Tag Archives: Southwell

Betting

All-Weather Tuesday Selections: 14th March 2023

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Candy Warhol was seriously well backed on Monday, sadly she refused to settle and was keen for the majority of the race. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away.

Perhaps she needs some headgear. I wouldn’t lose hope quite yet and may be prepared to give her another chance next time.

All eyes will be on Cheltenham on Tuesday. I’ll settle in front of the TV with a good coffee and enjoy the races. But won’t be getting involved from a betting perspective.

Yes, I have a few fancies. But ultimately nothing strong enough to suggest it would be a good bet. My monetary interest will be riding on the Southwell Tapeta, instead.

…….

5.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

With a top amateur in the saddle Biplane looks ominous off a 62 mark. Judged on his very best effort over this C/D last summer he’s theoretically the one to beat. But he’s only ever ran once in 24 career runs to that level of form.

He will have to be a that level here, though, because I reckon the lightly raced Streetscape could have a few pounds in hand after a highly promising comeback- and first Handicap run last time out at Newcastle.

He moved forward to track the early pace until he started to challenge the leaders from over 2 furlongs out. He was gutsy right to the line but beaten by winner and second from the rear of the field in the end.

I thought he showed great attitude there, as he settled well early on and looked like trying seriously hard in the closing stages to keep the challengers at bay.

The race finished in a sprint, which can’t have been to his advantage, I believe, as he should stay a bit further on pedigree.

For now a mile should be fine. This is only going to be his 5th career-run and from his low draw I expect him to be a bit more aggressive this time to ensure it’s a solid gallop that will suit him.

The 3lb claim of Alice Keighley should be solid value. She usually sits on good chances, and posts a seriously strong record especially for this yard.

With that in mind, this lad should have a cracking chance and too much to offer of his rivals in this race.

10pts win – Streetscape @ 5/2

……

8.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Hot race. Autumn Angel has probably been leniently treated by the handicapper for her latest course and distance success. The issue I see: she will need a bit of luck and a clear run to catch those who inevitably will be any number of lengths in front as they turn for home.

Papa Cocktail is obviously of huge interest to me. A horse I am tracking since summer last year; he caught the eye once again in dramatic fashion last time; he’s almost certainly seriously well-handicapped. But I want him over 7 furlongs. He’s not one to trust and this shorter trip isn’t his best.

Putting any faith into a 15-race maiden may not be the wisest move. But Whiteandblue was a huge eyecatcher last time out as well, and I couldn’t be happier seeing her over 6 furlongs round a bend.

Last time at Newcastle she moved quickly forward and set a red hot pace – they went faster over the first half than the class 4 Handicap over 5 furlongs on the same card. She continued to lead until deep inside the final furlong but eventually was overwhelmed.

A huge run. And a career best speed rating – she had enough time to recover from the effort, and has been left untouched by the handicapper. The winner of that race went on to give the form a strong look having won subsequently again.

Since having changed yards her form has gradually improved and it looks like the penny may have dropped.

From the #6 draw she won’t have much trouble getting to the lead, or at least following it closely. Ireland’s Eye will move forward as well, most likely. I think this can only hep her to settle, having a bit of company early on.

Of course there is a chance that they go too hard once again. But I hope the turn will slow them down that little bit more than it was possibly at the straight Newcastle last time.

10pts win – Whiteandblue @ 6/1

Betting

All-Weather Thursday Selections: 9th March 2023

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1.15 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

It was an odd race and even odder ride Primo’s Comet received at Newcastle last month when last seen. It also was quite impressive how the veteran gelding finished his race there.

He was restrained early on, seemingly impeded around 4f out as pace wasn’t rapid and it got tight amongst those held up. He switched eventually to get a run against the inside rail but didn’t find space until late, while the jockey in the saddle wasn’t all that bothered, it seemed.

In any case, the way the 8-year-old finished suggests he must be hitting some serious form. That comprises with his rapidly falling handicap mark.

Nonetheless, he still managed to run to 61 and 63 speed rating in October and November, therefore looks handicapped to go close on that evidence alone, now rated 63.

He’s got a favourable low draw here and should enjoy the chaotic and frantic pace to be expected in this race to be delivered in the closing stages for a turn of foot.

10pts win – Primo’s Comet @ 11/2

………

7.45 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

The wider than ideal #9 draw is a concern, but that aside there’s an awful lot to like about Fanzone here in a winnable contest.

This is going to be his second run after a break. That most recent comeback run nine days ago was seriously eye catching, suggesting the 6-year-old gelding is in fine form and very much ready to win.

Nine days ago he wasn’t quite the sharpest out of a wider than ideal draw and looked a bit keen, as he settled in midfield. He travelled really well for a long time but had to wait to be angled out to the stands’ side rail for a clear run.

Once in the clear he found plenty for pressure. In fact he finished fastest for the last two furlongs.

It was an excellent comeback run after 188 days off. He also caught the eye a number of times last year on the flat.

Yet, racing off a career lowest mark he makes a lot of appeal as he drops in grade as well, into 0-55 level, with in-form Oisin Murphy in the saddle.

10pts win – Fanzone @ 7/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 7th March 2023

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Quite disappointing performances from both selections at Wolverhampton last night. Both relinquished rather willingly their low draw, and neither got properly involved in the finish of their respective races.

Surprised me. I must admit, because I was quietly keen on both horses being seriously overpriced; I wasn’t expecting but certainly hoping for huge runs. Shows even if you ‘feel’ you sit on really strong bets, it doesn’t mean anything in this game.

……..

8.00 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

Second run after a break, Roman Dynasty looks seriously dangerous off a career-lowest handicap mark today over a course and distance that should suit, with Spencer on board.

He caught the eye twice in October at Chelmsford, especially that October 22nd run was noteworthy, because with some imagination one could see how he possibly goes seriously close with a clear run that day.

His comeback run a fortnight ago was clearly one of the rather eyecatching sort as well. He had a wide draw to overcome, travelled well off the pace, going well into the home straight, and made excellent progress under hands and heels to finish the fastest in the final furlong.

A better draw today, another two pounds off the mark that brings him down to 69, a career-lowest Official Rating – he should be ripe and ready to rock.

On past performances he appears to be pretty well handicapped: he ran to topspeed 72 on turf last summer and he looked more than capable to be better than his current 69 rating, judged on his All-Weather efforts.

The early money has dried up and he’s on the drift in the betting this morning, especially on the exchanges where it feels a bit suspect that I managed to get 15/2 and bits matched for my entire stake without too much hassle, given earlier industry prices showed around 9/2; something I don’t like to see when Spencer rides.

But I don’t see a reason why he shouldn’t run his race today, with wellbeing and form confirmed in no uncertain terms in a winnable contest.

10pts win – Roman Dynasty @ 15/2

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #9

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather. Find all previous lists here.

Primo’s Comet
20/02/23 – 6.00 Newcastle:

Restrained in rear, possibly slightly impeded around 4f out as pace wasn’t rapid and it got tight amongst those held up. Switched toward inside rail but didn’t get a run until late. Seriously light ride.

Rapidly falls in his rating. Still managed to run to 61 and 63 speed rating in October and November. Should be ready for big run soon over minimum trip.

Race Replay

Streetscape
20/02/23 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Moved forward to track the early pace. Challenged leaders from over 2 furlongs out to hit the front soon after. Gutsy run right to the line but beaten by winner and second from rear of the field.

Handicap debut, off a break; should be able to improve. Remains of interest over 1m but looks to have even options over 10 furlongs on pedigree.

Race Replay

Samba Lady
21/02/23 – 6.30 Southwell:

Seriously keen in the first half of the race on first try over 7f. Made excellent progress and was fastest through 4 to final furlong. Pushed eventual winner who made all hard to the line.

Looks increasingly exposed but off this lowered 63 mark should be really competitive, if the handicapper leaves her untouched, in similar 0-65 Handicap once more down to 6f.

Around a turn with a good draw and not too much pace to compete is the obvious ideal scenario over the shorter trip.

Race Replay

Beneficiary
23/02/23 – 7.00 Newcastle:

Moved forward, pushed solid pace as part of a duo, took up the lead 2f out, still ahead approaching final furlong but then tired rapidly.

Second run for new yard. Ran to 63 speed rating in the past. Good form this here, looks to be hitting peak soon. Drop in grade or any help from handicapper will be intriguing, as would be 6f around a bend of 5f at Newcastle once again.

Race Replay

Regal Glory
24/02/23 – 1.20 Lingfield:

Overcame widest draw easily to lead early one, before settling second closely following the leader. Attacked from 3f out before slowing over 2f out, before badly hampered. In the clear over half a furlong from home and got going again.

Mile is probably too far. Won nicely over 7f two runs back, and also ran to 57 speed rating prior. Ideally drops down in trip again. any help from the handicapper will be a bonus.

Race Replay

Man Made Of Smoke
24/02/23 – 1.20 Lingfield:

Moved forward, led keenly, set even gallop, led until turning for home. Paid for keenness in the final part of the race.

It seems he doesn’t really get trip. It was not a hot pace, but he struggled to settle well at this slower gallop. He remains amaiden, but run often well in the past as evidence of his mark that didn’t move much.

He’s usually up with pace, so should enjoy a drop to 7f when he can go a bit faster. He didn’t have too many chances over this trip on AW.

Race Replay

Game Nation
24/02/23 – 2.50 Lingfield:

Chased the hot pace, going pretty well as he started his challenge over 2f out. Led 1.5f from home but tired badly in the closing stages.

Still a maiden but remains unexposed and has dropped rapidly in the mark to something more realistic. Will almost certainly enjoy a step up in trip.

Race Replay

Sir Rodneyredblood
25/02/23 – 6.40 Chelmsford:

Excellent early speed, helped by low draw. Led, strong pace. Tried hard but eventually fading from 1f out.

Back from a small break. Ran well a number of times in autumn. Best at Chelmsford and Lingfield over 5 to 6 furlongs.

Ideally drops down to 0-60, but will keep open mind in right race, depending on track, draw and pace map.

Race Replay

Bang On The Bell
17/02/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton

Quick start from the widest draw to get to the leaders as the field entered the turn. Pushed strong pace as part of trip, before getting quite tired in the home straight.

Much better thank comeback run, although that was over 6 furlongs. Increasingly drops to a dangerous mark again. Ideally want to see him below 70 over the minimum trip. He could be really-well handicapped then in the right race.

Race Replay

Candy Warhol
28/02/23 – 7.00 Southwell:

Restrained from widest draw, travelled in rear. Makes progress from over 3f out as pace increased to be in a challenging position at the top of the home straight. Kept in a pocket there and didn’t get a clear run until late. Unlucky.

Handicap debut. Looks on a fair opening mark judged on this effort. Any natural improvement would see this lightly raced 4yo well capable of winning a similar race.

Race Replay

Fanzone
28/02/23 – 7.30 Southwell:

Not quite the sharpest out of wider than ideal draw, bit keen, settled in midfield. Travelled well for a long time and fond plenty once pulled out and asked for full effort.

Excellent comeback run after 188 days off. Caught eye a number of times last year on the flat. Not one to trust too much but should be on a pretty good mark now if he could hold his form.

Race Replay

Eastern Star
01/03/23 – 5.30 Kempton:

Grabbed lead and set seriously hot pace early on. Had the field on the stretch, still going well turning for home. Severely under pressure from 2 furlongs out. Impressive how he pulled out more and fought back gamely.

Must be in serious form. Better over 7 furlongs. Was due to drop 2lb but unlikely that’s going to happen now. Should be really intriguing as he has a 7f entry next Friday as he was off 54 only a shoulder beaten in a similar contest exactly 12 months ago.

Race Replay

Secretary
02/03/23 – 1.25 Newcastle:

Restrained in rear early on but quite keen, gradually pulled his way forward. Came with good looking challenge but faded badly in the final furlong.

Probably doesn’t stay the trip. Family is sprint heavy dam won over 7 furlongs, though. Eye catching win when last seen in 2022 at Chelmsford overcoming widest draw. Looks potentially on a lenient mark if dropping down to 7f again.

Race Replay

Spartan Fighter
03/03/23 – 7.15 Newcastle:

Chased pace early on, before applying pressure on the leaders from three furlongs out to lead as he kicked on; still ahead approaching the final furlong before getting tired.

Outran his odds in the last runs. Looks in form. Won of higher marks last March at Newcastle. also running to 71, 74 and 77 speed ratings. Worth monitoring for some support in the market. Can’t be long before he’s ready to strike.

Race Replay

Punk Poet
03/03/23 – 8.00 Dundalk:

Excellent start from wide draw, up with the pace early on, before he settled in the chasing pack. Travelled really strongly into the home straight but faded rapidly.

Reappearance off 26 days off the track. Most likely needed the run, given the way he dropped out quickly. Down to good mark already but may get additional help now from the handicapper.

Won off 82 and 82 last year, also ran to 82 speed rating. Versatile as he stays a mile and is pacey enough for 7 furlongs. Usually likes to be up with the pace.

Race Replay

Pulse Of Shanghai
03/03/23 – 8.o0 Dundalk

Pushed forward from very wide draw, eventually got to the lead entering the bend. Had to do a lot to get there. Kicked on nicely approaching the home straight, still leading 1.5f out, before rapidly falling away.

Good run. Outperformed big odds more often than not lately, but never threatening. Comes to intriguing mark. Anything closer to 60 now over 6 or 7f at Dundalk with good, draw will be interesting. 7f is a stretch, though. Depends on the other pace in the race. Also turf off 58 intriguing.

Race Replay

Little Keilee
03/03/23 – 9.00 Dundalk

Bit keen early on and was forced to settle in rear on the inside as the way forward was closed from her wide draw. Travelled well entering the home straight and went for a run toward the stands’ side. Badly hampered and repeatedly clear run denied.

Appeared to be going well enough to suggest she could have gone close with a clear run, although was a bad drifter in the betting on the day. Lightly raced, only second handicap start; was in season lto, that run can be discounted.

Race Replay

Betting

All-Weather Wednesday: 1st March 2023

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It’s not often that this small and completely irrelevant blog gets much attention. And why would it? However, the piece about my self-experiment with the ProCush whip seems to have hit a nerve within the racing bubble.

This site received in the last two days as much traffic as it normally would get in two-three full months! The original tweet was seen over 225k times, and messages came flying from all over the globe.

It was an even bigger surprise when doing the cooking on Monday night when I usually listen to the Betfair podcast to heat Kevin Blake highlighting the piece (58:36).

It’s been a crazy 24h, that’s for sure. I am only a racing fan who writes about the sport. Nothing special. It shows there is appetite for real info on the whip, though. Something to address by the governing bodies. For all they lack the will, obviously.

On the betting front Galileo Glass finished a super 2nd today, but didn’t get the gap when needed. He surely would have won otherwise. Big Impact ran too free, unfortunately.

Ends February on minus 10pts. After a super start to the month, I now haven’t backed a winner in nearly three weeks, 16 selections and counting, and also 45pts down on the year. It will be all updated here by tomorrow, as always.

…….

2.30 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Muy Muy Guapo was a huge eyecatcher when last seen at Kempton. He was a bit awkward away from the gate, settled in last, then travelled strongly into the home straight.

He was easily able to answer every acceleration from the front group, but didn’t get a clear passage, while not really asked for full effort at all.

That was his Handicap debut and first run for the Simon Dow yard off a 100 day break. He is very much expected to improve for the run.

There is clearly a lot of talent, certainly compared to the opposition here. He’s still a colt and cost £115k as a yearling. Horses in this grade don’t often travel that well and can answer every pace acceleration that easily as Muy Muy Guapo did last time out.

He was even rewarded with a pound off his mark for that pretty spectacular effort. He looks tremendously well-handicapped.

10pts win – Muy Muy Guapo @ 5/1

…….

3.00 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Big Bard ran better than the bare suggests the last two times. He came on my radar thanks a brave front-running performance on the last day of the old year. That form looks quite strong on paper.

He ran with credit next time out over 7 furlongs too, after things got rough in the early parts of the race, which meant he was set alight and pulling hard. He still travelled really well for a very long time.

The drop in trip to 6 furlongs is sure to suit here. He also has been dropped another 2lb, now rated 58. He looks handicapped to go close.

He ran to speed ratings 59 and 60 since September, although on turf, but his career best speed rating on All-Weather is 59, which he achieved twice, albeit at Chelmsford.

The race could be set up for him from the #2 draw with not much pace to compete with, if Hector Crouch wants to move forward.

10pts win – Big Bard @ 9/1

……..

8.30 Kempton: Classified Stakes, 6f

Good things come in threes, once again? I certainly hope so. I have given up on Paddy K after his recent gallant, but ultimately unfortunate runner-up performance at Southwell. He remains a maiden.

Instead, I go back to my trusted source of despair, that is May Remain. The 8-year-old ran a massive race last time out, when he moved rapidly forward from the widest draw and set the world alight from the front.

No surprise to see him finish a very tired horse. Still, he managed to finish 3rd, and that form doesn’t look bad in the context of this field.

He has the benefit of a #2 draw here, which is absolutely ideal. This course and distance favours front-runners and low draws. He won’t have his own way up front and there is danger that he does too much early on.

But the latest form, as well as a number of previous runs this winter, gave the impression that he is simply excellent form, and possibly better than the vast majority in this field.

10pts win – May Remain @ 5/1

Betting

All-Weather Tuesday: 28th February 2023

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It was eventful day on multiple fronts. Only on the betting front it didn’t click. Still searching in vain for the winner that gets me out of this rotten spell.

Sharron Macready went off favourite in the end. Great, I got a super price, once again…. it counted for nothing. No excuses, though. She had every chance and wasn’t good enough.

…….

7.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Is this ‘the’ day for Galileo Glass? The early market suggests it could be the case. More so, it’s been his last two performances that suggested he is close to peak form, however.

Mid-January over this course and distance he was a significant eyecatcher as he was restrained at the back of the field after a good start. He turned for home in last position, seemed poised for a solid challenge, but didn’t get a clear run before he finished easily.

Fitted with a visor for the first time when last seen, over the same course and distance, he was sharp out of the gate, possibly did a bit too much early on, though, yet travelled strongly into the home straight. He didn’t quite get a clear run over 2f out; in any case he didn’t have a chance with the winner and tired.

Both runs appear to be strong form, and made plenty of appeal visually. He drops into 0-60 class here, dropped a pound in the ratings, where he’s meeting a really poor bunch of rivals in this field.

The #11 draw is a not ideal, there is a clear danger that he is going to be caught wide. It’s worth taking the risk simply because I think he has quite a bit in hand in this field. The booking of Oisin Murphy is a bonus.

10pts win – Galileo Glass @ 5/1

……

8.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

I am following Big Impact for a while. He’s been quite consistent this winter, having performed with credit and ran to some solid speed ratings.

He looked somewhat in the grip of the handicapper, but he caught the eye a number of times when he ran better than the bare form suggest also.

Now down to a mark of 55, 4lb lower than his last winning mark, as he drops down into 0-55 class, he must have a tremendous chance.

He’ll enjoy the ideal #3 draw here and should enjoy the fast pace of the race. He tends to pull hard; so happened last time out over this course and distance. Then from a wider #7 gate he just didn’t settle and wasted a lot of energy.

It was still noteworthy that he kept coming back for more in the closing stages. He should get a lead here from Ustath, and hopefully drops his head. That’s the risk, always.

But this is a not an overly competitive race. He’s clearly in excellent form as evidence of three speed ratings of 56+. He’s potentially on a lenient mark and can move forward from the perfect draw.

10pts win – Big Impact @ 13/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 23rd February 2023

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Unfortunately the scenario where He’s So Brazen goes off hard and doesn’t get home over the stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle materialised today. Worse: old ‘friend’ Lucky Lucky Lucky got home to win nicely…. clearly not going too well lately.

……….

8.00 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Gowanbuster has been knocking on the door lately, as he showed plenty of good signs in all his last three runs since his comeback after a wind operation during last summer. He clearly is in superb form and a winner in the making.

He ran to a 59 speed rating last time out; his best in three years. He was ridden with more patience than usual, and came strongly in the second half of the race the challenge for victory, just to beaten by the even stronger finishing and evidently well-handicapped Tathmeen, who won subsequently again.

That was a huge performance and tied in nicely with his two prior runs that were eye catching in their own right.

He drops to the minimum trip again, which I feel is ideal, given the way he faded late after racing much more prominently than the last times. His C&D record is only 9-1-1 but this race looks perfectly set up for his usual racing style.

He should be able to move forward to grab a relatively uncontested lead, which is an advantage over this course and distance. He has the added benefit of staying further, so should be able to keep the challengers at bay in the closing stages.

10pts win – Gowanbuster @ 4/1

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #8

2 Comments

A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather. Find all previous lists here.

Counsel
07/02/23 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Seriously keen from wide draw, jockey tried to restrain him, before rushing forward on the widest outside to grab lead entering the home turn, having done way too much up to that point. Fell away in the final two furlongs.

Some interesting tactics have been deployed on this horse lately. Caught the eye last time as well. He’s possibly a few pounds too high in the mark. Strong run last month when runner-up at Chelmsford off 76.

Drop to 7f could be interesting, although no doubt he stays a mile. Needs a bit more help from the handicapper and one to watch out for when the market signals are positive.

Race Replay

First Company
08/02/23 – 6.30 Kempton:

Crossed quickly over from #11 draw to the inside, seriously keen, especially tough to control up on entering the bend. Travelled strongly into home straight, not quite the clearest of runs but impressive change of gear as he weaves through the field from 1.5f out, before getting tiered.

Probably doesn’t stay the trip, but also finds it tough to get home over 7f due to racing too freely. Sole win over minimum trip. Still unexposed on the All-Weather over shorter sprint trips.

Yet to be expected to run well on the sand. Comes down to intriguing mark. Drop in trip and good draw could do wonders. Ran six times to 70+ speed ratings on turf over 5 furlongs.

Race Replay

Outrace
08/02/23 – 7.00 Kempton:

Moved forward to lead, was about three lengths ahead soon, reduced lead entering the home straight and headed 2f out, kept answering the challenge and rallied strongly. Eventually tiered, finished third with winner from well off the pace and on back to back wins.

Showed great attitude and continues his excellent recent form. Would be really interesting down in trip over 7f. Even though he won over a mile, he probably doesn’t see out a strongly run race, but has the pedigree and pace to dominate over the short trip.

Race Replay

Far From A Ruby
09/02/23 – 5.10 Newcastle:

Moved quickly forward from #1 draw, early on isolated on her side; pushing a hot pace. Rapidly faded away from 2 furlongs out.

First run in 135 days, dropped away like one who was badly in need of the run. Lovely pipe opener, though. Trip too short and she was able to go the pace early on.

Will be interesting once up in trip again, 7-8f. Showed in Autumn to be still capable of performances that could see her well-handicapped off her current mark, running to a 58 speed rating at Ayr, a career-best on turf. She is better on the sand.

Race Replay

Whiteandblue
09/02/23 – 5.10 Newcastle:

Moved forward quickly and set red hot pace – they were faster over the first half than the C4 5f Handicap on the same card. Continued to lead until deep inside the final furlong. Huge run. Career-best speed rating.

Still a maiden, but has the penny dropped? Off same mark really interesting for drop to 5f once more, or 6f around a turn. Ran to 58 in the past and now 59 speed rating.

Race Replay

Papa Cocktail
10/02/23 – 5.35 Southwell:

Awkward away, travelled in rear, loads to do turning for home, seemingly going well; no clear run; finished seriously strongly in the final furlong.

Caught the eye a number of times on turf last year. Tricky horse, seems to have developed issues at the start. However, not expected since August, so somewhat mitigating factors for seemingly poor form.

Up in trip over 7f, if any support in the market he’s going to be serious runner, if he can get well away from the gate. The could have quite a bit in hand before the handicapper one the handbrake is off for good.

Race Replay

Leabaland
10/02/23 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Travelled really strongly into the home straight. Squeezed upon entering the straight, and multiple times a clear run denied subsequently. No chance to unleash a challenge.

One who seems to find trouble. Not always the clearest of passage the last two runs either. Caught the eye back in October too. Didn’t have a lot of luck with a low draw ever since.

Remains of interest over a mile, ideally with a good draw. He looks in fine form, ready to strike.

Race Replay

Race Replay

Insomina
10/02/23 – 7.30 Dundalk:

Moved quickly forward to grab the lead and set solid fractions from the front. Still ahead by a couple of lengths entering the home straight before fading rapidly.

Changed hands for £3k in December. Three poor runs since, although this one looked more positive given the enthusiasm he travelled with.

Ran to 73 speed rating last summer on the AW. Market will dictate when on a going day. Ideally gets more help from the handicapper before I am getting involved. 7f with a good draw possibly the ideal scenario.

Race Replay

Gobi Sunset
11/02/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Bumped right after the start, pushed forward to lead, setting a healthy gallop. Still ahead entering the final furlong before swamped. Followed up with solid effort at Newcastle.

Off a long break. Usually does well fresh, but was a drifter on the day and perhaps not quite as ready as in previous years. Not too well-handicapped right now but good chance in a similar race over 6 or 7 furlongs with any from the handicapper.

Race Replay

Ri Na Farraige
13/02/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

A bit keen early on, then travelled really strongly. going well and making progress from 3f out, challenge on the wide outside, a bit hanging over 1f out, couldn’t catch winner. Strong form and race

Only second handicap run, achieved 64 speed rating, in line with current mark. Any improvement for second run off break will see him ripe to win.

10f entry next week interesting. Stamina isn’t assured, and he must settle; but worth a go as he kept running well to the line here.

Race Replay

Turbo Tiger
14/02/23 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Moved quickly and keenly forward, probably wasting quite a bit of energy. Swamped over 1f out, bit flat footed, before coming back for more late, which was impressive.

Freshly gelded. Comes to more realistic official rating after a harsh opening mark. Will be interesting for drop to class 6 and possibly a 55 mark as then much more realistic to see him being competitive.

Full-brother to a decent sprinter who does his best over 6f, hence goin up in trip possible as well.

Race Replay

Bridge Water
15/02/23 – 5.00 Kempton:

Widest draw, restrained and trailing the field, nicely settled. Travelled strongly and made strong progress from 3f out. Finished much the best. Just been poorly positioned.

Unlikely to be strong form. But her run prior warranted an upgrade too. Probably needs a step up to 7f. Can improve then off a low mark.

Race Replay

Rogue Force
15/02/23 – 7.30 Kempton:

Good start, up wit the pace early, bit keen, before then settled in a position tracking the pace. Travelled the best to the 2 furlong marker but didn’t find much off the bridle.

Didn’t see out his races too well the last two times. Looks in need of a drop to 7f, unless previous wind issues are back . Won over 7f off 75 in the past.

Looks one who needs frequent breaks, usually best on second start. In right conditions certainly of interest given mark will continue to fall.

Race Replay

Royal Tribute
15/02/23 – 2.20 Dundalk:

Tracked pace in midfield three deep, travelled well, but looked awkward and hanging in the home straight. Solid follow-up from excellent runner-up performance in early February.

That day over 7f furlongs he made good use of low draw and tracked pace. Travelled really strongly into the home straight, on the bridle approaching 2f out, ran on for strong second. Form franked subsequently.

Becomes interesting if back over 7f and with any help from the handicapper with a good draw. Appears to be in fine form and not far off the excellent form shown on turf last summer.

Race Replay

Pittsburg
17/02/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Travelled on the inside well off the pace, going strongly, notably on the bridle entering the home straight with plenty to do. Not clear run until the final furlong marker; ran on easily.

Trip too short. Big price, wasn’t expected. Flat maiden but unexposed on the flat. Three strong performances prior over 1m to 11f. Will be interesting up in trip again, especially with any help from the handicapper.

Race Replay

Revoquable
17/02/23 – 5.15 Southwell:

Crossed over from widest draw quickly to track the leader closely before taking up the front from over 2f out. Gutsy and answering the challenges until getting tired inside the final furlong.

Will be intriguing once he drops below a 55 mark, ideally also down in trip to 7 furlongs. Should be strong runner in those circumstances.

Race Replay

Lady Nagin
17/02/23 – 6.15 Southwell:

Pulled her way to the front right before entering the bend. Wasted a lot of energy. Impressive attitude in the home straight when heavily challenged as she only went down fighting late in the final furlong.

Obviously has stamina for the trip and possibly beyond but keenness is an issue. Won well over CD lto, but I would be intrigued to see her dropping down to 5f, especially at at stiff finish like Newcastle.

Race Replay

Sunset Nova
17/02/23 – 5.30 Dundalk:

Settled well off the pace, travelled smoothly into the home straight wit ha wall of horses in front. Angled out to the stands’ side, as consequence relegated to last. Ran on a bit under pretty light ride.

Was seriously well backed in the morning from 33’s. 3rd run since gelding. Drops down to increasingly sexy mark. Any further help from the handicapper will be a intriguing. Probably 7f ideal at this stage but won over anything 6-8f.

Race Replay

My Little Tip
17/02/23 – 5.30 Dundalk:

Dwelt, lost a number of lengths at the start, then rapidly moved forward to track the pace on the inside. Was going well entering the home straight, answered the challenges before getting tired inside the final furlong.

Tricky sort, lost his way in the last year. Was rated 92 twelve months ago. Changed hands for £12,000 in August. Continued to perform poorly and fell down in the ratings.

Clear return to form. Off a 67 mark over 7 furlongs he looks dangerous if allowed to run on merit and if in the right mood. Dangerous sort, nonetheless.

Race Replay

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 21st February 2023

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It was a major disappointment today: Otto Oyl finished down the field. The way he dropped out didn’t look right and too bad to be true. So it was: he was found lame post-race.

Here’s hoping for a speedy recovery. I am prepared to give him another chance. Ideally in a Handicap, as I still maintain the view that he could be seriously well handicapped.

…….

8.00 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

In all her recent runs Sharron Macready looked desperate for a drop in trip. Usually she would charge forward seriously keen, pulling hard and setting a hot pace from the front. All her recent runs can be upgraded for that reason.

Especially three runs back in September at Wolverhampton she ran a huge race from the front off 4lb higher than today and was less than two lengths beaten in the end.

I also quite liked her most recent run at Kempton after a small break when she kept going even after being headed and heavily challenged on all sides. The form of those two last runs appear strong, as well.

She didn’t have the opportunity to run over the minimum trip yet. Now dropping in grade, she could have superior speed and class in this field. It’s a pretty deep field for this grade, though.

Nonetheless, she enjoys a favourable low draw, and should enjoy the company of Dark Die Prince, who is likely to move forward from the #1 draw. She should have his lead to follow, which should help her to settle.

The fact she is so unexposed brings its own dangers. She hasn’t ran a serious speed rating yet, but I attribute that to the fact that she wasn’t able to finish her races over 6 furlongs after the early exertions.

Rossa Ryan in the saddle is a big plus. He rides these sprint trips really well on the All-Weather. An additional benefit is the strong record for the sire Mehmas with his offspring over this course and distance (25% strike rate, A/E 1.47) .

10pts win – Sharron Macready @ 9/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 12th February 2023

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All good things come in threes, indeed. Healing Power won, as hoped, from the front, and doing so in nice style. He was too good this time, with the ideal race from the front. He was a huge drift out to 7/1 SP surprisingly.

Gobi Sunset was only late beaten; he ran well, but perhaps the drift in the betting suggested he wasn’t quite 100% on his comeback run this time, as he tiered quickly inside the final furlong. One to keep in mind for another time.

……

4.50 Southwell: Classified Stakes, 6f

There are question marks over May Remain at the age of 8 and after missing a recent assignment due to travel problems. A wide draw is far from ideal either. On the other hand, if there are no other underlying issues, I do believe he enjoys a class edge in this poor contest.

Obviously I did back him last time out at Wolverhampton, and rued the decision, as I actually foresaw what would happen from his wide draw as he was caught wide and never stood a chance. Therefore, the run can be ignored, in my view.

Am I about to make the same mistake twice? Possibly, but possibly not. Southwell is different to Wolverhampton, and the 12 draw in these conditions is no advantage but neither as dramatic a disadvantage either, especially in this field, where there is little pace to fear from the lower gates.

That means May Remain should find it not too difficult to cross over and find himself in an ideal spot, without wasting tons of energy. If that does work out this way indeed, then he will have a huge chance to win, now that he races over 6 furlongs again.

He doesn’t stay 7 furlongs. He never truly did. With that in mind I was repeatedly impressed how well the veteran has performed this winter over a trip stretching him to the absolute limit. He ran well more often than not, and showed a good attitude at the same time.

In my view, in a Handicap over 6f with a good draw, he would be a good chance of his last handicap mark (54). He’s down to 50, though, and that makes him eligible to run in this contest.

If I am correct in believing the lto run has falsely led to this reduction in his rating, given he had no chance from his draw that day, then he’s clearly better than the vast majority of horses in this really poor Classified Stakes.

In any case, for what it’s worth, the big prices are quickly vanishing for May Remain this evening. Thankfully I started checking the exchanges early enough to get bits and pieces on throughout to get my full stake matched at a nice overall price, although no chance to get the earlier 8’s+.

If things don’t work out on Sunday, he’s got an entry next Tuesday at Newcastle in a similar race.

10pts win – May Remain @ 7/1