Global Racing

Saturday Reflections

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Dundalk All-Weather

First things first: Toriano (5/1) got the job done at Lingfield! Got his head in front when it mattered. The third winner of the still quite fresh year.

Late money arrived for American Patrol at Kempton in the evening. From an impossible position he was never any serious questions asked, though, and to my eyes it looked as if PJ McDonald saved him for another day. Still, American Patrol made eye-catching headway in the closing stages. His day will come soon.

The End of the Southwell Dream?

Media reported that Southwell racecourse is likely to change its racing surface to Tapeta next year. The installation of floodlights is also in discussion.

Only a proposal at this point in time, so the official statement. However, the Twitter machine suggested otherwise. The end for the Fibresand surface is more a given than a mere possibility.

There’ll be many who won’t mind. Some who’ll be more than happy to see it go. A few are probably going to miss it.  I’ll be sad. Southwell would becomee “just another one”. Not that there’s anything wrong with Tapeta, or Polytrack for that matter.

Wolverhampton, Newastle, Lingfield, Kempton, Chelmsford – all fine tracks. I love All-Weather racing no matter what. Nonetheless, Southwell is unique. Unique because of the Fibresand. A different test for horses, a different way races are run. It suits some horses. Other don’t act here at all. That’s the fun!

As a betting medium I love it. As a racing fan I applaud it. For being different. A stand-out in the British racing scene. Here’s hoping Southwell will make the right decision: keep the Fibresand and keep the uniqueness of the racecourse alive.

Legal Eagle Does it Again!

For a third consecutive time South Africa’s highest rated horse landed the Group 1 Queen’s Plate over a mile at Kenilworth racecourse. A stunning success, perfectly timed by Anton Marcus in the saddle.

For a moment or two it looked like pace setter Captain America might have got away with it. However, from 2f out Legal Eagle kicked into top gear and cut back the lead rapidly. No problems in the end.

He reminds me a bit of former South African superstar – Variety Club. An impressive Plate winner himself, who went to win at Meydan and Hong Kong. In fact, comparisons aren’t to far off, given Legal Eagle could seek his own international glory in November this year, as thanks to the Queen’s Plate success, he’s automatically earned the right to contest the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Teenage Triumph in the Welsh National

Horse racing simply delivered the best stories. More often than not. There is young jockey James Bowen, a year ago still riding the ponies, 16 year of age, still claiming five pounds, sitting on 13 year old Raz De Maree.

That in itself is kinda odd But then these two go on the romp home in the Grade 3 Welsh National! That success didn’t look all that likely when the field turned for home with four fences to jump. Raz De Maree had lost contention to the front group, Bowen tried his best to keep the 16/1 longshot going.

The veteran responded. Between third and second last, he seemingly found another gear and with two out suddenly jumped to the lead, which he never gave away again.

A heroic effort, from both, horse and jockey. And certainly a day young James Bowen won’t forget too quickly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CE_tflU8jDs

Ireland

Preview: Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle

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Naas

1.45 Naas: Grade 1 Novice Hurdle, 2m 4f

No Samcro in the race makes the task on hand for Next Destination somewhat easier. One would think so, at least. A brilliant Grade 2 Navan Novice Hurdle winner, comes here with plenty of positive experience.

He created a big impression on a number of occasions now. A fine bumper horse last season, he proves even better over hurdles. 2/2 now, overcoming a slight fright at at the third last but came back on the bridle and putting the race to bet in impressive style.

He’s the clear favourite on anything we know. What we don’t know yet, how much upside does the Joseph O’Brien trained Speak Easy has to offer?

He landed a maiden hurdle when debuting under rules at Navan last month. Clearly green and not quite sure what to do, he made Mark Walsh work a bit throughout and missed a couple of jumps.

However the way he made progress and motored home without ever being really touched, in a maiden hurdle that looks like solid form, is something to take note of.

Connections decided against the Tolworth and rather opted to come to Naas. They will hope he has learned plenty the other day. He’ll have to be a fast learner if he wants to trouble the favourite.

However in his favour is the step up in trip. 2m 4f should suit much better than 2m. Given how good Speak Easy already looked when showing plenty signs of inexperience, one can only imagine how much more he can bring to the table if understanding more of what his job is.

Interesting side fact: Speak Easy has achieved the highest time speed rating in the field so far. Not always an indicator for success, nonetheless the fact Next Destination hasn’t run better than 109 yet, is another small piece in the puzzle that let me come to the conclusion that there is potentially less between these two than the market suggests.

It is hard to see anyone else from the field having a realistic say in the outcome of the race. So at 11/2 it is impossible for me to not back Speak Easy. Maybe Next Destionation is the better horse and can use his experience to full extend – however on pure price reasons, I feel Speak Easy has a better than 16% chance to win.

Selection:
10pts win – Speak Easy @ 11/2 Bet365

Betting

Betting Review 2017

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608.70 points profit. 31.62% ROI. 2017.

It’s been some betting year. A year of hard work. A year of change. Change and work that paid off. A handsome reward, for hours and hours put in day and night.

It was needed. A disastrous end to 2015, and the worst betting year in long memory that was 2016, left me without a choice but to change  my approach to the game. Change it radically, if I wanted to continue to be part of it.

To make this game pay can sometimes feel easy. A big winner in the feature on Saturday. Happy days! Oh so easy. Not.

The difficulty is felt only if you keep track of what you’re doing over a long enough period of time. When you see the numbers turning either green or red. Profitable betting long term isn’t easy. It’s bloody difficult.

That’s why it’s key question to answer for every punter with the aim of extracting tangible gains from betting: how can I find a scalable model that can be trusted on a day to day basis that helps me to stay focused, selective and takes emotions out of the equation?

2017 was the year of change for me personally on that front. What worked in the past, didn’t work any longer. The game changes. And if you don’t change with the game you lose.

The Numbers Game – 2017 in Detail:

•  Bets: 211
•  Winners: 37
•  Profit/Loss: +608.70pts
•  Strike Rate: 17.54%
•  ROI: 31.62%

No surprise, the majority of my bets came on the flat. 168 bets, for 32 winners. The average odds was in and around 10/1; the winning odds on average roughly 7/1. Only 36 of all bets came on the British All-Weather, resulting in 8 winners and a very healthy ROI.

The jumps game isn’t mine on a day to day basis. 43 bets, mostly at the Cheltenham Festival, produced a small profit from five winners, thanks to some big price winners.

My selections tend to do poorly in graded and better races in general. On the other hand, selections in the lower end of the handicap spectrum have been hugely successful. In fact 17 winning selections in class 4 or lower class handicaps amounting for nearly half of all winning bets in 2017, however for only a bit more than a third of all selections.

Highlights were quite clearly Tiger Roll’s Cheltenham succes in the National Hunt Cup – a 20/1 winner, the biggest of the year.

Even more so celebrated however, was Rekindling’s Melbourne Cup triumph. Because I shouted it from the roof the night before. I rarely do that, but was sure this lad would go well.

Also because the Melbourne Cup is my favourite race of the racing calendar. I didn’t find the winner in it ever before. It was a great betting- and personally emotional win.


Focus for 2018:

It’s easy. More All-Weather. It’s my strong point. Quite clearly.

More selectiveness if it comes to the better racing. Yes, it would be nice to have a bet in the big Group 1 at Ascot… but not for the sake of “just having one”.

Less jump racing. I am not too good at it. So let’s keep it to minimum and watch out for real quality selections.

Reduce number of “shorties”. Selections <=2/1 are simply not as profitable and I made some pretty bad selections in 2017.

Target unexposed three year old’s versus exposed older horses in Spring.

Betting

Saturday Selections: January, 6th 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

It hurts if your 40/1 shot gets beaten on the line. Never get too high, never too low… if it would be so easy?! For a moment or to inside the final furlong it looked like Monte Cinq looked would have to enough in the tank to hold on and win. He didn’t. A neck beaten. Autsch.

It didn’t help that Snaffled also finished 2nd and Going Native faltering in the closing stages after a way too aggressive front-running ride.

……

1.15 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

A prime chance for Toriano to find back to winning ways, if he can build on his fine 4th in a hot class 4 contest at this venue last month.

He made too much over a trip that stretches him in the early parts of the race, but ran well enough in a race that works out really well. A clear return to form in my book.

He drops in trip and gets further help from the handicapper, now back over a CD he’s won before as a juvenile and below his last winning mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Toriano @ 5/1 Bet365

…..

6.45 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Trainer Neil Mulholland doesn’t send them over for fun to Kempton in these low grade handicaps, and you got to take them very seriously, indeed.

His inmate American Patrol comes here on the back of a string of poor runs, however there might be fair reasons for it. He didn’t act at Southwell, quite clearly, and neither did softish conditions suit on his sole turf start in 2017.

That says, the Rio De La Plata son looked to have a good deal more to offer than his rating off 55 when he won a Wolverhampton 7f Handicap back in January last year.

He’s down to the very same mark now, only the trip a furlong longer – on pedigree very much possible, and I think he deserves another chance as, for mentioned reasons, runs over a mile before, could be discounted.

Selection:
10pts win – American Patrol @ 14/1 Bet365

 

Betting

Friday Selections II: January, 5th 2018

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2.40 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Speculative given there is no money for him, however long-shot Monte Cinq has been given a big chance by the handicapper, dropping him another 5lb on the back of a string of poor results.

That says, off an already lowered mark, the other day, over 5f here at Southwell, he probably ran a bit better than the bare form suggests.

This race looks a good marker, has been franked in the meantime and Monte Cinq’s run can be upgraded for the fact that he had to make his move on the disadvantaged stands side.

He showed some good performances on the All-Weather last winter, running in much higher grades off bigger marks. If he can find back some spark, now stepping up to 6f, which should suit, he can go close in a race where other than the short priced favourite, not an awful lot makes appeal.

Selection:
10pts win – Monte Cinq @ 40/1 Skybet

……

Betting

Friday Selections: January, 5th 2018

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Dashas gambled from 12/1 into 6/4 at Newcastle yesterday afternoon…. much the opposite way I feared his price would go. Still, not quite good enough to win, eventually. Not quick enough, in fact. Widnes was a non-runner.

…..

12.55 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

I am always keen to watch out for Sean Levey in the saddle in these races over the minimum trip, particularly if riding for David Brown. His record over the years is phenomenal, even more so when riding one of Brown’s.

Three year old son of Camacho, Snaffled, doesn’t make allot of appeal on paper. Five runs, all well beaten, last four starts at odds of 50/1 and higher.

However, there is promise. He finished still a good deal beaten last time out at Newcastle, when fourth in a class 5 Handicap over 7f. However he travelled extremely nicely throughout, showed a bit of class – as much as that is available in these low grades – when switching and changing gear inside the last three furlongs, just to fade out without ever being really touched in the closing stages.

It was an eye-catching run from a visual point of view. Whether the drop in trip to sharp 5f at Southwell is what he wants remains to be seen. It looks, though, as if he has a bit of speed – tactical speed, so to speak – and market confidence plus jockey booking suggests, today is the day this lad is unleashed.

The fact he is now a three year old and maybe needed the time to mature last season, in combination with a drop in class on his handicap debut, means he’s a prime chance in this contest, as long as he takes to the fibresand, which always is a slight risk.

Selection:
10pts win – Snaffled @ 7/2 Bet365

…….

2.05 Southwell: Class 5 Maiden Handicap, 1m

A mix of unexposed versus well exposed horses piped – one of the three year old’s should have too much upside for the older horses; hopefully that’ll be Southwell debutant Going Native.

She showed some promise in four starts as a juvenile, however changed yards in the meantime and now dropped into a Southwell maiden handicap on what is only her second handicap start, fresh off a break, gives her an ideal opportunity to show she’s worthy her rather highish looking handicap rating.

That says her mark off 68 could easily be underestimating her true potential at the same time, now as a three year old, particularly here at Southwell’s fibresand.

Going Native is quite well bred, by Speightstown, out of a Group 2 placed mare. Speightstown is one of the what I call “super sires” at Southwell; his record with offspring at this track, particularly over the 1 mile trip, is excellent.

When last seen at Lingfield in a 7f Handicap, Going Native made life difficult for herself when starting badly. In the aftermath she never looked happy throughout the race and seemingly found this trip and track way too sharp.

Nonetheless she stayed on really well from an unpromising position and ran the final three furlongs the quickest sectionals. That’s real promise. Up in trip, at Southwell, she should be bang there.

Selection:
10pts win – Going Native @ 9/2 Skybet

Betting

Thursday Selections: January, 4th 2018

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Off the mark in 2018! Pearl Nation (selected @ 4/1) and Arnarson (9/2) both won their races in rather convincing style! That’s the way to go… long may it last.

…….

5.35 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 12f

Can you be more unlucky than Widnes was in his last two races? You probably can, but given we deal with lowly rated individuals, the obstacles the four year old son of Showcasing had to overcome recently, were a near impossible task.

Granted, this lad is still a maiden after 16 starts. However, ever since connections opted for a tongue-tie and visor combination he’s ran eye-catchingly well in his last two starts, both over 12f at Lingfield.

He can have some issues at the start; certainly in his penultimate run, when first time tongue-tied, he reared badly and found himself at a near impossible position at the back of a 16-runner strong field.

He made good progress, despite turning extremely wide around the home turn and once re-organised, motored home to finish much the strongest.

Things worked better at the start last time out, Widnes was sent to the front soon, settled close to the pace, however slightly lacking tactical speed, found himself suddenly behind a wall of horses entering the home straight. He did not have clear passage until too late, yet finished strongly again to run on in second.

Form and ratings of those races suggest the handicapper has been lenient here: only 1lb up – if finally he get a good break and clear run, he can win a race off this mark for sure.

A good draw gives him every chance to be in a favourable position in this race; he’s the one to beat, quite clearly.

Selection:
10pts win – Widnes @ 4/1 Bet365

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4.55 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

I am taking the risk that he drifts out and is only here to run the mark down, however there is something to like about longs-hot Daschas.

This will be his third 3rd run since switching yards and being gelded, while a proper performance is dating back to the end of 2016 now. That was a commanding maiden success over 7f at Kempton.

He had to race off high marks subsequently, in races too hot for him. Now dropping in class, down to a more realistic rating, back on the All-Weather, he might be able to surprise trying the minimum trip for the very first time.

Selection:
10pts win – Daschas @ 12/1 Bet365

Betting

Wednesday Selections – January, 3rd 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Beaten on the line…. oh so unlucky, Waarif, this afternoon at Newcastle. No. He wasn’t unlucky. Simply beaten by a better horse on the day. Yes, agonizingly close it was, however Waarif had no excuse and every chance being gifted a soft lead.

……

3.10 Southwell: Class 6 Claimer, 1m

Not the type of race I tend to find winners, however question marks over each and every single one of this group of largely veterans, makes it an interesting betting proposition.

Favourite Tatlisu can be opposed on the fact he has to overcome two “firsts” in surface and trip, plus does not stand out on ratings as much as the price would suggest.

Last years winner Vivat Rex has a lot to prove after a dismal comeback run, nine-year old Athassel should find the trip too far.

Top weight Pearl Nation has equally to prove that he still wants it.  His reappearance in a claimer at Wolverhamption four weeks ago looked only good on paper – a runner-up effort in a poor field suggested he’s nowhere near as good as his handicap rating suggests, and subsequently he bombed out in handicap company.

To be fair, that was a class 4 handicap over sharp 6f – probably beyond him at this stage in his career. However overall hi profile gives me the impression he is still as good as the rest in this field – with the advantage that he clearly loves Southwell and certainly stays the trip, given he is a CD winner.

He’s got to give a bit of weight away, nonetheless, this race seems the best chance for Pearl Nation to find back to the winning ways.

Selection:
10pts win – Pearl Nation @ 4/1 Bet365

…….

5.10 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Still a maiden after 14 starts, yet Arnarson heads the market in this race, and is probably still slightly underestimated. While yet to get off the mark, in Handicap company he’s been placed in two from three starts and overall on the All-Weather in 70% of his starts.

His last three starts, all in 6f handicaps, have been more than solid forms, particularly his runner-up- & 3rd placed effort at Chelmsford and Wolverhampton. Those results have been franked and rating wise are strong form, suggesting a win is only a matter of time for Arnarson.

He steps up to 7f here, which should help, given he stays a mile alright. The fact that he is still a colt – the only one in the line-up – and that connections gave him time before to get off in a maiden, and haven’t gelded him yet, gives the impression that Arnarson must show something at home that promises something.

He certainly promises to have a prime chance to win this race, from a fine draw, with seemingly everything in place for a bit performance.

Selection:
10pts win – Arnarson @ 9/2 Bet365

Betting

Tuesday Selections – January 2nd 2018

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

Happy new year! May 2018 be a successful one! In personal life as well as in the world of betting.

2017 didn’t close out with a bang. Brother Tiger, my very last selection in the now old year, ran a blinder, finished 2nd, though lost the race at the start when falling out of the gates. Onwards and upwards…

4.10 Newcastle: Class 4 handicap, 1m

First bet in 2018, of course on the All-Weather – five year old Waarif, with a first time visor applied, fits the profile I am looking for in this race.

Since moving to the O’Meara yard he hasn’t exactly set the world alight, after winning a maiden in Ireland at the third time of asking. However on ratings (RPR & TS) he’s ran well enough, suggesting there is a win in him off his current handicap mark.

An issue has been a habit of bad starts lately. It’s a risk today once more. Here’ hoping the new head-gear fitted can rectify this problem.

Dropping back to a mile, with a good draw in a winnable race, the combination of tongue-tie and visor may be the slight change needed to see Waarif get over the line again.

Selection:
10pts win – Waarif @ 9/2 Bet365

Betting

Friday Selections: December 29th 2017

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2.25 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Competitive race over the minimum trip on the fibresand. I do fancy the chance of eight-year old veteran Brother Tiger.

A 5f furlong specialist, who’s shown his best at Lingfield in the past. He’s been seen only once at Southwell before, back in 2016, when placed over this very same trip.

Back from a break after two below-par efforts ended an until then busy season, potentially he needed it as 2017 was in fact his busiest campaign ever, which in general was a decent one including a Lingfild 5f win in May.

Brother Tiger is down to this last winning mark now and if fit after his break, could play a pivotal role from the perfect draw. The golden highway, those low numbers, and even more the 1 draw, can often be a significant advantage here.

Selection: 
10pts win – Brother Tiger @ 15/2 Bet365

 

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