Tag Archives: 2018

Betting

Thursday Selections: August, 16th 2018

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

3.20 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 6f

Open contest and relatively competitive for this class. I’m siding with top weight Folies Bergeres as the filly looks well handicapped judged by her early season All-Weather form.

The trip is a question mark. She didn’t always give the impression to be crying out for a marathon, neither is her pedigree conclusive. On the other hand, her best form came in April in a decent class 5 Kempton Handicap over 1m 4f when she finished a fine 3rd and ran all the way to the line.

This race as well has her previous run at Kempton in March give her a big chance today if she can reproduce that sort of form now down to a handicap mark off 62. She hasn’t fired on turf at all in three subsequent starts, so the return to the sand needs to spark a revival.

That is obviously reflected in the price. But given she ran so well on the All-Weather before, has dropped to a handy mark and has the assistance of a good 5lb claiming apprentice, I rate her a better chance here.

Selection:
10pts win – Folies Bergeres @ 10/1 PP

Betting

Sunday Selections: August, 12th 2018

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4.35 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

As the only three year old from, bottom weight Jeopardy John looks ready to outrun his price tag as she continues to drop ever so slightly in his handicap mark but also drops down to class 5 again and tackles the minimum trip for the first time.

An unusual below par performance the last time at Brighton aside, Jeopardy John has been pretty consistent without getting his head in front yet. Particularly his two fine front-running performances two back as well as on his turf debut in April looks strong pieces of form that should be good enough to have a big shout today if repeated.

He seemed to struggle to get home over further than the minimum trip so far, though. Hence dropping to 5f should suit.

Selection:
10pts win – Jeopardy John @ 9/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: August, 9th 2018

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2.50 Yarmouth + 4.00 Brighton:

An unusual multiple bet for me, but individually it’s too short to play, combined I nice chance to succeed at tasty odds.

Lightly raced Black Lotus in the Yarmouth Handicap was an excellent winner lto at Haydock. The form works out well already and the filly showed clear ability to be quite a bit better than her rating as she was winning cozily in the end and still ran to a TSR of 66. Her revised mark shouldn’t be enough to stop her.

A similar situation for Affina to some extend. She ran really well over a mile at Doncaster when runner-up recently. That form looks strong. She ran to a TSR of 78 that day, so on her revised mark has not too much to improve which is likely for this lightly raced filly as she steps up to a much more suitable 10f trip. It’s Tom Marquand only ride on the day – a tip in itself.

Selection:
10pts win – Black Lotus + Affina @ 3.75/1 Sky

……..

4.30 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Yet to win on turf, Sir Jamie came close only one day ago at this very same venue over 7f. He was only beaten when a well handicapped 3-year old came storming home from the back off the field.

This three times AW winner steps up to a mile today, which is his preferred trip. He can race off the same mark and judged on his performance yesterday has a strong chance. He also ran to TSR or 51 yesterday. This additional furlong may unlock a bit more for this still progressive 5-year old gelding.

It’s an easier race too, as he drops down to class 6. He’ll bottle the start as he always does but that’s not a problem as he can settle at the back and in should get a clear run in this small field.

Selection:
10pts win – Sir Jamie @ 9/2 PP

Betting

Monday Selections: August, 6th 2018

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8.30 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Handicap debutant United Kingdom is a tremendous chance in the lucky last tonight I feel. Granted these sprint handicaps at Windsor require a bit of luck from time to time, this mate will make his own luck.

He’s a full-brother to a filly Baciami Piccola, a French 5f listed placed and subsequent Group 3 winner in the US. United Kingdom had a late start as a juvenile but looked promising in his second outing at Kempton over 6f. Pulling hard, he led briefly in the closing stages until swept by from those off the pace.

His reappearance a few weeks ago at Leicester in a hot Novice Stakes continued to look promising. He shot out off the gate and led the field until 2f swept by now 83 and 85 rated individuals. He was clearly saved for handicaps in the closing stages as well.

Dropping down to 5f which should suit given the early speed has shown in the past, an opening mark of 65 looks generous. There is every chance he is better than that and a good break pretty much guaranteed should ensure he doesn’t run into trouble today.

Selection:
10pts win – United Kingdom @ 5/1 Sky

Betting

Saturday Selections: August, 4th 2018

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3.25 Thirsk: Class 3 Handicap, 1 mile

A big field that screams competitiveness. However, judged purely by TS ratings, there are very few in it who appear to be well handicapped, actually. Most of these older horses are capable of running to some sort of form close to their current rating – but better than that?

Usually this isn’t my cup of tea, a race like this, neither the horse I fancy – particularly at a price as short as it is. Nonetheless there is still a bit of juice in the price of Richard Fahey’s Borodin, I feel.

For a start: he’s the only 3 year old in the race thanks to WFA racing off bottom weight while his actual rating should see him rather toward the top third of the weights. This is going to be his handicap debut and there is an obvious question mark in first place whether Borodin is as good as a lofty 86 handicap mark.

The answer is emphatically “yes” judged by the form of his last two starts that also came here at Thirsk. He appeared to be still pretty green on both occasions, which makes sense as it was only lifetime start two and three.

He disposed an experienced runner-up over 7f on his second outing easily. This runner-up – Kawasir – was subsequently a good deal beaten but not disgraced when finishing within 6 lengths of an individual that’s now rated 95.

Borodin then stepped up to a mile. Still quite green and keen to get on with things he was swept by late by a promising horse in New Show who ran well in a hot class 2 Handicap subsequently. Also the third,  History Writer, 2¼ behind Borodin, won a decent Sandown Handicap on his next start racing off 85.

In summary: judged by this form, an opening mark of 86 doesn’t look harsh. In fact, if Borodin has learned from his three starts he should improve quite a bit and can be a few pounds better than that.

The fact that he has been here at Thirsk before and ran well, also is one who is likely be up with the pace, which is an advantage at this track, means this rather smallish gelding shouldn’t be too intimidated by the big field. That says he’ll need a good break from a less than ideal draw in 10.

Selection:
10pts win – Borodin @ 11/2 Sky

Betting

Friday Selections: August, 3rd 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Three on the bounce! What rare joy to find a winner on three consecutive days – Land Force (7/2) clearly stayed the trip as hoped and won the Richmond Stakes in commanding style under a class ride by Ryan Moore.

……

5.50 Newmarket: Class 5 Handicap, 12f

It was a disappointing handicap debut for Floria Tosca the other day after she showed a bit of promise in three maiden starts. I was keen on her the last time as I thought that judged by her second start at Chelmsford she could be well treated off her opening mark. That form worked out incredibly well and her subsequent performance at Bath looked more than decent too.

A fortnight ago the race then didn’t quite worked out the way as hoped. They were crawling for most parts, Floria Tosca was left flat footed over 4f out but then made quite a bit of stylish progress to lead briefly over 2f out. She didn’t see it out eventually and that becomes a bit of a habit now, which is a concern.

Hopefully it is more greenness than anything else. She is bred for the job so upped to 12f may suit. There should be a fair pace on the cards today and it is very winnable race. Dropped 3lb to a mark off 70 plus interesting young apprentice Marco Ghiani in the saddle who claims another 7lb means the filly must enter calculations here.

Selection:
10pts win – Floria Tosca @ 11/1 PP

Betting

Thursday Selections: August, 2nd 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

He’s finally done it! Lightning Spear after more than two handful of attempts finally broke through the barrier to land a Group 1! And how he did it – beautifully timed and produced with patience and poise by Osisin Murphy, the seven year old colt stormed to success in the Sussex Stakes. A great price he was all the same (selection @ 12.5/1)!

……….

3.00 Goodwood: Group 1 Richmond Stakes, 6f

Ballydoyle isn’t going quite as strong as one would usually see this time of the year. There were issues in the yard reportedly. Nonetheless Land Force looks a supreme candidate to land the Richmond Stakes today.

He’s been a February foal so no surprise to see him having quite a bit of racing already in his legs as he also appears to be a good looking and imposing individual. He took the step up to graded class in his stride when finishing a strong 3rd in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. Arguably a race he wasn’t advantaged due to his positioning toward the stand side for most parts of the race.

He finished very strongly, indicating a step up to 6f will be beneficial. He remained over the minimum trip next time out in a Listed contest at Tipperary. Not the strongest of contests, but he only needed to be pushed under under hands and heels to win cozily.

Today’s test looks ideal for this speedy individual. The additional furlong won’t be a problem, neither is the ground.

Selection:
10pts win – Land Force @ 7/2 PP

Betting

Saturday Selections: July, 28th 2018

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4.55 Chester: Class 4 Handicap, 10.5f

A wide open affair and I feel handicap debutant King Tut has shown enough in three maidens to suggest he could improve for this trip and the switch to turf.

You got to bank on his fitness, however, he he ran well on his seasonal reappearance back in March at Lingfield over a mile, travelling notably well until tiring toward the end without getting a hard time.

An opening mark of 73 looks entirely fair, but given the quite excellent record Animal Kingdom has with three year old’s in Britain so far plus the valuable assistance of 3lb claimer Adam McNamara, King Tut could be better than this initial rating.

Selection:
10pts win – King Tut @ 15/2 Sky

Betting

Thursday Selections: July, 26th 2018

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8.50 Newbury: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Bottom weight He’s Our Star can go back to back today, after a rather impressive maiden win in a class 5 Handicap against his own age four weeks ago at this very venue.

He seemed slightly flat footed early on as the pace was strong – that’s the major concern dropping down to 7f today – but found himself with a wall of horses to pass in the home straight.

Once with  bit of daylight the three year old gelding jump for it, producing a nice turn of foot to win a shade cozily on the line, despite the close winning margin.

He’s only gone up 3lb for this success, while the form has been franked multiple times in the meantime. He also raced to a TS rating of 67 that day, which equals his new mark.

With a low weight today and a potentially underestimation of his true merit by the handicapper, He’s Our Star should have a cracking chance to follow-up on this recent success today, as long he isn’t completely taken off his feat by slightly shorter trip.

Selection:
10pts win – He’s Our Star @ 5/1 PP

Betting

Saturday Selections: July, 21st 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

2.25 Newbury: Class 2 Handicap, 16.5f

Bottom weight Almoghared drops down into this right from an excellent performance in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot – form that has been franked by the superb winner subsequently.

Almoghared didn’t have a chance but until the final furlong marker was still right in the game. He probably isn’t quite up to that standard and doesn’t look a fast horse. So the step up to this marathon trip on handicap debut looks a good move.

The jury is out, however. His maiden win at Chepstow is worth nothing, though he was incredibly green that day and today marks only his fourth career start. Given Almoghared is superbly well bred there is every chance he can pull out more against older horses now, leveraging a handy WFA allowance.

Selection:
10pts win – Almoghared @ 6/1 PP

…….

5.50 Ripon: Class 5 Maiden Handicap, 6f

Cobalty Isle must have a cracking chance if he can find back to anything close of his best form. He’s dropped dramatically in the mark after a string of bad performances, though noteworthy he was an excellent 4th in a red hot Wolverhampton Handicap back in March of a 9lb higher mark than today.

He showed promise as as a juvenile, ran to a TS rating of 61 on debut and poses a top RPR of 78. He must go close here with conditions to suit.

That is if there isn’t anything totally wrong with him. Cheek-pieces and tongue tie applied the last time are a concern. The same headgear is on today. Nonetheless at given prices he is a cracking value bet in my book – if he can find back some form.

Selection:
10pts win – Cobalty Isle @ 16/1 VC

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6.30 Haydock: Novice Stakes, 7f

Line Of Duty is the obvious one here, but he is a super short price. Also an expensive yearling is Massam, though, who equally was not quite the luckiest one as Line Of Duty was on their respective debuts.

Massam showed allot of greenness at Chelmsford earlier this month after getting tied up in a battle for the early speed right after the start. He didn’t get the clearest of runs turning for home either and was hanging toward the far rail in the home straight too.

He should have learned plenty that day and has allot of scope to improve dramatically for that experience. Whether he is quite good enough to be beat the favourite remains to be seen.

Selection:
10pts win – Massam @ 6/1 MB

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7.30 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 10f

Things have slowed down a bit for excellent apprentice Ger O’Neill but it looks significant that he has this one ride today on veteran Save The Bees who has dropped to a tasty mark after a rather poor campaign this year so far.

However, down to a mark of 72, with conditions to suit and a visor r-fitted to sharpen him up, Save The Bees looks dangerous if he can find a bit of form. The 5lb claimed by O’Neill are worth every single pound, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the ten year old gelding in the shake up tonight.

Selection:
10pts win – Save The Bees @ 14/1 PP

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7.45 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Competitive race where a case can be made for pretty much all of these. I feel Ralf Beckett’s gelding Raskolnikov is overpriced, though on the back of one poor effort when he had excuses last time.

Judged by his first two career starts at Bath beforehand, on the other hand, his form does not look too different from what the market leaders have achieved to date.

This son of Excelebration has nicely improved from a physical point of view since his debut and his fourth and fifth place finishes in April and May where quite good form given how those races have worked out since then.

An opening mark of 67 could underestimate his true merit now stepping up to more suitable 6f also.

Selection:
10pts win – Raskolnikov @ 6/1 PP

………

8.30 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Sitar hasn’t been firing in a light campaign to date, however she drops to a dangerous mark 3lb lower than her last winning mark. Conditions are unlikely to pose an issue, despite her two career wins achieved with a bit of cut in the ground.

She has the assistance of red hot Ben Curtis and offers much better value than odds-on favourite Boundary Lane.

Selection:
10pts win – Sitar @ 6/1 PP