Competitive in nature as these sprint handicaps tend to be, there are about a handful – at most – handicapped to win. British raider Came From The Dark is definitely one of those.
He was a massive eyecatcher last time in the infamous Epsom Dash where he finished the fastest over the last three furlongs.
That day he had a lot to do after missing the break and getting pushed over to his right by a rival right after leaving the gate. Eventually he ran on incredibly strongly with a huge effort on the far side of the track.
That run confirmed the impression he gave at Newmarket before, where he also finished the best and was somewhat unfortunate finding himself behind horses at a crucial stage.
Clearly Came From The Dark is in sensational form. However, he didn’t get off to a good start the last two times now. Is this a new habit? A clear concern, as it would be game over here if he loses a lengths at the start.
On the other hand, the uphill finish over 5f at the Curragh should suit a lot and he is drawn right around a lot of pace to possibly tow him into the finish, where he needs possibly a bit of luck for the gap to open.
Off 89 he’s well-handicapped, no doubt. Ground, trip and track will suit.
10pts win – Came From The Dark @ 15/2
……
3.40 Curragh: Group 1 Irish Derby, 1m 4f
Auguste Rodin is the overwhelming favourite and there’s every reason to believe he can do the special Epsom & Curragh double today.
Too imposing was his performance last month in the English Derby, as he cruised into contention over two furlongs out and kicked clear off a very good colt in King Of Steel.
He ran home the fastest over the final three furlongs and did it easily. There’s no doubt he’s incredibly hard to beat. Perhaps he’s nearly unbeatable – as much the odds suggest.
Aiden O’Brien has assembled an armada of runners, probably to ensure a safe passage and solid pace.
Unfortunately the final field has somewhat cut up to the point where the Irish Derby becomes nearly a family affair for the O’Brien clan. In saying that, the two “foreigners” are of huge interest, and add spice to the race, nonetheless.
White Birch has proven himself to be a seriously talented colt. On speed figures his runner-up performance in the Dante rates actually a pound higher than Auguste Rodin’s Derby victory.
Different track, different trip, though. Nonetheless, the Ballysax winner caught the eye in the Dante and subsequently the Derby with the way he finished his races. Both times not ideally placed.
If he could start better, and doesn’t give himself too much to do early on, he’ll be closer at this more conventional track, that is the Curragh. The likely good pace and stiff finish should suit.
The other one is Sprewell, Jessica Harrington’s colt. A winner of a minor race at Naas on his seasonal debut, he showed signs of developing into a really good one in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown.
He kicked nicely clear in the final furlong of the talented Up And Under, who is also here today, trained by Joseph O’Brien, and one who also could feature.
Sprewell, though, is the one I’m most interested in for win purposes against Auguste Rodin. The question then is, what are the reasons for him to find seven lengths today? That was the distance he found himself behind at Epsom, where he finished 4th.
The factors that could see him getting a lot closer this time are the track, the ground and the hope for natural improvement.
Epsom was only his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still quite a bit keen and raw at various stages of the race.
Certainly he didn’t enjoy the idiosyncrasies of Epsom. He also had mitigating factors in the home straight for not finishing closer.
Sprewell found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out. He was ever so slightly hampered in the preceding furlong as well.
Wen he tried to go through a gap, splitting the middle of two rivals, he became severely unbalanced. It was impressive and the sign of serious talent that he found his momentum quickly back before his stamina ran out in the final furlong, though he still finished with the 4th fasted final furlong split, and 5th best over the last three furlongs, despite all the trouble.
The galloping Curragh should suit a lot more, so should the less fast ground. He may be ridden with a bit more restraint as well, and then slowly easing into contention. Whether he truly gets home over the Derby trip, up the hill, remains to be seen.
My feeling is 10 furlongs may turn out to be the optimum. On the other hand, in the Derby trial, on heavy ground, he was gaining the further they went in the closing stages.
The truth is most likely, Sprewell will find Auguste Rodin too good. At the given prices, I feel it’s worth to back Jessica Harrington’s horse, though, as there are legitimate reasons to believe he can get a whole lot closer. And this is racing, things can happen.
One of my favourite races: A Grade 1 Handicap, an intriguing puzzle to solve every year – South Africa’s biggest race.
The 2023 renewal of the Durban July evolves all around favourite See It Again. A rock solid favourite with a solid draw.
The Cape Derby winne,r who beat superstar colt Charles Dickens in that race earlier this year, enjoyed a perfect prep with a fine runner-up performance in the World Sports Betting Guineas and a subsequent commanding victory in the Daily News 2000, both runs at Greyville.
That Daily News 2000 success is the standout piece of form and one would think he’ll be able to bring this form to the next level as he takes on older rivals for the first time.
He possesses a nice turn of foot and excellent cruising speed. Exactly what you need in the July. He looks competitively weighted as well with 65.5kg on the back.
Question marks I have: does he see out the trip on softish ground and will he find himself in too much trouble when it matters most? He’s not a straightforward colt.
Recent Dolphins Cup Trial winner Winchester Mansion is an obvious candidate, thank to that brilliant 3.5 lengths success last month.
A good #4 draw, he has a lot of finishing speed and could be well placed. He won over 2400m in the past, yet on softish ground, with a decent pace expected, in a highly competitive field, he may lack the required stamina over the July trip.
Justin Snaith #1 seems to be Without Question with Richard Fourie picked the son The United States.
He was twice beaten by See It Again already over 2000m. Although, that was on level weights. One feels he’s been brought along with the July very much in mind and he’s dangerous if he stays the 2200m distance.
The same can be said for 3-year-old Pacaya from the same stable. He’ll love the ground, has course form and is highly progressive.
On breeding he’s got a solid chance to stay the trip as well and there’s surely more to come. The #12 draw isn’t a worry and he’ll be a danger if he can take another step forward.
Last years third and probably Mike De Kock’s best chance is Safe Passage. I was sweet for a long time on him, and still believe he can run a strong race.
His 2022 run warrants an upgrade and with a clear run he has a shout with top man Christophe Soumillon in the saddle. He’ll need a bit of magic from the #14 draw.
Increasingly I begin to wonder weather Safe Passage is in love with this track, despite his Daily News 2000 success last year, though. One also has to question whether he has improved since last year. A bigger weight, difficult draw. Not sure there is much juice in his current price.
The other De Kock runner Dave The King has been talked about as a “dark horse”, although not so dark anymore when prominent racing people give him a huge shoutout.
His form gives this progressive 3-year-old a strong chance to feature prominently in the closing stages, if he can stretch out over the 2200m.
If the pace isn’t on, his chances increase plenty fold and 16s could look huge. He’s got a 100% record with a bit of give in the ground as well.
SA Classic winner Son Of Raj will stay every inch of the distance today. Whether he can bring his best form to Greyville is the question mark. He was disappointing the Daily News 2000 and may prefer the longer straight of Turffontein.
Rascallion may not be good enough against this opposition. Puerto Manzano has never looked really home at Greyville.
Well rested Billy Bowlegs comes here as a fresh horse and has question to answer on trip and ground. He has some strong form in defeat, though, and could go close with any improvement.
Perhaps unfortunate in the Met earlier this year, nonetheless hard to fancy over this trip is Pomp And Power. A highly talented individual, but equality enigmatic.
Veteran Do It Again is here for his final dance. Twice he’s won the July in the past. A true superstar of South African racing, still managed to finish a gallant 4th last year. He shouldn’t be good enough against younger rivals, though.
Two fillies that take on the boys today are of serious interest to me:
Rain In Holland is the recent Woolavington winner here at Greyville. She kicked clear in the final furlong, finding more and more as the race went on. She looks like crying out for an additional furlong.
An uncomplicated filly, she can move forward, travel, track a pace, kick and she loves it at Greyville.
She is incredibly tough and gutsy. A 2-11-4 record speaks for itself. Six runs in 2023 already is somewhat unusual for a fancied runner in the July. However, since February she ran only three times, which seems to have been an ideal prep.
Her form clearly stands up well. A strong and slightly unlucky third in the Grade 1 Champions Challenge, she landed the Woolavington in super style last time.
The weights aren’t quite in her favour, nonetheless I feel she is totally underestimated here in the betting. The top man on board, he’ll likely move forward from the #17 draw, and could overcome this perceived negative quickly.
If she finds a good spot, not caught wide early, you can be sure she’ll go down only for a seriously hard fight. There won’t be many in this field that find more when the final furlong marker is approached.
The other filly I feel is clearly overpriced is Woolavington runner-up Time Flies. She is highly progressive as a 4-year-old and still lightly enough raced to find more improvement.
She’s also quite uncomplicated, likes to be forward, and has the #3 draw to get that prominent position early on. Form wise she has to improve and take it to the next level, however she has answered all calls recently.
A fine winner of the Listed East Coast Cup over 10 furlongs at Greyville, she took her form to the next level in the Woolavinton.
Her Woolavington run warrants a huge upgrade given the tremendous progress she made from 5 furlongs out on the widest outside to hit the front in the closing stages, before she tired and still managed to hold on for 2nd place.
Whether she truly gets 2200m remains to be seen. Although, the full-brother stayed 2400m – so there’s more than just faint hope. She’s better off on the weights with Rain In Holland today as well.
5pts win – Rain In Holland @ 17/1 5pts win – Time Flies @ 35/1
June is over: 29pts profit. I guess, the way it went that counts as a major success. Quite how that is possible to turn a profit in a month with runs of 31 and 16 conseqeuitive losing bets is remarkable as it’s not sustainable.
Some big prices saved the day. Whether the rest was just unfortunate or more to it, I’ll need to dig deeper. What is certain: I had too many bets. The overwhelming amount of racing doesn’t help.
……..
8.15 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
Nibras Rainbow seems difficult to catch as he couldn’t follow on from an eyecatching run at track when last seen at Wetherby.
I felt he had excuses that day, though. Heavily bumped soon after the start, he lost his balance, was lit up, and used up energy to get moving forward. He was early beaten enough, nonetheless.
I have to go back to his penultimate effort over the extended seven furlongs here at Lingfield four weeks ago. A strong run and excellent form:
He dwelt from a wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was then still going well two furlongs from before before heavily challenged. He was seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.
Nibras Rainbow ran a career-best speed rating that day, in line with his current mark. Can he repeat the effort today, and may find a bit more? A decent start, from the #6 draw, could ensure that.
This is a wide open contest in my view. The favourite may improve again, but has to for the return to turf. He’s yet to impress on speed ratings, so worth taking on.
Nibras Rainbow is drifting in the betting this morning. But I feel he’s moving out to a huge price, if here to run on merit.
Plenty of things change for Malham Tarn Cove today: a slight drop in class, drop in trip and certainly better ground than the first two times he was seen this year.
Last time at this track over 6 furlongs he caught the eye in deep ground as he travelled quite well for a long time, made solid progress from 2f out to put a good challenge to the long-term leader.
The effort on the soft ground took his toll as he got pretty tired in the final furlong and had to settle for third place in the end.
This looks strong form and he meets lesser rivals today, while the handicapper has been kind to leave him on the same mark.
The change in underfoot conditions is intriguing. While the dam did all her best work on soft ground, the sire was top-class on a faster surface. He doesn’t seem to have that high a knee action to think he needs soft juice in the ground to be seen to best effect.
I also think he showed solid enough early speed in his two Handicap runs this year to suggest the drop in trip won’t be an issue, especially in this field.
A solid pace looks likely, which will suit. The only negative is the fact he’s drawn away from the pace. I hope that won’t be a big problem and he can get out of the gate well, to move right across and track the likely pace setters Big Impact and Buddy’s Beauty.
Off a lowly handicap mark, if the ground and drop in trip can bring out improvement he’ll be well-handicapped here.
Saying that, the market seems to have caught on this, I’m late to the party and the juice is squeezed out of the price rapidly. Wouldn’t go much shorter than 4s.
I’m intrigued by Ignac Lamar dropping down to 6 furlong again, with Oisin Murphy keeping the ride and the tongue tie applied.
The gelding caught the eye the last two times, although only made me took proper notice last time out after his excellent 3rd at Leicester.
That day Ignac Lamar was quickly forward, led as part of a duo on the far side. He was gutsy and only went down fighting late in the day, to finish 3rd, eventually.
That looked seriously strong form on speed ratings and the previous form of the winner and runner-up. He achieved a career-best 67 speed rating on turf as well.
Prior to this in a better race at Wolverhampton he missed the break but ran home pretty well, especially making excellent ground from three furlongs to the final furlong.
The speed for 6 furlongs is definitely there, and he may find 7 furlongs perhaps a stretch, especially if properly run.
Going back on the turf is intriguing. 0/7 but ran a number of times with credit and remains somewhat unexposed on the grass and sprint trips. Tactically the race could work out nicely, too. He has got the possible front-runner drawn right beside him, to possibly tow him nicely into the finish.
I have slight concerns over the fact that he has finished weakly on some occasions. So, hopefully the tongue tie is a help, although when he wore it the first time last year he bombed out.
But 6 furlongs against 0-70 opposition on fast ground and a straight track could be an ideal scenario on turf for him to get off the mark. He won off his current mark on the All-Weather over this trip and ran to a 70 speed rating. Judged on the latest effort he’s as good on turf.
Going against older horses for the first time is intriguing as well. He’s quite experienced, and could utilise WFA successfully here.
That was Royal Ascot. A frantic week. I definitely got sucked into more than in preceding years, for better or for worse.
Two big winners clearly helped. Especially as I continue to go through a pretty rotten spell with the ‘bread and butter’ stuff.
Hence it’s positive to see many Ascot selections outran their often big odds. beside the winners Waipiro (12/1) and Royal Champion (33/1), there were plenty of placed ones at big odds (Inquisitively 3rd @ 20/1, Bucanero Forte 3rd @ 19/1, Remarquee 2nd at 33/1).
No good for the P/L as win only backer, but good for the morale. And that’s certainly needed to keep the morale up as Saturday was another hugely disappointing blank, as my handicappers found ways to get beat.
Essme and Huddle Up got close, Shine’s Ambition looked with less than a furlong he may have it. Wasn’t to be. And it weighs on my mind. I know I got way too aggressive this month.
Perhaps it was simply the wrong time for it. Or it was mostly bad luck…. or perhaps lack of good judgement. That’s for another day to determine.
……..
6.45 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 6f
This appears to be a class 3 0-90 in the name only. It’s a big field, but not a competitive race. The pace scenario and draw takes more than half the the field out in addition.
I wouldn’t be too sure whether Rathbone could truly deliver in a proper class 3 Handicap these days, but he showed clear signs of a revival the last two times and has fallen to a tasty mark.
He’s one you’d hope can go forward from a solid #6 draw – this year he has shown better early gate speed, so I’m hoping he’ll do the same today.
Eight days ago his run at York in a competitive Handicap was certainly a highly encouraging performance.
Rathbone showed excellent early speed, was quick through the first four furlongs before gradually tiering. He was probably advantaged by riding on the far side, but still did very well to stay in front for long, before going backwards from 1 furlong out.
The preceding 3rd place effort at Doncaster was also a strong effort as he was significantly quicker through the first four furlongs than the winner and runner-up.
Both forms stand up and look strong. He lost another couple of pounds, down to 79 – he won off 90 and ran to a 86 speed rating last summer still. Most likely he’s not quite as good these days but with conditions to suit and a track and pace scenario putting him possibly at an advantage today he’s on a dangerous mark.
2-2-3-3-4-5-14. That’s how my selections finished. What a disaster of a day Friday was.
Although, Remarquee came rather close to winning at 33s, but ultimately, I don’t think the slight interference made a significant difference, being totally honest.
To make matters worse, Coppice won the Sandringham (one of my horses to follow but didn’t back here) and Alseeyerthere won the Redcar race – a huge eyecatcher last time out, but I decided to go with ungenuine Fiftyshadesofred at a poor price.
The margins of error are small in this game. Sometimes it’s down to luck, sometimes down to poor decision making. Poor decisions eats profit, though. Always.
….
3.05 Ascot: Group 3 Jersey Stakes, 7f
Enfajaar is one of my horses to follow this season and he showed nothing but an abundance of talent on his seasonal reappearance at Chelmsford last month.
He was a little bit keen early on, but then travelled strongly and kicked clear in the most impressive fashion in the final furlong.
The drop in trip is a slight question mark, because he may also stay a bit further than a mile. But this lad isn’t short of speed, at all. He can accelerate rapidly.
The stiff 7 furlongs at Ascot, with a good pace to chase, having likely front-running Covey drawn close by, could be a perfect scenario.
One only has to watch back his impressive debut performance at Newmarket last year over 7 furlongs, where he accelerated in impressive style from 3 furlongs out and stayed strongly to the line.
There is no doubt he’s pattern class, I believe. The only serious question mark I have is the fast ground. His two wins came on good to soft and on the All-Weather, he seems to hit the ground hard as well. If he acts on this surface, he should be the one to beat.
10pts win – Enfajaar @ 8/1
……
5.00 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 6f
Khanjar can run off his old 97 mark here before it goes up soon. He is a somewhat tricky sort and new headgear must make a difference to help him with sharpness.
However, if that does help, he’s one who could be underestimated here, still. He looks to have a huge engine and the potential to improve again.
His form can be a bit hit and miss and difficult to read. He ran better at York on his seasonal debut than the bare result. And even better next time at Hamilton.
There he was slowly away and right away at a disadvantage, multiplied by his draw and racing wide, hence away from the usually more favoured stands’ side.
He made great progress but ultimately had too much to do. Nonetheless, he ran four (+ equal in one) of six furlongs faster than the eventual winner, and was arguably unlucky.
I think it’s fair to say he has been a bit unfortunate in some of the bigger Handicaps he contest to date. Clearly there’s untapped potential. Whether it can be ever realised remains to be seen.
In any case he’s a strong, galloping sort who stays well over 6 furlongs and he should relish the stiff finish here at Ascot. The pace map looks somewhat puzzling, so there is a chance he’s not in the right spot.
10pts win – Khanjar @ 10/1
……….
……
3.52 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Vecchio could be overpriced if he can cope with the drop in trip and potentially muddling pace on faster ground.
However, he looked last time out as if a drop in trip would suit, showed solid early speed over 6 furlongs as a juvenile and ran solid on better ground as well.
I liked his comeback run off a break and gelding operation last time at Goodwood quite a lot, where he tried a mile:
He tracked the pace early on, was pretty keen through the first half of the race, though. Didn’t enjoy the clearest of run in the home straight and had to delay his full effort multiple times, also hung toward the far rail.
I hope from the #1 draw he’ll be on the right side of the track, can bounce out of the gate, grab that rail and just makes it all to use his early speed and stamina to stay on strongly.
Off 77 he could be quite well-handicapped in this field.
10pts win – Vecchio @ 9/2
…..
4.14 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Wide open and competitive. Where’s the pace to come from? Probably more toward the far rail and high numbers. That is a positive as it brings Huddle Up right into the equation.
He showed excellent form in all starts this year and looked like he could be a bit better than his current 73 rating in the right race.
He was found out for speed and/or class over the minimum trip the last to times, although ran on with plenty of zest.
A flattish, uncomplicated 6f on decent but not fast ground looks possibly ideal, and even more so as he drops down in class again. Even though this competitive, it’s easier than the last two races.
He also produced a huge effort on his seasonal reappearance at Thirsk, where he achieved a 72 speed rating as well. It’s fair to assume, now fully fit, track, trip and ground possibly to suit, he can improve back to the level he showed in Ireland before.
10pts win – Huddle Up @ 13/2
……
5.13 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Huge chance for Shine’s Ambition to win a race. This is a poor race, and his most recent effort at this track, albeit over an additional furlong, was huge.
The form looks good with the second having won well in the meantime. The drop to 6 furlongs seems sure to suit and he looks to have the ideal draw to grab that far rail.
Last time over 7 furlongs he enjoyed a quick start, led from the front as part of duo and travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. He was beaten by winner from off the pace.
Still a maiden, but he ran twice 62+ speed ratings in the past and now down to a 62 mark with the drop to 6f he’s really interesting off a career-lowest mark.
10pts win – Shine’s Ambition @ 11/2
…..
8.50 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
How far is Essme going to win this? I guess it depends how she got out of bed. The mare is hardly the most trustworthy horse to back.
In saying that, if she can run to the level of form shown last time over this course and distance she’s likely to win this. That was a strong performance, the runner-up won in the meantime, and this time she has a better draw.
Three weeks ago she tracked the pace on the far side, was quite prominently ridden. She travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages.
She did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD, and also represented a career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground is ideal, which she finds here.
Waipiro delivered the goods. He won with so much in hand – I was hopeful he’d be too good for this field with a clear run, but this performance was a surprise, especially given the way the race panned out.
He definitely did it the hard way. It didn’t look like it would happen for a long time. A bad bump by a rival soon after the start, lit up, far off the pace, didn’t seem to travel well, the gap wasn’t opening…. until it magically did and whoosh off he was, never to be seen again by his rivals.
Let’s not forget what a huge eyecatcher he was in the Derby, and also how well he ran twice earlier this season. A drop to 10 furlongs, with a good pace… he was always to go close if he could get a run.
Not unhappy with Physique. He was right there for a long time. He faded in the final furlong, but that’s okay. It was a run for the money and a big price.
Good week overall; yet, longing for a “normal” winner in some random class 5 or 6 Handicap as well. Tomorrow?
…….
4.20 Ascot: Coronation Stakes, 1m
It’s hard, if not even impossible to oppose Tahiyra after her sensation performance in the Irish 1000 Guineas where she quickened away like a true superstar.
That performance wasn’t quite as strong on speed figures as it was visually, but the Dermot Weld trained filly produced a career-best and excellent 104 speed rating at Newmarket in the British equivalent last month.
She’s clearly extremely talented, at the same time possibly vulnerable given this is her third Group 1 in the space of six weeks on the quickest ground she has ever encountered.
Dermot Weld was on the record saying prior to the 1000 Guineas that he felt the filly could have done with an additional two weeks of preparation. Has she been rushed to run twice in this short space of time?
There are dangers here, also from a tactical point of view. On the round course it can be an advantage to make all or be certainly close to the pace. You would think Mediate could be in a prime spot when turning for home. Runner-up at the Curragh, this race could be run to suit her perfectly.
That says, bar Meditate, there is little opposition likely good enough to match a Tahiyra, even if not quite at her peak. Unless one of the other fillies in the race can step up significantly.
The one I would have hopes to improve significantly with experience is Remarquee. She was a huge disappointment at Newmarket, where she didn’t seem happy at any stage and found zero once under pressure.
But I can’t shake off the huge impressions she gave in her first two career runs, once on debut last year at Salisbury when she finished like a train, and no less so at Newbury in the Fred Darling two weeks ago.
She looked raw and green on both occasions. The speed figures weren’t strong, but her finishing speed screams talent. The better ground is intriguing. Even though her two wins came on soft, I have the feeling decent ground can bring out more improvement.
Prior to the Guineas Ralph Beckett was quite hopeful that he would have a potential star filly on his hands. There is still the potential for her to turn out and become a proper Group 1 filly.
Whether the race is going to be run to suit remains to be seen. Nonetheless, at the given prices she’s worth a shot at this.
10pts win – Remarquee @ 33/1
……
5.00 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 1m
Coppice is an intriguing filly, and one from my horses to follow list this season. There’s every chance she’s well handicapped off 97 after her successful return to form in a Novice Stakes where she made amends for a disappointing defeat in the Nell Gwyn.
She hasn’t achieved any speed rating of note yet, and I’m not yet convinced that she truly gets a mile when the pace is on.
This test in a large field and with a stiff finish doesn’t strike me as the right one, especially as she can be slowly away as well. She’s certainly too short to back.
The pace side should be the stands’ side, with high numbers likely to dominate. That brings a filly into play that caught the eye earlier this month at Kempton.
Marksman Queen finished seriously well in a Handicap there over a mile, nearly overcoming a sluggish start as she travelled well off the pace was held together until about 2f out before showing a strong response when asked for an effort to come home much the best.
She couldn’t quite get back to the 4-year-old winner, who ran well for a long time in the Kensington Palace earlier this week.
She wasn’t slowly away in any of her two starts prior, hence I hope it was just ‘one of those days’. A poor start would severely compromise her chances in this competitive field.
But if she gets way well, then she could be very well handicapped, off 86, only 2lb higher than at Kempton. She won well at Southwell on her seasonal reappearance as well.
I reckon that perhaps the hood took off some of her early excitement at Kempton. She was keen in her previous races. Hopefully she is better used to it now.
Given her breeding Marksman Queen may have options to move up in trip, but a strongly run mile looks ideal for now. She should also improve for switching to turf on fast ground.
10pts win – Marksman Queen @ 15/1
……..
5.35 Ascot: Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes, 1m 4f
King Of Steel ran a massive race in the Derby on his seasonal reappearance and a return to that level of form will see him certainly with a prime chance. Can he repeat such a tremendous run?
Different track, different pace scenario, stiff finish. And he got the splits when needed, having enjoyed the near perfect race. He was clearly beaten by a brilliant horse on the day, and the same opposition isn’t present here.
But taking into account that this is going to be a totally different type of race, one can question his odds-on price tag. Also, I am not sold that he would stay a properly run 12 furlongs, especially with a stiff finish.
Also: on speed ratings he ran to a fine treble digit figure of 100. But the Aiden O’Brien trained Continuous achieve a 99 speed figure at York in the Dante over a trip possibly slightly short of his optimum when he also needed the run, most likely.
Continuous is one my horses to follow this year and I can forgive him that poor French Derby run. He didn’t have any real excuses, other than that it was a competitive renewal. So wellbeing is taken with some question marks attached.
Ryan Moore remains quite positive whenever he speaks about Continuous, so that’s certainly noteworthy. There should be more to come, given he didn’t have an ideal spring preparation, and strikes me as a relentless galloper who should enjoy Ascot.
The other one I do like is Artistic Star. I liked him for the Derby, and even though things didn’t work out on the day or him, the inexperienced colt showed great promise in the second half of his race.
After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.
Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.
He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.
I’ll split my stake here: I really only can see three horses to win. Those are the aforementioned. Because Arrest over 12 furlongs, fast ground, stiff finish, looks not the test to suit him.
Fiftyshadesofred was rather unfortunate the other day at Catterick when he missed the start somewhat, as he can do, got behind and stuck on the inside rail and found himself badly short of room at a crucial stage over 3 furlongs out.
He ran pretty well in the circumstances and confirmed the excellent performance shown weeks earlier at Ayr.
That day he overcame a sluggish start and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. He found plenty under pressure and was only beaten late by two rivals from off the pace.
Before that he didn’t stay a mile but two runs back ran seriously well at Chelmsford over 7 furlongs. That looks his trip, and the fact he ran to 65 and 64 speed ratings now the last two times over this trip, on two different surfaces, gives his form credibility.
Another pound down, he looks seriously well-handicapped off 64, as he ran to a 65 speed rating at Ayr, in line with another 64 at Chelmsford in April.
This straight track may suit him better than sharp turning tracks. The field is competitive but with the 5lb claim of Connor Planas he should have too much in hand.
10pts win – Fiftyshadesofred @ 4/1
…….
5.16 Redcar: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
A race for maidens. Some of the higher rated horses make appeal as this is easier for them. But I’m intrigued by Lola’s Moment, who knocked on the door a few times before and ran a huge race last time at Wetherby.
She was slightly sluggish away but quickly found her stride and moved forward to track a hard pace. Eventually she took up the lead from the 2 furlongs marker until she got heavily challenged from over one furlong out.
She briefly accepted the challenge before she ran out of gas and faded away.
This was her comeback run after a break since September 2022. The filly looks potentially exposed but may be capable of progressing as a 3yo. Sprint trips look her game.
She’s a full-sister to recent 5.5f winner Alfred Cove (OR57). As she now drops to a similar rating she may be underestimated over a fast five with a good draw that she has got here.
10pts win – Lola’s Moment @ 10/1
………….
7.50 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
I firmly believe this is Latin Five’s for the taking. He is in excellent form, as evidence by his last two runs. Especially last time out at Nottingham he ran to a level of form that should see him hard to beat here if he can repeat.
He travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by a horse on the stands’ side.
The acceleration mid-race was quite something, for this level. He also achieved a 53 speed rating. He ran to 51 and 54 this season as well, so that 1lb hike doesn’t make too much of a difference.
He’s certainly well handicapped on last-years form. Now clearly back in form he’s the one to beat with a good draw to attack from as well.
Huge run by Inquisitively to finish a gallant 3rd in the Windsor Castle today. Another big price hitting the post but the ball didn’t get over the line, sadly.
Bay Bridge didn’t get the best of runs but never looked like he could challenge anyway. Wen Moon was an ugly watch. Graham Lee gave the gelding a shocking ride, willingly or unwillingly…. Azaim a big drifter and beaten early.
…..
5.00 Ascot: Britannia Stakes, 1m
As competitive as it gets, yet I feel quite strong about Physique, who looks seriously overpriced if he could settle in the early stages.
That’s the key question as he moves up in trip again. There’s enough to believe the trip won’t be an issue stamina wise, especially the way he finished last time out.
But he can be keen early on, and that would be a deadly sin in this race. His young rider doesn’t have all that much experience, either. There is a clear risk.
On the other hand, plenty of pace looks to be present in this field. It should be a fast race, and that will suit Physique, who should have a solid chance from the #8 draw to get into a prominent position, as he likes to be, normally.
I hope connections don’t opt for an experiment where they hold him up, in the hope to preserve his stamina. If that is the case you can turn off the TV after the first two furlongs. It’s another risk, worth taking at the price, though.
Physique couldn’t have been more impressive earlier this month at Goodwood, which was a superb follow-up from an already excellent performance a month earlier over the same course and distance.
He got caught wide and without cover from the highest draw and as a consequence struggled to find cover pretty much for the majority of the race.
The gelding was clearly lit up and his chances decimated by the halfway mark. He also was ever so slightly impeded by a tiering front-runner from 2 furlongs out before he finished extremely strongly – in fact, he ran home the fastest over the last two furlongs, regardless.
It’s fair to say with a better draw and a little bit more in-running luck, he would have won. Still lightly raced, Physique has the scope to continue his progress, especially off his current 91 handicap mark.
He has shown to handle fast ground without a problem, so drying conditions aren’t a worry. He looks ideally suited to this type of test, if the pace is on and is most likely well-handicapped.
10pts win – Physique @ 35/1
……….
5.35 Ascot: Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes, 1m 2f
I’m a fan of Epictetus, and not only because of his name. An incredibly consistent colt, he ran to 93, 97 and 91 speed ratings this year in his three runs and mixed it with strong opposition the last two times.
He may struggle to win a Group 1, but down in class he’s a massive runner over a course and distance, on possibly perfect ground.
However, this is a competitive renewal of the race. Progressive Drumroll has to give weight away but will be suited by the likely strong pace.
Torito is another serious prospect for the Gosden yard. Lightly raced, progressive and a fine winner of a hot Handicap at Epsom earlier this month.
Caernarfon ran a super race in the Oaks to finish a strong third. The drop in trip is likely to suit her and she looks competitive against the males down in grade.
The likes of unexposed Expolanet, or Kevin Ryan’s Heron Stakes winner Captain Winter can’t be easily dismissed either.
One who I feel is almost certain to enjoy the test, and appears overpriced, is Waipiro, though.
He endured a disaster of a run in the Derby where he was slowly away, as a consequence was caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around very wide for a run on the outside.
He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out, somewhat understandably.
There is also every possibility that he didn’t get the trip, in any case. Though, I thought he actually confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket earlier this season where he kicked on in fine style to win a Novice Stakes, before he finished a strong runner-up in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated, though, and certainly seems to be underappreciated in the betting in this easier grade as he drops down to 10 furlongs.
He ran to a 97 speed rating at Lingfield also. That stands up seriously well in this field. Yes, others could improve past that, though not too many look potentially capable of that, right now, at least. While Waipiro himself is open to improvement over this trip.
10pts win – Waipiro @ 12/1
…..
5.45 Leopardstown: 47-70 Handicap, 7f
This could be a great opportunity for Punk Poet, who seems overpriced. He drops in grade, this is much easier than all his races this year, over a trip he has no issue with and on ground likely to suit.
He dropped significantly in the ratings over last weeks and is down to a dangerously low 69 handicap mark now. There are clear and obvious reasons for that, though, I felt he hinted a return to some form a few times as well.
Back in April in a hot race over 6 furlongs he travelled strongly and finished well, and last month at the Curragh in a super competitive Apprentice Handicap he showed his usual good early speed and ran well until fading badly from 2 furlongs out in deep ground.
Leopardstown tomorrow should ride a bit better, and that will suit. The pace doesn’t look too hot, so from #8 draw he should be able to move across easily to have an ideal spot behind likely pace setter Maggie And Me or Turbine.
If Punk Poet could find anything close to last summers form in these conditions then he’s a big danger to all.
Last year he won off 82 and 83, also ran to an 82 speed rating. He’s versatile ground- and distance wise but probably 7 furlongs is his optimum.
It needed a 33/1 winner to break this most annoying losing run. Thanks to Royal Champion (16/1 SP) who travelled as wide as sweetly through the race and won, despite carrying a penalty, like a horse in a different league to the rest.
A confident, no-nonsense ride by Jack Mitchell. He seemed to have clear instructions to avoid trouble at all costs. And so he did.
That means my rotten run of 31 conseqeuitive losing selections is over. One more and it would have been the longest losing run ever for me.
It’s a funny game. Some big prices knocked on the door lately. Including Bucanero Fuerte earlier on Tuesday, with a great run for 3rd in the Coventry. But it wasn’t to be. Never mind. Today is a good day.
Also back in profit for the month, of course. Which is the most important thing. Always.
I would hope things turn back to some form of normality now, because they were not normal lately. I haven’t been doing anything fundamentally different and liked most selections, even with the blessing of hindsight.
One a different note: all eyes are on Royal Ascot this week, naturally. My eyes were on the announcement for the final field for the Durban July that took place this morning as well, though. The big race is less than two weeks away.
Final runners, weights and the draw were announced. The draw played a lesser role in the past, though. Class found a way.
Therefore, the #14 draw for Safe Passage – the one I fancy strongly – is less of a negative, as maybe even a blessing in disguise, as it may ensure now that there is actually a price available for him on the day that makes me want to back him.
………
4.20 Ascot: Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, 1m 2f
Small but select field for this renewal of the POW. Questions evolve around the pace. Who’s going to do the donkey work?
Luxembourg showed he can make it all, if needed. But it may fall to Classic Causeway who has shown plenty of good early speed in the US and he may find it hard not to pull his way to the front over this trip, if no other rival moves decisively forward early on.
Last years Belmont Derby winner could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead from the front, though, given his excellent speed. Although, the ground may not be quite fast enough for him and if all things go normal, he simply shouldn’t have the class.
2021 Derby hero Adayar returned successfully to the track at Newmarket in the Gordon Richards a few weeks ago. He confirmed his wellbeing. He ran a huge race in the Champion Stakes back in October, a performance that warranted an upgrade.
If he can run to a similar level of form as a 5-year-old then he’s firmly in the mix. On the other hand, in those five runs since his impressive Epsom success, his best speed rating achieved is a rather lowly 90 – for this grade at least.
My Prospero has hinted plenty of ability throughout his career and was arguably an unfortunate runner-up in the St James’s Palace twelve months ago. He’s yet to convince on speed ratings, though, hence may be found out against the very best here, as otherwise a massive career-best would be required.
Mostahdaf looks a bit short of class as well, if it coms to winning a Group 1. He deserves to be here and take his chance, but doesn’t seem to be top-class.
The same could not be said about Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, as they are multiple Group 1 winners. They meet here once again after their exciting fight in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at Curragh earlier this year.
Luxembourg got the better that day. He was forced to make all with no other pace in the race. He ensured that this was not a test of speed but rather a proper race to the line as evidence by his strong 110 speed rating – a career-best for the colt.
He looked a bit awkward in the closing stages, as he tends to do. At the same time he was brave and gutsy, fending off the challenge from Bay Bridge in the final furlong.
One could argue he had the run of the race. Certainly he got first run and that was possibly an advantage as Bay Bridge got stuck in a pocket all the way to the two furlong marker and only got out with less than 1.5 furlongs to go.
Bay Bridge had to find his stride quickly, and it was impressive to see how quickly he was able to get into top gear. Yet, there wasn’t enough time to run down Luxembourg, though.
On the other hand, Luxembourg may have been too good, anyway. He’s 3/3 over the trip now and clearly is the exceptional colt in line with the the vibes from Aiden O’Brien, who never wavered in his admirations.
Can Bay Bridge make up the half a lengths gap that was between them at the Curragh? Probably. Slightly different track and a different pace scenario can change the outcome.
The 5-year-old should be in his prime right now. And that’s confirmed by the 109 speed rating he ran at the Curragh, and improvement from his a fine 100 performance in the Prix Ganay on his seasonal reappearance.
The ground has been a hot topic of debate all Tuesday. Bay Bridge probably doesn’t love it properly fast. Genuine good ground will be perfect, though, and it looks likely that’s what we’ll have on Wednesday.
Ascot is the place of Bay Bridge’s biggest success, the British Champion Stakes back in October last year. He’s a highly consistent colt, one who usually puts his best foot forward, and nothing less is expected this time.
On everything we know there is little between Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, the two main contenders, in my view – hence from a price point of view Bay Bridge has to be the logical value choice.
10pts win – Bay Bridge @ 7/2
…..
6.10 Ascot: Windsor Castle Stakes, 5f
How is this race going to work out from a pace perspective? There seems to be plenty of early speed. Over the stiff five at Ascot this may develop into a test of who is the fastest over the minimum trip and does stay a bit further than that.
Interpreting the pace map looks tricky, especially the way the sprint races developed on the first day. I make an educated guess and think it probably will develop into a mad dash to the line where everyone from anywhere could win.
In any case, the one I like against the field is Inquisitively. He has to step up to challenge the better fancied runners, like Barnwell Boy, who ran in impressive 90 speed rating on debut, or seriously progressive Maximum Impact.
Especially Barnwell Boy looks a rock solid favourite, especially if the stands’ side continue to ride faster. He was incredibly impressive on debut, but is a skinny price for the nature of this race.
Inquisitively in contrast, has only a 2nd place to his name that came in a class 5 Novice race at Windsor. Far from sexy. However, that form rates strongly in my view and may be underestimated.
For one, the race has worked out well in the meantime, and visuals meet the clock here too.
The overall time as well as the pace they ran for the first three- and four furlongs compared strongly to the other 5- and 6 furlong sprints for older horses on the same card.
That was mainly down to Inquisitively, who overcame the wide draw as he started quickly and gradually moved over the to the stands’ rail where he led and set a hot pace.
It was impressive to see him outbattle the eventual third, who had a better draw and was ridden with more restraint and who has won in the meantime as well.
That was over 6 furlongs and he appeared to have no issue with a drop to the minimum trip. In fact, I got the impression a stiff five may be an ideal scenario.
The draw is a question mark. As the going on Tuesday favoured the low numbers on the far side, according to the going stick. But wit no further rain expected I have hopes the track dries out well enough that tomorrow afternoon any bias has evaporated and we should get a fair race.
Since writing this post and backing the horse at big odds earlier today there has been a bit of money for him. Happy with my overall price, but anything lower than 15s and I probably wouldn’t have been writing this, given the competitive nature of this race, being totally honest.
10pts win – Inquisitively @ 20/1
……
3.30 Hamilton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Captain Vallo ran a huge race when finishing 3rd at Thirsk last time out. That was his seasonal reappearance and he could hardly have made a bigger impression that day.
He had to overcome the widest draw, far away from he favourable stands’ side. Yet, he travelled strongly in his group, made excellent progress to challenge in the closing stages, before getting tired in the last half furlong.
A superb comeback run. He must be in serious form and this easier race, down into 0-70, gives him a super chance as a winner over the course and distance.
Saying that, he’s not tremendously well-handicapped. But 6 furlongs at Hamilton on decent ground looks an ideal scenario in a race where not much else catches the eye.
10pts win – Captain Vallo @ 7/2
……..
7.10 Ripon: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Wen Moon had excuses last time at Nottingham as he hang his race away after making smooth progress in the middle of the race to go upside with the leader.
He showed tendencies before of hanging to his left side, hence, possibly a track with a guiding rail to his left would be ideal. The way the 6f at Ripon rides could provide exactly that.
The #4 draw is perhaps a bit too far away from that guiding rail, though, and a concern to get there early with plenty of pace around, too.
However, cheek-pieces are added and they may help him to focus better in the closing stages, as well as to be sharply away from the gate. He showed solid early speed in the past and is a course winner as well.
His current 83 rating gives him a big chance in this field, judged on his Pontefract victory in class 3 last month. He was disadvantaged by the widest draw and had to settle in rear.
As a consequence he turned widest for home for a run, while going best, as he made smooth progress to hit the front at the final furlong marker before he hang badly to his left. Nonetheless, he won well with plenty in hand I believe.
It was an impressive performance, given the deep ground and doing so against the pace bias. Wen Moon is almost certainly better on decent (not proper fast perhaps) ground. Only 3lb higher than at Pontefract, still lightly raced and gelded during winter – there’s more to come.
10pts win – Wen Moon @ 8/1
…….
8.10 Ripon: Classified Stakes, 6f
I backed Azaim the last two times and seemingly follow this lad over the cliff.
He was incredibly disappointing at Catterick, but was beaten before the race got hot, in fact, because of the way he started and the position he found himself in.
As a 28/1 shot in a hot contest at Carlisle he improved dramatically when sent to the front. He was ran down eventually, but it was a strong effort that confirmed the promise he showed at Musselburgh last month was real.
Judged on those two performances I feel he’s better than all of his rivals here. He looks capable of running to mid 50’s in the right conditions right now, especially judged on that Musselburgh run where first and second appeared quite well-handicapped.
No more excuses, though. He’s got the #9 draw here. Ideal to attack from the front, grab the rail and wave good bye to the rest.
Horseracing - International . COM 