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Betting

Saturday Selections: 4th May 2024

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1.45 Newmarket: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Mums Tipple impressed in two of his three runs this year on the sand and suggested the way he finished those races that he retains plenty of talent as a now 7-year-old gelding.

He’s not the most prolific winner these days, but he could be quite well handicapped in the context of the race, with fitness most likely assured and a handicap mark that may underestimate him.

He drops back to 6 furlongs, which should suit. His best performances have come over this trip and any rain won’t be a hindrance to his chances at all. The #1 gate is a question mark – but I hope Ryan Moore in the saddle will make some good decisions early on in a race with not too much pace.

In any case, I must go back to his three runs in 2024, with the most recent one at Kempton catching the eye in no uncertain terms, when runner-up behind smart Mount Athos.

He travelled in rear and wasn’t advantaged by a slow pace, being poorly positioned, compared to the winner, who enjoyed an easy race from the front. Mums Tipple made eyecatching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest as well to be denied by a head in the end.

He pulled too hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior at Wolverhampton but was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held on his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield.

Now a return to turf, off a 97 handicap mark, that offers opportunities. He was competitive off 100 last summer in some hot races and still ran to a 94 speed rating a Ascot.

Key will be the start, though: if slowly away, as he can be, and held up, in a race that may not be ran at a furious pace, it’s likely game over there and then. But you trust Ryan Moore to read the pace chart, so I’m hopeful he’ll navigate Mums Tipple into a solid position to give the gelding every chance.

10pts win – Mums Tipple @ 10/1

……..

2.05 Goodwood: Listed Fillies’ Stakes, 1m

Choisya was the one to take out from the Snowdrop Stakes last month, where she got desperately close against the run of the race.

Caught wide throughout, given the way the race panned out in front of her, she made superb progress from halfway through the race, always turning widest, and it was her class that put her into a challenging position with two furlongs to go.

In a battle to the line she had to pay tribute to those earlier exertions eventually, still only beaten by a head, and also finishing the closing stages with the fastest sectionals.

The filly isn’t low mileage compared to some other rivals today. But she was progressive last season, has shown versatility if it comes to ground and racing position, and her last three efforts, a close second at Newmarket in October, and two subsequent All-Weather efforts, give the impression there’s still more to come.

She handles the soft ground and shouldn’t be too far away from likely pace setter Orchid Bloom. This filly sets the standard on speed ratings and looks rock solid, if ready to go off a break.

At given prices, I favour Choisya, though. She hasn’t fully convinced on speed ratings yet, but I firmly believe she’s got the ability to run a big one, in the right conditions – hopefully today.

10pts win – Choisya @ 11/2

………

3.35 Newmarket: Group 1 2000 Guineas, 1m

Can you oppose City Of Troy? if you believe the hype that surrounds the Aiden O’Brien trained colt, you absolutely can not.

On pure numbers COT is clearly the one to beat: unbeaten as a juvenile, a fine 77 speed rating on debut, followed by two 100+ performances, to land the Superlative and Dewhurst Stakes.

That’s the sign of a classy individual, although, not of the “best ever”… yet. He still has to improve going into his classic campaign, and must prove that he has trained on. There’re some question marks looming of Justify offspring in this regard.

The other question: is there anything in this field good enough to beat him? Ten rivals go head to head with City Of Troy.

Haatem won the Craven Stakes showing a lovely attitude last month. His race fitness must count for something and he achieved a decent enough speed rating to give the performance merit. He’s certainly not low mileage, though, and one has to wonder how much more improvement is left.

Unbeaten Ghostwriter won the Royal Lodge in good style when last seen and is one the more likely candidates to improve to the level required to land a Guineas.

He’s achieved two mid-90 speed ratings last year. That’s a solid platform to head into this year, although also, purely judged on that form, still requires a significant step up.

Rosallion, for one, appears the main challenger for City Of Try, if the betting is an accurate reflection. Already a Group 1 winner, he stayed on well to win the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last October. However, a son of Blue Point stretching out to a mile on this level, I have issues to imagine. Never say never, though.

Task Force is an intriguing horse. second in the Middle Park, yet to race beyond 6 furlongs, but possibly suited by the step up in trip, open to plenty of improvement, could be a different horses as a 3-year-old over this trip, especially after a win operation.

Night Rider was an impressive winner at Southwell earlier this year. Visually an impressive performance, I’m not yet sold on his ability to bring this speed to a mile.

Alyanaabi was third in the Dewhurst behind City Of Troy. He’s got plenty to find judged on that performance. So has Iberian, a long way beaten that day. Though, the step up to a mile will surely suit.

Notable Speech remains unbeaten in three runs this year. All came on the All-Weather over 7 furlongs and didn’t set the world alight on speed rating. Hard to judge how good he is moving up to a mile.

Ten Bob Tony won a Conditions race last month. But this is much more demanding and I struggle to see how he’s anywhere near good enough for this level.

In a summary, one could argue: there’s plenty of unknowns in this race. City Of Troy sets a good standard and the fact Ballydoyle sends him as their sole representative speaks of a high degree of confidence.

Nonetheless, I’m prepared to take the odds-on favourite on because I simply can’t leave Inisherin unbacked. One of my Horses to Follow this year, he appears somewhat underappreciated in this field, yet is one clearly open to tons of improvement.

This son of Shamardal was beaten only half a lengths on debut last September when the market expected nothing from him(50/1). Possibly well drawn on that day, in fairness, he travelled the best of all to 2 furlongs out and was only beaten by a vastly more experienced horse eventually.

That form doesn’t look too shabby, and he also achieved a pretty decent 76 speed rating for a debut performance.

He got his maiden victory ticket off in March at Newcastle with a visually impressive run on his seasonal return.

One can argue he was flattered by that performance because he got the run of the race from the front in a crawl of a race. Nonetheless, the way he easily sprinted home, without ever being really touched, hitting strong sectionals in the final part of the race, screams talent.

Even more so impressive he was able to show this speed and change of gear as the breeding suggests somewhere beyond a mile will be his optimum trip.

Inisherin looks sure to improve for the experience and a step up in trip may be ideal on pedigree post Guineas as he’s out of smart Ajman Princess who was a Ribblesdale Stakes runner-up and winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet.

With that in mind, I feel he should enjoy the likely fast pace in this edition of the 2000 Guineas, that could ensure the race turns into a stamina test in the end.

10pts win – Inisherin @ 49/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 13th April 2024

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4.00 Aintree: Grand National Handicap Chase, 4m 2f

Backing the winner of the Grand National is one that has eluded me so far. Not sure that’s going to change this year, but I feel two horses are overpriced and offer solid value chances.

I was sweet on Mr Incredible twelve months ago, and only one career run later, he’s nearly as big as back then, when he looked to be in with a solid shout until the saddle slipped after the 24th and Bryan Hayes went off board.

It’s hard to say whether he would have gone close, but I felt he went better than I ever imagined, given he can be a tricky horse. He jumped okay, for the most part, and made good progress when the race started to get serious.

He has been off the track since then, until a reappearance at the Midlands Grand National. That looked a superb warm-up. He travelled well, jumped well, made eye-catching progress and ran home strongly for 2nd.

You’d absolutely bank on a Willie Mullins horse to improve for that run under his belt. I’ve no doubt is going to be primed for a big run in the National.

The reasons to back him in 2023 also hold largely true in 2024. He remains a low-mileage 8-year-old, who showed tons of promise in his last four runs, but has only been seen a handful times over the last two seasons.

He’s 6lb higher this time, but that’s not a worry. He remains open to plenty of progress over these staying trips, especially with ground likely to suit.

I’m surprise to see such big prices on the exchanges available for him. I’d saw him closer to 12s. So, hopefully it’s second time lucky…

But if not, then I hope the Skelton trained mare Galia Des Liteaux can do the job! I’m not too fuzzed about the seemingly poor record for mares in the National. This is a changed race, easier fences, less runners, and I feel this test will suit the mare seriously well.

One has to take a leap of faith first though. She was a desperately disappointing beaten odds-on favourite in a Listed Mares Chase back in February. However, prior to that, she stayed on seriously strongly in a hot Handicap at Warwick, to finish 2nd over 3m 5f.

She’s a grinder, somewhat one paced, but with only 9 starts over fences, she’s lightly raced enough to believe there is more to come over marathon trips.

Galia Des Liteaux improved nicely this year in three of her four starts, only out of the money in the most recent Exeter run. Only once did she race beyond 3m 1f, and that we this seasons strong runner-up performance at Warwick.

There should be plenty of pace in this years National. On the current ground that will ensure a proper test of stamina. That could suit this mare to see her outrun her big price tag.

5pts win – Mr Incredible @ 18/1 (MB)
5pts win – Galia Des Liteaux @ 35/1 (SM)

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6.00 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

This looks an ideal opportunity for Berry Clever to get off the mark after a highly promising seasonal reappearance at Southwell recently.

He was significantly hampered soon after the start and couldn’t move closer to the pace as a result, which wasn’t ideal in that race. Nonetheless he travelled well into the straight and made initially quite strong progress against the dreaded inside rail.

One can forgive him for getting tired in the closing stages and you would hope he can improve from having this run under his belt, in any case.

Still winless, but the gelding was somewhat ‘unfortunate’ in a couple of his runs as a juvenile last season. There is enough in his profile to believe he’s capable of winning a race off his current mark. 63 could prove a little bit lenient, now that he also moves up in trip.

On turf, only his second run on grass, and over a mile, which often brings out improvement for Expert Eye offspring, and dropping into a slightly grade too, with De Sousa once again on board, he looks an intriguing horse in an open contest.

The rain is the one question mark I have, if it turns the ground properly soft. It’s that lingering doubt I have whether he’s get home in that case. But the pace may not be overly hot, so it’s worth the risk.

10pts win – Berry Clever @ 6/1 (SM/MB)

Betting

Saturday Selections: 6th April 2024

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2.50 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

I’m inclined to give ultra-consistent veteran Reverberation a big chance in this race, despite the overall openness of the contest.

He’s one of the few uncomplicated horses in the field, and also highly likely to enjoy the run of the race from a prominent racing position.

That could be crucial today: not too many want to go forward. Some of the contenders are prone to miss the break. Hence, the #11 draw may not be a big deal, as Reverberation is a solid starter and should be able to have an uninterrupted way toward the front of the pack.

Off his current mark he’s handicapped to go well, no doubt. He bumped into a highly progressive winner last time, but ran in line with those performances he showed all winter that suggested he’s got possibly another win in him off 56, in the right circumstances.

The form of his two wins at Chelmsford over a mile and 10 furlongs back in December and January worked out quite well too, ensuring his credentials have real substance.

The 5lb claim of red-hot Joe Leavy should come in handy. He seems a good judge of pace and ridden Reverberation last time as well.

The main danger I thought could be top-weight Lucidity. The light-raced filly could have too much class in this grade, if ready to go on her seasonal reappearance. But the market suggests otherwise, for the now at least, and she’s one to keep an eye on for another day.

Favourite Mc’Ted comes here in good form. He likes this course and distance but he’s handicapped to he’s best form under a 5lb now. Given he can be moody at the start, it’s a risky proposition.

Twilight Guest sees money all morning and is competitive in this grade. 0-17 tells a story, though, and he tends to be seriously keen if the pace is slow.

That always brings me back to Reverberation. The fact he drops ever so slightly down in grade, with a good pace scenario of a fair mark gives him a good chance to score today.

10pts win – Reverberation @ 6/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 30th March 2024

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Super run by Misty Grey yesterday in the competitive All-Weather Sprint Handicap at Newcastle. He finished a gallant 2nd.

Ultimately beaten beaten by a stronger winner from off the pace. Nonetheless, a huge run given his 16/1 price and can’t ask for more.

Unfortunately Shoot To Kill missed the break and had a mountain to climb there and then – too much, but most likely he wouldn’t have had a chance with the impressive Cephalus in any case. Tempus run as the price suggested, sadly. Tracked the pace but wasn’t good enough on the day.

…….

4.40 Cork: Handicap, 5f

I have been weighing up all last night and this morning whether to get involved in this race. It’s competitive. Unexposed Goal Exceeded is potentially the “x-factor”, hard to gauge but possibly well-handicapped.

Two Stars and Stag Night meet once again after they locked horns a fortnight ago and also at the Curragh in their respective final runs last season.

Two Stars the likely pace angle in the race, this is where the pace will develop. That’s a positive for Stag Night, but also lightly raced Goal Exceeded.

I’m questioning whether this is the right trip for Goal Exceeded, though. Perhaps an additional furlong is much more likely to see him to best effect, for that he could be well-handicapped today on Handicap debut.

Nonetheless, as a 3-year-old against some seasoned sprinters, on deep ground, appears quite a stiff task, and with that in mind I find his price too short.

Two Stars remains quite unexposed, too, and has shown excellent early speed in all his runs since a slow start in his debut run. He ran to 82 on speed ratings in his final race last year at the Curragh. The handicapper has been lenient to leave his mark untouched after that as well as the recent third placed effort.

He’s an obvious chance today, but quite a short price, and may face some competition for the pace as well.

This his is competitive and the likes of Never Shout Never, mud lover Mickey The Steel, dangerously well-handicap Mehman or the mare Magical Vision can’t be ruled out.

What gets me always back to Stag Night is the fact this should turn today into a a testing enough 5 furlongs, with a couple in the field likely to keep Two Stars honest up front, which will be a huge help to his chances.

Stag night is still low mileage for a 6-year-old, he had issues with his feet, reportedly. Nonetheless, last season in his final two runs on deep ground over 5- and 6f he was able to produce significantly improvement performances.

An 84 speed rating for his Naas win, bettered by a 91 speed rating when a super 3rd in a tight finish at the Curragh. He clearly was well when he returned at the Curragh earlier this months too, as he looked good in the parade ring where I saw him prior to the race in flesh.

He ran really well and “won” the race on his side, but couldn’t live with the turn of foot of the eventual winner, who made a move away from the pace, though, and was possibly seen too late as well.

Stag Night is up a pound for the run, but intriguingly has the assistance of young apprentice Danny Power, who claims invaluable 10lbs. This is only his second ride under rules.

The young apprentice looked quite comfortable on his sole ride at Dundalk, though. I think this weight allowance can only be a help for Stag Night in the deep ground. He is an uncomplicated sort. Just ride him, push him out, and given he only has to follow the lead of Two Stars, who’s drawn right beside, this shouldn’t be too tricky.

Given the price has gone to a point where I feel comfortable to get involved in this competitive race, I’ll have the bet on Stag Night. Ideally he’d go up to 6 furlongs, I feel. But at around 5/1 now he’s more than a point bigger than I’d have him.

10pts win – Stag Night @ 5/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 11th November 2023

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Bit of an unlucky spell right now. Haworth Star beaten in a photo. Probably was ahead right behind the line. Bunch of good runs for my selections lately, half of them placed, but no wins to show. Agonising.

Especially when you leave some unbacked that turn out to win…. the normal ups and downs of betting, I guess. A winner would be nice, though.

……

6.30 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

A weak contest and a weak favourite. I can’t have Cavalluccio in this race at all. Even though he seems to go better after a wind op, he still has to find something on speed ratings and isn’t exactly unexposed after 21 runs.

In contrast, I love the look of Blue Yonder dropping down to class 6, with the visor added, from a good draw, in a race with little pace to fight off in the early stages.

The gelding ran with plenty of credit this season, and his last two runs confirmed he’s back to his best, in my view.

He finished 9/12 last time at Newcastle but travelled well for most of the race in a competitive affair where, perhaps, things didn’t quite work out with the way the race ultimately developed. It was a better performance than the bare form suggested, though.

Prior at Wolverhampton he was only beaten in a tight finish, where the ride he received versus the rider the winner received made all the difference. With that in mind, off the same mark today, he is well-handicapped in my view.

That’s without taking into consideration a better jockey booking today and a pace scenario that will ensure Blue Yonder can move forward and be in the right spot throughout the race, which will surely be up with the pace.

He won twice earlier this year, up to 10 furlongs on soft turf. So the trip isn’t an issue. He also won on the sand over 9.5 at Wolverhampton, and was subsequently only a neck beaten at Weatherby off 69 where he achieved a 72 speed rating.

Blue Yonder seems equally as effective on sand as on turf, and that’s in line with the observation that a mark of 67 is probably lenient as this point in time.

10pts win – Blue Yonder @ 15/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 4th November 2023

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2.50 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Doesn’t look a strong race and the likely absence of any significant pace will give some suspect stayers of this distance a chance to get home stronger than usual.

One that fits into this category is Media Guest. The move to a new new yard is a bit of a question mark, but the 5-year-old looked in fine form when he caught the eye over this course and distance only last month.

He travelled quite well on the inside for a long time, still on the bridle upon entering the straight. There were moments you thought if he gets a clear run he can win. But he didn’t get out, was short of room multiple times.

The race was way too hot as well. Hence the drop into 0-65 appears significant today. The gelding has a poor win record, however would have a second W to his name if not having been demoted at Chelmsford earlier this year over this distance.

Generally, 7f stretches his stamina to absolute maximum. With the pace probably not overly hot here, he has every chance to get home, though, especially against much easier opposition off a career lowest mark.

Of course, Media Guest may be a bit keen in the early parts, if the pace is slow, and it’s probably down to solid 7lb claiming Liam Wright to make smart decisions as soon as the gates open.

Drawn in #4 he’s got plenty of options, and the most intriguing one would be if he bounces out of the gate to attack the race from the front. Media Guest is at his best if racing prominently, at the very least, so the setup looks perfect for him to simply move forward and do his own thing, if nobody else wants to do it.

He’s stone cold in the betting this morning. I guess the direction of the odds may tell us whether he’s on a going day…. saying that, this race looks like served on a plate for him to grab by the horns. So here’s hoping for a strong performance.

10pts win – Media Guest @ 8/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 21st October 2023

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1.50 Ascot: Group 1 British Champions Sprint, 6f

It’s going to be interesting to see how the track rides and the draw it’s going to favour on this going, with the switch to the inside track.

This race could – certainly from a pace angle – shape to favour the lower drawn horses. That should very much favour Kinross who isn’t drawn too far away from those who’ll likely move forward.

Nonetheless, there are two bigger prices that I quite like to possibly outrun their odds: the two fillies Swingalong and drawn right beside her, Believing.

Both ran huge races in the same race last time out at Haydock, when third and fourth in the Group 1 Sprint Cup. Different track and ground today, yet the two fillies have shown to handle soft underfoot conditions.

Swingalong started off her season with a fine effort in the Fred Darling on deep ground. She didn’t get home in those conditions over 7 furlongs, and certainly didn’t stay a mile in even worse conditions at Longchamp in the French 1000 Guineas.

But when dropped to 6 furlongs in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, she outrun her big odds to finish a superb 3rd. She followed on to show excellent early speed and guts in the closing stages to land the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York.

At Haydock, when last seen, she was completely isolated on the stands’ side, which wasn’t ideal. The filly did well to hang on for fourth and probably could have finished much closer if she would have raced as part of the main field, I felt.

Believing raced just on the outside of the main bunch for the most part of the race that day, and she finished closer to the stands side ultimately, racing without company for the last two furlongs, which wasn’t an advantage. I loved her attitude, nonetheless, as she kept on for third place all the way to the line.

She achieved a career-best speed rating of 100 that day, having shown excellent improvement from a strong 92 showing at Pontefract when she won against the run of race after a less than ideal start from a wider than ideal draw, coming from well off the pace.

The filly is progressing all the time this year despite her relative experience with 14 career runs under the belt. She won three times this season and did so on soft ground as well.

Her draw looks ideal, she probably will be forward enough with headgear fitted for the first time, and if she tracks Swingalong, she may get a nice lead into the finish.

Swingalong herself has ran 97 speed figures back-to-back now, and may not have reached her peak yet. She has form on soft and possesses possibly a bit of extra stamina that could be key for her to stay in front in the closing stages. She has to improve again, though, that’s clear also.

This is incredibly competitive, though. Things have to go right from start to finish for both these fillies to outrun their price tag. However, if things fall right, these two fillies clearly have the ability to finish a lot closer than 30/1+ odds suggest.

5pts win – Swingalong @ 35/1
5pts win – Believing @ 31/1

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3.05 Ascot: Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, 1m

What a brilliant field. A true race of champions. But does the ground change the trajectory of the race? I definitely think so. This is going to be a fast race, on soft ground. It’ll take solid cruising speed and stamina to win.

I have worries that this isn’t the right test for brilliant Tahira to bring the best out of her, as mouth watering a clash with Paddington is on paper.

Paddington is the one to beat. He’s a superb miler and possibly an even better horse over ten furlongs. He ran two 110+ speed ratings this season and has won on any ground. This mile test with cut in the ground could be an ideal test.

On the other hand, his very best form came on better ground. He also had a lot of racing and didn’t fire at York when last seen. AOB is the master to get his stars back on track, so you would think Paddington comes here in the form of his life.

Nonetheless, given the price is short enough, I think one can be bold and take this superstar colt on.

Nashwaa over a mile is one to consider. She ran 100 and 106 speed ratings the last two times over 10 furlongs. However, again the ground is a slight question mark, as her best comes on better going as well. Still, this testing mile should suit.

Chaldean over a mile on softish ground at Ascot could be a perfect match. He looks a touch overpriced.

However, clearly the one who seems the forgotten horse in this field is Big Rock. Perhaps, some take a too negative view on his last two runs when beaten favourite.

In my view, this test will suit him tremendously well. The ground, the track and the fact he may not even need to make all but rather follow the pace closely, which should be hot enough – and if not he simply moves forward – looks perfect.

Prominent horses should be favoured here and once he hits the front he may be difficult to pass.

It’s true, though, he’s got to bounce back from a somewhat unconvincing 2nd place in the Prix du Moulin. He wasn’t the sharpest away, and possibly did too much in the early stages of the race.

If one is prepared to forgive him that below-par performance – still a runner-up performance in Group 1 company – then he’s right up there with the best in this field.

His second behind Inspiral in the Jacques le Marois is seriously strong form. The filly came from off the pace to overhaul him late. He achieved a superb 108 speed rating that day, nonetheless.

In hindsight, given what Ace Impact did since then, Big Rock’s runner-up performance in the French Derby looks even better than it did on the day itself.

He did a lot in front, and was only beaten in the closing staged by the subsequent Arc winner, who was ridden with much more restraint.

Overall, Big Rock has been a consistently top-class performer this year. I believe this track, trip and ground can bring the best out of him.

10pts win – Big Rock @ 8/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 19th August 2023

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3.35 Newbury: Group 2 Hungerford Stakes, 7f

Jumby is out out and that opens up this race. I remain somewhat intrigued by Mostabshir, blinkers fitted, down in trip today.

If the ground dries out it’s going to help him quite a lot. I could see him ridden quite prominently and if this turns out to be a muddling affair he’s got potentially the gears. But it’s hard to be excited after his last two runs, truth told, and I want to see some spark first.

The most solid and proven option should be Pogo, though. He was a massive eye-catcher in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot and ran pretty well in the Criterion Stakes last months.

Possibly he did a little bit too much in the middle part of the race and it may have been a benefit to race on the far side as well. It was a strong run, nonetheless, and he confirmed the promise shown at Royal Ascot.

After a poor time in Dubai, the Queen Anne was a significant return to form – a performance that warranted serious upgrading.

He was most likely ridden with the aim to preserve his limited stamina over the stiff Ascot mile there and had too much to do from the rear of the field.

Yet, the way he made serious progress on the far side, quickening into the fastest part of the race, away from the pace as well, was seriously impressive.

He couldn’t keep up the effort over the stiff final furlong but then he’s a 7 furlongs specialist. The more the ground hopefully dries out today the better for him, of course.

10pts win – Pogo @ 6/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 12th August 2023

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5.02 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

I have been waiting for The Muffin Man to step up to a mile and he finally does it here, in a seriously poor race, that doesn’t take much for winning it.

The 3-year-old gelding showed some promise this season already, despite an 0/9 record. I wouldn’t give him any more chances, though. This should be his day to shine.

He drops down to a 49 handicap mark, 9 and 7 lb respectively lower than two eye-catching efforts back in May and June. Also his last run was better than the bare result suggested, given there were some solidly handicapped runners in the race, very much so the eventual winner.

He looked a bit sharper early on in the cheek pieces, although, maybe a bit too sharp for his own good. They are off today. The #5 draw is a positive, as long as he isn’t slowly away and gets too far behind as a consequence.

That may happen and seal his fate early on. But he was away well enough when last seen, so here’s hoping. Ben Sanderson claims valuable 3lb – with that in mind, if allowed to run on merit the gelding should be seriously well-handicapped now.

10pts win – The Muffin Man @ 12.5/1

………..

6.07 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

A hugely frustrating and inconsistent sort, Glorious Rio is one not to trust. However, he showed signs of life multiple times this year, and now returns on turf to the minimum trip, on ground that hopefully doesn’t get too soft.

He pulled hard at Newcastle last time over 6 furlongs but ran well in the circumstances, as he’s done a number of times when somewhat unfortunate not getting the best of runs.

He dropped to a seriously dangerous mark now, down to 60; Glorious Rio won 4 times of similar or higher ratings on multiple surfaces and ground conditions, mostly over the minimum trip and also off big weights.

The #11 could be ideal, as it should lead him nicely into the finish, following those that are setting pace against the stands’ side.

Slight concerns over the weather forecast: I hope it’s only going to be one or two small showers, and no more. I don’t think he wants it proper soft conditions.

His very best came on fast ground. Although, he won on good to soft last summer. So the way it should ride given the current forecast will be fine.

10pts win – Glorious Rio @ 15/2

……

8.07 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

The drop in trip in combination with a drop in class will really suit He’s a Gentleman who didn’t get home the last two times over a mile. He ran with plenty of credit, nonetheless, especially last time out when only beaten late.

He can race off the same mark here, which gives him the opportunity to run in this 0-70 contest where he should find life a little bit easier than most of the time this year so far.

The recent run is a clear return to form, suggesting he’s not far off the excellent form he showed last year when also running to speed ratings in the 70s.

If he can follow-up, with the pace scenario possibly suiting him too, he could prove a step above the rest in this field.

10pts win – He’s a Gentleman @ 5/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 1st July 2023

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June is over: 29pts profit. I guess, the way it went that counts as a major success. Quite how that is possible to turn a profit in a month with runs of 31 and 16 conseqeuitive losing bets is remarkable as it’s not sustainable.

Some big prices saved the day. Whether the rest was just unfortunate or more to it, I’ll need to dig deeper. What is certain: I had too many bets. The overwhelming amount of racing doesn’t help.

……..

8.15 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Nibras Rainbow seems difficult to catch as he couldn’t follow on from an eyecatching run at track when last seen at Wetherby.

I felt he had excuses that day, though. Heavily bumped soon after the start, he lost his balance, was lit up, and used up energy to get moving forward. He was early beaten enough, nonetheless.

I have to go back to his penultimate effort over the extended seven furlongs here at Lingfield four weeks ago. A strong run and excellent form:

He dwelt from a wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was then still going well two furlongs from before before heavily challenged. He was seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.

Nibras Rainbow ran a career-best speed rating that day, in line with his current mark. Can he repeat the effort today, and may find a bit more? A decent start, from the #6 draw, could ensure that.

This is a wide open contest in my view. The favourite may improve again, but has to for the return to turf. He’s yet to impress on speed ratings, so worth taking on.

Nibras Rainbow is drifting in the betting this morning. But I feel he’s moving out to a huge price, if here to run on merit.

10pts win – Nibras Rainbow @ 7/1