All posts by Florian Christoph

Photographer & Runner - lives in the land of rain.
Betting

Monday Selections: 19th June 2023

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Never Ending Story ran a super race for 2nd place in the Diane. But again, nothing to shout about, I’m afraid. She had absolutely no chance with sensational Blue Rose Cen.

Alligator Alley went off too hard and faded for 3rd. Michael’s Choice ran a shocker, after being punted into 5/2f. Typical, at the moment.

27 down and getting rather too close for comfort to the all-time longest losing streak of 31 from last autumn. I guess, if hitting a rotten spell, then let it be one for the ages.

More often than not selections beat SP, so I’m not too worried. The last 4 month things went only one way; at some point it has to go the other way.

Variance is real, and can be painful. And it happens regularly, I need to remind myself. There were multiple runs of 12-20 consecutive losers this year already, and yet it’s a winning year – so far. The average odds back then were not much different to what I’m backing now. What’s happening right now is, to the most part, random, and down to ‘luck’.

I find it helpful in these dark days to consult my records but also always remember Hugh Taylor’s excellent educational piece many years ago:

Saying that, I would lie if I would say this current run doesn’t weigh on my confidence at least a little bit. A winner would help, sooner rather than later.

……

6.55 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

A handicap for horses winless this year. It looks competitive on the outset, however the pace scenario could compromise the chance of some of the better fancied runners, like Good Luck Fox and Strong Power.

The one I’m fascinated by is Jojo Rabbit, who goes from #1 one and who may enjoy the company of Eeh Bah Gum, who’s also a pace horse and drawn right beside him If these two move ahead, I think it’ll compromise the chances of the higher drawn runners.

Jojo Rabbit showed a clear return to form last time at Ayr. The form hasn’t quite worked out but he ran extremely well from the front for a long time, always under pressure.

He dropped another 2lb, now down to 73, that’s a whopping 12lb below his last winning mark, which was a class success over this course and distance last summer.

Fast ground and minimum trip seem to bring the best out of the gelding and this will be the first time he should find ideal conditions this season. With his lowed mark and possibly good pace scenario he looks dangerous.

Saying that, I made this bet on the basis of an earlier weather forecast which said there wouldn’t be too much rain tomorrow, expect some showed tonight but warm and sunny on Monday. That has changed now: it seems to be coming badly now.

It wouldn’t be the end of the world. Jojo Rabbit has some solid form with some cut in the ground. But it’s far from ideal. My money is down, though, and that’s that.

10pts win – Jojo Rabbit @ 6/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 18th June 2023

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After another disappointing Saturday on the betting front I went for a little walk to the Curragh around the Derby course.

A lovely evening once the rain subsided with some beautiful light to illuminate the Curragh.

……..

3.50 Doncaster: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

Burning Cash looks seriously well weighted to go close, but I can’t move past Alligator Alley who was such a huge eyecatcher at Epsom last time out in the infamous Dash.

He was first-time visored and seemed to respond a bit too keenly to the new headgear as he forced his gate open, which set a chain of events in motion.

As for his own race, he was keen early on jumped the grass path over 4 furlongs out, bumped a rival and became briefly unbalanced moments, was subsequently short of room with the rider taking a pull.

Nonetheless, he ran home in eye catching fashion, hard on the bridle and still managed to finish strongly in the final furlong.

The handicapper dropped him another 2lb, which makes him a proper danger off 94 here, especially if he could start a bit sharper with visor.

Two runs back at York off 4lb higher was also quite a strong run; I thought, confirming the excellent form the gelding is in at the moment. He should get a clear run on the outside of the field here, so hopefully no excuses this time.

10pts win – Alligator Alley @ 4/1

………

4.00 Salisbury: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

I’m prepared to forgive Michaels Choice his latest poor showing at Lingfield. Things didn’t look right there right from the start.

However, judged on his comeback run over his preferred course and distance – 6f at Salisbury – he should have a big chance here. He’ 3-2-1 over this CD, and looked as good as ever in May when the race developed against him.

That day he had the widest draw to overcome which was a significant enough disadvantage as he raced widest without cover as a consequence. Nonetheless, he made good progress from over 2f out on the outside of the field, to challenge, before he tired late.

A strong run on his seasonal reappearance which achieved a 66 speed rating as well. Clearly, based on that, he’s as good as ever.

Michaels Choice won off 70 multiple times in the past and ran to 70 speed rating twice last year, including when winning over this CD last July.

10pts win – Michaels Choice @ 7/2

……..

3.05 Chantilly: Prix de Diane, 1m 2.5f

A competitive renewal but I want to give Never Ending Story another chance after her disappointing showing the in the French Guineas, where she seemed never really in it after receiving an early bump by a rival.

Moving up in trip should suit this daughter of Athena, though, and ever since she won the 1000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown back in April I felt she is a high-class filly, a Group 1 winner in the making.

That day she was gutsy, stayed on strongly and proved that she has progressed after a somewhat underwhelming juvenile campaign.

She looked stronger than ever, and ran a solid 90 speed rating, as the form has ben given a significant boost in the meantime by the second and third.

I imagine she’s even better beyond a mile in any case, and everything she’s done so far is positive to sign for what’s still to come.

That she was able to win a good race over 7 furlongs, means she has the speed. Now let’s bring in some stamina and she’s seriously underestimated today, especially from a good draw.

10pts win – Never Ending Story @ 16/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 17th June 2023

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Not gonna happen right now, is it? Huge run by Barrier despite drifting out to 33s for 2nd place, but that’s no good for me as a win only backer. Bell Song was well backed down to 9/2 SP, and then didn’t get a run from off the pace.

Searching vain for the elusive next winner. “Funny” thing: pretty much the exact same happened last year at this time of the year. A torrid first half of June.

…….

4.10 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Lunario was arguably an unfortunate 3rd last time at Lingfield, when beaten in the tightest of finishes in a photo that could have gone either way. On a different day he could have been the winner.

Fair arguments can be brought forward for the notion that he was the ‘moral winner’ – if such thing would exist – and he should be able to make amends here on Saturday.

He meets Gone once again, the winner last time at Lingfield, but on better terms. Because Gone has gone up a couple of pounds, whereas Lunario remains on the same mark.

Over 7.5 furlongs at Lingfield last time out I felt the performance warranted an upgrade, though. And if that proves correct, the colt could be well-handicapped.

There he was slightly bumped by a rival as the left the gates. Still somewhat green and raw, he was niggled behind the leading horses, possibly even a bit flat footed, but then made huge progress on the outside once pulled out for a clear view of the final furlong.

Even tough he seemed destined to run home and grab the W, he didn’t help his case when hanging badly to the left, as he continued showing greenness.

That was Lunario’s Handicap debut and it’s fair to assume he can progress from here. If he can than there is every possibility that he’s better than a 65 Official Rating.

He steps up in trip, albeit ever so slightly. On pedigree there’s no doubt he’ll stay a mile, in any case.

It’s also worth pointing out that at Lingfield he achieved a 65 speed rating, despite everything that went wrong on the day. Therefore, he must have a massive chance to win, if he runs straight to the line.

10pts win – Lunario @ 5/1

…….

1.45 Scottsville: Grade 3, Track And Ball Derby, 12f

Airways Law is one I’m tracking for over a year now, ever since he caught the eye on the All-Weather with some scintillating performances early in his career, before he won a Durban July trial in impressive fashion and subsequently ran an eyecatching race in the July.

He’s hard to fancy on recent form, or basically anything he had done since last July in four subsequent runs. Although, his two runs in Grade 2 company in December and January were a lot better than the bare form suggested.

The gelding had a recent comeback run here at Scottsville after about 6 months off the track. He had a tough task over the short trip and on the weights and wasn’t expected to do much.

A 12/12, 13 lengths beaten result doesn’t instill much confidence that he’s anywhere near in form. But as he moves up in trip, and quite significantly, it’s should be noted Airways Law usually improves for his second run.

There is every chance that this here is a prep run for a bigger date on the July card (or the big one itself), but the fact he 2/3 for rest+2 is pointing more toward that this is his “July”, as he also would need to show a significant return to form to feature in any future big race.

The trip is on the far end of what the gelding is likely to stay. On the other hand they won’t go a mad gallop and this race is much easier than the Grade 2’s he ran in prior.

Also, looking back to last years July run, which was as far as he ever went, he stayed on pretty well This is a very winnable contest and the fact he travelled well and with enthusiasm during his recent reappearance suggests there is still some fire in the belly.

10pts win – Airways Law @ 8/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 16th June 2023

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19 and counting… worst losing run in a while. Griggy a big drifter on the day, never spotted in the race. Making a habit of it right now. On to tomorrow…

……

6.05 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Barrier is one of the Handicappers to follow and I feel this looks an ideal Handicap debut for the filly. Judge her on a poor seasonal reappearance at your peril, dare I say…. this is a completely different proposition than what she encountered at Newmarket.

She dropped out rapidly and seriously badly from 4f out, but you could also argue until then she ran quite well, given she missed the break badly. actually.

That was tough opener, against strong opposition to the most part. It served the purpose to qualify for Handicaps, though. She can start off a 67 mark, which could be significantly underestimating her.

The drop to 10 furlongs doesn’t worry me too much, although she may turn out to be better over further. The opening mark is simply so low, I find it hard to believe, especially as she showed promise as a juvenile, on her final start in 2022 at Ascot, where I felt her run warrants an upgrade.

New headgear may help her to get her race off a bit sharper. She missed the break in all her starts, so that’s a concern. The fast ground is somewhat of an unknown, too, given it’s hard to take anything away from that lto run.

Nonetheless, I can’t leave her unbacked at this price, even though I would hope there is some support in the market later. It could also mean I’ve got it spectacularly wrong in my assessment of this filly.

10pts win – Barrier @ 20/1

………….

4.25 Sandown: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Absolutely no doubt Bell Song is well-handicapped off 72 in her second run in Handicap company. She showed plenty in each of her three starts this year, including on Handicap debut last week, but has been given a real opportunity by the handicapper, who couldn’t have been any fairer.

Last week at Chelmsford she had the widest draw to overcome., which was a major disadvantage. She was caught wide and didn’t find cover for the first half of the race.

As a consequence she moved forward, used up loads of energy, to find a suitable position, eventually. It was impressive how she was able to kick on approaching the home straight and also the way she stayed well to the line despite all the trouble.

She was only beaten by one ridden with more restraint from a low draw. How good the form is remains to be seen, but the filly couldn’t have done much more to catch the eye. She has been left, surprisingly, on a 72 mark.

Which in itself looks on the low side, given her excellent seasonal reappearance at Southwell that looks quite strong form, where she didn’t get a clear run, otherwise she would have finished closer.

She may need to move up to a mile to be seen to best effect, but 7 furlongs seem fine for now. The pace looks somewhat muddling in this race. That’s a good and a bad thing.

One hand it means she should have no issue overcoming the #8 draw and follow the lead of likely front-runner Taritino drawn right beside her. She should be in an ideal position if all goes well. But she can be a bit keen as well, and may prefer a decent pace to aim at. There’s a risk.

Saying that, the risks are possibly outweighed simply by the fact that the filly could have way too much in hand in this field, I believe, on what is her turf debut, with fast ground probably to suit, given the pedigree. I don’t get this price, at all.

10pts win – Bell Song @ 11/1

………

3.35 York: Listed Ganton Stakes, 1m

This race and pace scenario screams for an upset. Shining Blue is expected to go off as favourite. That’s fair. He won really well in Handicap company when last seen over 7 furlongs and does stay a mile.

On the other hand, the shorter trip is probably his optimum. His best speed rating came in January at Meydan over 7f. Purely judged on that he’s the one to beat.

A mile, fast ground, muddling pace, is a somewhat different scenario, and outside Meydan his form isn’t all that impressive. Therefore, he could be more vulnerable than the short price suggests.

El Drama is the pick on career-best speed ratings. But he may like it a bit longer than a mile and he hasn’t ran any faster than speed ratings in the 70s in over two years. That’s normally not good enough for this level. But then, this isn’t an overly strong race, either.

Chichester should find this easier than the last time and ran well on the All-Weather before. Though, he might be outpaced if this turns into a sprint for home and he could be poorly positioned in rear.

Longshot Silver Screen can’t be fancied, however Azano has all the right attributes to outrun his price here.

He’s only rated 92, and has a lot to find on Official Ratings and normally wouldn’t be too likely to land a blow outside Handicap company. Yet, this race may fall into his lap.

On the plus side, he showed fine form in his last two runs this year. Last time at Sandown he did too much to get to the front from his wide draw when he made the donkey work for those from off the pace, basically.

His Newmarket run in May, though, was strong, and a repeat of that form could be good enough to win this Listed contest.

That day he made the most of the standing start when he quickly moved forward to lead, as he set a strong pace and had the field on the stretch from 3 furlongs out. He ran home well and even rallied in the final furlong, but was eventually beaten by a strong winner.

I do rate that performance, as it represented somewhat of a return to close of his best form. Hos best gives him a definite chance her. Especially over a mile on fast ground where he may find himself able to dominate.

Although the earlier prices of around 40s seem rapidly disappearing since having started writing this post, I think what’s on offer is still a huge price given the likely circumstances of this race, and I’d be pretty certain Azano will outrun these odds.

10pts win – Azano @19/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 15th June 2023

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Wow. Truly shocking stuff right now. 18 and counting. It all goes wrong. A truly odd ride on Pearle D’or, who finished 6/7 but had zero chance from his position after being restraint, despite the fact his upturn in form came when making the running last time.

He didn’t even have a bad start. In fact, all options were open to Jason Watson for about the lengths of the first furlong. He opted for the worst of all options – the only one you want to take over this course & distance if you want to minimise your chances of winning.

Not here to bash jockeys from my armchair. It is what it is, but I felt the horse was not given a fair chance, and that’s disappointing. It fits the picture right now as it happened a number of times over the last days that the race was over right after the start. A rotten spell of the worst kind.

………

5.10 Yarmouth: Class 6 Classified Stakes, 6f

This is a rather competitive field for this nature of race. The pace scenario looks ominous. There should be enough on for a fair race, although it all is going to develop toward the far rail, most likely.

That’s not quite ideal for my selection, Griggy. He goes from #8, but I hope he can find find away to start well, cross over and track the early pace. Or do I make the same mistake once again, backing a horse who’s chances are gone less than 10 seconds into the race?

If the possible pace setters Bernard Spierpoint, Oxygen Thief and Wrath of Hector go off too hard and take each other on it could tow Griggy nicely into the finish, though.

He certainly looks in excellent form and must have a prime chance in this contest after his latest eyecatching effort at Brighton.

He was forced to settle off the pace given the way the race developed at early, but was going well, poised for a challenge 3f out. Unfortunately, he had to wait for room as the gap was never truely opening up with horses right, left and center shifting around.

It was only late in the day he found the clear passage, and that’s when he finished best in the final furlong, eventually.

A great run and a clear return to form after two lesser efforts on the All-Weather.

Griggy is down to a sexy mark and that offers him the opportunity to run here in the Classified 0-50 contest. An 0/5 record on turf ready poorly, however he was never expected in any of those runs, including the most recent eyecatching one.

The Bath performance proved that he clearly handles fast ground and is dangerous on turf over 6 furlongs as well. The additional half furlong will be in his favour and a fast pace to track looks ideal, as long as he doesn’t get caught on the outside without cover.

The additional 3lb claim of a solid rider in the saddle are an added bonus. That’s the reason why I feel it’s worth taking on hot favourite Bernard Spierpoint who was an impressive winner and always goes well in these type of races.

He ran an impressive speed rating, judged on his current Official Rating certainly, as well. At the same time, Yarmough is a completely different track to Brighton, the pace is a different one here, and that most recent field of five rivals he had to beat was incredibly poor.

There are some better rivals here. First and foremost Griggy, who has an advantage in the weights, too.

10pts win – Griggy @ 5/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 14th June 2023

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Grim stuff today. I was quietly confident to back a winner, maybe even somewhat hopeful of landing the double, as I thought both Muy Muy Guapo and Revoquable were seriously well-handicapped in their races.

They may have been. Both ran – given the circumstances – not bad races. Although, Revoquable was eased after his big mid-race effort couldn’t make up for the disadvantage he had to overcome after the start. Muy Muy Guapo had too much to do from the back of the field and didn’t get the best of runs either.

It was a risk – and I willingly played the risk, so can’t complain and only wonder whether my judgement was correct – both horses are prone to sluggish starts to their races. So it happened, and that was that for their chances, basically.

This game can throw you off course rapidly. Only Monday a week ago I was still on a great run, having backed seven winners in a fortnight…eight days later, and it’s 17 losers on the bounce. Autsch.

It’s the usual up and down. Even last month, a solid green month, there were sequences of 14 losers and 10 losers. It happens. Over these last days there are perhaps two bets I would like to have back. The others I’d do again in the same situation.

Also many have ran well, but circumstances were against them. I back low-grade horses mostly – small things can change their fortunes dramatically. That’s all part and parcel of the game.

………

7.50 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

A hot race, pace wise, that’s for sure. I’m less sure about the depth of this class 4 contest. Not many of these 7 runners appear well-handicapped or open to any unknown improvement.

That could play into the hands of Pearle D’or, who remains lightly raced and somewhat unexposed as a four-year-old.

He caught the eye last week at Yarmouth wearing a hood for the first time. That day he quickly established the lead and clearly enjoyed the front, without showing the signs of keenness he did on his seasonal debut.

He kicked on well over 2f out and broke the hearts of most of his rivals, bar a strong winner who stayed on strongly from off the pace to wear him down inside the last 150 yards.

That was his 2nd start for a new yard after he changed hands for 40k and moved over from ireland.

The last two seasons trained by Dermot Weld, the gelding showed some promise, especially when landing a 6f maiden on his racecourse debut at Naas, when he also achieved a noteworthy 76 speed rating.

Things went downhill from there and he’s probably not quite as good as initially hoped after that debut win. But he’s down a possibly lenient 82 mark right now, and showed a proper sign of form last time out.

Decent ground should suit, he certainly acted on the fast surface at Yarmouth. Hamilton’s stiff finish could suit as well, given he won so well at the equally stiff Naas over this trip.

He also has options to move up in trip on pedigree. This extra bit of stamina, coupled with decent early speed, may be the ideal combination in this race with a hot pace expected up the Hamilton hill to the line.

10pts win – Pearle D’or @ 9/2

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 13th June 2023

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3.10 Salisbury: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Muy Muy Guapo drops in class and trip. Hopefully the sign that the handbrake is off. If it is, I do believe this lad could go on a streak and win two or three on the bounce.

He was a massive eyecatcher back In February as he returned from a break for a new yard. He travelled so sweetly, and was able to answer all the accelerations from the leading bunch so easily – horses in this grade don’t do that often, normally.

He’s still a colt – although hardly a stallion prospect – and cost £115k as a yearling. So there must be some talent, as visual evidence suggests as well.

He wasn’t expected in his last runs but once again caught the eye when last seen at Newmarket. He was drawn away from the pace and raced away from where the race developed. He had no chance from there and was ridden in a way to ensure he wouldn’t show too much, either.

Nonetheless, he made some nice progress from halfway through the race, and finished, without ever being properly asked, the fourth fastest home over the last three furlongs.

He drops down to class 6, also down to 6 furlongs, which I feel is possibly his optimum trip. He can start awkwardly and that is a risk, especially from the #5 gate at Salisbury. He may be trapped if he doesn’t get away well.

I’m prepared to take the risk as he’s more likely to be very well handicapped off 66, I believe.

10pts win – Muy Muy Guapo @ 13/2

………

5.50 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Revoquable is in tremendous form but can be his own worst enemy as he’s not a smart starter. Nonetheless, each of his last runs was noteworthy and better than the bare form.

He was bumped early the last time at Redcar and didn’t seem to travel too well subsequently, yet showed a great acceleration mid-race and ran on well to finish a fine 4th and ran to a 51 speed rating.

Wide draws and the way the races developed didn’t help in preceding runs, nonetheless, at Thirsk, when a strong runner-up, he showed a lot of adversity as he finished best, and achieved an fine 54 speed rating.

The fact that he confirmed the strong impression of his eyecatching February run at Southwell multiple times subsequently suggests to me he’s ready to win and overpriced here.

A good draw, not an overly hot pace expected and fast ground could be ideal for him over a mile in a very winnable race. He looks well-handicapped here off 54.

10pts win – Revoquable @ 5/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 11th June 2023

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It’s a wild game of ups and downs. Last week very much on a high. Days later things look bleaker. Another blank on Saturday. 14 on the bounce the red L.

Raasel ran well, good third place, but no chance with the winner. The ride on Fiftyshadesofred didn’t make any sense. I’ll give her another chance with a better rider on board. Winforglory stayed on strongly, but too late, and it seemed he didn’t have the early speed needed up in class.

Looking back over the last week, many ran well enough, still, even got placed. I’m quite satisfied with the selections, to the most part. There’s probably two I’d like to have back. Otherwise, happy enough. The upswing will come…. hopefully sooner, rather than later.

Ay always on a day after a huge Grade 1 in South Africa, a quick note on the big race there: Charles Dickens got his redemption. He beat the older horses for the first time. And he did it pretty easily

The 3-year-old superstar colt lost his unbeaten record in the King’s Plate back in January when he was bravely taking on the best older milers in the country. He was ran down late by Al Muthana for second place.

Not so this time. Al Muthana, who was here again, and won the Gold Challenge in excellent style twelve month ago, came with a late charge once again, but it was game over by then.

The rides may have made a difference, some argued. Al Muthana had to come around wide. Charles Dickens got a dream run through on the inside. True. and yet, that’s how Al Muthana has to be ridden. He didn’t have enough late speed this time to ran home a stronger Charles Dickens.

It’s clear now that Charles Dickens is a miler. He still shows signs of early keenness. He’s still raw in the finish. He’ll never get 10 furlongs I reckon. That’s a problem if he wants to prove his greatness in his home country.

I hope, though, that connections consider a move for international races, as difficult an endevour this can be for South African horses. His options are ultimately limited at home, but he could be good enough – let’s find out – to take on the top-class milers of the world.

……….

2.35 Navan: 3yo+ Handicap, 5f

A highly competitive affair, one I would usually stay away from, especially in Ireland. But I’m somewhat desperate the give Lokada another chance as the ground is just perfect for the lightly raced filly.

Who knows how much longer the relatively dry and warm spell continues here, there comes a time decent ground is a thing of the past, and then Lokada doesn’t even need to go to post.

In saying that, the race evolves around Only Spoofing, who’s clearly been set up for this race, down to a mark of 80, he was well hidden lately and it’s clear today is “D-Day”.

No doubt on last years form he’s got a proper chance and will enjoy the going too. But he’s a 9-year-old, nonetheless. At given prices he can be opposed.

The others, like Harmony Rose, Curraheen Princess or Screen Siren and Tawazoon are real dangers on their best form. This is competitive.

Lokada has drifted out in the betting this morning. I’m not too worried about it and more delighted that she’s now a price to back.

Reportedly she needed a lot of time to learn and grow last year, but landed two 5f sprints at Dundalk in November in fine style, subsequently running with tons of credit from a wide draw at the same venue before a winter break.

She returned at Naas last month and ran a huge race in second place behind a seriously well-handicapped winner.

She was prominent on the far side, travelled strongly, possibly going best and ran home strongly up the hill for 2nd place on her side. She didn’t have a chance with winner on stands’ side, who was probably advantaged by racing on that side.

She achieved a 70 speed rating there and I was keen to back her next time at Tipperary to go one better. It was initially disappointing to see her finish a well beaten 4th only, but in hindsight it’s clear she bumped into a well-handicapped improver once again.

Also: the winner aside, she did much the best of those drawn wide and therefore ran a little bit better than the bare result would tell. Another excuse…. at some point there are none left and it is what it is.

Yet, I strongly feel her last two, perhaps taking the last Dundalk run into account as well, can be upgraded. The handicapper dropped her back to 71 (from 74), which is more than fair and gives her a huge opportunity.

As mentioned before, she ran to 70 at Naas, she also achieved a whopping 81 speed rating on the All-Weather last year. She has a low weight, possible the ideal #7 draw in this field, the track should suit and she’ll love the ground.

No excuses today? Hopefully not. Though, I become slightly concerned that since having written this piece and backed her, she continues to drift further in the betting. To a point soon, possibly, where the odds are utter nonsense. In those cases, as we all know Irish racing: if it doesn’t make sense there is a reason for it.

That’s one of the reasons I don’t bet Irish racing much. I find it even less trustworthy than low-class Britain. But here we are. I made the call, my money is down. Hopefully on a trier.

10pts win – Lokada @ 6/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 10th June 2023

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As I increase the volume there’s going to be blanks days nonetheless. Must say I was quietly confident Friday wouldn’t be one, though.

In the end what’s left is a second and a third place. Not good when you have five chances and four of those are expected to be close.

Cuban Breeze was the one who came closest… within half a lengths of victory. The rest, never looked like winning, truth told.

The one I’d like to have back is Belsito. I still like the horse and his chances in general, however the low draw diminished his chances right away and I should have seen it coming – or, at least take that more into account for the price. 9/2 was a silly price to take. A poor value selection.

……

1.15 Haydock: Listed Achilles Stakes, 5f

A strong field for a listed contest. Equilateral may get the perfect race from his draw and wit the likely pace scenario, though at prices I can’t leave Raasel unbacked.

It’s going to be interesting to see how the straight track rides, but the fact he could have a pace to chase on his side from the #1 draw as well for potentially an easy route out on the outside for a challenge is something possibly positive.

He can be clearly forgiven the recent Temple Stakes run, as it’s widely known how the draw played a major role in the outcome of that race. The same could happen here.

It’s a smaller field, there is a different pace scenario, on the other hand, and that may even things out.

Raasel left an unsatisfying Meydan adventure behind when he returned to more familiar shores with an excellent 4th place in the Palace House Stakes. he achieved a 98 speed rating there, the best anyone in this field ran this year so far.

Fast ground is no issue for him. As long as Haydock rides fairer than a few weeks ago he looks a huge price here.

10pts win – Raasel @ 11/2

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3.20 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Fiftyshadesofred looks seriously well-handicapped if he can put his best foot forward. Hee’s a tricky lad, yet he has ran two strong speed ratings in two of his last three races, both over 7 furlongs.

Last time at Ayr he overcame a sluggish start and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. He found plenty under pressure and was only beaten late by two rivals from off the pace.

Before that he didn’t stay a mile but two runs back ran seriously well at Chelmsford over 7 furlongs. That looks his trip, and the fact he ran to 65 and 64 speed ratings now the last two times over this trip, on two different surfaces, gives his form credibility.

It should be ideal that there’s a lot of pace to be expected here in this race. He has a good draw to follow it, as long as she starts well. That should help him to settle.

William Pyle is a competent 7lb claimer. This weight allowance can only help; on the other hand he’s a tricky ride. So some risks are attached.

10pts win – Fiftyshadesofred @ 9/2

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8.00 Chepstow: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Winforglory is up in class here but should still be well capable of winning in this grade, especially over 7 furlongs on fast ground. The hood is back on, which hopefully helps him to settle better, as he can be quite keen.

Even though he won over a mile on the sand, I’m not sure he would get a truly run race on turf, especially a demanding course like Chepstow. Hence this 7 furlongs test could be ideal.

The gelding was catching the eye with his last two runs -first at Chelmsford, his second run off a 207 day break, when a bit unfortunate being a clear run denied in the home straight. Perhaps even more so when last seen at Lingfield:

That day he tracked the hot early pace but he was seriously keen with the hood off, did way too much too soon. I was impressed how he was still able to kick on and challenge for the win, less than two lengths beaten in 3rd eventually.

A strong 75 speed rating gives the performance merit. He looks clearly capable to win off his current mark and should be some pounds better. The jockey booking is a risk, though. This 7lb claimer just doesn’t win races and usually rides horses to lose.

10pts win – Winforglory @ 4/1

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One more I’m interested in but not any price able to get tonight, waiting for what the market says tomorrow and then going to decide….

Betting

Friday Selections: 9th June 2023

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3.10 Thirsk: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Belsito makes a lot of appeal as he moves up in trip again. Over the minimum trip he seemed to be taken off his feet at crucial stages of races, but he always showed great attitude in the final stages of his last two runs especially, while also showing solid early speed at the same time.

That says, on his seasonal reappearance at Musselburgh he fell out of the gate, before he overcame that awkward start quickly, moved forward rapidly to lead after the first furlong even. He did way too much to get there and ran really well in those circumstances overall.

He followed up next time at Redcar when he set a strong pace and fought gamely to finish third eventually.

He’s a full-brother to a Group 3 winning miler, so going up to 6 furlongs should be a positive.

He tried it twice early in his career, without success, but he had valid excuses on those days, I think.

10pts win – Belsito @ 9/2

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4.40 Thirsk: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Stalingrad is cherry ripe I feel, yet on fast ground I’m not sure I want to trust this 22 race maiden here as the favourite in the betting.

Trust is needed to back Dream Together as well after a recent breathing issue and wind op.

He certainly looked amiss after a weak finish when last seen at Haydock, after he actually travelled quite well on stands’ side there for a long time, which was potentially not ideal being high drawn in this race, as he was racing away from where the pace developed.

He travelled strongly to 2f out before his effort petered out and we now know why that is. If the recent operation has rectified any issues he’ll be a huge chance.

He could easily get a perfect position closer to the stands’ rail and dominate the race from there in a field where not to many want to move forward.

He’s another 2lb down and well-handicapped now based on the fact that he ran pretty well most of the time in recent weeks. Also he achieved speed ratings last season that if he can run somewhere close to those here today – now that he’s hopefully healthy again – makes him a stand out horse from a handicapping perspective.

10pts win – Dream Together @ 5/1

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7.00 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Yellow Lion was a serious eyecatcher at Newmarket when last seen and looks the one to beat if he can run to the same level of form.

He drops in class, but perhaps even more importantly he drops in trip. He didn’t seem to stay a mile at Newmarket. However, he travelled sweetly for a very long time, in a manner of a talented horse. He did so without cover on the outside of the field as well.

The colt showed good early pace and fine cruising speed before he dropped out quickly from 1.5f out and doing so without having an ideal race and against solid opposition.

That was his handicap debut, he’s lost 2lb off his opening mark in the meantime, so has been given a real opportunity by the handicapper.

The way he travelled gives the impression that he may enjoy proper fast ground. I could envision that he may even would enjoy the drop to 6f, but 7f is certainly worth a go here.

10pts win – Yellow Lion @ 4/1

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7.20 Haydock: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Cuban Breeze ran a lovely race earlier this week at Wolverhampton when 2nd behind one who was potentially well-handicapped on old form, and who got the run of the race from the front.

This here is easier. A fillies’ 0-80; Cuban Breeze is clearly in excellent form as evidence of her last two runs. Wolverhampton was a strong performance, so was her Windsor run prior.

She made too much there from the front in deep ground conditions but confirmed some of the positive signs she showed in most of her more recent runs.

She’s now 4lb lower than her last winning mark, which cam off 85 over 6f on fast ground last August.

The fact that visually she made good impressions in recent weeks but also that she ran to a 79 speed rating at Kempton at the end of April points to the suggestion that she’s in strong form, ready to win.

10pts win – Cuban Breeze @ 4/1

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7.55 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Batchelor Boy could be seriously overpriced in this field where many have questions not answer, not least on the handicapping front.

The gelding showed signs of form the last two runs, since coming back from a break. He bumped into a well-handicapped one on his seasonal reappearance and ran a tremendous race from the front the last time at Brighton over 7 furlongs.

He flew down the first half of the race, was over a full second faster to the 3f marker than the eventual winner. He gradually tired but was game to the line.

The drop to 6f is sure to suit, so does the fast ground. Haydock as a more conventional track is intriguing, as most of his racing has been done at Brighton.

It’s a concern that he hasn’t run a significant speed rating in over two years, but I give him the benefit of the doubt given that most recent strong performance have suggested he’s in the same form as when winning races in the last two years.

First time visor looks intriguing, too. He won in first-time blinkers in the past.

10pts win – Batchelor Boy @ 20/1