Tag Archives: Handicap

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #1

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous lists here.

With the flat season under way, it’s time to shift the focus away from the sand finally for good. Hence this is the start of the new series for the2023 flat season.

There can still be a few horses on the list that caught the eye on the sand, given All-Weather racing never sleeps. But the majority will come from turf from now on. Good times!

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Maywake
10/04/23 – 4.01 Redcar:

Bit awkward away from the gate. Swiftly moved over to the far side, travelled strongly as part of the group there, still on the bridle 2f out. Had to sit and suffer, before finally out 1f out and ran on really well to finished best.

Lovely return off a break. Down to a mark of 80 now. Won off similar mark last year (also ran career best 84 speed rating). Enjoys cut in the ground and looks ready to run a big race once again in those conditions over 7f.

Race Replay

Stormy Pearl
10/04/23 – 5.46 Redcar:

Swiftly moved over to join the pace full of enthusiasm, a bit too keenly, doing too much. Nonetheless, travelled the best approaching the 2f marker, everyone else off the bridle. Tired rapidly inside the final furlong.

Strong return, especially on soft ground. Raced a lot for a May foal last year and may not have much scope for improvement. But down to realistic 55 mark again, won off similar plus speed rating last year.

Best form on decent ground. Worth to wait for those conditions, given she doesn’t have tons in hand, but is one who could strike on the right day in these early days of the season.

Race Replay

Wen Moon
11/04/23 – 4.00 Pontefract:

Disadvantaged by widest draw, settled in rear. Turned widest for home while going best, smooth progress to hit the front at final furlong marker but hang badly to his left. Won well with plenty in hand I believe.

Impressive how he won on this ground against the pace bias. Almost certainly better on decent ground. Only 3lb up. Lightly raced, gelded during winter. There’s more to come.

Race Replay

Foreseeable Future
12/04/23 – 2.10 Catterick:

Not ideal low draw in soft conditions here, moved quickly toward the centre, that was costly; going okay for a long time before tiering in the final furlong.

Comeback run can be upgraded. Down to good mark. Ran to higher speed ratings last year and won off current mark. Much better on decent to fast ground over the minimum trip and dangerous in those conditions.

Race Replay

Thornaby Beauty
12/04/23 – 5.20 Catterick:

Settled wide in drear from second widest draw. Looked poised over 2f out and tried to make progress through a gap that suddenly got tight and she got bumped several times by rivals. Kept going well to the line.

Superb run in circumstances. Lightly raced. Ran solid speed rating on the sand in line with her current mark, but possibly even more so open to progress on turf.

Should have a chance to stretch out over 7 furlongs on decent ground, but 6f with cut may prove the ideal trip.

Race Replay

Aihawawi
13/04/23 – 5.05 Newcastle:

Went forward and made most after an initial pedestrian first furlong set a strong pace. Under pressure from over 2f out when headed by strongly travelling rival, but kept going gutsily and finished second best in final furlong behind winner from off the pace.

Nice reappearance, first time expected to run well. Still lightly raced and open to progress over 7f, perhaps also on turf on decent ground.

Race Replay

Bella Kopella
13/04/23 – 5.05 Newcastle:

Early up with pace, before tracking the leader who set a solid pace. Stylish progress from over 2f out to head the leader and move ahead. Travelled like the winner but did a lot in the middle part of the race. Tired badly in the final furlong.

Progressive as a juvenile, and won well over this CD upon seasonal return last month. Looks still open to more improvement, ran to 59 speed rating lto and travelled like a “good thing” here.

The way he fell away in the final furlong was a bit concerning but they went hard and he did a lot to push the pace as well.

Race Replay

Indian Creek
17/04/23 – 3.45 Windsor:

Tracked pace early on before putting more pressure on the pace setter. Did too much in the first half of the race in desperate conditions. Most that finished better races more restrained. Tired from 2f out.

Solid comeback. Prefers better ground. Course and distance specialist. Won off 85 and multiple times off in and around 80, including running to 80 speed rating last season.

Dangerous if he drops below 80 now on better going, ideally at Windsor, but also ran well at Goodwood and Newbury.

Race Replay

Cuban Breeze
17/04/23 – 3.45 Windsor:

Set the early pace, showed excellent early speed. Did way too much in desperate conditions and fell away rapidly from over two furlongs out. Still really positive the early speed he showed.

Ran well lto at Kempton clocking a good speed rating. Clearly in solid form. NTO can be ignored in hot company.

Prefers better ground. Ran well last season of mid 80 marks, including 3x 80+ speed ratings. Mark should be revised and becomes really interesting in right conditions. Has speed for minimum trip and stays 6f.

Race Replay

Aurora Dawn
18/04/23 – 2.00 Lingfield:

Bumped a rival as she hot out of the gate. Quickly relegated to the rear of the field. Going okay turning for home, but not quite a clear run in the home straight until gap opens up properly at the final furlong marker. Finished much the best.

Handicap debut, looks like she wants further, and pedigree says a mile could see her improve. Opening mark wasn’t a giveaway and jury is out whether she is ahead even if she steps up to a mile.

But she ran here to 61 speed rating in less than ideal circumstances. With natural improvement there is every chance she can make up the gap and be better than 68.

Race Replay

Swinging Eddie
18/04/23 – 7.30 Southwell:

Overcame his #9 draw quickly to come across and grab the lead. Travelled well enough for a long time, only headed over 1f out and tired late.

Fine seasonal reappearance. Good form. Down to dangerous mark. Ran well off higher last year, including a 62 speed rating. Flexible ground wise on turf over 7f.

Race Replay

Ventura Flame
19/04/23 – 2.50 Beverley:

Tracked the pace early on before taking up the lead over 2f out. Still ahead entering the final furlong before beaten by strong finisher from off the pace half a furlong from home.

Excellent seasonal reappearance. Down to last winning mark from spring 2022, ran twice 74 speed rating plus, including near career-best 77 last year.

Looks in good form. Not a huge margin for error but dangerous if allowed to dominate.

Race Replay

Mustaffiz
20/04/23 – 7.30 Chelmsford:

Went forward really hard to get the lead no matter what. Raced wide as a consequence for most of the race, finally in front as the field turns for home, but tired badly as a consequence of early exertions.

Bumped into a few well-handicapped ones lately. Still ran huge races. Somewhat in the grip of the handicapper but looks capable to win off 59 in race with less pace to compete.

Return to turf would be interesting for possible improvement. Won over 5f on soft in France.

Race Replay

Nogo’s Dream
20/04/23 – 5.15 Newmarket:

Travelled strongly, smooth progress from 3f out, on the bridle, went on to press the lead approaching the final furlong but tired badly.

Perhaps didn’t get home over the stiff 7f. Still lightly raced. Won a maiden over 5f prior. Opportunities off current 67 rating over easier 7f or drop to 6f looks no issue.

Race Replay

Fortamour
20/04/23 – 3.20 Ripon:

Raced in midfield and made excellent progress to grab the lead from over 2f out in his group. Did well to win the near side group from the wide draw#. ( other 6f race on the card also won decisively by far side)

Fine comeback run. Down to excellent 80 mark now. Won off 80 and last year. Ran to 82 speed rating as well. Ripon specialist.

Race Replay

Jax Edge
21/04/23 – 5.20 Bath:

Travelled well when tracking the pace, but stuck in a pocked from 3f out. Looked dangerous if a gap would ever open. No clear run until late when getting tired.

Good comeback run. This should be solid form for this low grade. She won her final race as a juvenile on handicap debut over 6f, which is strong form.

A 61 mark offers opportunities over sprint trips for the filly. She was arguably unlucky not to finish better here but also should come on for the run.

Race Replay

The Defiant
22/04/23 – 4.40 Brighton:

Keen to get on in the early part but restrained to track fast pace a few lengths off. Got rolling from 3f out, big move, pressed leader from 2f out. Established good lead but eventually caught half a furlong out by winner who was ridden more patiently in the middle part.

Excellent comeback. 1lb above last winning mark but ran three times to speed ratings 70+ last year. Clearly ready to go, ideally over 5f. Can run well downhill. Ascot entry next week intriguing.

Race Replay

Huddle Up
22/04/23 – 3.45 Thirsk:

Crossed over soon after the start from his low draw to the stands’ side rail. Tracked good pace, move from over 2f out, in a head-to-head battle with the leader from 2f out all the way to the line. Just beaten in final 50 yards by horse from off the pace.

Strong comeback run after over 300 days off. First proper performance since moving to the UK but also first time on soft ground.

Cut in the ground seems key. Fall to sexy mark. Has speed for minimum trip and stays 6f.

Race Replay

Ramiro
22/04/23 – 4.15 Thirsk:

Off to an okay start, travelled well enough, but repeatedly a clear run denied from 3f out. Tried to get through an opening inside the final furlong just to be squeezed out again.

Would have gone close. Comeback run. Plenty of issues at the start in the past. Hood seemed to help here. Fallen a long way down in the ratings. Seriously dangerous.

Best over 7 furlongs, but 6 furlongs on proper soft off current low mark a possibility. Looks in superb form judged on this run.

Race Replay

Betting

Monday Selections: 24th April 2023

2 Comments

1.30 Windsor: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Big Bard ran with plenty of credit the last three times and caught the eye in two of those. He returns to turf and to a course and distance he got desperately close to win back in October.

He came on my radar on the final day of 2022, at Lingfield, when he showed good early speed to lead, seemingly enjoying himself in front of the pack before he got tired and fell back rapidly from 1.5 out.

He was too keen the next time over 7 furlongs, but finished strongly at Lingfield back down to 6 furlongs when last seen in March. Both 6f Lingfield forms look rock solid and confirm that he’s not far off winning form, in my view.

As he returns to the 6f as Windsor, where he was only a shoulder beaten in a tight finish back in October, he can now race off 58, 5lb lower than then.

It’s also intriguing that Big Bard is re-fitted with cheek-pieces. He responded really well to wearing them for the first time in that aforementioned Windsor run.

In addition, the 7lb claim of talented apprentice Alec Voikhansky gives his chance in this race here another boost, if he can handle the soft ground. There is more rain expected, so it may turn to proper soft on the day.

There’s hope, though. He ran well on good to soft in the past, but also won on fast ground, off his current 58 mark, that was his last win, back in October 2021.

This is a competitive race, already given by the 16 runners. Not too many appear overly well-handicapped, on the other side. Big Bard does appear to be one of the better handicapped runners, in any case.

It looks like this race may have been a target to get him ready for over the last weeks. Certainly there is a bit of money this evening already, with the early bigger prices rapidly vanishing. Thankfully I still got what I wanted for my entire stake, although we only see tomorrow whether there is anything real about.

10pts win – Big Bard @ 15/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 22nd April 2023

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3.45 Thirsk: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

This looks a thoroughly uncompetitive affair, despite a field of 13 runners. That should give Phoenix Beach an excellent chance to get his first win on turf, after he got off the mark on sand last summer.

He was only seen one more time last year, over the same course and distance as his maiden victory. That’s where he caught my eye for the way he travelled through the race from the front, before he suddenly tired rapidly.

He travelled so supremely well there, in line with his impressive first career victory a few month earlier, that something must have been amiss for him to drop out so tamely.

Thankfully it turned out that he lost a shoe and was found lame afterwards, indeed.

He returned last month at Doncaster over 5 furlongs in desperate conditions. He didn’t travelled particularly well but stuck to the task well enough before getting tired in the final furlong. A rock solid comeback run.

You’d hope he can improve from there and as generally lightly raced individual it’s far from impossible that he can find more for natural improvement as well. Off a 72 mark he offers upside.

10pts win – Phoenix Beach @ 6/1

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5.25 Nottingham: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

I’m really excited to see Captain Corcoran returning so quickly after his latest Catterick run. I believe this lad is in super form and ready to strike.

He caught the eye on his seasonal reappearance last month, where after an awkward start he was held up in rear and finished seriously well under and easy hands and heels ride after not getting a clear run until late.

He was clearly ridden with intend not to show all of his cards there and appeared on a lovely mark next time at Catterick, but he faced an uphill battle from the #4 draw.

The jockey seemed to try too hard (by design?) to overcompensate for this significant disadvantage over that course and distance and used a lot of energy but also giving ground away moving all the way across to the stands’ side.

Captain Corcoran looked threatening for a brief moment over 2 furlongs out but eventually faded.

As a result he dropped another two pounds. Now down to 52 he appears pretty well-handicapped with soft conditions likely to suit. The more rain that falls and is excepted tomorrow, the better for his chances.

10pts win – Captain Corcoran @ 6/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 21st April 2023

2 Comments

Another pretty quiet week so far, but one that has been hugely successful: two winners on Tuesday, The Toff and later in the evening it was Papa Cocktail especially who ran out gutsy wins to land a rare 2 from 2 on the day.

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4.18 Cork: Conditions Race, 1m 2f

It’s always tricky to know how these 3-year-old horses have wintered and how fit they are on their fist run in the new season. This contest at Cork looks particularly trappy as four of the five runners have legitimate claims to develop into proper pattern class horses this year.

Nonetheless, Bertinelli appears somewhat underappreciated here. I would have expected him to be a bit shorter, given how highly I rate him. but can see why he’s not.

He is one of my Horses to Follow, and I firmly believe he’s got the potential to be a seriously good colt this year. In saying that, one may underestimate him if purely judged on the lack of perceived impressiveness of his sole victory as a juvenile.

That was his second and final start asa juvenile, when he battled hard to land a Dundalk maiden. He won by a neck, but the performance warrants an upgrade because the jockey reported that the colt got struck into behind and that had a major impact on how he ran.

With that in mind the Dundalk run was a fine follow-up on his eye-catching debut that came at Leopardwown where finished an excellent second place behind smart winner Peking Opera, while he didn’t enjoy quite a clear run from 2f out. He also achieved a promising 74 speed rating.

Bertinelli was also reported to be rather weak and had a lot of growing to do last year, which puts these two performances into even better perspective.

Apparently he has wintered really well and had been working nicely since being back in training before hitting a slight setback suffering from a stone bruise.

That’s a concern, but the fact he’s running today, still maintains all his fancy entries, and Ryan Moore coming to Cork, looks positive, as is the step up to 10 furlongs, which is an absolute must.

I’ve no doubts that he stays the Derby distance, and that, if all goes well, we’ll see him in one of the English or Irish Derby this year. But he looks speedy enough for 10 furlongs, and has already shown to handle slightly better ground, while his other rivals, with pedigrees have won in deep ground and look to need a trip on pedigree.

This is as low a price I ever back, but I’m more than hopeful Bertinelli can justify these odds to get his 3-year-old campaign off to the flyer.

10pts win – Bertinelli @ 9/4

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 18th April 2023

2 Comments

2.00 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Trappy contest given the unexposed form of half the field. I do like the exposed form of The Toff, though. He caught the eye the last time, and to a lesser degree also the time before.

At Southwell over a mile he simply didn’t see out the trip after overcoming a wide draw to challenge strongly from three furlongs out.

Last time out at Lingfield, dropped to 7 furlongs, was an interesting race that finished in a sprint finish. Even though he was able to track the pace, he didn’t receive the most economical ride and had to concede first run to the leader. He finished a strong second and the fastest horse in the last three furlongs.

He clearly is in prime form and ready to win. Still a maiden, though, not without promise shown multiple times, he was gelded in October and that may have contributed, in addition to a drop in his handicap mark, to those fine runs lately.

Seven furlongs with a solid pace should be an ideal scenario and is the likely one to be encountered in this race with plenty of pace excpected. This is an easier contest than last month – on paper, if there wouldn’t be all that unexposed form in this field – although, those handicap debutants enjoy only a fair opening mark at best.

He’s an uncomplicated sort, usually up with the pace, and should be able track whoever wants to burn himself out in the early parts. He’s in in strong form and looks primed for a yard that’s going well enough at the moment.

10pts win – The Toff @ 10/3

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8.30 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

The price is skinny enough, given his patchy record, but ultimately it feels like this is the day I have been waiting for to back Papa Cocktail.

He was a huge eyecatcher in a similar contest over this course and distance in February when he finished like a train from well off the pace despite not enjoying the clearest of runs. That forms is seriously strong as well.

A stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle where he moved forward to lead until steadily going backwards from about 2 furlongs out probably stretched his stamina, when last seen. It was also a stronger race.

Even though I believe 7 furlongs is possibly his optimum, perhaps a slightly less stiff track and more restraint ride should see him get the trip really well, I also think 6 furlongs with a good pace to aim at will suit him really well, too.

He should find this here. The #7 draw doesn’t worry me too much because he will be ridden off the pace in any case. I hope fore a no-nonsense ride with a challenge unleashed toward the stands’ side, for a clear run.

A mark off 63 gives him a tremendous chance. He caught the eye multiple times last year on turf as well. There is a reason why he’s fallen to such a low rating now, but he clearly showed a spark the last two times to assume he’ll be the one to beat in this contest.

10pts win – Papa Cocktail @ 4/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 15th April 2023

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Grand National day. My preview of the big race can be read here. On the flat racing front things remain quiet this week and also this weekend, to the most part.

But looking at the tracker for next week things are going to get hot. There are no less than 21 eyecatchers scheduled to run only from Monday to Wednesday alone The flat is back!

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4.30 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Not a particularly competitive race. El Royale saw some money this morning, and some of that may well be the “Billy factor” more than anything.

The horses drops down in trip and is unexposed, but strikes me as a weak favourite, nonetheless.

Phoenix Star and Concierge are the obvious interests for me, having caught the eye in their last runs. In saying that, the #8 draw isn’t ideal for Phoenix Star, who’s also one of the more popular horses in the market this morning.

High draws have a poor record over this course and distance. That aside, he strikes me as best over the minimum trip, perhaps with some cut in the ground. He’s yet to win over 6f on turf, hence Concierge is the more interesting horse today.

His record over 6 furlongs isn’t brilliant, either. However, he is a distance winner, even on good to soft in the past, has been able to stretch out to 7 furlongs, and has clearly the speed for the minimum trip (which may be his optimum).

In any case, I was impressed by his comeback run last month at Kempton, where he was a serious eyecatcher:

Concierge travelled at the back of the field. Made really good progress on the inside, showed multiple accelerations from mid-race right onward to finish the fastest from 4f out.

He couldn’t follow-up at Chelmsford, but travelling wide throughout, chasing the pace, was the reason why he dropped out badly in the closing stages.

As a consequence he’s down another couple of pounds, a new career-lowest. He ran to a 64 speed rating at Kempton, though, suggesting there’s enough there to believe he can win.

Whether he is still as good as last season remains to be seen, now that he’s back on turf. Last year he ran well a number of times, including when achieving a 73 speed rating run at Newmarket over 6 furlongs.

He drops down to class 6 today – obviously he’s not the force of old, but this is much easier than anything he’s encountered even in the more recent past.

Even though I’m not totally sold on credentials over 6f on turf, I feel he’s still got too much class for these rivals. He definitely won’t mind the ground, looks to be in fine form, and if on a going day (i.e. allowed to run on merit) he could be hard to beat.

10pts win – Concierge @ 6/1

Betting

Preview: Grand National 2023

2 Comments

Can Noble Yeats “do a Tiger Roll”? Here’s a look at the main contenders and my attempt at solving the puzzle that is the 175th annual running of the Grand National.

A full field of 40 horses go to post with weights ranging from 11-12 to 10-2. It’s still a puzzle to solve, though, perhaps less the lottery and unpredictable race it was in the past.

Less difficult fences to jump, less carnage, less surprises. Class horses with big weights can win. The race looks completely different to those editions of half a century ago.

Last night I watched the wonderful DVD “12 Greatest Ever Grand Nationals” – great trip down the memory lane, but the race was a different kind of a beast compared to what it is these days.

The modern version of the Grand National is about class. Horses can certainly win with 11 stone plus on their back. We’ve seen it a number of times in more recent times.

Stamina is key, as a race over the marathon distance of 4m 2½f should be. Perhaps that makes it somewhat less a test of pure jumping ability. Personally I’m okay with this fact if it goes along with a safer race for horse and rider.

2023 Grand National Contenders

Favourite Corach Rambler is as short as 6/1 in the betting. There is certainly a form of recency bias included after his spectacular victory at the Cheltenham Festival.

Corach Rambler is a tricky sort, though. He needs to be ridden in a certain way and will require all the luck in the world to get a clear run from the back of the field.

It’ll require a lot of faith to back him at this rather skinny price. It sure is going to be the most spectacular victory should he pick his way through the field to win the Grand National.

Personally I find it hard to see how there could be any juice left in his price, though. There is no chance that I could make him a shorter price in my book. In fact, he’s too short, in my view.

Delta Work is the second choice in the market. He won the Cross-Country at the Festival for the second year running. He looked as good as ever when he beat well fancied stable mate Galvin last month.

He was third in the Grand National last year but also 22 lengths beaten. Perhaps a different ride could change his fortunes?

Possibly. Nonetheless, I find it hard to see how he could improve on that run twelve months later. He’s a well-exposed 10-year-old. One pound lower than last year won’t make a difference – a mark of 159 looks far from a giveaway.

Noble Yeats was a surprise winner last year. A surprise on the day more so for the general public than connections. They knew they had a tremendously well-handicapped horse on their hands. We know that by now as well.

He’s a classy individual and judged on his Gold Cup run – arguably the strongest performance by any horse in this years Grand National field – must be considered a prime contender once more, even off a much higher mark.

Tiger Roll proved you can win back-to-back and big weights aren’t a hindrance to winning the modern Grand National, either. Noble Yeats has to overcome a 19lb higher mark than twelve month ago, though.

That seems fair given the way he took his form to a new level this season, including that excellent 4th place finish in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. But that extra weight is a game changer, I firmly believe.

Tiger Roll only had to content with an additional 9lbs when winning back-to-back. Noble Yeats, perhaps a better horse right now than Tiger Roll was when winning his second National, doesn’t appear to be necessarily unfairly handicapped. At the same time I fear this weight is too much even for the classy Noble Yeats.

If talking about Noble Yeats one has to mention last years runner-up Any Second. He was less than three lengths beaten and ran a huge race in defeat.

He’s arguably unlucky not to have won a Grand National by now, after a superb, and somewhat unlucky 3rd place two years ago.

He’s another year older. This is his third attempt and he’s 8lb higher than last year, 15lb higher than 2021. His preparation has been spot on and he should be right there when it matters, but anything better than finishing in the placings is hard to imagine.

Willie Mullins sends out a small army. His best shot – judged purely on odds – seems Gaillard Du Mesnil who won the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last month.

Perhaps he was a bit fortunate because he benefited in no uncertain terms from the fall of a threatening rival. That begs the question: would he be as short in the betting if he’d finished runner-up that day?

I think he’s a few points too short, and no value to back in this race. Although he should stay, and that may allow him to be right there when it matters most.

The other well fancied Willie Mullins runner is Mr Incredible. He seems to catch a bit of momentum in the betting. He’s a quite lightly raced 7-year-old with an abundance of improvement left over staying trips, I believe.

He ran on for third place in the Kim Muir last month and may have finished closer if not for making a huge mistake at the last fence that cost him vital momentum.

He was a good second in a hot Grade 3 Handicap Chase at Warwick prior as well. On both forms he looks at the very least fairly weighted on handicapping terms.

He strikes me as one who had a lovely preparation for the race with a mark that has been somewhat protected this season as he ran well without showing all his cards, possibly.

There is every chance he can improve. If he does indeed, he would be a well-handicapped horse. Obviously, with Mr Incredible, talent is only one side of the coin.

He’s a seriously tricky sort and will need quite a bit of luck, given he is likely to race in rear of the field. That’s the reason why there are still big prices available to back him, especially on the Exchanges. But if he gets a clear run I can see him go all the way.

Longhouse Poet was my fancy twelve months ago. He probably did too much too soon, chasing a pretty hot pace, before tiering badly for 6th place finish, 34 lengths behind the winner.

He’s a fair shot once again off a near similar mark, I reckon. Possibly ridden with a little bit more restraint this time, he should get home better. I still can’t quite shake the impression of how badly he faded last year, though.

Hennessy winner Le Milos looks intriguing off only 6lb higher than when he landed the big handicap at Newbury in November. He travelled strongly throughout the race, made lovely progress, before hitting the front in the home straight and fought gutsily to the line.

He had a lovely prep run in early March at Kelso in the meantime, most likely not fully tuned up and not given the best of rides. There were plenty of positives to take away from that reapperance, nonetheless.

Clearly the 8-year-old is still on the up and a stayer of great potential after only ten runs over fences, and three this season. In my view he looks like an ideal National horse.

He should have a prime chance. He’s a good jumper, can hold his position well and most likely has the stamina required for the National.

Galvin was always thought of as a National horse more so than one who wins Gold Cups. Therefore, he probably outran expectations somewhat when winning the Savills Chase and finished a fine 4th in a Cheltenham Gold Cup last year.

He’s not been the same horse this season. Apparently he had a back issue in preparation for the Cross-Country Chase; he still finished a strong runner-up behind stable mate Delta Work last month.

I fancied him there, but off a 166 rating, the same as Noble Yeats, I struggle to see how he can be handicapped to win. You would have to believe he’s as good a horse as Noble Yeats is at this moment in time.

Would Galvin have finished 4th in the Gold Cup this year? Most definitely not. He was 10/3 for the Savills Chase this season, when he finished second last, a long way beaten. He’s not the same horse this season as he was the season before.

Highly talented 7-yeaer-old Capodanno is an interesting runner. He’s got the class and is lightly raced. He was only seen once this season, since winning the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown a year ago. That’s far from ideal preparation and off-putting.

Sam Thomas saddles Our Power. A seriously progressive horse. Unbeaten this season in two runs. On a really fair mark. If he can extend to the National trip he’ll be a huge runner. But a son of Power – who I have seen myself at the Curragh win a National Stakes and Guineas – stretches my imagination to see how he could stay the distance.

2021 Albert Bartlett winner Vanillier could have the required stamina and class. He finished a promising runner-up in the Bobbyjo Chase in February. His jumping can be a bit hit and miss, but he could be dangerous off 147 if he finds a good rhythm.

If you ignore The Big Breakaway’s poor showing at Cheltenham last month, one could make a solid argument for him to have the capabilities to outrun his big price tag.

He’s a strong stayer, was an excellent second in the Welsh National this season and may find back to his best with blinkers fitted.

I wouldn’t rule out Coko Beach to run well, either. He’s in good nick after landing a Grand National Trial in February and ran well for a long time in the Grand National last year. Ultimately he did way too much in front and didn’t get home.

If he can race with a little more restraint this time, he’s not without a chance to finish in the placings.

The Big Dog is a strong stayer and not out of it, although I feel he’s too high in the mark to be considered a contender for victory.

Same could be said about Lifetime Ambition, who’s got to content with a 8lb higher mark than in the Troytown Chase back in November, where he finished a fine runner-up behind The Big Dog, following on from a solid 4th in the Sefton over the National fences.

Unexposed Ain’t That A Shame looks to have been protected all season. he was a tough runner-up in the Munster National behind The Big Dog back in October. Only seen twice since then, one has to trust his fitness and stamina.

From the bigger prices Recite A Prayer is one who may outrun his odds. Second in the Kerry National at the beginning of the season; a Killarney National winner last year. He stays well but hasn’t been seen since disappointing at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Eva’s Oskar has stamina in abundance, ultimately is not classy enough you would think, but is also one of the more realistic bigger prices to potentially hit the frame.

Summary:

The 2023 Grand National appears to be a wide open affair. Would Noble Yeats win again he’d be one of the all-time greats in my view. He looks all class and should run a huge race once again.

Yet, from a betting perspective I’ll can’t get passed the credentials Le Milos brings to the table.

He simply looks the ideal National horse to me. He’s had a lovely preparation. Showed strong form this season. Is still progressive and possibly better handicapped than he should.

He also remains underappreciated in the betting. He beat Corach Rambler comprehensively this season, yet is a multiple times the price of the favourite.

He receives 14lb from Noble Yeats. Possibly fair on a variety on ratings if purely judged on actual form. What may give him the edge, though: he’s a progressive stayer who continues to improve..

At the same time I can’t leave out Mr Incredible. He needs luck, and may be too far off the pace, ultimately. On the other hand he’s hugely talented and weighted to go seriously close – if things go well.

He’s a quirky sort, but if he gets a clear run he’ll look a huge price come the end of the race. This progressive and lightly raced individual impressed in the Kim Muir when last seen and has plenty of upside at this stage of his career.

6pts win – Le Milos @ 17/1
4pts win – Mr Incredible @ 23/1
(SM/MB)

Betting

Thursday Selections: 13th April 2023

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7.30 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Love Destination and Global Tycoon are two intriguing eyecatchers here. Previously flagged Tomas Equinas is also in the race and remains of interest back in handicap company off a 50 OR.

Nonetheless, Global Tycoon is the one I am most interested in. This pretty lightly raced gelding drops down to the 7f trip, which should suit as it will help him to settle and relax a bit better than he did over a mile .

I quite liked his recent comeback run at Southwell over a mile having returned from 274 days off the track, though. He quickly moved forward to grab the lead, not uncontested for the most part, though.

He was keen in the first half of the race but then travelled well enough turning for home, before he hung over 1f out, which was also when he finally relinquished the lead for good.

Perhaps he needed the run and that was a reason why dropped out badly in the final 200 yards but I’m neither sold on Global Tycoon truly staying a mile.

He won well at Kempton over 7f on handicap debut last autumn off a mark of 53, doing so quite comfortably, suggesting he was certainly ahead of his mark that day, even though the form didn’t amount to much, in truth.

He remains still lightly raced. This here is going to be only his seventh career run, his fourth handicap start and second time over 7 furlongs.

He’ll makes tons of appeal off his reassessed 56 mark, especially with a solid 5lb claiming apprentice in the saddle.

Cheek-pieces are an interesting addition that may address any tendencies to hang in the closing stages. It’s not quite clear how the pace will unfold here but I reckon Global Tycoon won’t be too far away and can lead, if required.

10pts win – Global Tycoon @ 6/1

Eyecatchers

Eyecatchers #10

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather and turf. Find all previous lists here.

Apache Star
06/03/23 – 5.30 Wolverhampton:

Quickly overcame his wide draw to move forward and grab the lead. Pushed a fast pace, going hard early on, while pestered on the outside. Still ahead approaching the final furlong and only went down late.

Excellent run off a career-lowest mark. Ran twice to higher speed ratings on the All-Weather. Clearly in shape to win again. Only one win from 19 runs is a poor return, though.

Didn’t always have luck with the draw latest. Has speed for minimum trip as well. Big chance wherever he goes next with a good draw and if he can dominate from the front. (huge nto performance 08/04 in hot race)

Race Replay

Watermelon Sugar
07/03/23 – 4.00 Lingfield:

Held up in last, going strongly as the field turned for home. Good progress against inside rail but momentum stopped, didn’t get a run until switched late to finish seriously well nearly hard held.

Held back in last races. Normally, if on a going day, right up with the pace. Seems to have speed for minimum trip but probably best over 6 furlongs.

Interesting on the All-Weather with money and a good draw; otherwise clearly one to monitor for the first weeks back on turf (subsequent run 28/03 ca be excused due to poor start).

Race Replay

Gatwick Kitten
07/03/23 – 5.10 Lingfield:

Tracked the pace going well on the inside where he came challenging from two furlongs out, before having his momentum stopped by shifting rival who closed the gap.

Comeback run, and first start for new yard. Looks in fine form. Did improve in the past for reappearance. Appears to be fairly handicapped on last seasons form.

Any improvement to come out of the yard change will see him have a cracking chance, especially back on turf over 5-6 furlongs. He loves it over the 5.5f at Brighton in particular (something seemed amiss next time out 28/03, also over 7f; somewhat worrying but will give him the chance).

Race Replay

Broughtons Flare
08/03/23 – 4.30 Lingfield:

Seriously keen the first half of race race, travelling wide, without cover. It was impressive to see him still able to finished the fastest over the last tree furlongs from off the pace.

Remains in strong form. Won three times earlier this year. Not desperately well handicapped on speed ratings off current mark, but a drop to 7 furlongs would be really interesting, if not a mile with a good pace to aim at.

Otherwise one to wait for, to drop a couple of pounds (ignore next time 25/03 over 8.5f, not the right trip).

Race Replay

Lion Ring
08/03/23 – 5.35 Kempton:

Moved quickly forward from wide draw, travelled on the outside, pushing the pace. Outpaced from over two furlongs out but gutsy and finished well to the line in hot race. Ran career-best speed rating

Was 2lb out of the weights. Recently claimed from Ireland. Ran well many times over there, but remains a maiden after 29 starts.

He can win if he drops down to class 6 over 6f I firmly believe as he may find these lower races in the UK easier (15/8 favourite nto, touched rail, short of room, odd run, can be excused).

Race Replay

Concierge
08/03/23 – 5.35 Kempton:

Travelled the back of the field. Made really good progress on the inside, showed multiple accelerations from mid-race right onward to finish the fastest from 4f out.

Excellent comeback run. He’s down to a good mark. Can be slowly away but judged on last years turf campaign, especially the first half, he is now handicapped to win soon, especially as he showed here to be in brilliant form. (nto 25/03 to be ignored; wait for return to turf).

Race Replay

Pillar Of Hope
09/03/23 – 6.15 Newcastle:

Alertly away, disputed the lead, until coming under pressure from 2 furlongs out. Kept going well before fading inside the final furlong.

Comeback run. Won twice on his return before. Probably better on turf and over 10 furlongs. Career-best in September at Redcar, when he ran to 86 speed rating. One to keep an eye out for turf in a few weeks time.

Race Replay

Piranheer
09/03/23 – 1.15 Southwell:

Poor start from #1 draw, soon detached in rear and plenty to do. Motored home from three furlongs out to finish the fastest, doing so rather easily under hands and heels.

Looks one who’s prepared for a specific day. One to monitor in the betting; judged on this form he’s certainly able to win off his current mark if the handbrake is off.

Race Replay

Love Destiny
10/03/23 – 8.30 Kempton:

Up with the good pace early on travelling wide, before settling in 2nd/3rd tracking a few lengths off. Going okay turning for home but came under severe pressure and seemingly going backwards from 2f out. Impressive how he fought back to finish 4th.

Looks to hit form. Drop in grade helped as well. Lost another 3lb on his official rating, and clearly down to dangerous mark. Possibly one ready to strike soon over 7f in similar race.

Race Replay

Kitbag
13/03/23 – 6.30 Wolverhampton:

Right up with the early and hot pace from his wide draw; was the only one who kept going in the final furlong, bar the strongly finishing favourite from off the pace.

Not exactly lightly raced. But chance given by handicapper now, and offers scope to move up in trip given his pedigree. Would be especially interesting over 7f (excellent nto 2nd place effort over 6f again, strong form possibly).

Race Replay

Nordic Glory
17/03/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Travelled in midfield, going okay and possibly poised for challenge turning for home when carrying his head awkwardly. Appeared short of room a number of times too, but kept going well. Finished seriously strongly nto (31/03) when in rear and wide.

Clearly hitting strong form. Will be big runner soon; back over 5 or 6f on turf also interesting. Still winless on grass but ran career best speed rating last summer at Goodwood. Probably best on decent ground.

Race Replay

Motagally
18/03/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Awkward away from widest draw, bumped by rival; settled in rear but seriously keen. Good progress from the back of the field against the inside rial in the home straight.

Normally 7f too far. Hasn’t shown much for nearly two years, although somewhat unlucky in final run last year. The way he finished here suggests he’s close to hitting some proper form.

Intriguing if he can find a 6f race on turf with decent to fast ground.

Race Replay

My Little Tip
24/03/23 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Went quickly forward from the widest draw to dispute early- then chase the pace. Bit flat footed over 2f out but ran on well for 4th without able to match pace of winner.

Ran well this winter at Dundalk. Down to good mark now, especially on turf over 7f. Ideally decent ground but anything good to soft to good to firm that’s not on the extremer side should be fine.

Race Replay

Apprentice
24/03/23 – 7.30 Dundalk:

Up with the pace early on from the widest draw. Travelling widest throughout, not an economical ride. Tried to apply pressure from 3f out but didn’t have pace to match of speedier rivals. Ran well to the line nonetheless.

Lightly raced, only second Handicap start. Half-sister needed 10 furlongs to win. Looks on the small size. One to monitor for the step up in trip into an easier race. Betting will also determine when she tries.

Race Replay

Macho Pride
24/03/23 – 7.15 Newcastle:

Pushed the past as part of duo until he hit the front briefly 2f out, then tired rapidly, although didn’t fully collapse and showed encouraginging signs as he went hard the first couple of furlongs.

Solid performances in recent months with ever threatening. Rewarded with a lovely mark now, ready for a 6f turf sprint on decent ground.

Well-handicapped in those conditions as he confirmed he’s probably still capable to run to the sort of level he showed last season when he ran three times to speed ratings of 57+.

Race Replay

Beau Jardine
25/03/23 – 4.40 Lingfield:

Made most of #1 draw and went forward to lead, set seriously good pace, going well and only swamped for good entering the final furlong, but continued to ran well to the line without being hammered.

Clear return to form after a long drop in the ratings on the back of poor showings ever since the early days of his career. This should be strong form.

Dropped another 2lb and of serious interest next time with any support in the market, most likely at his best over a mile.

Race Replay

Ventura Express
25/03/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Smartly away but soon restrained from his wide draw. In rear going well; steered into traffic approaching the home straight; only clear inside the final furlong finishing seriously well.

Clearly in strong form. Ran career best speed rating a few weeks earlier. Minium trip probably his best. Won last summer off 80 on turf. Not dramatically well handicapped off 79 right now but clearly ripe for a big run once the handbreak is off for good again.

Race Replay

Harry The Haggler
27/03/23 – 2.45 Lingfield:

Moved forward from wide draw and tracked the pace. Bit raw in the early parts of the race (possibly received a kick from horse in front just before the first bend). Turned wide and awkward for home and lost ground. Ran on well.

Good form. Still lightly raced as this was his handicap debut. Came back in January after being off the track and gelded since May. Appears to cry out out for a step up in trip, although I feel 7 furlongs on a less sharp track is also worth a try.

Race Replay

Harry’s Hill
25/03/23 – 2.15 Curragh:

Bit awkward away, but then showed then good ealy speed, disputing the lead. Going well for a long time before falling away in the final furlong.

Was up against it on class here as well as next time at Cork when not disgraced either. Both runs warrant upgrading as ground too soft to see him at his best.

Should find it easier in lesser grade and may get more help from handicapper too. Minimum trip on ground not properly soft remains of interest.

Race Replay

Tammany Hall
25/03/23 – 5.37 Curragh:

Travelled well enough in midfield and solid progress from 3f out, before being carried to his left from 2f out. Short of room in a pocket about 1.5f from home. Effort petered out once in the clear.

Dropped 3lb in the meantime. Infrequent winner but probably well-handicapped judged on strong runs in Handicaps last season. 5-6f with cut in the ground the ideal scenario. Should improve for this return.

Race Replay

The Toff
29/03/23 – 1.35 Lingfield:

Tracked the pace, although first couple of furlongs not the most economical, let the leader and eventual winner kick before going after him. Finished strong second and fastest last three furlongs of all.

Still a maiden, though, not without promise in a number of runs prior. Gelded in October and two good runs subsequently, but he didn’t see out a mile.

Dropped to good mark and clearly able to win over 7f furlongs. Uncomplicated sort usually up with the pace. Interesting if he can find a slightly easier race over 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Ballybaymoonshiner
29/03/23 – 2.10 Lingfield:

Went quickly forward from the widest gate (#13) to grab the lead and set a solid pace. Going well turning for home and still in front approaching the final furlong marker. Only went down inside the last half furlong.

Good performance and rock solid form. Knocked on the door multiple times despite still being a maiden after 15 runs. A mile is too far, 7f right on his limit.

Ran a number of solid speed ratings in the last weeks and months that suggest he’s well capable to win off a 51 mark. Chelmsford entry over 7f on Thursday of real interest if he’s got a good draw.

Race Replay

Nefarious:
29/03/23 – 2.45 Lingfield:

Slowly away, in rear, outpaced from over 3 furlongs out, seemingly back on the bridle entering the home straight with delayed effort from jockey who made sure the horse got the most uneconomical ride possible.

6f is on the sharp side. Wasn’t in it to win it and hasn’t been the last few times. Dropped to sexy mark and of serious interest over 7f again.

Race Replay

Phoenix Star
29/03/23 – 8.30 Kempton:

Held up well off the pace, had loads to d still over two furlongs out then picked his way through the field and fished incredibly strongly.

Dropped another 2lb for this effort. Clearly in strong form, ran well this winter on the AW as well. On a good mark for sand and turf. Ran to better speed ratings multiple time in the last half year. Effective over 5-6f.

Race Replay

Ghost Lights
31/03/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Wide draw no help, forced to settle in rear. Going okay before turned wide for challenge, finished strongly against front-runner pace bias in slowly run race. Probably decent form.

Lightly raced, handicap debut. Showed promise in three starts prior. Pedigree points to possible improvement for step up to 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Mucky Mulconry
31/03/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Path forward blocked after the start, forced to settle off the pace. Asked for effort from over 2 furlongs out. Huge finish against the inside rail in slowly run race.

Second run for new yard since moving over from Ireland. Still lightly raced enough and this effort when money was down suggests he’s capable to win off a mark around 50.

Race Replay

Dark Design
31/03/23 – 2.25 Lingfield:

Moved quickly forward from his wide draw to track eventual and very strong winner racing in second place. Didn’t have the pace to match and tired in the final furlong.

Still solid ran, as mostly he ran well in recent weeks and months. Dropped 2lb and interesting anywhere from 6-8f on AW or turf. Won off 55 and 57 last season, ran to 56 speed rating in January.

Race Replay

Sir Benedict
31/03/23 – 6.20 Newcastle:

Awkward start, in rear, behind a wall of horses from 2f out; good progress from 1f out, before stopped again with half a furlong to go.

Tricky sort who finds trouble regularly. Clearly down to good mark and in super form. With a clear run very much ready to strike next time.

Race Replay

Global Tycoon
31/03/23 – 3.15 Southwell:

Moved forward to grab the lead, not uncontested for the most part, though. Keen in the first half of the race. Going okay turning for home, only relinquished lead around the final furlong then tired rapidly.

Return off 274 days off. Not sure he stays a mile, either. Won well at Kempton over 7f last autumn. Still lightly raced. Interesting down to 7f again off his reassessed 56 mark.

Race Replay

Cruise
01/04/23 – 4.25 Kempton:

Raced in last, bit raw and fresh, niggled; attempted to make challenge from 2f out when going best toward the inside, path blocked and short of room until jockey takes big pull at the final furlong marker to get space on the outside. Finished easily the best under hands and heels.

Fair to assume she would have won with a clear run, perhaps even if she would have been ridden more vigorously in the final furlong in any case. Depth of form questionable, though.

Changed yards during winter for £27,000. First start since August. Should improve. Opening mark possibly lenient on this evidence. May be to short a price next time (entry 11/04).

Race Replay

Greatgadian
01/04/23 – 3.35 Doncaster:

The wide draw was far from an advantage, he travelled in rear and had to come around the widest outside on the far side to make a challenge from over two furlongs out. Flat footed from 1f out but kept going well to the line.

In solid form all winter. Definitely prefers better ground than the deep going in the Lincoln. Stays 10 furlongs and now down to a mark of 98 interesting on better ground.

Race Replay

Glory Fighter
02/04/23 – 5.40 Doncaster:

Went forward, but not before the jockey lost his irons early; quickly recovered, led but closely followed. Under pressure from 2f out and gradually weakened, though, ran well to the line for 3rd place.

Good reappearance. Down to fair mark. Caught the eye a few times last year without winning. Pretty ground independent, bar proper fast ground. Although, best performances came on good to soft to genuine good ground, over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Toussarok
03/04/23 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Led, setting a steady pace, travelling full of enthusiasm. Challenged from two furlongs and no chance with the winner, but impressive how he kept answering the calls, stuck his neck out and found for pressure.

Clearly in good nick. On good mark. Won off 79 last year on turf. Ideally drops down to 6f on decent ground. Otherwise happy to wait, as if he drops a few pounds he’ll be seriously well handicapped.

Race Replay

Cavalier Approach
04/04/23 – 8.00 Southwell:

Bit awkward away from the gate. Travelled well against inside rail before short of room over 2 furlongs out, lost ground and momentum but jockey also didn’t seem particularly bothered. Finished nicely under light hands and heels.

Clearly never been in it to win it and never has been in five career runs. Worth to monitor the market the next few times. Seems to be in good shape.

Comes down to solid mark now, ran 55 speed rating last autumn which looks legit given the depth of that form. Minimum trip should be fine for now. May have some scope to move up in trip, too.

Race Replay

Revoquable
04/04/23 – 3.45 Thirsk:

Wide draw forced him to settle well off the pace. Trailed as the field turned for home, delayed challenge before getting into the clear about two furlongs from home. Ran on well but couldn’t get back to winner. Finished best of all.

Down to good mark now, after largely uneventful All-Weather season since a strong 1m win at Southwell in October.

Ran to 59 speed rating that day, hence fair to assume off 54 (if left untouched by handicapper) he’s got to be an interesting runner on possibly better ground over 7-8f.

Race Replay

Makalu
04/04/023 – 4.15 Thirsk:

Unusual good start but wide draw forced him to settle in rear. Trailed when turning for home but made excellent progress from 3f out before not quite the clearest of runs from two furlongs from home. Finished best.

Excellent reappearance and return to form after a bunch of poor performances last season. Clearly capable off 55, having ran to better speed ratings in the past.

One who wasn’t the sharpest out of the gate and needs a bit of luck due to his racing style. Ideally better ground, 6-7 furlongs fine.

Race Replay

Captain Corcoran
04/04/23 – 5.45 Thirsk:

Awkward start, held up in rear, travelled well, good progress from three furlongs out but not clear run entering the final furlong. Finished nicely nonetheless under pretty easy ride.

Clearly ridden with intend not to show all of his cards here. Usually up with the pace. Nice reappearance after light All-Weather campaign in any case. On a good turf mark and ready to rock any time soon.

Race Replay

Coast
05/04/23 – 2.25 Wolverhampton:

Moved quickly forward and set fast pace. Had the field on the stretch and still ahead approaching final furlong before fading badly.

Doesn’t stay 7f. Strong run, backed up recent massive runner-up performance. Down to six furlongs will become interesting. Although has a couple of 7f entries. Hopefully she can get find a way to drop below 54 to become seriously intriguing.

Race Replay

Totnes
05/04/23 – 3.00 Wolverhampton:

Travelled very strongly in rear of the field, good progress from 3f out. going much the best. Challenge petered out from over 1f out as she hang badly to the left.

Can be excused. Perhaps something wasn’t right. She was ultra-impressive weeks earlier over the same C&D, winning in the manner of a talented filly on only her second career run.

She should be better than than the 71 opening mark. Pedigree points to stamina for more improvement to come beyond 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Albert Cee
05/04/23 – 4.30 Kempton:

Off to a quick start, right up with the hot pace, travelled strongly and kicked on over 2f out. Beaten by better horse on the day but impressive as he fought back gamely late.

Could improve for this outing, first one for a new yard and as a 3-year-old. Uncomplicated sort, and if not too harshly reassessed by the handicapper, of real interest in similar race with a little bit less pace to compete.

Race Replay

Intervention
06/04/23 – 6.30 Southwell:

Hard to control as overly keen early on, led go after first two furlongs. Established comfortable lead but did way too much and faded badly in the home straight. 1m is too far, in any case.

Highly frustrating sort due to incredible consistently. Ran numerous times really well over the winter (inlcuding lto catching the eye). But in the grip of the handicapper. Ran two career best speed ratings this winter as well.

Perhaps it was a final bow by connections that he need help from the handicapper to allow him to run a race without intent to do well. One to monitor, if he can find a way to fall to 75 he’d be intriguing over 6f on the AW. Would like to see more assistance before being interested on turf.

Race Replay

Creme De Cacao
06/04/23 – 7.30 Southwell:

Keenly moved forward and led, set good pace, although closely followed and put under pressure around the bend. Kicked on while travelling on the bridle approaching the home straight. Tired from 2f out but nice attitude as she fought back gamely all the way to the line.

If she can settle a bit better, which isn’t impossible, given this was the handicap debut for this lightly raced filly (April foal), she offers upside off her opening mark. Not impossible that she can drop to 6 furlongs also.

Race Replay

Compare
06/04/23 – 2.10 Chelmsford:

Awkward start, heavily bumped a rival, led early on before settling in third. Kicked on nicely against inside rail approaching the home straight; hit the front 1f out, strong run to the line but no chance with winner from off the pace eventually.

Possibly strong form. Winner won back-to-back with this; third won last time out. Others looked solid in this field. He was a 50/1 shot, clearly outran his price.

Still lightly raced enough. Offers upside over a mile ran at a decent pace. May stretch out to 10 furlongs; either way deserves another chance.

Race Replay

Mr Escobar
07/04/23 – 2.05 Lingfield:

Travelled very smoothly tracking the pace. Confident ride, jockey took multiple pulls as they turned the home bend, seemingly going much the best. Didn’t get the gap in the home straight and minded in the closing stages.

Short-priced favourite, Ryan Moore spoke in glowing words beforehand; an obvious one, perhaps too short next time. Lightly raced, improved nicely at Dundalk in maiden company. Clearly ahead of his mark over these sort of trips.

Race Replay

Captain Dandy
07/04/23 – 1.40 Bath:

Had no chance from the widest draw but did exceptionally well against the bias finishing best of those drawn in the high numbers.

Confirmed huge impression from lto win at Wolverhampton when he finished seriously well after missing the break and giving the field a headstart.

Tricky sort who can miss the break, did much better here at Bath and perhaps the penny has dropped, somewhat. One to keep an eye on for headgear and/or for being gelded.

Race Replay

Madam Fenella
07/04/23 – 2.15 Bath:

Awkward start, wore hood to post; she’s tricky as the past tells. Travelled well and did seriously well to finish as close as she did from her wide draw.

Had limited opportunities on turf in handicap company. Ascot run from last September noteworthy. Probably not much scope in terms of moving up in trip beyond 6 furlongs.

Intriguing once she drops down to class 6 on turf. She seems to handle soft ground but has shown to stay 6 furlongs as well, possibly interesting on better ground.

Race Replay

Gioia Cieca
08/04/23 – 2.25 Musselburgh:

Not quite the sharpest of starts early on; soon tracked the pace and was going okay with bit of progress on inside before heavily under pressure from 2f out. Stuck with it and ran well to the line, no match for winner, though.

Good to see him finish well after break and first time since a wind OP. Can be upgraded as softish ground far from ideal. Hasn’t ran overly impressive speed ratings yet but deserves a chance over 7f on decent to fast ground.

Possibly well-handicapped in those conditions judged on last season. Not one to give to many chances but worth to wait for his conditions, in any case.

Race Replay

Rock Melody
08/04/23 – 4.45 Musselburgh:

In rear racing against the inside rail with plenty to do over 1f out. Rapid progress but squeezed and short of room in the closing stages; finished really well.

Lovely return from a break and for a new yard. Trip on the sharp side. Better over 6 and 7 furlongs. On a workable mark, has ran to similar speed ratings already.

Race Replay

Mustaffiz
08/04/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Missed break, keen afterwards. Uneventful run. Caught the eye a number of times when he ran well in last weeks and entered on Eyecatchers #7.

Really liked his lto Kempton run as well. However, after he tried a number of times now it’s clear now he’s in the grip of the handicapper and needs some help, hence no surprise to see him having missed the break here.

Monitor as he falls below 60 (ideally 58 and lower) for return to front-running tactics over stiff 5f or 6f.

Race Replay

Three Beauz
09/04/23 – 2.05 Southwell:

Bit awkward away, bumped by rival, possibly lit up as a consequence. Travelled keenly, approached 2f powerfully, though. Behind wall of horses, had to switch very wide, made good ground all the time. Couldn’t quite sustain effort.

Off a break, still lightly raced and offers plenty of upside. Looks capable to win off current mark if he can progress from this run. Number of good performances as a juvenile, also on turf. Decent ground and minimum trip would be intriguing.

Race Replay

Betting

Saturday Selections: 8th April 2023

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Off to a good start in April: Emperor Spirit (11/1, SP 10/1) won his Lingfield race that surprisingly went nearly exactly as outlined beforehand and provided the second winner for the month.

Even though, I must admit, halfway through the race I felt he went too hard from the front. Turns out Jamie Spencer judged it to perfection as Emperor Spirit held on (for dear life) but had enough left in the tank to get home.

Only ten minutes later a bit of a downer: Reach was a major disappointment. She fell away quickly in the closing stages and never looked like winning. I fancied her a lot, and am prepared to give her one more chance.

…….

5.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 6f

Inchbae was denied by the late charging Jenny Renn last month at this track, although over the two furlongs shorter 1m 4f distance. These two meet again here in this Handicap for Amateur riders and seem to be the horses to focus on.

The step up in trip swings it toward Inchbae for me, who should appreciate the extra distance. There is plenty of stamina in her pedigree and she’s one you’d hope she can improve with age and experience.

Still a maiden, but she showed promise toward the end of last season, especially when runner-up at Chelmsford over 10 furlongs off 54. She changed yards afterwards and didn’t run as bad as the pure form suggests on stable debut at Dundalk.

She improved dramatically for that outing next time at Wolverhampton. obviously a tricky sort, she didn’t see the late effort from Jenny Renn coming on the outside from back of the field there and didn’t have time to respond, I believe.

This 1m 6f contest looks an even poorer race, with very few proper dangers. The #13 isn’t ideal on paper but unlikely to pose issues. There isn’t much pace here, so I’d expect her to move across quickly to establish potentially a soft lead.

She may have enough speed to bring it home once competent amateur rider Eireann Cagney kicks-on from about 3.5 furlongs from home – the way I envision it with naïve hope.

10pts win – Inchbae @ 6/1