It’s raining cats and dogs here in Dublin this morning which will ensure that the quick ground is going to diminish until the race tonight at Leopardstown. That could destroy the chances for some in this field. Most notably Panama Hat, who is a dubious stayer in my book and has shown his best form on quick ground.
Key form for this race is the Group 3 Vintage Crop Stakes from last month. Exciting stayer Forgotten Rules won the race, with promising Answered in second. More interesting is what happened behind. Race fit Sir Ector finished third, which makes him one of the likelier types today. Not far behind in fourth and fifth that day were Panama Head and Kingfisher. The former one didn’t seem to stay the trip, though.
Kingfisher in contrast seems to get the trip well. He wasn’t knocked over on his seasonal reappearance but made good progress late to pick up Panama Head eventually. He appears to have strengthen up over the winter and a campaign in all the big staying races has been mapped out for him.
He was once a highly promising colt thanks to a runner-up effort in the Irish Derby behind Australia. Deployed as pace maker in most starts last year, he gets now the chance to race for himself. On pedigree he has good credentials to develop into a fine stayer.
On balance, Kingfisher is the best horse in this race. He drops in class should improve from his recent run. If fully wound up one would expect him to beat the rivals he ran close to at Navan. A hood is fitted for the first time too may help him too. In the context of the race I believe he’s a big price.
The general perception is that the Oaks are a better race than the Derby this year. And yes, there’s certainly some merit to this. The Oaks field looks absolute delicious -and that’s not only because the brilliant 1000 Guineas winner Legatissimo standing her ground over the much longer Oaks trip. No, it’s the strengths in depth that really intrigues me.
Of course the Wachman filly couldn’t have been more impressive at Newmarket. The drop in trip to 1m didn’t seem to suit beforehand, but it worked absolutely in her favour given the way the race panned out. Racing off the frenetic pace, once she started her big move, she picked them all up one by one, filly after filly, until she was left alone in front.
No doubt, she is a very strong favourite to land the Guineas & Oaks double. The longer trip is rather certain to suit than not, the ground won’t be an issue and she looks a well balanced filly who’s likely to handle Epsom’s undulations.
If you want to find question marks than it has to be the draw. Legatissimo has to start from stall 1 – which would be in any other sport the pole position – but not at Epsom where the record in the Oaks for fillies drawn in one is disastrous. Lucky she is, though, as she has Ryan Moore in the saddle….. there’s some people thinking he’s the best jockey in the world. He may be able to get her out of this dilemma.
Honestly, after making this case for her, I find it hard to oppose her. But I have to. At 3/1 or even shorter I can hardly see any value in the price. It’s a competitive field with strong opposition. Legatissimo is not invincible.
Main danger could be Stoute’s Crystal Zvezda. Lightly raced, she seems to have tons of potential. Her eye-catching success in a Newbury listed race on her seasonal reappearance promises allot. However Epsom is a completely different track compared to what she has seen at flat Newbury. Will this inexperienced filly handle the tough assignment which the Oaks will undoubtedly provide? Maybe. I could be tempted at 4/1, but also believe better value can be found in this field.
Many have been impressed by Jack Naylor’s performance in the Irish 1000 Guineas. So have I. She stayed on from an unfavourable position, trailing the field for most parts of the race, and finished an encouraging fourth in the end. Jack Naylor has a good chance to stay the Oaks trip, albeit it’s a dramatic step up from a mile to 1m 4f. And might the bounce factor kick in? Only 12 days after having a tough race in the Guineas she’s here at Epsom.
Aiden O’Brien is represented with three fillies. Qualify is likely to be deployed as a pacer maker – that’s my best guess. Diamondsandrubies was a very good winner of the Cheshire Oaks. Soft ground may be key to her, so the drying ground seems against her. She also needs to take another massive step forward to win.
Probably the best of the O’Brien trio is Together Forever. A Group 1 winner as a juvenile, after what her trainer said she might be more a Guineas type than one for the Oaks as she shows more speed than expected. Well, here she is in the Oaks, on the back of a very encouraging runner-up effort in the Musidora Stakes over 1m 2f.
The winner had the run of the race from the front that day and Together Forever – albeit making eye-catching progress from four to two furlongs out – appeared to be flat footed once the pace setting filly kicked on. But she kept fighting and stayed on strongly. She almost caught the eventual winner on the line.
On pedigree Together Forever looks certain to stay the Oaks trip, and not only that, she may easily improve for it. I would expect her to come on from her comeback run too. If she handles Epsom, she must rate a very big runner.
Her Musidora form is tied to Star Of Seville, who won the race. A smart filly in her own right, but 10f looks to be her optimum, if not even the limit of her stamina.
That should not be the case for Cummani’s Lady Of Dubai. She impressed at Goodwood in a Listed event and has a very fair chance to get the Oaks trip. Frankie Dettori’s mount Jazzi Top was a good Listed winner last month as well, though stamina is a bit more of a question mark for her.
It is very hard to see either Al Naamah or Bellajeu good enough to land a blow in the Oaks.
Verdict: Legatissimo is likely to be found on any short-list, for obvious reasons – but as mentioned before, she is not a price I’m particularly fond of. Same applies to Crystal Zvezda. I like her and look forward to see her running, but she not a price for me.
Lady Of Dubai is a filly I believe can run a big race and no doubt she is an interesting price. But most intriguing individual is Together Forever. Potentially she has so many things in her favour here. It’s likely that she can improve for her seasonal debut as well as the step up in trip. She’s already a Group 1 winner, so clearly has the class, and has a good draw, which isn’t quite without importance.
Monday Night, the first of June – It’s windy, chilly and lashing down – Summer seems far away. But if you’re a racing fan this doesn’t matter to you. You’re going racing because you love the sport and if the opportunity arises to pay a visit to a new track you do it.
I am a racing fan and off I went to Berlin-Hoppegarten earlier this week, braving nature. It was supposed to be the highlight of my time in Germany’s massive capital, where parts of my family live. Racing’s always on my mind, though, so to miss the intended visit of Berlin’s only racecourse for thoroughbreds (there are also two tracks for harness racing) was out of question. Regardless of how bad the weather might be.
Hoppegarten racecourse is conveniently situated in the suburbs of Berlin, easily accessible with public transport. Leaving the hustle and bustle of the booming city behind, it can be a welcome change of scenery: Hoppegarten is a green oasis, full of charm and character, with a beautiful old wooden grand stand.
Once you arrive in Hoppegarten you’re going to be greeted by a relaxed atmosphere, while a delicious smell is waving through the air – a mix of freshly cut turf and charcoal-grilled Bratwurst!
No, it wasn’t exactly top class racing on offer that night – eight races, some more or less decent handicaps… no signs of glamour at all. But hey, this is Hoppegarten, not Royal Ascot!
Nonetheless a loyal crowd gathered around the parade ring for the first race – only a class 4 Handicap – to watch in awe the runners preparing. In desperate conditions the eventual winner Niron came flying down the stretch to win in style under a well timed ride from René Piechulek. After their heroics, horse and jockey paraded in front of the stands bathing in the rain but more importantly a warm applause from the locals.
And so it went on, a wet night, eight races, most of them producing some exciting finishes. There was loads of cheering and clapping, horses parading, owners, trainers and jockey joyful as if they’d won the Derby! It was a unique, honest and friendly atmosphere. As a racing fan I loved every minute of it. A good performance is a good performance, and so is a good ride, regardless of the class of the race.
Grassroots-sport…. racing in its purest form – it can be as beautiful and exciting as the colourful Derby Meeting at Epsom Racecourse – which is sure to excite us this weekend!
What you certainly wouldn’t experience at Epsom, though: a race held in almost complete darkness. So it happened in the final race on the night. A false start didn’t help the matter, nor the emerging fog. So it was more listening to the enthusiastic track commentator than seeing it, but the four year old filly Ishasha scooted clear to win the finale – and earned me a few quid – my only winner on the night!
Yes, Berlin-Hoppegarten left a lasting impression on me. I really loved it, despite the rain – and in all seriousness, it was allot of rain! Though the sun looked through the dark clouds towards the end, bathing the course in some wonderful golden light for at least a couple of minutes…. it was very special. So I can’t praise Hoppegarten highly enough. A real gem. If you’re ever in Berlin, don’t miss it!
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Complete Hoppegarten Photo Gallery
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All Photos Credit: Florian Christoph
This is a competitive sprint Handicap where cases can be made aplenty. Top weight My Good Brother may struggle of a mark off 96 on ground which is much softer than ideal. 93 rated Zalty could well have a big say, though, if he is race fit and can handle the drop to the minimum trip. His close runner-up effort in a tough Premier Handicap over 6f at the Curragh when last seen almost seven month ago gives him a prime chance.
Ger Lyons’ Joe Eile took advantage off a slipping mark last month when landing a sprint Handicap at Navan. Seven pounds up for this success makes life tougher now. In Salutem was an eye-catching second that day and followed up with another strong performance at the Curragh when not having the run of the race. He probably need things to fall right for him to win off his current mark but is an obvious contender nonetheless.
Prince Connoisseur was progressive last season and may have still more to offer. Improvement has to come if he wants to compete in this race. Back from a seasonal break, fitness is a question mark. Lady Mega only got a run late at Navan last month and has form in her book suggesting she has a prime chance today with additional five pound claim from her jockey. Probably not quite ideal is the softish ground, though.
I’m most interested in Kimbay – again. I was already intrigued by her when she kicked off her new campaign last month. Then in a competitive 6f Handicap, she was up with the pace, travelled strongly and just got tired in the closing stages. She is expected to come on for the run and the drop to 5f should definitely suit – she is still unbeaten over this trip.
Still not too many miles on the clock for a five year old, Kimbay can race off a featherweight here once again and judged on her steady progress last year, she may be well handicapped, as she was dropped a pound since her last run. She won four races and been only beaten by a head in the other two starts in 2014 – so there is every chance for more to come. A career best is required today, though, as she is up by 6lb for last success at Dundalk in December when she won a very competitive 5f sprint – this form worked out very well.
Fair little Handicap with Richard Hannon’s Thahab as the clear favourite. There are good reasons why this lightly raced Dubawi colt is as short as he is. Thahab is the only one with course form in this field – He won a maiden here earlier this year in taking style, albeit against rather poor opposition. He wasn’t disgraced in two subsequent hot sprint Handicaps, but this here is easier today and the step up to 6f will certainly suit.
The likeliest danger is going to be the filly Quite Smart. She has the advantage of bottom weight and is going to make her Handicap debut. She won a 7f Redcar maiden well enough from the front a fortnight ago, despite hanging badly in the closing stages. The drop to 6f must not be an inconvenience today as it should be a fast and furious race with emphasis on stamina in the closing stages.
Mambo Paradise was a fair Wolverhampton maiden winner in April. One could make excuses for her performance at York three weeks ago when she meat in-running trouble on multiple occasions. She deserves another chance but has still to prove that she is up to her current mark. She might be a better prospect than Elis Eliz long term, who was a close runner-up at Wolverhampton behind her but was unable to be competitive off a revised mark subsequently.
Top weight Teruntum Star won a good Class 2 Handicap as a juvenile, though failed to fire on his seasonal reappearance. He may improve for the run but has to overcome a big mark. Mimy Ridge has a second place over CD to his name but looks quite exposed. He’s likely to struggle here, while Frostman was a winner of a poor Bath maiden recently and has to improve a good bit.
Verdict: Favourite Thahab has found a good opportunity to score, but isn’t a price to invest in. A better choice could be the scopey filly Quite Smart. She is a fine looking individual and got off the mark a fortnight ago. With more experience she is supposed to improve. Going into this race with light weight, with an additional 3lb claim by talented Cam Hardie, she should be very dangerous as long as she takes to the surface, which is the key question mark.
It’s massively exciting to see see Consort finally making his long awaited debut as a three year old. He missed the Guineas, though, and that for a reason. It’ll be interesting to see if he is fully wound up tomorrow as bigger targets may be on the agenda. If this is only a prep race, then others must have a chance to land the spoils.
There are Additional question marks whether Consort has trained on and is able to fulfil the promise. It’s important to keep in mind that so far he is only a maiden winner, albeit an impressive one.
Not quite the same – but to an extend at least – the same applies to Johnny Barnes as well, who makes his belated seasonal reappearance. He was a fine runner-up in a soft ground French Group 1 towards the end of last year. Race fitness and quick ground are obvious question marks.
The Makfi colt Ijmaaly was as impressive a debut winner as you will ever find. Questionable what he beat, but the way he did it was simply breathtaking. Eased down half a furlong out and he still won it by 12 lengths. This here represents a dramatic step up in trip and he is unproven on quick ground. But he’s clearly an exciting prospect.
Much more experienced is stable mate Emirates Skycargo. He has gradually improved and argubly his strongest performance to date came on the 2000 Guineas card at Newmarket in a good Class 2 Handicap when he was extremely unlucky to finish only third in a photo finish. He’d have won with a clear run despite giving loads of weight away to smart rivals.
Proven over trip and ground, he set the standard in this race in my mind. He looks capable of stepping up to Listed level and seems a rather big price in my eyes.
Godolphin’s exciting Tryster is back on turf after an extremely prolific winter on the All-Weather where he landed the Winter Derby as well as the AW Middle-Distance Championships. Can he be as effective on the grass? We’ll find out soon. He’s to beat some very tough opposition, that’s assured.
Most notably Sir Michael Stoute’s Arab Spring. Progressive last year and successful on his return to the track last month, he took a Group 3 over 12f and is one who’s expected to have a big season ahead. Not sure if the drop in trip to 10f will suit, though. He seemed to need every inch of the 1m 4f trip in the John Porter Stakes.
John Gosden’s Eagle Top was a runway winner of the King Edward VII Stakes last year but subsequently wasn’t in the same mood in the King George. Lightly raced and talented, he remains with loads of potential, but again, the drop in trip seems not to suit. He has never races shorter than 11f in his career.
Western Hymn won the Gordon Richards Stakes over course and distance last month. He beat some really good horses and this form works out well. He may have had race fitness on his side that day but proved that he can cope with a faster than soft surface. He showed guts and class, and seems to have physically improved over the winter.
Tullius was a long way beaten in the very same race and the trip is a big question mark. Niceofyoutotellme shouldn’t be good enough in this class.
Verdict: It may turn out at the end of the season that others have progressed past Western Hymn, but he seems to have found an ideal opportunity to get another Stakes win on the boards here. With race fitness assured, he seems overpriced to my eyes, particularly given that he is a true mile and a quarter horse, which can’t be said about all his rivals.
Not much going on on the domestic front so lets head to South Africa for an intriguing Handicap on the Greyville Polytrack. Some really good horses are going to post there, most notably the top weight Blance Sheet, a 3 year old gelding who tried to take on the best in Graded company recently.
He’s not been disgraced but found it much easier when dropped into Handicap company the last time when landing a good MR98. He’s up in the mark and tries a new trip today – which he failed to stay in the past – so that is a negative for the short favourite.
Lightly raced Krambambuli took on much stronger the last two. He was a fair third in the Cape Derby, but couldn’t back it up. This is easier and he is likely to get the trip, but in truth he has only won a low-grade handicap to date.
De Kock’s Trip To Rio could be interesting if he stays the 1900m trip. He was second in a 1m Listed event on the poly last year but utterly disappointing when last seen in a MR92 Handicap. He could well improve, though definitely has to so as more is required here.
I’m quite interested in four year old Assegai. He is the only course and distance winner in the field and was impressive when landing a MR 90 Handicap over CD on his penultimate run. He wasn’t disgraced when fifth in a very hot Listed event subsequently, taking on seasoned top class graded hoses. He will find this today much easier. He had a little break since then but usually does very well as a fresh horse.
He has to be at his best in order to give weight away to the smart three year olds, though with conditions very much in his favour, might well be able to do so. Top jockey is booked today – at 10/1 he looks overpriced in this field.
Normally this type of race wouldn’t be my cup of coffee. Too much guesswork required who is in it to win and who uses it as a public gallop. This Maiden Handicap is pretty poor, it’s simply the nature of the race. Some lightly raced individuals with low opening marks take dramatic step ups in trip and may well improve for it. Dew Pond is one who jumps out in that regard.
But it is the horse at the head of the weights who clearly is the most intriguing runner. The Cashel Man hasn’t shown allot as a juvenile in Maidens last year. But gelded over the winter, which often works wonders for High Chaparral’s and particularly for trainer David Simcock, he may leave those forms behind, now going handicapping for the first time.
Not only that, but The Cashel Man also takes a dramatic step up in trip, which on pedigree should suit very well and see him improving a good deal. He is a full-brother to decent Handicapper Thunder Pass, who took a similar route last year and improved from maidens to handicaps when stepping up in trip.
An opening mark of 63 is stiff enough for what The Cashel Man has shown so far, but this poor race represents an ideal opportunity to get off the mark with conditions very much to suit him.
The Cashel Man @ 5/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
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8.00 Ballinrobe: Beginners Chase. 2m 1f
A rare trip to the jumps for me in the middle of the flat season. The reason is A Sizing Network. A lightly raced five year old who makes his chasing debut today. I have been waiting for this for a while, basically since he got off the mark in a maiden hurdle back in November. A Sizing Network was always going to be a chaser. He jumps big and bold and has the frame to be one.
It didn’t quite work out over hurdles for him, though he performed with credit in two of his three subsequent starts. He got beaten on the line in a handicap hurdle last month at Punchestown, when he made a big move maybe a bit too early and also seemed to idle in front after jumping the last. His only poor showing, leaving the debut out, came at Leopardstown over 2m 4f in soft conditions.
Two miles on good ground seems ideal and I imagine he can leave his hurdling form easily behind over fences. There should be plenty of improvement to come from this fresh, young individual. He has probably a bit to too find with the other market principles on pure form and ratings, but should be easily capable of doing so.
On the verge of the Irish 2000 Guineas Aiden O’Brien seemed to become overwhelmed by his emotions. He ennobled Gleneagles, hailing him as “the best miler we have ever had”. That is some achievement in its own right, especially given the amount of classy horses passing through his hands year in year out.
This statement came just minutes after Gleneagles completed the 2000 Guineas double. He had to fight hard for it and it was a much closer finish than at Newmarket, where absolutely everything went to plan. This time, Gleneagles, boxed in on the rails, had to show an awful lot of class to win. He did exactly that.
But does it make him the best ever? Well, who am I to object his handlers experienced opinion. He, who has seen it all! Though, one could get the feeling that Aiden uses the term “best ever” a bit too loosely these days. Anyway, Gleneagles is certainly a very good colt. A true miler. A world-class miler.
Pearl Secret Lands A Big One
Sprint races can sometimes be a bit like lotto: Draw a number or throw a pin and wherever it lands that’s the horse to win. Admittedly, now I’m cynical. Yet there is some truth in it! These big sprint races are so much down to day form, it doesn’t always honour the actual form book. Run the same race ten times and you’ll almost certainly get ten different results.
So happened in the Temple Stakes at Haydock on Saturday. Pearl Secret was a slightly surprising winner of the Group 2 sprint. Yes, he was runner-up in the very same race last year, but back then on bottomless ground and before Saturday he only managed to win at Listed- or Conditions Stakes level. Now he has “a big one” on his CV!
Pearl Secret was followed home by Jack Dexter, who hasn’t won since November 2013, and 40/1 shot Wind Fire. Favourite Hot Streak finished sixth, but in truth never landed a blow. So much about the Lotto theory…
Jim Bolger The Magician
Round Two
The County Kilkenny handler had it spot on: he knew his main contender for the 1000 Guineas wasn’t a miler. So he employed two pace makers, to ensure there would be no dawdling around. The good, consistent pace helped Pleascach in a way to relax but also to offset her lack of tactical speed and instead have a race with emphasize on stamina. It worked to perfection.
Pleascach took up the lead from two furlongs out and stayed strongly to line, fending off all challengers, including the one of red hot favourite Found. The stiff uphill finish at the Curragh clearly suited her cause too.
The next Jim Bolger star is already lined up. His Round Two won the Listed Marble Hill Stakes in comprehensive style at the Curragh on Saturday, overcoming question marks about his speed over the minimum trip as well as a wider than ideal draw. The Teofilo son can only get better with time and distance. He seems the ideal favourite for the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot next month.
Found Is No World-Beater
Hot Irish 1000 Guineas Favourite Found wasn’t able to land the odds in Sunday’s big race and instead had to settle for second. She didn’t get the clearest of runs as she was in a pocket over 2f out. The eventual winner, Bolger’s Pleascach, got first run and fend off Found’s charge gamely in the closing stages.
In the aftermath not everyone thought the best horse won – and I tend to agree to an extend – yes, Found was slightly unlucky, but that says she got out into the clear at the two furlong marker and had all the time in the world to make up the ground. She didn’t quicken rapidly enough, though, needed almost a full furlong to hit top gear. She clearly is no world-beater. At least not over the mile trip.
Compare her run to the one of Gleneagles in the 2000 Guineas – he had even less time to finish off his race once in the clear. But he did it in the manner of a true mile champion. He found a way to win, quickened when it mattered.
Nonetheless, Found’s Guineas performance is encouraging. She’ll be better over further. It may turn out that 1m 2f is her optimum, but the Oaks distance is very much possible and she now goes to Epsom as one of the favourites.
Endless Drama A Chaser In The Making
Endless Drama
Just kidding. But you’ll laugh, there was more than one person suggesting the idea of giving him a spin over the big fences. And you can see why. He is a very big boy, indeed! I was slightly overwhelmed when this huge thing passed me in the parade ring for the first time.
I mean, there you have all these good looking three year olds walking around, very much looking like three year olds should look like. And then suddenly you have this monster of a horse walking towards you – is this still the Curragh or already Aintree? Guineas or Grand National Day?
In my 2000 Guineas preview I voiced slight disappointment to see Endless Drama running over 1m yet again. He didn’t look like staying thus far in two previous attempts over 6f+. On pedigree he seems a rather dubious stayer too. Add all the early speed he usually shows and you could easily come to the conclusion that he is actually a sprinter.
On Saturday, though, different tactics and better ground seemed to work wonders. He finished the Guineas well enough to suggest he can be a good miler. A close second behind Gleneagles is surly a very strong piece of form. Yet, I’d love to see him over six furlongs. I think he could be a force over that sort of trip.
Al Kazeem’s Second Spring
It’s never been straightforward for him. Al Kazeem lost almost his entire Classic season, but came back stronger than ever the following season, when he beat Camelot in the 2013 Tattersalls Gold Cup. That’s now exactly two years ago. He went on to land the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and Coral Eclipse the same year and was subsequently retired to stud as potentially hot property for all the lovely fillies in the world.
Didn’t work out in the breeding shed. He was soon back in training and after a couple of respectable efforts he finally muscled his way to another heroic Group 1 victory – Sunday at the Curragh, beating some serious opposition in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.
He’s the kind of horse you won’t find enough of in flat racing. But these classy veterans are what the sport is craving for. Fans want to follow horses over more than one or two season. What is part and parcel in jump racing, is much more difficult at the top end of the game on the flat. So it’s great to see Al Kazeem, a seven year old now, as good and happy as ever!
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