Tag Archives: Horseracing-International.com

My Betting Review 2018

671.50 points profit. 28.78% ROI – 239 bets, 33 successful selections: 2018.

A fine year from a punting perspective! It’s back-to-back profitable years in fact, ever since I changed my approach to betting on horses. As last year was all about refining, tweaking and adjusting the method, 2018 was all about putting it consistently to work.

There is no doubt that the All-Weather is my happy hunting ground. It’s so by a wide margin outperforming turf in terms of profit and ROI, and has delivered the majority of success this year: 605pts.

Of course a few big priced winners helped. They always help. However, you only find long-shots if you consistently punt them, and they only turn into a long-term profit if you find value in them. The notion that any 20/1 shot is automatically value isn’t only flawed, it’s the route to bankruptcy.

The British Turf has been a different story: a lot of bets for a negative return: -49.50pts. The story could have been a different one if not for 7 furlong races. 22 selections, not a single winner. Burned a lot of money there. Take those out of the equation and it would have been a healthy profit.

Jumps delivered a minimal loss -8pts. The Cheltenham Festival, profitably for the second year running, couldn’t make up for an otherwise poor performance over obstacles.

It’s simply not where my strengths are and I don’t have the same tools available as for flat racing. It’s telling on the scoreboard.

On the international front it was yet again a fine year. From a small selection of bets, the highlights were Hawkbill in Dubai and of course for the second year running, finding the Melbourne Cup winner with Cross Counter: +144pts.

January and March 2018 contributed as the most successful months of the year to the profit of 2018. No surprise, as those are major months for the All-Weather.

The summer months were a difficult roller-coaster. August resulted in a -90pts loss, October posting minus 75pts.

Clearly there is a lot to learn from all of that, though:

  1. Despite having more selections in 2018 than the year before I found less winners and posted a smaller ROI, yet a higher profit. 2019 shall be about quality over quantity.
  2. Low grade- and 7 furlong Handicaps on Turf have been a disaster. Keep selections on this type of races to an absolute minimum.
  3. Jumps: Focus on the Cheltenham Festival. Keep money in the pocket otherwise.

One of the major issues developing over the course of 2018 has been the problem of getting on with bookies. This is nothing totally new. Many punters face severe restrictions.

Only over the last two years, though – punting higher sums as confidence in my process is rock solid now, followed up by monetary success – I have started to see my accounts become restricted. Bet365, Sky, VC or Betway – they all market their products prominently but only want mugs to join them (from a business perspective: who can blame them!).

Most firms, big an small, have restricted my accounts to meaningless amounts these days. A certain Geoff Banks – at least he had the guts to engage in a real conversation, mind – accused me of cheating. While all I’m doing is working hard and putting in the effort.

Obviously the majority of my races are lower grade, less liquid markets, mid-week. To get a reasonable stake of something like 100 quid on  to an 8/1 shot is neigh to imposible. And it doesn’t even matter whether you’re winning long term with these firms or not.

Exchanges help, but only to an extend. Betfair has high charges, particularly if you win well over a certain period of time. And markets for my races aren’t always liquid.

I’ve found Matchbook a pretty good substitute, thankfully. The markets are growing. Even though I barely get my full stake on top prices, at least I get my stake on within a range of odds that I still regard as value.

The issue of “getting on” has put me off the idea to potentially increase my flat stake – yes, I do bet with flat stake, because it simply works best for my process, particularly mentally – and considering going full time. The hassle isn’t worth it.

For now it remains a wonderful side income. Tax free. 671.50 points profit and 28.78% return of investment for around 20 hours work a week – that’s pretty decent – no bank gives you that sort of interest on your money. And I do actually enjoy the hours put in as well. A win-win situation.

  • A complete list of all 2018 selections can be found here.

Disclaimer: This website is not a betting service. I do not take responsibility for your losses. This is a betting blog where I write about my selections. If others follow, enjoy the read and get on to a few winners thanks to this blog – great, I’m happy. Please only bet what you can afford to lose!

If you enjoy the content of this site and want to support it, you may want to consider clicking some of the adds or send a small donation.

Saying that: happy punting in 2019 – and bringing it to an end with my personal favourite victories of 2018:

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Betting Review 2017

608.70 points profit. 31.62% ROI. 2017.

It’s been some betting year. A year of hard work. A year of change. Change and work that paid off. A handsome reward, for hours and hours put in day and night.

It was needed. A disastrous end to 2015, and the worst betting year in long memory that was 2016, left me without a choice but to change  my approach to the game. Change it radically, if I wanted to continue to be part of it.

To make this game pay can sometimes feel easy. A big winner in the feature on Saturday. Happy days! Oh so easy. Not.

The difficulty is felt only if you keep track of what you’re doing over a long enough period of time. When you see the numbers turning either green or red. Profitable betting long term isn’t easy. It’s bloody difficult.

That’s why it’s key question to answer for every punter with the aim of extracting tangible gains from betting: how can I find a scalable model that can be trusted on a day to day basis that helps me to stay focused, selective and takes emotions out of the equation?

2017 was the year of change for me personally on that front. What worked in the past, didn’t work any longer. The game changes. And if you don’t change with the game you lose.

The Numbers Game – 2017 in Detail:

•  Bets: 211
•  Winners: 37
•  Profit/Loss: +608.70pts
•  Strike Rate: 17.54%
•  ROI: 31.62%

No surprise, the majority of my bets came on the flat. 168 bets, for 32 winners. The average odds was in and around 10/1; the winning odds on average roughly 7/1. Only 36 of all bets came on the British All-Weather, resulting in 8 winners and a very healthy ROI.

The jumps game isn’t mine on a day to day basis. 43 bets, mostly at the Cheltenham Festival, produced a small profit from five winners, thanks to some big price winners.

My selections tend to do poorly in graded and better races in general. On the other hand, selections in the lower end of the handicap spectrum have been hugely successful. In fact 17 winning selections in class 4 or lower class handicaps amounting for nearly half of all winning bets in 2017, however for only a bit more than a third of all selections.

Highlights were quite clearly Tiger Roll’s Cheltenham succes in the National Hunt Cup – a 20/1 winner, the biggest of the year.

Even more so celebrated however, was Rekindling’s Melbourne Cup triumph. Because I shouted it from the roof the night before. I rarely do that, but was sure this lad would go well.

Also because the Melbourne Cup is my favourite race of the racing calendar. I didn’t find the winner in it ever before. It was a great betting- and personally emotional win.


Focus for 2018:

It’s easy. More All-Weather. It’s my strong point. Quite clearly.

More selectiveness if it comes to the better racing. Yes, it would be nice to have a bet in the big Group 1 at Ascot… but not for the sake of “just having one”.

Less jump racing. I am not too good at it. So let’s keep it to minimum and watch out for real quality selections.

Reduce number of “shorties”. Selections <=2/1 are simply not as profitable and I made some pretty bad selections in 2017.

Target unexposed three year old’s versus exposed older horses in Spring.

The NEW Horseracing – International . COM

Welcome to the brand NEW Horseracing – International . COM! If you have been a frequent reader of the old blog, then you know by now that I have made some changes, in terms of administration and particularly the platform the site is hosted. We’ve been with Google’s Blogspot platform for about four years and during that time the blog evolved and reinvented itself a number of times. However I always felt the restrictions on Blogger and had a move planned for a while.

So here we are now: On WordPress.com. A stable platform, that gives options for creativity and a new structure. This is just the beginning, though. Things will change further. But one step after another.

From now on I’m going to publish under this new address: http://www.horseracinginternational.wordpress.com. As before you’ll reach this site also via the normal domain www.Horseracing-International.com. You can follow the blog via mail – sign up on the left hand side. Or simply bookmark, and/or follow us on Facebook & Twitter.

New site, new theme and new address – however what remains the same is the content of the side. Well, not quite. Changes will be seen over the course of the next weeks and month’ as well. More opinionated articles, less betting, instead more big race previews. Quality content is what I want to offer here.

Of course ALL the old content, race previews, reviews, articles and photos – they aren’t lost. You can still visit the old blog via http://horseracing-international.blogspot.com.

I hope you like the new site. Leave feedback if you want or if you have recommendations, please feel free to voice them. Looking forward to hearing from you and seeing you around here!

Florian