Category Archives: Betting

Betting

Saturday Selection: September, 15th 2018

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5.10 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 1M 5F 66Y

A risky shout out for long-shot Global Style here. He’s yet to win a race and didn’t exactly come close yet. However, he has a few half-decent performances to his name; most importantly his latest Windsor run.

That was a better race than this here today, he was pretty keen in first time blinkers and didn’t get the breaks when needed with a wall of horses in front, hampered slightly over 3f out and a bit more severely in the closing stages. Yet he galloped all the way to the line and wasn’t far beaten.

He doesn’t exactly cries out for a stamina test, but with first time tongue tie and the added benefit of the pedigree there is a fair chance he can last the 1M 5F 66Y trip today.

He’s only slowly coming down in the mark. It remains to be seen whether he can win off 71. But against lesser rivals there is a fair chance I reckon. Robert Havlin on board with a super record for Ed Dunlop in this type of races. Worth a nibble.

Selection:
10pts win – Global Style @ 22/1 PP

Betting

Big Race Preview: St. Leger 2018

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A wide open St. Leger – I’m saying that despite the betting telling a different story. It’s a foolish price for John Gosden’s clearly exciting filly Lah Ti Dar. But so exciting to believe 7/4 is the right price? Surely not. Not for a filly that, albeit totally unexposed, has yet to run to a time speed rating of 100 or more.

She may well be the one to beat here, she may well be proving her class and stamina today – at this incredibly short price I rather look elsewhere.

I have not to look far. My eyes set firmly on what Aiden O’Brien brings to the table. And that is so much more than Kew Gardens. He’s clearly a classy individual. He should enjoy the Leger trip. But can he improve again? Does he even have to? Probably not. He’s setting the standard here, in my mind.

But he’s well exposed. We know what we get. And that may or may not be good enough. At given prices it’s nothing more than fair. And the fact team Ballydoyle brings a handful of runners here doesn’t scream confidence in Kew Gardens.

Two other runners have caught my eye. Not for the first time this is The Pentagon. A promising juvenile last year, he also showed continued promise earlier this year; I quite liked his 3rd placed finish in the Derrinstown Derby Trial and subsequently saw him as a fair each-way chance in the Derby.

He was a long way beaten that day eventually, though that run was better than the bare form may suggest. He’s been beaten in the Irish Derby and the Great Voltiger subsequently – but both runs showed there is some class. Particularly his Curragh performance, where he made a lot of ground from the back of the field is interesting.

Stepping up in trip could suit. The Pentagon has no turn of foot, he’s more of a grinder, I feel. That may well suit the Leger and he can outran his big price tag.

So can be stable mate Southern France. Less exposed and a huge individual in physical presence, his return from a small break in the Irish St. Leger Trial last month was hugely promising.

He clearly wasn’t well placed trailing the field and had a lot of ground to make up in the home straight. Which he did pretty easily. He wasn’t beaten up to finish closer to those in front of him who also either set the pace or rode close to it for most parts of the race. It was a lovely prep for the big one, I feel.

Selections:
5pts Win – The Pentagon @ 26/1 MB
5pts Win – Southern France @ 17/1 MB

Betting

Monday Selection: September, 10th 2018

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5.45 Chelmsford: Class 4 Novice Stakes, 7f

Open looking contest. On paper there seems little between Balladeer, Just Later and Rockshore, who is in my eyes the most interesting of the trio, hence Balladeer certainly a wrong price.

But it’s Miss Green Dream who catches my eye with Harry Bentley in the saddle. The filly showed promise in two starts over shorter. Particularly the most recent run looks strong form on paper. She was minded in both starts also.

Stepping up in trip is surely what this filly needs judged by how she was outpaced in her two previous starts and on pedigree. The switch to the sand is interesting and may help her combined with the new trip to improve significantly, having the added bonus of a good draw.

Bentley and trainer Williams have an excellent record together this season. Particularly with two-year old’s. It’s possible that this race is only another stepping stone to when she’s going handicapping. But all the evidence mentioned above suggests she’s got as good a chance as the rest in the field at a much bigger price.

Selection:
10pts win – Miss Green Dream @ 10/1 Sky

Betting

Saturday Selections: September, 7th 2018

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Leicester Racecourse home straight

4.15 Haydock: Group 1 Sprint Cup, 6f

Hard to argue against red hot favourite Harry Angel…. if he’s top fit and back to his best. That’s a big if. He’s coming back from an injury here and can easily get fired up. With ground not ideal, I feel he is vulnerable.

That says, he’s the defending champion and won this race last year in similar conditions when quite a few things were staked against him. So he’s the one they all have to beat. What I’m saying is: Harry Angel is beatable here. Certainly at short odds not one to play for me.

Plenty of better options given the odds available here. I’m siding with Jim Crowley’s mount Eqtidaar. An excellent winner of the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot when getting home with a bit to spare despite hanging badly in the final furlong, he looks certainly overpriced here being harshly judged by one poor subsequent outing.

He was comprehensively beaten in the July Cup, so clearly needs to bounce back. But given he showed fine form in his two seasonal starts prior to Royal Ascot could mean Eqtidaar simply had a bad day in the office.

round conditions will be totally different to Ascot. In saying that he has shown to act with cut in the ground. A winner on good to soft and runner-up in the Group 3 Pavilion in Stakes on genuinely soft ground on his seasonal reappearance make me think Eqtidaar is going to be fine.

The draw may not be totally ideal as it may favour those wider drawn given how the race could pan out in these conditions, it’s also where the pace looks like to be. At 28/1 that’s a risk worth taking.

Selection:
10pts win – Eqtidaar @ 26/1 PP/MB

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4.50 Haydock: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

Largely consistent top weight Gracious John hasn’t been good in his most recent race but showed multiple times this year already that he is still very competitive in this class and off this type of mark.

He’s been running to higher TS ratings than his current mark in the past and achieved twice this year alone a 93 and 95 TS rating, suggesting he’s as good as ever. Returning to sharp 5f and most importantly with cut in the ground will be a big help for this course and distance winner.

Gracious John has a 40% strike rate in 5f Handicaps, won already two times this year, including a 5f Handicap of a mark off 98 in good to soft conditions. For one who can go forward his draw looks perfect also.

Selection:
10pts win – Gracious John @ 15/2 PP

Betting

Sunday Selection: September, 2nd 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

4.00 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Lightening Dance and Double Reflection come into this in excellent form. Form that looks solid, also on the clock. So this is an ultra competitive fillies’ handicap, despite only a small field.

The one I feel that’s potentially underestimated is Last Enchantment. She won a shade cozily a 1m contest at Nottingham in May of a mark off 72, running to a RS rating of 75. She hasn’t been disgraced in higher grade and longer trips subsequently, so her last run in July was quite a surprising  disappointment.

She has a wind surgery since then and also dropped a couple of pounds in the mark to a sexy looking 73 – if the wind op does the trick for the Camelot filly.

Last Enchantment is bred for this trip and shouldn’t mind the ground either. Interestingly jockey Charles Bishop has generally a fine record if having only one mount on a given day, but it increased dramatically if that ride is at Brighton.

Selection:
10pts win – Last Enchantment @ 4/1 WH

Betting

Saturday Selection: September, 1st 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

1.50 Sandown: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

New trainer and only his third run this year, Global Applause has plenty to prove today. Particularly as he has top weight to shoulder as well.

On the other hand, he drops in class into a race that may well be as competitive in nature as most of the others he ran in the past but arguably an easier one. Down to a mark of 97 it remains to be seen if he is up to it these days.

On past form, having run to a career highest time speed rating of 98 and 90+ on more occasions, Global Applause has surely got a fine chance. He was a smart juvenile, lightly raced as a three year old and certainly no disgraced when a less than two lengths beaten 5th in a red hot Doncaster Handicap of a mark off 98 in his final run in 2017.

This year has seen him back to form on his seasonal reappearance when runner-up at Newbury, though it is his most recent run at that very same venue back in May that has left big questions to answer.

Drop in class, drop in trip and back at Sandown with a bit of juice in the ground is hopefully enough to see Global Applause find back to his best.

Selection:
10pts win – Global Applause @ 11/1 MB

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Betting

Friday Selections: August, 31st 2018

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4.25 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Leigh’s Law won a shade cozily on handicap debut a fortnight ago. Making all from the front, he ran his rivals into the ground and was able to pull out more and more when the tough questions were asked.

The travelled really well in what was described as good to soft ground, so today’s conditions shouldn’t pose a problem.

A 3lb hike in the mark is fair enough. Here’s hoping the small step up in trip help Leigh’s Law, as he seemed t keep galloping strongly in the closing stages. Natural improvement on what will only be his fifth career start could see him overcoming this task.

Selection:
10pts win – Leigh’s Law @ 14/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selection: August, 29th 2018

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5.00 Catterick: Class  5 Handicap, 6f

It was a narrow margin on the line last month when Indian Pursuit won over course and distance. The five year old is a true course specialist and has won off higher marks here in the past. Most notably his final win in 2017, over CD of a mark off 65.

He’s been running to time speed ratings a good deal higher than his now revised mark off 62 in the past also. So in theory the 3lb raise for the latest success may not stop him yet.

It was a much more commanding win than the winning margin says, in my mind. First time visor fitted seemed to help as he crossed over from a wide draw and went to lead by a frantic pace by a couple of lengths for most parts and only inside the final furlong he tired.

Same conditions today, the wide draw, as we have seen, isn’t a problem. Indian Pursuit looks in with a big shout once more.

Selection:
10pts win – Indian Pursuit @ 13/2 MB

 

Betting

Sunday Selections: August, 26th 2018

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3.15 Beverley: Class 3 Nursery, 5f

The short priced favourite is a foolish price in this rather competitive nursery in my mind. Most importantly, that leaves my selection Snazzy seemingly undervalued in the market.

This filly won – arguably a not overly strong race, granted – very impressively on debut earlier this year at Newcastle overcoming all sorts of trouble. Subsequently placed in Listed company, she was found out for class stepping up to Group 2 class at Royal Ascot.

But, despite not coming too close to win, Snazzy ran extremely well in defeat in two subsequent starts when things didn’t quite went her way in highly competitive events that have worked out well form wise in the meantime.

A drop to the minimum trip should work in her favour and with first time visor applied from a good draw I would expect her to go forward here.

Selection:
10pts win – Snazzy @ 10/3 PP

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4.25 Beverley: Class 4 Handicap, 8.5f 

I was keen on Ghazan on handicap debut back in May after the colt showed plenty of promise in three juvenile starts, particularly the final run in 2017 looked excellent form.

From a wide draw he had a lot to do at Leicester on what was his seasonal reappearance and always travelling wide as a consequence didn’t make it an easy task. After coming briefly off the bridle over 4f out a shake of the reign saw Ghazan travelling notably strongest of all until nearly 2f out when he then tired and wasn’t given a hard time.

That form has worked out quite well in the meantime, so the fact Ghazan was able to travell all over that sort of field is encouraging as I felt beforehand he might have been underestimated by an opening 75 mark.

He’s on 74 today, drops a bit in trip. That in combination with the rain arriving should suit him well. Hanagan is in the saddle, a bonus. Question remains why the absence since May. If he’s fit and well then Ghazan should have a big chance today.

Selection:
10pts win – Ghazan @ 11/2 PP

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5.20 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

A pretty consistent runner. albeit on the go for a long time, Roundabout Magic is one who more often than not gives you a good run for your money. He is also one who finds trouble on a regular basis.

So happened a week ago at Windsor. He travelled strongly and seemed to come with a big run when badly hampered 2f out.

He’s already won this year and was multiple times placed plus ran a career high time speed rating of 67. This small field should suit, if the pace is on.

Selection:
10pts win – Roundabout Magic @ 6/1 VC

Betting

Friday Selections: August, 24th 2018

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

5.45 Chelmsford: Class 6 Nursery, 5f

Bottom weight Sister’s Act sparks my interest here. This Equiano filly has shown early speed in her few starts before, totally unfancied though, it wasn’t a surprise so her finish flat.

She now makes her handicap debut off a low mark in a not overly competitive contest switching to the All-Weather which should suit her better on pedigree. Her mother is a winner on the sand as daddy Equiano has a sublime record on the All-Weather with his 2yo offspring over sprint trips, particular on left handed tracks.

Interestingly, trainer Peter Hedger’s record with juveniles on the All-Weather is also quite excellent (small sample size, but fits in well with his general performance in AW Handicaps).

With that in mind there is every chance Siser’s Act gets her act together today.

Selection:
10pts win – Sister’s Act @ 16/1 VC