Sydney Bay caught the eye on his return from a break and wind op at this track over 6 furlongs last month.
He travelled off the pace on the outside off the pack, not getting the best of cover there. He seemed outpaced in this grade over this trip 3 furlongs out but also didn’t find the clearest passage before strolling home in eyecatching fashion in the final furlong.
That form looks rock solid and if he can improve for the run with his breathing fine, he should be here on Monday a big runner, for various reasons.
The 5-year-old gelding drops significantly in grade, down to 0-55 class, a race also restricted to horses without a win since the 2023 flat turf season. This is a poor contest, the fact a now 48 rated 10-year-old is one of fancied horses, says it all.
Sydney Bay is much more home on this lowly level, obviously. Saying that, down to a mark of 53, with the excellent help of 5lb claimer William Pyle, he’s probably quite well-handicapped here, if he stays the stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle.
He won off 49 and 51 over 6 furlongs at this venue last October, and did well out of the weights off effectively 56 as a runner-up subsequently and achieved 51 and 52 speed ratings in those winning runs.
Moving up to 7 furlongs should suit, in theory. Ever since this horse came to my attention about two years ago, I thought he’d be much better if he moves to 7f, and possibly further. That hasn’t materialised, in reality, but he stayed on strongly over 6f at this stiff track, has the breeding and tried 6f+ outside maiden company only twice in his career.
Amaysmont and Crocodile Power look solid rivals in this field and both may also enjoy the run of the race toward the stands rail. I hope Sydney Bay will be ridden a bit more forward, though, tracking the pace a couple, as he showed in the past he’s suited to that (31/10/23, career-best performance).
A race of this nature looks highly competitive but the ground will only allow a select few to get involved. I wouldn’t fancy a horse on a seasonal return here at all, and rather am looking for race fitness coupled with form on this ground.
With that in mind, I can’t look past Glorious Angel, the 4-year-old filly, who put up a huge performance earlier this week at Pontefract as a runner-up.
It’s tough going back to back in such short space of time, but sprinters can recover quicker, and the Tuer yard is in superb form also.
At Pontefract she had to overcome the widest and as a consequence had to do more in the early part of the race than the eventual winner. She was gutsy all the way to the line, though.
Her two runs prior this year were also noteworthy. She did way too much in a hot Listed contest at Doncaster last month over 6f, and prior on her seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton over 7f, she was still ahead with just over a furlong to go, before running out of fuel.
This Bath test on heavy ground over the minimum trip, may be the absolute ideal scenario to add a 6th career win to her CV.
Even though her win record wouldn’t quite tell the story, Glorious Angel’s career best performances all came over 5 furlongs in deep ground. She stays further, which can be of benefit, given there should be plenty of pace here.
That in itself will be of benefit, given the filly can be keen early on. Her low weight and the assistance of solid 5lb claiming apprentice Joe Leavy can only be of benefit in these conditions.
From a handicap perspective, she is certainly rated to go close, judged on last Octobers career-best effort over 5f in heavy ground at Doncaster, where she finished a gallant 2nd, off 87, achieving an 86 speed rating.
Down to 84, with the 5lb claim, in conditions she enjoys, certainly race fit, hopefully recovered well enough from Tuesday, she’s a massive runner here and I still find value in the current price.
I’m inclined to give ultra-consistent veteran Reverberation a big chance in this race, despite the overall openness of the contest.
He’s one of the few uncomplicated horses in the field, and also highly likely to enjoy the run of the race from a prominent racing position.
That could be crucial today: not too many want to go forward. Some of the contenders are prone to miss the break. Hence, the #11 draw may not be a big deal, as Reverberation is a solid starter and should be able to have an uninterrupted way toward the front of the pack.
Off his current mark he’s handicapped to go well, no doubt. He bumped into a highly progressive winner last time, but ran in line with those performances he showed all winter that suggested he’s got possibly another win in him off 56, in the right circumstances.
The form of his two wins at Chelmsford over a mile and 10 furlongs back in December and January worked out quite well too, ensuring his credentials have real substance.
The 5lb claim of red-hot Joe Leavy should come in handy. He seems a good judge of pace and ridden Reverberation last time as well.
The main danger I thought could be top-weight Lucidity. The light-raced filly could have too much class in this grade, if ready to go on her seasonal reappearance. But the market suggests otherwise, for the now at least, and she’s one to keep an eye on for another day.
Favourite Mc’Ted comes here in good form. He likes this course and distance but he’s handicapped to he’s best form under a 5lb now. Given he can be moody at the start, it’s a risky proposition.
Twilight Guest sees money all morning and is competitive in this grade. 0-17 tells a story, though, and he tends to be seriously keen if the pace is slow.
That always brings me back to Reverberation. The fact he drops ever so slightly down in grade, with a good pace scenario of a fair mark gives him a good chance to score today.
Flat Eyecatchers is a list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on turf and sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.
Porfin 19/03/24 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:
Quickly forward from the #8 draw to get to the lead upon entering the first turn. Set fast pace and always kept honest over a trip that stretches his stamina.
Has excuses for some of the last runs, either over too far or not quite an ideal run off marks possible close to what his truly is these days.
Will be highly competitive down to 6f in a race with good draw and suitable pace scenario in 0-55 class.
Sydney Bay 22/03/24 – 7.15 Newcastle:
Travelled off the pace and to the most part not well covered up. Appeared one-paced as the tempo picked up from 3f out. Although not quite the clearest of runs, had to switch and was tenderly handled after he found second wind from over 1f out for a brief moment.
Good return run from a wind operation. The run should put him spot on and give the horse confidence in his breathing, given how well he finished.
He’ll be down to a fair mark, especially if he drops back into 0-55. Ran a huge race off 56 in November and achieved solid speed ratings the two times prior when he went back to back wins.
Lilkian 22/03/24 – 3.45 Lingfield:
Stormed forward from wider than ideal draw. Did a lot in the early part and caught wide when locked in a battle for the lead. All the way going head to head in front and did well to stay up there for a long time.
Clearly hitting some form again, and additional help from handicapper can be expected. Loves it at Lingfield and Kempton over 6f.
Astral Beau 23/03/24 Doncaster – 1.20 Doncaster:
Led near side group. Quite keen in the first few furlongs. Did well to stay in front for as long as she did, always in the wind, whereas the winner was always nicely covered up. Ran home for solid second.
Had not often her preferred deep ground last year, but clearly best in proper soft conditions. Stays a mile, but perhaps a stiff 7f on deep ground is ideal.
Yet to run a really impressive speed rating given her Official Rating, but then she didn’t have too many opportunities in the right conditions. Hence one to keep an eye out, she should be capable to do so.
Went left and bumped rival at the start. Quickly established a lead on the far side, made more than any other rival in the first two furlongs and had his head always right in the wind. Came under pressure 3f out and was a long way beaten, though did well to run home for 3rd.
Won Listed race when last seen in 2023. Gelded in the meantime. Two 90+ speed ratings achieved last season suggest he’s a proper horse and may be able to with some natural improvement for age see him develop into Group class.
Intriguing that blinkers were left off. Improvement came with it ever since first applied. If they are refitted, over a mile (also goes well over 7f) with some juice in the ground (best form good to soft), he’s one to back.
Harswell Duke + Lion Tower 23/03/24 – 2.25 Doncaster:
The two pace setter in the Spring Mile faded quite badly from two furlongs out but they were all the way through in the wind, especially Harswell Duke had to take most of it.
He won this race last year and has been in poor form ever since, although his September run at Southwell showed there is still something there. He’s not up to this level, but dropped to 72 now, he can race off a seriously nice mark wherever he goes next over a mile on proper soft ground.
Lion Tower has also fallen a long way in the mark. The handicapper has been a little less lenient, perhaps because he ran so well on his return at Newcastle back in February.
He’s got no chance to get home over a mile on soft ground. He’s not been expected in the betting in a while, too. Hence that February run is noteworthy. If he can find some decent ground, perhaps ideally over 7 furlongs, he’ll be dangerous soon.
One Night Thunder 23/03/24 – 3.35 Doncaster:
Quickly moved forward to lead the near side running right into the wind. Travelled quick well to 3f out when he kicked on and was in the mix until fading slowly from 2f out. Strong run in the circumstances.
Probably not quite good enough for this grade or his current mark, but will get help from handicapper, can move into lower grades and remains an intriguing type with low mileage and only 4 handicaps under his belt. Was an expensive £300k yearling.
Hasn’t fulfilled the promise yet but ran well as 3yo a couple of times suggesting he can win despite not having shown it on the clock yet. He had too few opportunities to properly shine. The dam did well as a 4-year old too. He may not mind a drop to 7f in soft conditions.
Parisiac 24/04/23 – 3.05 Doncaster:
Awkward start, cost early momentum but he quickly got into stride and marched forward to set fast pace locked in a pace battle. Did well to run well enough for long and showed nice attitude deep into the final furlong.
Was outclassed here. 5f with juice in the ground or 6f on practically any ground can work. Probably a flatter track for the 6f, something stiffer will see him to best effect over the minimum trip.
A consistent front-runner in the right grade. Ran 75 and 71 speed ratings last year and worth to wait for drop to class 5. Any help from the handicapper is a bonus.
The other early pace in this race, Blind Beggar is also one to note if he drops in class and mark in the next weeks.
Stressfree 24/04/24 – 3.40 Doncaster:
Travelled off the pace seriously well, going strongly approaching two furlongs out but had too much to do behind a winner who was seriously well handicapped and enjoyed the run of the race. Only over 2f out asked for full effort and the pace wasn’t overly hot.
Warrants an upgrade as he travelled and finished like a well-handicapped horse, and handicapper can’t be too harsh for a 1.5l defeat. Can be ridden further forward too.
Smart Family. Dam’s 5/9 offspring are stakes placed. Probably won’t enjoy fast ground. Best performance in this family with juice in the ground.
Birkenhead 25/04/24 – 7.30 Newcastle:
Set a decent gallop having to come somewhat across from the #2 draw. Kicked on and stayed inf nearly to the end. Only 1/4l beaten in the end. Super run. Clearly back in form.
Remains to be seen what the handicapper does. I’d be most interested see him on turf if he can find a dry day with fast ground, as unlikely that seems for the moment, worth to wait for.
A similar lowly race on the sand where the pace scenario is advantageous isn’t out of question, ideally not Newcastle.
Mums Tipple 27/04/24 – 7.00 Kempton:
Travelled in rear and not advantaged by that due to a slow pace. Eyecatching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest as well.
Strong run given the winner was much better positioned. Pulled hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior and was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held.
He’s not done much on speed ratings for a while but I’d be intrigued to see him over 6 or 7f in a Listed event especially. He must be in serious form and should revert to more prominent tactics too.
Super Hit 28/03/24 – 7.30 Southwell:
Quickly forward, keen as he tracked the eventual leader. Was going alright and kicked on in the home straight. Hung badly 2f out but stuck gamely to the task and only beaten with half a furlong out.
Ran strong 69 speed rating but unlikely handicapper can be harsh for this run. Clearly has capabilities to be better than 71, nicely bred and improvement should come for stepping up to a mile, although 7f fine too, for now.
He needs to settle better and hopefully with experience this lightly raced colt can learn.
Berry Clever 28/03/24 – 7.30 Southwell:
Hampered soon after the start and couldn’t move closer to the pace as a result. Travelled well into the straight and made initially strong progress against the dreaded inside rail.
Tired from 1.5f out. Somewhat ‘unlucky’ in a couple of his runs as a juvenile. Should be capable of winning a race off his current mark. Interesting if he moves up to a mile as his breeding suggest more’s to come then. Ideally he could drop slightly in class to 0-65.
Digital 28/03/24 – 8.00 Southwell:
Moved keenly forward from the widest draw. Set a good pace that contributed to some good speed figures achieved in the race. Showed good attitude before getting really tired.
First run after a break and for a new yard. Ran to 71 and 70 speed ratings last season. Best over 5f. Good record on AW but also acts on turf and good record in the summer months.
Should get more help from handicapper and if he can drop into 0-75 with not much pace to compete could be too classy.
Eight Army + Old Chums 29/03/24 – 2.50 Chelmsford:
Widest draw and awkward away. Soon recovered and rushed forward. Lead as part of duo setting a seemingly rapid pace. Wasn’t able to keep it up. Seasonal reappearance.
Probably strong form, quite competitive race for this class. Ran well in hot races as a juvenile last autumn. Those races worked out rather well in the meantime.
Should be able to step up in trip and improve given his pedigree. Handicapper may drop him sufficiently and if he moves up into an easier race he’ll be of real interest.
Fellow pace setter Old Chums also stormed forward and it was impressive that he was able to keep going to finish second behind a well-handicapped winner.
He’s got experience and may reach his peak soon, but I feel there’s another win in him off his current mark in this grade over 6f but also may be able to stretch out to 7f. The dam won a Listed race over a mile and was highly prolific on both turf and the sand.
Magical Vision 30/03/24 – 4.40 Cork:
Travelled keenly in midfield early on, going well but stuck in a pocket behind the leaders and only inside the furlong got out. Looked bit awkward too but finished well.
Probably quite strong form. She was well backed too. Still low mileage. Ran some good ratings last year. A stiff finish brings out the best in her especially on soft ground.
Yosemite Valley 30/03/24 – 3.30 Cork:
Travelled quite well but was a bit in a pocket 1.5f out that meant at the most crucial stage he had to ever so slightly delay his run and get galvanized again for full effort. He finished strongly on his seasonal reappearance.
Career-best on speed ratings. Had some assignments last year but shaped with plenty of promise. Hang the race away on his final outing over 7f but he should be able to get home over that trip. Interesting on better ground too and should be able to win a Listed race.
Cavalier Approach 31/03/24 – 5.35 Southwell:
Part of the early pace before setting in third tracking closely. The pace was red hot and he was inevitably to fade but made strong headway from 3f out.
Excellent reappearance. Strong run when last seen at Newmarket, better than bare result. And excellent Hamilton win before. Maybe doesn’t like it quite heavy if he returns to turf. Loves stiff finishes.
If he could get some additional help from the handicapper he’ll be interesting in 0-70. Yet to fully convince on speed ratings but ran an 80 RPR at Hamilton. Usually quite consistent and up with the pace.
There isn’t much substance in this field beyond the short-priced favourite. Bustaam looks progressive and may defy a 10lb higher mark for an easy victory at Doncaster.
On the other hand he hasn’t achieved a good speed rating on turf (yet) in four runs and is prone to miss the kick, not ideal at Pontefract, especially in a possibly slowly run race.
Top-weight Lord Melbourne makes some appeal on his handicap debut, though. Back to the venue where he was seen to best effect last year.
It was a career-best performance here at Pontefract when runner-up behind a subsequent listed winner. He handled softish ground just fine and was simply outstayed over 12 furlongs. However he showed a nice change of gear from 4 furlongs out.
He cost a bit of money as a yearling and is quite well bred, naturally then. Gelded just before his debut run, though, he seems a somewhat tricky character, as the application of cheek-pieces showed in his final runs in 2023.
Head gear is off today, a question mark, but you hope with natural improvement he could be better than his opening mark of 77, given the CP’s didn’t do anything for him.
There is certainly enough substance in his performances, if you strike out his penultimate run at Wolverhampton when injured during the race.
He travelled quite well when last seen at Wolverhampton in December, but was short of room at a crucial stage around the home bend and then didn’t see out the trip, I believe.
A return to turf should be a positive. His two runs where his best, so far, including the aforementioned Ponti run. 10 furlongs could prove an ideal trip, judged by his runs over 1m 4f where he travelled nicely, was also able to change gear but didn’t get home.
The heavy ground is a question mark. He handled good to soft and on pedigree there is plenty of soft ground form, which gives hope. He comes into this 0-75 race as a 77 rated individual. If he can put it all together the gelding could prove way too classy, especially if he gets it easy in front.
This is Harry Davies’ only ride today, and he goes well for this yard, which does well when it sends horses to the front. I hope that’s the game plan today with not much other pace to compete with.
The 4-year-old seems on the drift this morning in the betting. That’s a risk. But I hope he’s not just here for a public workout.
It was amazing to cheer home Stag Night at Cork on Saturday. A second winner for the month, for the season, for the year… small sample size, but 30pts up moving into April, I’ll take that.
……
5.00 Fairyhouse: Irish Grand National, 3m 5f
Lightly raced and progressive Nick Rockett appears to be a rock solid favourite. Able to run off 146 he could easily be a good deal better than this current handicapper assessment.
He impressed in his three starts over fences this year in hot enough company. Only five lengths behind Corbetts Cross in December, and an excellent runner- up behind American Mike in February when he stepped up to 3 miles under rules for the first time.
Trained by Willie Mullins, one has to take that into account, but the price is skinny enough. There are reasons to take this 7-year old on: evidently he isn’t the biggest horse and with that in mind a 21-runner big National is a new experience.
An uncompetitive maiden hurdle at Naas isn’t quite the same as the Irish Grand National, especially as there should be a lot of action toward the front of the pack today.
Going 3m 5f is a first, too. Nick Rockett won a Point to Point over 3 miles, that gives hope but doesn’t provide a guarantee, especially if the race is fast on this heavy ground.
There are two I’m interested in against this favourite: one is stable mate We’llhavewan, who’s also surprisingly low mileage over fences and potentially on a really good mark compared to his hurdles rating.
He ran a fine race when second in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown, when effectively 5lb wrong due to being out the handicap and Townend weighing in over.
I thought it was impressive how he surged from over 4 furlongs out, making a big bold move after jumping the second last and seemed briefly to have a lead that’ll last for a win. That big move cost him dearly in the end, though, as he was reeled in an finished a tired 2nd.
He hasn’t been seen often jumping a fence since winning on his chasing debut in summer 2022, but had excuses afterwards. His jumping was pretty assured at Punchestown, though.
We’llhavewan had a light campaign, won well over hurdles and looks favourably weighted here at the bottom of the field with valuable 5lb claimed by Kieran Callaghan. Whether he’ll truly stays the trip we’ll find out later.
The other one I’m interested in is Favori De Champdou. He’s a decent hurdler but already looks a better chase, and no surprise given his connections.
He’s low mileage for a 9-year-old and was quite impressive when he won the Florida Pearl at Punchestown early in the season. He bombed out the last two and requires a bit of faith that he’s back to the previous form.
Still, only 4 runs over fences, there’s possibly more to come. This is the game he’s been bought for. If you can forgive him those last two runs, he looks like an exciting Novice Chaser.
Conditions should suit and he had a small break. A return to a right-handed track can also suit. He ran to a 151 RPR at Punchestown, if he can get back to that form and show any improvement, he’ll be right in the mix off 145.
Richard Hannon has his string in strong order, hence returning Major Major makes some appeal, if he’s ready to go in a weak enough race that could fall into his lap.
There shouldn’t be too much pace on, so he could either move forward and make all, or follow closely whoever else is doing the donkey work for him.
The 4-year-old gelding improved nicely over these longer trips last season and his last two performances warranted an upgrade in competitive Handicaps.
He’s unexposed on the All-Weather and could improve for this surface given his breeding and family on the dam side all done well on the sand. His final start in 2023 at Lingfield’s polytrack was eyecatching, and if he can translate this form to tapeta he’ll be a strong chance today.
A mark off 68 could underestimate him. Certainly in conditions and pace likely in his favour today, with excellent 5lb claiming Alec Voikhansky in the saddle.
He achieved a 65 speed rating on turf last season. He should be able to run to this level, perhaps even better on All-Weather too. He looks a good win ahead of his mark.
Super run by Misty Grey yesterday in the competitive All-Weather Sprint Handicap at Newcastle. He finished a gallant 2nd.
Ultimately beaten beaten by a stronger winner from off the pace. Nonetheless, a huge run given his 16/1 price and can’t ask for more.
Unfortunately Shoot To Kill missed the break and had a mountain to climb there and then – too much, but most likely he wouldn’t have had a chance with the impressive Cephalus in any case. Tempus run as the price suggested, sadly. Tracked the pace but wasn’t good enough on the day.
…….
4.40 Cork: Handicap, 5f
I have been weighing up all last night and this morning whether to get involved in this race. It’s competitive. Unexposed Goal Exceeded is potentially the “x-factor”, hard to gauge but possibly well-handicapped.
Two Stars and Stag Night meet once again after they locked horns a fortnight ago and also at the Curragh in their respective final runs last season.
Two Stars the likely pace angle in the race, this is where the pace will develop. That’s a positive for Stag Night, but also lightly raced Goal Exceeded.
I’m questioning whether this is the right trip for Goal Exceeded, though. Perhaps an additional furlong is much more likely to see him to best effect, for that he could be well-handicapped today on Handicap debut.
Nonetheless, as a 3-year-old against some seasoned sprinters, on deep ground, appears quite a stiff task, and with that in mind I find his price too short.
Two Stars remains quite unexposed, too, and has shown excellent early speed in all his runs since a slow start in his debut run. He ran to 82 on speed ratings in his final race last year at the Curragh. The handicapper has been lenient to leave his mark untouched after that as well as the recent third placed effort.
He’s an obvious chance today, but quite a short price, and may face some competition for the pace as well.
This his is competitive and the likes of NeverShout Never, mud lover Mickey The Steel, dangerously well-handicap Mehman or the mare Magical Vision can’t be ruled out.
What gets me always back to Stag Night is the fact this should turn today into a a testing enough 5 furlongs, with a couple in the field likely to keep Two Stars honest up front, which will be a huge help to his chances.
Stag night is still low mileage for a 6-year-old, he had issues with his feet, reportedly. Nonetheless, last season in his final two runs on deep ground over 5- and 6f he was able to produce significantly improvement performances.
An 84 speed rating for his Naas win, bettered by a 91 speed rating when a super 3rd in a tight finish at the Curragh. He clearly was well when he returned at the Curragh earlier this months too, as he looked good in the parade ring where I saw him prior to the race in flesh.
He ran really well and “won” the race on his side, but couldn’t live with the turn of foot of the eventual winner, who made a move away from the pace, though, and was possibly seen too late as well.
Stag Night is up a pound for the run, but intriguingly has the assistance of young apprentice Danny Power, who claims invaluable 10lbs. This is only his second ride under rules.
The young apprentice looked quite comfortable on his sole ride at Dundalk, though. I think this weight allowance can only be a help for Stag Night in the deep ground. He is an uncomplicated sort. Just ride him, push him out, and given he only has to follow the lead of Two Stars, who’s drawn right beside, this shouldn’t be too tricky.
Given the price has gone to a point where I feel comfortable to get involved in this competitive race, I’ll have the bet on Stag Night. Ideally he’d go up to 6 furlongs, I feel. But at around 5/1 now he’s more than a point bigger than I’d have him.
It’s already a few days ago, but hey, you’ve got to celebrate the winners. It was the first one I could cheer home in a while – granted I had about a handful of bets in the last half year.
Anyway, it was great to see Qitaal win rather comfortably in the end, despite a dramatic drift to 14/1 SP. I was stuck with my 7’s, but that’s no issue at all. Even that represented significant value in my book.
Cephalus looks a seriously poor favourite in this race at such a short price (2/1 at time of writing). He’ll be held up from the #10 draw in a race without much pace and he’s got a bit to find on speed ratings as he’s turned out under a penalty.
The 5-year old improved dramatically over the last weeks and months, winning four and going close twice. This is a different proposition, though, especially off 81 in a race that won’t be run to suit him.
The way the race is likely going to shape, and with his love for the track, Shoot To Kill looks one who may steel this one from the front for Ireland and represents serious value in my mind.
He moved over to Ado McGuinness in early March and ran with plenty of courage in two subsequent starts, both times catching the eye and clearly proving there’s plenty of life in the seven-year-old gelding.
Those were hard races and that’s a bit of a concern. But at the same they may have put him right for this race. He was highly competitive and consistent prior moving to Ireland as well.
Shoot To Kill certainly loves it here at Lingfield. Check out his course record, peel back the first layer and you’ll find a lad who’s ran some huge performances from 7-10 furlongs at this venue not too long ago.
No doubt, his optimum is a mile over this course and distance, though. He won a class 5 Handicap over this CD back in September off 74, running to a 75 speed rating which he franked weeks later over 7 furlongs at the same venue when finishing a strong third.
That mile win looks better than bare form would suggest, given it was only a class 5. His current mark – 78 – with a 3lb claimer in the saddle, gives him a shout over this course and distance, though.
He won a class 3 Handicaps in the past here, and ran his three career-best speed ratings at Lingfield, the two highest over a mile. Taking into account that he looks to hit some good form, it’s not impossible to think he’s able to run to that sort of level again.
But maybe he doesn’t even have to be that good on Friday. The pace should favour those who are ridden forward and it’s unlikely to be overly hot.
Given that, Shoot To Kill should be easily able to overcome the #7 draw and should find himself in prime position as he slings around the final bend.
Shoot To Kill 10pts win – @ 13/1
……..
3.35 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 6f
Not out of question that Cover Up, who’s bidding for a four-timer, can pull out more, even after a hefty 13lb hike for his most recent win at this venue, albeit over the minimum trip.
Though, moving up in trip is a question mark. The dam stayed a mile but her sole victory came over 5 furlongs. He ran a super 90 speed rating last time out. On balance, given he could get a nice lead into the finish as well given his draw and the likely pace, he’s a fair favourite – one that’s beatable, at the same time.
Batal Dubai looks well places from his #9 draw and given there isn’t too much pace competition, could enjoy the run of the race. He’s fairly handicapped, although hardly has much in hand. He always struggled so far to win once he hit the 90s.
Albasheer’s last two winning performances here at Newcastle were brilliant on speed ratings: 102 and 100 – that’s a Group horse. A 110 mark in this type of competitive handicap is also quite a steep task.
He looks well drawn and looks slightly overpriced. I have some question marks because that last huge effort only came a fortnight ago.
The one I feel who’s potentially quite well-handicapped in the context of this race is 7-year-old gelding Misty Grey.
The #5 draw gives him enough options to get a good, prominent position early on, tracking the pace, wherever it develops, given he has a bit of early speed as well.
He clearly showed a return to form in two runs earlier this month after he moved to the David O’Meara yard. The second of those runs came on the 9th of March, hence that hopefully is enough time to recover.
I felt both runs were eyecatching and warranted a slight upgrade, as much as they also suggested a mark off 96 might underestimate him at this point in his career.
At Wolverhampton in a 7f Listed race last time out Misty Grey had to give weight away to higher rated horses and it wasn’t ideal to concede first run to the eventual winner at 2f out, at the most crucial part of that race.
Days earlier at Newcastle, again over 7f, he pulled hard early on and basically tanked his way to the front. He travelled sweetly for a long time before coming under pressure and possibly also got ever so slightly impacted by a faller around the final furlong marker.
Both runs suggested he could do with a drop to stiff 6f…. hello Newcastle I hear you calling? This is his third run since a break and since moving to the David O’Meara yard and he should be primed what will only bis his second run over 6f in over a year – the last time he finished an excellent third in a hot Kempton Conditions race.
The grey gelding wasn’t rated so lowly in over three years, and as explained before, there is solid evidence based on the last two runs, that he’s hitting some strong form. At given prices he seems quite a bit overpriced.
Misty Grey – 10pts win @ 16/1
……..
4.40 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 1m
It’s difficult not to like how Dear My Friend won his last three races since his return as a gelding and from wind operation. A changed horse, so to speak.
Four from four on the All-Weather now, and there s every chance he’s got still much more to offer. For all that he has to prove his lofty rating on speed ratings yet.
He may not have to do so here, as the pace falls right into his lap, if he wants it. He’s also a pretty fair price, at 7/2 currently, very much one I’d consider to back.
However, from a value perspective I just can’t look past Tempus. He’s not getting any younger and was beaten by My Dear Friend back in January. However the race and certainly pace scenario will play out differently this time, and so is the weights difference between the two.
Tempus is also drawn close to My Dear Friend, and may well track him all the way from his #2 draw. Usually also forward, he should equally enjoy the run of the race.
The handicapper has given him an opportunity as well. Dropped him to 102, despite three notable performances this year. He’s not been that low since winning a competitive Ascot Handicap in July 2022.
There is no question that Tempus remains in strong form, though, because he ran a joint career-best (and best on AW) speed rating at Kempton in January on his comeback run. He missed the break that day but finished very strongly as he kicked on nicely from 3f out in a good listed contest.
He fared best from those up with the pace subsequently at Newcastle when he was beaten by My Dear Friend eventually. Another strong performance. And was then a bit too keen when locked in a pace battle in a Listed race at Cagnes last month, where he was still ahead with only 1.5f to go, though.
I feel from a handicapping perspective and pace scenario Tempus got a significant chance to outrun his big price tag here.
If you’re a racing fan it’s a mission impossible to escape the doom and gloom narrative that’s currently surrounding the sport.
An ever growing list of daily news and opinion pieces are questioning the future of the sport. Wearing blinkers or a hood may not be a sufficient avoidance strategy. Because right now everyone wants to have their say on all the things that (seemingly) go wrong in racing:
The 2024 Cheltenham Festival seemed to be a tipping point. Equine performances took a backseat; first overshadowed by negative chatter in the racing bubble (nothing new, it’s always doom and gloom) before it found its way – worryingly – to feature prominently in mainstream media as well.
Steep decline in ticket sales and lower attendance figures. Flat atmosphere. Boring races. Poor customer experience – That’s what made the headlines throughout the week of Jump Racing’s “Olympics”.
Even ITV, a (welcome) cheerleader for racing, that usually sees the world through Ed Chamberlin’s rose tinted glasses, couldn’t avoid the negative narrative that was shaping the week:
"The numbers don't lie…It's a reflection of everything we've seen over the last 5-10 years" 💬 @RishiPersad1
In truth, all this represents only the rotten cherry sitting on top of the spoiled cake that racing fans get served every day of the week.
Racing as a sport, most prominently jumps racing – but make no mistake, the flat has its own serious issues – finds itself well and truly in the midst of a seemingly unsolvable (?) polycrisis.
It’s not really about that one famous week in March in isolation. In fact, there are blindingly obvious reasons for what’s happening here – jumps racing’s flagship event simply magnifies the situation:
1. Racing isn’t that popular in an increasingly urban society these days.
2. Competition creates excitement: but the sport itself isn’t as competitive as it used to be.
3. It’s a seriously expensive day out.
All three aspects fit perfectly to everything we have heard and seen a couple of weeks ago at Cheltenham. However, they also fit the wider situation racing finds itself in. Which is not to say there aren’t ways to rectify some of the issues. There is!
Let’s expand on these points a bit and bring in a bit of personal experience as well. Especially on the first point. Even though, shifting social and cultural norms aren’t something entirely under the control of the sport, in fairness.
Racing’s popularity in the urban society
I work in a diverse environment and talk to people from all over the world on a daily basis. I also love talking racing and will tell people about it whenever they give me an inch.
The vast majority of all the different people I meet are – at best – ambivalent if it comes to racing. Some will call out the animal welfare aspect, a select few will question whether it’s appropriate to “beat horses with a whip for human profit”, while a small minority will actually have any engaging interest.
Make the test yourself: ask a selection of random friends or colleagues what they know and think about horse racing (I bet only a few are going to mention the whip – it’s a non-issue for most people).
Yet, you’ll find out that most people lack the most basic understanding about horse racing. More often than not, the lay person wouldn’t even know that the thoroughbred is a different breed to the horse they’ll see lurking over the wooden fence on the side of a country road.
The majority of modern, urban society neither has- nor ever had any touchpoints with horse racing. And why would they?
They’ve never given a reason to care about the sport and likely never will…. no matter the current number of permitted strokes with the whip or whoever the headline music act is that lines up after the racing on a Saturday evening card at Windsor.
Let’s not kid ourselves – even if the following notion sounds overly nihilistic: we live in a modern, urban society where racing won’t gain any significant mainstream relevance ever again. The horse has bolted, so to speak.
Does it mean the overall downward trajectory can’t be at least halted? I’d say it can, at least to an extend. Which leads to the other two points, as clear and obvious they seem.
Lack of competition devalues the product
There have been way too many articles written about customer experience, costs of going racing and the racing product itself – at least in the context of the recent Cheltenham Festival.
What I will add and want to emphasise: racing absolutely needs big clashes. The heavyweights of the sport must race each other – they’re the ones who can give the media, and in extension a wider public, a reason to be intrigued by what’s happening on the actual racetrack.
I’ll touch on the “care about what?” aspect later on again – for now, let’s call out the obvious: if genuine racing fans struggle to get excited about the racing product on offer, why should anyone outside the bubble waste any thought about it?
That leads to the final point, which in a sense is intrinsically linked to the quality of the racing product: the costs of going racing. It doesn’t make the product automatically exciting just because you merely insist you’re offering a premium product and this in itself warrants premium prices, IF the product that markets itself as premium doesn’t actually deliver a premium experience on AND off the track.
As convoluted as that may sound, Cheltenham is a prime example for this notion. Mind, it’s not the only place where it holds true. Admission to a large number of British racetracks is expensive as well. And not all of them can be classified as “premium venues”, let alone hosting “premium events”, by any means.
Food and drink doesn’t turn magically “premium” just because it costs racegoers an arm and a leg to buy a portion of chips fried in cheap vegetable oil and a run of the mill lager. Neither does it have to be “premium”. But decent value for money, that’s what it must be.
Let’s be honest: more often than not going racing is an expensive day out. And that’s even without having a single bet.
Tie that back to the actual sport on offer. If the racing isn’t good, because the best avoid each other or the field sizes are small, then the decline in attendance and interest in the sport is an entirely self-inflicted result. Because those in charge of the sport have it in their hands to make meaningful changes.
There’s an audience for Racing
Even if attendance figures were down at Cheltenham (and continue to fall across the sport, while multiple racetracks have closed worldwide also), clearly there remains an audience for the sport – certainly on these shores.
Thousands are still flocking to the bigger meetings and the smaller race tracks alike. There is a vibrant, engaged and real fan base: genuine racing fans.
That’s the kicker for me: instead of trying – in vain – to appease and attract an audience that will never be captured by the magic of racing, “the sport” – regardless of jurisdiction – needs to make every effort to create the best possible racing product AND experience to engage its core audience.
Okay, it’s not that simple. Nothing ever is. Nonetheless, the key ingredients for a better racing product remain rather simple. It starts with great sport.
And continues with fair pricing for entrance, food and drinks. Let’s make a day out at the racecourse an attractive experience. In contrast: ripping off people, putting greed first? That’s what alienates fans.
Don’t stop there: more data, better data, reliable data. Help fans engage with the sport in a deeper way. Drive innovative media coverage through smart use of technology. Racing can feel pretty “old” and certainly isn’t at the forefront of driving innovation in sports coverage.
There’re opportunities aplenty: drones, helmet cameras…. you name it. Racing is such a visually exciting sport. Help TV and media operators to transport the spectacle in a spectacular way.
A more engaging atmosphere can also be created at the racetrack through technology. Let’s be honest, not much is happening between races. Technology can help create a richer atmosphere here as well.
The sport itself needs to be at the forefront of any marketing effort. You want people to care about the stories the racing produces. You want people to engage with the sport for the sport itself – not for the reasons of drinking and partying in a large open air venue with the half-hourly disruption of a bunch of horses running in circles.
Because that’s the exact opposite to creating meaningful fan engagement with the sport. Of course, that must include the betting side as well. Nobody can deny the fact these two are intrinsically linked, even if not for everyone. An attractive racing product makes for an attractive betting product as well, though.
Fan Engagement key to long-term viability
Julie Harrington did seem to grasp this aspect in her now infamous statement when she touched on the “need to grow our fanbase by encouraging new fans and retaining existing fans”.
Yet, these platitudes aren’t anything new. We heard them before. And we’ll likely hear them again. Tangible action is needed. Urgently.
In my view (and it’s only an opinion, perhaps a wrong one): before the BHA tries (in vain) to miraculously gain any new fans, how about creating a better experience for existing fans first?
Imagine: fans in love with the sport who are also in love with their personal experience of their beloved sport, are the best marketing tool there is: they’ll tell other people. They share experiences, photos, videos and stories on social media.
They’re ambassadors for racing. Because fundamentally, humans who are passionate about something, always want to share this passion with other people.
On the flip side, most likely they’re as likely and passionate about telling other people how disappointed they are with the trajectory of their beloved pastime right now. This has a ripple effect, one way or the other.
Let’s make racing great again
Let’s conclude and bring this all back to a more positive outlook. There are obvious ways to improve the experience for racing fans (and punters).
Nothing comes cheap, and nothing will change magically overnight. But there are core themes that will create positive impact, if tackled and not left to linger for much longer.
Obviously, this is very much with British racing in mind. On the other hand, racing is struggling in many countries that are not Japan or Hong Kong (plenty to learn from their playbook, though).
A revamped racing program: deliver regular clashes of the best horses and healthy field sizes. That’s creates excitement and betting opportunities for punters (if they can get on; that’s a topic for another day).
Value for money: a day at the races must be affordable, inviting and providing an engaging experience.
Enhanced experience through technology: bring racing into the 21st century. Drive stronger engagement with the sport through data, use of new technologies and exciting multi-media coverage.
Although this may sound overly simplistic, ultimately, it boils down to one question – one that racing authorities need to find answers for ASAP. This question encapsulates everything mentioned beforehand:
“Mr Professor off 92 could be dangerous. He’ll love this ground and the likely fast pace. He’s one of the bigger prices that Intrigues me.”
It’s what I wrote in my Lincoln preview and still didn’t back him, as Mr Professor ran away with the Lincoln at Doncaster.
My selection Blues Emperor was up with the pace but wasn’t advantaged by the direction of the wind, I think. He finished down the field. Think he remains one to keep any eye on.
I can live with it. It was a big price, I’d back him again at those odds, no doubt. I’m more annoyed with myself with those two seriously poor Friday selections. Anyway, move on, and let’s find a winner today….
………
3.40 Doncaster: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f
Intriguing contest because there is very little obvious pace in this race and because the betting is doing some funny things throughout this morning.
Last years winner of this very same race, Bucephalus, is one who can track a pace, and comes here in good form, off only 5lb higher than for that comfortable win twelve months ago.
Despite a prominent mentioning from Hugh Taylor, I don’t like him from a speed rating perspective and I am happy to go against him.
I feel those close to the top of the market are nothing more than fairly priced. Stressfree is unexposed and loves this ground and trip. He could be well placed, but has to prove he can do it in this class. Speed ratings leave a lot to be desired, for now.
Ensued ran well on the All-Weather since his return from Hong Kong. His speed rating suggest he’s normally not up to this class and an 80 mark is stiff enough.
The “x-factor” in this race clearly is Qitaal. He was badly on the drift this morning, but has been backed in again. Hence I jumped on board because he’s possibly the only runner in the field truly comfortable to lead.
The 5-year-old is also talented, seriously lightly raced for his age, and on a dangerous 77 handicap mark IF healthy.
He did well for Mark Johnston as a juvenile and fetched £220k at the horses in training sale back then. Things didn’t work out in Ireland where was seen only once in Listed class for Ken Condon.
Gelded since then, not seen ever since, now back with the Johnston’s in their ownership as well, it’s intriguing to see what Qitaal can do. It’s not unusual for Johnston horses setting the pace – no better man on board today than Joe Fanning too.
I’m sure they revert to front-running tactics as he did when landing a decent maiden at Nottingham, back in October 2021.
He has shown to handle soft ground as a 2-year-old. If ready to go, and the money suggests he is, I think there is every chance he’s way too well-handicapped in this field, especially if allowed a soft lead.
There’s every chance he’s never going to be horse he promised to be years ago, also. I’ll take the gamble today, given this race looks so open, especially at the price (seems like loads of money coming quickly, not sure how long the 6-7s hold) where the pace could be seriously muddy, this feels like a no-brainer to me.
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