Horseracing International | Horseracing

Favourite Horse: over the next weeks I am writing a series of articles about horses I hold dear to my heart. Classy miler Paco Boy kicked off proceedings in part I – next up is a “filly for the ages”.

Normally US racing on dusty dirt isn’t quite my cup of tea. Yet here on dirt it happened: a race I’ll never forget. It’s the 1st of May 2009, an unusually scorching hot day – I remember it vividly, sweating in front of the laptop in a stuffy living room.

Late evening, I’ve got a grainy stream from Churchill Downs: post parade for the Kentucky Oaks. This ridiculously short priced favourite heads the field – I throw a bit of money on Flying Spur, the second favourite. Not the wisest investment as it turns out.

Rachel Alexandra is three to one on in the betting. Little did I know about her at this point in time. Minutes later the whole racing world will know about her. Hard on the bridle she destroys her six rivals by 20 lengths – the widest winning margin in the Kentucky Oaks ever:

The “super filly” goes on from here proving this otherworldly performance wasn’t a fluke. She takes on the boys in the Preakness Stakes. Odds are staked against her: no filly has won the second leg of the Triple Crown since 1924. Rachel Alexandra usually enjoys to run from the front but has been dealt the widest draw on this day.

Yet jockey Calvin Borel gets Rachel Alexandra across to lead wire to wire: “And the filly did it!” screams an excited Tom Hammond in the commentators box. The first filly to win the Preakness Stakes, doing so she’s defeating Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird.

Rachel Alexandra becomes a star that shines beyond the boundaries of horse racing. She features in “Vogue” magazine and a legion of fans follow her every move – so do I, although from far away. Still, those Saturdays in the summer of 2009 – “Rachel Saturdays” – are cherished memories to this day.

Only six weeks after the Preakness she romped home in the Mother Goose – only three rivals in her way, though leaving a multiple Grade one winner more than 30 lengths behind, nearly breaking Secretariat’s track record, if not for being heavily eased in the final furlong.

Another almighty performance against the boys in the Haskell Invitational Stakes – she makes it look so easy, beating Belmont Stakes champ Summer Bird by six lengths on a muddy track, again running an incredibly fast time, despite the conditions, becoming the second filly in history to win the race,

A final ‘hallelujah’ in September saw Rachel Alexandra write history – once more – as the first filly to land the Woodward Stakes. This time in a dramatic finish, holding off the late charges from high class rivals after setting grueling early fractions from the front in her usual style. It leaves commentator Tom Durkin stunned as he concludes his call “She is, indeed, Rachel Alexandra The Great!”.

2009 was her year: Unbeaten in eight races, five Grade 1’s – each for every month from May to September. She beats the boys in the Preakness, Haskell, and Woodward – her spectacular three-year campaign is probably only matched by Sea The Stars on the other side of the globe!

That intense year took a toll on Rachel Alexandra. The next season she clearly wasn’t the same filly. Five more races, three of them end in defeat. She never reached the same heights again. After another shock defeat in August 2010 Rachel Alexandra is retired to become a broodmare.

She produced a colt and a filly but it turned out she wasn’t suited to the breeding game. She nearly died in the aftermath of the delivery of her second and final foal, Rachel’s Valentina.

To this day Rachel Alexandra has a loyal fanbase and they come to visit her at Stonestreet Farm. Once a year the “See Rachel Day” provides opportunity to those who are lucky enough to win a ticket to be invited to spend some time with the “Super Filly”.

There was something special about Rachel Alexandra as a race horse that made me follow her with passion throughout her career, but especially that magic summer of 2009: the white blaze across the face, you could easily make her out among a bunch of other horses. An athletic, strong body and beautiful bay colour; alert and all heart when it mattered most, galloping her rivals into submission from the front.

I want to end this piece with a recommendation to sit back, relax and enjoy this wonderful homage on Rachel Alexandra and her biggest victories – it still gives me chills, even after watching it probably a hundred times by now. Rachel Alexandra: a filly for the ages!

608.70 points profit. 31.62% ROI. 2017.

It’s been some betting year. A year of hard work. A year of change. Change and work that paid off. A handsome reward, for hours and hours put in day and night.

It was needed. A disastrous end to 2015, and the worst betting year in long memory that was 2016, left me without a choice but to change my approach to the game. Change it radically, if I wanted to continue to be part of it.

To make this game pay can sometimes feel easy. A big winner in the feature on Saturday. Happy days! Oh so easy. Not.

The difficulty is felt only if you keep track of what you’re doing over a long enough period of time. When you see the numbers turning either green or red. Profitable betting long term isn’t easy. It’s bloody difficult.

That’s why it’s key question to answer for every punter with the aim of extracting tangible gains from betting: how can I find a scalable model that can be trusted on a day to day basis that helps me to stay focused, selective and takes emotions out of the equation?

2017 was the year of change for me personally on that front. What worked in the past, didn’t work any longer. The game changes. And if you don’t change with the game you lose.

The Numbers Game – 2017 in Detail:

• Bets: 211
• Winners: 37
• Profit/Loss: +608.70pts
• Strike Rate: 17.54%
• ROI: 31.62%

No surprise, the majority of my bets came on the flat. 168 bets, for 32 winners. The average odds was in and around 10/1; the winning odds on average roughly 7/1. Only 36 of all bets came on the British All-Weather, resulting in 8 winners and a very healthy ROI.

The jumps game isn’t mine on a day to day basis. 43 bets, mostly at the Cheltenham Festival, produced a small profit from five winners, thanks to some big price winners.

My selections tend to do poorly in graded and better races in general. On the other hand, selections in the lower end of the handicap spectrum have been hugely successful. In fact 17 winning selections in class 4 or lower class handicaps amounting for nearly half of all winning bets in 2017, however for only a bit more than a third of all selections.

View: Complete Stats 2017

Highlights were quite clearly Tiger Roll’s Cheltenham succes in the National Hunt Cup – a 20/1 winner, the biggest of the year.

Even more so celebrated however, was Rekindling’s Melbourne Cup triumph. Because I shouted it from the roof the night before. I rarely do that, but was sure this lad would go well.

Also because the Melbourne Cup is my favourite race of the racing calendar. I didn’t find the winner in it ever before. It was a great betting- and personally emotional win.

Focus for 2018:

It’s easy. More All-Weather. It’s my strong point. Quite clearly.

More selectiveness if it comes to the better racing. Yes, it would be nice to have a bet in the big Group 1 at Ascot… but not for the sake of “just having one”.

Less jump racing. I am not too good at it. So let’s keep it to minimum and watch out for real quality selections.

Reduce number of “shorties”. Selections <=2/1 are simply not as profitable and I made some pretty bad selections in 2017.

Target unexposed three year old’s versus exposed older horses in Spring.