Autumn Festival is an obvious choice off the same mark as when going agonisingly close over half a furlong further last time out, hence is possibly the right favourite. But odds-on? No, that not.
Down to 7 furlongs on fastish ground doesn’t look ideal given he won over a mile on soft ground, while his career best topspeed rating doesn’t say he’s well handicapped at all.
I am really interested in the filly Sense Of Security – again. I backed her at Leicester in May off her current same mark when she came home strongly to finish 2nd. There were reasons to mark her up for that performance, and it confirmed the promise she showed earlier the year, especially at Bath when seriously catching the eye.
She didn’t enjoyed softish ground subsequently and when last seen lost a shoe and was reportedly heavily in season, so it’s another performance with legitimate excuses.
The handicapper doesn’t take a chance with her, nonetheless off 63 she looks still capable of winning a race like this. Her Bath and Leicester runs gave the impression she can be a bit better than this Official Rating.
If the ground stays fast she certainly must got a prime chance in this field. If the new combination of headgear helps her to focus a bit better she will almost certainly be better than the mark. The track should suit her running style.
This is a really poor contest despite the fact that I have three eyecatchers running in it. Far From A Ruby is one but I want to see her back on the All-Weather. Her presence is positive from a pace scenario though, as she will go forward and that should ensure a solid gallop.
Others are expected to press her or certainly want to be in prominent positions. This proves ideal on fast ground at Ayr lately, there’s no doubt about that. In that context I struggle to see the attractiveness of Biplane who is the recipient of a bit of money this morning.
I have this between the three-year-olds, Audit and Thunderhill. The former caught the eye when a slightly unlucky 3rd at Catterick when dropped to 7 furlongs. A repeat effort with a clear run will see him go really close off the same mark.
My feeling is that Thunderhill, albeit higher in the mark, offers more scope for additional improvement and that could mean he has possibly a few pounds in hand on only his second handicap run.
He came to my attention on his final maiden race in May in deep conditions at Carlisle when he travelled sweetly through the race for a long time.
On handicap debut four week ago at Redcar he was seriously keen early on and not the easiest to steer. He finished well with the main bunch nonetheless. Probably not the best form, but no recent form in this field is better and he will have learned from it.
Thee faster pace today and the fact he doesn’t need to make it but can track it should be a huge help to his chances. He probably stays further too, so if they go really hard it will be a bonus.
He’s related to some decent winners too, though possibly will turn out to be a miler and is one to keep an eye on regardless what happens today.
Highly competitive affair. Pace will decide the outcome. My conclusion is the race will likely develop towards the lower drawn horses and that means some of the better fancied runners drawn high would need career-best performances to win.
The obvious choice, drawn in #2 is Rohaan, after his tremendous Royal Ascot performance. He has the form, the topspeed and the draw. He may be able to benefit from trailing a fast pace to be unleashed late with a turn of foot. Not sure whether the scenario today will really suit him, though at this track. Those in front may not stop so quickly. He looks a fair price but nothing better.
Chil Chil is really intriguing. Has top form on the book and ran to topspeed 103 two times in a row when last seen in even hotter class. If close to that form after a long break she’s the one to beat, but it’s exactly the long break that put me off.
Happy Romance is in fine form. She’s been running well all year long. Only 2 lengths beaten in the Jubilee Stakes, she couldn’t follow up at Newmarket, but had the worst draw to overcome that day. #10 today isn’t ideal either; no juice left in the price.
I can’t quite trust Minzaal after two solid but not exciting showings this year, especially with his best form coming on slower ground. Man Of Promise needs to step up significantly to feature. Not impossible but do I want to back a 5-year-old sprinter in the hope he suddenly finds 5-10lb on speed ratings? No.
The one I like against the grain is Saint Lawrence. He caught my eye earlier this year on his seasonal return at Newmarket over the minimum trip after a wind operation during his lay-off.
He finished really nicely that day in a race that looks pretty solid form, even though 5 furlongs is clearly way too hot for him. He stayed over this trip the next two times, neither disgraced at Chantilly and certainly not in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot.
It was seriously impressive how Saint Lawrence stuck to the task in the final furlong, posting the second fastest final furlong split, even though he looked going backwards from over two furlongs out, given things happened simply too quickly for him.
Fast ground is what he wants and no doubt he’s in top form. Moving up to 6 furlongs is only a positive. I reckon he’s actually best over 7 furlongs, but given his #4 draw, the pace scenario here and good Newbury record I am happy to back him at a big price to outrun the odds.
10pts win – Saint Lawrence @ 17/1
……..
3.10 Curragh: Group 2 Sapphire Stakes, 5f
The top two in the market should fight this out. Mooneista and Equilateral are the clear stand out horses in the field in my view, even though official ratings would make you believe Castle Star and Cadamosto have equal or better chances to feature.
Castle Star certainly has every right to go close after a strong runner-up performance behind Perfect Power at Royal Ascot. But 5 furlongs could be plenty sharp enough, especially on fast ground after a long break, and after seven career starts his highest topspeed ratings stands at 99. Nothing too exciting.
Cadamosto was 4th in the Commonwealth Cup, had no chance in the July Cup and has an inflated Official Rating in my view. His best topspeed is 88. He could take a step forward, of course. It has to be giant one to land a blow here against the well fancied older sprinters.
Mooneista is a class act. Highly consistent, ran multiple times really well this season already, without getting her head in front. This is easier than at Royal Ascot but her poor strike rate doesn’t make me want to back her at a tight price.
As many others I was fuming on front of the telly when Equilateral got the most horrible run at Sandown a fortnight ago. He’s obviously in excellent form, having ran really well in the King’s Stand Stakes on his seasonal reappearance.
He’s the one to beat today. Ground, track and trip will probably suit. He’s short enough a price given I am not sure whether he’s gonna be held up or tracking the pace today. I feel you are going to struggle coming from off the pace today.
The prices tracks into a direction that says “no hope” but it simply is a silly price on offer for New York City. On any measure he isn’t that far away from the market principles.
He was disappointing as 6/5 favourite in a Group 3 at Naas latest. He didn’t travel overly well, looked perhaps a bit distracted too. He won really well at Navan before that though and ran to topspeed 100 that day.
Blinkers on an drop to the minimum trip on fast ground at the Curragh with the stiff finish should suit perfectly. Wayne Lordan on board is not so much a negative given he’s riding plenty of winners at the moment.
New York City is not a superstar and unlikely to develop into a proper Group 1 sprinter. But this is a wide open race if the two market principles don’t fire.
BoundlessOcean won the Group 3 contest at Leopardstown in fine fashion today. The faith paid off, he was too good for this field. The significant drop in class and distance helped. He was certainly less keen – by his standards – travelled like a dream and won in the manner of a horse with bigger targets on the horizon.
Ustath didn’t quite make it a perfect day. A solid 2nd place, beaten by half a lengths. Went off too fast I reckon and then got into trouble up the stiff Hamilton finish. He’s one to keep an eye on in terms of handicap mark. If the handicapper doesn’t react too harshly then he remains of interest over 6 furlongs on fast ground.
NINE wins for Jim Bolger in the Green Room Meld Stakes!
Boundless Ocean found the Irish Derby too hot last time but lands the Group 3 highlight in commanding fashion under Kevin Manning at @LeopardstownRCpic.twitter.com/GzxLEeUprI
Vaynor goes for a hat-trick and I back him to be able to win his third race in a row. The penny has dropped and the gelding looks vastly improved from run to run ever since returning to turf this year.
He won a poor class 6 Handicap over 1m 6f at Bath in early June, although in fine fashion and running to a 4lb better topspeed than his mark then. He followed up in better grade next time at Newmarket, although dropping in trip. He won going away and with a bit in hand, also finishing much the fastest on sectionals over the last three furlongs.
He ran to a 67 topspeed rating off a 67 handicap mark and that looks pretty good given how commanding the performance was. His revised mark of 73 is more than fair and potentially on the lenient side. He could easily have more to offer and can improve again given he was also a May foal and needed time to mature.
Pace seems crucial to him. There should be enough in the race to make it a solid test. But he’s versatile enough to make his own race too. Even though he races against better rivals, there isn’t really another well handicapped individual in the field.
10pts win – Vaynor @ 7/2
……..
7.10 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f
Pub Crawl is a horse I am monitoring since the start of the season. His seasonal reappearance at Leicester was eyecatching but it was his subsequent Epsom Handicap debut that got me seriously interested in the 3-year-old gelding.
That day plenty of things went wrong but he finished incredibly strongly once out in the clear giving the impression of potentially being ahead of his mark, especially if going up in trip.
He’s clearly a tricky sort as sluggish starts are his “trademark” and he can find trouble during races as well. He put all those bad traits on show the next two times.
Although he looks regressive and hasn’t gotten any help from the handicapper, he wasn’t disgraced in his last two runs in my view. Those were competitive affairs over ten furlongs and things didn’t go his way.
He now steps up to 12 furlongs. A trip he’s not certain to stay. On the other hand things happen a whole lot slower here and that will suit. It’s not impossible on pedigree and he can run on strongly in the closing stages, which suggests he stays.
Interestingly Pub Crawl has been noted in the Weekender paper Newmarket Gallops section to have worked really well on two occasions since his Sandown flop. He’s got the assistance of excellent 5lb claiming Benoit De La Sayette in the saddle. This is also a wide open contest. He must have a strong chance to get his head in front if he stays.
Ustath is so desperately ready to win a race…. if the ground stays fast. There is some rain on the way, possibly it won’t be enough to turn the ground to slower than the current good to fast, but Hamilton has watered – of course – so you never know.
I feel he clearly needs solid fast ground to be seen to best effect these days, but I take the risk. Ustath has caught the eye a number of times this year, certainly ran better than bare forms suggest even though his ever falling mark would contradict this notion too.
He’s down to a turf mark of 50 now. He’s ran to topspeeds of 50+ a whopping 18 times in his career on all surfaces, and ran to 50 and 58 on the All-Weather earlier this year, suggesting he’s clearly up- if not a good bit better than this revised Official Rating.
He was not best placed two weeks ago at Thirsk, ran with plenty of credit over the minimum trip at Ripon and was badly hampered at Catterick. The stiff Hamilton 6 furlongs should suit perfectly, especially on fast ground.
10pts win – Ustath @ 4/1
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7.20 Leopardstown: Group Meld Stakes, 9f
You could make a case for anyone and against anyone in this field. The one that I am prepared to give a chance is Boundless Ocean. He seems underappreciated, even though normally he wouldn’t be a bet for me either.
He’s yet to better an 83 topspeed rating in nine lifetime starts, but there are some mitigating factors, hence I am prepared to give him a pass. This Group 3 event over 9 furlongs looks an ideal test that hopefully sees him run a strong race.
He caught the eye a few times this season. I certainly liked his Derby run better than the 6/8 finish would reveal. He was held up in last position and settled better than in previous races, which is not to say he wasn’t keen at different stages throughout the race, regardless.
He had a lot to do from the back of the field turning for home given the race was won at the frontend. He then made a good looking move from three furlongs out until emptying in the closing stages. The trip as beyond him in any case.
He’s a difficult colt to ride it seems. Can miss the break and often pulls really hard for his head. But he clearly got some talent. I felt he was a bit unlucky in the Gallinule Stakes when short of room at a crucial stage and pulled way too hard over 12 furlongs when runner-up subsequently.
A drop to 9 furlongs seems a wise move especially in this lesser company against some beatable rivals. There are no excuses today. I would hope he’s good enough to book himself another opportunity in higher grade subsequently.
No fifth winner in a row. Sophiesticate got close. Really close. Despite drifting out to 12/1 SP. Beaten a neck in the end after a brave performance. This was probably her best chance to win for the next while.
Mellecamp got off to a quick start, led the field and did simply too much too soon. He ran out of gas from two furlongs out and hang quite badly under pressure too. The 7.5f trip was borderline stamina wise but I maintain hope that he can win a race and is better than this mark, which may be reduced even further now. A stiff 6 furlongs looks ideal.
……….
3.10 Beverley: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Canaria Prince caught the eye a number of times with some brave front-running performances. In a competitive 20-runner handicap at Thirsk when last seen he produced his usual game effort but didn’t quite last the 6 furlongs as the winner and runner-up came from off the pace.
He bumped into some well-handicapped horses lately too. Especially the close runner-up effort behind Elzaal in May at Carlisle rates strongly in my book.
That’s when he tried the minimum trip for only the second time in his career, and also the last time until now. He had excuses on his final start in 2021, the only other run over five furlongs.
Back in May at Carlisle they came clear of the rest of the field and Canaria Prince showed that he has the speed for 5 furlongs but also has a lovely attitude as he always fights well to the line.
Fast ground, a stiff 5 furlongs at Beverley from a good draw looks an ideal combination. If he runs to same level of form as in recent weeks he’s a solid chance, if he can find a tiny bit of improvement for track and trip then he’s probably hard to beat in a poor field.
The three-year-olds Primo and Chant For More rate the biggest threats. Primo in particular, comes here in great form and may be able to defy a hefty rise in the mark, though isn’t one to trust fully and can mess up at the start.
I imagine Mokaman to jump out the quickest, grabbing the rail and setting a fast pace, with Canaria Prince tracking him. There should be no hard luck story for him at all, the race is set up for him to win.
Sophiesticate was possibly a little bit disappointing seven days ago over course and distance when attempting to step up to 10 furlongs for the first time. Her 5th place finish reads a whole lot better when accounting for the circumstances encountered that day.
She was restrained early on even though it’s quite difficult to make up ground from off the pace at Ayr on fastish ground, certainly how the track is riding more recently.
Yet she made quite eyecatching progress on the inside from three furlongs out, especially when dropping the fastest furlong split of the entire race from two to the final furlong marker. She didn’t get a clear run at a crucial stage, though, had to delay and switch as the race was gone by then.
In my eyes she clearly confirmed the promise shown in her recent Hamilton runs over shorter. The third place finish behind Shaladar last month was particularly noteworthy.
Even though Sophiesticate remains a maiden after eight career runs she gives the impression that she can be better than her current mark of 60. It’s only going to be her second attempt over ten furlongs and on pedigree she looks suited by the trip. I also take confidence from how she saw out some of her races in the past.
She has got a low weight here and I’d be surprised if she doesn’t run well. However, drawn in eight, with other fancied horses likely to get first run, it’s a clear risk that she comes too late with her challenge. I am prepared to give her the opportunity because I hope connections may have learned from last week, I continue to be drawn to her profile and think this is a winnable race.
I am also quite confident that she is well able to reverse form with Belle Of Annandale and Flying Moon if she gets a fair shot at it. And if that’s the case she’s likely the winner of the race.
10pts win – Sophiesticate @ 9.5
………
3.55 Ffos Las: Classified Stakes, 7.5f
This is such a poor race that I totally could see Mellencamp romp home to victory here…. if he’s in the right frame of mind. He looks a tricky customer but offers much more upside than the rest in this field.
He’s lightly raced and was clearly not a happy horse at Brighton the last month on his seasonal reappearance. Keen and never really travelling, I felt he wasn’t comfortable at the unique track that Brighton surely is. A more conventional, flat, galloping track, like Ffos Las, should see him travel much better.
We saw at Kempton in his final start and handicap debut as a juvenile what he potentially can do. He got behind, trailed the field, but made significant progress late and came home the strongest in third place. The form doesn’t look too shabby, certainly compared to the what the majority of horses can bring to the table here.
Mellencamp is better than a lowly 49 rated horse I am pretty certain. Whether he can bring the talent to the track remains to be seen. This yard isn’t well known for winners, whether he truly stays the trip is a question mark and he can make a mess of the start.
There are risks but there is high reward too. I am certainly hopefully he’s the best horse in the race.
On a roll. A hat-trick of winners over the last three days. Flotus won the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York in lovely fashion.
It couldn’t have gone any better: the filly broke well, led the field, although others tried to go with her. Halfway through the race I thought she may have done too much too early. But she kept going all the way strongly to the line. She proved the best filly in the race. Class prevailed.
🏆Summer Stakes (G3) 1210m, 80.000 GBP, 3yo+ mares 🇬🇧 York
Flotus 🇮🇪 (3F Starspangledbanner – Floriade, by Invincible Spirit) J : @SilvDSousa T : Simon & Ed Crisford O :Katsumi Yoshida B :Newtown Stud and T J Pabst 🥈Adaay To Remember 🥉Gale Force Mayapic.twitter.com/iQ1DJ4uHpN
Hard to believe how rapidly and dramatically the tide can turn in this game as long as you make good decisions, believe in your method (IF it’s a solid and proven method) and show consistency in the effort put in day in day out and most importantly the quality of decisions made.
Already five winners in the first week of July, that’s one more than in the entire individual months of April or May. Right now things are flowing, so to speak. But the pendulum can swing as quickly the other way again, I know all too well.
So I’ll try to stick (not always easy) to the Golden Rules regarding emotions: never too high, never too low. Because three losers on Saturday and the world looks a little bit gloomier again.
3.35 Ascot: Group 2 Summer Mile, 1m
A close one: there isn’t much between the main principles in the field on official ratings, RPR’s or topspeed – the outcome will depend on the form on the day, on pace and possibly on who gets first run round the Ascot mile.
Modern News, My Oberon and Perotto met only a fortnight ago at Windsor in a tight finish with not more than ¾ of a lengths between them as My Oberon finished strongly to get up on the line.
I felt that day Perotto could be marked up for his front-running effort when he possibly over-raced a bit in the early stages. I was hugely impressed how he fought back so gamely once headed, even after being slightly hampered over half a furlong from home. He simply didn’t give up.
He’s no star but a rock solid individual, who has sometimes lacked sharpness out of the gates but clearly responded well to front-running tactics the last time. Cheek-pieces added seem a logical move and hopefully help him to be sharp early. A prominent position on fast ground at the round course is an advantage in my book.
He acts well on fast ground, clearly stays a mile as seen when winning a strongly run Britannia last year and should go well. He’s not the likeliest winner, but certainly overpriced while better fancied horses are priced up according to reputation more so than substance, I feel.
Chindit in particular, who looks a wrong favourite. He hasn’t even cracked a 90 topspeed rating in his last six starts.
10pts win – Perotto @ 12/1
…….
4.45 Ascot: Class 3 Handicap, 1m
Washraa is clearly well handicapped on the basis of her seriously impressive Sandringham Stakes run. She travelled like a good thing, looked likely to come with a big challenge over two furlongs out, but clipped heels, stumbled badly and lost every chance, yet finished in impressive style, nonetheless.
Of course it’s hypothetical how much she would have found with a clear run. Though, I’m pretty certain she would have gone seriously close. She can race off the same mark here, which offers a great opportunity to resume the winning habit she showed in two starts before Royal Ascot.
She improved nicely since her seasonal reappearance, hinting talent already as a juvenile and should have too much talent for this slightly easier race than the rivals she encountered at Royal Ascot.
10pts win – Washraa @ 3/1
…….
5.20 Ascot: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Out From Under is a strong favourite. Only a pound up for his recent very strong Newmarket effort is possibly lenient. At prices I must select the talented filly Tarrabb, though. I reckon she is better than her official rating of 80.
Whether she is already better now, after three career runs, is the key question. She looked raw and very much learning on the job in all her races, nonetheless won really well on debut, wasn’t disgraced when beaten as runner-up subsequently after pulling hard, and lost her race at the gates at Thirsk.
She still very much caught the eye that day in particular, making good progress from the back of the field but not getting a clear run. It’s reasonable to assume she is ahead of her mark. Straight Ascot seven looks an ideal, simple test for the filly.
Two lovely winners at good prices the last two days – the ups and downs of the game…. funny how it all goes. Last night at Epsom Hector Loza went from the front and never really looked in danger once he kicked on. 13.5 was always a big price for a potentially seriously well handicapped horse if he was right.
He was. And he was a massive price for all the right reasons. Easy said in hindsight, of course. Often enough these type of horses finish bottom last (and i made a habit of backing them). But he clearly showed in his recent starts still some appetite for the game. No habit of starting slowly. Also a lovely, confident, positive ride by Jack Duern. His 3lb are highly valuable.
June started so badly with those 18 consecutive losers; July started in a rather pleasant way with four winners already. I wouldn’t mind this good spell of form to continue for a while.
……….
2.40 York: Group 3 Summer Stakes, 6f
If the effects of a tough race at Royal Ascot having left too many marks than Flotus should be hard to beat today. The filly looks still improving after a productive juvenile campaign, having ran seriously strong races in defeat the last two times this season.
Obviously her third place finish in the Commonwealth Cup rates the best piece of form in this race. She was bang up with the pace and raced pretty hard in the early stages. She couldn’t bring it quite home, but that’s no shame in such a quality Group 1 sprint.
Arguably even more impressive, in my eyes, was her desperately close runner-up effort at Haydock behind smart Sense Of Duty. The winner has franked the form in no uncertain terms and overall it looks an incredibly strong piece of form.
Flotus fought all the way to the line after attempting to lead wire to wire while Sense Of Duty was held up. I really loved how Flotus kicked on again at the final furlong marker after being heavily challenged. Great attitude!
Trip, ground and track are of no concern today. She poses the fastest speed rating in the field and has confirmed her form this season in excellent style.
There are a few dangers in the field, Gale Force Maya probably the biggest one if she could repeat her latest strong performance. She ran a fast topspeed, a clear career-best, but I wouldn’t trust her to do it again.
Hala Hala Athmani looks improving. Only her fourth start, she can do better. But drawn on the opposite from where most likely the pace will come is far from ideal.
Also on the up is Benefit, a recent Listed race winner. Zain Claudette may improve from her seasonal debut at Ascot. She was a Group 3 winner as a juvenile. But she’s got something to find even at her best with Flotus.
Third winner for the month last night with Liberty Breeze winning at Catterick in really nice fashion. It couldn’t have been going any better from start to finish. Once she hit the front she put it to bed nicely. Back in green for July, but the month is still fresh.
Mr Marvlos ran a shocker at Kempton after a poor start. My record on the All-Weather over the last twelve months is quite appalling. It’s something I need to be more selective and only back a certain type of horse.
The same goes for class 6 Handicaps. Even though Liberty Breeze was a winner in the lowest grade yesterday, my record is negative over this year and also if looking further back, even if only accounting for turf races. This might be down to the nature of these low-grade races where you never can be sure who’s there to run on merit or who’s on a going day.
I don’t find the same issues even if only one grade higher, in class 5. You would think the difference in class is marginal but it’s not. You regularly see some talented horses run in this lowly grade that can then go on to move up the “food chain”.
………..
6.53 Epsom: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
This is quite a competitive little heat, the favourite Otago certainly a fair one given his course and distance record. Most rivals can’t be discounted, though, hence I feel Otago takes too much space in this market.
The one that interests me most is Hector Loza: for a new yard with a reduced mark, a solid 3lb claimer on board, a good draw to attack the race in his usual front-running style and a track that can favour those with the speed over this trip on fast ground.
There are obvious question marks. His recent performances were poor. A change of scenery needs to sweeten him up. I have also question marks on the fast ground given his best is on the All-Weather and he wore bandages the last time out.
But at the same time Hector Loza is still rather unexposed on turf and has shown in his limited runs on the green grass that he acts on it. His career-best came in a Group 3 on fast ground over 7 furlongs a few years ago.
He stays the trip and ran eight times in his career to topspeeds of 54 plus. The last time matching this when a credible third at Wolverhampton in December when doing way too much in front.
He’s 10lb lower in the ratings today. There are reasons for that but any return to some kind of form, and if he takes well to the fast ground around Epsom, he could be hard to peg back once in front.
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