Eyecatchers #10

A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather and turf. Find all previous lists here.

Apache Star
06/03/23 – 5.30 Wolverhampton:

Quickly overcame his wide draw to move forward and grab the lead. Pushed a fast pace, going hard early on, while pestered on the outside. Still ahead approaching the final furlong and only went down late.

Excellent run off a career-lowest mark. Ran twice to higher speed ratings on the All-Weather. Clearly in shape to win again. Only one win from 19 runs is a poor return, though.

Didn’t always have luck with the draw latest. Has speed for minimum trip as well. Big chance wherever he goes next with a good draw and if he can dominate from the front. (huge nto performance 08/04 in hot race)

Race Replay

Watermelon Sugar
07/03/23 – 4.00 Lingfield:

Held up in last, going strongly as the field turned for home. Good progress against inside rail but momentum stopped, didn’t get a run until switched late to finish seriously well nearly hard held.

Held back in last races. Normally, if on a going day, right up with the pace. Seems to have speed for minimum trip but probably best over 6 furlongs.

Interesting on the All-Weather with money and a good draw; otherwise clearly one to monitor for the first weeks back on turf (subsequent run 28/03 ca be excused due to poor start).

Race Replay

Gatwick Kitten
07/03/23 – 5.10 Lingfield:

Tracked the pace going well on the inside where he came challenging from two furlongs out, before having his momentum stopped by shifting rival who closed the gap.

Comeback run, and first start for new yard. Looks in fine form. Did improve in the past for reappearance. Appears to be fairly handicapped on last seasons form.

Any improvement to come out of the yard change will see him have a cracking chance, especially back on turf over 5-6 furlongs. He loves it over the 5.5f at Brighton in particular (something seemed amiss next time out 28/03, also over 7f; somewhat worrying but will give him the chance).

Race Replay

Broughtons Flare
08/03/23 – 4.30 Lingfield:

Seriously keen the first half of race race, travelling wide, without cover. It was impressive to see him still able to finished the fastest over the last tree furlongs from off the pace.

Remains in strong form. Won three times earlier this year. Not desperately well handicapped on speed ratings off current mark, but a drop to 7 furlongs would be really interesting, if not a mile with a good pace to aim at.

Otherwise one to wait for, to drop a couple of pounds (ignore next time 25/03 over 8.5f, not the right trip).

Race Replay

Lion Ring
08/03/23 – 5.35 Kempton:

Moved quickly forward from wide draw, travelled on the outside, pushing the pace. Outpaced from over two furlongs out but gutsy and finished well to the line in hot race. Ran career-best speed rating

Was 2lb out of the weights. Recently claimed from Ireland. Ran well many times over there, but remains a maiden after 29 starts.

He can win if he drops down to class 6 over 6f I firmly believe as he may find these lower races in the UK easier (15/8 favourite nto, touched rail, short of room, odd run, can be excused).

Race Replay

Concierge
08/03/23 – 5.35 Kempton:

Travelled the back of the field. Made really good progress on the inside, showed multiple accelerations from mid-race right onward to finish the fastest from 4f out.

Excellent comeback run. He’s down to a good mark. Can be slowly away but judged on last years turf campaign, especially the first half, he is now handicapped to win soon, especially as he showed here to be in brilliant form. (nto 25/03 to be ignored; wait for return to turf).

Race Replay

Pillar Of Hope
09/03/23 – 6.15 Newcastle:

Alertly away, disputed the lead, until coming under pressure from 2 furlongs out. Kept going well before fading inside the final furlong.

Comeback run. Won twice on his return before. Probably better on turf and over 10 furlongs. Career-best in September at Redcar, when he ran to 86 speed rating. One to keep an eye out for turf in a few weeks time.

Race Replay

Piranheer
09/03/23 – 1.15 Southwell:

Poor start from #1 draw, soon detached in rear and plenty to do. Motored home from three furlongs out to finish the fastest, doing so rather easily under hands and heels.

Looks one who’s prepared for a specific day. One to monitor in the betting; judged on this form he’s certainly able to win off his current mark if the handbrake is off.

Race Replay

Love Destiny
10/03/23 – 8.30 Kempton:

Up with the good pace early on travelling wide, before settling in 2nd/3rd tracking a few lengths off. Going okay turning for home but came under severe pressure and seemingly going backwards from 2f out. Impressive how he fought back to finish 4th.

Looks to hit form. Drop in grade helped as well. Lost another 3lb on his official rating, and clearly down to dangerous mark. Possibly one ready to strike soon over 7f in similar race.

Race Replay

Kitbag
13/03/23 – 6.30 Wolverhampton:

Right up with the early and hot pace from his wide draw; was the only one who kept going in the final furlong, bar the strongly finishing favourite from off the pace.

Not exactly lightly raced. But chance given by handicapper now, and offers scope to move up in trip given his pedigree. Would be especially interesting over 7f (excellent nto 2nd place effort over 6f again, strong form possibly).

Race Replay

Nordic Glory
17/03/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Travelled in midfield, going okay and possibly poised for challenge turning for home when carrying his head awkwardly. Appeared short of room a number of times too, but kept going well. Finished seriously strongly nto (31/03) when in rear and wide.

Clearly hitting strong form. Will be big runner soon; back over 5 or 6f on turf also interesting. Still winless on grass but ran career best speed rating last summer at Goodwood. Probably best on decent ground.

Race Replay

Motagally
18/03/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Awkward away from widest draw, bumped by rival; settled in rear but seriously keen. Good progress from the back of the field against the inside rial in the home straight.

Normally 7f too far. Hasn’t shown much for nearly two years, although somewhat unlucky in final run last year. The way he finished here suggests he’s close to hitting some proper form.

Intriguing if he can find a 6f race on turf with decent to fast ground.

Race Replay

My Little Tip
24/03/23 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Went quickly forward from the widest draw to dispute early- then chase the pace. Bit flat footed over 2f out but ran on well for 4th without able to match pace of winner.

Ran well this winter at Dundalk. Down to good mark now, especially on turf over 7f. Ideally decent ground but anything good to soft to good to firm that’s not on the extremer side should be fine.

Race Replay

Apprentice
24/03/23 – 7.30 Dundalk:

Up with the pace early on from the widest draw. Travelling widest throughout, not an economical ride. Tried to apply pressure from 3f out but didn’t have pace to match of speedier rivals. Ran well to the line nonetheless.

Lightly raced, only second Handicap start. Half-sister needed 10 furlongs to win. Looks on the small size. One to monitor for the step up in trip into an easier race. Betting will also determine when she tries.

Race Replay

Macho Pride
24/03/23 – 7.15 Newcastle:

Pushed the past as part of duo until he hit the front briefly 2f out, then tired rapidly, although didn’t fully collapse and showed encouraginging signs as he went hard the first couple of furlongs.

Solid performances in recent months with ever threatening. Rewarded with a lovely mark now, ready for a 6f turf sprint on decent ground.

Well-handicapped in those conditions as he confirmed he’s probably still capable to run to the sort of level he showed last season when he ran three times to speed ratings of 57+.

Race Replay

Beau Jardine
25/03/23 – 4.40 Lingfield:

Made most of #1 draw and went forward to lead, set seriously good pace, going well and only swamped for good entering the final furlong, but continued to ran well to the line without being hammered.

Clear return to form after a long drop in the ratings on the back of poor showings ever since the early days of his career. This should be strong form.

Dropped another 2lb and of serious interest next time with any support in the market, most likely at his best over a mile.

Race Replay

Ventura Express
25/03/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Smartly away but soon restrained from his wide draw. In rear going well; steered into traffic approaching the home straight; only clear inside the final furlong finishing seriously well.

Clearly in strong form. Ran career best speed rating a few weeks earlier. Minium trip probably his best. Won last summer off 80 on turf. Not dramatically well handicapped off 79 right now but clearly ripe for a big run once the handbreak is off for good again.

Race Replay

Harry The Haggler
27/03/23 – 2.45 Lingfield:

Moved forward from wide draw and tracked the pace. Bit raw in the early parts of the race (possibly received a kick from horse in front just before the first bend). Turned wide and awkward for home and lost ground. Ran on well.

Good form. Still lightly raced as this was his handicap debut. Came back in January after being off the track and gelded since May. Appears to cry out out for a step up in trip, although I feel 7 furlongs on a less sharp track is also worth a try.

Race Replay

Harry’s Hill
25/03/23 – 2.15 Curragh:

Bit awkward away, but then showed then good ealy speed, disputing the lead. Going well for a long time before falling away in the final furlong.

Was up against it on class here as well as next time at Cork when not disgraced either. Both runs warrant upgrading as ground too soft to see him at his best.

Should find it easier in lesser grade and may get more help from handicapper too. Minimum trip on ground not properly soft remains of interest.

Race Replay

Tammany Hall
25/03/23 – 5.37 Curragh:

Travelled well enough in midfield and solid progress from 3f out, before being carried to his left from 2f out. Short of room in a pocket about 1.5f from home. Effort petered out once in the clear.

Dropped 3lb in the meantime. Infrequent winner but probably well-handicapped judged on strong runs in Handicaps last season. 5-6f with cut in the ground the ideal scenario. Should improve for this return.

Race Replay

The Toff
29/03/23 – 1.35 Lingfield:

Tracked the pace, although first couple of furlongs not the most economical, let the leader and eventual winner kick before going after him. Finished strong second and fastest last three furlongs of all.

Still a maiden, though, not without promise in a number of runs prior. Gelded in October and two good runs subsequently, but he didn’t see out a mile.

Dropped to good mark and clearly able to win over 7f furlongs. Uncomplicated sort usually up with the pace. Interesting if he can find a slightly easier race over 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Ballybaymoonshiner
29/03/23 – 2.10 Lingfield:

Went quickly forward from the widest gate (#13) to grab the lead and set a solid pace. Going well turning for home and still in front approaching the final furlong marker. Only went down inside the last half furlong.

Good performance and rock solid form. Knocked on the door multiple times despite still being a maiden after 15 runs. A mile is too far, 7f right on his limit.

Ran a number of solid speed ratings in the last weeks and months that suggest he’s well capable to win off a 51 mark. Chelmsford entry over 7f on Thursday of real interest if he’s got a good draw.

Race Replay

Nefarious:
29/03/23 – 2.45 Lingfield:

Slowly away, in rear, outpaced from over 3 furlongs out, seemingly back on the bridle entering the home straight with delayed effort from jockey who made sure the horse got the most uneconomical ride possible.

6f is on the sharp side. Wasn’t in it to win it and hasn’t been the last few times. Dropped to sexy mark and of serious interest over 7f again.

Race Replay

Phoenix Star
29/03/23 – 8.30 Kempton:

Held up well off the pace, had loads to d still over two furlongs out then picked his way through the field and fished incredibly strongly.

Dropped another 2lb for this effort. Clearly in strong form, ran well this winter on the AW as well. On a good mark for sand and turf. Ran to better speed ratings multiple time in the last half year. Effective over 5-6f.

Race Replay

Ghost Lights
31/03/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Wide draw no help, forced to settle in rear. Going okay before turned wide for challenge, finished strongly against front-runner pace bias in slowly run race. Probably decent form.

Lightly raced, handicap debut. Showed promise in three starts prior. Pedigree points to possible improvement for step up to 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Mucky Mulconry
31/03/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Path forward blocked after the start, forced to settle off the pace. Asked for effort from over 2 furlongs out. Huge finish against the inside rail in slowly run race.

Second run for new yard since moving over from Ireland. Still lightly raced enough and this effort when money was down suggests he’s capable to win off a mark around 50.

Race Replay

Dark Design
31/03/23 – 2.25 Lingfield:

Moved quickly forward from his wide draw to track eventual and very strong winner racing in second place. Didn’t have the pace to match and tired in the final furlong.

Still solid ran, as mostly he ran well in recent weeks and months. Dropped 2lb and interesting anywhere from 6-8f on AW or turf. Won off 55 and 57 last season, ran to 56 speed rating in January.

Race Replay

Sir Benedict
31/03/23 – 6.20 Newcastle:

Awkward start, in rear, behind a wall of horses from 2f out; good progress from 1f out, before stopped again with half a furlong to go.

Tricky sort who finds trouble regularly. Clearly down to good mark and in super form. With a clear run very much ready to strike next time.

Race Replay

Global Tycoon
31/03/23 – 3.15 Southwell:

Moved forward to grab the lead, not uncontested for the most part, though. Keen in the first half of the race. Going okay turning for home, only relinquished lead around the final furlong then tired rapidly.

Return off 274 days off. Not sure he stays a mile, either. Won well at Kempton over 7f last autumn. Still lightly raced. Interesting down to 7f again off his reassessed 56 mark.

Race Replay

Cruise
01/04/23 – 4.25 Kempton:

Raced in last, bit raw and fresh, niggled; attempted to make challenge from 2f out when going best toward the inside, path blocked and short of room until jockey takes big pull at the final furlong marker to get space on the outside. Finished easily the best under hands and heels.

Fair to assume she would have won with a clear run, perhaps even if she would have been ridden more vigorously in the final furlong in any case. Depth of form questionable, though.

Changed yards during winter for £27,000. First start since August. Should improve. Opening mark possibly lenient on this evidence. May be to short a price next time (entry 11/04).

Race Replay

Greatgadian
01/04/23 – 3.35 Doncaster:

The wide draw was far from an advantage, he travelled in rear and had to come around the widest outside on the far side to make a challenge from over two furlongs out. Flat footed from 1f out but kept going well to the line.

In solid form all winter. Definitely prefers better ground than the deep going in the Lincoln. Stays 10 furlongs and now down to a mark of 98 interesting on better ground.

Race Replay

Glory Fighter
02/04/23 – 5.40 Doncaster:

Went forward, but not before the jockey lost his irons early; quickly recovered, led but closely followed. Under pressure from 2f out and gradually weakened, though, ran well to the line for 3rd place.

Good reappearance. Down to fair mark. Caught the eye a few times last year without winning. Pretty ground independent, bar proper fast ground. Although, best performances came on good to soft to genuine good ground, over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Toussarok
03/04/23 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Led, setting a steady pace, travelling full of enthusiasm. Challenged from two furlongs and no chance with the winner, but impressive how he kept answering the calls, stuck his neck out and found for pressure.

Clearly in good nick. On good mark. Won off 79 last year on turf. Ideally drops down to 6f on decent ground. Otherwise happy to wait, as if he drops a few pounds he’ll be seriously well handicapped.

Race Replay

Cavalier Approach
04/04/23 – 8.00 Southwell:

Bit awkward away from the gate. Travelled well against inside rail before short of room over 2 furlongs out, lost ground and momentum but jockey also didn’t seem particularly bothered. Finished nicely under light hands and heels.

Clearly never been in it to win it and never has been in five career runs. Worth to monitor the market the next few times. Seems to be in good shape.

Comes down to solid mark now, ran 55 speed rating last autumn which looks legit given the depth of that form. Minimum trip should be fine for now. May have some scope to move up in trip, too.

Race Replay

Revoquable
04/04/23 – 3.45 Thirsk:

Wide draw forced him to settle well off the pace. Trailed as the field turned for home, delayed challenge before getting into the clear about two furlongs from home. Ran on well but couldn’t get back to winner. Finished best of all.

Down to good mark now, after largely uneventful All-Weather season since a strong 1m win at Southwell in October.

Ran to 59 speed rating that day, hence fair to assume off 54 (if left untouched by handicapper) he’s got to be an interesting runner on possibly better ground over 7-8f.

Race Replay

Makalu
04/04/023 – 4.15 Thirsk:

Unusual good start but wide draw forced him to settle in rear. Trailed when turning for home but made excellent progress from 3f out before not quite the clearest of runs from two furlongs from home. Finished best.

Excellent reappearance and return to form after a bunch of poor performances last season. Clearly capable off 55, having ran to better speed ratings in the past.

One who wasn’t the sharpest out of the gate and needs a bit of luck due to his racing style. Ideally better ground, 6-7 furlongs fine.

Race Replay

Captain Corcoran
04/04/23 – 5.45 Thirsk:

Awkward start, held up in rear, travelled well, good progress from three furlongs out but not clear run entering the final furlong. Finished nicely nonetheless under pretty easy ride.

Clearly ridden with intend not to show all of his cards here. Usually up with the pace. Nice reappearance after light All-Weather campaign in any case. On a good turf mark and ready to rock any time soon.

Race Replay

Coast
05/04/23 – 2.25 Wolverhampton:

Moved quickly forward and set fast pace. Had the field on the stretch and still ahead approaching final furlong before fading badly.

Doesn’t stay 7f. Strong run, backed up recent massive runner-up performance. Down to six furlongs will become interesting. Although has a couple of 7f entries. Hopefully she can get find a way to drop below 54 to become seriously intriguing.

Race Replay

Totnes
05/04/23 – 3.00 Wolverhampton:

Travelled very strongly in rear of the field, good progress from 3f out. going much the best. Challenge petered out from over 1f out as she hang badly to the left.

Can be excused. Perhaps something wasn’t right. She was ultra-impressive weeks earlier over the same C&D, winning in the manner of a talented filly on only her second career run.

She should be better than than the 71 opening mark. Pedigree points to stamina for more improvement to come beyond 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Albert Cee
05/04/23 – 4.30 Kempton:

Off to a quick start, right up with the hot pace, travelled strongly and kicked on over 2f out. Beaten by better horse on the day but impressive as he fought back gamely late.

Could improve for this outing, first one for a new yard and as a 3-year-old. Uncomplicated sort, and if not too harshly reassessed by the handicapper, of real interest in similar race with a little bit less pace to compete.

Race Replay

Intervention
06/04/23 – 6.30 Southwell:

Hard to control as overly keen early on, led go after first two furlongs. Established comfortable lead but did way too much and faded badly in the home straight. 1m is too far, in any case.

Highly frustrating sort due to incredible consistently. Ran numerous times really well over the winter (inlcuding lto catching the eye). But in the grip of the handicapper. Ran two career best speed ratings this winter as well.

Perhaps it was a final bow by connections that he need help from the handicapper to allow him to run a race without intent to do well. One to monitor, if he can find a way to fall to 75 he’d be intriguing over 6f on the AW. Would like to see more assistance before being interested on turf.

Race Replay

Creme De Cacao
06/04/23 – 7.30 Southwell:

Keenly moved forward and led, set good pace, although closely followed and put under pressure around the bend. Kicked on while travelling on the bridle approaching the home straight. Tired from 2f out but nice attitude as she fought back gamely all the way to the line.

If she can settle a bit better, which isn’t impossible, given this was the handicap debut for this lightly raced filly (April foal), she offers upside off her opening mark. Not impossible that she can drop to 6 furlongs also.

Race Replay

Compare
06/04/23 – 2.10 Chelmsford:

Awkward start, heavily bumped a rival, led early on before settling in third. Kicked on nicely against inside rail approaching the home straight; hit the front 1f out, strong run to the line but no chance with winner from off the pace eventually.

Possibly strong form. Winner won back-to-back with this; third won last time out. Others looked solid in this field. He was a 50/1 shot, clearly outran his price.

Still lightly raced enough. Offers upside over a mile ran at a decent pace. May stretch out to 10 furlongs; either way deserves another chance.

Race Replay

Mr Escobar
07/04/23 – 2.05 Lingfield:

Travelled very smoothly tracking the pace. Confident ride, jockey took multiple pulls as they turned the home bend, seemingly going much the best. Didn’t get the gap in the home straight and minded in the closing stages.

Short-priced favourite, Ryan Moore spoke in glowing words beforehand; an obvious one, perhaps too short next time. Lightly raced, improved nicely at Dundalk in maiden company. Clearly ahead of his mark over these sort of trips.

Race Replay

Captain Dandy
07/04/23 – 1.40 Bath:

Had no chance from the widest draw but did exceptionally well against the bias finishing best of those drawn in the high numbers.

Confirmed huge impression from lto win at Wolverhampton when he finished seriously well after missing the break and giving the field a headstart.

Tricky sort who can miss the break, did much better here at Bath and perhaps the penny has dropped, somewhat. One to keep an eye on for headgear and/or for being gelded.

Race Replay

Madam Fenella
07/04/23 – 2.15 Bath:

Awkward start, wore hood to post; she’s tricky as the past tells. Travelled well and did seriously well to finish as close as she did from her wide draw.

Had limited opportunities on turf in handicap company. Ascot run from last September noteworthy. Probably not much scope in terms of moving up in trip beyond 6 furlongs.

Intriguing once she drops down to class 6 on turf. She seems to handle soft ground but has shown to stay 6 furlongs as well, possibly interesting on better ground.

Race Replay

Gioia Cieca
08/04/23 – 2.25 Musselburgh:

Not quite the sharpest of starts early on; soon tracked the pace and was going okay with bit of progress on inside before heavily under pressure from 2f out. Stuck with it and ran well to the line, no match for winner, though.

Good to see him finish well after break and first time since a wind OP. Can be upgraded as softish ground far from ideal. Hasn’t ran overly impressive speed ratings yet but deserves a chance over 7f on decent to fast ground.

Possibly well-handicapped in those conditions judged on last season. Not one to give to many chances but worth to wait for his conditions, in any case.

Race Replay

Rock Melody
08/04/23 – 4.45 Musselburgh:

In rear racing against the inside rail with plenty to do over 1f out. Rapid progress but squeezed and short of room in the closing stages; finished really well.

Lovely return from a break and for a new yard. Trip on the sharp side. Better over 6 and 7 furlongs. On a workable mark, has ran to similar speed ratings already.

Race Replay

Mustaffiz
08/04/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Missed break, keen afterwards. Uneventful run. Caught the eye a number of times when he ran well in last weeks and entered on Eyecatchers #7.

Really liked his lto Kempton run as well. However, after he tried a number of times now it’s clear now he’s in the grip of the handicapper and needs some help, hence no surprise to see him having missed the break here.

Monitor as he falls below 60 (ideally 58 and lower) for return to front-running tactics over stiff 5f or 6f.

Race Replay

Three Beauz
09/04/23 – 2.05 Southwell:

Bit awkward away, bumped by rival, possibly lit up as a consequence. Travelled keenly, approached 2f powerfully, though. Behind wall of horses, had to switch very wide, made good ground all the time. Couldn’t quite sustain effort.

Off a break, still lightly raced and offers plenty of upside. Looks capable to win off current mark if he can progress from this run. Number of good performances as a juvenile, also on turf. Decent ground and minimum trip would be intriguing.

Race Replay

Flat Horses To Follow 2023 – Group Class

Final part of a series that tries to pick out intriguing horses to follow for the new 2023 flat season.

The main focus for this third piece is going to be on potential Group performers that offer significant upside based on what they have shown as juveniles.

Bertinelli
3-yo colt / Aiden O’Brien / Justify – Together Forever

Finished a long way clear of the main bulk of the field for a good second place on debut, while he didn’t enjoy quite a clear run. Fine 74 speed rating confirmed the promise.

No doubt, he clearly needs further than a mile, as was also evident on his second and final juvenile start when he battled hard to land a Dundalk maiden, despite the jockey reporting afterwards that the colt got struck into behind.

Was also reportedly weak and had a lot of growing to do last year, which puts this two performances into even better perspective. Apparently he had been working nicely since being back in training before hitting a slight setback suffering from a stone bruise.

He’s one who may need time anyways, and to follow beyond the spring races.

Coppice
3-yo filly / J&T Gosden / Kingman – Helleborine

Was slow out of the gate on debut but quickly recovered, settling in midfield. Travelled strongly, and it was impressive to see her accelerating twice in the closing stages.

She obviously has a lot of speed and a potent turn of foot but also hit the line full of running, suggesting a mile isn’t out of question, which would be in line with her pedigree.

She is, however, a full-sister to classy sprinter Calyx; the jury is out whether she stays a mile run at a strong pace, given this debut performance ended in a sprint finish.

Nonetheless, she ran to a solid 72 speed rating on debut. The form was boosted by the runner-up who was an easy winner next time out.

There is clearly more to come, she has a Guineas entry, and is one I wouldn’t lose faith in too quickly if early signs are that she doesn’t turn out to be a filly for the Newmarket Classic.

Continuous
3- yo Colt / Aiden O’Brien

Intriguing pedigree: by Japanese sire Heart’s Cry – who was a winner of the Sheema Classic in 2006 – out of Fluff, which was down to pure chance because the mare was supposed to be covered by Deep Impact, who sadly passed away right before she arrived in Japan.

Continues is the only son of Heart’s Cry actively racing in the UK and Ireland (possibly Europe) right now. His sire is well known for stamina in Japan, having sired Japan Cup winners and other multiple international top-class horses over middle-distance top-class .

Won well at the Curragh over 7 furlongs when he made all on debut, although was pestered by a stable mate. Kicked on over 2 furlongs out and won well in the end. Ran to an 80 speed rating.

Went on to win a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud over a mile. Gutsy performance in a slowly run race that didn’t suit him. Showed lovely attitude in those first two career runs.

A mile should be the absolute minimum but I expect Continuous to really come alive once he steps up in trip. Soft ground won’t bother him, either. He looks a good Derby prospect at this time, possibly even one for the St. Leger.

Couplet
3-yo filly / Harry Eustace / Zoustar – Arabda

Impressive Haydock maiden winner on debut, clocking a 78 speed rating even as things didn’t go smoothly on the day. She showed adversity and may prefer better ground as well.

Pedigree suggests a mile is going to be a stretch but she goes to the Fred Darling so we’ll find out sooner rather than later. The way she finished on debut, hitting the line strongly as the only filly finninsh over 100% suggests she could enjoy the step up to 7 furlongs, though.

The sire was a Grade 1 winner over 7 furlongs and the dam was able to stretch out to a mile, though, both did their best work on better ground.

Classic
3-yo colt / Richard Hannon / Dubawi – Date With Destiny

Possibly had excuses when last seen in October in a good Conditions race as he was keen and held up on his first try over a mile.

Better judged on three efforts prior. Strong fourth on debut in a hot maiden race at Newbury, ran to 80 speed rating there. Quite green when a neck beaten runner-up next time.

Created a huge impression when winning a Novice Stakes at Newmarket over 7furlongs in soft conditions in his third career run. He was still quite keen throughout, yet it was impressive how he kicked easily from the front and finishing strongly up the stiff finish.

His pedigree suggests a mile won’t be a problem, even 10 furlongs seem realistic. Obviously he has to settle better. Hopefully with age and experience he can relax better. No doubt there is a serious engine under the hood.

Desert Order
3-yo colt/ Charlie Appleby / Dubawi –
Duchess Of Berry

Third and second places in first two starts behind smart winners who went on to subsequent Group 1 placings. He won his next two runs over 7 furlongs before the end of the season.

He won a competitive maiden contest at York before showing tremendous attitude to win on handicap debut when he struggled for a clear passage until late off a mark of 92, suggesting there is much more to come.

Uncomplicated sort, he should really enjoy a step up in trip, which can bring out more improvement. A mile won’t be an issue, an there is enough stamina in his pedigree to believe 10 furlongs won’t pose too much trouble, either.

Highly likely to improve as a 3-year-old and looks a Group winner in the making.

Enfjaar
3-yo colt / Roger Varian / Lope De Vega – Tesoro

You just had to love his debut performance, visually, and also on the clock a good 75 Speed Rating, on ground possibly not what he really wants.

Especially as he didn’t appear totally happy at the track in a hot field. he appeared flat footed halfway through the race but ran on in superb style to land a race that looks pretty strong form.

He looks sure to appreciate a step up to a mile; beyond that is a question mark. The dam was a sprinter, although is by Galileo. The Full-sister won over 8.5 furlongs but never tried beyond that.

He hasn’t got any fancy entries at this stage. So question marks on how he has wintered. Also racing in a hood on a debut is something to note. Nonetheless, he looks ready to step into pattern class this season, if all is well.

Hi Royal
3-yo colt / Kevin Ryan / Kodiac – Majestic Roi

Made a hugely impressive debut in a hot York maiden when third behind Desert Order. Showed tremendous change of gear from the back of the field in the last three furlongs.

Mad no mistake when much more prominently ridden at Ayr next time, as he stepped up to a mile without any issue to win cosily.

He’s a big colt, reportedly has wintered well and is expected to come into his own once he steps up to ten furlongs. However, he’s likely to go for a Guineas trial first.

He could be somewhat of a “dark horse” for the Guineas perhaps, given the solid speed he showed in his first two career starts over 7f and a mile. Clearly he’s seriously talented, which is no surprise given his sublime pedigree.

Mostabshir
3-yo colt / J&T Gosden / Dark Angel – Handassa

Quickened nicely on debut from a prominent racing position after overcoming a wide draw easily. Was going away nicely, although speed rating on the lower end for what I’d like to see for top-class prospects.

You can only beat what’s put in front of you and he’s excepted to improve as a 3-year-old; the dam’s offspring often improves with age and experience.

He’s got a Guineas entry. Not sure whether his stamina lasts beyond a mile. A strongly run mile may be the ideal scenario.

Slipofthepen
3-yo colt / J&T Gosden / Night Of Thunder – Free Verse

An obvious one: made huge impression on Kempton Park debut last November when he overcame greenness to produce a fine change of gear and win in visually arresting style. Good 76 speed rating for this debut performance too.

By 2000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder, he clearly has a lot of speed but the way he finished over so strongly over a mile as a juvenile gives ample hope that he can extend to 10 furlongs.

Derby hopes are misplaced, most likely. He starts of at Kempton on 10/03 and has Guineas and Dante Stakes entries as well. It’ll be hugely exciting to follow his journey.

Soul Sister
3-yo filly / J&T Gosden / Frankel – Dream Peace

Showed superb attitude and staying qualities on her debut at Doncaster in deep ground as she stayed on strongly to get up in the dying strides in a head-to-head battle.

She possesses a lot of stamina and will have no issues stepping to 10 furlongs, and likely beyond. Her full-siblings have been pretty smart in their own right, often done their best work with cut in the ground.

Remarquee
3-yo filly / Ralph Beckett / Kingman – Regardez

Looked quite raw and clueless on her first day at school in September. Even more so impressive how she ran home strongly in the final furlong . It was also a good debut performance on speed ratings (79).

Should easily get further and is expected to improve once she steps up to a mile and beyond. The dam won over 1m 2f and stayed a bit further too.

As a daughter of Kingman you would hope this combination makes for a fine middle-distance prospect. She may go to some of the trials and we’ll then find out more about her trajectory.

Saturday Selections: 8th April 2023

Off to a good start in April: Emperor Spirit (11/1, SP 10/1) won his Lingfield race that surprisingly went nearly exactly as outlined beforehand and provided the second winner for the month.

Even though, I must admit, halfway through the race I felt he went too hard from the front. Turns out Jamie Spencer judged it to perfection as Emperor Spirit held on (for dear life) but had enough left in the tank to get home.

Only ten minutes later a bit of a downer: Reach was a major disappointment. She fell away quickly in the closing stages and never looked like winning. I fancied her a lot, and am prepared to give her one more chance.

…….

5.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 6f

Inchbae was denied by the late charging Jenny Renn last month at this track, although over the two furlongs shorter 1m 4f distance. These two meet again here in this Handicap for Amateur riders and seem to be the horses to focus on.

The step up in trip swings it toward Inchbae for me, who should appreciate the extra distance. There is plenty of stamina in her pedigree and she’s one you’d hope she can improve with age and experience.

Still a maiden, but she showed promise toward the end of last season, especially when runner-up at Chelmsford over 10 furlongs off 54. She changed yards afterwards and didn’t run as bad as the pure form suggests on stable debut at Dundalk.

She improved dramatically for that outing next time at Wolverhampton. obviously a tricky sort, she didn’t see the late effort from Jenny Renn coming on the outside from back of the field there and didn’t have time to respond, I believe.

This 1m 6f contest looks an even poorer race, with very few proper dangers. The #13 isn’t ideal on paper but unlikely to pose issues. There isn’t much pace here, so I’d expect her to move across quickly to establish potentially a soft lead.

She may have enough speed to bring it home once competent amateur rider Eireann Cagney kicks-on from about 3.5 furlongs from home – the way I envision it with naïve hope.

10pts win – Inchbae @ 6/1

Friday Selections: 7th April 2023

First winner for the month on Wednesday: Bang On The Bell (9/2; 4/1 SP) won his race at Wolverhampton. Although, not quite in the manner I had anticipated as he blew the start and had do it the hard way. Thankfully, he held on and showed grit in the final furlong.

Dog Fox was withdrawn, unfortunately; after misbehaving in the stalls; there’ll be another day.

Sharon Macready refused to settle as they tried to drop her in. I could have seen that coming. She’s done it before. Like…. always. Even over the minimum trip. Backing her over 6 furlongs was simply a poor decision.

……….

3.15 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

The “All-Weather Vase Sprint Handicap” looks one of those uncompetitive-competitive handicaps. Plenty of runners, more or less similar ability, plenty of chances without any real standout and very few well-handicapped ones, if any.

Hence I’m prepared to give Emperor Spirit a solid shout at this, who seems overpriced in this field, for a myriad of reasons.

For one, it’s only two runs back that he seriously caught the eye at Newcastle:

He grabbed the lead promptly, set a red hot pace, but was pestered by a rival throughout, yet travelled strongly, before drifting across the track as he got really tired in the closing stages and was eventually overpowered by two horses from off the pace to finish third.

That was a strong performance and rock solid form, and his subsequent and most recent run doesn’t distract from it in my view – he was well beaten when last seen but that was a hot 5 furlong sprint on his debut for a new yard. No doubt the minimum trip is too sharp.

He ran pretty well all winter, though; especially over this course and distance in early December off 5lb higher than he’s currently rated, going off the 15/8 favourite, only beaten late in the day – doing so with cheek pieces fitted, which are on here again after an absence recently.

Subsequent form did suggest he ran not far below that level of form; although he’s a horse who finds it tough to get his head in front, hence he has fallen ever so slightly down to a 85 mark now.

He ran to higher speed ratings in the past, so there is an argument to be made that he’s weighted to win.

The race may develop to his advantage: he could establish an easy lead and good early rhythm and subsequently tough to peg back for a third career victory. He’s got the benefit of the #1 draw and there’s not too much pace pressure especially as other prominent horses are wider drawn.

10pts win – Emperor Spirit @ 11/1

…….

3.25 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 3.5f

On the basis of ground, trip and handicap mark one can rule out more than half the field. Gastronomy seems the default favourite given his unexposed profile for strong connections, but is clearly poor value given the short price with questions to answers on ground and trip.

Nonetheless, the one I have an eye on is the 5-yeaer-old mare Reach, who could be quite well handicapped here.

She’s one I flagged in the Handicappers To Follow piece, although I didn’t expect to find such an ideal opportunity so soon after publishing the list.

Reach is very lightly raced for her age. She created a strong impression on her first two starts before winning in emphatic fashion at Pontefract in autumn, when upped to 12 furlongs.

She travelled strongly on Handicap debut subsequently, but faded badly over the shorter 10 furlongs; perhaps she paid for having three runs in rather quick succession.

The mare looks all stamina and should have more to offer off 74 going up in trip again, especially with cut in the ground.

I’ve got little doubts about her race fitness. I expect her to be ready to go. Connections couldn’t have hoped for a better race to kick-off the season.

10pts win – Reach @ 15/2

Flat Horses To Follow 2023: Older Handicappers

Second part of a series that tries to pick out intriguing horses to follow for the new 2023 flat season.

The main focus is going to be on handicappers that may fly under the radar or offer significant upside, judged on their current BHA Official Rating.

Age Of Sail
4-yo gelding / Garry Moore / Frankel – Concordia

Caught the eye on all his last three starts on the flat in 2022. Doesn’t do things in a rush but has been knocking on the door over 10-12 furlongs last season.

Perhaps would benefit from cut in the ground. Deep ground over 10 furlongs interesting, but can see him move all the way up to 2 miles as well. Plenty of stamina and soft ground form in the pedigree.

Tried hurdling with varying degree of success over the winter. If he returns to the flat now as a 4-year-old he could be ready to exploit his 76 OR in the right races.

Al Husn
4-yo filly / Roger Varian / Dubawi – Hadaatha

Unbeaten in three starts in 2022. Last two strong performances in Newmarket Handicaps. Impressive when last seen, travelling well, before becoming a bit disorganised in a rough finish from 3f out before finishing really strongly to win.

Still quite lightly raced and open to improvement. Deserves a chance in listed race but also must have a chance to stay beyond 10f given she settles better now and has the pedigree.

Alseeyerthere
5-yo mare / Steph Hollinshead /Al Kazeem – Magic Destiny

Only three career runs, now eligible for Handicaps, should be ready to exploit opening mark. Caught the eye the last two runs, although didn’t seem to get home over 7 furlongs.

Full-sister to two winners over 6- to 7 furlongs, generally on better to fast ground. She showed good early speed in her July race and was keen the last two times to suggest she may follow more closely the route of Al Simmo who is a 88 rated multiple winner over 6 furlongs.

Blue Daisy
4-yo filly / George Boughey / Teofilo – Balsamine

Showed glimmers of ability toward the end of last season. Especially encouraging the way she stayed on in her final run in 2022 when not getting the best of runs from the back of the field.

Seems a temperamental filly as the headgear combination suggests as well. Off a 60 OR she appeals if she moves up in trip, though. Especially with cut in the ground on turf would be an intriguing runner.

Caph Star
4-yo Colt / Roger Varian / Siyouni – Caskelena

Promising on debut when 3rd in a hot race, running to 71 speed rating. Seriously impressive at Kempton subsequently, producing a rapid acceleration.

Not seen since then. Cost £200k as a yearling. Has the pedigree to improve this year, especially if he moves up in trip. Obvious question mark over long absence, though.

Desert Glory
4-yo gelding / James Tate / Churchill – Polygon

Green and raw on both starts last year. Badly outpaced when last seen. Looks to hit the ground hard.

Was gelded in January. Cost £55k as a yearling. Family does well on softer ground and All-Weather. He looks one sure to appreciate a step up in trip as well. Looks likely to improve as a 4yo – if he returns.

Floral Splendour
4-yo filly / Ian Jardine / Farhh – Red Tulip

Lightly raced filly. Not disgraced in heavy ground in final start in 2022. Eyecatching on her penultimate start at Musselburgh, when heavily bumped early and a clear run denied in the home straight.

Looks open to progress, especially if she moves up to a mile, possibly beyond, on decent ground then.

Flagman
5-yo gelding / Deborah Faulkner / Kingman – Sense Of Joy

Promising performance in October at Kempton when he stayed on well. Badly outpaced in the home straight the next two times. Although, showed good early speed from the gate and travelled well.

Still lightly raced in interesting off 53 mark if he returns and moves up in distance, seems to be crying out for a trip. Full-sister won over 9 furlongs a Leopardstown maiden.

Invisible Friend
4-yo filly / Kevin Ryan / Sea The Stars – Stealth Missile

Lightly raced full-sister to smart handicapper Irish Legend. Fetched €160k as a foal. Won well on only second career outing despite showing serious signs of greenness, as she did on debut as well. Hasn’t been seen since August, though.

The form doesn’t amount to much as she only had three rivals to beat and the runner-up is rated 52. The fact she kicking clear nicely at a track seemingly she doesn’t enjoy, over a trip probably sharp enough, is encouraging.

The full-sister needed time as well and progressed nicely as a 4-year-old, stayed 10 furlongs+, and was potent on the All-Weather.

Majestic Fighter
4-yo gelding / H&R Charlton / Teofilo – Majestic Manner

Ran a huge race when last seen at Kempton after going wide all the way finishing very strongly. Ran a number of strong efforts in handicaps throughout the year.

Could have more to offer as a 4yo as he moves up in trip. Gives the impression he can get further than a mile, and has a chance on pedigree. Ran to an 80 speed rating, which means any improvement will see him become suddenly quite well-handicapped, potentially.

Prakasa
4-yo filly / Roger Varian / The Gurkha – Khor Sheed

Showed her inexperience in all three starts. Won well at Kempton at the second time of asking, though. Form isn’t worth much but she showed she doesn’t lack a change of gear. Travelled strongly dropped to a mile but not good enough on the day when last seen.

Looks open to plenty of progress if moving up to 10 furlongs. Family stays well. Opening mark of 78 looks potentially lenient.

Rampage
4-yo gelding / TG McCourt / New Bay – Hall Hee

Improved dramatically for his first Handicap start in July at Thirsk over a mile. Arguably unlucky to be beaten by tiny margin and the way the race panned out.

Was sold for £1,000 subsequently, after another encouraging run at Newcastle as he was up there for long time and possibly needed the run then. Also may find a mile too sharp.

Moved to Ireland in the meantime and travelled really well for a long time in a Handicap last week. Should have more to offer up in trip, especially of a potentially lenient mark. Dam’s offspring tends to improve over 10f, and runs well on the All-Weather.

Reach
5-yo mare / M&D Easterby / Sea The Stars – Ameliorate

Very lightly raced for her age. She created a good impression on her first two starts before winning in emphatic fashion at Pontefract in autumn, when upped to 12 furlongs.

She travelled strongly on Handicap debut subsequently, but faded badly over the shorter 10 furlongs; perhaps she paid for having three runs in rather quick succession.

The mare looks all stamina and should have more to offer off 74 going up in trip again, possibly with cut in the ground.

Vazire
4-yo filly / Andrew Balding / Frankel – Aricia

Lightly raced filly who improved nicely last year. Stepped up to middle distance without a problem at Chester after giving impression she would enjoy a trip. She won really well when last seen the way she travelled and kicked on.

The Chester form is strong and ties in well with the improve she showed from the previously quite eyecatching Sandown performance.

Every chance she can improve as a 4-year-old over middle-distance. Family tends to stay well, therefore even 12 furlongs not out of question. A mark off 82 could underestimate her early in the season – if she’s still in training, as she wasn’t seen since last June.

Wanees
4-yo gelding / Charles Hills / Le Havre – Waldnah

Was a super progressive three-year-old in 2022. Impressive the way he won when last seen at Haydock. Did it easily after pulling early on. Tends to be quite keen, but should stay 10 furlongs on pedigree if he can settle.

Every chance for further improvement as a 4-year-old and gelding. Revised handicap mark gives him plenty of options in hot handicaps or potentially moving up to lower graded level in the early parts of the season.

The Lincoln run last month can be excused given the ground was way too soft for him. But the run may help him to be a backable price next time.

Wednesday Selections: 5th April 2023

4.45 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

In an ideal world Bang On The Bell would race off his soon to be revised mark, or even a couple of pounds lower, but I feel even off 71 he’s got a fine chance to win in this race against beatable opposition, especially with the race possibly to pan out in his favour.

I don’t judge him harshly on the way he dropped away last time he was seen. That day he had to overcame the widest draw – which he did – but was then way too keen in the first half of the race over 6 furlongs that was a stretch.

He’s better judged on his penultimate run over this course and distance as he encounters it here, when once again he enjoyed a perfect and quick start from the widest draw to get to the leaders right before the field entered the turn.

He pushed a strong pace as part of trio, before getting quite tired in the home straight once again. That looks good form, and was an improvement on his comeback run prior.

In my view the last two runs warrant an upgrade. In that light, it’s clear he’ll enjoy the return to the minimum trip, this time without the disadvantage of a wide draw.

There’s only one other true pace horse in this small field, so it won’t be any hassle to get to the front. It should help that the other possible pace setter, Glorious Charmer – who doesn’t seem well handicapped now – is going to be there to help push a good pace,.

This scenario in turn may help Bang On The Bell to relax a bit better and then enjoy possibly the run of the race turning for home. He ran to a 72 speed rating back in August over this C&D, and 70 in December over 5f at Chelmsford – therefore he’s clearly capable to run to the level required to win here.

10pts win – Bang On The Bell @ 9/2

……

4.55 Nottingham: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

A minefield of unknowns but there is no question Dog Fox is the most intriguing one here. He’s one I flagged up in my 3-year-old handicappers to follow list and feel this represents a superb opportunity to get off the mark.

This confidence may seem misplaced given Dog Fox showed nothing in three runs as a juvenile. However, those runs came over trips that were clearly on the sharp side.

He’s bred to enjoy middle-distance trips and is expected to improve dramatically in handicap company going up in trip. The majority of his dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs, as his sire Cityscape has a 10.1 stamina index to offer.

An opening mark of 63 looks stiff judged purely on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.

The soft ground won’t be an issue I reckon. The sire and dam enjoyed cut in the ground during their respective racing careers.

10pts win – Dog Fox @ 3/1

……

5.00 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Am I really prepared to follow Sharon Macready over the cliff? I certainly am! This filly is hugely frustrating but no doubt has some talent and is well handicapped if she can finally relax a bit better. She’s ready to win, sooner rather than later.

Going up in trip does seem counterintuitive. But I do believe the trip doesn’t really matter. She stays the distance as she is a proven distance winner and ‘all’ it takes is her to relax in the early parts a bit better. Without dropping her head she won’t get home even over three furlongs.

I can make excuses for her recent run at Southwell. It was as strange race, although one that looks strong the way the form worked out. Sharon Macready had an award start, also bumped rival, was a huge price on the day and never looked like the same enthusiastic individual she did prior.

I liked those three earlier runs this year – she showed often blistering early speed but made life difficult for herself. She is now down to a 60 rating – clearly she is better than that, also given her full-sister has multiple wins at 60+ to her name,

The race could work out well from a pace scenario. The low draw will help her to get to the front. She may enjoy an easy enough lead. She may hard to peg back over this course and distance if she finds a good rhythm.

10pts win – Sharon Macready @ 5/1

Flat Horses To Follow 2023: 3-year-old Handicappers

First part of a series that tries to pick out a number of intriguing horses to follow for the new 2023 flat season.

The main focus is going to be on handicappers that may fly under the radar or offer significant upside, judged on their current BHA Official Rating.

Ana Emaraaty
3-yo gelding / Owen Burrows / Awtaad – Sundus

Very green on debut and sole start in August. Gelded in the meantime. Will be interesting once in Handicap company over 10 furlongs.

Looks likely to enjoy softish conditions, appears to have quite a high knee action. Dam’s offspring tends to perform best with cut in the ground, so does Awtaad’s offspring (3yo Handicappers).

Amleto
3-yo colt / William Haggas / Sea The Stars – Holy Moon

Green on debut, improved effort in strong Kempton race subsequently, travelled quite nicely. Big drifter in the betting on both occasions.

Full-brother to Sea Of Class. Retains a Derby entry but unlikely to turn out that good now. Nonetheless, bound to improve dramatically as 3-year-old compared to what he showed last season, especially if he goes up in trip.

Alhambra Palace
3-yo colt / William Haggas / Le Havre – Lady Francesca

Slowly into stride in both career runs. Bit unlucky on debut, but didn’t get hard ride after becoming short of room over 2f out in heavy going. Finished well under easy ride at Kempton.

Was a £58k foal, a year later sold for £230k as a yearling. Related to some good winners and has pedigree to do well on turf as well as All-Weather, most likely seen to best effect once up in trip as a half-brother to Northumberland Plate 4th place finisher.

As a son of Le Havre he will enjoy races with emphasis on stamina. Needs one more run to qualify for a handicap mark.

Barrier
3-yo filly / Andrew Balding / Australia – Pure Fantasy

Temperamental, had issues out of the gate on both career runs. Final 2022 performance can be upgraded when unlucky in the home straight.

One to keep an eye out for the opening mark, very much depends on final qualifying start. A mark in the 70’s or lower would be interesting as she steps up in trip. Will likely need plenty of cut in the ground for anything below longer trips.

Australia’s record with 3yo fillies is strong; generally with 3yo’s in lower grade handicaps on stiff tracks, with cut in the ground is noteworthy and ties in nicely with the overall profile of the filly.

Birchmore Len
3-yo gelding / Michael Madgwick / Sixties Icon – Steel Free

Showed absolutely nothing in three runs as a juvenile. Opening mark of 61 is harsh on that basis.

Will only show his true colours once hew moves significantly up in trip, most likely 12 furlongs. Full-brother to modest staying handicapper Steel An Icon. Trainer knows this family well having trained the dam and some offspring.

Chinthurst
3-yo gelding / Jim Boyle / Nathanial – Sonnetation

Improved markedly on Handicap debut at Brighton. Found himself multiple times outpaced but kept showing positive attitude as he finished well up the hill and achieved a 53 speed rating.

The performance warrants an upgrade, as the form has worked out well in the meantime, and he starts the season only a pound higher than that day, (OR 55) now as a gelding.

Even more so, as a son of Nathanial you can be almost certain he will improve as a 3-year-old and as he moves up in trip. Could be seriously well handicapped.

Dog Fox
3-yo gelding / Ed Dunlop / Cityscape – Dragonera

Showed nothing in three runs over trips that were clearly on the sharp side. Will improve for Handicaps and going up in trip. Majority of dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs.

There is also excellent All-Weather form in the pedigree. An opening mark of 63 looks stiff judged on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.

Elterwater
3-yo filly / D & C Kubler / Camelot – Acquainted

Showed signs of improvement on Handicap debut when last seen in October when also quite well backed. Travelled nicely but didn’t have pace to match in the closing stages over 7 furlongs.

Is a full-sister to a smart Aussie performer over 1m to 10f who improved nicely in her days as a 3yo. She looked quite big last year and is possibly one to be most interested in Spring.

Should improve as she moved up to a mile in Handicap company; 10 furlongs shouldn’t be an issue either. New seasons OR of 59 looks ready to be exploited.

Eyetrap
3-yo colt / Jane Chapple-Hyam / Ulysses – Miss Dashwood

Excellent run in third place on final run in 2022 behind very smart winner. Opening mark could be lenient judged on this final run if he moves up in trip.

Vast majority of dam’s offspring improved with age and trip, and stayed 10 furlongs plus.

Folk Star
3-yo filly / David Simcock / Le Havre – Full Opera

Two lovely runs of educational matter in October 2022. Looked much better than bare results. Never asked a question, finished nicely, especially at Yarmouth. Will need one more run to qualify for a mark.

May foal. Plenty of scope to improve, especially as she goes up in trip. A stiff mile could be ideal before moving up further. Beautifully bred, with plenty of stamina on dam side; the mare improved with time.

Le Have offspring improves with age. His 3yo’s have a 21% strike rate overall (A/E 1.2) in Handicaps. Especially potent over 1 mile to 10 furlongs from July on. Ideally stiff or galloping tracks not on a straight track.

Gold Aura
3-yo filly / Richard Hughes / Golden Horn – Lady Haidi

Showed promise in three starts as a juvenile over 7 furlongs. Looks bound to improve for a step up in trip as there is tons of stamina on sire and dam side. Could possibly enjoy the All-Weather, too.

Opening mark of 72 looks more than fair, given her solid juvenile form. Up in trip she could turn out to be well handicapped.

Golden Horn offspring tend to improve dramatically as they step up in trip. His record with fillies is strong.

Galilaeus
3-yo gelding / Ralph Beckett / Galileo – Madame Chiang

Unremarkable three runs as a juvenile on the surface of the form. Finished at the back of the field in the Eyetrap race. Badly outpaced but finished seriously well in the final furlong.

Cost 200k as a yearling and had a Derby entry. Gelded in the meantime. Clearly will need to go up in trip to show his best form. Opening mark could be quite lenient as he’s very well bred.

Lady Rascal
3-yo filly / George Boughey / Nathanial – Theladyinquestion

Solid debut and sole run as a juvenile over inadequate trip. Most likely won’t show true colours before she steps up significantly in trip. Full-sister to smart stayer Nate The Great.

Fetched £270k as a yearling back in 2021. Could be seriously underestimated by the handicapper once she had three qualifying runs.

Made seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton in 9.5f maiden. Encouraging effort without ever threatening.

Mudskipper
3-yo colt / David Menuisier / Le Havre – Arendelle

Ran incredibly well in two of three runs as a juvenile, both placed performances can be marked up and look possibly strong form, judged through the winners.

Will be interesting as he goes up in trip. By Le Havre out of a Camelot mare, 10 furlongs will suit really well. Opening mark not a giveaway but with improvement to come as a 3-year-old could have something in hand.

Tribal Master
3-yo gelding / Ralph Beckett / Mastercraftsman – Snoqualmie Star

Gelded before debut run, showed nothing in two starts last year, but 7f way too short. Is a full-brother to smart stayer Tribal Craft (and modest staying handicapper).

Should get a low enough opening mark post qualifying run that could be exploited once he moves up significantly in trip.

Monday Selections: 3rd April 2023

It wasn’t the start I hoped for the new flat season: King’s Lynn badly squeezed early on, his race was basically done there and then. Didn’t get the clearest of runs until the race was over either… one to mark up and keep in the tracker.

Anyway, the flat kicks into gear properly this week. It’s going to be a few busy weeks and months ahead… But before that I’ve done the usual house keeping, and updated the P&L sheet for March here, including SPs now.

Always a bit easier to do this work if the month turned out to be a green one… can do with a few more of them, of course.

I’m heading to the sand for Monday’s selection, though. A familiar name is back there over her ideal course and distance….

……..

5.15 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Sir Rodneyredblood remains a strong chance even under a penalty, having shown tremendous form lately. I backed him myself when he won over the minimum trip at Chelmsford last month.

Nonetheless, he’s now rated very much in range of what requires best effort for him to overcome these days, in a hot race, with a wider than ideal draw and pace pressure likely to be applied.

Bobby On The beat and Porfin have fair shouts on their winter form, but Come On Girl is the one I’m most interested in, given it was back in January that she caught the eye in no uncertain terms.

That day she wasn’t advantaged by the way the race developed, yet she finished much the fastest in the home straight despite turning wider than ideal.

She followed up with another massive run, then over 7 furlongs, when only caught in the final half furlong, after doing too much too soon.

Subsequently out of her depth in class 4 when last seen, she’s now back in her ideal grade, class 6; 0-65, over 6 furlongs.

Pace looks guaranteed, her #4 draw gives Oisin Murphy in the saddle plenty of options; his booking seems a clear indicator that connections expect her to run well.

She was in fine form all winter, ran to 59 and 60 speed ratings during this All-Weather season and looks ripe for a 5th course and distance victory.

10pts win – Come On Girl @ 5/1

Saturday Selections: 1st April 2023

After a small break on a sunny island in the Atlantic Ocean I’m (nearly) back for the start of the flat season!

March was finally a green month again, having produced a 110pts profit; 4 winners and seven placed selections…. something positive at the end of a tough winter on the sand.

Thankfully, the grind of the All-Weather is over (well, probably not really, for another couple of weeks) and the grind of the flat beings here once again.

………

3.00 Doncaster: Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes, 6f

Intriguing contest. A handful could have a proper go in this listed contest, but the ground should be key to narrow down the real contenders.

Current favourite Asjad definitely stays the trip and beyond in deep ground as shown in his last three fine runs in autumn 2022, including over this course and distance. He goes well fresh, but has failed to convince on speed ratings in 12 career runs so far.

El Caballo remains a sprinter with plenty of upside. If he’s ready from a long lay-off he should be the one to beat. A Grade 2 winner last May at Haydock, he wasn’t seen since Royal Ascot.

That’s a question mark, as well as the unknown whether he can show the same level of ability to show on deep ground.

Fast Response should enjoy the soft ground as he proved winning a Listed contest over this course and distance when last seen in November. Again he’s one who looks up against it on speed ratings – if the main principles fire.

Commanche Falls is pretty ground independent. He’s got a fine record fresh, and looks a key player if in the same form as last season; however, he’s yet to win outside Handicap company and his very best came on no less than good to soft.

Ehraz remains progressive and has been gelded during is off-season. He’d be seriously interesting on better ground. In soft conditions he may struggle, though, today.

Having said that, King’s Lynn is the one I’m siding with at given prices. He looks clearly overpriced, if fit on his seasonal reappearance.

The fact he ran quite well coming off a break in the past is promising. He’s the finished article by now, so if he can run to last seasons form, he should have a major say in the outcome of this race.

This is easier than his final assignment in 2022, when well beaten in the Champions Sprint. He competed predominantly in hot water last year, but was highly competitive in lesser grades, including when winning the Grade 2 Temple Stakes.

He runs consistently to a good level on speed ratings; his career-best effort over this Doncaster course and distance that came in the Listed Wentworth Stakes in November 2021 makes him a prime contender today, in theory.

Possibly the minimum trip is his optimum, but he obviously stays 6 furlongs, no bother, and loves soft ground. With that in mind he seems seriously overpriced at current exchange prices (8s readily available) although the scenario of a weak pace would count against him, truth told.

10pts win – King’s Lynn @ 8/1

Friday Selections: 17th March 2023

Two winners from three selections on Thursday – and the third beaten by a head! It could have been the sweetest of hat-tricks.

No complaints. Saisons D’Or went off a lot shorter than the price I got…. the money was on and he clearly is in peak form the way he fought back for a seriously game victory at Southwell.

Get Stuck In got the pretty easy run from the front, as hoped, and had too much in hand. It’s also fair to say Leabaland had a few pounds in hand but Seamie Heffernan went pretty hard early on, and that perhaps was the reason getting beaten in the dying strides.

Who am I to complain, though? Am not. Any day with two winners is a brilliant day in my book. It gets March firmly back into the green, as it has been 5 winners to date for the month, and we’re only halfway through it.

By my own calculation, one more solid priced winner will solidify a healthy profit. I wouldn’t mind it this one comes today, in the big race…

………

3.30 Cheltenham: Grade 1 Gold Cup, 3m2½f

The blue ribband of jump racing has been kind to me, betting wise. This year, though, shapes like a hot, and tricky edition.

It stems from the fact that half the field appear on more or less the same good level of form. While a few select have clear standout form, but serious questions to answer.

The one on many lips, is Galopin Des Champs. The favourite, and a short price for a horse with stamina to prove.

No doubt, an incredibly talented individual; unbeaten in seven of his last eight starts; and that one blip, was desperately unlucky in the Turners when he seemed to have the race won, if not for falling at the last.

This season he’s a much better settled horse, jumps really well and won the John Durkan as well as the Irish Gold Cup by a combined 21 lengths!

But at the current price I have to take him. There are valid concerns over his stamina, especially on deep ground. The Irish Gold Cup proved little. He sprinted away from Stattler in a test of speed more than anything. He has won on proper soft ground but is it his preferred going? I doubt it.

Stable mate Stattler is an intriguing contender. Available at 20/1+ on the exchanges; he’s a serious contender to run late into the placings, I believe. He’s not shown quite enough on ratings, to suggest he’s truly a Gold Cup winner. But the deep ground will help to make it stamina test, which could suit.

Minella Indo ran a huge race in second place last year. He hit the front too soon, and had nothing more to give once A Plus Tard sprinted past him. But it was a strong performance, good enough in other years to win a Gold Cup, I believe.

He looked good on his return at Tramore in early January. We haven’t seen him since, though. The vibes from the yard are bullish, but I see it as a negative that he didn’t go Leopardstown as he did the last two years when he won- and finished runner-up in the Gold Cup.

Grand National hero Noble Yeats is rightly in the mix. The emphasis on stamina will be to his advantage. I’m not sure whether he’s truly good enough to win a Gold Cup, though.

Protektorat and Royal Pagaille have shouts to run into the placings on their best form. Ahoy Senor with a clear round of jumping could be dangerous. But there is no question the gap to the the top three in the betting market is real.

I mentioned Galopin Des Champs before and the fact I’m happy to take him on. I’d be certain he wouldn’t be A Plus Tard, if the impressive 2022 Gold Cup winner would return to the same level as twelve month ago.

Clearly his prospects have improved since DeBromehead yard looks in good health this week. You would hope whatever problems materialised at Haydock about half a year ago now, and the issues at Leopardstown, are well and truly fixed.

It’s shame we haven’t seen him since. No matter what, this can’t have been an ideal preparation for the biggest race of the year. He’s a year older, too; having been at the Festival numerous times before, how much more is left in the tank?

I can take the leap of faith required to back A Plus Tard; even though I do so last year and those memories are still vivid.

But there is no question in mind the only horse I can back at this stage is Bravemansgame. If I would have come to this conclusion earlier than this week I could have gotten bigger prices. But I still think he’s overpriced.

Ever since that impressive King George victory was I contemplating for and against Bravemansgame’s prospects to stay up the Hill to win a Gold Cup.

The positives outweigh the negatives ultimately, though.

Bravemansgame won that day at Kempton in the most impressive style. He powered home, staying on strongly, found more and more for pressure, when everyone else fell away.

He gave ground away all the time – perhaps by design. Jumped fluently, travelled powerfully for a long time, and was brave and gutsy; a bit flat footed around the final bend, he kept going, came back on the bridle and outbattled his rivals.

Yes, perhaps, one could argue, the winning margin was flattered by L’Homme Presse who unseated his rider at the last. But he had the race won by then, I firmly believe, in any case.

That performance is by far the strongest this season, on all sorts of ratings. Whether Bravemansgame can run to the same level of form over this extreme test of stamina on deep ground is the key question.

His best form comes on flatter, galloping tracks. His sole visit to Cheltenham ended in heavy defeat. Paul Nicholls is adamant that Bravemansgame is a different, stronger, more mature horse these days, though.

Therefore, he deserves his chance to go for a Gold Cup. He seems to posesses the right tools to cope with the demands of the race. But there is only one way to find out whether he truly has got it to win the Gold Cup. At given prices my money is riding on him.

10pts win – Bravemansgame @ 13/2

Horse Racing Around The Globe