Tag Archives: Sunday

Betting

Sunday Selections: 7th July 2024

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It was good to back a winner yesterday. In fact it was a nice & comfortable win for God Of Fire at Beverley. He was on the pace, in the right position throughout, and simply didn’t stop.

The same fortune didn’t apply to my Durban July selection Future Swing. He clearly wasn’t ready when the gates opened, not standing straight, leaning awkward to the side in the stall and it was a shame the starter let it go. He had no chance.

Whether he would have been good enough on the day with a fair start will be an unknown forever. Credit where it’s due, though: it was a sensational ride by J P v’d Merwe on the winner Oriental Charm, in any case.

Double figure draw? No bother. Once in front, he rode them to sleep, set a perfect tempo for his mount, who wasn’t certain to stay the July trip. But he has speed and travelles and just kicked on hitting the home straight with plenty in hand, and rivals from behind had too much to do as Oriental Charm was able to sustain his effort all the way.

……….

2.45 Hamburg: Group 1 – German Derby, 1m 4f

An open enough contest that may evolve around the way the pace develops with some of the better fancied runners having to overcome double-figure draws.

Likely front-runner Geminiano is a non-runner now, hence this may not turn out into all-out stamina test. It should prove vital to have a good early position, not too far off the pace, which means the likes of Narrativo and Wintertraum, currently the top two in the betting, have to be used up a little more than ideal, possibly, from their 10 and 11 gates early on.

Narrativo heads the market at the time of writing. A superb winner of Union-Rennen, a traditional leading Derby trial, he produced a lovely change of gear from off the pace.

He was a solid 3rd in the strong renewal of the Prix Hocquart behind Calandagan, so that’s proper form and a colt nicely improving with each run.

Wintertraum gets the assistance of Oisin Murphy and was an equally highly impress winner of a Derby Trial at Düsseldorf. He didn’t get a clear run until 300m out and sprinted away in superb style.

I don’t like the double-figure draws both leading betting chances have, and think they’re no more than fair prices, although, they are obvious chances to run well.

I’m quite interested in Wintertraum’s stable mate Augustus, though. He’s a tough sort, improving, and looks a stayer in the making who’ll appreciate the softish ground and the new trip.

He impressed when winning the Derby Trial at Baden-Baden last month as he was doing much the best of those up or chasing the hot pace. He came under pressure, seemingly outpaced over three furlongs from home, also looking still a bit green in the closing stages, but showed tremendous attitude to outstay smart Wilko.

Augustus should be ridden positive from the #1 gate and has the pedigree to improve for the step up to the Derby distance. He’s progressing nicely, as he followed on from a solid seasonal reappearance at Munich with the strong Trial win.

The second horse I’m giving a huge chance, who’s going to be my main bet, is already a Derby winner: Borna. He won the Derby Italiano in brilliant style back in May.

He overcame a wide draw and travelled wider than ideal for the majority of the race, nonetheless he made nice progress on the outside and travelled strongly on the bridle hitting the home straight. Two furlongs out he was all alone up there, and seemed to get a bit lonely, wandering and looking around. Ultimately he won with authority.

That looks strong form. The second, Royal Supremacy finished a fine 3rd at Royal Ascot in the King Edward subsequently. Borna looks a progressive sort, who should only get better with age and experience.

He was beaten by Wintertraum last season, though that was over a mile. He’ll have to prove that he can stretch out over the Derby trip, an additional furlong compared to Capannelle, but then the dam was placed over 1m 7f, so there’s a decent chance.

I like the fact from the #4 gate he’ll get it easy early on to find a decent position not too far off the pace, and given he’s a strong traveller he should be suited by the Hamburg track.

6 pts win – Borna @ 13/2
4pts win – Augustus @ 11/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 16th June 2024

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2.10 Doncaster: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Albeseeingyer caught the eye last time at Beverley on her seasonal reappearance. She was keen to get on with things early on, before falling a little back to chase the pace in third, travelling powerfully into the home straight.

She faded in the final furlong, but was probably entitled to so, given a combination of “needed the run”, half a furlong too far in soft ground and the early exertions.

The race should put her right and she can race off the same mark today. Progressive the last two season, she may not have reached her ceiling. This looks a winnable contest as well.

She loves the 7 furlongs trip, is a course and distance winner and acts on this type of ground as well. I hope they ride her with positive tactics today in a race that lacks a clear pace setter possibly. She can do that and could be hard to beat in that case.

10pts win – Albeseeingyer @ 4/1

……..

5.40 Doncaster: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Showboated looks absolutely primed to win one of these low-grade sprint handicaps and could have found an ideal opportunity, for once. He threatened a couple of times this year but today could be his day.

He caught the eye in all four starts this year, for various reasons. Especially his two most recent performances gave me finally the impression he’s more than ready to win.

At Ayr he bumped into a seriously well-handicapped winner after chasing the pace without cover for most of the race and he showed a great attitude to battle hard to the line, only late denied a first career win.

He was certainly unfortunate last time at Redcar. He had to settle off the pace, given the race developed all on the far side, but he travelled strongly in the closing stages, just to be denied for space at a crucial stage. He finished well, but a clear passage a bit earlier and he’ll get much closer.

Having a strong jockey in the saddle should help too. He needs a bit of pushing and it can’t be a coincidence that Ayr was his career-best performance, also on speed ratings, when Conor Beasley was in the saddle.

Faye McManoman is a solid, no question, but Rowan Scott is an upgrade, strengths wise, in my unqualified view.

My concern is a tactical one. I hope they don’t settle too far off the pace, and instead move forward, to chase it, like at Ayr. Otherwise, he could easily find himself in a pocket once again where he gets out too late.

10pts win – Showboated @ 4/1

………

5.45 Thirsk: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

This is super competitive and probably I shouldn’t get involved, but I can’t leave Jer Batt unbacked at a big price with conditions bordering on perfect for the progressive gelding today.

I loves hi comeback run last month at Doncaster. He travelled strongly as part of a duo leading the field and only got tired in the final furlong to fade back for 4th.

He should improve for the run under his belt and comes here as a still somewhat unexposed sort. He improved nicely last season, and his form when soft appears in the going description is strong, since he moved to the UK.

An impressive winner at Musselburgh on good to soft, his subsequent Chester 2nd was an epic performance -not missed by the handicapper, mind.

One can forgive him the poor showing at Ascot on fast ground when last seen in 2023. He had a long break, and with that in mind his Doncaster performance is worthy of an upgrade.

Thirsk ground is currently good to soft and should stay that way with showers on their way. Any more rain will be better for Jer Batt, of course.

10pts win – Jer Batt @ 13/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 2nd June 2024

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It wouldn’t have made a difference to the result, most likely, yet it was disappointing to see Dancing Gemini once again receiving a ride that compromised his chances to the extremes. Dylan Browne McMonagle is a repeat offender as “catching the eye” way to often for his lack of pace awareness.

His ride cost Dancing Gemini dearly at Longchamp, and once again in the Derby. To drop right back to last position, in a race that didn’t seem to have been run overly fast, when he had a good draw and fine start, was once again surprising as frustrating to watch. It meant he had no control over the route to take for a clear run and was at the mercy of all those 15 rivals ahead of him.

I’m not one to bash jockeys, and no pocket talk either, because, City Of Troy was clearly the best horse in the race – what an impressive performance! But it irked me to see Dancing Gemini getting shocking rides in these two important races.

Some jockeys, no matter how poor they ride, keep their rides in big races. Others, unwarranted, get taken off, like poor Callum Shepherd, for example.

……….

3.17 Listowel: Conditions Race, 1m

An intriguing little contest today at Listowel that may evolve around the pace, and the potential lack of it. This track usually favours those close to the pace.

That may play into the hands of The Liffey, who has shown the ability to lead on debut, but got upset in the stalls and dwelt as a result the next time. He could be a lot better than that showing.

Experienced Quar Shamar also can be forward. Highly tried in the past, his sole win comes on the sand, though. The other 4-year-old in the field, Narmar, is a course and distance winner, but first-time blinkers have to revive him as he was well-beaten the next two times.

Sara Valentina won a weak maiden last month, dropping in trip after a disappointing effort on her racecourse debut last autumn. She moves back up and should be able to see out a mile, given her dam. Certainly an intriguing filly.

Uluru is the most intriguing one, though not only because she’s one of my horses to follow this season.

The filly was mightily impressive on her racecourse debut at Gowran Park last summer: from a wide draw where she didn’t get too well away at the start but eventually ran away with it and clocked an excellent 81 speed rating.

That’s the sign of a potentially smart individual. No surprise, she changed hands afterwards and was desperately unlucky for new owners, Team Valor, in her final start last season.

In a big sales race at Naas it wasn’t a good pace and she got stuck in traffic without a way to get out. She still managed to finish well enough to get him in 4th place.

No question she looks capable of turning into a stakes filly this year, in my view. She only enhanced these claims on her seasonal at Killarney last month. She travelled well and looked to come with a big run on the outside, only a matter of when not if whether she would go past the leader, but she was reportedly hanging badly, and got a remarkably light ride as well, to fail in a tight finish.

The winner Alpheratz is a smart filly in her own right, so this form should be legit, even though she ran a stinker in the Irish 1000 Guineas subsequently.

The question mark for Uluru today is the ground. She never encountered this type of faster surface. But there’s plenty of faster ground form in her pedigree, so proper good ground doesn’t worry me.

10pts win – Uluru @ 7/2

Betting

Sunday Selections: 26th May 2024

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Winners are hard to get for quite a while now, so I was delighted to cheer home Candleford as he landed the Orby Stakes from the front in good style. A second winner for the week.

He was well supported, and I take some general positives from the fact that the majority of selections this week went off shorter SPs than the price I got.

Unfortunately Matilda Picotte ran her race in the paddock, and Unquestionable looked rather unimpressive prior to the race. Rosallion won the Irish 2000 Guineas, in the end, he prevailed in a thriller of a finish.

………

3.45 Curragh: Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas, 1m

It’s going to be interesting to see what impact the impending rain has on the ground, come 3.45pm at the Curragh, this afternoon. Currently still decent ground, the forecast looks grim.

No matter how much rain falls between now and then, the filly I have been waiting for to return this season won’t mind: Azada. One of the horses to follow this year, I was hoping we’d see her in a trial prior the Guineas.

Dermot Weld said as much, but at the same time he’s won this race with fillies on their seasonal debuts, and he seemed reasonably positive about her chances, when speaking earlier this week.

I take that as “good enough” to back her, especially at a big price that possibly/hopefully underestimates her true chance – if, indeed, ready to go. She’s significantly on the drift in the betting this morning, though. Not a good sign?

Azada was mightily impressive on debut in her sole career run toward the end of last year. At Leopardstown, in a 7 furlongs maiden in horrible ground, she accelerated in superb style and left the rest of the field standing.

She overcame signs of greenness and deep ground. Even though Dermot Weld said she may prefer decent ground, I suspect she will always be at her best with some juice in ground, given her pedigree shows tons of good soft ground form too.

That Leopardstown run was notably for how easily she kicked clear under a hands and heels ride. Doing that from the back of the field is never easy at Leopardstown. And she achieved a superb 82 debut speed rating for that performance.

The form hasn’t worked out, mind. But Azada looked all class and you would think she’s got tons of scope to improve as a 3-year-old.

Whether today will see her to best effect on her seasonal reappearance remains to be seen. Other rivals are race fit and I suspect, if she’s ridden with restraint, she will need plenty of luck from her #2 draw. She’s got pace around her, that’s positive. But if the pace tires at some point, she may be stuck on the rail.

It worth a risk, at a price that I would have expected to be half that. This renewal of the Irish 1000 Guineas looks competitive in nature, but there’re plenty of question marks about the main principles.

10pts win – Azada @ 10/1

……

3.10 Curragh: Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup, 1m 2.5f

Can you trust Auguste Rodin? His best is too good for the rivals he meets today. But he’s either hot or cold and you can’t be sure what you get, especially as he returns off a break today.

Aiden O’Brien trained horses often improve for their return run, and you would expect Auguste Rodin to fall into the same pattern, with bigger targets looming large on the horizon.

At given prices, I’m happy to take him on, for that reason alone. There are enough viable alternatives in this field, thankfully.

White Birch comes to mind, obviously. He’s won two in a row, has been much more professional, racing closer to the pace and that saw him land the Mooresbridge and Alleged Stakes over 10 furlongs in good style.

Despite the rain forecast, the ground may not turn soft enough for the grey to be seen to best effect, though.

Lumiere Rock loves this track, ran often well in hot races against her own sex last year and takes on the boys now. She may get it easy at the front of the race and may enjoy a tactical advantage for that reason alone.

Nonetheless, the filly has to step up significantly as her career-best speed ratings aren’t good enough to win a Group 1, let alone one against male opposition.

Mashoor also enjoys this course and distance. He was disappointing in his two runs this season, and will hope not too much rain will go into the ground. He may track the pace, though, could be in a prime position, and may outrun his big odds.

Saying that, I’m firmly in the Elegant Man camp today. The son of Arrogate hasn’t impressed on speed ratings yet, but I was seriously taken by his superb performance in the Easter Classic at Newcastle.

From the widest gate, he overcame a sluggish start, to lead a highly competitive field from the front and never looked in doubt in the closing stages, only late getting fully ridden out to the line.

He followed on from a visually impressive run at Dundalk in January and an excellent runner-up effort behind subsequent Sheema Classic winner Rebel’s Romance.

Elegant Man has ran only on the All-Weather so far. It remains to be seen how he can translate that form to turf. That’s the key question today. Reportedly he worked well on turf in training, but you never quite know what you get until a horses proves it in a race.

His pedigree doesn’t give too much clues either. Hence it’s a bit of a gamble. In saying that, if he can translate those brilliant sand performances to turf, he should be a huge runner today. We’ll know our fate early in the race, I reckon.

10pts win – Elegant Man @ 9/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 12th May 2024

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3.30 Longchamp: Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains, 1m

Obviously Henry Longfellow is the one I’m most interested in. One of my horses to follow this year (hardly an original thought, to be fair), he’s got the looks of a potential superstar.

Drawn in #6 the son of Dubawi won’t have many excuses today and I hope he just runs away with it. At the price, it’s hard to justify a bet, in a deep race, though.

Purely from a value perspective I must back Dancing Gemini, who will enjoy a low draw, a prominent racing position and has shown a significant amount of talent as a juvenile as well.

Reportedly having wintered well, connections were deliberate routing their star colt to Longchamp as opposed to Newmarket. Perhaps a wise move, given he should enjoy this test, with the draw and the way the race may pan out a lot better.

The son of Camelot is quite experienced already. Five runs, two wins and he improved significantly for his fist two career runs as well as racing more forward.

He hinted no uncertain amount of talent when sprinting away at Newbury with a first maiden success in August, before romping home in the Scotsman Stakes.

Perhaps committing too early in the Futurity Stakes, Dancing Gemini ran still with plenty of credit in a hot renewal back in October last year.

He’s shown to handle juice in the ground – important today. The step up in trip is sure to suit, given his pedigree, by Camelot and out of a daughter of Australia.

Given this pedigree, it seems noteworthy the tactical speed he showed last year. His talent is underpinned by a fine 73 debut speed rating in June and a strong 99 speed rating when he won at Doncaster.

The exchange prices are way over the top in my view, so I’m happy to back him against the favourite.

10pts win – Dancing Gemini @ 18/1

……..

4.17 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

With the pace chart somewhat muddling, I feel it can be worth to side with proven and happy front-runner Jean Baptiste, who ran incredibly well from the front a fortnight ago at Ayr to finish a gallant 2nd.

No certainty that he can confirm that strong performance, but back on the sand where some of his best career efforts came over the years, especially this CD (regardless of what the naked record says, on speed ratings he ran really well in higher grades here).

Two pounds up and he loses the valuable claim of Jonny Peate today, compared to Ayr, that’s not ideal. But still 3lb below his last winning mark on turf, and the same 79 rating as when an excellent second two years ago over this course and distance.

Jean Baptiste is value at current prices in my book, well capable to outrun the odds in an open race that lacks quality. He’s drifting, though, which isn’t a good sign for this type of horse, to be fair.

10pts win – Jean Baptiste @ 11.5/1

…….

3.07 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Favourite Cross The Tracks looks well drawn but not sure why he’s so short, as the drop in trip doesn’t look ideal and he’s 8lb worth off in the weights than last time.

Yes, that came in a hot class 2 Handicap, so he’s shown a bit of class. But not on speed ratings yet. At that price I’m happy to take him on.

Mr Wonderful and Oakland Princess look intriguing opposition here. If race fit, the Amo Racing gelding could prove better than a 77 rating on his handicap debut.

However, I’m most intrigued by the filly, Oakland Princess, who can race here off a feather weight and should have plenty more to offer.

I felt it was significant that she didn’t take up her entry at Nottingham yesterday, in a race I thought she had a strong chance. Instead she comes here.

The filly ran with plenty of credit on her Handicap debut over this course and distance earlier this month. But she didn’t get a clean run through, was badly stopped in her progress at 1.5f from home, but got going again and finished well under hands and heels.

She appeared still raw in the early stages of the race. With the added experience, and hopefully a clear run today, she’s in with a shot. The draw isn’t ideal, away from the early pace, but Sam James shouldn’t have too much trouble to get across quickly to track the lead.

10pts win – Oakland Princess @ 8/1

…….

5.27 Newcastle: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

It seems worth to take a chance on Curran in an open race back over the course and distance of his very first career win.

You can forgive his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster in deep ground where he made way too much too soon in any case, in a what was a competitive Handicap, too.

This is easier. There’s competition for the lead from the favourite, but that may well suit, in fact, as Curran can track the pace, as he did when he won twice last year.

Todays run will also be his second after having been gelded over the winter. You’d hope to see a significantly improved performance compared to Doncaster.

10pts win – Curran @ 17/2

Betting

Sunday Selections: 5th may 2024

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3.40 Newmarket: Group 1 1000 Guineas, 1m

You can’t ignore the credentials of the Karl Burke trained favourite Fallen Angel. The daughter of Too Darn Hot improved with every run last season, culminating in an impressive Moyglare success.

That form offers an excellent springboard for more success this year. She’s likely to appreciate the step up to a mile and seems drawn well, near enough to where the pace is likely to develop. She’s quite versatile, can move forward or track the pace.

There’s so much to like and she’s probably the right favourite. If anything, the price is nothing more than fair, given so many unknowns in a race such the 1000 Guineas.

Also there’s plenty of pace in this race. We have seen 24h ago how that can end for well-fancied horses. She may burn too much fuel early on, is a danger I can foresee.

Porta Fortuna possibly posts the strongest juvenile performance, though, certainly on speed ratings, when winning the Cheveley Park Stakes. She continued her progress with a gallant 2nd at Santa Anita.

The question I have is whether she really is as good over a mile as a 3-year-old as she was over 6 furlongs last season. The draw doesn’t do her any favour, the way the race may pan out. Intriguing contender, but not at this price.

I’m intrigued also by what William Buick does on Dance Sequence, especially as she can miss the kick. He may have to use the filly early on to get into a good position as otherwise, also drawn on the wing, somewhat away from the pace, may be detrimental.

She ran well in he Nell Gwyn and I’d fancy her to turn the form around with Pretty Crystal over the new trip. Whether that’s good enough to land a Guineas remains to be seen.

The winner that day, Pretty Crystal, has yet to run a serious speed rating in six career runs. I have my doubts that she can improve to the level normally required to win a Guineas.

French raider Ramatuelle was ultra-impressive winning the Robert Papin last July. He’s race fit after a good 2nd at Deauville last month. He came back for more after travelling well and burning a lot of energy in the first half of a slowly run race. The mile is a question mark, though.

Star Style for the Hannon team was brilliant on his debut a few weeks ago, posting a 84 speed rating. She’s one to keep an eye on, for all that a mile in this grade, with competition for the lead, may be beyond her stamina reserves.

Ylang Ylang was progressive last year and her course and distance Group 1 Fillies’ Mile win is as good as it gets in this field. I’m slightly worried about the drying ground, as she seemed to show her best with juice in the ground.

See The Fire showed promise as a juvenile and should do even better this year. She’s bred to stay beyond a mile, but may appreciate the fast pace today as well as the better ground.

Her tendency to hang in the closing stages certainly cost her an unbeaten record as a 2-year-old, I reckon. With that in mind her 3rd in the Fillies’ Mile warrants an upgrade.

She was still so raw and unfinished last season. Clearly there’s more to come, given her pedigree. She still showed an ability to travel and quicken. Both should be of use today.

The draw isn’t ideal. Out on the wing, Oisin Murphy will have to make an early decision, whether to sit back and suffer potentially in traffic late, or whether to move forward and across to get closer to the lead that should develop toward the centre.

That’s a risk I’m prepared to take. See The Fire seems still a bit overpriced. If she can run straight she could well be the best filly in the race, today and long-term.

10pts win – See The Fire @ 10/1

…..

4.23 Hamilton: Class 5 Handicap, 8.5f

Shine On Brendan must have a serious chance in this race, Money arrived throughout the morning, which I take as a positive sign, and he’s still perhaps a point or a bit more even too big, if on a going day.

He loves it here, has a positive 8-3-2 record over this course and distance and was a fine second in this very race twelve months ago off a 2lb lower mark.

Two solid comeback runs should put him spot on. From a wide draw he ran with plenty of credit a fortnight ago at Musselburgh. The soft ground will certainly suit today.

That last performance gave a fair indication that Shine On Brendan may not be too far of the level of form the gelding showed in 2023, where he ran to 64 and 69 speed ratings, won off 68 and got close off 70.

The 7-year-old has shown in the past that he can move forward. Potentially a big advantage today, in a race with not too much competition for the lead expected.

10pts win – Shine On Brendan @ 5/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 28th April 2024

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15.30 Weatherby: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

The pace may not be the strongest, and that could help proven front-runner Crownthorpe to outrun his price. Not sure how many want to be truly up there in testing conditions, perhaps the favourite Harswell Duke, who’s got form, is one of those.

Obviously he’s one I like, as he was a recent eyecatcher, but at prices Crownthorpe is a much better bet. This is his third run off a break, and he ran with plenty of credit on sand the two times prior.

Especially his most recent effort was quite likeable, as he was at the front of proceedings for a long time. If fitness has improved, with the return to turf and a track possibly to suit on ground he won’t mind, the veteran could be hard to pass.

The last time seen on turf was about a year ago, at Beverley on good to soft over 8.5f and he was a gallant 2nd off 6lb higher than today, behind a well-handicapped winner.

He’s got a really strong record in these lower grades and this race represents another slight drop in class.

10pts win – Crownthorpe @ 11/1

……..

5.15 Wetherby: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 6f

Flowering caught the eye a number of times over the recent weeks, without winning, though. The filly ran with plenty of credit on the All-Weather, finishing second or third in her five runs on sand this year, prior to a return to turf last time out.

Her four most recent efforts have all caught my attention in no uncertain way, and they suggest the filly, albeit possibly appearing to find ways of losing and being in the grip of the handicapper, is ripe for a ‘W’.

Earlier this week once again she was somewhat unfortunate. At Beverley, down to 10 furlongs, Flowering clearly proved her suitability for soft ground – crucial today.

The filly has developed some issues at the gate, although this time, not advantaged by the #8 gate, she also stumbled, and as a consequence was bound to travel in rear.

Drawn in #3 today, with not too much pace in the race, I hope she can get toward the front sooner rather than later, as she ran her best races from a prominent position.

At Beverley, she made strong progress, going quite well, but had to delay her run when stuck in traffic and the winner was long gone when she got clear passage. She finished best of all in the deep ground, suggesting, the step up to 1m 6f isn’t out of question.

It’s certainly worth a try, a things happen a little less quick, and that could help her. She seems a relentless galloper, and the track will suit this style, as long as she’s in a prominent racing position.

If that’s the case, a mark of 58 could underestimate her in these conditions, what’s only her 3rd run on turf. The hot favourite beat her on the sand, but soft ground, 1m 6f, at Wetherby is a different story, possibly.

10pts win – Flowering @ 4/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 7th April 2024

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3.43 Bath: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

A race of this nature looks highly competitive but the ground will only allow a select few to get involved. I wouldn’t fancy a horse on a seasonal return here at all, and rather am looking for race fitness coupled with form on this ground.

With that in mind, I can’t look past Glorious Angel, the 4-year-old filly, who put up a huge performance earlier this week at Pontefract as a runner-up.

It’s tough going back to back in such short space of time, but sprinters can recover quicker, and the Tuer yard is in superb form also.

At Pontefract she had to overcome the widest and as a consequence had to do more in the early part of the race than the eventual winner. She was gutsy all the way to the line, though.

Her two runs prior this year were also noteworthy. She did way too much in a hot Listed contest at Doncaster last month over 6f, and prior on her seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton over 7f, she was still ahead with just over a furlong to go, before running out of fuel.

This Bath test on heavy ground over the minimum trip, may be the absolute ideal scenario to add a 6th career win to her CV.

Even though her win record wouldn’t quite tell the story, Glorious Angel’s career best performances all came over 5 furlongs in deep ground. She stays further, which can be of benefit, given there should be plenty of pace here.

That in itself will be of benefit, given the filly can be keen early on. Her low weight and the assistance of solid 5lb claiming apprentice Joe Leavy can only be of benefit in these conditions.

From a handicap perspective, she is certainly rated to go close, judged on last Octobers career-best effort over 5f in heavy ground at Doncaster, where she finished a gallant 2nd, off 87, achieving an 86 speed rating.

Down to 84, with the 5lb claim, in conditions she enjoys, certainly race fit, hopefully recovered well enough from Tuesday, she’s a massive runner here and I still find value in the current price.

10pts win – Glorious Angel @ 5/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 24th March 2024

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“Mr Professor off 92 could be dangerous. He’ll love this ground and the likely fast pace. He’s one of the bigger prices that Intrigues me.”

It’s what I wrote in my Lincoln preview and still didn’t back him, as Mr Professor ran away with the Lincoln at Doncaster.

My selection Blues Emperor was up with the pace but wasn’t advantaged by the direction of the wind, I think. He finished down the field. Think he remains one to keep any eye on.

I can live with it. It was a big price, I’d back him again at those odds, no doubt. I’m more annoyed with myself with those two seriously poor Friday selections. Anyway, move on, and let’s find a winner today….

………

3.40 Doncaster: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

Intriguing contest because there is very little obvious pace in this race and because the betting is doing some funny things throughout this morning.

Last years winner of this very same race, Bucephalus, is one who can track a pace, and comes here in good form, off only 5lb higher than for that comfortable win twelve months ago.

Despite a prominent mentioning from Hugh Taylor, I don’t like him from a speed rating perspective and I am happy to go against him.

I feel those close to the top of the market are nothing more than fairly priced. Stressfree is unexposed and loves this ground and trip. He could be well placed, but has to prove he can do it in this class. Speed ratings leave a lot to be desired, for now.

Ensued ran well on the All-Weather since his return from Hong Kong. His speed rating suggest he’s normally not up to this class and an 80 mark is stiff enough.

The “x-factor” in this race clearly is Qitaal. He was badly on the drift this morning, but has been backed in again. Hence I jumped on board because he’s possibly the only runner in the field truly comfortable to lead.

The 5-year-old is also talented, seriously lightly raced for his age, and on a dangerous 77 handicap mark IF healthy.

He did well for Mark Johnston as a juvenile and fetched £220k at the horses in training sale back then. Things didn’t work out in Ireland where was seen only once in Listed class for Ken Condon.

Gelded since then, not seen ever since, now back with the Johnston’s in their ownership as well, it’s intriguing to see what Qitaal can do. It’s not unusual for Johnston horses setting the pace – no better man on board today than Joe Fanning too.

I’m sure they revert to front-running tactics as he did when landing a decent maiden at Nottingham, back in October 2021.

He has shown to handle soft ground as a 2-year-old. If ready to go, and the money suggests he is, I think there is every chance he’s way too well-handicapped in this field, especially if allowed a soft lead.

There’s every chance he’s never going to be horse he promised to be years ago, also. I’ll take the gamble today, given this race looks so open, especially at the price (seems like loads of money coming quickly, not sure how long the 6-7s hold) where the pace could be seriously muddy, this feels like a no-brainer to me.

10pts win – Qitaal @ 7/1 (SM, MB)

Betting

Sunday Selections: 22nd October 2023

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First winner in roughly two months yesterday (with seven weeks break in between, though). And it couldn’t have been a better one. Big Rock demolished the field in the QEII.

I couldn’t quite believe the performance. As he established an eight lengths lead….. he didn’t tire and romped home in spectacular fashion.

The other jockeys seemed asleep on the wheel, on the other hand. How could they all gift this highly talented colt such a huge, uncontested lead?

It was a superb run by Swingalong in the Champions Sprint. She finished a gallant 4th, outran her odds and briefly looked like she may even win. Cant complain.

…….

3.20 Leopardstown: Listed Trigo Stakes, 10f

The two top-rated horses Lafayette and Sprewell are clearly the horses who should fight this out. They stand out in terms of their achievements this year.

Lafayette has been consistent for the most part this year, enjoys soft ground, stays the trip and will find this opposition a bit easier. Nonetheless, there’s an argument to be made that he’s been seen to best effect away from Leopardstown.

The opposite is true for Sprewell. He showed a lot of promise early in the season when he improved from a winning reappearance at Naas to land the Derby Trial here at Leopardstown in fine style as he denied solid yardstick Up And Under.

I wrote before how much I loved his Epsom Derby run, even though it’s probably fair to say Sprewell didn’t put his talent to best effect in two subsequent races.

In saying that, there’re solid reasons for that. For one, he raced against hot opposition in the Irish Derby and then in the Irish Champion Stakes. He also, it seems pretty clear now, prefers a softer going.

Leopardstown, 10 furlongs and plenty of give in the ground will suit today. Sprewell should enjoy this significant drop in class as well. He deserves his chance today heading the field as the favourite in my mind.

I’m happy I got my full stake matched over night at a touch over 5/2 on various exchanges, though that is rapidly disappearing and I probably would find anything below 2/1 too short for me personally, just as a side note.

10pts win – Sprewell @ 5/2