Tag Archives: Jack Hobbs

Selections for British Champions Day

Territories

1.55 Ascot: British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)

I’m a big fan of lightly raced Sea Calisi who seems to have the right traits to land this Group 1. She has been progressive all year, making the transition from Group 3 to the highest level seamingless. A Group 2 winner in her native France in June, followed an impressive performance in the Yorkshire Oaks where she was unlucky not finish closer than her third place, one and a half lengths beaten by Pleascach.

Sea Calisi was a long-shot in the Arc Trial Prix Vermeille last month, but ran a big race when third behind Treve – who that day, was from another planet.

There is every reason to believe that this likeable three year old filly can still improve – I certainly believe a big victory is due! Her high cruising speed will allow her to make the progress from the back of the field from 4f out where it’s usually the crucial point for those held up.

Sea Calisi @ 13/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

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2.30 Ascot; Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)

Still unclear what the situation is with Gleneagles. The ground is against him, so much is sure. Sollow in contrast is certain to run and will appreciate the underfoot conditions. On form he’s very hard to beat here. But Territories is an interesting alternative. The three year old with the weight advantage, has very strong form and should love the trip on slightly easy ground.

3.05 Ascot: Champion Stakes (Group 1)

Difficult race. I believe Jack Hobbs is not as much a clear favourite as the odds say, for the reason of his poor draw and the ground not really what he wants.

However from the older horses Fascinating Rock is a fascinating contender. He’ll love the ground and the trip, has been in excellent form this season and proved his class at this level – he should be right there when it matters.

Both Territories and Fascinating Rock have good chances to go close and be placed at least. They offer some “each-way-value” combined as a double.

Territories+Fascinating Rock @ 164/1 Paddy Power – 2.5pts E/W

Preview – Irish Derby Day

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The Irish Derby weekend has landed and it all started quite nicely yesterday – Algonquin was a fine winner @ 5/1. This week is a huge boost so far after a disastrous Royal Ascot. But that’s the good thing about racing: You can have a hard time but two winners later you’re very much back on track.

So today, Irish Derby Day! Some serious racing on offer at the Curragh. The sun is out, the ground is fast, the Derby poses an 8-runner strong field and the supporting card is sensational. Let’s try to find some winners!

4.10 Curragh: Summer Fillies Handicap, 7f

Three year old Military Angel should go close. She was unlucky the last time at Naas in Listed company and may be ahead of her mark. But she is small in size and this is not exactly a small field. Fighting for position is not her strongest asset, so I oppose her at a price that looks fair, but nothing more.

Colour Blue is a consistent filly. She should run her race. On a fair mark at the moment but others are better handicapped. Slipper Orchid may struggle of top weight, while Duchess Andorra is very progressive but has to overcome a 10lb rise in the mark for her most recent success at Gowran Park.

That day she beat Dermot Weld’s Sparkle Factor in second. This lightly raced four year old makes plenty of appeal. She should come on from her seasonal debut at she travelled really well and got just bit tired in the end, beaten by a fit and well handicapped rival. She came well clear of the rest of the pack nonetheless and is only one pound higher today.

She loves the ground and the trip, has a CD win on her CV and looked to win a Listed race at Killarney last year, when she travelled much the best but found the 1m trip a bit too far in the end. She looks progressive and well handicapped here today.

Sparkle Factor @ 13/2 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.45 Celebration Stakes (Listed), 1m

Nice little field, really competitive race. Looking very much forward to see how it pans out. I guess you know what you get with most of these runners. That says War Envoy is a poor favourite in my mind. Yes, he was probably well in at Ascot the other day, but now back in Listed class, he isn’t certain to follow up by any means.

I like progressive Tennessee Wildcat, but feel a track like Leopardstown suits him much better than the open, wide space at the Curragh. Bolger’s Flight Risk proved his 50/1 shocker in a Group 3 earlier this year was no flash in the pan. While Sovereign Debt may find this trip at this track beyond him. Though quick conditions should suit.

The one unexposed and potentially underestimated individual is Shepherd’s Purse. He was a bit unlucky in a hot Group 3 at Leopardstown nine days ago when the route on the inside was clearly not the one to glory. He had only five starts to date, won on his debut in taking style here at the Curragh last season, was subsequently far from disgraced when 4th behind Cappella Sansevero in a Group 3 but didn’t handle soft ground in his next two outings.

Quick ground today is very much what he wants. He has seemingly trained on and physically improved from two to three and travelled strongly the last time until meeting in-running trouble. He’s a very big runner today with the weight for age allowance – if he stays the trip. It’s far from given on pedigree. Although not impossible. At 15/2 he’s a price I feel is too big and I give him the benefit of the doubt.

Shepherd’s Purse @ 15/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

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Handicap (3YO plus), 1m

Plenty of interesting runners. Favourite Hasanour is expected by many to run a big race. He probably will  do so but has to overcome a big hike in the mark. Others appeal more to me. I like Ger Lyons’s Trinity Force. Reportedly he had a wind op over the winter which seemed to have helped as he looked good over 7f this year. Ground and trip may suit. Bolgers maiden winner is another interesting prospect.

But for a price I select Burn The Boats to go well. He has a strong record over this trip and needs fast ground and a fast pace to see him to best effect. He’s 2lb above his last winning mark but has shown some fair form this year. He was certainly not advantaged at Dundalk on his penultimate start when he travelled much the best but got a run too late. He wasn’t disgraced in Listed company at Navan when seen the last time either.

It’s a tough race, others might be better handicapped and he heeds things to fall right. But at 20/1 Burn The Boats is certainly a price to have an interest in. If he gets a clear run then I expect him to be bang there when it matters.

Burn The Boats @ 20/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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5.50 Curragh: Irish Derby (Group 1) 1m 4f

Despite half the field trained by Aiden O’Brien, this is one of the better line-ups for the Irish Derby in recent years. Epsom Derby runner-up Jack Hobbs comes here as the clear favourite and takes all the beating if he can bring his A game to the plate today.

Storm The Stars was third at Epsom, though a long way behind Jack Hobbs. He finished the race well enough, but you wonder if he isn’t more of a Leger type? He would need a soft lead today to have a real chance to win I feel.

Giovanni Canaletto was fourth in the Derby, he ran okay but not as good as many would have hoped. Though the big race may came a bit too soon for this inexperienced full-brother to Ruler Of The World. He remains with potential for improvement. His comeback run when runner-up to subsequent Riblesdale winner Curvy looked disappointing back in the day but turns out to be very strong form. In my eyes he’s Ballydoyle’s number one today.

However a shorter price is stable mate Highland Reel. Yes, I was eagerly awaiting his seasonal reappearance, hoping he could develop into the superstar he promised to be after exciting performances as a juvenile. He didn’t quite fulfil these hopes. A poor French Guineas run, followed by a much improved runner-up effort in the French Derby. Nonetheless I feel he is not as good a three year old as he was a juvenile and I fail to see how the 12f trip will bring out any more improvement.

Dermot Weld’s charge Radanpour is a fairly progressive individual. Though his dead heat in a listed event three weeks ago doesn’t inspire me. You’d be disappointed if he’d come out on top today. Same goes for Kilimanjaro, who’s simply not good enough.

Surprise Oaks winner Qualify is a different proposition. She is really progressive and I don’t think her Epsom success was a fluke. She is that good. She needs a fast pace and then stays all day long. Not sure if these conditions are given today, but she can’t be underestimated.

But the value lies with Giovanni Canaletto in my mind. He has a lot to find with the odds-on favourite on the Epsom Derby form, but it is far from unlikely that there is more improvement to come from him. He is a lovely looking individual, raw but inexperienced. Epsom could bring him along nicely for the Irish Derby, so at 12/1 I side with him.

Giovanni Canaletto @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts win

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7.15 Curragh: Handicap (60-100), 2m

It was utterly impressive the way Sang Tiger made up ground late at Leopardstown recently when he had clearly the run of the race against himself. He came from a near impossible position to score cosily in the end.

He’s five pounds higher today but not too exposed yet, so he may be able to overcome this new mark. Quick ground is what he likes, and despite an ultra competitive field, he has as good a chance as anybody here and is a rather big price.

Sang Tiger @ 10/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

Preview: Epsom Derby

Big surprise in the Oaks today – 50/1 shocker Qualify got up to deny Legatissimo the Guinas & Oaks double. That says, if you would have been brave enough, you could have got easily 100/1 for the winner this morning…. I didn’t, that is for sure, completely dismissed this filly. I got it wrong. But it helps to know that most got it wrong.

My filly Together Forever had not too many excuses. Up with the pace, which wasn’t a strong one, she got bumped 2f out, but I felt she was already out of it at that point anyway. Lady Of Dubai finished a fine third. I’m somewhat happy she didn’t win. I was very fond of her beforehand was slapping my face this morning when I saw the money pouring in for her, knowing I left 14/1 on the table the night before

Anyway, that’s the Oaks. History now. Let’s concentrate on what’s in front of us: The Derby!

4.30 Epsom: English Derby, Group 1, 1m 4f 10y

Golden Horn: Favourite, impressive winner of the Dante Stakes. as the key trial. I marked him as one to follow in my Horses To Follow article. Hard to oppose on form but question mark is the trip. I have him down as a 10f horse, though he might be able to stretch out to the Derby distance. Whether he stays the trip is not really the question, though, it’s more whether he’s able to stay it in a way that enables him to beat horses who are certain to get it.

Jack Hobbs: Runaway winner of a Sandown Handicap. Proved his class in Dante with good runner-up effort. Clearly not yet the finished article and fair chance to stay the trip. That says his dam hasn’t produced a winner over 12f yet. Likely to improve again but has to do so if he wants to go close.

Elm Park: Racingpost Trophy winner. Didn’t do anything wrong when third in Dante on seasonal reappearance. He’ll come on for that and I expect him to finish much closer to Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs this time. He clearly stays, will get the trip, but has to prove he can be top class on better ground. However if there is anything soft in the ground come 4.30 Saturday afternoon he must have a prime chance.

Giovanni Canaletto: Another one from my Horses To Follow list. Lightly raced, this lack of experience may count against him. But he looked smart when winning a minor race as a juvenile and his comeback run a fortnight ago was promising the way he finished from a poor position. He’s a full-brother to 2013 Derby winner Ruler Of The World and should improve for the trip. Like his big brother, he’s fitted with cheep-pieces for the Derby.

Epicuris: Group 1 winner in heavy conditions as a juvenile. Form doesn’t really work out, and not too exciting on seasonal reappearance when only 2nd in Group 3. Known for his problems in the preliminaries of a race and unclear if he can be fully effective on better ground.

Hans Holbein: Lightly raced Chester Vase winner. Probably needs soft ground and more of a Leger type. Big question mark whether he’s quick enough to win the Derby.

Kilimanjaro: Witnessed with my own eyes when this lad got the mark in a Dundalk maiden back in April. Won the Derby Trial at Lingfield since then. Fair type but I find it hard to see him good enough to win a Derby.

 Moheet: Looked exciting as a juvenile but hasn’t fulfilled promise in couple of starts this year. He may improve with time and experience but the Derby distance looks very ambitious.

Storm The Stars: One of the more experienced individuals, yet he looked still a big baby in his races. Took him a while to get off the mark but clearly progressing and the trip is in his blood. Might be up with the pace and wouldn’t mind making all if needed. Very dangerous if allowed an easy lead.

Success Days: Progressive and impressive in Ireland this year. Likely needs it soft to be seen to best effect and very dubious stayer on pedigree.

Rogue Runner: German raider who won two minor races in his native country. May improve for the step up to Derby trip but very hard to see him good enough to land a blow.

Carbon Dating: Still a maiden, big chance to finish last.

Verdict: Ground seems key. If there are any soft patches in the ground I believe Elm Park must go really close. But with the ground probably drying out over night, I feel there are others races later the year which are likely to suit better. Golden Horn is top class and will go close if he truly gets the trip. But given his very short price is easily opposable.

I admit I’m not getting warm with Jack Hobbs and don’t see why he is shorter than a couple of others. He’s a good horse and may even develop into top class, but for now I have Elm Park higher in the packing order.

However it’s clearly Giovanni Canaletto who gets the nod from me. I have a 16/1 ante-post bet on him, but he’s still a 9/1 chance, which strikes me as too big – therefore I nominate him as my selection for the Derby. He’s clearly classy, has the right credentials on pedigree and first time headgear should help to settle and focus when it matters.

Giovanni Canaletto @ 9/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win