allowed to move to the front, she could be hard to peg back.

10pts win – Barnsnape Boy @ 15.5/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 21st October 2023

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1.50 Ascot: Group 1 British Champions Sprint, 6f

It’s going to be interesting to see how the track rides and the draw it’s going to favour on this going, with the switch to the inside track.

This race could – certainly from a pace angle – shape to favour the lower drawn horses. That should very much favour Kinross who isn’t drawn too far away from those who’ll likely move forward.

Nonetheless, there are two bigger prices that I quite like to possibly outrun their odds: the two fillies Swingalong and drawn right beside her, Believing.

Both ran huge races in the same race last time out at Haydock, when third and fourth in the Group 1 Sprint Cup. Different track and ground today, yet the two fillies have shown to handle soft underfoot conditions.

Swingalong started off her season with a fine effort in the Fred Darling on deep ground. She didn’t get home in those conditions over 7 furlongs, and certainly didn’t stay a mile in even worse conditions at Longchamp in the French 1000 Guineas.

But when dropped to 6 furlongs in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, she outrun her big odds to finish a superb 3rd. She followed on to show excellent early speed and guts in the closing stages to land the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York.

At Haydock, when last seen, she was completely isolated on the stands’ side, which wasn’t ideal. The filly did well to hang on for fourth and probably could have finished much closer if she would have raced as part of the main field, I felt.

Believing raced just on the outside of the main bunch for the most part of the race that day, and she finished closer to the stands side ultimately, racing without company for the last two furlongs, which wasn’t an advantage. I loved her attitude, nonetheless, as she kept on for third place all the way to the line.

She achieved a career-best speed rating of 100 that day, having shown excellent improvement from a strong 92 showing at Pontefract when she won against the run of race after a less than ideal start from a wider than ideal draw, coming from well off the pace.

The filly is progressing all the time this year despite her relative experience with 14 career runs under the belt. She won three times this season and did so on soft ground as well.

Her draw looks ideal, she probably will be forward enough with headgear fitted for the first time, and if she tracks Swingalong, she may get a nice lead into the finish.

Swingalong herself has ran 97 speed figures back-to-back now, and may not have reached her peak yet. She has form on soft and possesses possibly a bit of extra stamina that could be key for her to stay in front in the closing stages. She has to improve again, though, that’s clear also.

This is incredibly competitive, though. Things have to go right from start to finish for both these fillies to outrun their price tag. However, if things fall right, these two fillies clearly have the ability to finish a lot closer than 30/1+ odds suggest.

5pts win – Swingalong @ 35/1
5pts win – Believing @ 31/1

……..

3.05 Ascot: Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, 1m

What a brilliant field. A true race of champions. But does the ground change the trajectory of the race? I definitely think so. This is going to be a fast race, on soft ground. It’ll take solid cruising speed and stamina to win.

I have worries that this isn’t the right test for brilliant Tahira to bring the best out of her, as mouth watering a clash with Paddington is on paper.

Paddington is the one to beat. He’s a superb miler and possibly an even better horse over ten furlongs. He ran two 110+ speed ratings this season and has won on any ground. This mile test with cut in the ground could be an ideal test.

On the other hand, his very best form came on better ground. He also had a lot of racing and didn’t fire at York when last seen. AOB is the master to get his stars back on track, so you would think Paddington comes here in the form of his life.

Nonetheless, given the price is short enough, I think one can be bold and take this superstar colt on.

Nashwaa over a mile is one to consider. She ran 100 and 106 speed ratings the last two times over 10 furlongs. However, again the ground is a slight question mark, as her best comes on better going as well. Still, this testing mile should suit.

Chaldean over a mile on softish ground at Ascot could be a perfect match. He looks a touch overpriced.

However, clearly the one who seems the forgotten horse in this field is Big Rock. Perhaps, some take a too negative view on his last two runs when beaten favourite.

In my view, this test will suit him tremendously well. The ground, the track and the fact he may not even need to make all but rather follow the pace closely, which should be hot enough – and if not he simply moves forward – looks perfect.

Prominent horses should be favoured here and once he hits the front he may be difficult to pass.

It’s true, though, he’s got to bounce back from a somewhat unconvincing 2nd place in the Prix du Moulin. He wasn’t the sharpest away, and possibly did too much in the early stages of the race.

If one is prepared to forgive him that below-par performance – still a runner-up performance in Group 1 company – then he’s right up there with the best in this field.

His second behind Inspiral in the Jacques le Marois is seriously strong form. The filly came from off the pace to overhaul him late. He achieved a superb 108 speed rating that day, nonetheless.

In hindsight, given what Ace Impact did since then, Big Rock’s runner-up performance in the French Derby looks even better than it did on the day itself.

He did a lot in front, and was only beaten in the closing staged by the subsequent Arc winner, who was ridden with much more restraint.

Overall, Big Rock has been a consistently top-class performer this year. I believe this track, trip and ground can bring the best out of him.

10pts win – Big Rock @ 8/1

Eyecatchers

Royal Ascot 2023 – Eyecatchers

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Royal Ascot 2023 saw many memorable performances, in victory as in defeat. Here’s a list of horses that caught my eye during the last week at Royal Ascot.

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Tuesday, 20/06/2023

2.30 – Queen Anne Stakes:

Clearly the best finishing here was favourite Inspiral. She was fastest through the last five furlongs but was at a disadvantage having to come from well off the pace with a run on the wide outside of the field, away from the pace and possibly without cover much earlier than ideal.

She is a suspect starter, a tricky individual, but obviously top-class. She was the best horse in the race and simply unfortunate the way the race developed.

Whether she can back up this performance remains to be seen. She ran a 100+ speed rating here, for the second time in her career.

Inspiral looks to have the measure of the older milers but remains tactically vulnerable to any more straightforward and prominently ridden horse in a race where the pace isn’t red hot, as well as once she meets the Classic generation.

The biggest eyecatcher to note for the future was Pogo, especially once he drops down in trip. He was certainly ridden with the aim to preserve his limited stamina over the stiff Ascot mile.

He had too much to do from the rear of the field but the way he made serious progress on the far side, quickening into the fastest part of the race, away from the pace as well, even more disadvantaged than Inspiral perhaps, was seriously impressive.

He couldn’t keep up the effort over the stiff final furlong. This performance demonstrated he’s still in strong form, though. He may be underestimated when he drops to a more suitable trip the next time as his recent form reads poorly on paper.

Race Replay

3.40 – King’s Stand Stakes:

The lower to middle drawn horses dominated. In that context Anaf’s effort for third is noteworthy. I’d be not too sure whether he’s able to repeat such huge performance, though. He’s not really shown to belong in this class and his effort petered out quickly in the final half furlong.

Even more impressive was Twilight Call. Badly squeezed right after the start, he found himself at the rear of the field and gave ground away early on when switching to the far side.

He didn’t get a run until very late, in fact only got into the clear just over half a furlong from home, yet finished the joint fastest final furlong split and second best for the last four furlongs.

A strong pace, minimum trip and decent to fast ground are his optimum. This was a clear return to form and he’ll be dangerous in the right conditions. Though, he’s far from a prolific winner, given that he needs everything to fall right.

Race Replay

4.20 – St James’s Palace Stakes:

Paddington was in a different league to the rest. He’s quickly proving himself to be the best of the three-year-old milers. He has the speed and the stamina and didn’t get an ideal trip. Still won easily.

Clear second best in the race was Charyn, I believe. The only one who could somewhat make an impression in the home straight and ran home the fastest final furlong, even though “fast” was relative in this case.

He came from off the pace, which wasn’t ideal, and as a consequence turned wide for a challenge. Class probably got him through the finish more so than stamina.

I’m not sold on his stamina for a properly run mile. He was eyecatching at the Curragh as well in the Irish 2000 Guineas, though that wasn’t a fast race.

A drop to 7 furlongs looks ideal. With a solid pace and decent ground he could be an intriguing runner. Has an entry for the 7f Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh next month.

Race Replay

5.35 – Wolferton Stakes:

The best horse won on the day. Royal Champion gave ground away all the time, yet that ensured he was in the right position when it mattered most. He can win a Group race.

So may be Checkandchallenge. He’s already a Group 3 winner, and often runs consistently well, although equally as consistently found out for class in Group 2 level and above.

He was restrained from a very wide draw here, had a lot to do as he entered the home straight but ran home extremely well. In fact, he finished the last four furlongs the best in his first attempt over 10 furlongs.

On pedigree he has scope to stretch out and could be interesting back in Listed or Group 3 class over this trip. He’s yet to impress on speed ratings, but I feel in the right race (could also be a strongly run mile) he could finally run to something significant. This performance was hugely encouraging.

So was King Of Conquest. He was caught wide early from his draw, before settling at the back of the field. He also had a lot to do from there as he turned wide to run home strongly, without getting beaten up late.

He’s still progressive, achieved a career-best speed rating here and deserves a crack at a Group 3 or perhaps even one of the lesser Group 2 races over this trip.

Race Replay

Thursday, 22/06/2023

3.05 – King George V Stakes:

Bertinelli had a wide draw and top weight to overcome. He was taken off his feet during the frantic early fractions but made strong progress from 4f out as he turned wide, touched a rival as they entered the straight and ran home strongly.

He achieved a 104 speed rating. That is Group class and would give him a shot at a Group 1 even. I have maintained my belief in his class for a long time and am somewhat surprised that we saw him here and not in the Irish Derby.

He stays well and could go up in trip as well, which may be less competitive. The Leger or perhaps Irish version for that matter, would be intriguing.

Land Legend is the other horse who made a huge impression. He was slowly away yet again, and had a lot to catch up early on. After the first two furlongs he was then quicker through the next part of the race than those that finished in the placings.

He was stuck behind a wall in the home straight, though, until 2f out as he quickened nicely, as one of the few actually able to quicken, before getting badly short of room at the final furlong marker again.

Slowly away in nearly all his starts, he gives the field often a head-start. Nonetheless, if he could somehow manager to get better out, he’d be well handicapped off his mark and may have options beyond Handicaps as well.

Race Replay

5.00 – Britannia Stakes:

The two early leaders on the far side make appeal for the future for different reasons. Quick out of the gate and doing way too much too soon, especially in the first two furlongs, was Forca Timao.

He faded badly, as one would expect. The drop to a mile didn’t yield in a return to form, seemingly. Though, he strikes me as oddly campaigned. He ran a huge race in a slowly run Gold Cup Heritage handicap at Newbury, but doesn’t look like one who truly stays that trip.

He may stretch out well to a mile, ultimately, but a drop to 7 furlongs would be most intriguing. He may offer some upside then, especially if the handicapper is kind and drops him below 90.

If the handicapper is kind to Thunder Ball and doesn’t raise him too much, if at all, for his 3l beaten 4th place he remains an intriguing runner as well.

Despite helping to push that hot early pace, he was there in front for a long time, fighting strongly and showing excellent attitude.

He was very impressive in a Novice Stakes in May and could have more to offer. A drop down to 7 furlongs wouldn’t be a worry at all, may be even ideal.

Race Replay

5.35 – Hampton Court Stakes:

The winner was the best horse in the race and gives this form a strong look. Some of those behind him can be marked up and deserve another chance.

Expolanet is an obvious one. from the #11 draw caught wide early, and for most of the race, he was positioned in midfield, gradually progressing, using more energy in the first half compared to Waipiro.

He turned wide and lost a bit of momentum, which he quickly regained before getting hampered 1.5f from home. He got going again, but that was the moment the winner went through and kicked on. He held on well for 2nd.

A clear run and he finishes perhaps only a lengths behind the strong winner. Didn’t impress on speed ratings yet but caught the eye when unfortunate in a hot race at Newbury.

Bolster ran in the same colours. He ran green in and keenly in the early part, jumped to his right, gave the eventual winner a bump.

Was closer to the pace than most that finished ahead of him. Made good progress upon entering the straight, but received a bad bump by the shifting front-runner 2f out. Got going again, but short of room 1f out once again.

Lightly raced and definitely more to come. Not sure he wants further and on pedigree a drop to a mile wouldn’t look like a bad thing either, perhaps.

Race Replay

Friday, 23/06/2023

3.40 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes:

Danny Tudhope gave Live Your Dream and inspired ride from the front, quickly overcoming the wide draw. He did way too much in the first half of the race and had no business finishing so well.

A huge run, he obviously has stamina in abundance but also tactical speed as was on evidence here. He achieved a superb 101 speed rating and he warrants a step up into pattern class.

Has only entries in Handicap company and that may be a lot tougher than so some of the Listed or Group 3 contest even.

The widest draw wasn’t a help for Moracana who was slowly away, perhaps by design. She settled in rear, trailing, and having a lot to do turning for home. She made good progress but behind a wall of horses and repeatedly short of room, until switched to the wide outside inside the final furlong for a strong finish.

She obviously stays strongly, could move up in trip, but perhaps 12 furlongs with a lot of pace are ideal. She could land another of these big handicaps with a better draw, but also up to Listed level and not out of it in a Group 3 possibly.

Race Replay

Saturday, 24/06/2023

4.20 – Hardwicke Stakes:

The “rating horse” won. Maybe Pyledriver isn’t quite the old force anymore but he’s still very good after his long absence. The form looks strong on speed ratings and the runner-up enhanced his credentials significantly in my view.

West Wind Blows took over the lead after the first furlong and from there on set a red hot pace for the first half of the race, especially his third furlong was super hot, and possibly cost him in the finish.

He was slightly hampered by the winner in the closing stages, but in truth had little more to give in the home straight. This should be good form, he ran to a super 103 speed rating, confirming the huge impression he made at Longchamp prior, where he ran to 105.

He gets the trip, just. Over 10 furlongs where he can dominate he’s probably even more dangerous. The Eclipse is an option, possibly even a race like the Irish Champion Stakes could be of real interest.

Race Replay

5.00 – Wokingham Stakes:

Albasheer made up a gigantic amount of ground from last position 2f out to finish like a train in the final furlong. He was slowly into stride, despite first-time blinkers. A tricky sort, and hard to trust, althoug talented when he can put it all together.

Khanjar travelled strongly to the two furlong marker, but got carried over by the eventual winner and as a consequence was a bit short of room, lost his momentum and never found it back. He ran home nicely under an easy ride, though.

He caught the eye prior at Hamilton and looks ready to land a big one. But a tricky sort who can make life difficult for himself, as he was a bit slowly away here as well.

Race Replay

5.35 – Golden Gates Stakes:

Jim Bolger’s only runner during the week was a significant eyecatcher for the fact that the lightly raced colt was still winless after four starts, but did well in hot company and was well backed on the day.

Cuban Dawn had a wide draw and didn’t really settle too well, as he seemed raw and green at the back of the field, at times outpaced, wandering around as well.

He made good progress from 3f out but found himself short of room over 1f out and didn’t get a hard time to run home eventually.

He colt is under the Australian ownership of the Waterhouse/Bolt yard, with the aim to get him over to Australia after this season, as they purchased him for about £300k and have advertised him as one with significant upside.

He was thrown into the deep end on debut in a listed race, when far from disgraced 4th behind Paddington. Placed in two more hot maiden races, his opening mark of 91 looks exploitable.

I think he could drop back to a mile when he has an entry during Irish Derby weekend, if there’s pace.

Race Replay

Betting

Sunday Selections: 25th June 2023

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That was Royal Ascot. A frantic week. I definitely got sucked into more than in preceding years, for better or for worse.

Two big winners clearly helped. Especially as I continue to go through a pretty rotten spell with the ‘bread and butter’ stuff.

Hence it’s positive to see many Ascot selections outran their often big odds. beside the winners Waipiro (12/1) and Royal Champion (33/1), there were plenty of placed ones at big odds (Inquisitively 3rd @ 20/1, Bucanero Forte 3rd @ 19/1, Remarquee 2nd at 33/1).

No good for the P/L as win only backer, but good for the morale. And that’s certainly needed to keep the morale up as Saturday was another hugely disappointing blank, as my handicappers found ways to get beat.

Essme and Huddle Up got close, Shine’s Ambition looked with less than a furlong he may have it. Wasn’t to be. And it weighs on my mind. I know I got way too aggressive this month.

Perhaps it was simply the wrong time for it. Or it was mostly bad luck…. or perhaps lack of good judgement. That’s for another day to determine.

……..

6.45 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

This appears to be a class 3 0-90 in the name only. It’s a big field, but not a competitive race. The pace scenario and draw takes more than half the the field out in addition.

I wouldn’t be too sure whether Rathbone could truly deliver in a proper class 3 Handicap these days, but he showed clear signs of a revival the last two times and has fallen to a tasty mark.

He’s one you’d hope can go forward from a solid #6 draw – this year he has shown better early gate speed, so I’m hoping he’ll do the same today.

Eight days ago his run at York in a competitive Handicap was certainly a highly encouraging performance.

Rathbone showed excellent early speed, was quick through the first four furlongs before gradually tiering. He was probably advantaged by riding on the far side, but still did very well to stay in front for long, before going backwards from 1 furlong out.

The preceding 3rd place effort at Doncaster was also a strong effort as he was significantly quicker through the first four furlongs than the winner and runner-up.

Both forms stand up and look strong. He lost another couple of pounds, down to 79 – he won off 90 and ran to a 86 speed rating last summer still. Most likely he’s not quite as good these days but with conditions to suit and a track and pace scenario putting him possibly at an advantage today he’s on a dangerous mark.

10pts win – Rathbone @ 10/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #5

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.

Spartan Arrow
05/06/23 – 5.15 Windsor:

Touched rival soon after the start, lit up as a consequence and seriously keen for most of the race. Was still going strongly on the bridle over 2f out but got stuck behind a wall of horses. Delayed effort, switched to the inside eventually and ran on strongly, although appeared awkward still.

Clearly talented and better than current mark. Was heavily bumped lto at York too, when seemingly coming with a challenge. Tricky sort who will need a pace to chase.

Race Replay

Captain Vallo
05/06/23 – 4.00 Thirsk:

Widest draw away from favourable stands’ side. Travelled strongly prominently in his group, excellent progress before getting tired in the last half furlong.

Superb comeback run. Not tremendously well-handicapped. But 6f on decent to fast ground in an easier race could be interesting, or else worth to wait for a drop by a couple of pounds.

Race Replay

Harry The Haggler
06/06/23 – 5.30 Lingfield:

Wide draw, had to settle off the pace. Travelled well, good progress over 2f out but had a lot to do. Finished much the best.

Winner in the making, if the handicapper doesn’t react harshly. Excuse Windsor on heavy going. Strong form prior at Lingfield behind well-handicapped winner.

Lightly raced and could still offer more going up in trip as well to try a mile.

Race Replay

Ignac Lamar
06/06/23 – 5.05 Leicester:

Quickly forward, led as part of duo on far side. Gutsy and only went down fighting late. Seriously strong form on speed ratings and form of winner and second.

Possibly better on AW. Down to latest AW winning mark currently and of interest if turned out soon on sand, though also turf not out of it, ideally 6f, may not totally get 7f. Didn’t have many realistic opportunities over 6f on turf.

Race Replay

Lola’s Moment
06/06/23 – 5.45 Wetherby:

Slightly sluggish away but quickly found her stride and moved forward to track a hard pace. Eventually led from 2f out until approaching the final furlong. Briefly accepted challenge before she ran out of gas for good.

Comeback after a break since September 2022. Looks potentially exposed but may be capable o progressing as a 3yo. Sprint trips look hers.

She’s a full-sister to recent 5.5f winner Alfred Cove (OR57). She should drop further in her mark and may be underestimated over fast five with a good draw.

Race Replay

Ricksen
06/06/23 – 8.30 Wetherby:

Led, though pestered. Travelled full of enthusiasm. Challenged from over 2f out on both sides but kept going strongly and came back for more in the final furlong.

Winner and second were probably well-handicapped, therefore the form has some substance.

7f may be ideal as he can be keen. Could be well able to win one of these low grade races in a race with little pace competition. On a fair mark.

Race Replay

Marksman Queen
07/06/23 – 7.50 Kempton:

Sluggish start, travelled well off the pace. Held together until about 2f out. Strong response when asked for effort as she cam home much the best over the last two furlongs in particular.

The hood may took off some of her early excitement. She was keen prior, when winning twice on the All-Weather. She may have options to move up in trip, but a strongly run mile looks ideal for now.

Given her breeding it’s fair to assume she will improve for switching to turf on fast ground. Remains to be seen how much she has in hand, but intriguing in those conditions.

Race Replay

Beccara Rose
07/06/23 – 7.50 Kempton:

Bit slowly away, soon recovered to race about in midfield. Kicked on well over two furlongs out to finish second fast over the last three furlongs.

Looks possibly well-handicapped if she switches back to turf on decent ground. Didn’t seem to enjoy cut in the ground this year and doesn’t seem to have an overly pronounced knee action and her full-sister (highest OR 91) did all her winning on good to form.

Was a strong 4th behind Soul Sister on debut – in soft – last year, though. Should be capable to move up in trip, as well.

Race Replay

The Cruising Lord
07/06/23 – 3.45 Newbury:

Showed good early speed. Kicked well over 2f out. Got tired approaching the final furlong. Excellent return off a long break. Down to a sexy mark if still with appetite.

Not as good as in the past but should be able to improve from this run and looks capable of winning off current 70 OR.

Especially interesting down to 5f again. Best over minimum trip on fast ground, although also capable to act on softer. Probably want to see ideal conditions these days.

Ran really well over 6f nto at Salisbury for a long time in a good race.

Race Replay

Dynamite Katie
07/06/23 – 4.20 Newbury:

Set off at a rapid clip. She ran the first four furlongs faster than the preceding 6f Handicap and the first three furlongs faster than all the other sprint races on the same card, while racing over 7 furlongs herself. She never was likely to get home.

This was her handicap debut and first time on turf. She may have been outclassed here anyway. 7f is a stretch in Handicap company I reckon. A drop to 6f on decent ground could be interesting.

Race Replay

Le Brok Cafe
07/06/23 – 2.00 Newbury:

Rapid start, excellent early speed. Goin okay to 3f out before under pressure. Fell away quickly. Ran better than the price. Probably good form.

Only second career-run. Will be interesting once she qualified for a mark, perhaps mostly as she drops to the minimum trip as well.

Race Replay

Pearle D’or
08/06/23 – 6.40 Yarmouth:

Quickly established lead. Enjoyed the front, kicked on well from 2f out and broke the hearts of most, bar a strong winner who stayed on strongly from off the pace.

2nd start of new yard, changed hands for 40k. Showed some promise in Ireland and may have more to offer on decent ground. May not be out of question he stays 7f either.

Has ran at Hamilton in the meantime. And odd ride, which I’m prepared to forgive.

Race Replay

Lordsbridge Girl
08/06/23 – 8.40 Yarmouth:

Good start, tracked the early pace, ever so slightly disadvantaged by the shifting leader early on. Badly shot of room from over 2f out all the way to the final furlong practically, where she ran home strongly.

Huge run. In line with what she showed on the AW. A mile is absolute maximum. Probably best over 7f with pace but fast ground a mile not out of it. She’s still quite unexposed on turf.

Excellent nto run with strong speed rating. Made effort on the outside away from the rail which didn’t seem ideal on the day. Likely strong form.

Race Replay

Bell Song
08/06/23 – 8.50 Chelmsford:

Had the widest draw to overcome. Didn’t get in and was caught wide approaching the turn and had to move forward for a slightly improved position. Impressive how she was able to kick and stay well to the line despite all the trouble.

Handicap debut, looks capable to win off her mark, especially based on her seasonal reappearance at Southwell, which was seriously strong form. A strong pace over 7f should help. Unexposed on turf.

Ran an unfortunate race at Sandown in the meantime. Did well in the circumstances and better than that.

Race Replay

Khanjar
08/06/23 – 3.35 Hamilton:

Slowly away and right away at a disadvantage, multiplied by his draw ad racing wide away from the usually more favoured stands’ side. Made great progress but ultimately had too much to do. Ran 4 (+ equal in one) of 6 furlongs faster than the eventual winner.

Can’t be harshly assessed for this and remains of interest. Didn’t run quite a speed ratings in the 90s but looks capable. Bit unfortunate in some of the bigger Handicaps.

Ran better at York on his seasonal debut than bare result. Strong, galloping sort who stays well up a stiff finish.

Race Replay

Lady Lade
09/06/23 – 1.40 Thirsk:

Clear disadvantage being drawn low and away from the pace. After a solid start lost quickly a lot of ground, about 7 lengths behind the leader 3f out.

Made tremendous progress against the bias and finished much the best over the last 3f, although paid a bit of tribute in the closing stages to a strong mid-race splits.

Only won once in handicap company, off 68 last year, ran to 66 speed rating. becomes quite competitive now off a revised mark.

Race Replay

Mrs Trump
09/06/23 – 3.10 Thirsk:

Tough from the #1 draw, moved quickly toward the centre. Bit short of room when a gap closed and she had to delay her effort and be switched. Ran very well given the circumstances.

Clearly in strong form. Ran a huge race last time at Ripon and had excuses at Southwell, too. Still a maiden but dangerous once she gets a good draw.

Race Replay

Wedgewood
09/06/23 – 2.00 Brighton:

Badly bumped soon after the start, still moved rapidly forward and let first 2-3f at a fast pace. Gradually tired.

Ran better than bare performance lto too. Finished tired last two now, maybe needs a small break. Interesting afterwards. off possibly revised mark over 5f on turf still, may not stay 6f, also may be better on AW but could be capable on turf too.

Won seriously well when last seen on AW and ran a good race at Windsor in a really hot Handicap in the meantime.

Race Replay

Fragrence
10/06/23 – 6.55 Chepstow:

Blistering early speed, led by a couple of lengths. Gradually tired. Small field but very strong race with rivals in good form.

Ran to multiple speed ratings last season that suggest she is capable off her revised 60 mark. Dangerous in the easier race where she can lead on decent ground over 5f.

Race Replay

Raasel
10/06/23 – 1.15 Haydock:

Probably not quite advantaged by having to make his effort on the widest outside against the far rail after travelling well held up until over 2f out. Made huge progress thanks to fastest furlong two out, before getting understandably tired late.

Huge run, still run fastest the last 3f. Can be forgiven previous Haydock run due to severe draw bias and ran well on his seasonal reappearance. Could be underestimated next time.

Not disgraced in hot Group 1 at Royal Ascot in the meantime.

Race Replay

El Caballo
10/06/23 – 3.35 Haydock:

Slightly awkward start. Tracked the pace in third, was going well and waiting to make a challenge from three furlongs out. Couldn’t get a run on the inside, was several times short of room and hampered 1f out. Finished easy on the eye.

Excellent run and may have gone closer with clear run. Not sure he truly stays 7f at this level on turf, but chance given on fast ground. Probably better over 6f. Obviously superb on sand, but may be underestimated on turf.

Race Replay

Royal Charter
10/06/23 – 4.10 Haydock:

Seriously keen when held up early on. Was going okay and kept up to work from over 3f out, but route to progress closed until over 1f out behind horses as she was also hanging to the left. Finished much the best.

Strong seasonal reappearance. Obviously more to come. Does stay 7f no problems. Needs to settle better and follow a strong pace. Drop to 6f not out of question, either.

Race Replay

Ascot Adventure
10/06/23 – 2.40 Beverley:

Moved quickly forward to push a strong pace as part of a duo. Rolled down the hill, quite inefficient sectionals. Was able to actually kick on somewhat in the home straight once again. Impressive, before getting tired late.

Huge run. Joint career-2nd best speed rating (78). 7.5f stretches his stamina. Best over 7f, ground independent. Also 6f with plenty of cut possible.

Down to good mark. Any additional help from the handicapper a bonus as he looks in top form in the right race.

Was seriously disappointing at Thirsk in the meantime. However, deserves another chance as the ground turned that day and the race developed into a strange one down the stands’ rail.

Race Replay

Swinging Eddie
10/06/23 – 3.20 Catterick:

Great early pace. Led early on, but always pressured. Did way too much in the first half of the race and did extremely well to finish as well as he did.

In superb form this year. Ran to 61 speed rating when winning at Beverley. Possibly a touch better on decent ground. Down to fair mark and capable of winning still. Ran to better speed ratings last season and looks in similar form.

Race Replay

Physique
11/06/23 – 1.35 Goodwood:

Caught wide and without cover from the highest draw. Couldn’t get in until halfway through the race. Gelding was clearly lit up and his chances decimated by then. Got ever so slightly impeded by a tiering front-runner from 2f out before he finished the fastest over the last two furlongs regardless.

Fair to say with a better draw and run he would have won. Lightly raced, has scope off his current mark as he should be should be already a 95+ horse.

Has shown he handles fast ground without a problem. Should have options to stay a mile but maybe too keen at this stage of his career.

Ran a big race for a long time in a hot Handicap at Royal Ascot in the meantime. Maybe didn’t quite get home over the stiff mile there.

Race Replay

First Ruler
11/06/23 – 4.25 Goodwood:

Trailed the small field. Looked a bit awkward around the home turn, probably not helped that the pace increased significantly at that point. Niggled and reminder received and had to made progress right into the fastest part of the race, no advantage from off the pace. Ran home strongest.

Return run. Deserves and upgrade. Ran a 91 speed rating in Meydan when winning over 12f. and seems still progressive with age and maturity.

Stays the trip obviously, but would love to see him over 10f with a fast pace to chase. Could bring out improvement and maybe good enough to land a Group 3. Didn’t have many opportunities of that sort.

Race Replay

Mattice
11/06/23 – 3.45 Beverley:

Started quickly, did a lot in the first three furlongs to grab the lead and stay there. Tired badly in the final furlong. Strong run, competitive race.

Comes slowly down in ratings and class. Ran often in ultra-competitive races. Looks capable still, certainly in an easier race, where he can dominate.

Race Replay

Winter Crown
11/06/23 – 5.15 Beverley:

Second widest draw, caught wide early, then caught behind a wall of horses. Had to delay his run and fight for a gab to finally get out in the clear, re-organise himself with less than a furlong to go to run home strongly.

Was unfortunate from a poor draw, away from the pace, and short of room lto as well. Clearly better than OR 76. Should be hard to beat if moving back up to 6f, but a stiff 5f seem fine too. Fast ground no issue.

Race Replay

La Roca Del Fuego
12/06/23 – 5.08 Windsor:

Started quickly, led against the inside rail, under pressure as he stayed there while main bunch went away from the inside. Weakened rapidly. Rain and ground probably turned against him.

Better on AW and definitely needs fast ground on turf. Was well-backed here, and ran with plenty of credit from the front lto. Down to dangerous mark on turf and sand over 5f.

Race Replay

Dulcet Sprit
12/06/23 – 4.30 Lingfield:

Moved forward to grab the lead and led by a couple of lengths setting a good, honest, even pace. Was much faster through the first half than the eventual winner and second. Showed good attitude right to the line.

First time on turf, definitely looks like one who enjoys fast ground. Wasn’t expected, and neither in her last starts. Won well off 58 on the AW and should come down to intriguing mark on turf as well, especially in a race where she can dominate.

Wouldn’t be out of it if she drops to 6f in a race with not much pace to compete. Ideally see her drop below a mark off 58.

Race Replay

Get Off Me
12/06/23 – 5.00 Lingfield:

Started alright, got to the rail and led, did more than the rest in a hotly contested run. Excellent 4f performance before tired badly, although quite understandable given the early exertions.

Followed on nicely from huge run lto on the AW when he finished seriously strongly in a hot race for the grade, after missing the break. Can be sluggish at the start. Maybe headgear can help.

Looks to have pace for the minimum trip certainly. Huge runner if he drops back in grade with a solid start.

Race Replay

Grant Wood
12/06/23 – 8.30 Pontefract:

Wide draw, slowly away, perhaps by design. Settled in rear, trailing as the field turned for home. Loads to do but kept answering calls and accelerated well making solid progress against the inside. Not quite clear run over 1f out and jockey seemed happy enough to concede defeat.

Wasn’t in it to go close. Changed yards. Seasonal reappearance. Should come one and probably be better over 7f. Ran 72 speed rating last year. Up in trip and some money in the betting will tell whether the handbrake is off.

Race Replay

Jimmy Lifestyle
13/06/23 – 3.10 Salisbury:

Covered up early, tried to unwind for challenge from over 3f out on the outside which seemed a difficult place to come from. Didn’t get overly hard ride and ran on well to the line.

Looks a big lad and may improve with racing. Up in trip to 7f could be interesting of a revised mark as he may not quite have the speed for 6f.

Race Replay

Sam’s Call
15/06/23 – 4.20 Nottingham:

Not ideally drawn and slightly bumped by rival out of the gate. Not ideally placed behind horses and short of room 2f out, had to switch ever so slightly, lost momentum, before running home strongly. Finished 3 of last 4 furlongs faster than well-handicapped winner. Good form.

Can hit flat spot in the middle of his races. Best over 5f. Down to dangerous mark, although not prolific and doesn’t deserve many chances.

Race Replay

Rum Cocktail
15/06/23 – 7.10 Haydock:

Travelled in rear before making ever so slightly progress while niggled covered up behind a wall of horses, never seemed to be entirely happy. Bulldozed her way through a gap from 2f out, shifted, slightly unbalanced before galvanized to mount challenge.

Finished joint best last 3f. Bit unlucky to finish only 3rd. Down to good mark. Ran solid speed ratings this year already. Dangerous over minimum trip on decent ground, but 6f could be worth a try and unlock improvement too.

Race Replay

Azazat
16/06/23 – 6.35 Cork:

Close up with the pace, tracked the leader. Was going well, but got stuck behind the first two from 3f out which gave the eventual winner the opportunity for a decisive move. Switched 2f out and found plenty for pressure.

Unfortunate, but strong form. Excellent 96 speed rating which gives her a crack at Graded race. Still lightly enough race to see some improvement that would see her competitive against the better 3yo fillies over 12f.

Race Replay

Tafreej
17/06/23 – 3.20 Chester:

Not ideally drawn and bit slowly away, confined to the rear of the field. Got unbalanced around the home turn as she was also short of room until hitting the straight. Ran home the fastest.

Still unexposed and looks certainly ready to move up in trip. The dam won over 1m 4f. Interesting over a mile at least, and offers potential off 84.

Race Replay

Rathbone
17/06/23 – 5.25 York:

Excellent early speed, was quick through the first four furlongs before gradually tiering. He was probably advantaged by riding on the far side, but still did very well to stay in front for long.

This was a competitive race. Ran well in good Handicap lto. Clearly back in form and could win in a less competitive race and a front-runner track. Won off 90 and ran to 86 speed rating last summer. Maybe not quite as good these days but on a dangerous mark.

Race Replay

Tees George
18/06/23 – 5.00 Doncaster:

Bumped early on by a rival. Settled in rear. Was able to answer the accelerations after a pedestrian opening, and ran on well on the outside, easily under hands and heels in the final furlong.

Should certainly for a step up in trip. 7-8f probably no issue at all on pedigree. Still lightly raced and mark 0f 60 offers opportunities.

Race Replay

Betting

Friday Selections: 23rd June 2023

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Waipiro delivered the goods. He won with so much in hand – I was hopeful he’d be too good for this field with a clear run, but this performance was a surprise, especially given the way the race panned out.

He definitely did it the hard way. It didn’t look like it would happen for a long time. A bad bump by a rival soon after the start, lit up, far off the pace, didn’t seem to travel well, the gap wasn’t opening…. until it magically did and whoosh off he was, never to be seen again by his rivals.

Let’s not forget what a huge eyecatcher he was in the Derby, and also how well he ran twice earlier this season. A drop to 10 furlongs, with a good pace… he was always to go close if he could get a run.

Not unhappy with Physique. He was right there for a long time. He faded in the final furlong, but that’s okay. It was a run for the money and a big price.

Good week overall; yet, longing for a “normal” winner in some random class 5 or 6 Handicap as well. Tomorrow?

…….

4.20 Ascot: Coronation Stakes, 1m

It’s hard, if not even impossible to oppose Tahiyra after her sensation performance in the Irish 1000 Guineas where she quickened away like a true superstar.

That performance wasn’t quite as strong on speed figures as it was visually, but the Dermot Weld trained filly produced a career-best and excellent 104 speed rating at Newmarket in the British equivalent last month.

She’s clearly extremely talented, at the same time possibly vulnerable given this is her third Group 1 in the space of six weeks on the quickest ground she has ever encountered.

Dermot Weld was on the record saying prior to the 1000 Guineas that he felt the filly could have done with an additional two weeks of preparation. Has she been rushed to run twice in this short space of time?

There are dangers here, also from a tactical point of view. On the round course it can be an advantage to make all or be certainly close to the pace. You would think Mediate could be in a prime spot when turning for home. Runner-up at the Curragh, this race could be run to suit her perfectly.

That says, bar Meditate, there is little opposition likely good enough to match a Tahiyra, even if not quite at her peak. Unless one of the other fillies in the race can step up significantly.

The one I would have hopes to improve significantly with experience is Remarquee. She was a huge disappointment at Newmarket, where she didn’t seem happy at any stage and found zero once under pressure.

But I can’t shake off the huge impressions she gave in her first two career runs, once on debut last year at Salisbury when she finished like a train, and no less so at Newbury in the Fred Darling two weeks ago.

She looked raw and green on both occasions. The speed figures weren’t strong, but her finishing speed screams talent. The better ground is intriguing. Even though her two wins came on soft, I have the feeling decent ground can bring out more improvement.

Prior to the Guineas Ralph Beckett was quite hopeful that he would have a potential star filly on his hands. There is still the potential for her to turn out and become a proper Group 1 filly.

Whether the race is going to be run to suit remains to be seen. Nonetheless, at the given prices she’s worth a shot at this.

10pts win – Remarquee @ 33/1

……

5.00 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

Coppice is an intriguing filly, and one from my horses to follow list this season. There’s every chance she’s well handicapped off 97 after her successful return to form in a Novice Stakes where she made amends for a disappointing defeat in the Nell Gwyn.

She hasn’t achieved any speed rating of note yet, and I’m not yet convinced that she truly gets a mile when the pace is on.

This test in a large field and with a stiff finish doesn’t strike me as the right one, especially as she can be slowly away as well. She’s certainly too short to back.

The pace side should be the stands’ side, with high numbers likely to dominate. That brings a filly into play that caught the eye earlier this month at Kempton.

Marksman Queen finished seriously well in a Handicap there over a mile, nearly overcoming a sluggish start as she travelled well off the pace was held together until about 2f out before showing a strong response when asked for an effort to come home much the best.

She couldn’t quite get back to the 4-year-old winner, who ran well for a long time in the Kensington Palace earlier this week.

She wasn’t slowly away in any of her two starts prior, hence I hope it was just ‘one of those days’. A poor start would severely compromise her chances in this competitive field.

But if she gets way well, then she could be very well handicapped, off 86, only 2lb higher than at Kempton. She won well at Southwell on her seasonal reappearance as well.

I reckon that perhaps the hood took off some of her early excitement at Kempton. She was keen in her previous races. Hopefully she is better used to it now.

Given her breeding Marksman Queen may have options to move up in trip, but a strongly run mile looks ideal for now. She should also improve for switching to turf on fast ground.

10pts win – Marksman Queen @ 15/1

……..

5.35 Ascot: Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes, 1m 4f

King Of Steel ran a massive race in the Derby on his seasonal reappearance and a return to that level of form will see him certainly with a prime chance. Can he repeat such a tremendous run?

Different track, different pace scenario, stiff finish. And he got the splits when needed, having enjoyed the near perfect race. He was clearly beaten by a brilliant horse on the day, and the same opposition isn’t present here.

But taking into account that this is going to be a totally different type of race, one can question his odds-on price tag. Also, I am not sold that he would stay a properly run 12 furlongs, especially with a stiff finish.

Also: on speed ratings he ran to a fine treble digit figure of 100. But the Aiden O’Brien trained Continuous achieve a 99 speed figure at York in the Dante over a trip possibly slightly short of his optimum when he also needed the run, most likely.

Continuous is one my horses to follow this year and I can forgive him that poor French Derby run. He didn’t have any real excuses, other than that it was a competitive renewal. So wellbeing is taken with some question marks attached.

Ryan Moore remains quite positive whenever he speaks about Continuous, so that’s certainly noteworthy. There should be more to come, given he didn’t have an ideal spring preparation, and strikes me as a relentless galloper who should enjoy Ascot.

The other one I do like is Artistic Star. I liked him for the Derby, and even though things didn’t work out on the day or him, the inexperienced colt showed great promise in the second half of his race.

After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.

Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.

He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.

I’ll split my stake here: I really only can see three horses to win. Those are the aforementioned. Because Arrest over 12 furlongs, fast ground, stiff finish, looks not the test to suit him.

5pts win – Continuous @ 15/2
5pts win – Artistic Star @ 11/2

…….

1.50 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Fiftyshadesofred was rather unfortunate the other day at Catterick when he missed the start somewhat, as he can do, got behind and stuck on the inside rail and found himself badly short of room at a crucial stage over 3 furlongs out.

He ran pretty well in the circumstances and confirmed the excellent performance shown weeks earlier at Ayr.

That day he overcame a sluggish start and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. He found plenty under pressure and was only beaten late by two rivals from off the pace.

Before that he didn’t stay a mile but two runs back ran seriously well at Chelmsford over 7 furlongs. That looks his trip, and the fact he ran to 65 and 64 speed ratings now the last two times over this trip, on two different surfaces, gives his form credibility.

Another pound down, he looks seriously well-handicapped off 64, as he ran to a 65 speed rating at Ayr, in line with another 64 at Chelmsford in April.

This straight track may suit him better than sharp turning tracks. The field is competitive but with the 5lb claim of Connor Planas he should have too much in hand.

10pts win – Fiftyshadesofred @ 4/1

…….

5.16 Redcar: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

A race for maidens. Some of the higher rated horses make appeal as this is easier for them. But I’m intrigued by Lola’s Moment, who knocked on the door a few times before and ran a huge race last time at Wetherby.

She was slightly sluggish away but quickly found her stride and moved forward to track a hard pace. Eventually she took up the lead from the 2 furlongs marker until she got heavily challenged from over one furlong out.

She briefly accepted the challenge before she ran out of gas and faded away.

This was her comeback run after a break since September 2022. The filly looks potentially exposed but may be capable of progressing as a 3yo. Sprint trips look her game.

She’s a full-sister to recent 5.5f winner Alfred Cove (OR57). As she now drops to a similar rating she may be underestimated over a fast five with a good draw that she has got here.

10pts win – Lola’s Moment @ 10/1

………….

7.50 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

I firmly believe this is Latin Five’s for the taking. He is in excellent form, as evidence by his last two runs. Especially last time out at Nottingham he ran to a level of form that should see him hard to beat here if he can repeat.

He travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by a horse on the stands’ side.

The acceleration mid-race was quite something, for this level. He also achieved a 53 speed rating. He ran to 51 and 54 this season as well, so that 1lb hike doesn’t make too much of a difference.

He’s certainly well handicapped on last-years form. Now clearly back in form he’s the one to beat with a good draw to attack from as well.

10pts win – Latin Five @ 7/2