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Betting

Wednesday Selections: 5th April 2023

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4.45 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

In an ideal world Bang On The Bell would race off his soon to be revised mark, or even a couple of pounds lower, but I feel even off 71 he’s got a fine chance to win in this race against beatable opposition, especially with the race possibly to pan out in his favour.

I don’t judge him harshly on the way he dropped away last time he was seen. That day he had to overcame the widest draw – which he did – but was then way too keen in the first half of the race over 6 furlongs that was a stretch.

He’s better judged on his penultimate run over this course and distance as he encounters it here, when once again he enjoyed a perfect and quick start from the widest draw to get to the leaders right before the field entered the turn.

He pushed a strong pace as part of trio, before getting quite tired in the home straight once again. That looks good form, and was an improvement on his comeback run prior.

In my view the last two runs warrant an upgrade. In that light, it’s clear he’ll enjoy the return to the minimum trip, this time without the disadvantage of a wide draw.

There’s only one other true pace horse in this small field, so it won’t be any hassle to get to the front. It should help that the other possible pace setter, Glorious Charmer – who doesn’t seem well handicapped now – is going to be there to help push a good pace,.

This scenario in turn may help Bang On The Bell to relax a bit better and then enjoy possibly the run of the race turning for home. He ran to a 72 speed rating back in August over this C&D, and 70 in December over 5f at Chelmsford – therefore he’s clearly capable to run to the level required to win here.

10pts win – Bang On The Bell @ 9/2

……

4.55 Nottingham: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

A minefield of unknowns but there is no question Dog Fox is the most intriguing one here. He’s one I flagged up in my 3-year-old handicappers to follow list and feel this represents a superb opportunity to get off the mark.

This confidence may seem misplaced given Dog Fox showed nothing in three runs as a juvenile. However, those runs came over trips that were clearly on the sharp side.

He’s bred to enjoy middle-distance trips and is expected to improve dramatically in handicap company going up in trip. The majority of his dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs, as his sire Cityscape has a 10.1 stamina index to offer.

An opening mark of 63 looks stiff judged purely on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.

The soft ground won’t be an issue I reckon. The sire and dam enjoyed cut in the ground during their respective racing careers.

10pts win – Dog Fox @ 3/1

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5.00 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Am I really prepared to follow Sharon Macready over the cliff? I certainly am! This filly is hugely frustrating but no doubt has some talent and is well handicapped if she can finally relax a bit better. She’s ready to win, sooner rather than later.

Going up in trip does seem counterintuitive. But I do believe the trip doesn’t really matter. She stays the distance as she is a proven distance winner and ‘all’ it takes is her to relax in the early parts a bit better. Without dropping her head she won’t get home even over three furlongs.

I can make excuses for her recent run at Southwell. It was as strange race, although one that looks strong the way the form worked out. Sharon Macready had an award start, also bumped rival, was a huge price on the day and never looked like the same enthusiastic individual she did prior.

I liked those three earlier runs this year – she showed often blistering early speed but made life difficult for herself. She is now down to a 60 rating – clearly she is better than that, also given her full-sister has multiple wins at 60+ to her name,

The race could work out well from a pace scenario. The low draw will help her to get to the front. She may enjoy an easy enough lead. She may hard to peg back over this course and distance if she finds a good rhythm.

10pts win – Sharon Macready @ 5/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Horses To Follow 2023: 3-year-old Handicappers

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First part of a series that tries to pick out a number of intriguing horses to follow for the new 2023 flat season.

The main focus is going to be on handicappers that may fly under the radar or offer significant upside, judged on their current BHA Official Rating.

Ana Emaraaty
3-yo gelding / Owen Burrows / Awtaad – Sundus

Very green on debut and sole start in August. Gelded in the meantime. Will be interesting once in Handicap company over 10 furlongs.

Looks likely to enjoy softish conditions, appears to have quite a high knee action. Dam’s offspring tends to perform best with cut in the ground, so does Awtaad’s offspring (3yo Handicappers).

Amleto
3-yo colt / William Haggas / Sea The Stars – Holy Moon

Green on debut, improved effort in strong Kempton race subsequently, travelled quite nicely. Big drifter in the betting on both occasions.

Full-brother to Sea Of Class. Retains a Derby entry but unlikely to turn out that good now. Nonetheless, bound to improve dramatically as 3-year-old compared to what he showed last season, especially if he goes up in trip.

Alhambra Palace
3-yo colt / William Haggas / Le Havre – Lady Francesca

Slowly into stride in both career runs. Bit unlucky on debut, but didn’t get hard ride after becoming short of room over 2f out in heavy going. Finished well under easy ride at Kempton.

Was a £58k foal, a year later sold for £230k as a yearling. Related to some good winners and has pedigree to do well on turf as well as All-Weather, most likely seen to best effect once up in trip as a half-brother to Northumberland Plate 4th place finisher.

As a son of Le Havre he will enjoy races with emphasis on stamina. Needs one more run to qualify for a handicap mark.

Barrier
3-yo filly / Andrew Balding / Australia – Pure Fantasy

Temperamental, had issues out of the gate on both career runs. Final 2022 performance can be upgraded when unlucky in the home straight.

One to keep an eye out for the opening mark, very much depends on final qualifying start. A mark in the 70’s or lower would be interesting as she steps up in trip. Will likely need plenty of cut in the ground for anything below longer trips.

Australia’s record with 3yo fillies is strong; generally with 3yo’s in lower grade handicaps on stiff tracks, with cut in the ground is noteworthy and ties in nicely with the overall profile of the filly.

Birchmore Len
3-yo gelding / Michael Madgwick / Sixties Icon – Steel Free

Showed absolutely nothing in three runs as a juvenile. Opening mark of 61 is harsh on that basis.

Will only show his true colours once hew moves significantly up in trip, most likely 12 furlongs. Full-brother to modest staying handicapper Steel An Icon. Trainer knows this family well having trained the dam and some offspring.

Chinthurst
3-yo gelding / Jim Boyle / Nathanial – Sonnetation

Improved markedly on Handicap debut at Brighton. Found himself multiple times outpaced but kept showing positive attitude as he finished well up the hill and achieved a 53 speed rating.

The performance warrants an upgrade, as the form has worked out well in the meantime, and he starts the season only a pound higher than that day, (OR 55) now as a gelding.

Even more so, as a son of Nathanial you can be almost certain he will improve as a 3-year-old and as he moves up in trip. Could be seriously well handicapped.

Dog Fox
3-yo gelding / Ed Dunlop / Cityscape – Dragonera

Showed nothing in three runs over trips that were clearly on the sharp side. Will improve for Handicaps and going up in trip. Majority of dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs.

There is also excellent All-Weather form in the pedigree. An opening mark of 63 looks stiff judged on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.

Elterwater
3-yo filly / D & C Kubler / Camelot – Acquainted

Showed signs of improvement on Handicap debut when last seen in October when also quite well backed. Travelled nicely but didn’t have pace to match in the closing stages over 7 furlongs.

Is a full-sister to a smart Aussie performer over 1m to 10f who improved nicely in her days as a 3yo. She looked quite big last year and is possibly one to be most interested in Spring.

Should improve as she moved up to a mile in Handicap company; 10 furlongs shouldn’t be an issue either. New seasons OR of 59 looks ready to be exploited.

Eyetrap
3-yo colt / Jane Chapple-Hyam / Ulysses – Miss Dashwood

Excellent run in third place on final run in 2022 behind very smart winner. Opening mark could be lenient judged on this final run if he moves up in trip.

Vast majority of dam’s offspring improved with age and trip, and stayed 10 furlongs plus.

Folk Star
3-yo filly / David Simcock / Le Havre – Full Opera

Two lovely runs of educational matter in October 2022. Looked much better than bare results. Never asked a question, finished nicely, especially at Yarmouth. Will need one more run to qualify for a mark.

May foal. Plenty of scope to improve, especially as she goes up in trip. A stiff mile could be ideal before moving up further. Beautifully bred, with plenty of stamina on dam side; the mare improved with time.

Le Have offspring improves with age. His 3yo’s have a 21% strike rate overall (A/E 1.2) in Handicaps. Especially potent over 1 mile to 10 furlongs from July on. Ideally stiff or galloping tracks not on a straight track.

Gold Aura
3-yo filly / Richard Hughes / Golden Horn – Lady Haidi

Showed promise in three starts as a juvenile over 7 furlongs. Looks bound to improve for a step up in trip as there is tons of stamina on sire and dam side. Could possibly enjoy the All-Weather, too.

Opening mark of 72 looks more than fair, given her solid juvenile form. Up in trip she could turn out to be well handicapped.

Golden Horn offspring tend to improve dramatically as they step up in trip. His record with fillies is strong.

Galilaeus
3-yo gelding / Ralph Beckett / Galileo – Madame Chiang

Unremarkable three runs as a juvenile on the surface of the form. Finished at the back of the field in the Eyetrap race. Badly outpaced but finished seriously well in the final furlong.

Cost 200k as a yearling and had a Derby entry. Gelded in the meantime. Clearly will need to go up in trip to show his best form. Opening mark could be quite lenient as he’s very well bred.

Lady Rascal
3-yo filly / George Boughey / Nathanial – Theladyinquestion

Solid debut and sole run as a juvenile over inadequate trip. Most likely won’t show true colours before she steps up significantly in trip. Full-sister to smart stayer Nate The Great.

Fetched £270k as a yearling back in 2021. Could be seriously underestimated by the handicapper once she had three qualifying runs.

Made seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton in 9.5f maiden. Encouraging effort without ever threatening.

Mudskipper
3-yo colt / David Menuisier / Le Havre – Arendelle

Ran incredibly well in two of three runs as a juvenile, both placed performances can be marked up and look possibly strong form, judged through the winners.

Will be interesting as he goes up in trip. By Le Havre out of a Camelot mare, 10 furlongs will suit really well. Opening mark not a giveaway but with improvement to come as a 3-year-old could have something in hand.

Tribal Master
3-yo gelding / Ralph Beckett / Mastercraftsman – Snoqualmie Star

Gelded before debut run, showed nothing in two starts last year, but 7f way too short. Is a full-brother to smart stayer Tribal Craft (and modest staying handicapper).

Should get a low enough opening mark post qualifying run that could be exploited once he moves up significantly in trip.

Betting

Monday Selections: 3rd April 2023

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It wasn’t the start I hoped for the new flat season: King’s Lynn badly squeezed early on, his race was basically done there and then. Didn’t get the clearest of runs until the race was over either… one to mark up and keep in the tracker.

Anyway, the flat kicks into gear properly this week. It’s going to be a few busy weeks and months ahead… But before that I’ve done the usual house keeping, and updated the P&L sheet for March here, including SPs now.

Always a bit easier to do this work if the month turned out to be a green one… can do with a few more of them, of course.

I’m heading to the sand for Monday’s selection, though. A familiar name is back there over her ideal course and distance….

……..

5.15 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Sir Rodneyredblood remains a strong chance even under a penalty, having shown tremendous form lately. I backed him myself when he won over the minimum trip at Chelmsford last month.

Nonetheless, he’s now rated very much in range of what requires best effort for him to overcome these days, in a hot race, with a wider than ideal draw and pace pressure likely to be applied.

Bobby On The beat and Porfin have fair shouts on their winter form, but Come On Girl is the one I’m most interested in, given it was back in January that she caught the eye in no uncertain terms.

That day she wasn’t advantaged by the way the race developed, yet she finished much the fastest in the home straight despite turning wider than ideal.

She followed up with another massive run, then over 7 furlongs, when only caught in the final half furlong, after doing too much too soon.

Subsequently out of her depth in class 4 when last seen, she’s now back in her ideal grade, class 6; 0-65, over 6 furlongs.

Pace looks guaranteed, her #4 draw gives Oisin Murphy in the saddle plenty of options; his booking seems a clear indicator that connections expect her to run well.

She was in fine form all winter, ran to 59 and 60 speed ratings during this All-Weather season and looks ripe for a 5th course and distance victory.

10pts win – Come On Girl @ 5/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 1st April 2023

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After a small break on a sunny island in the Atlantic Ocean I’m (nearly) back for the start of the flat season!

March was finally a green month again, having produced a 110pts profit; 4 winners and seven placed selections…. something positive at the end of a tough winter on the sand.

Thankfully, the grind of the All-Weather is over (well, probably not really, for another couple of weeks) and the grind of the flat beings here once again.

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3.00 Doncaster: Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes, 6f

Intriguing contest. A handful could have a proper go in this listed contest, but the ground should be key to narrow down the real contenders.

Current favourite Asjad definitely stays the trip and beyond in deep ground as shown in his last three fine runs in autumn 2022, including over this course and distance. He goes well fresh, but has failed to convince on speed ratings in 12 career runs so far.

El Caballo remains a sprinter with plenty of upside. If he’s ready from a long lay-off he should be the one to beat. A Grade 2 winner last May at Haydock, he wasn’t seen since Royal Ascot.

That’s a question mark, as well as the unknown whether he can show the same level of ability to show on deep ground.

Fast Response should enjoy the soft ground as he proved winning a Listed contest over this course and distance when last seen in November. Again he’s one who looks up against it on speed ratings – if the main principles fire.

Commanche Falls is pretty ground independent. He’s got a fine record fresh, and looks a key player if in the same form as last season; however, he’s yet to win outside Handicap company and his very best came on no less than good to soft.

Ehraz remains progressive and has been gelded during is off-season. He’d be seriously interesting on better ground. In soft conditions he may struggle, though, today.

Having said that, King’s Lynn is the one I’m siding with at given prices. He looks clearly overpriced, if fit on his seasonal reappearance.

The fact he ran quite well coming off a break in the past is promising. He’s the finished article by now, so if he can run to last seasons form, he should have a major say in the outcome of this race.

This is easier than his final assignment in 2022, when well beaten in the Champions Sprint. He competed predominantly in hot water last year, but was highly competitive in lesser grades, including when winning the Grade 2 Temple Stakes.

He runs consistently to a good level on speed ratings; his career-best effort over this Doncaster course and distance that came in the Listed Wentworth Stakes in November 2021 makes him a prime contender today, in theory.

Possibly the minimum trip is his optimum, but he obviously stays 6 furlongs, no bother, and loves soft ground. With that in mind he seems seriously overpriced at current exchange prices (8s readily available) although the scenario of a weak pace would count against him, truth told.

10pts win – King’s Lynn @ 8/1

Betting

All-Weather Thursday Selections: 16th March 2023

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6.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

I loved the return off 139 days from Saisons D’Or at Newcastle two weeks ago. He travelled well for a long time and seemed the one going best with less than 1.5 furlongs to go, ready to win the race. He fell away in the final furlong, though.

He ran to a good 59 speed rating, not too far off his current handicap mark. There is every reason to believe he can improve for the run. His spring form is usually really strong, he tends to run really well in the first two-three runs after a winter break.

Now an eight-year-old he isn’t getting any younger, but he’s fallen to a really good mark as he also has dropped into class 6.

This doesn’t look a strong race, hence I think the #7 draw may not be too much an issue to overcome. The yard tends to avoid this track with fancied runners at all, though. That’s a concern.

10pts win – Saisons D’Or @ 11.5/1

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8.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Plenty of unknowns here but one wo is most likely to improve significantly from his three starts as a juvenile is Get Stuck In.

He caught my eye in his final two runs last year; at Kempton and then Newmarket, he ran with tons of credit in pretty hot contests. What I loved most was the attitude he showed on those occasions.

Not only did he look straightforward enough, but also went forward, and tried really hard when challenged heavily in the closing stages.

Going up in trip to a mile can only be a positive, given his pedigree. He’s been gelded, which in itself may bring out additional improvement.

What gives me plenty of hope that this lad is ready to roll is the fact Mark/Charlie Johnston’s 4-year-olds have an excellent record on their reappearance off a break on the All-Weather.

Further to this, the pace in this race could be a muddy. But he likes to go forward, most likely, and could enjoy an uncontested lead. He may be hard to peg back.

10pts win – Get Stuck In @ 7/2

…….

8.20 Dundalk: 47-70 Handicap, 1m

Leabaland must be one of the unluckiest horses on Dundalk circuit given this winter. He’s often ran a lot better than bare form would read; one who definitely seems to find the trouble more often than not, has also been unfortunate with wide draws.

Each of his last five runs since he entered my radar in mid-October produced their own drama, and it wasn’t different when last seen in February over this course and distance as he just couldn’t get that the clear run, from entering the home straight until it was game over.

He looks clearly capable of his slightly revised mark of 60. Especially this time he enjoys a low draw, which will be a huge advantage. He’s a solid starter, and can just move forward, see how things fall, but in any case should be in a position to get a clear run this time.

There shouldn’t be any excuses this time. If he’s good enough this time is the day…. I think he’s good enough; added bonus having Seamie Heffernan in the saddle, who rode Leabaland to his last victory, ten month ago.

Hence I think these current prices are total bonkers. Of course, if things look too good to be true, often they aren’t true. We’ll find out tomorrow night.

10pts win – Leabaland @ 17/2

Betting

All-Weather Tuesday Selections: 14th March 2023

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Candy Warhol was seriously well backed on Monday, sadly she refused to settle and was keen for the majority of the race. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away.

Perhaps she needs some headgear. I wouldn’t lose hope quite yet and may be prepared to give her another chance next time.

All eyes will be on Cheltenham on Tuesday. I’ll settle in front of the TV with a good coffee and enjoy the races. But won’t be getting involved from a betting perspective.

Yes, I have a few fancies. But ultimately nothing strong enough to suggest it would be a good bet. My monetary interest will be riding on the Southwell Tapeta, instead.

…….

5.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

With a top amateur in the saddle Biplane looks ominous off a 62 mark. Judged on his very best effort over this C/D last summer he’s theoretically the one to beat. But he’s only ever ran once in 24 career runs to that level of form.

He will have to be a that level here, though, because I reckon the lightly raced Streetscape could have a few pounds in hand after a highly promising comeback- and first Handicap run last time out at Newcastle.

He moved forward to track the early pace until he started to challenge the leaders from over 2 furlongs out. He was gutsy right to the line but beaten by winner and second from the rear of the field in the end.

I thought he showed great attitude there, as he settled well early on and looked like trying seriously hard in the closing stages to keep the challengers at bay.

The race finished in a sprint, which can’t have been to his advantage, I believe, as he should stay a bit further on pedigree.

For now a mile should be fine. This is only going to be his 5th career-run and from his low draw I expect him to be a bit more aggressive this time to ensure it’s a solid gallop that will suit him.

The 3lb claim of Alice Keighley should be solid value. She usually sits on good chances, and posts a seriously strong record especially for this yard.

With that in mind, this lad should have a cracking chance and too much to offer of his rivals in this race.

10pts win – Streetscape @ 5/2

……

8.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Hot race. Autumn Angel has probably been leniently treated by the handicapper for her latest course and distance success. The issue I see: she will need a bit of luck and a clear run to catch those who inevitably will be any number of lengths in front as they turn for home.

Papa Cocktail is obviously of huge interest to me. A horse I am tracking since summer last year; he caught the eye once again in dramatic fashion last time; he’s almost certainly seriously well-handicapped. But I want him over 7 furlongs. He’s not one to trust and this shorter trip isn’t his best.

Putting any faith into a 15-race maiden may not be the wisest move. But Whiteandblue was a huge eyecatcher last time out as well, and I couldn’t be happier seeing her over 6 furlongs round a bend.

Last time at Newcastle she moved quickly forward and set a red hot pace – they went faster over the first half than the class 4 Handicap over 5 furlongs on the same card. She continued to lead until deep inside the final furlong but eventually was overwhelmed.

A huge run. And a career best speed rating – she had enough time to recover from the effort, and has been left untouched by the handicapper. The winner of that race went on to give the form a strong look having won subsequently again.

Since having changed yards her form has gradually improved and it looks like the penny may have dropped.

From the #6 draw she won’t have much trouble getting to the lead, or at least following it closely. Ireland’s Eye will move forward as well, most likely. I think this can only hep her to settle, having a bit of company early on.

Of course there is a chance that they go too hard once again. But I hope the turn will slow them down that little bit more than it was possibly at the straight Newcastle last time.

10pts win – Whiteandblue @ 6/1

Betting

All-Weather Monday Selections: 13th March 2023

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8.00 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

The race evolves around Letmelivemylife, who won at Chelmsford in a photo eleven days ago. He’s only 2lb higher and has a solid chance to add to his 100% course and distance record. He’s quite a short price, though. Too short? Probably fairly priced, more so.

In truth, there isn’t much to take him on with, in this field. But the one who does stand out is lightly raced Candy Warhol. He caught the eye at Southwell on his Handicap debut a fortnight ago.

Restrained from the widest draw, he travelled in rear. Unusual tactics, given he was up with the pace in most of his four career runs before. He made some good progress from over 3f out as the pace increased in a slowly run contest. But as he was kept in a pocket with little room to manoeuvre, no matter which way he turned; until it was too late, he never got a real chance.

It fair to assume that with a clear run he probably goes much closer in tat class 4 Handicap, to finish in an amongst to some higher rated rivals.

He ran noteworthy a number of times before as well. On his comeback run after 230 days off the track, he travelled strongly – too strongly early on – here at Wolverhampton. He was able to kick on from 3 furlongs out, but eventually faded. Perhaps he needed the run, but here is also the possibility that he doesn’t stay 9.5f.

He can be a bit keen early on and showed solid early speed over 7 furlongs prior, in 2022; especially his Chester run looks strong.

Therefore I feel the drop to 7 furlongs can suit. He has shown to have early pace and also cruising speed over that sort of trip. Especially as there is solid pace expected here, which he should be able to track, following the leader(s) closely, could be in his favour, as he may not want this to turn into a sprint.

He also drops into an easier race here – against this opposition his 74 handicap mark gives him a great opportunity, Any natural improvement will see him go close. With the race possibly set up to suit he looks certainly overpriced.

10pts win – Candy Warhol @ 11/2

………

I can’t ignore the elephant in the room: Cheltenham looms large. Tuesday we’re off to the week that defines each jumps racing season. Obviously I am more a flat man. Nonetheless, I still do enjoy the top class Championship races immensely. I am a racing fan, first and foremost.

Betting wise the festival has been largely kind to me over the last number of years. Although, I have greatly reduced my involvement. That resulted in a tremendous 5 winners from only 9 selections last year…. it’s probably unfair to expect the same this time. I’ll keep the purse largely closed this week….

Nonetheless, one bet that stands out to me, that I want to get off the chest right now, before the price invariably collapses on the day:

Galvin in the Cross-Country Chase on Wednesday!

This race has been a lucky one for me over the years. I firmly hope to pick the winner once again.

2/1 is easily obtainable right now. Which strikes me as overly generous. Gordon Elliot has hardly made a secret of how highly he rates Galvin’s chances here. He schooled him extensively over the Cross-Country fences.

And form wise – although it doesn’t always count for much in this division – Galvin is obviously the class act in this field. Last years Gold Cup 4th, would not look out of place in the “big one” on Friday, once again.

I backed Delta Work last year, and surely he’s going to be the main danger. Obviously, any rain will be to his advantage. But he’s probably not quite as classy – not these days – as stable mate Galvin.

The betting has it in the wrong order in my view. It’s not often that I do get involved in these short prices. It’s the absolute pain threshold for me. I simply think 2/1 is such tremendous value; no doubt, come Wednesday, he’ll be 6/4 and lower, possibly go off the favourite.

Betting

All-Weather Saturday Selections: 11th March 2023

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12.55 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Lady Nagin drops down to class 6 again after a seriously impressive effort at Southwell over 6 furlongs three weeks ago. She also tries the minimum trip for only the second time in her career on what will be her 2cond handicap run also.

When last seen she pulled her way to the front right before entering the bend and as a consequence wasted a lot of energy, as she never really settled properly, too.

Yet she showed a really impressive attitude in the home straight when heavily challenged as she only went down fighting late in the final furlong.

It’s hard to know where her ceiling is. She won two back a maiden over 6 furlongs at Southwell in really nice style from the front. Having showed plenty of early speed in her races, I doubt the minimum trip will pose any real issue.

from a low draw she should be able to move forward and track the likely front-runners closely in third or fourth place. They should go a good clip which may help her to settle better, and if they go too hard, she clearly has the stamina for further as well.

10pts win – Lady Nagin @ 7/1

……….

8.00 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Sir Rodneyredblood is a course and distance specialist with a 7-3-2 record who caught the eye last time out on his first run after a small break.

He showed excellent early speed, even though was also helped by a low draw, led the field for home by setting a strong pace in the 6 furlongs contest. He tried hard but eventually faded from 1f out.

Five or six furlongs doesn’t make too much of a difference to him, but the minimum trip at this track is clearly his preferred course and distance.

He drops ever so slightly in grade as he does in trip, and this will be easier. He has to overcome the #6 draw, though should be able to do so given the pace map for the race.

With that in mind, he could potentially dominate this contest from the front, which will be an advantage over this C & D. I have no doubt he will come on for the lto run and can bring his form back to the level shown in autumn.

The level of form he ran to then is at a different level to the majority of rivals in this field. He ran to solid speed ratings then, and was only a neck beaten off a 65 mark in a better race.

He obviously had a lot of racing under his belt but still shows enough enthusiasm and early speed to think off 62 against 0-60 opposition over his preferred course and distance he must be a huge runner.

Obviously, Proclivity and Mustaffiz have been eyecatchers in the past, too. There are both with a chance here, though, I have come to the conclusion that their limitations have been exposed off their current ratings.

10pts win – Sir Rodneyredblood @ 11/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 10th March 2023

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1.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

A really poor 0-52 Handicap of the lowest grade. This could be an excellent opportunity for veteran Dapper Man to enjoy a perfect race from the #1 draw.

He seemed to hit some good form lately, especially when last seen over the straight five at Southwell.

There he tracked the pace and the eventual winner early on, got outpaced halfway through, before he had to switch due to traffic problems. He got going again and ran on really well against the unfavourable stands’ side rail.

In my view he was far from disgraced in his last four runs since return to the All-Weather. That is backed up by speed ratings as he ran to 50 last time out and 52 four runs back, suggesting he is at a level that should give him a good chance in this field.

I feel he may enjoy the return to race around a bend over the minimum trip, especially this course and distance where has a 2-1-1 record.

From the #1 draw he should get to the lead without an issue, and has then the option to either go for it or taking the lead of the potential pace pressure that will have to do a lot from outside draws to get there, though.

10pts win – Dapper Man @ 9/2

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6.00 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

It’s interesting that Gobi Sunset drops back in trip to 6 furlongs. Even though possibly more thought of as a 7 furlongs specialist, two of his three career wins came over this trip for a 7-2-2 record.

Gobi Sunset’s career-best speed rating also was achieved over 6 furlongs on the All-Weather. So the drop in trip is as intriguing as it makes sense.

He will find this class easier as well. There is a chance that 0-95 and 0-85 level is a little bit too hot form him. Nonetheless, he ran with a lot of credit in the three runs since returning from a 260 day break.

He only tired late after attempting to make all on his reappearance at Wolverhampton, and I was really impressed how easily he finished last time out, posting the fastest final furlong split.

The inexperienced 7lb claimer is a question mark. On the other hand, Archie Young looked pretty solid in the sole ride he had recently.

The low draw suits to move forward if reverted back to attacking tactics. He was perhaps a little slow away, but not helped by a rival either, and perhaps it was also somewhat by design, when restrained in rear last time out.

There is plenty of pace here. I feel this can suit. If this is a test of stamina his extra bit of 7 furlongs stamina will be an asset late in the race.

10pts win – Gobi Sunset @ 7/1

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8.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

I loved Eastern Star’s gutsy performance at this venue last week. The idiosyncrasies of the British handicapping system have her race off 2lb lower here over a better trip, despite finishing a fine runner-up.

Last week she grabbed the lead and set seriously hot pace early on. As a consequence she had the field on the stretch, still going well turning for home. From 2 furlongs out she came severely under pressure but it was impressive how she pulled out more and fought back gamely.

A mile clearly stretches her. She also hasn’t won on the All-Weather or 7 furlongs yet in her long career, but I think she stays 7 furlongs, and has two placed efforts from two tries over this course and distance, including her career-best speed rating of 56, which came exactly 12 days ago to this day in exactly the same type of race over this C&D.

Her most recent effort clearly shows she is in serious form as well. Having the opportunity to race off 46 this one time, 2lb lower than lto, and where her mark is going back to again after this, in a very winnable contest, she looks to have a prime chance for a first victory on the sand.

10pts win – Eastern Star @ 9/2

Betting

All-Weather Thursday Selections: 9th March 2023

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1.15 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

It was an odd race and even odder ride Primo’s Comet received at Newcastle last month when last seen. It also was quite impressive how the veteran gelding finished his race there.

He was restrained early on, seemingly impeded around 4f out as pace wasn’t rapid and it got tight amongst those held up. He switched eventually to get a run against the inside rail but didn’t find space until late, while the jockey in the saddle wasn’t all that bothered, it seemed.

In any case, the way the 8-year-old finished suggests he must be hitting some serious form. That comprises with his rapidly falling handicap mark.

Nonetheless, he still managed to run to 61 and 63 speed rating in October and November, therefore looks handicapped to go close on that evidence alone, now rated 63.

He’s got a favourable low draw here and should enjoy the chaotic and frantic pace to be expected in this race to be delivered in the closing stages for a turn of foot.

10pts win – Primo’s Comet @ 11/2

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7.45 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

The wider than ideal #9 draw is a concern, but that aside there’s an awful lot to like about Fanzone here in a winnable contest.

This is going to be his second run after a break. That most recent comeback run nine days ago was seriously eye catching, suggesting the 6-year-old gelding is in fine form and very much ready to win.

Nine days ago he wasn’t quite the sharpest out of a wider than ideal draw and looked a bit keen, as he settled in midfield. He travelled really well for a long time but had to wait to be angled out to the stands’ side rail for a clear run.

Once in the clear he found plenty for pressure. In fact he finished fastest for the last two furlongs.

It was an excellent comeback run after 188 days off. He also caught the eye a number of times last year on the flat.

Yet, racing off a career lowest mark he makes a lot of appeal as he drops in grade as well, into 0-55 level, with in-form Oisin Murphy in the saddle.

10pts win – Fanzone @ 7/1