14 losers on the bounce. Then came Soul Sister. She romped home in the Musidora on Wednesday and made a mockery of the 21/1 odds on offer.
A winner I needed to get back into green for May, which looked rather dismal up until the moment Frankie Dettori pressed the button on the filly as she accelerated and dipped bellow 11 seconds to storm home.
Chinthurst ran a solid race at Bath to finish 4th. Ultimately he wasn’t good enough. Will need to review the race again before making a decision whether he’s one worth persisting with.
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3.35 York. Group 2 Dante Stakes, 1m 2½f
This looks a hot edition of the Dante. I really like Epictetus and not just because he’s written one of my favourite books… the philosopher, not the horse, that is.
Epictetus is the only colt in the field with a 100+ speed rating to his name. Not sure he wants to much further than 10 furlongs. This additional half furlong may be too far, ultimately.
The experience and stamina of Flying Colours looks interesting, as long as he trained on, as he also ran to a 98 speed rating last year. Lightly-raced Passenger, Canberra Legend and recent Ballysax winner White Birch offer plenty of upside.
The one I’m incredibly keen to see for a while now is also finally making his belated seasonal reappearance: Continuous.
He’s one of my 3-year-olds to follow and certainly one of the more intriguing ones. And how could it be any different with his pedigree.
A son of Japanese sire Heart’s Cry – who was a winner of the Sheema Classic in 2006 – out of Fluff, which was down to pure chance because the mare was supposed to be covered by Deep Impact, who sadly passed away right before she arrived in Japan.
Continues is the only son of Heart’s Cry actively racing in the UK and Ireland (possibly Europe) right now. His sire is well known for stamina in Japan, having sired Japan Cup winners and other multiple international top-class horses over middle-distance top-class .
He won well at the Curragh over 7 furlongs when he made all on his racecourse debut as he kicked on over 2 furlongs out to achieve an 80 speed rating as well, which confirmed he’s possibly a smart one.
Continuous went on to win a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud over a mile. A gutsy performance in a slowly run race that didn’t suit him. I loved the attitude he showed in those first two career runs.
There no doubt in my mind he’ll improve moving up in trip and with age. Therefore 10.5f won’t be an issue. Neither should be track. He strikes me as a relentless galloper, who should enjoy York.
On the other hand the ground is a question mark. His juvenile form came on deep ground and he seems to hit the ground hard enough. It’s also a concern that he makes a belated seasonal reappearance. He was supposed to start much earlier, but Aiden O’Brien is on the record that he needed time.
How fit is Continuous here? I reckon they wouldn’t bother travelling over, as well as him as the sole entry for the Dante, if he wouldn’t be ready to go.
He’s doesn’t have an entry for the Derby, though. It’s Ascot and the Irish Derby as well as the Eclipse. That worries me less. Because he’ll have to run well enough to take up those entries.
Ryan Moore didn’t sound too excited about this lad for the Dante when asked. So there are enough negatives to leave him alone. On the other hand, the price is silly, as there’s enough to believe he can outrun these odds easily given his pedigree, the talent he showed as a juvenile.
10pts win – Continuous @ 11/1
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6.55 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
This could be the opportunity connections have been waiting for with Lord Rapscallion. It looks a perfect race for a number of reasons.
For one, his latest effort in a hot class 2 Handicap over this course and distance doesn’t read too well on the surface; however, one can easily argue he ran well, and perhaps even outperformed market expectations given he was only 4¼ lengths beaten as a 22/1 shot.
He travelled well for a long time and didn’t fade too badly in the final furlong, either. This is clearly a horse in good form. He was, though, outclassed.
This here is much, much easier. From 0-105 down to 0-80 level. Prior to this he showed a clear uptick in form at Chelmsford last month as well. it was a good run there, one that was an improvement on anything he showed since winning back to back in December.
He won off 76 and 80 then, and it’s looks significant that he dropped town to his last winning mark now again. He’s probably a little bit better on turf, though. He ran twice to speed rating 84+ last year on turf over 7 furlongs, which means he’s got a bit in hand, possibly.
Lord Rapscallion may prefer the July course over the Rowley Mile, but as mentioned earlier, he looked solid over this CD recently, and with the drying ground expected, shouldn’t have an issue to act here.
The race may develop in an ideal way for him as well. There is plenty of pace on. He is at his best when he can closely follow a good pace. That’s scenario is given here and he sees out the trip strongly, even can win over a mile.
10pts win – Lord Rapscallion @ 9/1
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