Tag Archives: Sprint

Betting

Thursday Selections: January 25th, 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

2.10 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

From top draw start Archimedes in this contest over the minimum trip tomorrow. To be drawn low over this CD is a massive advantage as pointed out on this blog several times in the past; drawn in 1 is the cherry on the cake, so to speak.

Archimedes is for many reasons, not only the positive draw, and intriguing individual. For one, he is a course and distance winner – last January he won this exact race off 3lb higher than his current handicap rating. He ran to a whopping RPR of 70 that day (in the context of his official rating).

He backed this up later in the year on turf at Bath on fast ground over 5f, when winning off the same mark running to a similar RPR.

Problems started soon after. He missed plenty of assignments and ran mostly poorly. An issue with his wind was identified and hopefully rectified through a wind OP in November. He returns to the track after a near 100 day long break for his first run after the OP.

Obviously this procedure might not work as hoped, however, given the fact he won this very same race last year, is dangerously well handicapped and has a top draw, in combination one would hope he can return to some sort of last seasons form which would see Archimedes go close.

Selection:
10pts win – Archimedes @ 12/1 William Hill

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3.55 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

Open contest with no standout, however Zorovan, despite tumbling odds, looks still a tasty option.

The 5-year old is a course and distance winner and finished a fine 2nd in a class 4 Handicap over CD subsequently of a mark off 77. Both runs awarded him RPR’s of 81 and 85 and he followed up with a success on turf of a handicap mark off 80 some weeks later.

Racing in strong handicaps of high marks, he couldn’t quite continue to ride the wave of success and hasn’t been in the money ever since.

After a half-year long break he reappeared at Newcastle in December, probably needed the run badly when well beaten. He did a bit better the next time at Chelmsford in a deep race, tiring late.

A return to this course and distance as well as a further 3lb drop in the weights should see Zorovan in much better light, though. It’s Keith Dalgleish’s only runner on the card and a fair 3lb claimer is booked for the ride – a big run is expected here, I feel.

Selection:
10pts win – Zorovan @ 13/2 PP

United Kingdom

King Of Rooks can thrive over 6 furlongs

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3.10 York: Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2), 6f

I’m prepared to give King Of Rooks another chance prove his class. He looked special when winning at Newbury and subsequently the National Stakes at Sandown, though things didn’t go quite his way the last two times. But a step up to 6f may well suit, and so should be York’s flat sprint course. He looks overpriced in this field.

King Of Rooks @ 11/2 William Hill – 5pts Win

Ireland

Kimbay’s A Big Price In Tipperary Sprint!

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6.00 Tipperary: Handicap (3yo), 5f

This is a competitive sprint Handicap where cases can be made aplenty. Top weight My Good Brother may struggle of a mark off 96 on ground which is much softer than ideal. 93 rated Zalty could well have a big say, though, if he is race fit and can handle the drop to the minimum trip. His close runner-up effort in a tough Premier Handicap over 6f at the Curragh when last seen almost seven month ago gives him a prime chance.

Ger Lyons’ Joe Eile took advantage off a slipping mark last month when landing a sprint Handicap at Navan. Seven pounds up for this success makes life tougher now. In Salutem was an eye-catching second that day and followed up with another strong performance at the Curragh when not having the run of the race. He probably need things to fall right for him to win off his current mark but is an obvious contender nonetheless.

Prince Connoisseur was progressive last season and may have still more to offer. Improvement has to come if he wants to compete in this race. Back from a seasonal break, fitness is a question mark. Lady Mega only got a run late at Navan last month and has form in her book suggesting she has a prime chance today with additional five pound claim from her jockey. Probably not quite ideal is the softish ground, though.

I’m most interested in Kimbay – again. I was already intrigued by her when she kicked off her new campaign last month. Then in a competitive 6f Handicap, she was up with the pace, travelled strongly and just got tired in the closing stages. She is expected to come on for the run and the drop to 5f should definitely suit – she is still unbeaten over this trip.

Still not too many miles on the clock for a five year old, Kimbay can race off a featherweight here once again and judged on her steady progress last year, she may be well handicapped, as she was dropped a pound since her last run. She won four races and been only beaten by a head in the other two starts in 2014 – so there is every chance for more to come. A career best is required today, though, as she is up by 6lb for last success at Dundalk in December when she won a very competitive 5f sprint – this form worked out very well.

Kimbay @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Ireland

Kimbay can exploit featherweight!

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2.15 Curragh: Handicap, 6 furlongs

There isn’t much between the first two in the betting, In Salutem and Captain Cullen. They finished close to each other in a 5f sprint at Navan recently and neither of them will mind the additional furlong today. It’s really hard to split them on that particular form. That says both should be thereabouts but don’t appeal to me in terms of price. I feel the odds reflect their chances in fair way.

I liked Russian Soul’s gutsy performance at Cork only two days ago. He’ll be better for the step up in trip and was a bit unlucky in his penultimate run. Though he’ll need to bring his absolute A-game to the Curragh today in order to overcome a monstrous weight of 10 stone four!

The value in this field lies with Kimbay in my mind. Still not too many miles on the clock for a five year old, she can race off a featherweight and might be well in on the weights judged on her progressive last season. She won four races and been only beaten by a head in the other two starts that year. She is up by 7lb for her final appearance at Dundalk in December when she won a very competitive 5f sprint. This form worked out very well though, which means she could still be well handicapped.

Kimbay has done well as a fresh horse in the past and while this here represents a significant step up in class, the conditions should suit down to the grounds. At 8/1 she looks overpriced in my eyes, given her profile.

Kimbay @ 8/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Blithe Spirit is bound to improve

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

3.10 Chester: Handicap (Class 2, 5f)

A very competitive Sprint Handicap that should be fast and furious. Plenty of pace in it and the rain softened ground will make it a tough finish. One of those who’ll be bang there is B Fifty Two. He’s two from two at Chester, goes well on softish ground, can win over five as well as six furlongs and has the benefit of a good draw. Slight downside is the current handicap mark. It looks still a bit high. He won off 96 here over 6f last season but couldn’t confirm this performance in subsequent starts.

The only filly in the race, Blithe Spirit, must have a huge chance. She is very speedy but can win over six furlongs too. She loves it soft and she has been successful in three from six outings at Chester. She is only 3lb higher than when winning at this meeting last year and her performance on her seasonal reappearance must rate a strong piece of form. She was only beaten by 109 rated Spinatrix while giving 14lb away to the favourite on ratings. The third of the race has won subsequently. Expect Blithe Spirit to come on a bit for the run.

From the bottom of the weight scale it is Come On Dave who’ll have plenty of supporters here. He won well on the All-Weather and looks on a good turf mark right now, given the fact that he is 2lb lower than when winning at Chelmsford. He has pole position drawn in 1 and will not hesitate to go on. He has to show that he can translate his AW form now to turf though as he struggled off lower in lesser races last season.

Veteran Noble Storm isn’t entirely out of this while Ballesteros looks to be on a very good mark if he could find somehow back to his former best. Piazon is only 2lb above his last winning mark and likes it soft, but has to improve a bit to be competitive here. Lexi’s Hero goes well at Chester but may find the minimum trip a bit too sharp these days.

From a handicapping point of view I believe the filly comes out on top. She has room for improvement, should improve for her recent outing as she did last year too when she scored over CD. She won impressively off only 3lb lower but ran in her seasonal reappearance probably to something like 94 I reckon. Conditions are in her favour here and the draw no problem – she looks a big price at 5/1.

Blithe Spirit @ 5/1 Betfred – 5pts win

Ireland

Eisenhower The Dark Horse

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Naas

With the rain clouds hanging over Leinster currently, it’s not quite clear how the ground end up tomorrow night. this unclear situation makes this race an intriguing contest. There were some showers here today but still plenty of sunshine and I would certainly hope for pretty much the same tomorrow which would mean we have something like good to yielding, or yielding at worst ground wise I would imagine.

Even that would probably count against short favourite Anthem Alexander. She really needs it fast and may not be knocked over here anyway as bigger fruits are up for grabs sooner rather or later. Any rain will be appreciated by veteran sprinter Maarek of course. He used to do well as a fresh horse and 5f is his trip, but maybe it won’t be quite as soft enough for him? He also seems to start to regress last season. Not to forget he also has to give weight away to all his rivals here.

Regressing – that can’t be said about improving Great Minds. A shade unlucky on his seasonal reappearance at the Curragh, he made subsequently no mistake at Cork in Listed company. He drops slightly in trip and it isn’t as soft as he would like it too. On the basis of that he may be opposable, but he’s an exciting up and coming sprinter, so has to be in with a big chance.

Ger Lyons lightly raced filly Ainippe could be anything. She won a listed race over 5f last season and is Group 3 placed. Ground is a worry though. All her form comes on fast ground. Richard Hannon travelles over with Musical Comedy. Surely not only for the lovely green grass. Drops to the minimum trip has to work, which remains to be seen if it does. Ground will be fine for him.

Three year old filly Dikta Del Mar makes her Ireland debut after a decent juvenile campaign in France. She has plenty of soft ground form and could be anything. Jamesie is hard to fancy over this trip. It probably will be a bit too sharp. he may prefers a quicker surface too.

Aiden O’Brien’s lightly raced Eisenhower is the dark horse. This three year old colt looks big and scopey. He was green on his debut earlier this month, dropped then to 5f to win a maiden at Cork. He still looked like an inexperienced individual with plenty to learn but surely will have done so in that race. He is actually bred for further but showed plenty of speed and is a half-brother to a French sprinter who was Listed placed.

As a War front son he probably wouldn’t want it too soft but seemed to act perfectly on yielding at Gowran Park. Interestingly he has an entry for the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. So connections must clearly believe he is quick enough. Plenty of improvement to come from this well bred individual, and while I usually find it hard for three year old sprinters against older hoses, he looks nice and big and may make the weight he receives from his rivals really count here.

7.10 Naas: Woodlands Stakes (listed)
Eisenhower @ 10/1 Bet365 – 5pts win

Ireland

Master’s Golden Opportunity

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3.20 Curragh: Handicap, 6f (3YO plus) 

I suspect that Master Speaker won’t ever find a better chance to win a race than this. A usually solid, competitive runner, he won only once in 14 starts, and that on the All,Weather, albeit placed in seven more races. Mainly in hot Handicaps of marks around 90 plus. He’s down to a career lowest mark now, the same as when finishing a fine second behind Bubbly Bellini in a very competitive 6f Handicap here at the Curragh last month. That particular piece of form looks strong and works already out with a subsequent winner.

Master Speaker drops into a much lesser race here, can race off the same mark over the same CD with ground conditions to suit – he looks a huge price to my eyes. Main danger is in form Oor Jock, who travelled like the winner at Leopardstown recently, but found the additional furlong the deal breaker. His Curragh record is dismal though.

Master Speaker @ 6/1 Coral – 5pts win

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4.20 Curragh: Alleged Stakes (Listed) 

Questions marks over almost every horse in this renewal of the Alleged Stakes. Former Dewhurst winner Parish Hall was beaten in this very same race in exact same conditions as favourite last year. That time it was his seasonal reappearance, this season he has already a race under his belt, then beaten odds-on at Dundalk by an 88 rated individual. He looks vulnerable here yet again. But to whom?

Well, the 7/4 favourite Massinga makes plenty of appeal. Trained by red hot Dermot Weld, lightly raced, recent Listed race winner. She ticks plenty of the right boxes. I’m wondering if the drop in trip is what she really wants, though? She stayed easily 12f on bottomless ground a fortnight ago. Maybe, she is fine as she has form over shorter as well. Says she is still a short price and I’m too overwhelmed.

There aren’t too many alternatives, on the other side. Can you fancy one time Derby fancy Geoffrey Chaucer? Not really. He’s lightly raced and hasn’t been seen since finishing last in the Derby. But his last win dates back to September 2013…. over 1m! In-form Aussie Valentine should give a good account. But the drying ground could be against her I feel. Loch Garman was a smart individual…. 2 years ago. God knows what to expect from him after 686 days off the track.

A chance is taken on Canadian filly On Location. She is extremely well bred and won a maiden at Dundalk earlier this month in good style, despite being in season. I understand she’s been covered by Dawn Approach since then and the trainer is pretty sweet on her. Ground shouldn’t be too much of a problem as we may end up with something like good to yielding I suspect.

The step up to 10f should be suitable, as on pedigree she has it. A daughter of Dubai World Cup winner Street Cry, out of a multiple Stakes races winning mare of up to 12f – she may be rushed into this here, but has clearly talent and may be able to spring a surprise, which in fact wouldn’t be that much of a surprise.

On Location @ 25/1 Paddy Power – 5pts win

United Kingdom

Preview – Fred Darling Stakes

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I loved Tiggy Wiggy last year – a real speedball! One has to wonder though: Can she still improve? And does she actually stay beyond six furlongs? On pedigree I’d say probably no, she won’t last further than 6f. The visual impression of her races also clearly indicates that she is all speed – The 7f trip however is where stamina starts to kick in. Says, I feel on her seasonal reappearance over this trip she is opposable.

But who is the filly to beat her? The Kempton winner Jellicle Ball was very impressive on her debut. She may well be up for. Trip is probably fine, but I don’t really like her pedigree. The one that caught my eye is Redstart, though. Sh was unlucky on debut not to win when she was probably a bit surprised when the eventual winner cam late staying on out of nowhere. This form has been franked subsequently, so is one to take seriously.

She made amends with a dominant performance at Kempton subsequently. Probably not a particularly strong maiden, but she looked good. Redstart is entitled to improve a good bit now as a three year old, and probably she’ll be better over further in time. Ground is fine today, however, and she deserves a fair crack here. For a tasty price, I think she is the one who could take advantage if the hot favourite fades late.

Redstart @ 14/1 Sportingbet – 5pts win

United Kingdom

Boom The Groom Back With A Bang On Turf?

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Newbury racecourse

Okay, I know one shouldn’t do this, but hey, I’m only human, right? I have to admit 1f out I was counting my cash as Greatest Journey loomed large on the outside in the Tattersalls Millions and I would have thought he will easily outstay Cape Clear Island….. I was wrong. A close 2nd was all he got in the end.

Moheet’s bubble burst. Quite badly in the Craven Stakes. Backed off the boards beforehand but didn’t show anything that would have warranted the hype (which I wanted to believe as well). Hail The Hero didn’t quite get a clear run on the inside, though is not up to this standard. Says off his current mark of 87 I’d think he could be still well in if back in Handicap company….

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3.55 Newbury: Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2)

A very tight Sprint Handicap without the one obvious candidate. It’s all to play for here and I feel that the first two in the betting are definitely skinny prices and therefore to take on. No doubt, Lucky Beggar is a fine sprinter and dropping down into Handicap company after a fair, though not sparkling effort in a very hot Listed contest over 6f at Doncaster, gives him a chance to be competitive. Though he also drops in trip, and this combination of minimum distance plus quick ground looks not quite ideal.

Robot Boy was a creditable third in the Borderlescott Sprint Trophy two weeks ago and should strip fitter. Ground and trip is fine and he has some good form to his name, though his last win came five starts ago off 11lb lower. Seven year old Steps has to give plenty of weight away and may be better suited with a bit of cut in the ground. Normal Equilibrium has to follow-up his recent Chelmsford success under a penalty. His win record doesn’t inspire too much confidence.

As a juvenile Group 2 winner, but now a four year old, Green Door hasn’t won since his big day in autumn 2013. With a dropping mark it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him going close, but hard to know what to expect. Veteran Noble Storm is hard to fancy these days off a high enough mark.

Leaves us with Boom The Groom. He was a fine juvenile in Ireland but has really taken off since moving to the UK. He really excelled on the All-Weather and has won three races in the last four month. Not to forget he has been placed a dozen of times in good races. He won a Handicap off 97 and was a fine 3rd in a hot Listed race subsequently.

He wasn’t disgraced in the AW Championships Sprint either, given that he finished behind some higher rated individuals. Back on turf now, the quick ground should suit, so does the trip. His mark looks fair and he deserves his chance in this race. He may well improve again and looks the value in this race.

Boom The Groom @ 10/1 PP – 5pts win

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6.10 Bath: Lansdown Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)

I feel this five furlong sprint evolves around the two top rated older horses. I tend to believe that it is not easy for three year olds to compete with seasoned older horses in sprint races, particularly not at this stage of the season. As for the other older horses: They have an awful lot to find on the ratings.

The consistent Demora is the favourite to land this race and her record as well as top rating means she has a top chance here. She is ground independent and has strong form on a quick surface, which is what is expected at Bath. Her record fresh is excellent and while she hasn’t won in her last five starts, she ran more often than not strong races.

She is entitled to go really close, but considering her short price, I feel there isn’t much between her and most feared rival Milly’s Gift, who makes more appeal from a betting perspective.

The five year old mare Milly’s Gift has been progressive over the last two season. She won two races last year in fine style, and particularly on her most recent success, which was her penultimate start last season, she looked to have still a bit in hand. That says she didn’t enjoy the run of the race subsequently at Ascot but finished a fine third, which makes me believe she is clearly up to her current rating, if not even a bit better, and that makes her a closely matched rival with Demora.

She was a bit unlucky in a couple of big Handicaps at Ascot last year, where she also shares form with Demora and actually beat her. She probably should have won most certainly the Class 2 Herritage Handicap at Ascot in July.

On balance she may have a bit to find with the favourite on the ratings, but effectively looks as good as Demora and has done well as a fresh horse in the past. Milly’s Gift has also winning form at Bath. In my mind she looks overpriced.

Milly’s Gift @ 5/1 Coral – 5pts win

Ireland

Preview – Cork Stakes

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Cork Racecourse

Despite some lovely sunshine over the Easter weekend, the ground at Cork remains soft. Interestingly, most runners in the 6 furlongs Cork Stakes are actually advantaged by these conditions. That should ensure that we have quite an intriguing contest on our hands.

The mare Aetna deserves utmost respect and is awell  deserved favourite. She won a Listed contest on bottomless ground at Doncaster when seen the last time five month ago. She has done well as a fresh horse in the past and sets a very fair standard here for all the right reasons. That says she is short enough in the betting, though,  and there’re some interesting alternatives.

Gathering Power has won only twice in seventeen starts throughout her career so far, but she loves the mud and ran with credit in some hot races last season. She can go close. Last years Cork Stakes winner An Saighdiur isn’t getting any younger and hasn’t shown too much since this last win, but he gets his conditions and has a recent run to his name, so must clearly enter calculations.

Jim Bolger’s lightly raced Flight Risk looks up against it dropping down to six furlongs, while Big Time was once a smart juvenile but has to overcome a long absence and was disappointing in his two starts last season. Reverted to sprinting may help, though. Veteran Bold Thady Quill won this very same race two years ago but hasn’t been in any sort of form in most of his last starts. He loves the mud but this is a strong renewal and he may find it beyond him at this stage of his career.

Without a shadow of a doubt the most intriguing runner is the lightly raced Great Minds. Already a five year old, he has seen very little racing, but was highly progressive in his two starts last year. He won two big Curragh Handicaps over six furlongs and showed a preference for cut in the ground. On his seasonal reappearance last week in a hot sprint Handicap, he didn’t get the clearest of runs but finished with promise. Up in class again, he could still improve and most importantly improve past his rivals in this race. With conditions sure to suit, he should go well and looks a very big price.

3.30 Cork: Cork Stakes (listed)
Great Minds @ 8/1 Paddy Power – 5pts win