All posts by Florian Christoph

Photographer & Runner - lives in the land of rain.
Betting

Sunday Selections: 28th April 2024

Leave a comment

15.30 Weatherby: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

The pace may not be the strongest, and that could help proven front-runner Crownthorpe to outrun his price. Not sure how many want to be truly up there in testing conditions, perhaps the favourite Harswell Duke, who’s got form, is one of those.

Obviously he’s one I like, as he was a recent eyecatcher, but at prices Crownthorpe is a much better bet. This is his third run off a break, and he ran with plenty of credit on sand the two times prior.

Especially his most recent effort was quite likeable, as he was at the front of proceedings for a long time. If fitness has improved, with the return to turf and a track possibly to suit on ground he won’t mind, the veteran could be hard to pass.

The last time seen on turf was about a year ago, at Beverley on good to soft over 8.5f and he was a gallant 2nd off 6lb higher than today, behind a well-handicapped winner.

He’s got a really strong record in these lower grades and this race represents another slight drop in class.

10pts win – Crownthorpe @ 11/1

……..

5.15 Wetherby: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 6f

Flowering caught the eye a number of times over the recent weeks, without winning, though. The filly ran with plenty of credit on the All-Weather, finishing second or third in her five runs on sand this year, prior to a return to turf last time out.

Her four most recent efforts have all caught my attention in no uncertain way, and they suggest the filly, albeit possibly appearing to find ways of losing and being in the grip of the handicapper, is ripe for a ‘W’.

Earlier this week once again she was somewhat unfortunate. At Beverley, down to 10 furlongs, Flowering clearly proved her suitability for soft ground – crucial today.

The filly has developed some issues at the gate, although this time, not advantaged by the #8 gate, she also stumbled, and as a consequence was bound to travel in rear.

Drawn in #3 today, with not too much pace in the race, I hope she can get toward the front sooner rather than later, as she ran her best races from a prominent position.

At Beverley, she made strong progress, going quite well, but had to delay her run when stuck in traffic and the winner was long gone when she got clear passage. She finished best of all in the deep ground, suggesting, the step up to 1m 6f isn’t out of question.

It’s certainly worth a try, a things happen a little less quick, and that could help her. She seems a relentless galloper, and the track will suit this style, as long as she’s in a prominent racing position.

If that’s the case, a mark of 58 could underestimate her in these conditions, what’s only her 3rd run on turf. The hot favourite beat her on the sand, but soft ground, 1m 6f, at Wetherby is a different story, possibly.

10pts win – Flowering @ 4/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 13th April 2024

Leave a comment

4.00 Aintree: Grand National Handicap Chase, 4m 2f

Backing the winner of the Grand National is one that has eluded me so far. Not sure that’s going to change this year, but I feel two horses are overpriced and offer solid value chances.

I was sweet on Mr Incredible twelve months ago, and only one career run later, he’s nearly as big as back then, when he looked to be in with a solid shout until the saddle slipped after the 24th and Bryan Hayes went off board.

It’s hard to say whether he would have gone close, but I felt he went better than I ever imagined, given he can be a tricky horse. He jumped okay, for the most part, and made good progress when the race started to get serious.

He has been off the track since then, until a reappearance at the Midlands Grand National. That looked a superb warm-up. He travelled well, jumped well, made eye-catching progress and ran home strongly for 2nd.

You’d absolutely bank on a Willie Mullins horse to improve for that run under his belt. I’ve no doubt is going to be primed for a big run in the National.

The reasons to back him in 2023 also hold largely true in 2024. He remains a low-mileage 8-year-old, who showed tons of promise in his last four runs, but has only been seen a handful times over the last two seasons.

He’s 6lb higher this time, but that’s not a worry. He remains open to plenty of progress over these staying trips, especially with ground likely to suit.

I’m surprise to see such big prices on the exchanges available for him. I’d saw him closer to 12s. So, hopefully it’s second time lucky…

But if not, then I hope the Skelton trained mare Galia Des Liteaux can do the job! I’m not too fuzzed about the seemingly poor record for mares in the National. This is a changed race, easier fences, less runners, and I feel this test will suit the mare seriously well.

One has to take a leap of faith first though. She was a desperately disappointing beaten odds-on favourite in a Listed Mares Chase back in February. However, prior to that, she stayed on seriously strongly in a hot Handicap at Warwick, to finish 2nd over 3m 5f.

She’s a grinder, somewhat one paced, but with only 9 starts over fences, she’s lightly raced enough to believe there is more to come over marathon trips.

Galia Des Liteaux improved nicely this year in three of her four starts, only out of the money in the most recent Exeter run. Only once did she race beyond 3m 1f, and that we this seasons strong runner-up performance at Warwick.

There should be plenty of pace in this years National. On the current ground that will ensure a proper test of stamina. That could suit this mare to see her outrun her big price tag.

5pts win – Mr Incredible @ 18/1 (MB)
5pts win – Galia Des Liteaux @ 35/1 (SM)

……

6.00 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

This looks an ideal opportunity for Berry Clever to get off the mark after a highly promising seasonal reappearance at Southwell recently.

He was significantly hampered soon after the start and couldn’t move closer to the pace as a result, which wasn’t ideal in that race. Nonetheless he travelled well into the straight and made initially quite strong progress against the dreaded inside rail.

One can forgive him for getting tired in the closing stages and you would hope he can improve from having this run under his belt, in any case.

Still winless, but the gelding was somewhat ‘unfortunate’ in a couple of his runs as a juvenile last season. There is enough in his profile to believe he’s capable of winning a race off his current mark. 63 could prove a little bit lenient, now that he also moves up in trip.

On turf, only his second run on grass, and over a mile, which often brings out improvement for Expert Eye offspring, and dropping into a slightly grade too, with De Sousa once again on board, he looks an intriguing horse in an open contest.

The rain is the one question mark I have, if it turns the ground properly soft. It’s that lingering doubt I have whether he’s get home in that case. But the pace may not be overly hot, so it’s worth the risk.

10pts win – Berry Clever @ 6/1 (SM/MB)

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 10th April 2024

Leave a comment

4.10 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

The market is dominated by unexposed horses who may or may not be well-handicapped. It makes the pace scenario also potentially muddling.

I feel in this context of the unknown, the rather well-known Johnston filly is underestimated here, given she’s likely to run a solid standard and has excuses for a 0/7 record.

Flowering’s last two runs were seriously eye-catching, in fact. She made the list on her penultimate run over this course and distance when locked in a pace battle and doing way too much way too soon, as the finishing speed % also suggested.

I think she did well to finish as close as she did to a well-handicapped winner who also enjoyed the run of the race. The run confirmed the promise Flowering showed in her previous Handicap runs, in my view.

However, perhaps even stronger was the impression the filly gave last time over this CD once again. In a slowly run race she found herself in the worst position over 3 furlongs out and got badly hampered entering the final bend, which didn’t help her positioning.

She still finished the race strongly, coming home faster than the winner, despite not being fully ridden in the final half furlong.

Left on the same mark, she should be a strong chance dropping back to 0-60 here. Joe Fanning is back on board and given this yard often goes forward, I doubt they’ll make the same mistake again as last time out and utilise the #3 draw.

This could turn into a slowly run race too, and then Flowering will be in prime position, I hope. Whether 12 furlongs prove her best trip remains to be seen. But unless someone else moves forward and sets a testing gallop, which seems unlikely, she should find this a perfect test.

10pts win – Flowering @ 7/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 8th April 2024

Leave a comment

5.20 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Sydney Bay caught the eye on his return from a break and wind op at this track over 6 furlongs last month.

He travelled off the pace on the outside off the pack, not getting the best of cover there. He seemed outpaced in this grade over this trip 3 furlongs out but also didn’t find the clearest passage before strolling home in eyecatching fashion in the final furlong.

That form looks rock solid and if he can improve for the run with his breathing fine, he should be here on Monday a big runner, for various reasons.

The 5-year-old gelding drops significantly in grade, down to 0-55 class, a race also restricted to horses without a win since the 2023 flat turf season. This is a poor contest, the fact a now 48 rated 10-year-old is one of fancied horses, says it all.

Sydney Bay is much more home on this lowly level, obviously. Saying that, down to a mark of 53, with the excellent help of 5lb claimer William Pyle, he’s probably quite well-handicapped here, if he stays the stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle.

He won off 49 and 51 over 6 furlongs at this venue last October, and did well out of the weights off effectively 56 as a runner-up subsequently and achieved 51 and 52 speed ratings in those winning runs.

Moving up to 7 furlongs should suit, in theory. Ever since this horse came to my attention about two years ago, I thought he’d be much better if he moves to 7f, and possibly further. That hasn’t materialised, in reality, but he stayed on strongly over 6f at this stiff track, has the breeding and tried 6f+ outside maiden company only twice in his career.

Amaysmont and Crocodile Power look solid rivals in this field and both may also enjoy the run of the race toward the stands rail. I hope Sydney Bay will be ridden a bit more forward, though, tracking the pace a couple, as he showed in the past he’s suited to that (31/10/23, career-best performance).

10pts win – Sydney Bay @ 4/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 7th April 2024

Leave a comment

3.43 Bath: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

A race of this nature looks highly competitive but the ground will only allow a select few to get involved. I wouldn’t fancy a horse on a seasonal return here at all, and rather am looking for race fitness coupled with form on this ground.

With that in mind, I can’t look past Glorious Angel, the 4-year-old filly, who put up a huge performance earlier this week at Pontefract as a runner-up.

It’s tough going back to back in such short space of time, but sprinters can recover quicker, and the Tuer yard is in superb form also.

At Pontefract she had to overcome the widest and as a consequence had to do more in the early part of the race than the eventual winner. She was gutsy all the way to the line, though.

Her two runs prior this year were also noteworthy. She did way too much in a hot Listed contest at Doncaster last month over 6f, and prior on her seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton over 7f, she was still ahead with just over a furlong to go, before running out of fuel.

This Bath test on heavy ground over the minimum trip, may be the absolute ideal scenario to add a 6th career win to her CV.

Even though her win record wouldn’t quite tell the story, Glorious Angel’s career best performances all came over 5 furlongs in deep ground. She stays further, which can be of benefit, given there should be plenty of pace here.

That in itself will be of benefit, given the filly can be keen early on. Her low weight and the assistance of solid 5lb claiming apprentice Joe Leavy can only be of benefit in these conditions.

From a handicap perspective, she is certainly rated to go close, judged on last Octobers career-best effort over 5f in heavy ground at Doncaster, where she finished a gallant 2nd, off 87, achieving an 86 speed rating.

Down to 84, with the 5lb claim, in conditions she enjoys, certainly race fit, hopefully recovered well enough from Tuesday, she’s a massive runner here and I still find value in the current price.

10pts win – Glorious Angel @ 5/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 6th April 2024

Leave a comment

2.50 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

I’m inclined to give ultra-consistent veteran Reverberation a big chance in this race, despite the overall openness of the contest.

He’s one of the few uncomplicated horses in the field, and also highly likely to enjoy the run of the race from a prominent racing position.

That could be crucial today: not too many want to go forward. Some of the contenders are prone to miss the break. Hence, the #11 draw may not be a big deal, as Reverberation is a solid starter and should be able to have an uninterrupted way toward the front of the pack.

Off his current mark he’s handicapped to go well, no doubt. He bumped into a highly progressive winner last time, but ran in line with those performances he showed all winter that suggested he’s got possibly another win in him off 56, in the right circumstances.

The form of his two wins at Chelmsford over a mile and 10 furlongs back in December and January worked out quite well too, ensuring his credentials have real substance.

The 5lb claim of red-hot Joe Leavy should come in handy. He seems a good judge of pace and ridden Reverberation last time as well.

The main danger I thought could be top-weight Lucidity. The light-raced filly could have too much class in this grade, if ready to go on her seasonal reappearance. But the market suggests otherwise, for the now at least, and she’s one to keep an eye on for another day.

Favourite Mc’Ted comes here in good form. He likes this course and distance but he’s handicapped to he’s best form under a 5lb now. Given he can be moody at the start, it’s a risky proposition.

Twilight Guest sees money all morning and is competitive in this grade. 0-17 tells a story, though, and he tends to be seriously keen if the pace is slow.

That always brings me back to Reverberation. The fact he drops ever so slightly down in grade, with a good pace scenario of a fair mark gives him a good chance to score today.

10pts win – Reverberation @ 6/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers #2

Leave a comment

Flat Eyecatchers is a list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on turf and sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.

Porfin
19/03/24 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Quickly forward from the #8 draw to get to the lead upon entering the first turn. Set fast pace and always kept honest over a trip that stretches his stamina.

Has excuses for some of the last runs, either over too far or not quite an ideal run off marks possible close to what his truly is these days.

Will be highly competitive down to 6f in a race with good draw and suitable pace scenario in 0-55 class.

Sydney Bay
22/03/24 – 7.15 Newcastle:

Travelled off the pace and to the most part not well covered up. Appeared one-paced as the tempo picked up from 3f out. Although not quite the clearest of runs, had to switch and was tenderly handled after he found second wind from over 1f out for a brief moment.

Good return run from a wind operation. The run should put him spot on and give the horse confidence in his breathing, given how well he finished.

He’ll be down to a fair mark, especially if he drops back into 0-55. Ran a huge race off 56 in November and achieved solid speed ratings the two times prior when he went back to back wins.

Lilkian
22/03/24 – 3.45 Lingfield:

Stormed forward from wider than ideal draw. Did a lot in the early part and caught wide when locked in a battle for the lead. All the way going head to head in front and did well to stay up there for a long time.

Clearly hitting some form again, and additional help from handicapper can be expected. Loves it at Lingfield and Kempton over 6f.

Astral Beau
23/03/24 Doncaster – 1.20 Doncaster:

Led near side group. Quite keen in the first few furlongs. Did well to stay in front for as long as she did, always in the wind, whereas the winner was always nicely covered up. Ran home for solid second.

Had not often her preferred deep ground last year, but clearly best in proper soft conditions. Stays a mile, but perhaps a stiff 7f on deep ground is ideal.

Yet to run a really impressive speed rating given her Official Rating, but then she didn’t have too many opportunities in the right conditions. Hence one to keep an eye out, she should be capable to do so.

Grey’s Monument
23/03/24 Doncaster – 1.20 Doncaster:

Went left and bumped rival at the start. Quickly established a lead on the far side, made more than any other rival in the first two furlongs and had his head always right in the wind. Came under pressure 3f out and was a long way beaten, though did well to run home for 3rd.

Won Listed race when last seen in 2023. Gelded in the meantime. Two 90+ speed ratings achieved last season suggest he’s a proper horse and may be able to with some natural improvement for age see him develop into Group class.

Intriguing that blinkers were left off. Improvement came with it ever since first applied. If they are refitted, over a mile (also goes well over 7f) with some juice in the ground (best form good to soft), he’s one to back.

Harswell Duke + Lion Tower
23/03/24 – 2.25 Doncaster:

The two pace setter in the Spring Mile faded quite badly from two furlongs out but they were all the way through in the wind, especially Harswell Duke had to take most of it.

He won this race last year and has been in poor form ever since, although his September run at Southwell showed there is still something there. He’s not up to this level, but dropped to 72 now, he can race off a seriously nice mark wherever he goes next over a mile on proper soft ground.

Lion Tower has also fallen a long way in the mark. The handicapper has been a little less lenient, perhaps because he ran so well on his return at Newcastle back in February.

He’s got no chance to get home over a mile on soft ground. He’s not been expected in the betting in a while, too. Hence that February run is noteworthy. If he can find some decent ground, perhaps ideally over 7 furlongs, he’ll be dangerous soon.

One Night Thunder
23/03/24 – 3.35 Doncaster:

Quickly moved forward to lead the near side running right into the wind. Travelled quick well to 3f out when he kicked on and was in the mix until fading slowly from 2f out. Strong run in the circumstances.

Probably not quite good enough for this grade or his current mark, but will get help from handicapper, can move into lower grades and remains an intriguing type with low mileage and only 4 handicaps under his belt. Was an expensive £300k yearling.

Hasn’t fulfilled the promise yet but ran well as 3yo a couple of times suggesting he can win despite not having shown it on the clock yet. He had too few opportunities to properly shine. The dam did well as a 4-year old too. He may not mind a drop to 7f in soft conditions.

Parisiac
24/04/23 – 3.05 Doncaster:

Awkward start, cost early momentum but he quickly got into stride and marched forward to set fast pace locked in a pace battle. Did well to run well enough for long and showed nice attitude deep into the final furlong.

Was outclassed here. 5f with juice in the ground or 6f on practically any ground can work. Probably a flatter track for the 6f, something stiffer will see him to best effect over the minimum trip.

A consistent front-runner in the right grade. Ran 75 and 71 speed ratings last year and worth to wait for drop to class 5. Any help from the handicapper is a bonus.

The other early pace in this race, Blind Beggar is also one to note if he drops in class and mark in the next weeks.

Stressfree
24/04/24 – 3.40 Doncaster:

Travelled off the pace seriously well, going strongly approaching two furlongs out but had too much to do behind a winner who was seriously well handicapped and enjoyed the run of the race. Only over 2f out asked for full effort and the pace wasn’t overly hot.

Warrants an upgrade as he travelled and finished like a well-handicapped horse, and handicapper can’t be too harsh for a 1.5l defeat. Can be ridden further forward too.

Smart Family. Dam’s 5/9 offspring are stakes placed. Probably won’t enjoy fast ground. Best performance in this family with juice in the ground.

Birkenhead
25/04/24 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Set a decent gallop having to come somewhat across from the #2 draw. Kicked on and stayed inf nearly to the end. Only 1/4l beaten in the end. Super run. Clearly back in form.

Remains to be seen what the handicapper does. I’d be most interested see him on turf if he can find a dry day with fast ground, as unlikely that seems for the moment, worth to wait for.

A similar lowly race on the sand where the pace scenario is advantageous isn’t out of question, ideally not Newcastle.

Mums Tipple
27/04/24 – 7.00 Kempton:

Travelled in rear and not advantaged by that due to a slow pace. Eyecatching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest as well.

Strong run given the winner was much better positioned. Pulled hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior and was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held.

He’s not done much on speed ratings for a while but I’d be intrigued to see him over 6 or 7f in a Listed event especially. He must be in serious form and should revert to more prominent tactics too.

Super Hit
28/03/24 – 7.30 Southwell:

Quickly forward, keen as he tracked the eventual leader. Was going alright and kicked on in the home straight. Hung badly 2f out but stuck gamely to the task and only beaten with half a furlong out.

Ran strong 69 speed rating but unlikely handicapper can be harsh for this run. Clearly has capabilities to be better than 71, nicely bred and improvement should come for stepping up to a mile, although 7f fine too, for now.

He needs to settle better and hopefully with experience this lightly raced colt can learn.

Berry Clever
28/03/24 – 7.30 Southwell:

Hampered soon after the start and couldn’t move closer to the pace as a result. Travelled well into the straight and made initially strong progress against the dreaded inside rail.

Tired from 1.5f out. Somewhat ‘unlucky’ in a couple of his runs as a juvenile. Should be capable of winning a race off his current mark. Interesting if he moves up to a mile as his breeding suggest more’s to come then. Ideally he could drop slightly in class to 0-65.

Digital
28/03/24 – 8.00 Southwell:

Moved keenly forward from the widest draw. Set a good pace that contributed to some good speed figures achieved in the race. Showed good attitude before getting really tired.

First run after a break and for a new yard. Ran to 71 and 70 speed ratings last season. Best over 5f. Good record on AW but also acts on turf and good record in the summer months.

Should get more help from handicapper and if he can drop into 0-75 with not much pace to compete could be too classy.

Eight Army + Old Chums
29/03/24 – 2.50 Chelmsford:

Widest draw and awkward away. Soon recovered and rushed forward. Lead as part of duo setting a seemingly rapid pace. Wasn’t able to keep it up. Seasonal reappearance.

Probably strong form, quite competitive race for this class. Ran well in hot races as a juvenile last autumn. Those races worked out rather well in the meantime.

Should be able to step up in trip and improve given his pedigree. Handicapper may drop him sufficiently and if he moves up into an easier race he’ll be of real interest.

Fellow pace setter Old Chums also stormed forward and it was impressive that he was able to keep going to finish second behind a well-handicapped winner.

He’s got experience and may reach his peak soon, but I feel there’s another win in him off his current mark in this grade over 6f but also may be able to stretch out to 7f. The dam won a Listed race over a mile and was highly prolific on both turf and the sand.

Magical Vision
30/03/24 – 4.40 Cork:

Travelled keenly in midfield early on, going well but stuck in a pocket behind the leaders and only inside the furlong got out. Looked bit awkward too but finished well.

Probably quite strong form. She was well backed too. Still low mileage. Ran some good ratings last year. A stiff finish brings out the best in her especially on soft ground.

Yosemite Valley
30/03/24 – 3.30 Cork:

Travelled quite well but was a bit in a pocket 1.5f out that meant at the most crucial stage he had to ever so slightly delay his run and get galvanized again for full effort. He finished strongly on his seasonal reappearance.

Career-best on speed ratings. Had some assignments last year but shaped with plenty of promise. Hang the race away on his final outing over 7f but he should be able to get home over that trip. Interesting on better ground too and should be able to win a Listed race.

Cavalier Approach
31/03/24 – 5.35 Southwell:

Part of the early pace before setting in third tracking closely. The pace was red hot and he was inevitably to fade but made strong headway from 3f out.

Excellent reappearance. Strong run when last seen at Newmarket, better than bare result. And excellent Hamilton win before. Maybe doesn’t like it quite heavy if he returns to turf. Loves stiff finishes.

If he could get some additional help from the handicapper he’ll be interesting in 0-70. Yet to fully convince on speed ratings but ran an 80 RPR at Hamilton. Usually quite consistent and up with the pace.

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 2nd April 2024

Leave a comment

4.15 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap

There isn’t much substance in this field beyond the short-priced favourite. Bustaam looks progressive and may defy a 10lb higher mark for an easy victory at Doncaster.

On the other hand he hasn’t achieved a good speed rating on turf (yet) in four runs and is prone to miss the kick, not ideal at Pontefract, especially in a possibly slowly run race.

Top-weight Lord Melbourne makes some appeal on his handicap debut, though. Back to the venue where he was seen to best effect last year.

It was a career-best performance here at Pontefract when runner-up behind a subsequent listed winner. He handled softish ground just fine and was simply outstayed over 12 furlongs. However he showed a nice change of gear from 4 furlongs out.

He cost a bit of money as a yearling and is quite well bred, naturally then. Gelded just before his debut run, though, he seems a somewhat tricky character, as the application of cheek-pieces showed in his final runs in 2023.

Head gear is off today, a question mark, but you hope with natural improvement he could be better than his opening mark of 77, given the CP’s didn’t do anything for him.

There is certainly enough substance in his performances, if you strike out his penultimate run at Wolverhampton when injured during the race.

He travelled quite well when last seen at Wolverhampton in December, but was short of room at a crucial stage around the home bend and then didn’t see out the trip, I believe.

A return to turf should be a positive. His two runs where his best, so far, including the aforementioned Ponti run. 10 furlongs could prove an ideal trip, judged by his runs over 1m 4f where he travelled nicely, was also able to change gear but didn’t get home.

The heavy ground is a question mark. He handled good to soft and on pedigree there is plenty of soft ground form, which gives hope. He comes into this 0-75 race as a 77 rated individual. If he can put it all together the gelding could prove way too classy, especially if he gets it easy in front.

This is Harry Davies’ only ride today, and he goes well for this yard, which does well when it sends horses to the front. I hope that’s the game plan today with not much other pace to compete with.

The 4-year-old seems on the drift this morning in the betting. That’s a risk. But I hope he’s not just here for a public workout.

10pts win – Lord Melbourne @ 5/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 1st April 2024

Leave a comment

It was amazing to cheer home Stag Night at Cork on Saturday. A second winner for the month, for the season, for the year… small sample size, but 30pts up moving into April, I’ll take that.

……

5.00 Fairyhouse: Irish Grand National, 3m 5f

Lightly raced and progressive Nick Rockett appears to be a rock solid favourite. Able to run off 146 he could easily be a good deal better than this current handicapper assessment.

He impressed in his three starts over fences this year in hot enough company. Only five lengths behind Corbetts Cross in December, and an excellent runner- up behind American Mike in February when he stepped up to 3 miles under rules for the first time.

Trained by Willie Mullins, one has to take that into account, but the price is skinny enough. There are reasons to take this 7-year old on: evidently he isn’t the biggest horse and with that in mind a 21-runner big National is a new experience.

An uncompetitive maiden hurdle at Naas isn’t quite the same as the Irish Grand National, especially as there should be a lot of action toward the front of the pack today.

Going 3m 5f is a first, too. Nick Rockett won a Point to Point over 3 miles, that gives hope but doesn’t provide a guarantee, especially if the race is fast on this heavy ground.

There are two I’m interested in against this favourite: one is stable mate We’llhavewan, who’s also surprisingly low mileage over fences and potentially on a really good mark compared to his hurdles rating.

He ran a fine race when second in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown, when effectively 5lb wrong due to being out the handicap and Townend weighing in over.

I thought it was impressive how he surged from over 4 furlongs out, making a big bold move after jumping the second last and seemed briefly to have a lead that’ll last for a win. That big move cost him dearly in the end, though, as he was reeled in an finished a tired 2nd.

He hasn’t been seen often jumping a fence since winning on his chasing debut in summer 2022, but had excuses afterwards. His jumping was pretty assured at Punchestown, though.

We’llhavewan had a light campaign, won well over hurdles and looks favourably weighted here at the bottom of the field with valuable 5lb claimed by Kieran Callaghan. Whether he’ll truly stays the trip we’ll find out later.

The other one I’m interested in is Favori De Champdou. He’s a decent hurdler but already looks a better chase, and no surprise given his connections.

He’s low mileage for a 9-year-old and was quite impressive when he won the Florida Pearl at Punchestown early in the season. He bombed out the last two and requires a bit of faith that he’s back to the previous form.

Still, only 4 runs over fences, there’s possibly more to come. This is the game he’s been bought for. If you can forgive him those last two runs, he looks like an exciting Novice Chaser.

Conditions should suit and he had a small break. A return to a right-handed track can also suit. He ran to a 151 RPR at Punchestown, if he can get back to that form and show any improvement, he’ll be right in the mix off 145.

5pts win – Favori De Champdou @ 19/1
5pts win – We’llhavewan @ 11.5/1

……

1.40 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Richard Hannon has his string in strong order, hence returning Major Major makes some appeal, if he’s ready to go in a weak enough race that could fall into his lap.

There shouldn’t be too much pace on, so he could either move forward and make all, or follow closely whoever else is doing the donkey work for him.

The 4-year-old gelding improved nicely over these longer trips last season and his last two performances warranted an upgrade in competitive Handicaps.

He’s unexposed on the All-Weather and could improve for this surface given his breeding and family on the dam side all done well on the sand. His final start in 2023 at Lingfield’s polytrack was eyecatching, and if he can translate this form to tapeta he’ll be a strong chance today.

A mark off 68 could underestimate him. Certainly in conditions and pace likely in his favour today, with excellent 5lb claiming Alec Voikhansky in the saddle.

He achieved a 65 speed rating on turf last season. He should be able to run to this level, perhaps even better on All-Weather too. He looks a good win ahead of his mark.

10pts win – Major Major @ 13/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 30th March 2024

Leave a comment

Super run by Misty Grey yesterday in the competitive All-Weather Sprint Handicap at Newcastle. He finished a gallant 2nd.

Ultimately beaten beaten by a stronger winner from off the pace. Nonetheless, a huge run given his 16/1 price and can’t ask for more.

Unfortunately Shoot To Kill missed the break and had a mountain to climb there and then – too much, but most likely he wouldn’t have had a chance with the impressive Cephalus in any case. Tempus run as the price suggested, sadly. Tracked the pace but wasn’t good enough on the day.

…….

4.40 Cork: Handicap, 5f

I have been weighing up all last night and this morning whether to get involved in this race. It’s competitive. Unexposed Goal Exceeded is potentially the “x-factor”, hard to gauge but possibly well-handicapped.

Two Stars and Stag Night meet once again after they locked horns a fortnight ago and also at the Curragh in their respective final runs last season.

Two Stars the likely pace angle in the race, this is where the pace will develop. That’s a positive for Stag Night, but also lightly raced Goal Exceeded.

I’m questioning whether this is the right trip for Goal Exceeded, though. Perhaps an additional furlong is much more likely to see him to best effect, for that he could be well-handicapped today on Handicap debut.

Nonetheless, as a 3-year-old against some seasoned sprinters, on deep ground, appears quite a stiff task, and with that in mind I find his price too short.

Two Stars remains quite unexposed, too, and has shown excellent early speed in all his runs since a slow start in his debut run. He ran to 82 on speed ratings in his final race last year at the Curragh. The handicapper has been lenient to leave his mark untouched after that as well as the recent third placed effort.

He’s an obvious chance today, but quite a short price, and may face some competition for the pace as well.

This his is competitive and the likes of Never Shout Never, mud lover Mickey The Steel, dangerously well-handicap Mehman or the mare Magical Vision can’t be ruled out.

What gets me always back to Stag Night is the fact this should turn today into a a testing enough 5 furlongs, with a couple in the field likely to keep Two Stars honest up front, which will be a huge help to his chances.

Stag night is still low mileage for a 6-year-old, he had issues with his feet, reportedly. Nonetheless, last season in his final two runs on deep ground over 5- and 6f he was able to produce significantly improvement performances.

An 84 speed rating for his Naas win, bettered by a 91 speed rating when a super 3rd in a tight finish at the Curragh. He clearly was well when he returned at the Curragh earlier this months too, as he looked good in the parade ring where I saw him prior to the race in flesh.

He ran really well and “won” the race on his side, but couldn’t live with the turn of foot of the eventual winner, who made a move away from the pace, though, and was possibly seen too late as well.

Stag Night is up a pound for the run, but intriguingly has the assistance of young apprentice Danny Power, who claims invaluable 10lbs. This is only his second ride under rules.

The young apprentice looked quite comfortable on his sole ride at Dundalk, though. I think this weight allowance can only be a help for Stag Night in the deep ground. He is an uncomplicated sort. Just ride him, push him out, and given he only has to follow the lead of Two Stars, who’s drawn right beside, this shouldn’t be too tricky.

Given the price has gone to a point where I feel comfortable to get involved in this competitive race, I’ll have the bet on Stag Night. Ideally he’d go up to 6 furlongs, I feel. But at around 5/1 now he’s more than a point bigger than I’d have him.

10pts win – Stag Night @ 5/1