Tag Archives: All-Weather

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 28th May 2024

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3.45 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

Ten Furlongs, fast ground, an easier grade, blinkers back on: this looks an ideal opportunity for Night Bear to score again.

He ran well over the last number of weeks, either third or fourth in his last four starts. He was eye-catching at Lingfield two back, and also the way he showed an excellent attitude when under pressure last time at Kempton.

I feel Night Bear is a better horse over 10f, in fact three of his four career wins come over that trip and all came on fast ground. He’s usually up with the pace, not a negative at Brighton on fast ground and he should enjoy the uphill finish today.

There is plenty of competition for the pace, but that may ensure this is going to be an honest race and I feel this will help him more than anything.

The money is coming this morning and the sexy prices are certainly gone. But I’m happy to enough to back him at what’s left there, as this looks a golden opportunity for Night Bear.

10pts win – Night Bear @ 9/2

…….

7.10 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Beauld As Brass seriously caught the eye last time at Brighton coming off a near year-long break. The potential bounce factor may be an issue, but he may strip fitter today at the same time as it seemed tiredness, possibly not being fully tuned up on the day, that saw him fall back to 4th, eventually.

He burned through the first half of the race, setting a hot pace as part of a duo and then looked a bit awkward in the finish at Brighton. I reckon he could come on for the run, and if he does will have a big chance today.

6 furlongs on the sand are fine. He’s been eased another pound, 3lb above his last winning mark. However, back then he also achieved a career-best 63 speed rating.

He’s got form on the All-Weather and should be suited by Lingfield today, given his usual positive racing style. He’s drawn right beside Lilkian, who surely will move forward, and may push the pace with Agostino, who has to cross over from his wide #10 draw, though.

That may shape like an ideal scenario, as Beauld As Brass can track in touching distance and pounce in the home straight. There may not be too much else get involved here, I feel, with the rest possibly too far back at that point.

Rob Havlin has been booked, which I take as a positive. And the yard also seems to hit some form of late.

10pts win – Beauld As Brass @ 7/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 23rd May 2024

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7.17 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Two I like: Jungle Hill was an obvious eyecatcher last time at Wolverhampton. A course and distance winner off his current mark, he’s a big chance. He moves ever so slightly up in class, and with that in mind he’s a short enough price.

I’m more interested in Kessaar Power, who entered my notebook back in March when he caught the eye over a wrong trip at Southwell. He had excuses for the somewhat lesser runs subsequently, although didn’t help his cause with sluggish starts.

That’s a clear danger today. If that happens he’ll be beaten within the first hundred yards. At the same time I’m prepared to take the risk because he’s usually seen up front, has the #1 draw to attack the race from and is seriously well-handicapped, in theory.

This course and distance brought the best out of him in the past. A 4-1-1 record, and his most recent run here was better than the bare form suggests.

Down to a mark of 57, with the solid assistance of 3lb claiming Grace McEntee, the gelding looks ready for the big run. He’s also entered for Yarmouth next week, the flat course he’s been most effective at, suggesting connections may believe the 5-year-old is certainly ready to go close.

10pts win – Kessaar Power @ 11/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 22nd May 2024

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Finally a winner! The wait was long… and painful. What a nightmare over the last weeks. Thankfully Dion Baker managed to fight gamely to get his head in front when it mattered most in a thriller of a race at Brighton yesterday afternoon.

He went off a 5/2 favourite. The 4/1 I got were good value; though, of course, nothing to shout about if you burned through last years profits as quickly as I normally do through a pack of Tuc Crackers. Hopefully things turn for the better from now on….

……..

8.00 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Giant looks a different horse since his gelding last October. The 4-year-old showed glimpses of ability in the past, but was often too keen for his own good.

Since his reappearance at Kempton in March, where he won in impressive style from the front and achieved a career-best speed rating as well, he was able to follow-up with two more highly credible performances.

Earlier this months, once again at Kempton, he caught the eye in no uncertain terms and that performance suggested he could still be a handful of pounds ahead of his current mark, despite a subsequent rise by 2lb. That may prove lenient, though, given he was only beaten by a head and somewhat unfortunate that day.

Nearly taken out by a badly veering rival right out of the gates, he couldn’t get to lead, but got going quickly again and tracked the hot pace. Inside the final three furlongs he was switched left for effort, appeared flat footed for a few strides, before showing a superb attitude battling hard to the line.

He was only beaten by Thapa Vc, who was extremely well-handicapped that day, and who avoided the red hot early pace, sitting in midfield (goes today, too, may struggle from off the pace today).

No question, today is a deep enough race. Brasil Power with preferred headgear combination and back in form looks potentially ominous. Rajindri loves this CD, and could find herself nicely towed into the home straight. Zero Carbon drops in grade and showed good form lately.

However, none of them appear overly well-handicapped, in my view. Hence what speaks for Giant, beside that he appears still on the up and therefore likely better than a current 82 Official Rating, is his good low draw, and a pace scenario that will suit, for this naturally forward gelding.

An easy lead may or may not be on the cards, but other potential pace setters can be hit an miss with their efforts to lead and only Zero Carbon, drawn right beside Giant, may provide the only real competition.

Given he should have it easy moving forward, whether leading, or perhaps following closely, with Oisin Murphy in the saddle you can expect a proper run, especially over this course and distance (4-1-3).

The price, in fairness, is skinny enough, and right on the edge for me, as my strike rate tends to be poor, comparably to what it should be, at the lower end of prices.

Saying that I was happy enough to see 4’s able to get matched completely this morning and I’d have him about a point shorter, if I had to price up the race, simply because he’s the most rock solid, in-form selection, who’ get his race and may still be ahead of his mark.

10pts win – Giant @ 4/1 SM

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 14th May 2024

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3.15 Beverley: Class 6 Handicap: 5f

Digital has been running quite well in two of his runs this season, since coming back from a break and having changed yards over the winter.

A strong third, without getting overly beaten up in the closing stages in 0-85 class was yet another indicator of his wellbeing. He achieved a good speed rating, too.

That came after a disappointing 9/10 at Kempton – however over 6f, from a wide enough draw, where he was pulling hard and not getting to the lead.

His seasonal reappearance, however, rates strongly. At Southwell in March he moved keenly forward from the widest draw. Set a good pace that contributed to some good speed figures achieved in the race. He showed good a good attitude before getting really tired.

The Southwell and most recent Wetherby run give the impression he’s not far off last years form, when he achieved solid 71 and 70 speed ratings, although also fell from a mark 0f 90 to 76.

Digital isn’t the force of old but judged on those last runs has found his current level and could have a couple of pounds in hand now, especially as he drops down to 0-72 level.

He’s got the #2 draw (effectively the #1 due to a non-runner) to attack the race from. Minimum trip and fast ground are fine, although he’s got to shoulder top-weight and may not get his own way completely up front.

Nonetheless, the advantage of his low draw, having the rail to guide him, usually is an advantage over this course and distance.

10pts win – Digital @ 11/2

………

5.50 Killarney: Conditions Race, 1m

Alpheratz sets quite a high standard for this race. Her unlucky second at the Curragh in March, followed up by a fair fifth at Leopardstown, both Group 3 form that has worked out well in the meantime, should give her a cracking chance today.

Saying that, the ground is a good deal quicker than the deep ground she encountered in all her four career runs to date, that’s a significant question mark.

Agha Khan filly Tannola could be smart. She won well when last seen and will surely enjoy moving up to a mile. She remains in the Irish 1000 Guineas for now and offers plenty of upside.

For all that, she didn’t run particularly fast on speed ratings in any of three career runs and she may also enjoy deeper ground.

Obviously Uluru is the most intriguing one, not only because she’s one of my horses to follow this season.

The filly was mightily impressive on her racecourse debut at Gowran Park last summer: from a wide draw where she didn’t get too well away at the start but eventually ran away with it and clocked an excellent 81 speed rating.

That’s the sign of a potentially smart individual. No surprise, she changed hands afterwards and was desperately unlucky for new owners, Team Valor, in her final start last season.

In a big sales race at Naas it wasn’t a good pace and she got stuck in traffic without a way to get out. She still managed to finish well enough to get him in 4th place.

No question she looks capable of turning into a stakes filly this year. She was in a race at Naas at the beginning of the season, though didn’t take up that engagement. Race fitness is a question. She’s never encountered this type of ground, either.T

But there’s plenty of faster ground form in her pedigree and moving up to a mile is a clear positive. The 7lb claim of Wayne Hassett is intriguing and, if she’s race fit, should give her the edge today.

10pts win – Uluru @ 4/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 12th May 2024

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3.30 Longchamp: Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains, 1m

Obviously Henry Longfellow is the one I’m most interested in. One of my horses to follow this year (hardly an original thought, to be fair), he’s got the looks of a potential superstar.

Drawn in #6 the son of Dubawi won’t have many excuses today and I hope he just runs away with it. At the price, it’s hard to justify a bet, in a deep race, though.

Purely from a value perspective I must back Dancing Gemini, who will enjoy a low draw, a prominent racing position and has shown a significant amount of talent as a juvenile as well.

Reportedly having wintered well, connections were deliberate routing their star colt to Longchamp as opposed to Newmarket. Perhaps a wise move, given he should enjoy this test, with the draw and the way the race may pan out a lot better.

The son of Camelot is quite experienced already. Five runs, two wins and he improved significantly for his fist two career runs as well as racing more forward.

He hinted no uncertain amount of talent when sprinting away at Newbury with a first maiden success in August, before romping home in the Scotsman Stakes.

Perhaps committing too early in the Futurity Stakes, Dancing Gemini ran still with plenty of credit in a hot renewal back in October last year.

He’s shown to handle juice in the ground – important today. The step up in trip is sure to suit, given his pedigree, by Camelot and out of a daughter of Australia.

Given this pedigree, it seems noteworthy the tactical speed he showed last year. His talent is underpinned by a fine 73 debut speed rating in June and a strong 99 speed rating when he won at Doncaster.

The exchange prices are way over the top in my view, so I’m happy to back him against the favourite.

10pts win – Dancing Gemini @ 18/1

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4.17 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

With the pace chart somewhat muddling, I feel it can be worth to side with proven and happy front-runner Jean Baptiste, who ran incredibly well from the front a fortnight ago at Ayr to finish a gallant 2nd.

No certainty that he can confirm that strong performance, but back on the sand where some of his best career efforts came over the years, especially this CD (regardless of what the naked record says, on speed ratings he ran really well in higher grades here).

Two pounds up and he loses the valuable claim of Jonny Peate today, compared to Ayr, that’s not ideal. But still 3lb below his last winning mark on turf, and the same 79 rating as when an excellent second two years ago over this course and distance.

Jean Baptiste is value at current prices in my book, well capable to outrun the odds in an open race that lacks quality. He’s drifting, though, which isn’t a good sign for this type of horse, to be fair.

10pts win – Jean Baptiste @ 11.5/1

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3.07 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Favourite Cross The Tracks looks well drawn but not sure why he’s so short, as the drop in trip doesn’t look ideal and he’s 8lb worth off in the weights than last time.

Yes, that came in a hot class 2 Handicap, so he’s shown a bit of class. But not on speed ratings yet. At that price I’m happy to take him on.

Mr Wonderful and Oakland Princess look intriguing opposition here. If race fit, the Amo Racing gelding could prove better than a 77 rating on his handicap debut.

However, I’m most intrigued by the filly, Oakland Princess, who can race here off a feather weight and should have plenty more to offer.

I felt it was significant that she didn’t take up her entry at Nottingham yesterday, in a race I thought she had a strong chance. Instead she comes here.

The filly ran with plenty of credit on her Handicap debut over this course and distance earlier this month. But she didn’t get a clean run through, was badly stopped in her progress at 1.5f from home, but got going again and finished well under hands and heels.

She appeared still raw in the early stages of the race. With the added experience, and hopefully a clear run today, she’s in with a shot. The draw isn’t ideal, away from the early pace, but Sam James shouldn’t have too much trouble to get across quickly to track the lead.

10pts win – Oakland Princess @ 8/1

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5.27 Newcastle: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

It seems worth to take a chance on Curran in an open race back over the course and distance of his very first career win.

You can forgive his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster in deep ground where he made way too much too soon in any case, in a what was a competitive Handicap, too.

This is easier. There’s competition for the lead from the favourite, but that may well suit, in fact, as Curran can track the pace, as he did when he won twice last year.

Todays run will also be his second after having been gelded over the winter. You’d hope to see a significantly improved performance compared to Doncaster.

10pts win – Curran @ 17/2

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 8th May 2024

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8.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

In the hope Bated Breeze is allowed to run on merit today, he looks seriously overpriced in this race tonight. He met some of these before and is better off in the weights over an identical course and distance.

Most importantly, his two runs this season have been noteworthy. He caught the eye early April over this CD especially, which was backed up by a good speed rating that day as well.

From a wider than ideal gate he was awkwardly away and had to settle in rear, trailing the field, keenly enough. He quickened in visually arresting style from 3f out right into the fastest part of the race. He couldn’t quite get back to the leaders who enjoyed the run of the race, though.

Those first two home ran good speed ratings and were clearly well-handicapped on their handicap debuts. Bated Breeze also ran a 62 speed rating and I felt that performances warranted a chunky upgrade, which could mean he’s potentially well-handicapped off 64.

Fancied at Bath the next time, he didn’t run without merit in a seriously strong race, I thought. He couldn’t keep up the red hot pace after travelling strongly behind the leader until 2f out.

A #1 draw today offers options to move forward, as he did the last time. He’ll have to be at his best out of the gate as some pace pressure is expected to move right across from the wider gates.

If that works out well, the gelding should be in a perfect position and can race just off the lead, covered up. Off a mark of 64 he should have pounds in hand today back on the sand.

It’s Tom Queally’s only ride on the card and he was riding well for this yard lately. So that’s a positive, although the betting is the concern I have, with Bated Breeze going the wrong way.

10pts win – Bated Breeze @ 12/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 10th April 2024

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4.10 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

The market is dominated by unexposed horses who may or may not be well-handicapped. It makes the pace scenario also potentially muddling.

I feel in this context of the unknown, the rather well-known Johnston filly is underestimated here, given she’s likely to run a solid standard and has excuses for a 0/7 record.

Flowering’s last two runs were seriously eye-catching, in fact. She made the list on her penultimate run over this course and distance when locked in a pace battle and doing way too much way too soon, as the finishing speed % also suggested.

I think she did well to finish as close as she did to a well-handicapped winner who also enjoyed the run of the race. The run confirmed the promise Flowering showed in her previous Handicap runs, in my view.

However, perhaps even stronger was the impression the filly gave last time over this CD once again. In a slowly run race she found herself in the worst position over 3 furlongs out and got badly hampered entering the final bend, which didn’t help her positioning.

She still finished the race strongly, coming home faster than the winner, despite not being fully ridden in the final half furlong.

Left on the same mark, she should be a strong chance dropping back to 0-60 here. Joe Fanning is back on board and given this yard often goes forward, I doubt they’ll make the same mistake again as last time out and utilise the #3 draw.

This could turn into a slowly run race too, and then Flowering will be in prime position, I hope. Whether 12 furlongs prove her best trip remains to be seen. But unless someone else moves forward and sets a testing gallop, which seems unlikely, she should find this a perfect test.

10pts win – Flowering @ 7/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 8th April 2024

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5.20 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Sydney Bay caught the eye on his return from a break and wind op at this track over 6 furlongs last month.

He travelled off the pace on the outside off the pack, not getting the best of cover there. He seemed outpaced in this grade over this trip 3 furlongs out but also didn’t find the clearest passage before strolling home in eyecatching fashion in the final furlong.

That form looks rock solid and if he can improve for the run with his breathing fine, he should be here on Monday a big runner, for various reasons.

The 5-year-old gelding drops significantly in grade, down to 0-55 class, a race also restricted to horses without a win since the 2023 flat turf season. This is a poor contest, the fact a now 48 rated 10-year-old is one of fancied horses, says it all.

Sydney Bay is much more home on this lowly level, obviously. Saying that, down to a mark of 53, with the excellent help of 5lb claimer William Pyle, he’s probably quite well-handicapped here, if he stays the stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle.

He won off 49 and 51 over 6 furlongs at this venue last October, and did well out of the weights off effectively 56 as a runner-up subsequently and achieved 51 and 52 speed ratings in those winning runs.

Moving up to 7 furlongs should suit, in theory. Ever since this horse came to my attention about two years ago, I thought he’d be much better if he moves to 7f, and possibly further. That hasn’t materialised, in reality, but he stayed on strongly over 6f at this stiff track, has the breeding and tried 6f+ outside maiden company only twice in his career.

Amaysmont and Crocodile Power look solid rivals in this field and both may also enjoy the run of the race toward the stands rail. I hope Sydney Bay will be ridden a bit more forward, though, tracking the pace a couple, as he showed in the past he’s suited to that (31/10/23, career-best performance).

10pts win – Sydney Bay @ 4/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 6th April 2024

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2.50 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

I’m inclined to give ultra-consistent veteran Reverberation a big chance in this race, despite the overall openness of the contest.

He’s one of the few uncomplicated horses in the field, and also highly likely to enjoy the run of the race from a prominent racing position.

That could be crucial today: not too many want to go forward. Some of the contenders are prone to miss the break. Hence, the #11 draw may not be a big deal, as Reverberation is a solid starter and should be able to have an uninterrupted way toward the front of the pack.

Off his current mark he’s handicapped to go well, no doubt. He bumped into a highly progressive winner last time, but ran in line with those performances he showed all winter that suggested he’s got possibly another win in him off 56, in the right circumstances.

The form of his two wins at Chelmsford over a mile and 10 furlongs back in December and January worked out quite well too, ensuring his credentials have real substance.

The 5lb claim of red-hot Joe Leavy should come in handy. He seems a good judge of pace and ridden Reverberation last time as well.

The main danger I thought could be top-weight Lucidity. The light-raced filly could have too much class in this grade, if ready to go on her seasonal reappearance. But the market suggests otherwise, for the now at least, and she’s one to keep an eye on for another day.

Favourite Mc’Ted comes here in good form. He likes this course and distance but he’s handicapped to he’s best form under a 5lb now. Given he can be moody at the start, it’s a risky proposition.

Twilight Guest sees money all morning and is competitive in this grade. 0-17 tells a story, though, and he tends to be seriously keen if the pace is slow.

That always brings me back to Reverberation. The fact he drops ever so slightly down in grade, with a good pace scenario of a fair mark gives him a good chance to score today.

10pts win – Reverberation @ 6/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 29th March 2024

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It’s already a few days ago, but hey, you’ve got to celebrate the winners. It was the first one I could cheer home in a while – granted I had about a handful of bets in the last half year.

Anyway, it was great to see Qitaal win rather comfortably in the end, despite a dramatic drift to 14/1 SP. I was stuck with my 7’s, but that’s no issue at all. Even that represented significant value in my book.

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2.40 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Cephalus looks a seriously poor favourite in this race at such a short price (2/1 at time of writing). He’ll be held up from the #10 draw in a race without much pace and he’s got a bit to find on speed ratings as he’s turned out under a penalty.

The 5-year old improved dramatically over the last weeks and months, winning four and going close twice. This is a different proposition, though, especially off 81 in a race that won’t be run to suit him.

The way the race is likely going to shape, and with his love for the track, Shoot To Kill looks one who may steel this one from the front for Ireland and represents serious value in my mind.

He moved over to Ado McGuinness in early March and ran with plenty of courage in two subsequent starts, both times catching the eye and clearly proving there’s plenty of life in the seven-year-old gelding.

Those were hard races and that’s a bit of a concern. But at the same they may have put him right for this race. He was highly competitive and consistent prior moving to Ireland as well.

Shoot To Kill certainly loves it here at Lingfield. Check out his course record, peel back the first layer and you’ll find a lad who’s ran some huge performances from 7-10 furlongs at this venue not too long ago.

No doubt, his optimum is a mile over this course and distance, though. He won a class 5 Handicap over this CD back in September off 74, running to a 75 speed rating which he franked weeks later over 7 furlongs at the same venue when finishing a strong third.

That mile win looks better than bare form would suggest, given it was only a class 5. His current mark – 78 – with a 3lb claimer in the saddle, gives him a shout over this course and distance, though.

He won a class 3 Handicaps in the past here, and ran his three career-best speed ratings at Lingfield, the two highest over a mile. Taking into account that he looks to hit some good form, it’s not impossible to think he’s able to run to that sort of level again.

But maybe he doesn’t even have to be that good on Friday. The pace should favour those who are ridden forward and it’s unlikely to be overly hot.

Given that, Shoot To Kill should be easily able to overcome the #7 draw and should find himself in prime position as he slings around the final bend.

Shoot To Kill 10pts win – @ 13/1

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3.35 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Not out of question that Cover Up, who’s bidding for a four-timer, can pull out more, even after a hefty 13lb hike for his most recent win at this venue, albeit over the minimum trip.

Though, moving up in trip is a question mark. The dam stayed a mile but her sole victory came over 5 furlongs. He ran a super 90 speed rating last time out. On balance, given he could get a nice lead into the finish as well given his draw and the likely pace, he’s a fair favourite – one that’s beatable, at the same time.

Batal Dubai looks well places from his #9 draw and given there isn’t too much pace competition, could enjoy the run of the race. He’s fairly handicapped, although hardly has much in hand. He always struggled so far to win once he hit the 90s.

Albasheer’s last two winning performances here at Newcastle were brilliant on speed ratings: 102 and 100 – that’s a Group horse. A 110 mark in this type of competitive handicap is also quite a steep task.

He looks well drawn and looks slightly overpriced. I have some question marks because that last huge effort only came a fortnight ago.

The one I feel who’s potentially quite well-handicapped in the context of this race is 7-year-old gelding Misty Grey.

The #5 draw gives him enough options to get a good, prominent position early on, tracking the pace, wherever it develops, given he has a bit of early speed as well.

He clearly showed a return to form in two runs earlier this month after he moved to the David O’Meara yard. The second of those runs came on the 9th of March, hence that hopefully is enough time to recover.

I felt both runs were eyecatching and warranted a slight upgrade, as much as they also suggested a mark off 96 might underestimate him at this point in his career.

At Wolverhampton in a 7f Listed race last time out Misty Grey had to give weight away to higher rated horses and it wasn’t ideal to concede first run to the eventual winner at 2f out, at the most crucial part of that race.

Days earlier at Newcastle, again over 7f, he pulled hard early on and basically tanked his way to the front. He travelled sweetly for a long time before coming under pressure and possibly also got ever so slightly impacted by a faller around the final furlong marker.

Both runs suggested he could do with a drop to stiff 6f…. hello Newcastle I hear you calling? This is his third run since a break and since moving to the David O’Meara yard and he should be primed what will only bis his second run over 6f in over a year – the last time he finished an excellent third in a hot Kempton Conditions race.

The grey gelding wasn’t rated so lowly in over three years, and as explained before, there is solid evidence based on the last two runs, that he’s hitting some strong form. At given prices he seems quite a bit overpriced.

Misty Grey – 10pts win @ 16/1

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4.40 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

It’s difficult not to like how Dear My Friend won his last three races since his return as a gelding and from wind operation. A changed horse, so to speak.

Four from four on the All-Weather now, and there s every chance he’s got still much more to offer. For all that he has to prove his lofty rating on speed ratings yet.

He may not have to do so here, as the pace falls right into his lap, if he wants it. He’s also a pretty fair price, at 7/2 currently, very much one I’d consider to back.

However, from a value perspective I just can’t look past Tempus. He’s not getting any younger and was beaten by My Dear Friend back in January. However the race and certainly pace scenario will play out differently this time, and so is the weights difference between the two.

Tempus is also drawn close to My Dear Friend, and may well track him all the way from his #2 draw. Usually also forward, he should equally enjoy the run of the race.

The handicapper has given him an opportunity as well. Dropped him to 102, despite three notable performances this year. He’s not been that low since winning a competitive Ascot Handicap in July 2022.

There is no question that Tempus remains in strong form, though, because he ran a joint career-best (and best on AW) speed rating at Kempton in January on his comeback run. He missed the break that day but finished very strongly as he kicked on nicely from 3f out in a good listed contest.

He fared best from those up with the pace subsequently at Newcastle when he was beaten by My Dear Friend eventually. Another strong performance. And was then a bit too keen when locked in a pace battle in a Listed race at Cagnes last month, where he was still ahead with only 1.5f to go, though.

I feel from a handicapping perspective and pace scenario Tempus got a significant chance to outrun his big price tag here.

10pts win – Tempus @ 23/1