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Betting

Thursday Selections: 16th May 2024

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3.45 York: Group 2 Dante Stakes, 1m 2.5f

Charlie Appleby is hitting some form of late as his big guns fire, so that adds weight to the fact that Ancient Wisdom has been backed to likely go off a short enough price in a hot Dante Stakes this afternoon.

We haven’t seen the impressive winner of the Futurity Stakes this year yet, that means some questions have to be asked about his fitness. But of course, if he could transfer his juvenile form to this year, he’d be an exciting horse to follow.

Ancient Wisdom’s Autumn Stakes win was the best any of seven going to post today had achieved on speed ratings. Saying that, different ground, and different trip today – let’s see whether he can run to that level of form today. I’m prepared, as so often, to oppose a short priced favourite.

Caviar Hights looks also a highly promising colt, and rates a pretty fair price, indeed. He achieved a superb 104 speed rating in the Listed Newmarket Stakes a fortnight ago.

Given he seemed to have no issues with the trip or the ground, he’s a prime chance today, if he could repeat that performance, which screamed Group 1 class.

Today is a tougher contest, though. And a different track. Those are the only two – albeit small – question marks I’d have.

Once again, though, I’ll have to go with God’s Window today. I’m prepared to forgive his most recent desperately disappointing showing at Chester.

He completely missed the break and it was basically race over there and then. God’s Window has a bit of history in that regard. That’s a clear and obvious question mark.

On the other hand, I remain convinced that’s a colt with serious talent. And the Gosden’s must think so too, otherwise they wouldn’d send him here after the recent disappointment.

To be honest, I can practically copy and paste my thoughts from prior to the Dee Stakes today – they apply 100% once more: the question about the ground has to be brought up again: does he need juice in the ground to be seen to best effect?

What speaks against that notion: his half-sister as well as his dam all won and did well on fast ground, in fact. His action doesn’t imply to my untrained eye that’s he “soft ground slogger”.

However, God’s Widow will absolutely love the step up in trip after having raced over about a mile in all his three career runs prior to Chester.

He achieved a fine 77 speed rating on debut, and showed a likable turn of foot that day at Doncaster despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.

Subsequently deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes, where he missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Despite being poorly positioned the colt finished in impressive style for third place.

I was delighted with his seasonal reappearance at Nottingham last month. He didn’t beat much, and this was more like a public racecourse gallop for this son of Dubawi.

The positives were clear and obvious, though: he kicked clear easily, posting good sections in soft ground, without having been properly asked. There must be a huge engine under the hood.

The dam was an Oaks Trial winner. The dam sire a King George winner. Dad is no one less than Dubawi. The step up to the 1m 2.5f trip should suit. Hopefully today he doesn’t lose the race at the start, so we get a proper answer to the question how good God’s Window really is.

10pts win – God’s Window @ 15/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 15th May 2024

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3.45 York: Group 3 Musidora Stakes, 1m 2.5f

This doesn’t look an overly deep renewal of the Musidora. Perhaps we said the same last year, when Soul Sister romped home? That was quite the day to celebrate for me… good old days.

Today I’m yet again keen on finding a way to get the favourite beat. For all that it doesn’t appear to be an easy task: Friendly Soul clearly is a filly with an abundance of talent. This daughter of Kingman slaughtered her rivals in the Pretty Polly Stakes ten days ago and achieved an excellent 98 speed rating that day as well.

Can she cope with the step up in trip today? The pedigree gives her every opportunity, though, she showed plenty of pace and may have to do the ‘donkey work’ today once again. On the other hand, Gosden’s have a tremendous record in this race.

Given we only have seen her twice so far, it’s hard to know where her ceiling is. The same can be said for a couple of other fillies in this field, at this stage of the season, and I’m always prepared to take on an odds-on shot, especially if there’s a meaningful alternative.

I’m especially intrigued by Mayfair stepping up in trip. I’m keeping an eye on the daughter of Justify since her eyecatching debut at Galway last August.

That was a pretty strong maiden with four subsequent winners, including recent Salsabil Stakes runner-up Purple Lilly. Mayfair did plenty wrong that day, and has continued to appear learning on the job ever since.

Her seasonal reappearance at the Curragh caught my attention once again. She was up with the pace, always in the headwind without cover, and that performance warranted an upgrade, given the winner was well covered throughout.

The form isn’t anything to shout about, and it was disappointing to see Mayfair getting beaten at Dundalk the next time, albeit by a potentially smart filly in Star Magnolia.

Mayfair is a full-sister of 104 rated Unless, a progressive 3-year-old last season, who improved with experience and who won a Listed race over 10 furlongs, plus was a fine runner-up in the Group 3 Royal Whip next time.

Unless did her best work on decent ground, and you would hope Mayfair can improve for better ground today as well. So far she raced only on heavy or on the sand. Showers are rolling on through Wednesday at York but shouldn’t turn the ground soft.

To my untrained eye Mayfair never looked like a filly with the speed and gears for 7 furlongs. It’s a gamble to move up right away to the Musidora trip, but it’s probably now or never for her to prove that she’s at least as good as her sister.

She should certainly improve for the recent racing experience, should strip fit, should enjoy the ground, the new trip looks a possibility on pedigree, and the race, if you’re prepared to take on the favourite, wide open.

10pts win – Mayfair @ 8/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 25th June 2023

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That was Royal Ascot. A frantic week. I definitely got sucked into more than in preceding years, for better or for worse.

Two big winners clearly helped. Especially as I continue to go through a pretty rotten spell with the ‘bread and butter’ stuff.

Hence it’s positive to see many Ascot selections outran their often big odds. beside the winners Waipiro (12/1) and Royal Champion (33/1), there were plenty of placed ones at big odds (Inquisitively 3rd @ 20/1, Bucanero Forte 3rd @ 19/1, Remarquee 2nd at 33/1).

No good for the P/L as win only backer, but good for the morale. And that’s certainly needed to keep the morale up as Saturday was another hugely disappointing blank, as my handicappers found ways to get beat.

Essme and Huddle Up got close, Shine’s Ambition looked with less than a furlong he may have it. Wasn’t to be. And it weighs on my mind. I know I got way too aggressive this month.

Perhaps it was simply the wrong time for it. Or it was mostly bad luck…. or perhaps lack of good judgement. That’s for another day to determine.

……..

6.45 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

This appears to be a class 3 0-90 in the name only. It’s a big field, but not a competitive race. The pace scenario and draw takes more than half the the field out in addition.

I wouldn’t be too sure whether Rathbone could truly deliver in a proper class 3 Handicap these days, but he showed clear signs of a revival the last two times and has fallen to a tasty mark.

He’s one you’d hope can go forward from a solid #6 draw – this year he has shown better early gate speed, so I’m hoping he’ll do the same today.

Eight days ago his run at York in a competitive Handicap was certainly a highly encouraging performance.

Rathbone showed excellent early speed, was quick through the first four furlongs before gradually tiering. He was probably advantaged by riding on the far side, but still did very well to stay in front for long, before going backwards from 1 furlong out.

The preceding 3rd place effort at Doncaster was also a strong effort as he was significantly quicker through the first four furlongs than the winner and runner-up.

Both forms stand up and look strong. He lost another couple of pounds, down to 79 – he won off 90 and ran to a 86 speed rating last summer still. Most likely he’s not quite as good these days but with conditions to suit and a track and pace scenario putting him possibly at an advantage today he’s on a dangerous mark.

10pts win – Rathbone @ 10/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 16th June 2023

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19 and counting… worst losing run in a while. Griggy a big drifter on the day, never spotted in the race. Making a habit of it right now. On to tomorrow…

……

6.05 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Barrier is one of the Handicappers to follow and I feel this looks an ideal Handicap debut for the filly. Judge her on a poor seasonal reappearance at your peril, dare I say…. this is a completely different proposition than what she encountered at Newmarket.

She dropped out rapidly and seriously badly from 4f out, but you could also argue until then she ran quite well, given she missed the break badly. actually.

That was tough opener, against strong opposition to the most part. It served the purpose to qualify for Handicaps, though. She can start off a 67 mark, which could be significantly underestimating her.

The drop to 10 furlongs doesn’t worry me too much, although she may turn out to be better over further. The opening mark is simply so low, I find it hard to believe, especially as she showed promise as a juvenile, on her final start in 2022 at Ascot, where I felt her run warrants an upgrade.

New headgear may help her to get her race off a bit sharper. She missed the break in all her starts, so that’s a concern. The fast ground is somewhat of an unknown, too, given it’s hard to take anything away from that lto run.

Nonetheless, I can’t leave her unbacked at this price, even though I would hope there is some support in the market later. It could also mean I’ve got it spectacularly wrong in my assessment of this filly.

10pts win – Barrier @ 20/1

………….

4.25 Sandown: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Absolutely no doubt Bell Song is well-handicapped off 72 in her second run in Handicap company. She showed plenty in each of her three starts this year, including on Handicap debut last week, but has been given a real opportunity by the handicapper, who couldn’t have been any fairer.

Last week at Chelmsford she had the widest draw to overcome., which was a major disadvantage. She was caught wide and didn’t find cover for the first half of the race.

As a consequence she moved forward, used up loads of energy, to find a suitable position, eventually. It was impressive how she was able to kick on approaching the home straight and also the way she stayed well to the line despite all the trouble.

She was only beaten by one ridden with more restraint from a low draw. How good the form is remains to be seen, but the filly couldn’t have done much more to catch the eye. She has been left, surprisingly, on a 72 mark.

Which in itself looks on the low side, given her excellent seasonal reappearance at Southwell that looks quite strong form, where she didn’t get a clear run, otherwise she would have finished closer.

She may need to move up to a mile to be seen to best effect, but 7 furlongs seem fine for now. The pace looks somewhat muddling in this race. That’s a good and a bad thing.

One hand it means she should have no issue overcoming the #8 draw and follow the lead of likely front-runner Taritino drawn right beside her. She should be in an ideal position if all goes well. But she can be a bit keen as well, and may prefer a decent pace to aim at. There’s a risk.

Saying that, the risks are possibly outweighed simply by the fact that the filly could have way too much in hand in this field, I believe, on what is her turf debut, with fast ground probably to suit, given the pedigree. I don’t get this price, at all.

10pts win – Bell Song @ 11/1

………

3.35 York: Listed Ganton Stakes, 1m

This race and pace scenario screams for an upset. Shining Blue is expected to go off as favourite. That’s fair. He won really well in Handicap company when last seen over 7 furlongs and does stay a mile.

On the other hand, the shorter trip is probably his optimum. His best speed rating came in January at Meydan over 7f. Purely judged on that he’s the one to beat.

A mile, fast ground, muddling pace, is a somewhat different scenario, and outside Meydan his form isn’t all that impressive. Therefore, he could be more vulnerable than the short price suggests.

El Drama is the pick on career-best speed ratings. But he may like it a bit longer than a mile and he hasn’t ran any faster than speed ratings in the 70s in over two years. That’s normally not good enough for this level. But then, this isn’t an overly strong race, either.

Chichester should find this easier than the last time and ran well on the All-Weather before. Though, he might be outpaced if this turns into a sprint for home and he could be poorly positioned in rear.

Longshot Silver Screen can’t be fancied, however Azano has all the right attributes to outrun his price here.

He’s only rated 92, and has a lot to find on Official Ratings and normally wouldn’t be too likely to land a blow outside Handicap company. Yet, this race may fall into his lap.

On the plus side, he showed fine form in his last two runs this year. Last time at Sandown he did too much to get to the front from his wide draw when he made the donkey work for those from off the pace, basically.

His Newmarket run in May, though, was strong, and a repeat of that form could be good enough to win this Listed contest.

That day he made the most of the standing start when he quickly moved forward to lead, as he set a strong pace and had the field on the stretch from 3 furlongs out. He ran home well and even rallied in the final furlong, but was eventually beaten by a strong winner.

I do rate that performance, as it represented somewhat of a return to close of his best form. Hos best gives him a definite chance her. Especially over a mile on fast ground where he may find himself able to dominate.

Although the earlier prices of around 40s seem rapidly disappearing since having started writing this post, I think what’s on offer is still a huge price given the likely circumstances of this race, and I’d be pretty certain Azano will outrun these odds.

10pts win – Azano @19/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 19th May 2023

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Another winner on Thursday: Lord Rapscallion ran home strongly to win at a whopping 16/1 SP (26.5 BSP)!

Scratching my head why he went of this huge price because I felt he was a rather obviously well-handicapped horse in this field (saying it in hindsight is an easy as equally beautiful thing).

Obviously, the huge SP is totally meaningless for my personal P&L. Which is totally fine. 9/1 is a lovely price, and I can only evaluate the price on offer to me at the time of backing the horse.

Continuous ran a lovely race in the Dante. Money came right before the off. He was backed down to 6/1. Travelled strongly, made good progress and finished a good 3rd. More to come.

Friday looks ominous. It’s a rare occasion when I have four (most likely five – one to be added in the morning, couldn’t get matched what I wanted yet) bets on a single day. Especially two of those at odds below 3/1. It could be a brilliant day…. but it could be one that sees me hand some of that lovely profit right back.

………

4.55 Newbury: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Two eyecatchers run here, both unexposed: Cherryhawk possibly ran too well on handicap debut recently; although, there is more to come, especially on better ground and with race fitness now assured.

There’s plenty more unexposed form in this field, but even at skinny odds I think there is a better chance than the price suggests that Lady Rascal is better than her opening mark.

She’s one of my 3-year-old Handicappers to follow for the season and that hasn’t changed after her two runs this season. Those were qualifying runs and she was always expected to be better once she moves up in trip.

Whether 10 furlongs is quite long enough, given her full-brother stayed much further, remains to be seen. She has an entry for 1m 3.5f next week, so there is that option.

However, off 67 she could have too much in hand for this opposition over this trip. I liked her seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton over 9.5f when she was probably in need of it. One can ignore her next run at Newmarket over a mile. She was never touched and that constituted a public gallop.

The better ground and step up in trip should suit, though. She has a nice draw as well. You never quite know how these unexposed types develop, but on the surface there is little to fear from her rivals.

Given she was a £270k yearling back in 2021 there’s every chance she could be seriously underestimated by the handicapper on her handicap debut here.

10pts win – Lady Rascal @ 11/4

…….

4.45 York: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Gioia Cieca has found back to form since a break in which he was gelded and underwent a wind operation. Prior to this he finished a long way beaten on five consecutive occasions after a strong runner-up effort last April.

Back last month at Musselburgh, off for 235 days, he caught the eye for the way he finished after a less than ideal way the race developed for him from the start.

He was desperately unlucky next time over the same course and distance and that performances warranted an upgrade as the one before, especially as both runs came on softish ground.

No doubt Gioia Cieca is a better horse on decent ground. His two best career performances can on fast ground over 7 furlongs. Therefore the ground should be ideal, as long as the rain forecast doesn’t result in a deluge.

10pts win – Gioia Cieca @ 8/1

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6.15 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Spanish Angel is so dramatically well handicapped, he really should win this…. if he can get up the hill at Hamilton. Mews House also looks dangerous off the same mark as his recent close 2nd place finish, but he may prefer a bit of rain.

In contrast, Spanish Angel will hope the rain stays away and it rides as decent ground, which looks likely right now. That will see him improve a number of pounds on his recent strong performances.

He just failed in a three-way finish at Chelmsford last week, when runner-up behind a well-handicapped winner. Prior that he caught the eye thanks to a huge performance at Catterick on softish ground.

The widest draw was probably a disadvantage that day, nonetheless he made strong progress from 3f out against the stands’ rail and finished best of his group there.

He confirmed the strong AW form that he was in all winter. He seems to be on a lenient turf mark compared to his AW mark, because there’s no way that 10lb worse. He certainly isn’t, judged on judged on speed ratings.

10pts win – Spanish Angel @ 5/2

………..

8.26 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

If this would be a furlong shorter I’d have supreme confidence that Basholo is going to win. The additional furlong and the stiff finish make me doubtful.

I have been weighing up the pros and cons all day and ultimately feel at given prices she is worth a bet in this race.

Not much else is hear to fear. Macho pride, the obvious one candidate to spoil the party, of course. Otherwise, Basholo herself is her biggest danger.

The filly has tons of speed and she showed it last time at Ayr. She burned through the first couple of furlongs and tired understandably. Nonetheless, I was impressed with her attitude to fight all the way to the line.

This is an easier race and she continues to race off a career-lowest mark. The likely decent ground is what she wants, and if Zak Wheatley can set slightly more conservative fractions early on she should have a decent chance to stay all the way to the line.

10pts win – Basholo @ 6/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 18th May 2023

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14 losers on the bounce. Then came Soul Sister. She romped home in the Musidora on Wednesday and made a mockery of the 21/1 odds on offer.

A winner I needed to get back into green for May, which looked rather dismal up until the moment Frankie Dettori pressed the button on the filly as she accelerated and dipped bellow 11 seconds to storm home.

Chinthurst ran a solid race at Bath to finish 4th. Ultimately he wasn’t good enough. Will need to review the race again before making a decision whether he’s one worth persisting with.

……..

3.35 York. Group 2 Dante Stakes, 1m 2½f

This looks a hot edition of the Dante. I really like Epictetus and not just because he’s written one of my favourite books… the philosopher, not the horse, that is.

Epictetus is the only colt in the field with a 100+ speed rating to his name. Not sure he wants to much further than 10 furlongs. This additional half furlong may be too far, ultimately.

The experience and stamina of Flying Colours looks interesting, as long as he trained on, as he also ran to a 98 speed rating last year. Lightly-raced Passenger, Canberra Legend and recent Ballysax winner White Birch offer plenty of upside.

The one I’m incredibly keen to see for a while now is also finally making his belated seasonal reappearance: Continuous.

He’s one of my 3-year-olds to follow and certainly one of the more intriguing ones. And how could it be any different with his pedigree.

 A son of Japanese sire Heart’s Cry – who was a winner of the Sheema Classic in 2006 – out of Fluff, which was down to pure chance because the mare was supposed to be covered by Deep Impact, who sadly passed away right before she arrived in Japan.

Continues is the only son of Heart’s Cry actively racing in the UK and Ireland (possibly Europe) right now. His sire is well known for stamina in Japan, having sired Japan Cup winners and other multiple international top-class horses over middle-distance top-class .

He won well at the Curragh over 7 furlongs when he made all on his racecourse debut as he kicked on over 2 furlongs out to achieve an 80 speed rating as well, which confirmed he’s possibly a smart one.

Continuous went on to win a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud over a mile. A gutsy performance in a slowly run race that didn’t suit him. I loved the attitude he showed in those first two career runs.

There no doubt in my mind he’ll improve moving up in trip and with age. Therefore 10.5f won’t be an issue. Neither should be track. He strikes me as a relentless galloper, who should enjoy York.

On the other hand the ground is a question mark. His juvenile form came on deep ground and he seems to hit the ground hard enough. It’s also a concern that he makes a belated seasonal reappearance. He was supposed to start much earlier, but Aiden O’Brien is on the record that he needed time.

How fit is Continuous here? I reckon they wouldn’t bother travelling over, as well as him as the sole entry for the Dante, if he wouldn’t be ready to go.

He’s doesn’t have an entry for the Derby, though. It’s Ascot and the Irish Derby as well as the Eclipse. That worries me less. Because he’ll have to run well enough to take up those entries.

Ryan Moore didn’t sound too excited about this lad for the Dante when asked. So there are enough negatives to leave him alone. On the other hand, the price is silly, as there’s enough to believe he can outrun these odds easily given his pedigree, the talent he showed as a juvenile.

10pts win – Continuous @ 11/1

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6.55 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

This could be the opportunity connections have been waiting for with Lord Rapscallion. It looks a perfect race for a number of reasons.

For one, his latest effort in a hot class 2 Handicap over this course and distance doesn’t read too well on the surface; however, one can easily argue he ran well, and perhaps even outperformed market expectations given he was only 4¼ lengths beaten as a 22/1 shot.

He travelled well for a long time and didn’t fade too badly in the final furlong, either. This is clearly a horse in good form. He was, though, outclassed.

This here is much, much easier. From 0-105 down to 0-80 level. Prior to this he showed a clear uptick in form at Chelmsford last month as well. it was a good run there, one that was an improvement on anything he showed since winning back to back in December.

He won off 76 and 80 then, and it’s looks significant that he dropped town to his last winning mark now again. He’s probably a little bit better on turf, though. He ran twice to speed rating 84+ last year on turf over 7 furlongs, which means he’s got a bit in hand, possibly.

Lord Rapscallion may prefer the July course over the Rowley Mile, but as mentioned earlier, he looked solid over this CD recently, and with the drying ground expected, shouldn’t have an issue to act here.

The race may develop in an ideal way for him as well. There is plenty of pace on. He is at his best when he can closely follow a good pace. That’s scenario is given here and he sees out the trip strongly, even can win over a mile.

10pts win – Lord Rapscallion @ 9/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 17th May 2023

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3.35 York: Group 3 Musidora Stakes, 1m 2½f

A competitive renewal of the Musirora Stakes. Gather Ye Rosebuds looks potentially smart having run to a serious speed rating on her debut about three weeks ago.

But I’ll stick to Soul Sister, one of my Horses to Follow this year, despite a desperate seasonal reappearance, last month at Doncaster.

That run looks bad. But it can be totally ignored, in my view. The deep ground, 7 furlongs, her first run for the year. All came together and worked against her.

This daughter of Frankel should very much improve for better ground and as she moves up in trip.

Keeping that in mind, the more it looks impressive what she did on her sole run as a juvenile last year on soft ground over a mile at Doncaster.

That day she showed a superb attitude and staying qualities on her debut as she stayed on strongly to get up in the dying strides in a head-to-head battle.

She possesses a lot of stamina and will have no issues stepping to 10 furlongs, and possibly beyond. Her full-siblings have been pretty smart in their own right as well.

I am more than happy to give her ‘another’ chance, even though I had no interest to back her in the Fred Darling. I feel this is her first proper race this season and she is clearly overpriced.

10pts win – Soul Sister @ 21/1

……

8.10 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

Chinthurst is one of those handicappers I’m following this year as I believe he could have quite a bit in hand once he races over the right trip.

I was taken by his seasonal reappearance at Windsor last month in seriously deep ground. He travelled pretty well for a long time before he fell away badly to finish a long beaten 4th.

But this was a strong race, he may have needed it in any case, and there’s every chance he can improve from the outing and enjoy the better conditions today a bit more.

He also steps up in trip to 10 furlongs, which is most likely to suit. He’s a son of Nathanial out of a Dylan Thomas mare – you can be almost certain he’s going to improve as a 3-year-old and as he moves up in trip.

With that in mind, I felt what he did as a juvenile warrants respect and proved there is possibly more ability than his current lowly rating suggests.

After three unremarkable qualifying runs, he improved markedly on his Handicap debut and final run in 2022 at Brighton over 7 furlongs.

There he found himself multiple times outpaced but kept showing a positive attitude as he finished well up the hill and achieved a 53 speed rating.

The performance warrants an upgrade, as the form has worked out well in the meantime, and he’s rated only a pound higher today.

The wide draw and large field are a small concern. I also wouldn’t hope the ground dries out to anything beyond good. At given prices, and granted he’s been drifting, it’s worth taking the risk here.

10pts win – Chinthurst @ 7/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 9th July 2022

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On a roll. A hat-trick of winners over the last three days. Flotus won the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York in lovely fashion.

It couldn’t have gone any better: the filly broke well, led the field, although others tried to go with her. Halfway through the race I thought she may have done too much too early. But she kept going all the way strongly to the line. She proved the best filly in the race. Class prevailed.

Hard to believe how rapidly and dramatically the tide can turn in this game as long as you make good decisions, believe in your method (IF it’s a solid and proven method) and show consistency in the effort put in day in day out and most importantly the quality of decisions made.

Already five winners in the first week of July, that’s one more than in the entire individual months of April or May. Right now things are flowing, so to speak. But the pendulum can swing as quickly the other way again, I know all too well.

So I’ll try to stick (not always easy) to the Golden Rules regarding emotions: never too high, never too low. Because three losers on Saturday and the world looks a little bit gloomier again.

3.35 Ascot: Group 2 Summer Mile, 1m

A close one: there isn’t much between the main principles in the field on official ratings, RPR’s or topspeed – the outcome will depend on the form on the day, on pace and possibly on who gets first run round the Ascot mile.

Modern News, My Oberon and Perotto met only a fortnight ago at Windsor in a tight finish with not more than ¾ of a lengths between them as My Oberon finished strongly to get up on the line.

I felt that day Perotto could be marked up for his front-running effort when he possibly over-raced a bit in the early stages. I was hugely impressed how he fought back so gamely once headed, even after being slightly hampered over half a furlong from home. He simply didn’t give up.

He’s no star but a rock solid individual, who has sometimes lacked sharpness out of the gates but clearly responded well to front-running tactics the last time. Cheek-pieces added seem a logical move and hopefully help him to be sharp early. A prominent position on fast ground at the round course is an advantage in my book.

He acts well on fast ground, clearly stays a mile as seen when winning a strongly run Britannia last year and should go well. He’s not the likeliest winner, but certainly overpriced while better fancied horses are priced up according to reputation more so than substance, I feel.

Chindit in particular, who looks a wrong favourite. He hasn’t even cracked a 90 topspeed rating in his last six starts.

10pts win – Perotto @ 12/1

…….

4.45 Ascot: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Washraa is clearly well handicapped on the basis of her seriously impressive Sandringham Stakes run. She travelled like a good thing, looked likely to come with a big challenge over two furlongs out, but clipped heels, stumbled badly and lost every chance, yet finished in impressive style, nonetheless.

Of course it’s hypothetical how much she would have found with a clear run. Though, I’m pretty certain she would have gone seriously close. She can race off the same mark here, which offers a great opportunity to resume the winning habit she showed in two starts before Royal Ascot.

She improved nicely since her seasonal reappearance, hinting talent already as a juvenile and should have too much talent for this slightly easier race than the rivals she encountered at Royal Ascot.

10pts win – Washraa @ 3/1

…….

5.20 Ascot: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Out From Under is a strong favourite. Only a pound up for his recent very strong Newmarket effort is possibly lenient. At prices I must select the talented filly Tarrabb, though. I reckon she is better than her official rating of 80.

Whether she is already better now, after three career runs, is the key question. She looked raw and very much learning on the job in all her races, nonetheless won really well on debut, wasn’t disgraced when beaten as runner-up subsequently after pulling hard, and lost her race at the gates at Thirsk.

She still very much caught the eye that day in particular, making good progress from the back of the field but not getting a clear run. It’s reasonable to assume she is ahead of her mark. Straight Ascot seven looks an ideal, simple test for the filly.

10pts win – Tarrabb @ 8/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 8th July 2022

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Two lovely winners at good prices the last two days – the ups and downs of the game…. funny how it all goes. Last night at Epsom Hector Loza went from the front and never really looked in danger once he kicked on. 13.5 was always a big price for a potentially seriously well handicapped horse if he was right.

He was. And he was a massive price for all the right reasons. Easy said in hindsight, of course. Often enough these type of horses finish bottom last (and i made a habit of backing them). But he clearly showed in his recent starts still some appetite for the game. No habit of starting slowly. Also a lovely, confident, positive ride by Jack Duern. His 3lb are highly valuable.

June started so badly with those 18 consecutive losers; July started in a rather pleasant way with four winners already. I wouldn’t mind this good spell of form to continue for a while.

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2.40 York: Group 3 Summer Stakes, 6f

If the effects of a tough race at Royal Ascot having left too many marks than Flotus should be hard to beat today. The filly looks still improving after a productive juvenile campaign, having ran seriously strong races in defeat the last two times this season.

Obviously her third place finish in the Commonwealth Cup rates the best piece of form in this race. She was bang up with the pace and raced pretty hard in the early stages. She couldn’t bring it quite home, but that’s no shame in such a quality Group 1 sprint.

Arguably even more impressive, in my eyes, was her desperately close runner-up effort at Haydock behind smart Sense Of Duty. The winner has franked the form in no uncertain terms and overall it looks an incredibly strong piece of form.

Flotus fought all the way to the line after attempting to lead wire to wire while Sense Of Duty was held up. I really loved how Flotus kicked on again at the final furlong marker after being heavily challenged. Great attitude!

Trip, ground and track are of no concern today. She poses the fastest speed rating in the field and has confirmed her form this season in excellent style.

There are a few dangers in the field, Gale Force Maya probably the biggest one if she could repeat her latest strong performance. She ran a fast topspeed, a clear career-best, but I wouldn’t trust her to do it again.

Hala Hala Athmani looks improving. Only her fourth start, she can do better. But drawn on the opposite from where most likely the pace will come is far from ideal.

Also on the up is Benefit, a recent Listed race winner. Zain Claudette may improve from her seasonal debut at Ascot. She was a Group 3 winner as a juvenile. But she’s got something to find even at her best with Flotus.

10pts win – Flotus @ 3/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 11th June 2022

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6.15 Leicester: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Small field and interesting from a pace angle, this class 4 Handicap looks a weak race nonetheless. Most if not all of these could have a claim to grab the lead, or at the very least follow it closely. How will this pan out?

Two from my eyecatcher list are running, with Ex Gratia preferred in the market over Devilwala.

The filly caught my eye at Lingfield on the All-Weather and subsequently ran a good race when second on Lingfield’s turf course. Ultimately she didn’t have excuses the last time and off the same mark I don’t think she is anything better than handicapped to her best form. That can be good enough in this weak race today, but her temperamental issues are off putting too.

Devilwala is clearly the one I am most interested from a price perspective, though. Whether today is the day remains to be seen. The jockey booking isn’t inspiring. But there are a number of things I like that make be believe he’s got a better than one in ten chance to win today given he’s down to a really sexy handicap mark.

He came to my attention at Ripon in April when he ran a lot better than the bare result suggested, in my view. He clearly didn’t stay the mile and the opposition was too hot most likely, anyway.

The next three times he races against even hotter competition and stood no chance, although the last time at Chester I felt he didn’t get the best of runs and he could have finished closer.

If I believe this to be true then I must firmly believe he’s a proper chance today, given he drops in class off 5lb lower in the Official Rating running over what’s most likely his optimum trip.

Obviously Devilwala has fallen a long way from the previous heights of being rated 113 and finishing only 2¾ behind St. Mark’s Basilica in the Dewhurst. Obviously there is every chance that he’s gone. But I felt he showed enough this year to assume he still has some appetite for the game.

10pts win – Devilwala @ 10/1

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3.40 York: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

This is a ultra-competitive sprint Handicap and I can make the case for more than a handful to be in with a realistic shout. Plenty of potential improvers and loads of strong LTO form on offer.

Yet my eye is drawn to Vintage Clarets, one who’s not shown anything on paper this year so far. He’s far from a likely winner, nonetheless I feel you won’t find many days a better 22/1 shot.

If one looks what’s underpinning his 2022 form then he’s performed with more credit than those naked results would tell. For one he’s raced in hot races three times, the last time over course and distance against older horses. A seriously tough assignment. He was too keen early on and faded away in the closing stages but long time was right in the mix.

At Chester he ran actually quite a good race in unsuitable conditions, even clocking the fasted split for the penultimate furlong. He’s nine pounds lower in the mark than when he started the season at Newmarket – off 87 I think he’s dangerous given he showed enough the last two times to suggest there’s life.

Obviously as an early peaking juvenile last year, third in the Coventry, only 2 lengths down in the highly competitive Super Sprint, one has to take it with a pinch of salt as this often doesn’t translate to 3-year-old form.

But crucially Vintage Clarets will have his preferred fast ground today for the first time this year. He’s likely to have a pace to chase from his draw, which might help him to settle better and tow him into the closing stages with a shot.

Others may improve past him, have better form and he may simply be nowhere near as good an older horse as he was a juvenile. At 22s it’s low risk high reward given at this point in time he looks a horse capable of running to mark in the low 90s in ideal conditions.

10pts win – Vintage Clarets @ 22/1

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6.45 Leicester: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Beryl Burton is a very obvious choice in this and I have her about a 6/4 chance, rather than the generous odds on offer. The favourite Haven Lady is clearly progressing nicely on turf over this trip and may have more to offer, but simply hasn’t run overly fast yet, hence she’s vulnerable in my book.

Contrasting that with Beryl Burton who was seriously unlucky last time out over ten furlongs, she ran to topspeed 56 that day. For a neck beaten 2nd place she is up two pounds but should be well able to defy it with a clear run and for possible improvement over the additional distance.

She doesn’t have a sexy profile with one single victory in 13 lifetime starts, but she knocked on the door a number of times and her pedigree suggests 12 furlongs is well within range, a trip she’s completely unexposed.

Nine days ago at Redcar she was held up and travelled well, making excellent progress in the home straight, but ultimately didn’t get a run at a crucial stage, while the eventual winner, still well handicapped Rocket Dancer, got first run. She got out with a furlong to go and finished much the strongest.

The obvious question marks today aren’t whether she is good enough to win off 56 – she clearly is, and neither is it a mater of stamina, I believe. however she can have a tendency to be keen early on and that can be fatal over the additional distance.

I hope there’s enough pace on with the obvious leaders Haven Lady and Eagle One. It’s a small enough field, which at least should minimise any danger of meeting trouble.

10pts win – Beryl Burton @ 5/2