Preview: Epsom Derby

Big surprise in the Oaks today – 50/1 shocker Qualify got up to deny Legatissimo the Guinas & Oaks double. That says, if you would have been brave enough, you could have got easily 100/1 for the winner this morning…. I didn’t, that is for sure, completely dismissed this filly. I got it wrong. But it helps to know that most got it wrong.

My filly Together Forever had not too many excuses. Up with the pace, which wasn’t a strong one, she got bumped 2f out, but I felt she was already out of it at that point anyway. Lady Of Dubai finished a fine third. I’m somewhat happy she didn’t win. I was very fond of her beforehand was slapping my face this morning when I saw the money pouring in for her, knowing I left 14/1 on the table the night before

Anyway, that’s the Oaks. History now. Let’s concentrate on what’s in front of us: The Derby!

4.30 Epsom: English Derby, Group 1, 1m 4f 10y

Golden Horn: Favourite, impressive winner of the Dante Stakes. as the key trial. I marked him as one to follow in my Horses To Follow article. Hard to oppose on form but question mark is the trip. I have him down as a 10f horse, though he might be able to stretch out to the Derby distance. Whether he stays the trip is not really the question, though, it’s more whether he’s able to stay it in a way that enables him to beat horses who are certain to get it.

Jack Hobbs: Runaway winner of a Sandown Handicap. Proved his class in Dante with good runner-up effort. Clearly not yet the finished article and fair chance to stay the trip. That says his dam hasn’t produced a winner over 12f yet. Likely to improve again but has to do so if he wants to go close.

Elm Park: Racingpost Trophy winner. Didn’t do anything wrong when third in Dante on seasonal reappearance. He’ll come on for that and I expect him to finish much closer to Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs this time. He clearly stays, will get the trip, but has to prove he can be top class on better ground. However if there is anything soft in the ground come 4.30 Saturday afternoon he must have a prime chance.

Giovanni Canaletto: Another one from my Horses To Follow list. Lightly raced, this lack of experience may count against him. But he looked smart when winning a minor race as a juvenile and his comeback run a fortnight ago was promising the way he finished from a poor position. He’s a full-brother to 2013 Derby winner Ruler Of The World and should improve for the trip. Like his big brother, he’s fitted with cheep-pieces for the Derby.

Epicuris: Group 1 winner in heavy conditions as a juvenile. Form doesn’t really work out, and not too exciting on seasonal reappearance when only 2nd in Group 3. Known for his problems in the preliminaries of a race and unclear if he can be fully effective on better ground.

Hans Holbein: Lightly raced Chester Vase winner. Probably needs soft ground and more of a Leger type. Big question mark whether he’s quick enough to win the Derby.

Kilimanjaro: Witnessed with my own eyes when this lad got the mark in a Dundalk maiden back in April. Won the Derby Trial at Lingfield since then. Fair type but I find it hard to see him good enough to win a Derby.

 Moheet: Looked exciting as a juvenile but hasn’t fulfilled promise in couple of starts this year. He may improve with time and experience but the Derby distance looks very ambitious.

Storm The Stars: One of the more experienced individuals, yet he looked still a big baby in his races. Took him a while to get off the mark but clearly progressing and the trip is in his blood. Might be up with the pace and wouldn’t mind making all if needed. Very dangerous if allowed an easy lead.

Success Days: Progressive and impressive in Ireland this year. Likely needs it soft to be seen to best effect and very dubious stayer on pedigree.

Rogue Runner: German raider who won two minor races in his native country. May improve for the step up to Derby trip but very hard to see him good enough to land a blow.

Carbon Dating: Still a maiden, big chance to finish last.

Verdict: Ground seems key. If there are any soft patches in the ground I believe Elm Park must go really close. But with the ground probably drying out over night, I feel there are others races later the year which are likely to suit better. Golden Horn is top class and will go close if he truly gets the trip. But given his very short price is easily opposable.

I admit I’m not getting warm with Jack Hobbs and don’t see why he is shorter than a couple of others. He’s a good horse and may even develop into top class, but for now I have Elm Park higher in the packing order.

However it’s clearly Giovanni Canaletto who gets the nod from me. I have a 16/1 ante-post bet on him, but he’s still a 9/1 chance, which strikes me as too big – therefore I nominate him as my selection for the Derby. He’s clearly classy, has the right credentials on pedigree and first time headgear should help to settle and focus when it matters.

Giovanni Canaletto @ 9/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Oracolo Primed To Win!

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5.40 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

The final race on Doncaster’s card is all but exciting. But “tracker horse” Oracolo has an entry and I’m inclined to give him a second chance. I was already keen on the son of Cape Cross when he made his seasonal debut at Newmarket last month, but that seemed more like a public gallop for the four year old, in order to blow the cobwebs away.

Oracolo appeals as the type likely to improve with age and experience, so the Newmarket outing may have done him the world of good. Still a lightly raced gelding, last year he needed three attempts to get off the mark, finished third in a good Redcar maiden and then went on to win at Wolverhampton in what was quite a decent race.

It’ll be only his second start in Handicap company here at Doncaster, over a trip and fast ground likely to suit perfectly on pedigree. He also has also been gelded over the winter, which sometimes needs a run or two to really make an impact.

In a nutshell: I think in this underwhelming field Oracolo has a prime chance to go really close off a pretty fair mark.

Oracolo @ 8/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Hero’s return in Surrey Stakes

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5.15 Epsom: Surrey Stakes (Listed), 7f

This looks a wide open contest and I find it hard to get warm with the favourite Aces. Clearly a talented individual and open to improvement, but that could easily be said about half of the field.

I’ve decided to go with one my ‘tracker horses’: Hail The Hero. This Former aiden O’Brien inmate cost 500k as a yearling and is extremely well bred. He didn’t quite fulfil the promise of his pedigree yet and remained a maiden in three starts as a juvenile – though he showed talent when close runner-up behind Vert De Grece, who subsequently finished less than a lengths beaten by Gleneagles and ended the season with a Group 1 success in France.

Hail The Hero has changed yards over the winter, is now with David O’Meara. He was excellent on his debut for new connections back in March when he landed a Doncster maiden in impressive fashion. He meat in-running trouble that day but was still able to produce a blistering turn of foot when finally in the clear and won easily.

Upped in class subsequently, he couldn’t land a blow in either the Craven Stakes nor the Guineas. But now dropped in Listed class, he may have a more realistic target. The drop back to 7f should suit as well, so will the ground.

Hail The Hero @ 14/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

Keep faith in Carlo

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2.35 Epsom: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

A Handicap competitive in its nature, though nothing obvious sticks out. Many have to deal with high marks and are tasked with a career best. Fire Fighter could be one who is able to achieve this. He won well at Redcar with a bit in hand when last seen, and under a penalty he is likely to be a big runner.

But it might worth to give What About Carlo another chance. He was progressive last season, won here at Epsom a competitive 10f Handicap and is now only 1lb above this last winning mark.

He’s slipping down to a rating of 95 due to some poor recent efforts. This blip in form comes a bit as a surprise as he finished the Lincoln at Doncaster in eye-catching fashion, over a trip too sharp. He was outpaced but stuck gamely to the task and run out a creditable 4th place.

If What About Carlo can bounce back to form he could take all the beating today I feel given that he is one of only very few in this field who are potentially well handicapped. Conditions should suit down to the grounds.

What About Carlo @ 11/1 Stan James – 5pts Win

Leopardstown Preview: Saval Beg Stakes

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7.05 Leopardstown: Saval Beg Stakes (Listed)

It’s raining cats and dogs here in Dublin this morning which will ensure that the quick ground is going to diminish until the race tonight at Leopardstown. That could destroy the chances for some in this field. Most notably Panama Hat, who is a dubious stayer in my book and has shown his best form on quick ground.

Key form for this race is the Group 3 Vintage Crop Stakes from last month. Exciting stayer Forgotten Rules won the race, with promising Answered in second. More interesting is what happened behind. Race fit Sir Ector finished third, which makes him one of the likelier types today. Not far behind in fourth and fifth that day were Panama Head and Kingfisher. The former one didn’t seem to stay the trip, though.

Kingfisher in contrast seems to get the trip well. He wasn’t knocked over on his seasonal reappearance but made good progress late to pick up Panama Head eventually. He appears to have strengthen up over the winter and a campaign in all the big staying races has been mapped out for him.

He was once a highly promising colt thanks to a runner-up effort in the Irish Derby behind Australia. Deployed as pace maker in most starts last year, he gets now the chance to race for himself. On pedigree he has good credentials to develop into a fine stayer.

On balance, Kingfisher is the best horse in this race. He drops in class should improve from his recent run. If fully wound up one would expect him to beat the rivals he ran close to at Navan. A hood is fitted for the first time too may help him too. In the context of the race I believe he’s a big price.

Kingfisher @ 5/2 Coral – 10pts Win

The Big Race: Epsom Oaks

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The general perception is that the Oaks are a better race than the Derby this year. And yes, there’s certainly some merit to this. The Oaks field looks absolute delicious -and that’s not only because the brilliant 1000 Guineas winner Legatissimo standing her ground over the much longer Oaks trip. No, it’s the strengths in depth that really intrigues me.

Of course the Wachman filly couldn’t have been more impressive at Newmarket. The drop in trip to 1m didn’t seem to suit beforehand, but it worked absolutely in her favour given the way the race panned out. Racing off the frenetic pace, once she started her big move, she picked them all up one by one, filly after filly, until she was left alone in front.

No doubt, she is a very strong favourite to land the Guineas & Oaks double. The longer trip is rather certain to suit than not, the ground won’t be an issue and she looks a well balanced filly who’s likely to handle Epsom’s undulations.

If you want to find question marks than it has to be the draw. Legatissimo has to start from stall 1 – which would be in any other sport the pole position – but not at Epsom where the record in the Oaks for fillies drawn in one is disastrous. Lucky she is, though, as she has Ryan Moore in the saddle….. there’s some people thinking he’s the best jockey in the world. He may be able to get her out of this dilemma.

Honestly, after making this case for her, I find it hard to oppose her. But I have to. At 3/1 or even shorter I can hardly see any value in the price. It’s a competitive field with strong opposition. Legatissimo is not invincible.

Main danger could be Stoute’s Crystal Zvezda. Lightly raced, she seems to have tons of potential. Her eye-catching success in a Newbury listed race on her seasonal reappearance promises allot. However Epsom is a completely different track compared to what she has seen at flat Newbury. Will this inexperienced filly handle the tough assignment which the Oaks will undoubtedly provide? Maybe. I could be tempted at 4/1, but also believe better value can be found in this field.

Many have been impressed by Jack Naylor’s performance in the Irish 1000 Guineas. So have I. She stayed on from an unfavourable position, trailing the field for most parts of the race, and finished an encouraging fourth in the end. Jack Naylor has a good chance to stay the Oaks trip, albeit it’s a dramatic step up from a mile to 1m 4f. And might the bounce factor kick in? Only 12 days after having a tough race in the Guineas she’s here at Epsom.

Aiden O’Brien is represented with three fillies. Qualify is likely to be deployed as a pacer maker – that’s my best guess. Diamondsandrubies was a very good winner of the Cheshire Oaks. Soft ground may be key to her, so the drying ground seems against her. She also needs to take another massive step forward to win.

Probably the best of the O’Brien trio is Together Forever. A Group 1 winner as a juvenile, after what her trainer said she might be more a Guineas type than one for the Oaks as she shows more speed than expected. Well, here she is in the Oaks, on the back of a very encouraging runner-up effort in the Musidora Stakes over 1m 2f.

The winner had the run of the race from the front that day and Together Forever – albeit making eye-catching progress from four to two furlongs out – appeared to be flat footed once the pace setting filly kicked on. But she kept fighting and stayed on strongly. She almost caught the eventual winner on the line.

On pedigree Together Forever looks certain to stay the Oaks trip, and not only that, she may easily improve for it. I would expect her to come on from her comeback run too. If she handles Epsom, she must rate a very big runner.

Her Musidora form is tied to Star Of Seville, who won the race. A smart filly in her own right, but 10f looks to be her optimum, if not even the limit of her stamina.

That should not be the case for Cummani’s Lady Of Dubai. She impressed at Goodwood in a Listed event and has a very fair chance to get the Oaks trip. Frankie Dettori’s mount Jazzi Top was a good Listed winner last month as well, though stamina is a bit more of a question mark for her.

It is very hard to see either Al Naamah or Bellajeu good enough to land a blow in the Oaks.

Verdict: Legatissimo is likely to be found on any short-list, for obvious reasons – but as mentioned before, she is not a price I’m particularly fond of. Same applies to Crystal Zvezda. I like her and look forward to see her running, but she not a price for me.

Lady Of Dubai is a filly I believe can run a big race and no doubt she is an interesting price. But most intriguing individual is Together Forever. Potentially she has so many things in her favour here. It’s likely that she can improve for her seasonal debut as well as the step up in trip. She’s already a Group 1 winner, so clearly has the class, and has a good draw, which isn’t quite without importance.

Together Forever @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Racing at Hoppegarten

Monday Night, the first of June – It’s windy, chilly and lashing down – Summer seems far away. But if you’re a racing fan this doesn’t matter to you. You’re going racing because you love the sport and if the opportunity arises to pay a visit to a new track you do it.

I am a racing fan and off I went to Berlin-Hoppegarten earlier this week, braving nature. It was supposed to be the highlight of my time in Germany’s massive capital, where parts of my family live. Racing’s always on my mind, though, so to miss the intended visit of Berlin’s only racecourse for thoroughbreds (there are also two tracks for harness racing) was out of question. Regardless of how bad the  weather might be.

Hoppegarten racecourse is conveniently situated in the suburbs of Berlin, easily accessible with public transport. Leaving the hustle and bustle of the booming city behind, it can be a welcome change of scenery: Hoppegarten is a green oasis, full of charm and character, with a beautiful old wooden grand stand.

Hoppegarten Grandstand

Once you arrive in Hoppegarten you’re going to be greeted by a relaxed atmosphere, while a delicious smell is waving through the air – a mix of freshly cut turf and charcoal-grilled Bratwurst!

No, it wasn’t exactly top class racing on offer that night – eight races, some more or less decent handicaps… no signs of glamour at all. But hey, this is Hoppegarten, not Royal Ascot!

Nonetheless a loyal crowd gathered around the parade ring for the first race – only a class 4 Handicap – to watch in awe the runners preparing. In desperate conditions the eventual winner Niron came flying down the stretch to win in style under a well timed ride from René Piechulek. After their heroics, horse and jockey paraded in front of the stands bathing in the rain but more importantly a warm applause from the locals.

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And so it went on, a wet night, eight races, most of them producing some exciting finishes. There was loads of cheering and clapping, horses parading, owners, trainers and jockey joyful as if they’d won the Derby! It was a unique, honest and friendly atmosphere. As a racing fan I loved every minute of it. A good performance is a good performance, and so is a good ride, regardless of the class of the race.

Grassroots-sport…. racing in its purest form – it can be as beautiful and exciting as the colourful Derby Meeting at Epsom Racecourse – which is sure to excite us this weekend!

What you certainly wouldn’t experience at Epsom, though: a race held in almost complete darkness. So it happened in the final race on the night. A false start didn’t help the matter, nor the emerging fog. So it was more listening to the enthusiastic track commentator than seeing it, but the four year old filly Ishasha scooted clear to win the finale – and earned me a few quid – my only winner on the night!

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Yes, Berlin-Hoppegarten left a lasting impression on me. I really loved it, despite the rain – and in all seriousness, it was allot of rain! Though the sun looked through the dark clouds towards the end, bathing the course in some wonderful golden light for at least a couple of minutes…. it was very special. So I can’t praise Hoppegarten highly enough. A real gem. If you’re ever in Berlin, don’t miss it!

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Complete Hoppegarten Photo Gallery

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All Photos Credit: Florian Christoph

Kimbay’s A Big Price In Tipperary Sprint!

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6.00 Tipperary: Handicap (3yo), 5f

This is a competitive sprint Handicap where cases can be made aplenty. Top weight My Good Brother may struggle of a mark off 96 on ground which is much softer than ideal. 93 rated Zalty could well have a big say, though, if he is race fit and can handle the drop to the minimum trip. His close runner-up effort in a tough Premier Handicap over 6f at the Curragh when last seen almost seven month ago gives him a prime chance.

Ger Lyons’ Joe Eile took advantage off a slipping mark last month when landing a sprint Handicap at Navan. Seven pounds up for this success makes life tougher now. In Salutem was an eye-catching second that day and followed up with another strong performance at the Curragh when not having the run of the race. He probably need things to fall right for him to win off his current mark but is an obvious contender nonetheless.

Prince Connoisseur was progressive last season and may have still more to offer. Improvement has to come if he wants to compete in this race. Back from a seasonal break, fitness is a question mark. Lady Mega only got a run late at Navan last month and has form in her book suggesting she has a prime chance today with additional five pound claim from her jockey. Probably not quite ideal is the softish ground, though.

I’m most interested in Kimbay – again. I was already intrigued by her when she kicked off her new campaign last month. Then in a competitive 6f Handicap, she was up with the pace, travelled strongly and just got tired in the closing stages. She is expected to come on for the run and the drop to 5f should definitely suit – she is still unbeaten over this trip.

Still not too many miles on the clock for a five year old, Kimbay can race off a featherweight here once again and judged on her steady progress last year, she may be well handicapped, as she was dropped a pound since her last run. She won four races and been only beaten by a head in the other two starts in 2014 – so there is every chance for more to come. A career best is required today, though, as she is up by 6lb for last success at Dundalk in December when she won a very competitive 5f sprint – this form worked out very well.

Kimbay @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Quite Smart’s dangerous off featherweight

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7.50 Chelmsford: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Fair little Handicap with Richard Hannon’s Thahab as the clear favourite. There are good reasons why this lightly raced Dubawi colt is as short as he is. Thahab is the only one with course form in this field – He won a maiden here earlier this year in taking style, albeit against rather poor opposition. He wasn’t disgraced in two subsequent hot sprint Handicaps, but this here is easier today and the step up to 6f will certainly suit.

The likeliest danger is going to be the filly Quite Smart. She has the advantage of bottom weight and is going to make her Handicap debut. She won a 7f Redcar maiden well enough from the front a fortnight ago, despite hanging badly in the closing stages. The drop to 6f must not be an inconvenience today as it should be a fast and furious race with emphasis on stamina in the closing stages.

Mambo Paradise was a fair Wolverhampton maiden winner in April. One could make excuses for her performance at York three weeks ago when she meat in-running trouble on multiple occasions. She deserves another chance but has still to prove that she is up to her current mark. She might be a better prospect than Elis Eliz long term, who was a close runner-up at Wolverhampton behind her but was unable to be competitive off a revised mark subsequently.

Top weight Teruntum Star won a good Class 2 Handicap as a juvenile, though failed to fire on his seasonal reappearance. He may improve for the run but has to overcome a big mark. Mimy Ridge has a second place over CD to his name but looks quite exposed. He’s likely to struggle here, while Frostman was a winner of a poor Bath maiden recently and has to improve a good bit.

Verdict: Favourite Thahab has found a good opportunity to score, but isn’t a price to invest in. A better choice could be the scopey filly Quite Smart. She is a fine looking individual and got off the mark a fortnight ago. With more experience she is supposed to improve. Going into this race with light weight, with an additional 3lb claim by talented Cam Hardie, she should be very dangerous as long as she takes to the surface, which is the key question mark.

Quite Smart @ 11/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Preview: Sandown – Heron Stakes

Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

It’s massively exciting to see see Consort finally making his long awaited debut as a three year old. He missed the Guineas, though, and that for a reason. It’ll be interesting to see if he is fully wound up tomorrow as bigger targets may be on the agenda. If this is only a prep race, then others must have a chance to land the spoils.

There are Additional question marks whether Consort has trained on and is able to fulfil the promise. It’s important to keep in mind that so far he is only a maiden winner, albeit an impressive one.

Not quite the same – but to an extend at least – the same applies to Johnny Barnes as well, who makes his belated seasonal reappearance. He was a fine runner-up in a soft ground French Group 1 towards the end of last year. Race fitness and quick ground are obvious question marks.

The Makfi colt Ijmaaly was as impressive a debut winner as you will ever find. Questionable what he beat, but the way he did it was simply breathtaking. Eased down half a furlong out and he still won it by 12 lengths. This here represents a dramatic step up in trip and he is unproven on quick ground. But he’s clearly an exciting prospect.

Much more experienced is stable mate Emirates Skycargo. He has gradually improved and argubly his strongest performance to date came on the 2000 Guineas card at Newmarket in a good Class 2 Handicap when he was extremely unlucky to finish only third in a photo finish. He’d have won with a clear run despite giving loads of weight away to smart rivals.

Proven over trip and ground, he set the standard in this race in my mind. He looks capable of stepping up to Listed level and seems a rather big price in my eyes.

Emirates Skycargo @11/2 Coral – 5pts Win

Horse Racing Around The Globe