Doesn’t look a strong race and the likely absence of any significant pace will give some suspect stayers of this distance a chance to get home stronger than usual.
One that fits into this category is Media Guest. The move to a new new yard is a bit of a question mark, but the 5-year-old looked in fine form when he caught the eye over this course and distance only last month.
He travelled quite well on the inside for a long time, still on the bridle upon entering the straight. There were moments you thought if he gets a clear run he can win. But he didn’t get out, was short of room multiple times.
The race was way too hot as well. Hence the drop into 0-65 appears significant today. The gelding has a poor win record, however would have a second W to his name if not having been demoted at Chelmsford earlier this year over this distance.
Generally, 7f stretches his stamina to absolute maximum. With the pace probably not overly hot here, he has every chance to get home, though, especially against much easier opposition off a career lowest mark.
Of course, Media Guest may be a bit keen in the early parts, if the pace is slow, and it’s probably down to solid 7lb claiming Liam Wright to make smart decisions as soon as the gates open.
Drawn in #4 he’s got plenty of options, and the most intriguing one would be if he bounces out of the gate to attack the race from the front. Media Guest is at his best if racing prominently, at the very least, so the setup looks perfect for him to simply move forward and do his own thing, if nobody else wants to do it.
He’s stone cold in the betting this morning. I guess the direction of the odds may tell us whether he’s on a going day…. saying that, this race looks like served on a plate for him to grab by the horns. So here’s hoping for a strong performance.
Newyorkstateofmind drops down to the minimum trip today, at Newcastle, off a fair mark – this looks like an ideal test with a solid pace expected, to help him settle and finish strongly.
The 6-year-old gelding is fully exposed, however, has ran only once over this course and distance, earlier this year, and finished a strong third off 3lb higher in a race that wasn’t run at a rapid clip.
His last two runs over 6 furlongs were highly encouraging, though, and he seems to hit strong form. Todays race is competitive but on speed ratings he’s the one I have come out on top, if he runs to form.
Especially after two eye-catching efforts in the last two weeks over 6 furlongs.
At Lingfield, when last seen, he couldn’t quite get to the pace early on and settled near midfield, though he also showed signs of keenness. A good pace and shorter trip should suit today, hence.
He then made strong progress from 3f out and made a gigantic effort toward the dreaded inside rail at Lingfield to even contest the lead over 1f out, before inevitably getting tired.
He was well-fancied that day, perhaps also related to the huge effort prior to it, at Wolverhampton. With that in mind, there is a danger that he can’t run to the same level a third time in this short pace of time.
But I feel the pace, the trip and the stiff finish will suit him really well, being also drawn in and around the pace, he can then track, and granted a clear run, should be able to finish strongly.
Guiteau won well last night. Brilliantly executed ride by Oisin Murphy, who must have read my preview beforehand, as it turned exactly that way – he made most of his draw and the lack of early pace, moved forward, and had enough in the tank to fend off the odds-on favourite.
Sometimes it works out that way. More often than not it doesn’t. A solid confidence booster, nonetheless. Two winners within a week now – what an unknown feeling that is… or was.
…….
8.15 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
The likely hot pace in this race should ensure this is going to be a fair contest over the minimum trip over a CD that often can turn into a “grab the lead and it’s game over”.
There’s probably too much pressure on any of the early leaders today, and that may set it up for someone who’s tracking the pace without getting involved in the early tussle for the lead.
No question the race is competitive, but that helps provide a healthy market with value on offer. One I’m waiting for a handful of months to back is Murbih, who’s certainly too big in the betting, if in it to win it.
Being mindful of the fact the gelding has an entry on Monday at Newcastle, a CD he achieved a career-best back in March.
However, I feel Murbih is well-suited to Wolverhampton, as his record reads 5-1-3, and in some of those races he was quite unfortunate not to finish closer than he did. He usually runs well here.
In addition, the 5-year-old has been in excellent recent form. His latest run earlier this month over this CD was a huge performance. A strongly-run race, he was positioned in midfield, travelled strongly into the home straight. He got past one of the early pace setters approaching the line, however he was also beaten by two horses from off the pace, who were ridden with more restraint.
His two runs prior at Wolverhampton warranted an upgrade due to different circumstances also. In any case, he’s in excellent form, although, on the surface, perhaps also in the grip of the handicapper.
Murbih is down to a 67 handicap mark now, though. A modest reduction from last time-out. He’s not been this low for a while, though, and ran seriously well off higher, including achieving strong speed ratings this year.
And with that in mind I do believe he’s handicapped to win, also keeping in mind the way this race could shape: the #1 will give Murbih the opportunity to let the pace setters from wider draws storm ahead, and he can slot in just behind on the inside saving ground today.
In an ideal world he gets the gap as they turn home and then picks them off to win by half a lengths.
Obviously, he’s a frustrating sort who often runs well and doesn’t win all that often. But this looks a great opportunity, for a horse in form, with a good draw, a lovely mark at his preferred course and distance.
The hot favourite The Caltonian takes most of the market and that doesn’t appear unfair. It’s a question of whether the 4-year old gelding remains ahead of his mark to make it 3 from 3 in blinkers.
He’s got to carry a 10lb penalty, and may be able to continue his W-streak, having ran to a strong speed rating last time out once again. Perhaps this is a hotter contest today, and carrying top-weight won’t be as easy a task, I believe.
No doubt, he’s the likeliest winner, but I feel at the same time he’s a bit too short in a race I wouldn’t call uncompetitive.
The one I find most intriguing as an alternative is Guiteau. He caught the eye last time over this course and distance, albeit in a slightly easier race, when second behind Fayasel, who’s here today as well, and also an intriguing runner with the pace scenario likely to suit.
Nonetheless, Guiteau, only a pound higher than last time, is the one I’m siding with: after a solid start from #3 he travelled well throughout but was somewhat stuck against the inside rail and lost ground as the race developed.
He was held up around the home bend when the crucial moves where made and that cost him the race. Once out in the clear he made strong progress and ran home the fastest over the last three furlongs.
That was only his 3rd run on the All-Weather and close to his career-best. Even though Guiteau remains a maiden, I feel he’s got scope for improvement on the sand and could have a some pounds in hand.
He can be a bit keen early on. Hence pace is a question mark. From his #2 draw I hope with a more experienced rider in the saddle, Murphy won’t hesitate and simply grabs the lead if the early fractions are slow. Guiteau has performed well from the front in the past.
Otherwise, if Fayasal or Mayor Gatsby set out fast, then Guiteau is well placed to track them for a prime spot as the field turns for home. That’s the theory. In any case at 9’s he’s overpriced today.
First winner in roughly two months yesterday (with seven weeks break in between, though). And it couldn’t have been a better one. Big Rock demolished the field in the QEII.
I couldn’t quite believe the performance. As he established an eight lengths lead….. he didn’t tire and romped home in spectacular fashion.
The other jockeys seemed asleep on the wheel, on the other hand. How could they all gift this highly talented colt such a huge, uncontested lead?
It was a superb run by Swingalong in the Champions Sprint. She finished a gallant 4th, outran her odds and briefly looked like she may even win. Cant complain.
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3.20 Leopardstown: Listed Trigo Stakes, 10f
The two top-rated horses Lafayette and Sprewell are clearly the horses who should fight this out. They stand out in terms of their achievements this year.
Lafayette has been consistent for the most part this year, enjoys soft ground, stays the trip and will find this opposition a bit easier. Nonetheless, there’s an argument to be made that he’s been seen to best effect away from Leopardstown.
The opposite is true for Sprewell. He showed a lot of promise early in the season when he improved from a winning reappearance at Naas to land the Derby Trial here at Leopardstown in fine style as he denied solid yardstick Up And Under.
I wrote before how much I loved his Epsom Derby run, even though it’s probably fair to say Sprewell didn’t put his talent to best effect in two subsequent races.
In saying that, there’re solid reasons for that. For one, he raced against hot opposition in the Irish Derby and then in the Irish Champion Stakes. He also, it seems pretty clear now, prefers a softer going.
Leopardstown, 10 furlongs and plenty of give in the ground will suit today. Sprewell should enjoy this significant drop in class as well. He deserves his chance today heading the field as the favourite in my mind.
I’m happy I got my full stake matched over night at a touch over 5/2 on various exchanges, though that is rapidly disappearing and I probably would find anything below 2/1 too short for me personally, just as a side note.
It’s going to be interesting to see how the track rides and the draw it’s going to favour on this going, with the switch to the inside track.
This race could – certainly from a pace angle – shape to favour the lower drawn horses. That should very much favour Kinross who isn’t drawn too far away from those who’ll likely move forward.
Nonetheless, there are two bigger prices that I quite like to possibly outrun their odds: the two fillies Swingalong and drawn right beside her, Believing.
Both ran huge races in the same race last time out at Haydock, when third and fourth in the Group 1 Sprint Cup. Different track and ground today, yet the two fillies have shown to handle soft underfoot conditions.
Swingalong started off her season with a fine effort in the Fred Darling on deep ground. She didn’t get home in those conditions over 7 furlongs, and certainly didn’t stay a mile in even worse conditions at Longchamp in the French 1000 Guineas.
But when dropped to 6 furlongs in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, she outrun her big odds to finish a superb 3rd. She followed on to show excellent early speed and guts in the closing stages to land the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York.
At Haydock, when last seen, she was completely isolated on the stands’ side, which wasn’t ideal. The filly did well to hang on for fourth and probably could have finished much closer if she would have raced as part of the main field, I felt.
Believing raced just on the outside of the main bunch for the most part of the race that day, and she finished closer to the stands side ultimately, racing without company for the last two furlongs, which wasn’t an advantage. I loved her attitude, nonetheless, as she kept on for third place all the way to the line.
She achieved a career-best speed rating of 100 that day, having shown excellent improvement from a strong 92 showing at Pontefract when she won against the run of race after a less than ideal start from a wider than ideal draw, coming from well off the pace.
The filly is progressing all the time this year despite her relative experience with 14 career runs under the belt. She won three times this season and did so on soft ground as well.
Her draw looks ideal, she probably will be forward enough with headgear fitted for the first time, and if she tracks Swingalong, she may get a nice lead into the finish.
Swingalong herself has ran 97 speed figures back-to-back now, and may not have reached her peak yet. She has form on soft and possesses possibly a bit of extra stamina that could be key for her to stay in front in the closing stages. She has to improve again, though, that’s clear also.
This is incredibly competitive, though. Things have to go right from start to finish for both these fillies to outrun their price tag. However, if things fall right, these two fillies clearly have the ability to finish a lot closer than 30/1+ odds suggest.
What a brilliant field. A true race of champions. But does the ground change the trajectory of the race? I definitely think so. This is going to be a fast race, on soft ground. It’ll take solid cruising speed and stamina to win.
I have worries that this isn’t the right test for brilliant Tahira to bring the best out of her, as mouth watering a clash with Paddington is on paper.
Paddington is the one to beat. He’s a superb miler and possibly an even better horse over ten furlongs. He ran two 110+ speed ratings this season and has won on any ground. This mile test with cut in the ground could be an ideal test.
On the other hand, his very best form came on better ground. He also had a lot of racing and didn’t fire at York when last seen. AOB is the master to get his stars back on track, so you would think Paddington comes here in the form of his life.
Nonetheless, given the price is short enough, I think one can be bold and take this superstar colt on.
Nashwaa over a mile is one to consider. She ran 100 and 106 speed ratings the last two times over 10 furlongs. However, again the ground is a slight question mark, as her best comes on better going as well. Still, this testing mile should suit.
Chaldean over a mile on softish ground at Ascot could be a perfect match. He looks a touch overpriced.
However, clearly the one who seems the forgotten horse in this field is Big Rock. Perhaps, some take a too negative view on his last two runs when beaten favourite.
In my view, this test will suit him tremendously well. The ground, the track and the fact he may not even need to make all but rather follow the pace closely, which should be hot enough – and if not he simply moves forward – looks perfect.
Prominent horses should be favoured here and once he hits the front he may be difficult to pass.
It’s true, though, he’s got to bounce back from a somewhat unconvincing 2nd place in the Prix du Moulin. He wasn’t the sharpest away, and possibly did too much in the early stages of the race.
If one is prepared to forgive him that below-par performance – still a runner-up performance in Group 1 company – then he’s right up there with the best in this field.
His second behind Inspiral in the Jacques le Marois is seriously strong form. The filly came from off the pace to overhaul him late. He achieved a superb 108 speed rating that day, nonetheless.
In hindsight, given what Ace Impact did since then, Big Rock’s runner-up performance in the French Derby looks even better than it did on the day itself.
He did a lot in front, and was only beaten in the closing staged by the subsequent Arc winner, who was ridden with much more restraint.
Overall, Big Rock has been a consistently top-class performer this year. I believe this track, trip and ground can bring the best out of him.
If Redcar makes it as far the third race on their card today, then I’d be really keen on High Opinion to outrun his price tag.
The gelding was fancied all season but hasn’t quite delivered the goods. He caught the eye on a number of occasions, though, striking me as somewhat unfortunate to remain on a single career-win.
Clearly, judged on speed ratings he must be given a more than fair chance to change the current state today: now down to a 57 handicap mark, with the assistance of solid 3lb claiming Andrew Breslin in the saddle.
He ran 54+ speed ratings four times this year, and arguably his best performance at Ripon (56) came in a hot race where he was desperately unlucky not get a good deal closer – if only for a clear run.
The subsequent performances were a good deal better than they may appear on paper. High Opinion confirmed his wellbeing and was possibly just looking for a bit of help from the handicapper, a slightly easier race and a flat straight five with cut in the ground.
The 4-year-old is 1/14 throughout his career, hence one who often finds trouble. Today could be an ideal opportunity, though. His career-best runs came over 5 furlongs and deep ground.
He’s right drawn beside the likely pace, so in an ideal world, unless he badly misses the start, should get a nice lead into the final part of the race.
A possible negative is if they don’t go a solid gallop. High Opinion has tendencies to pull and a possible pace scenario leaves space for a somewhat slowly run race.
I highly rate the dangers of Northcliff, who despite his 0/19 record could have a class edge here, as well as Rajmeister who enjoys these conditions and won off the same mark earlier this year.
If High Opinion would be the one of the shorter prices he was in most his runs this season I’d probably give it a miss today. He’s not a winner, finds trouble, and may end up pulling his chances away. However, he’s simply a superb price, that compensates more than enough for those negatives, because he’s clearly handicapped to win, if all goes well.
There should be a good deal of pace in this race and that may bring Tuscan into play if he can find a early cover from the #9 draw, which is a concern. On the other hand there are plenty of positives for his chances and he’s got an entry next week as well, which may be worth following, depending on the result here.
Obviously the gelding has been on the slide for a while. Down to a new career-lowest mark, after what I thought was in fact a promising run at Musselburgh and subsequently at Leicester when last seen
At Musselburgh he settled well off the pace, restrained, despite a good draw. Then had a lot to do from over 3f out and didn’t seem to have the change of gear in this class required over 7 furlongs to make serious progress.
He wasn’t helped being right in the middle of a big bunch of horses and a shifting rivals over gave him a bump as well. In the grand scheme of things he ran okay, though.
Tuscan followed up at Leicester with a highly promising effort when doing a lot in the middle part and looked threatening for a brief moment, however he was behind a wall of horses and ultimately had too much to do from off the pace.
He could find himself in the same scenario, but with a good jockey booking, a clear run toward the outside may be the answer.
I’m really intrigued by his chances over this trip, especially off his current mark and in this grade. He didn’t have too many chances over a mile, certainly not in lower grades. T
The draw, as mentioned before is a concern. If he’s caught wide or too far behind it could be game over early, especially at this track. He was at his best when racing in a prominent position in the past, in fact.
All good things must come to an end: after a week of travelling it’s back to bread and butter today. The memories of York, Windsor, Goodwood and Epsom will last, though.
…..
8.00 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f
The pace looks potentially muddling in this small field. That makes it a tricky race to call and brings top-weight Compliant very much into the picture here.
The 4-year-old has to give weight away but loves the sand and this track. She may not stay 12 furlongs if run at a solid clip, but she may be able to be in the right position here and leverage her speed.
I’m intrigued by Page Three. She could be better than her current mark if the change of yards would help rectify some of her issues.
Mildyjama won well a highly competitive 10f race at this track when last seen. She was well placed, though. She may well be here once again, and that may negate the possibly negative of the new trip.
Even though a slow race may not suit her on paper, I hope this is the day to shine for Folk Star. I’m tracking the filly for a while and she didn’t prove quite as progressive as I hoped she could be this year.
In saying that, this trip will surely suit – on paper. However, Folk Star ran well, at the very least, a number of times this season over shorter trips as well. Most notably last time out over 11 furlongs here at Kempton, the race that Mildyjama won.
The run was a huge step in the right direction. She started well, travelled pretty well for most of the race in midfield, and showed a proper change of gear in the home straight, once she found a clear passage. She simply had too much to do from her position in the race.
Another day she wins it, I reckon. And with that in mind the filly proved she’s got speed as well. In this smaller field she won’t be too far off the pace, I hope, anyways. Off 63 with a good rider on board she will be competitive. Negative is the drift in the betting this morning.
Surprise Picture nearly sprang the surprise at Pontefract on Sunday. Nearly isn’t quite what puts bread on the table, though.
In contrast, Auld Toon Loon, never looked like winning but also bumped into seriously well-handicapped horse on the day.
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4.55 Brighton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
Media Guest is in sensational form and the question is only whether he can hold this level for one more race. This contest is for the taking and could be an ideal test.
Last time art Leicester he was impressive after an awkward start, as he tracked the pace keenly in the early stages, before moving forward to put everyone on the stretch from over three furlongs out.
It was a proper injection of pace right into the wind and without cover. Eventually he got tired and beaten for second by the favourite who was ridden with much more restraint and better cover.
He achieve a strong 64 speed rating which just about matched his current handicap mark, confirming the visual impression.
The gelding confirmed the impressive run from last month at Chelmsford as well, where he pushed the pace and was the winner on the line, only to be demoted to second afterwards.
He can ran off the same mark as he did at Leicester, only 1lb higher than at Chelmsford. On that front he’s clearly handicapped to go close and still has a few pounds in hand on his best, which he seems awfully close to at the moment.
7 furlongs is a stretch on soft ground most likely Decent ground will help and the pace scenario here, where enough is on to ensure that he doesn’t overrace early on should help.
It’s a stiff finish, but on pedigree the trip is no issue, it’s only his third start beyond 6 furlongs, so some natural improvement isn’t out of the question.
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