Quite disappointing performances from both selections at Wolverhampton last night. Both relinquished rather willingly their low draw, and neither got properly involved in the finish of their respective races.
Surprised me. I must admit, because I was quietly keen on both horses being seriously overpriced; I wasn’t expecting but certainly hoping for huge runs. Shows even if you ‘feel’ you sit on really strong bets, it doesn’t mean anything in this game.
8.00 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 1m
Second run after a break, Roman Dynasty looks seriously dangerous off a career-lowest handicap mark today over a course and distance that should suit, with Spencer on board.
He caught the eye twice in October at Chelmsford, especially that October 22nd run was noteworthy, because with some imagination one could see how he possibly goes seriously close with a clear run that day.
His comeback run a fortnight ago was clearly one of the rather eyecatching sort as well. He had a wide draw to overcome, travelled well off the pace, going well into the home straight, and made excellent progress under hands and heels to finish the fastest in the final furlong.
A better draw today, another two pounds off the mark that brings him down to 69, a career-lowest Official Rating – he should be ripe and ready to rock.
On past performances he appears to be pretty well handicapped: he ran to topspeed 72 on turf last summer and he looked more than capable to be better than his current 69 rating, judged on his All-Weather efforts.
The early money has dried up and he’s on the drift in the betting this morning, especially on the exchanges where it feels a bit suspect that I managed to get 15/2 and bits matched for my entire stake without too much hassle, given earlier industry prices showed around 9/2; something I don’t like to see when Spencer rides.
But I don’t see a reason why he shouldn’t run his race today, with wellbeing and form confirmed in no uncertain terms in a winnable contest.
10pts win – Roman Dynasty @ 15/2