Tag Archives: Handicap

Betting

Saturday Selections: August, 4th 2018

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3.25 Thirsk: Class 3 Handicap, 1 mile

A big field that screams competitiveness. However, judged purely by TS ratings, there are very few in it who appear to be well handicapped, actually. Most of these older horses are capable of running to some sort of form close to their current rating – but better than that?

Usually this isn’t my cup of tea, a race like this, neither the horse I fancy – particularly at a price as short as it is. Nonetheless there is still a bit of juice in the price of Richard Fahey’s Borodin, I feel.

For a start: he’s the only 3 year old in the race thanks to WFA racing off bottom weight while his actual rating should see him rather toward the top third of the weights. This is going to be his handicap debut and there is an obvious question mark in first place whether Borodin is as good as a lofty 86 handicap mark.

The answer is emphatically “yes” judged by the form of his last two starts that also came here at Thirsk. He appeared to be still pretty green on both occasions, which makes sense as it was only lifetime start two and three.

He disposed an experienced runner-up over 7f on his second outing easily. This runner-up – Kawasir – was subsequently a good deal beaten but not disgraced when finishing within 6 lengths of an individual that’s now rated 95.

Borodin then stepped up to a mile. Still quite green and keen to get on with things he was swept by late by a promising horse in New Show who ran well in a hot class 2 Handicap subsequently. Also the third,  History Writer, 2¼ behind Borodin, won a decent Sandown Handicap on his next start racing off 85.

In summary: judged by this form, an opening mark of 86 doesn’t look harsh. In fact, if Borodin has learned from his three starts he should improve quite a bit and can be a few pounds better than that.

The fact that he has been here at Thirsk before and ran well, also is one who is likely be up with the pace, which is an advantage at this track, means this rather smallish gelding shouldn’t be too intimidated by the big field. That says he’ll need a good break from a less than ideal draw in 10.

Selection:
10pts win – Borodin @ 11/2 Sky

Betting

Wednesday Selections: August, 1st 2018

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3.35 Goodwood: Group 1 Sussex Stakes, 1m

On the face of it this is not a vintage renewal of the Sussex Stakes. As always the three year old’s hold an advantage thanks to WFA and that’s not different this time. But you can pick big holes into their form today. After all there is little between the top four or five in the betting market, in my mind.

Given that I can discount both Without Parole and Expert Eye purely for price reasons. The latter one returning to a mile seems not ideal despite a recent impressive success over 7f. Without Parole is clearly a fair favourite, however hasn’t beaten allot to this day, if we’re honest. Andre Fabre always needs to be respected but Orbaan has a lot to find. Gustav Klimt isn’t good enough on this level.

Leaves me with a decision who of the older horses is the best bet. Beat The Bank leads the way. Unlucky in the Queen Anne, he ran into trouble in the Summer Mile at the same venue weeks later again, though found a way to get his head in front.

Lord Glitter is closely matched but I feel he had every chance the other day at Ascot, so even at a big price he’s not one I fancy. While I fancy Beat The Bank to do damage today, at prices I think he’s close to what he should be.

Unlike veteran Lightning Spear. Now a seven year but as good as ever, he’s chasing the elusive first Group 1 victory. Today could be the day. He is as good as ever as proven in his two starts this year when a tight runner-up in the Lockinge Stakes and an excellent third in the Queen Anne.

He is an uncomplicated type who is a CD scorerm multiple Stakes winner and seven times placed on the highest level. Lightning Spear is the ultimate pro who will run his race which might be enough to finally get his head in front.

Selection:
10pts win – Lightning Spear @ 12.5/1 MB

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3.55 Redcar: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Lightly raced Nathanial colt Global Style drops back to 10f here as well as down in a class 5 Handicap. He didn’t look exactly like a truly well handicapped horse the last couple of starts, however had ran well enough all the same and in my eyes those performances looked slightly better than the bare form.

He clearly has a race in him, particularly one like this here, a rather uncompetitive affair, that is for the taking.

He’s not a speedy horse by any means. So pace will be key. You’d be hopeful there is a bit here today. That should allow Global Style to grind his way to the front when it matters.

He clearly is up to his current mark, and potentially a tad better. His third in a good class 3 contest over 12f at Thirsk, behind two good horses, proved it. A fair runner-up over CD back in June saw him only beaten for a turn of foot in the closing stages. Given he’s also an April foal means he may simply needed a bit of time to find his way also.

Selection:
10pts win – Global Style @ 5/1 MB

Betting

Tuesday Selections: July, 31st 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

1.50 Goodwood: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

Still to some extend unexposed and open to further improvement is Jim Crowley’s mount Alfarris. A progressive sort, he won on seasonal reappearance a hot class 3 Handicap at Chelmsford in commanding style.

Returning two weeks later at Sandown stepping up in class he travelled supremely well even though the race with its start-stop gallop wasn’t set up to see him to best effect. Ultimately the pace setter pulled out more in the closing stages.

That was a clear career best performance by Alfarris resulting in a 93 TS rating. He’s upped 2lb for the effort but in the context of the race here he has a really nice weight and a good draw too.

Selection:
10pts win – Alfarris @ 7/1 PP

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3.35 Goodwood: Group 1 Goodwood Cup, 2m

Defending champion Stradivarius is the obvious one and hard to beat after two excellent wins this year. But at given prices I have a go with Call To Mind who remains unexposed over the 2m trip and also looks to get better with time.

He won a 1m 6f Listed contest here at Goodwood last year and has backed this up with some big performances in graded company. He was also third in this years Yorkshire Cup behind Stradivarius – a fair margin beaten, though.

A subsequent Grade 2 success in the Belmont Gold Cup in June when attempting the full 2 miles for the first time set him up nicely for a big performance today, I feel where he can chase home the hot favourite.

Selection:
10pts win – Call To Mind @ 16/1 PP

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4.45 Goodwood: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

Tricky race where I give Just Glamorous a chance to find back some form after two rather below-par efforts this year. A real speed-ball who should enjoy exactly this type of test, he drops to a more likely mark as well as down from Graded company.

Just Glamorous has shown in the past to be able to to this sort of mark and time speed figures back this up. The question is whether he still got it as the drop off between what he showed at the back end of last season to the two efforts this year are stark.

Selection:
10pts win – Just Glamorous @ 27/1 MB

Betting

Saturday Selections: July, 28th 2018

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4.55 Chester: Class 4 Handicap, 10.5f

A wide open affair and I feel handicap debutant King Tut has shown enough in three maidens to suggest he could improve for this trip and the switch to turf.

You got to bank on his fitness, however, he he ran well on his seasonal reappearance back in March at Lingfield over a mile, travelling notably well until tiring toward the end without getting a hard time.

An opening mark of 73 looks entirely fair, but given the quite excellent record Animal Kingdom has with three year old’s in Britain so far plus the valuable assistance of 3lb claimer Adam McNamara, King Tut could be better than this initial rating.

Selection:
10pts win – King Tut @ 15/2 Sky

Betting

Thursday Selections: July, 26th 2018

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8.50 Newbury: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Bottom weight He’s Our Star can go back to back today, after a rather impressive maiden win in a class 5 Handicap against his own age four weeks ago at this very venue.

He seemed slightly flat footed early on as the pace was strong – that’s the major concern dropping down to 7f today – but found himself with a wall of horses to pass in the home straight.

Once with  bit of daylight the three year old gelding jump for it, producing a nice turn of foot to win a shade cozily on the line, despite the close winning margin.

He’s only gone up 3lb for this success, while the form has been franked multiple times in the meantime. He also raced to a TS rating of 67 that day, which equals his new mark.

With a low weight today and a potentially underestimation of his true merit by the handicapper, He’s Our Star should have a cracking chance to follow-up on this recent success today, as long he isn’t completely taken off his feat by slightly shorter trip.

Selection:
10pts win – He’s Our Star @ 5/1 PP

Betting

Saturday Selections: July, 14th 2018

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1.40 Newmarket: Class 2 Handicap, 7f

Tough race to break down, but I feel, despite the big price, there is a good case to be made for the only three year old in the race – Cardsharp.

A runner-up in the Middle Park Stakes last year, he has trained on as he won a good listed race last month and subsequently wasn’t totally disgraced in hotter company.

This here ain’t much easier, given he has a massive handicap mark to carry around. But WFA allowance lessens the burden a bit. He also has ran to a 100+ time speed rating in the past, which is a sign of high class horse.

Given he brings proven Group class form into this race, enjoys fast ground and has fair recent form. The step up to 7f is a question mark as he’s not proven yet to be able to bring his 6f form over the longer trip.

But, in fairness, he ran in hot races over 7f and on pedigree he actually should be excel this sort of distance. The likely fast will surely be a help today to see him to best effect, so at a big price I give Cardsharp a decent chance to be in the shake up when it matters.

Selection:
10pts win – Cardsharp @ 20/1 PP

……..

7.30 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 12f

Killdeer should progress nicely and with the WFA advantage is clearly the one to beat. Nonetheless it’s not a given, and with proven force Mutadaffeq in the race, I side with the experience here.

Mutadaffeq has dropped to a sexy mark despite running relatively well in recent weeks. It’s true he looked in the grip of the handicapper but that solely because of consistency. He’s down a pound on his last winning mark, even though on soft ground, he also has winning form on a fast surface.

The fact Mutadaffeq has ran to time speed rating of 85 in the past suggests he’s due for a big performance today over a distance he’s a 23% strike rate.

Selection:
10pts win – Mutadaffeq @ 4/1 MB

Betting

Friday Selection: July, 13th 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

6.10 Chepstow: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

The two market leaders seem head and shoulders above the rest of the field, however there’s real concern over the trip for Air Of York, while it remains to be seem whether Nazzaa has the speed on fast ground dropping to a mile.

That means it could be worth to side with one of the other three. Four year old Alqalsar offers the most upside theoretically, but showed nothing this year after a promising campaign last season and his attitude has to be questioned.

The two veterans in the field, Living Leader and Peak Storm are of high interest to me, given their featherweight. Living Leader with Hollie Doyle in the saddle is by far the more intriguing individual having some solid form to his name while getting a big chance by the handicapper.

Peak Storm on the other hand hasn’t ran a good race in nearly two years. That says, he he has quite a good record over this trip at this track and dropped so far in the weights that if there’s still any sort of appetite for racing left he could be incredibly dangerously weighted now.

He drops back to a mile here at Chepstow, into a race he won back in 2015. The betting suggests there is zero expectations, but the booking of promising apprentice Andre Beslin, who claims 7lb, makes Peak Storm an interesting contender today.

Selection:
10pts win – Peak Storm @ 40/1 PP

Betting

Wednesday Selections: July, 11th 2018

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4.10 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 2 miles

A wide open long distance handicap that could go the way of featherweight Kittileo. Only eight stone to carry, the sole three year old in the race has a massive chance to win on what is his fifth career start – if he stays the trip and acts on the fast ground.

He showed promise on occasions, but I feel the Mark Johnston runner might come over these marathon trips into his own. His pedigree gives him any chance to improve and Galileo’s have a tremendous record here at Catterick over this sort of trip.

Receiving weight all around, Kittileo has the added advantage of a good draw, which even over longer trips, can make a difference here at Catterick. Given, he has shown to be enjoy the lead in his runs same tactics will surely be employed here as well at a course where those up with the pace have always a big advantage.

Selection:
10pts win – Kittileo @ 13/2 GB

Betting

Tuesday Selections: July, 10th 2018

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8.40 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

This is a brutal race quality wise. Gives the Daniel Kubler trained filly Chizz De Biz a tremendous chance to leave a recent disappointing run behind after she got off the mark here at Brighton so impressively in June.

That was over 6f in an equally quite poor contest. However, she showed excellent pace and won cosily in the end suggesting there is more to come. A drop to slightly shorter didn’t yield in improvement, however now stepping up to 7f only four pounds higher than her earlier success looks ideal.

Her pedigree offers hope to stay the extra mile. The way she ran up the hill the other day and the fact that fast ground will be a huge help mean she should enjoy this task going off the #1 draw as well, providing an opportunity to grab the rail being while being close to the pace.

Chizz De Biz is also the least exposed horse in the field who has achieved the highest lifetime time speed rating of anyone in the race also.

Selection:
10pts win – Chizz De Biz @ 4/1 PP

Betting

Friday Selections: July, 6th 2018

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4.40 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 6f

This looks an ideal opportunity for handicap debutant Saroog to follow on from his excellent maiden win at Goodwood last month. He travelled strongly into the race and finished off a rival he had to give plenty of weight to who is a subsequent winner.

Saroog has fine form in his book with a couple of placed efforts earlier this year. A close runner-up behind Count Octave in April, who subsequently wasn’t disgraced in pattern races, showed there is potential.

An opening mark off 85 appears more than fair and leaves room for improvement. The trip and ground seems to suit. This lightly raced son of Nathanial could easily develop into a nice staying prospect.

Selection:
10pts win – Saroog @ 10/3 WH