9.35 Keeneland: First Lady Stakes (Grade 1)
Soft ground makes this quite an unpredictable race but potentially the Europeans are best suited. Aiden O’Brien’s filly Easter is well fancied but I prefer stable mate Outstanding at double the price. When last seen she finished a fine 3rd in a Group 3 behind Irish Oaks runner-up Jack Naylor and Easter when.
She has won on soft ground in the past, so she’ll handle the conditions and with the slow ground probably won’t mind the drop to 1m. A full-sister to Magician, she is obviously well bred, and with lasix used on her again – as when she was a fine 3rd in the Belmont Oaks earlier the year – she could be well able to leave this years form behind.
Outstanding @ 6/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
10.45 Keeneland: Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (Grade 1)
Two horses I have to put up for this race: European raider Kelinni has hardly the credentials to land a Group 1, but with first time lasix, slow ground and top draw, he should be extremely competitive in a race that lacks star quality. He stays much further than the mile trip, but won a 7f Handicap in Ireland when the last time seen, making all that day. Same tactics will be useful here.
The Pizza Man looks underestimated here. He drops in trip, and that may not quite suit, though the slow ground should help as he has a good record in softish conditions. He won the Arlington Million last month, his third success this year. He’s a tough, genuine type. Exactly what you want here.
The Pizza Man @ 10/1 VC – 5pts Win
Kelinni @ 12/1 VC – 5pts Win