Tag Archives: Stakes

Royal Ascot 2023 – Eyecatchers

Royal Ascot 2023 saw many memorable performances, in victory as in defeat. Here’s a list of horses that caught my eye during the last week at Royal Ascot.

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Tuesday, 20/06/2023

2.30 – Queen Anne Stakes:

Clearly the best finishing here was favourite Inspiral. She was fastest through the last five furlongs but was at a disadvantage having to come from well off the pace with a run on the wide outside of the field, away from the pace and possibly without cover much earlier than ideal.

She is a suspect starter, a tricky individual, but obviously top-class. She was the best horse in the race and simply unfortunate the way the race developed.

Whether she can back up this performance remains to be seen. She ran a 100+ speed rating here, for the second time in her career.

Inspiral looks to have the measure of the older milers but remains tactically vulnerable to any more straightforward and prominently ridden horse in a race where the pace isn’t red hot, as well as once she meets the Classic generation.

The biggest eyecatcher to note for the future was Pogo, especially once he drops down in trip. He was certainly ridden with the aim to preserve his limited stamina over the stiff Ascot mile.

He had too much to do from the rear of the field but the way he made serious progress on the far side, quickening into the fastest part of the race, away from the pace as well, even more disadvantaged than Inspiral perhaps, was seriously impressive.

He couldn’t keep up the effort over the stiff final furlong. This performance demonstrated he’s still in strong form, though. He may be underestimated when he drops to a more suitable trip the next time as his recent form reads poorly on paper.

Race Replay

3.40 – King’s Stand Stakes:

The lower to middle drawn horses dominated. In that context Anaf’s effort for third is noteworthy. I’d be not too sure whether he’s able to repeat such huge performance, though. He’s not really shown to belong in this class and his effort petered out quickly in the final half furlong.

Even more impressive was Twilight Call. Badly squeezed right after the start, he found himself at the rear of the field and gave ground away early on when switching to the far side.

He didn’t get a run until very late, in fact only got into the clear just over half a furlong from home, yet finished the joint fastest final furlong split and second best for the last four furlongs.

A strong pace, minimum trip and decent to fast ground are his optimum. This was a clear return to form and he’ll be dangerous in the right conditions. Though, he’s far from a prolific winner, given that he needs everything to fall right.

Race Replay

4.20 – St James’s Palace Stakes:

Paddington was in a different league to the rest. He’s quickly proving himself to be the best of the three-year-old milers. He has the speed and the stamina and didn’t get an ideal trip. Still won easily.

Clear second best in the race was Charyn, I believe. The only one who could somewhat make an impression in the home straight and ran home the fastest final furlong, even though “fast” was relative in this case.

He came from off the pace, which wasn’t ideal, and as a consequence turned wide for a challenge. Class probably got him through the finish more so than stamina.

I’m not sold on his stamina for a properly run mile. He was eyecatching at the Curragh as well in the Irish 2000 Guineas, though that wasn’t a fast race.

A drop to 7 furlongs looks ideal. With a solid pace and decent ground he could be an intriguing runner. Has an entry for the 7f Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh next month.

Race Replay

5.35 – Wolferton Stakes:

The best horse won on the day. Royal Champion gave ground away all the time, yet that ensured he was in the right position when it mattered most. He can win a Group race.

So may be Checkandchallenge. He’s already a Group 3 winner, and often runs consistently well, although equally as consistently found out for class in Group 2 level and above.

He was restrained from a very wide draw here, had a lot to do as he entered the home straight but ran home extremely well. In fact, he finished the last four furlongs the best in his first attempt over 10 furlongs.

On pedigree he has scope to stretch out and could be interesting back in Listed or Group 3 class over this trip. He’s yet to impress on speed ratings, but I feel in the right race (could also be a strongly run mile) he could finally run to something significant. This performance was hugely encouraging.

So was King Of Conquest. He was caught wide early from his draw, before settling at the back of the field. He also had a lot to do from there as he turned wide to run home strongly, without getting beaten up late.

He’s still progressive, achieved a career-best speed rating here and deserves a crack at a Group 3 or perhaps even one of the lesser Group 2 races over this trip.

Race Replay

Thursday, 22/06/2023

3.05 – King George V Stakes:

Bertinelli had a wide draw and top weight to overcome. He was taken off his feet during the frantic early fractions but made strong progress from 4f out as he turned wide, touched a rival as they entered the straight and ran home strongly.

He achieved a 104 speed rating. That is Group class and would give him a shot at a Group 1 even. I have maintained my belief in his class for a long time and am somewhat surprised that we saw him here and not in the Irish Derby.

He stays well and could go up in trip as well, which may be less competitive. The Leger or perhaps Irish version for that matter, would be intriguing.

Land Legend is the other horse who made a huge impression. He was slowly away yet again, and had a lot to catch up early on. After the first two furlongs he was then quicker through the next part of the race than those that finished in the placings.

He was stuck behind a wall in the home straight, though, until 2f out as he quickened nicely, as one of the few actually able to quicken, before getting badly short of room at the final furlong marker again.

Slowly away in nearly all his starts, he gives the field often a head-start. Nonetheless, if he could somehow manager to get better out, he’d be well handicapped off his mark and may have options beyond Handicaps as well.

Race Replay

5.00 – Britannia Stakes:

The two early leaders on the far side make appeal for the future for different reasons. Quick out of the gate and doing way too much too soon, especially in the first two furlongs, was Forca Timao.

He faded badly, as one would expect. The drop to a mile didn’t yield in a return to form, seemingly. Though, he strikes me as oddly campaigned. He ran a huge race in a slowly run Gold Cup Heritage handicap at Newbury, but doesn’t look like one who truly stays that trip.

He may stretch out well to a mile, ultimately, but a drop to 7 furlongs would be most intriguing. He may offer some upside then, especially if the handicapper is kind and drops him below 90.

If the handicapper is kind to Thunder Ball and doesn’t raise him too much, if at all, for his 3l beaten 4th place he remains an intriguing runner as well.

Despite helping to push that hot early pace, he was there in front for a long time, fighting strongly and showing excellent attitude.

He was very impressive in a Novice Stakes in May and could have more to offer. A drop down to 7 furlongs wouldn’t be a worry at all, may be even ideal.

Race Replay

5.35 – Hampton Court Stakes:

The winner was the best horse in the race and gives this form a strong look. Some of those behind him can be marked up and deserve another chance.

Expolanet is an obvious one. from the #11 draw caught wide early, and for most of the race, he was positioned in midfield, gradually progressing, using more energy in the first half compared to Waipiro.

He turned wide and lost a bit of momentum, which he quickly regained before getting hampered 1.5f from home. He got going again, but that was the moment the winner went through and kicked on. He held on well for 2nd.

A clear run and he finishes perhaps only a lengths behind the strong winner. Didn’t impress on speed ratings yet but caught the eye when unfortunate in a hot race at Newbury.

Bolster ran in the same colours. He ran green in and keenly in the early part, jumped to his right, gave the eventual winner a bump.

Was closer to the pace than most that finished ahead of him. Made good progress upon entering the straight, but received a bad bump by the shifting front-runner 2f out. Got going again, but short of room 1f out once again.

Lightly raced and definitely more to come. Not sure he wants further and on pedigree a drop to a mile wouldn’t look like a bad thing either, perhaps.

Race Replay

Friday, 23/06/2023

3.40 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes:

Danny Tudhope gave Live Your Dream and inspired ride from the front, quickly overcoming the wide draw. He did way too much in the first half of the race and had no business finishing so well.

A huge run, he obviously has stamina in abundance but also tactical speed as was on evidence here. He achieved a superb 101 speed rating and he warrants a step up into pattern class.

Has only entries in Handicap company and that may be a lot tougher than so some of the Listed or Group 3 contest even.

The widest draw wasn’t a help for Moracana who was slowly away, perhaps by design. She settled in rear, trailing, and having a lot to do turning for home. She made good progress but behind a wall of horses and repeatedly short of room, until switched to the wide outside inside the final furlong for a strong finish.

She obviously stays strongly, could move up in trip, but perhaps 12 furlongs with a lot of pace are ideal. She could land another of these big handicaps with a better draw, but also up to Listed level and not out of it in a Group 3 possibly.

Race Replay

Saturday, 24/06/2023

4.20 – Hardwicke Stakes:

The “rating horse” won. Maybe Pyledriver isn’t quite the old force anymore but he’s still very good after his long absence. The form looks strong on speed ratings and the runner-up enhanced his credentials significantly in my view.

West Wind Blows took over the lead after the first furlong and from there on set a red hot pace for the first half of the race, especially his third furlong was super hot, and possibly cost him in the finish.

He was slightly hampered by the winner in the closing stages, but in truth had little more to give in the home straight. This should be good form, he ran to a super 103 speed rating, confirming the huge impression he made at Longchamp prior, where he ran to 105.

He gets the trip, just. Over 10 furlongs where he can dominate he’s probably even more dangerous. The Eclipse is an option, possibly even a race like the Irish Champion Stakes could be of real interest.

Race Replay

5.00 – Wokingham Stakes:

Albasheer made up a gigantic amount of ground from last position 2f out to finish like a train in the final furlong. He was slowly into stride, despite first-time blinkers. A tricky sort, and hard to trust, althoug talented when he can put it all together.

Khanjar travelled strongly to the two furlong marker, but got carried over by the eventual winner and as a consequence was a bit short of room, lost his momentum and never found it back. He ran home nicely under an easy ride, though.

He caught the eye prior at Hamilton and looks ready to land a big one. But a tricky sort who can make life difficult for himself, as he was a bit slowly away here as well.

Race Replay

5.35 – Golden Gates Stakes:

Jim Bolger’s only runner during the week was a significant eyecatcher for the fact that the lightly raced colt was still winless after four starts, but did well in hot company and was well backed on the day.

Cuban Dawn had a wide draw and didn’t really settle too well, as he seemed raw and green at the back of the field, at times outpaced, wandering around as well.

He made good progress from 3f out but found himself short of room over 1f out and didn’t get a hard time to run home eventually.

He colt is under the Australian ownership of the Waterhouse/Bolt yard, with the aim to get him over to Australia after this season, as they purchased him for about £300k and have advertised him as one with significant upside.

He was thrown into the deep end on debut in a listed race, when far from disgraced 4th behind Paddington. Placed in two more hot maiden races, his opening mark of 91 looks exploitable.

I think he could drop back to a mile when he has an entry during Irish Derby weekend, if there’s pace.

Race Replay

Saturday Selections: 18th June 2022

5.35 Ascot: Class 2 Golden Gates Stakes, 1m 2f

I really like the two Gosden horses, but given the prices have to side with Aldous Huxley who I feel can defy top weight with the excellent assistance of 5lb claiming Benoit De La Sayette in the saddle.

Overcoming a mark of 101 in such a competitive Handicap isn’t an easy task. But I still feel Aldous Huxley has much more to offer than what he has shown to date; he should be a Group class horse in my view.

I’m a keen follower since his brilliant Kempton debut earlier this year when he overcame greenness and still ran to topspeed 90. Since then he was beaten behind New London, and a close runner-up in the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood most recently.

The drop back to 10 furlongs will suit. The #1 draw will provide every opportunity to go forward and be in a good position turning for home. He will stay, no question about that and I’m not too worried about the fast ground either.

10pts win – Aldous Huxley @ 10.5

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4.54 Ayr: Classified Stakes, 1m 2f

Highlight Reel was disappointing on Tuesday when he got going too late, although some of that had to do with how the race developed for him. This today looks easier, while the step up to 10 furlongs isn’t an issue.

His last win came over this sort of trip 12 months ago and those latest runs suggested it’s what’s possibly required these days. He ran with plenty of credit a number of times lately, proving wellbeing and form.

I felt he outran his price tag two back at Redcar over 10 furlongs in a pretty hot contest for the low grade, he also caught the eye at Wetherby.

Ideally the ground would dry out with no soft in the description. Not sure how likely that is. He acts on soft, but probably is best on faster surfaces. But I only see Oot Ma Way as a proper danger in this field.

10pts win – Highlight Reel @ 10.5

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5.18 Lingfield: Class 6 Classified Stakes, 1m

Surrey Territories is one I am interested in since his strong Kempton third place at the end of March. e was the only one able to finish from off the pace. He’s clearly capable of winning a race but need things to fall right.

He wasn’t disgraced in his next two starts; perhaps a shade unlucky at Wolverhampton, although the trip maybe stretching his stamina, too. Last time out he had a tough assignment on the weights in a Claimer.

This Classified Stakes is easier and quite a poor race. Less than a handful of horses give the impression of serious contenders. With a fine 7lb claimer on board and his 3yo weight allowance Surrey Territories looks to have a major shout.

The concern is the fact he will have to come from off the pace. If there is no pace on, which is far from impossible, he’ll struggle. It’s a risk I’m prepared to take because I also can see him flying home late to win.

10pts win – Surrey Territories @ 5/1

King George 2021

The 2021 edition of the King George has something special in store for us racing fans. The best of the older horses versus a strong classic generation.

Naturally all eyes are on Derby winner Adayar. He romped home at Epsom in stunning fashion. Was that a real performance? The form has been franked through third placed Hurricane Lane, who won races of the highest order in the meantime.

It was a strange race, nonetheless. The aforementioned Hurricane Lane lost a shoe, the favourite Bolshoi Ballet completely misfired and the runner-up was a maiden who was subsequently trounced in the Irish Derby.

Lone Eagle, second in the Irish Derby, is the other 3-year-old in the field. He got first run on his rivals at the Curragh and with two furlongs to go looked like to have won the race. Only in the dying strides was he caught by a fast finishing Hurricane Lane.

It was a thrilling finish and Lone Eagle didn’t lose anything in defeat. In fact, he achieved a 113 topspeed rating, which isn’t far behind the 116 rating Adayar received for his Derby victory. Topspeed-wise those are the two highest ratings on offer in the King George field.

The older generation is clearly lead by Love. The winner of the 1000 Guineas, English Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks last year, and the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes on her seasonal reappearance last month, she’s also joint top-rated, together with Mishriff.

Love won’t mind the the step up to the 1m 4f trip. In fact, her career -best performance was the 2020 Oaks success. Mishriff on the other hand, although a winner of the Sheema Classic earlier this year, may be at his best over shorter distances.

He has to give weight away too. However, Mishriff ran with plenty of credit in the Coral Eclipse where he was third behind brilliant St Mark’s Basilica coming off a break. He should be in perfect shape today.

The ground won’t turn soft enough to provide the sort of deep conditions Wonderful Tonight prefers. She is a multiple Group 1 winner though, and looked in excellent form when landing the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot last month, so can’t be taken lightly, regardless.

Broome was second behind Wonderful Tonight at Ascot. He has since won the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. He enjoyed the run of the race, though, and I think over 1m 4f he has plenty to find with the market principles.

Conclusion:
I strongly fancy the classic generation to get the better of their elders. That says I’m not fully sure if If trust Adayar’s Derby performance. However, Lone Eagle’s Irish Derby performance appears rock solid. He should be right up with the pace once more and could be able to hold on this time. Hence at prices around 6/1 I’ll go with Loyal Eagle to win it for Frankie and Martyn Meade.

…………

3:15 York: York Stakes, Group 2

The best form on paper belongs to Armory. The four-year-old drops in class after a fine effort at Royal Ascot when third behind stablemate Love in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. He is unbeaten in Group races below top level and has been placed in multiple Group 1’s.

His Royal Ascot performance can possibly be marked up due to the way the race developed, which wasn’t quite ideal for Armory. Consequently, he achieved a career-highest 119 Racingpost Rating. He won really well at Chester on his season reappearance back in May as well.

That means, however, Armory has to give weight away to his rivals. No less than 12lb to exciting 3-year-old Mohaafeth.

This son of Frankel is unbeaten in 2021, having progressed with each and every run. From, winning a Novice contest to a first Handicap, to landing the Listed Newmarket Stakes to bag a Group 3 at Royal Ascot.

His Newmarket victories were visually really impressive. In fact Mohaafeth won the Newmarket Stakes in such taking fashion that he was catapulted near the top of the Epsom Derby market.

The ground turning soft that day ended his Derby dream, but he made up for it weeks later at Royal Ascot. He had to start racing earlier than ideal and hang to the right in the closing stages.

He ran to a101 topspeed rating then, the highest any horse has achieved in the York Stakes field. In anticipation of more improvement to come and the weight he receives from his rivals, Mohaafeth looks certainly the one to beat.

Although, Juan Elcano shouldn’t be entirely dismissed. He has found back to the winning ways having responded to wind op. On the other hand it’s hard to see Montatham – likely employed as Mohaafeth’s pacemaker – or the other outsider Bangkok getting involved.

Conclusion:
As long as there isn’t any sufficient amount of rain it’s hard to look past the progressive Mohaafeth. He has things in his favour and looks the sort to improve again.

Friday Selections: October, 11th 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile False Rail

3.35 Newmarket: G1 Bet365 Fillies’ Mile, 1m

Intriguing contest, but possibly a weak one without a real star? For all what the market principles have achieved form wise, they haven’t run particularly fast yet.

Neither Love nor Cayenne Pepper have come near at least a 90 topspeed rating, despite having ample opportunity. You may give recent 9 lengths winner Quadrilateral the benefit of the doubt, though.

Nonetheless, I feel Powerful Breeze is underestimated in this field. The filly was supplemented after kicking her career off with two impressive runs. A winning debut over 7f here at Newmarket, followed up with an excellent Group 3 success at Doncaster.

That day she ran to a 92 topspeed rating, which is by far the best of what any filly has achieved in this field. There is no reason to doubt its legitimacy, as it was a well run race and Powerful Breeze improved nicely from her debut 87 TS performance.

She looks a filly open to plenty more improvement, being well bred, a March filly and by Iffraay. She gets the trip well, the ground is a slight question mark, given she hasn’t met cut in the ground yet.

I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt on that front, given her dam acted on soft, and Iffraay’s offspring tends to perform well enough also. Certainly if she can run here to the same sort of level – possibly even a little bit better – than in the May Hill this filly has a much better chance than the odds suggest.

Selection:
10pts win – Powerful Breeze @ 7/1 MB

Saturday Selections: June, 1st 2019

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Read my Derby Preview Here

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4.00 Musselburgh: Listed Fillies’ Stakes, 7f

There is not a lot of depth in this race. Favourite Red Starlight is solid, but nothing more. The forecast favourite Indian Blessing has been drifting all day long. I remain interested in the 5-year-old mare nonetheless.

The ground is the main question mark for me. It may be too soft for her, given her best form is on a faster surface. On the other hand she ran well in a Listed contest in France a couple of years ago with cut in the ground.

The trip looks sure to suit, given Indian Blessing is a winner over 7 furlongs – albeit on the All-Weather – and has been placed a couple of times as well.

She is clearly setting the standard in this race as the highest rated individual who is also a Group 3 winner already. Indian Blessing did perform well in a few graded contests in the US last season – so I do hope her poor seasonal reappearance at the Curragh last month will bring her on quite a bit.

If Indian Blessing runs to to form she’s the one to beat, no doubt. So, even though there are a few doubts, at given prices I’m with her.

Selection:
10pts win – Indian Blessing @ 6/1 MB

…….

4.55 Musselburgh: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

Requinto Dawn has dropped to a tasty mark largely due to poor showings this season. However, he ran rather eye-catchingly last time out at Redcar, after dwelling in the starting gates, he finished seemingly with a bit in the tank with the pack without ever getting any serious questions asked by the jockey.

The handicapper has given him a major chance now, taking another 3lb off the mark, which leaves Requinto Dawn a whopping 12lb lower than his last winning mark!

He proved competitive of marks in the high 80’s last summer, so with this recent run appearing as if there’s still some life left, Requinto Dawn could be tremendously well in today, also having the added bonus of a fair 5lb claimer in the saddle.

The ground shouldn’t be an issue. His career highest time-speed rating came on soft going. In fact, the bit of cut in the ground may help to slow down things a little bit and put more emphasis on stamina, which will suit, given Requinto Dawn stays further than the minimum trip.

Selection:
10pts win – Requinto Dawn @ 7.8/1 MB

Good Friday Selections – April, 19th 2019

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As the sun shows up more often these days, the garden becomes a more frequented place to spend time in and the general mood lifts, one could get easily overexcited. I am quite excited, in fact!

It’s not often I do fancy so many horses in a single day; having a handful of bets bears the danger of possibly given in to emotion rather than rationality. Fancying someone doesn’t equal loving someone. So, not every fancy is a quality bet.

I hope I used my head to identify some quality selections for this ‘Super Friday’, regardless. Could be a massive day, could be a brutal day…. we shall see. It’s the long-term that matters, of course. There’re days when it still would be nice to get a reward for the shift put in.

Either way, let’s enjoy the superb ‘Good Friday’ racing!

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3.20 Newcastle: Listed Burradon Stakes, 1m

Before I went to bed last night I was all over Daarik. I loved his last two runs, the sudden turn of foot he produced, his classy pedigree and Jim Crowley’s Newcastle record in spring time – but I was sleepy, so deferred decision.

Good decision! I’m now all over Magic J. Hence I discarded Daarik. The doubts I had over him became too big to punt him at around 7/2:

Physically he doesn’t seem to have improved much over the winter, the fact he started his juvenile season rather early – which makes sense as a February foal – suggests he was potentially precocious last year, though injury prevented him from running during the good months of the year. And he’s done nothing on the clock, despite those two visually impressive victories.

Magic J in contrast – same as Darrik, also with an entry for the 2000 Guineas (both Newmarket & Curragh) – looked physically strong, open for plenty of improvement in his only start last year. He won a poor maiden over 6f at Yarmouth but did that in excellent style.

This colt cost nearly a million US$ as a yearling, which is logical, given his incredibly sexy pedigree. Connections stated he’s been working well at home, see him still as a potential Guineas horse, though the mile is the question mark as he shows plenty of speed.

Pedigree wise the mile looks more than only a possibility. The All-Weather looks also rather certain to suit. This isn’t on the surface a particularly deep Listed race in my mind also.

The one thing against him, beside stamina and fitness questions, is the draw. He may not be ideally drawn on the outside. But Magic J is as good as I believe he could be, he’ll overcome it no bother.

Selection:
10pts win – Magic J @ 9/2 MB

……..

 3.30 Bath: Class 2 Handicap, 1 mile

Not sure whether today is the day, but if he’s given a fair chance I can see Sea Fox outrunning a massive price-tag. The 5-year-old has dropped to a wonderful mark and will act on fast ground as well as stays a mile.

His mark has fallen, and he such a massive long-shot today, because recent performances weren’t up to scratch – on paper at least. One shouldn’t forget he won three times last year of marks of 85 and 89 twice. So, now down to 84, given he also ran to TS ratings of 84 and 86 in the past, suggests he can be weighted to go close.

I rate some of his more recent AW performances higher than credit seems to be given. Even though he finished last and seemed a bit lackluster when last seen at Lingfield, on the clock he finished as good as anyone in the race, and in none of his last five runs was he beaten by more than 3¼.

It’s a long-shot, yes, but if Sea Fix can find back some sort of form, now back on turf, off a handy mark, he’ll be a danger to everyone in this race.

Selection:
10pts win – Sea Fox @ 55/1 MB/PP/Sky

………

3.40 Lingfield: 3 Year Old AW Championships, 6f

First time blinkered and the aid of a perfect draw, this test looks tailor made for Quiet Endeavour, who was running well lately, even though the form book doesn’t quite tell the story how well.

The gelding won four on the track last season and was quite precocious, so there is always a question how that translates into a 3yo season. A disappointing seasonal reappearance aside, his last two runs were excellent.

He attempted to make all on both occasions, but found 7f at Lingfield clearly too far as, while leading the field to the final furlong marker, he ran completely out of gas. He went to France for the Montenica Stakes over 6.5f.

Quiet Endeavour was hurried up early on in order to overcome a wide draw and before the first turn he got the lead. He travelled well, but again, was passed in the final furlong running empty.

The drop to sharp 6f at a speedy track as Lingfield is, will surely help. The blinkers should keep him focused in the closing stages hopefully.

Selection:
10pts win – Quiet Endeavour @ 12/1 Coral

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4.15 Lingfield: AW Middle Distance Champs, 1m 2f 

Taking on the 1/3 favourite doesn’t seem wise but I do it nonetheless. It’s an easy decision as I feel there isn’t as much between Wissahickon and second favourite Matterhorn.

True, Wissahickon couldn’t have been more impressive on the AW this year, matching, at least visually, the impressive Cambridgeshire performance at the end of last season. A 10-8-1 record speaks for itself, anyway.

Matterhorn was nearly equally impressive, posting a 9-6-2 record and five of his last six starts. Excuses can be made for a recent below par effort at Kempton, when he got locked up in a battle for the lead and made way too much too early.

The comparision on the numbers between Matterhorn and Wissahickon is interesting. The later ones best TS rating is 94, with a top RPR of 119 (on the AW), whereas Matterhorn posted a top TS rating of 100 and RPR of 118. Sure, the numbers have to be seen in the right context and there is always the question how relevant career best performances are for the “now”.

However, both horses are still rather low mileage, hence could also improve. Matterhorn, though, had one career run less and also was a late April foal (Wissahickon (February).

That all may not make any difference, but it’s reason enough for me to conclude that the horse I fancy should be shorter in the betting and the short odds-on favourite a little bit bigger than he is right now.

Selection:
10pts win – Matterhorn @ 7/1 MB

………

4.55 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Landing Night may not have won since having a wind surgery in autumn, but he ran consistently well in more than a handful of starts – in fact he was beaten at most by 3¼ lengths in his last seven starts.

Despite some excellent efforts in defeat, Landing Night  has fallen to a mark of 72, which is 5lb below his last AW winning mark. He also ran to a TS rating of 74, a second highest (career high 79) in November – so not too long ago, suggesting he’s well capable of running to- if not a bit better of his current rating.

The now 7-year-old isn’t getting any younger, and he isn’t a frequent winner anyway, so everything needs to fall right. If he can to the form he showed in early winter, though, he’s supremely well handicapped today.

Selection:
10pts win – Landing Night @ 9/1 PP

Keeneland: Europeans have a strong hand

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9.35 Keeneland: First Lady Stakes (Grade 1)

Soft ground makes this quite an unpredictable race but potentially the Europeans are best suited. Aiden O’Brien’s filly Easter is well fancied but I prefer stable mate Outstanding at double the price. When last seen she finished a fine 3rd in a Group 3 behind Irish Oaks runner-up Jack Naylor and Easter when.

She has won on soft ground in the past, so she’ll handle the conditions and with the slow ground probably won’t mind the drop to 1m. A full-sister to Magician, she is obviously well bred, and with lasix used on her again – as when she was a fine 3rd in the Belmont Oaks earlier the year – she could be well able to leave this years form behind.

Outstanding @ 6/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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10.45 Keeneland: Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (Grade 1)

Two horses I have to put up for this race: European raider Kelinni has hardly the credentials to land a Group 1, but with first time lasix, slow ground and top draw, he should be extremely competitive in a race that lacks star quality. He stays much further than the mile trip, but won a 7f Handicap in Ireland when the last time seen, making all that day. Same tactics will be useful here.

The Pizza Man looks underestimated here. He drops in trip, and that may not quite suit, though the slow ground should help as he has a good record in softish conditions. He won the Arlington Million last month, his third success this year. He’s a tough, genuine type. Exactly what you want here.

The Pizza Man @ 10/1 VC – 5pts Win
Kelinni @ 12/1 VC – 5pts Win

Preview: Santa Margarita

Small field at Santa Anita for this Grade 1, without a real outstanding candidate, and in general it looks a rather open renewal. Warren’s Veneda is trading as favourite at the moment after she looked an improved mare over the last number of weeks. She won two on the bounce, most notably her recent success in the Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes. She got the perfect race and ride, trailing the field and making a sweeping move around the home turn to win with a bit of authority. She steps up in trip to 1 1⁄8 miles for the first time, but has a fair chance to stay the additional distance. A couple in this field try this trip for the first time and that adds to the openness of the contest.

The mare I feel is a good deal overpriced is the generally still rather lightly raced Uzziel. She finished runner-up in the Santa Maria, and was fair and square beaten in the end. However she was the one who fared best from the horses up with- or tracking the pace, while the winner and the horses behind her came all from off the pace. The fact that she was able to keep going must give her a fine chance of getting the new trip, as she looked more beaten for speed than anything else. On pedigree, this should suit very well too. That says it is not out of this world that she can turn around the form with Warren’s Veneda. And if she can do that, then she’ll go very close here today.

11.00 Santa Anita: Santa Margarita Invitational (Grade 1)
Uzziel @ 14/1 William Hill – 5pts win