Tag Archives: southwell 5f

Betting

Friday Selections: January, 5th 2018

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Dashas gambled from 12/1 into 6/4 at Newcastle yesterday afternoon…. much the opposite way I feared his price would go. Still, not quite good enough to win, eventually. Not quick enough, in fact. Widnes was a non-runner.

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12.55 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

I am always keen to watch out for Sean Levey in the saddle in these races over the minimum trip, particularly if riding for David Brown. His record over the years is phenomenal, even more so when riding one of Brown’s.

Three year old son of Camacho, Snaffled, doesn’t make allot of appeal on paper. Five runs, all well beaten, last four starts at odds of 50/1 and higher.

However, there is promise. He finished still a good deal beaten last time out at Newcastle, when fourth in a class 5 Handicap over 7f. However he travelled extremely nicely throughout, showed a bit of class – as much as that is available in these low grades – when switching and changing gear inside the last three furlongs, just to fade out without ever being really touched in the closing stages.

It was an eye-catching run from a visual point of view. Whether the drop in trip to sharp 5f at Southwell is what he wants remains to be seen. It looks, though, as if he has a bit of speed – tactical speed, so to speak – and market confidence plus jockey booking suggests, today is the day this lad is unleashed.

The fact he is now a three year old and maybe needed the time to mature last season, in combination with a drop in class on his handicap debut, means he’s a prime chance in this contest, as long as he takes to the fibresand, which always is a slight risk.

Selection:
10pts win – Snaffled @ 7/2 Bet365

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2.05 Southwell: Class 5 Maiden Handicap, 1m

A mix of unexposed versus well exposed horses piped – one of the three year old’s should have too much upside for the older horses; hopefully that’ll be Southwell debutant Going Native.

She showed some promise in four starts as a juvenile, however changed yards in the meantime and now dropped into a Southwell maiden handicap on what is only her second handicap start, fresh off a break, gives her an ideal opportunity to show she’s worthy her rather highish looking handicap rating.

That says her mark off 68 could easily be underestimating her true potential at the same time, now as a three year old, particularly here at Southwell’s fibresand.

Going Native is quite well bred, by Speightstown, out of a Group 2 placed mare. Speightstown is one of the what I call “super sires” at Southwell; his record with offspring at this track, particularly over the 1 mile trip, is excellent.

When last seen at Lingfield in a 7f Handicap, Going Native made life difficult for herself when starting badly. In the aftermath she never looked happy throughout the race and seemingly found this trip and track way too sharp.

Nonetheless she stayed on really well from an unpromising position and ran the final three furlongs the quickest sectionals. That’s real promise. Up in trip, at Southwell, she should be bang there.

Selection:
10pts win – Going Native @ 9/2 Skybet

All-Weather

Myth or Fact: Low Draw Advantage 5f Southwell?

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Short days. No sunlight. Freezing temperatures. Yep, winter is coming. So here it starts also, with zero fanfare: the dull, ever the same boring racing on the sand. Racing fans in huge numbers hate the All-Weather with a passion. Well, I don’t. In fact love it.

That is a matter of opinion of course, and is nothing to debate here and now. However with the AW season kicking into top gear sooner rather than later, I want to highlight some interesting facts on everything sand racing over the next coming weeks.

The 5 Furlongs Anomaly 

Every man and his dog seems to know that the straight 5 furlongs at Southwell works heavily to the advantage of horses drawn low. By how much? And is it true? Well, that’s the question. Pure gut feeling and visual impression as an indicator certainly tells a story of “something’s there”.

What do the numbers say? If we focus on winter as the season we’re interested in, then the almighty Excel sheet back this up in impressive manner. I don’t want to throw numbers around, but let’s say over the last five winters significantly more races have been won by those drawn low over 5f at Southwell. Regardless of age, sex and race conditions.

Imagine this: if you would have backed blindly every runner in every race drawn between stall one and four during those years with a £1 stake, you would have made a profit of nearly £75. That’s a 32% return on your investment. Not too shabby!

Even more so if consider three of the past five seasons have produced a profit after all.

Now, flying blind is never a good idea, regardless. So why don’t you refine your criteria hence increase you chance of finding a winner while profiting even more from the low draw advantage?

Fly With Open Eyes

Say you won’t back any fillies and mares, because the numbers quite clearly tell females perform much worse on the All-Weather in winter against the opposite sex. Say you focus on races for older (4yo +) horses solely, because most races are held for them in winter, anyway:

You’ll increase your return of investment to a near 96%. Just like that! In fact you would have made a definite profit in any of the past five years (based on SP)!

Why is that? Why is there this huge advantage for horses drawn low over 5 furlongs at Southwell? At The Races seems to know: This (over 5f very high draws tend to be at a disadvantage) is because they are often forced to rail under the near side rail where the ground is slower.

Southwell In Comparison 

Fact is: compared to the only other All-Weather racetrack in Britain that offers a straight 5f track – Newcastle – Southwell is an anomaly. You would think that a straight track is fair and gives near equal chances to win from either a low, middle or high draw.

Granted, Newcastle has a Tapeta surface and Southwell is Fibresand, it is telling that we see there exactly that: an equal strike rate for low and high drawn horses. The middle fares slightly worse. Not significantly worse, though slightly worse. Probably because if you’re drawn high or low you will have more often than not the rail as an aid.

In Conclusion

We can say that there is certainly a bias over 5 furlongs at Southwell. This has not changed over the years and for punters this remains a great opportunity to exploit and profit from.

Refining the criteria of races you back horses in can yield in even better results. I gave you some very simple suggestions. If you want – of course – you can drill down even further and you find even more interesting facts to take into account (specific draw, head-gear…).

I do look forward to see how things pan out in the upcoming season. Keep an eye on these 5f contests. Southwell is back next Monday…. with three races over the straight course!