Another winner on Thursday: Lord Rapscallion ran home strongly to win at a whopping 16/1 SP (26.5 BSP)!
Scratching my head why he went of this huge price because I felt he was a rather obviously well-handicapped horse in this field (saying it in hindsight is an easy as equally beautiful thing).
Obviously, the huge SP is totally meaningless for my personal P&L. Which is totally fine. 9/1 is a lovely price, and I can only evaluate the price on offer to me at the time of backing the horse.
Continuous ran a lovely race in the Dante. Money came right before the off. He was backed down to 6/1. Travelled strongly, made good progress and finished a good 3rd. More to come.
Friday looks ominous. It’s a rare occasion when I have four (most likely five – one to be added in the morning, couldn’t get matched what I wanted yet) bets on a single day. Especially two of those at odds below 3/1. It could be a brilliant day…. but it could be one that sees me hand some of that lovely profit right back.
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4.55 Newbury: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f
Two eyecatchers run here, both unexposed: Cherryhawk possibly ran too well on handicap debut recently; although, there is more to come, especially on better ground and with race fitness now assured.
There’s plenty more unexposed form in this field, but even at skinny odds I think there is a better chance than the price suggests that Lady Rascal is better than her opening mark.
She’s one of my 3-year-old Handicappers to follow for the season and that hasn’t changed after her two runs this season. Those were qualifying runs and she was always expected to be better once she moves up in trip.
Whether 10 furlongs is quite long enough, given her full-brother stayed much further, remains to be seen. She has an entry for 1m 3.5f next week, so there is that option.
However, off 67 she could have too much in hand for this opposition over this trip. I liked her seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton over 9.5f when she was probably in need of it. One can ignore her next run at Newmarket over a mile. She was never touched and that constituted a public gallop.
The better ground and step up in trip should suit, though. She has a nice draw as well. You never quite know how these unexposed types develop, but on the surface there is little to fear from her rivals.
Given she was a £270k yearling back in 2021 there’s every chance she could be seriously underestimated by the handicapper on her handicap debut here.
10pts win – Lady Rascal @ 11/4
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4.45 York: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Gioia Cieca has found back to form since a break in which he was gelded and underwent a wind operation. Prior to this he finished a long way beaten on five consecutive occasions after a strong runner-up effort last April.
Back last month at Musselburgh, off for 235 days, he caught the eye for the way he finished after a less than ideal way the race developed for him from the start.
He was desperately unlucky next time over the same course and distance and that performances warranted an upgrade as the one before, especially as both runs came on softish ground.
No doubt Gioia Cieca is a better horse on decent ground. His two best career performances can on fast ground over 7 furlongs. Therefore the ground should be ideal, as long as the rain forecast doesn’t result in a deluge.
10pts win – Gioia Cieca @ 8/1
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6.15 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Spanish Angel is so dramatically well handicapped, he really should win this…. if he can get up the hill at Hamilton. Mews House also looks dangerous off the same mark as his recent close 2nd place finish, but he may prefer a bit of rain.
In contrast, Spanish Angel will hope the rain stays away and it rides as decent ground, which looks likely right now. That will see him improve a number of pounds on his recent strong performances.
He just failed in a three-way finish at Chelmsford last week, when runner-up behind a well-handicapped winner. Prior that he caught the eye thanks to a huge performance at Catterick on softish ground.
The widest draw was probably a disadvantage that day, nonetheless he made strong progress from 3f out against the stands’ rail and finished best of his group there.
He confirmed the strong AW form that he was in all winter. He seems to be on a lenient turf mark compared to his AW mark, because there’s no way that 10lb worse. He certainly isn’t, judged on judged on speed ratings.
10pts win – Spanish Angel @ 5/2
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8.26 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
If this would be a furlong shorter I’d have supreme confidence that Basholo is going to win. The additional furlong and the stiff finish make me doubtful.
I have been weighing up the pros and cons all day and ultimately feel at given prices she is worth a bet in this race.
Not much else is hear to fear. Macho pride, the obvious one candidate to spoil the party, of course. Otherwise, Basholo herself is her biggest danger.
The filly has tons of speed and she showed it last time at Ayr. She burned through the first couple of furlongs and tired understandably. Nonetheless, I was impressed with her attitude to fight all the way to the line.
This is an easier race and she continues to race off a career-lowest mark. The likely decent ground is what she wants, and if Zak Wheatley can set slightly more conservative fractions early on she should have a decent chance to stay all the way to the line.
10pts win – Basholo @ 6/1
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