Category Archives: Betting

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 21st May 2024

Leave a comment

It’s just not happening right now… strong run from Showboated who was a clear passage denied at a crucial stage and as a result had to delay his fully effort. DH for 3rd, eventually.

Another solid run and placed selection at double figure prices…. thankfully, at the very least, selections outrun expectations…. but that W remains elusive. A nightmare.

………

3.20 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Dion Baker is in smashing form and a repeat his last three highly eyecatching runs will see him win this.

He bumped into a couple last time at Wolverhampton, where he was hard at work early on to grab the lead in what should prove a hot contest – the winner was certainly well-handicapped on the day.

The two times before, at Yarmouth over a mile and prior to that over 6 furlongs, the gelding travelled pretty well and showed a lovely attitude to fight gamely, although was possibly outclassed somewhat and beaten by the race dynamics too.

Brighton, 7 furlongs, and the chance for having it easy enough to get the lead, down in class where he’s got a 3-1-2 record on turf, including his sole turf win, as well as achieved in each run good speed ratings, should afford him a cracking chance to add a third career victory to his CV.

He was only a shoulder beaten in higher grade last summer over this course and distance off 6lb higher than today. Since then he ran 64+ speed ratings on three occasions on sand or turf.

Currently down to a seriously dangerous mark of 63 the 5-year-old must be the prime contender in this race, as long as the rain doesn’t turn the ground too soft. It should subside, and not be enough to get much worse than good, though.

10pts win – Dion Baker @ 4/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 20th May 2024

Leave a comment

3.30 Redcar: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Showboated caught the for different reasons in each of his three runs this year and off bottom weight could play a bigger part than the betting may wants give him this morning.

He meets Pinpoint again, the one horse he finished behind three weeks ago at Ayr. That was a career-best performance on every measure, including speed ratings.

Dropped He was always travelling on the outside, right up with the pace, without cover, quite keenly. The winner was following closely, but always nicely covered up. That made the difference on the day.

He dropped to the minimum trip and responded well to that, showing good early speed, for all that he can be a bit awkward out the gates, and and kept on once under pressure with a good attitude.

On his seasonal reappearance at Newcastle in March Showboated entered the notebook for the first time. Not quite the best of starts, he was keen subsequently, travelled well enough and showed a good attitude to finish his race.

He never landed a blow over 7f next time. But that trip was too far, he was overly keen, and also interfered halfway through the race.

A sprint over 5 furlongs with plenty of pace could be exactly what this gelding needs. Fast ground is a question, but the pace scenario should help him and he’s drawn right beside one of the likely front-runners too.

Obviously he moves up up in class, meets some higher rated rivals today. Although, this 0-62 looks a particularly poor contest for this class. Off 8-8 he looks a tasty price, who can, at the very least, outrun his price.

10pts win – Showboated @ 9.5/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 16th May 2024

Leave a comment

3.45 York: Group 2 Dante Stakes, 1m 2.5f

Charlie Appleby is hitting some form of late as his big guns fire, so that adds weight to the fact that Ancient Wisdom has been backed to likely go off a short enough price in a hot Dante Stakes this afternoon.

We haven’t seen the impressive winner of the Futurity Stakes this year yet, that means some questions have to be asked about his fitness. But of course, if he could transfer his juvenile form to this year, he’d be an exciting horse to follow.

Ancient Wisdom’s Autumn Stakes win was the best any of seven going to post today had achieved on speed ratings. Saying that, different ground, and different trip today – let’s see whether he can run to that level of form today. I’m prepared, as so often, to oppose a short priced favourite.

Caviar Hights looks also a highly promising colt, and rates a pretty fair price, indeed. He achieved a superb 104 speed rating in the Listed Newmarket Stakes a fortnight ago.

Given he seemed to have no issues with the trip or the ground, he’s a prime chance today, if he could repeat that performance, which screamed Group 1 class.

Today is a tougher contest, though. And a different track. Those are the only two – albeit small – question marks I’d have.

Once again, though, I’ll have to go with God’s Window today. I’m prepared to forgive his most recent desperately disappointing showing at Chester.

He completely missed the break and it was basically race over there and then. God’s Window has a bit of history in that regard. That’s a clear and obvious question mark.

On the other hand, I remain convinced that’s a colt with serious talent. And the Gosden’s must think so too, otherwise they wouldn’d send him here after the recent disappointment.

To be honest, I can practically copy and paste my thoughts from prior to the Dee Stakes today – they apply 100% once more: the question about the ground has to be brought up again: does he need juice in the ground to be seen to best effect?

What speaks against that notion: his half-sister as well as his dam all won and did well on fast ground, in fact. His action doesn’t imply to my untrained eye that’s he “soft ground slogger”.

However, God’s Widow will absolutely love the step up in trip after having raced over about a mile in all his three career runs prior to Chester.

He achieved a fine 77 speed rating on debut, and showed a likable turn of foot that day at Doncaster despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.

Subsequently deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes, where he missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Despite being poorly positioned the colt finished in impressive style for third place.

I was delighted with his seasonal reappearance at Nottingham last month. He didn’t beat much, and this was more like a public racecourse gallop for this son of Dubawi.

The positives were clear and obvious, though: he kicked clear easily, posting good sections in soft ground, without having been properly asked. There must be a huge engine under the hood.

The dam was an Oaks Trial winner. The dam sire a King George winner. Dad is no one less than Dubawi. The step up to the 1m 2.5f trip should suit. Hopefully today he doesn’t lose the race at the start, so we get a proper answer to the question how good God’s Window really is.

10pts win – God’s Window @ 15/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 15th May 2024

Leave a comment

3.45 York: Group 3 Musidora Stakes, 1m 2.5f

This doesn’t look an overly deep renewal of the Musidora. Perhaps we said the same last year, when Soul Sister romped home? That was quite the day to celebrate for me… good old days.

Today I’m yet again keen on finding a way to get the favourite beat. For all that it doesn’t appear to be an easy task: Friendly Soul clearly is a filly with an abundance of talent. This daughter of Kingman slaughtered her rivals in the Pretty Polly Stakes ten days ago and achieved an excellent 98 speed rating that day as well.

Can she cope with the step up in trip today? The pedigree gives her every opportunity, though, she showed plenty of pace and may have to do the ‘donkey work’ today once again. On the other hand, Gosden’s have a tremendous record in this race.

Given we only have seen her twice so far, it’s hard to know where her ceiling is. The same can be said for a couple of other fillies in this field, at this stage of the season, and I’m always prepared to take on an odds-on shot, especially if there’s a meaningful alternative.

I’m especially intrigued by Mayfair stepping up in trip. I’m keeping an eye on the daughter of Justify since her eyecatching debut at Galway last August.

That was a pretty strong maiden with four subsequent winners, including recent Salsabil Stakes runner-up Purple Lilly. Mayfair did plenty wrong that day, and has continued to appear learning on the job ever since.

Her seasonal reappearance at the Curragh caught my attention once again. She was up with the pace, always in the headwind without cover, and that performance warranted an upgrade, given the winner was well covered throughout.

The form isn’t anything to shout about, and it was disappointing to see Mayfair getting beaten at Dundalk the next time, albeit by a potentially smart filly in Star Magnolia.

Mayfair is a full-sister of 104 rated Unless, a progressive 3-year-old last season, who improved with experience and who won a Listed race over 10 furlongs, plus was a fine runner-up in the Group 3 Royal Whip next time.

Unless did her best work on decent ground, and you would hope Mayfair can improve for better ground today as well. So far she raced only on heavy or on the sand. Showers are rolling on through Wednesday at York but shouldn’t turn the ground soft.

To my untrained eye Mayfair never looked like a filly with the speed and gears for 7 furlongs. It’s a gamble to move up right away to the Musidora trip, but it’s probably now or never for her to prove that she’s at least as good as her sister.

She should certainly improve for the recent racing experience, should strip fit, should enjoy the ground, the new trip looks a possibility on pedigree, and the race, if you’re prepared to take on the favourite, wide open.

10pts win – Mayfair @ 8/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 14th May 2024

Leave a comment

3.15 Beverley: Class 6 Handicap: 5f

Digital has been running quite well in two of his runs this season, since coming back from a break and having changed yards over the winter.

A strong third, without getting overly beaten up in the closing stages in 0-85 class was yet another indicator of his wellbeing. He achieved a good speed rating, too.

That came after a disappointing 9/10 at Kempton – however over 6f, from a wide enough draw, where he was pulling hard and not getting to the lead.

His seasonal reappearance, however, rates strongly. At Southwell in March he moved keenly forward from the widest draw. Set a good pace that contributed to some good speed figures achieved in the race. He showed good a good attitude before getting really tired.

The Southwell and most recent Wetherby run give the impression he’s not far off last years form, when he achieved solid 71 and 70 speed ratings, although also fell from a mark 0f 90 to 76.

Digital isn’t the force of old but judged on those last runs has found his current level and could have a couple of pounds in hand now, especially as he drops down to 0-72 level.

He’s got the #2 draw (effectively the #1 due to a non-runner) to attack the race from. Minimum trip and fast ground are fine, although he’s got to shoulder top-weight and may not get his own way completely up front.

Nonetheless, the advantage of his low draw, having the rail to guide him, usually is an advantage over this course and distance.

10pts win – Digital @ 11/2

………

5.50 Killarney: Conditions Race, 1m

Alpheratz sets quite a high standard for this race. Her unlucky second at the Curragh in March, followed up by a fair fifth at Leopardstown, both Group 3 form that has worked out well in the meantime, should give her a cracking chance today.

Saying that, the ground is a good deal quicker than the deep ground she encountered in all her four career runs to date, that’s a significant question mark.

Agha Khan filly Tannola could be smart. She won well when last seen and will surely enjoy moving up to a mile. She remains in the Irish 1000 Guineas for now and offers plenty of upside.

For all that, she didn’t run particularly fast on speed ratings in any of three career runs and she may also enjoy deeper ground.

Obviously Uluru is the most intriguing one, not only because she’s one of my horses to follow this season.

The filly was mightily impressive on her racecourse debut at Gowran Park last summer: from a wide draw where she didn’t get too well away at the start but eventually ran away with it and clocked an excellent 81 speed rating.

That’s the sign of a potentially smart individual. No surprise, she changed hands afterwards and was desperately unlucky for new owners, Team Valor, in her final start last season.

In a big sales race at Naas it wasn’t a good pace and she got stuck in traffic without a way to get out. She still managed to finish well enough to get him in 4th place.

No question she looks capable of turning into a stakes filly this year. She was in a race at Naas at the beginning of the season, though didn’t take up that engagement. Race fitness is a question. She’s never encountered this type of ground, either.T

But there’s plenty of faster ground form in her pedigree and moving up to a mile is a clear positive. The 7lb claim of Wayne Hassett is intriguing and, if she’s race fit, should give her the edge today.

10pts win – Uluru @ 4/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 12th May 2024

Leave a comment

3.30 Longchamp: Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains, 1m

Obviously Henry Longfellow is the one I’m most interested in. One of my horses to follow this year (hardly an original thought, to be fair), he’s got the looks of a potential superstar.

Drawn in #6 the son of Dubawi won’t have many excuses today and I hope he just runs away with it. At the price, it’s hard to justify a bet, in a deep race, though.

Purely from a value perspective I must back Dancing Gemini, who will enjoy a low draw, a prominent racing position and has shown a significant amount of talent as a juvenile as well.

Reportedly having wintered well, connections were deliberate routing their star colt to Longchamp as opposed to Newmarket. Perhaps a wise move, given he should enjoy this test, with the draw and the way the race may pan out a lot better.

The son of Camelot is quite experienced already. Five runs, two wins and he improved significantly for his fist two career runs as well as racing more forward.

He hinted no uncertain amount of talent when sprinting away at Newbury with a first maiden success in August, before romping home in the Scotsman Stakes.

Perhaps committing too early in the Futurity Stakes, Dancing Gemini ran still with plenty of credit in a hot renewal back in October last year.

He’s shown to handle juice in the ground – important today. The step up in trip is sure to suit, given his pedigree, by Camelot and out of a daughter of Australia.

Given this pedigree, it seems noteworthy the tactical speed he showed last year. His talent is underpinned by a fine 73 debut speed rating in June and a strong 99 speed rating when he won at Doncaster.

The exchange prices are way over the top in my view, so I’m happy to back him against the favourite.

10pts win – Dancing Gemini @ 18/1

……..

4.17 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

With the pace chart somewhat muddling, I feel it can be worth to side with proven and happy front-runner Jean Baptiste, who ran incredibly well from the front a fortnight ago at Ayr to finish a gallant 2nd.

No certainty that he can confirm that strong performance, but back on the sand where some of his best career efforts came over the years, especially this CD (regardless of what the naked record says, on speed ratings he ran really well in higher grades here).

Two pounds up and he loses the valuable claim of Jonny Peate today, compared to Ayr, that’s not ideal. But still 3lb below his last winning mark on turf, and the same 79 rating as when an excellent second two years ago over this course and distance.

Jean Baptiste is value at current prices in my book, well capable to outrun the odds in an open race that lacks quality. He’s drifting, though, which isn’t a good sign for this type of horse, to be fair.

10pts win – Jean Baptiste @ 11.5/1

…….

3.07 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Favourite Cross The Tracks looks well drawn but not sure why he’s so short, as the drop in trip doesn’t look ideal and he’s 8lb worth off in the weights than last time.

Yes, that came in a hot class 2 Handicap, so he’s shown a bit of class. But not on speed ratings yet. At that price I’m happy to take him on.

Mr Wonderful and Oakland Princess look intriguing opposition here. If race fit, the Amo Racing gelding could prove better than a 77 rating on his handicap debut.

However, I’m most intrigued by the filly, Oakland Princess, who can race here off a feather weight and should have plenty more to offer.

I felt it was significant that she didn’t take up her entry at Nottingham yesterday, in a race I thought she had a strong chance. Instead she comes here.

The filly ran with plenty of credit on her Handicap debut over this course and distance earlier this month. But she didn’t get a clean run through, was badly stopped in her progress at 1.5f from home, but got going again and finished well under hands and heels.

She appeared still raw in the early stages of the race. With the added experience, and hopefully a clear run today, she’s in with a shot. The draw isn’t ideal, away from the early pace, but Sam James shouldn’t have too much trouble to get across quickly to track the lead.

10pts win – Oakland Princess @ 8/1

…….

5.27 Newcastle: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

It seems worth to take a chance on Curran in an open race back over the course and distance of his very first career win.

You can forgive his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster in deep ground where he made way too much too soon in any case, in a what was a competitive Handicap, too.

This is easier. There’s competition for the lead from the favourite, but that may well suit, in fact, as Curran can track the pace, as he did when he won twice last year.

Todays run will also be his second after having been gelded over the winter. You’d hope to see a significantly improved performance compared to Doncaster.

10pts win – Curran @ 17/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 11th May 2024

Leave a comment

Right now I’m once again in a most depressing phase of my betting journey. You know the feeling, when whatever you touch, it turns into a stinky brown turd? Yeah, that’s exactly it.

Backing Too Friendly at 14s, well supported before to off to start a 9/2 second favourite, just to bomb out. It must been weeks now that a selection was even within a shot for a place with three furlongs to go. Properly depressing.

…….

3.00 Lingfield: Listed Derby Trial, 1m 3.5f

This looks a wide open renewal that lacks a clear favourite and superstar…. at this stage, at least. Ballysax third Illinois heads the market, though hard to fancy him with a significant amount of confidence, judged on what he’s done so far.

On the other hand, he’ll likely enjoy the better ground, and the AOB yard seems to have kicked into gear this week, in no uncertain terms. Hence a fair default favourite, but nothing more than that.

Camelot son Defiance was a fast finishing second in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom. That gives him an obvious chance to feature, if he can get off to a better start and doesn’t find himself too far back.

The pace should be decent, so that may play into his hands. But he’s a skinny enough price, and I probably would fancy Illinois in a match bet.

The Euphrates is another AOB trained colt. Really nicely bred, he should also enjoy the better ground and you’d expect him to improve significantly on the bare form he’s sown in three career runs to date.

Meydaan could be a lot better than he showed on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket where he dwelt and made life difficult for himself. He looked an exciting prospect on his sole juvenile run last year.

Arabic Legend has to improve, given his 1/4 record and having been keen enough over 10 furlongs at Epsom last month. Salamanca, a son of Sea The Stars, has a lot to find after two winless career runs, while Ambiente Friendly was well-beaten in his last two runs and doesn’t give the appearance of a Derby prospect.

No doubt, the one I must follow here is Imperial Sovereign. He was quite an eye catcher on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton in a hot Novice race. Only a head beaten behind a possibly seriously smart winner (British Camp one of my horses to follow this year).

That day Imperial Sovereign wasn’t smartly away from the gates, but soon recovered and tracked the pace. He then travelled much the best, on the bridle until 2f out, before being all out to the line to be beaten by a better horse on the day, as close as it was ultimately.

He showed a likeable attitude putting his head down and answering ever call, though. That was only his second career run and he won well on debut last autumn.

From a pedigree perspective the trip isn’t impossible, if not a given that he sees it out. Nonetheless, he’s bred to be classy, and everything he has shown so far points to the son of Frankel certainly having the ability to win at this level.

The dam did her best work with a bit of juice in the ground. Therefore the faster the going gets, the bigger the questions to answer on that front. However, it may help him to stay the trip a little bit better.

In any case, given the open nature of this contest, I feel looks certainly overpriced, given what he’s done so far, and the opposition he encountered (if I’m right that the Kempton race is a strong piece of form, indeed).

10pts win – Imperial Sovereign @ 15.5/1 SM

……

May add one or two additional selections on Saturday morning, depending on how markets develop.

Betting

Friday Selections: 10th May 2024

Leave a comment

3.40 Chester: Class 2 Handicap, 2m2½f

Usually this wouldn’t be my cup of tea from a betting perspective but I feel Too Friendly is potentially too well handicapped today, to not have a good at a decent price, given the ground continues to dry out and could suit him incredibly well.

The 6-year-old gelding remains quite lightly raced on the flat, and with that in mind may have still a few pounds in hand before the handicapper gets the measure right.

The #8 isn’t an ideal place and he’ll have to be perfect out of the gates to avoid getting trapped wide. He can move forward, though, and I hope De Sousa in the saddle can have him settle a few lengths off the pace, with cover, not too wide off the fence, eventually.

Purely from a handicapping perspective, I seriously rate his most recent run on the flat: in March at Kempton, over 2 miles, the first time seen without a hurdle in front of him in nearly two years.

Back in 2021 Too Friendly was a decent flat performer, competing in some hot races, before changing yards and becoming a hurdler.

A five-time winner over hurdles, back in October 2023 he was still a fine 2nd behind the subsequent Christmas Hurdle runner-up. His most recent run in a class 2 Handicap Hurdle was rather disappointing, though.

However, right before that he returned to the flat and was an impressive winner at Kempton. He looked way too good for his rivals that day and has only been upped 4lb to a still, potentially, lenient mark of 89.

Especially over staying trips he remains completely unexposed. And the fact he overcame an awkward start and early keenness at Kempton, suggests there’s more to come still.

It remains to be seen how the race pans out today, whether he can be in a decent position with three furlongs to go. If he can be, I think he’s got the gears to be thereabouts.

10pts win – Too Friendly @ 14/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 9th May 2024

Leave a comment

3.05 Chester: Listed Dee Stakes, 1m 2.5f

This looks a seriously competitive renewal of the Dee Stakes, with 4 of 5 colts certainly open to improvement over this trip, with hopes that they will enhance their own Derby credentials.

Obviously, God’s Widow is the one I’m most interested in. One of my Horses to Follow this year, today is an important day for his future prospects.

Initially, having seen the early prices, I wasn’t prepared to back him at short enough odds. But I’m happy to take the drift right now, prices in the realms of 10/3 a touch too big.

The betting has Jayarabe as the 2/1 favourite this morning. You can see why. Two from three, and an impressive seasonal reappearance in the Feilden Stakes last month, he ran to a solid 96 speed rating that day, proved his fitness, and will appreciate moving up in trip today as well.

I can’t fault him other than Chester is a different track that may or may not suit. We don’t know where his ceiling is. The only thing I have against him is the price.

On the other hand, I’m not sure what to make of Bracken’s Laugh. A fine winning return at Chelmsford recently over a mile, he showed promise on his debut, though didn’t get home in deep ground over 10 furlongs, albeit in hot company.

Capulet was beaten by Bracken’s Laugh at Chelmsford, perhaps with some slight excuses. His juvenile form is setting a good standard, and he should enjoy moving up in trip and surely will be ready to go today.

For all that, the O’Brien yard doesn’t seem in brilliant form lately, and Capulet is likely far down the pecking order, too. A career-best 89 speed rating up until now doesn’t scream “superstar” either.

Harper’s Ferry can’t be totally ignored. He’s got to improve significantly, though. Not impossible, given his pedigree. He’s shown issues at the start in all three career runs, and that’s off-putting.

That brings me to God’s Widow. The clear question mark is the ground. His runs all came with significant juice in the ground. However, he may rather overcame the conditions, than that they are a ‘must’ for him.

His half-sister as well as his dam all won and did well on fast ground, in fact. His action doesn’t imply to my untrained eye that’s he “soft ground slogger”.

However, God’s Widow will absolutely love the step up in trip after having raced over about a mile in all his three career runs to date and looked a highly promising colt.

He achieved a fine 77 speed rating on debut, and showed a likable turn of foot that day at Doncaster despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.

Subsequently deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes, where he missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Despite being poorly positioned the colt finished in impressive style for third place.

I was delighted with his seasonal reappearance at Nottingham last month. He didn’t beat much, and this was more like a public racecourse gallop for this son of Dubawi.

The positives were clear and obvious, though: he kicked clear easily, posting good sections in soft ground, without having been properly asked. There must be a huge engine under the hood.

The dam was an Oaks Trial winner. The dam sire a King George winner. Dad is no one less than Dubawi. The step up to the 1m 2.5f trip should suit.

Drawn in #1, he can hopefully find a ground saving position behind the likely pace Capulet and possibly Jayarabe.

10pts win – God’s Widow @ 10/3

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 8th May 2024

Leave a comment

8.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

In the hope Bated Breeze is allowed to run on merit today, he looks seriously overpriced in this race tonight. He met some of these before and is better off in the weights over an identical course and distance.

Most importantly, his two runs this season have been noteworthy. He caught the eye early April over this CD especially, which was backed up by a good speed rating that day as well.

From a wider than ideal gate he was awkwardly away and had to settle in rear, trailing the field, keenly enough. He quickened in visually arresting style from 3f out right into the fastest part of the race. He couldn’t quite get back to the leaders who enjoyed the run of the race, though.

Those first two home ran good speed ratings and were clearly well-handicapped on their handicap debuts. Bated Breeze also ran a 62 speed rating and I felt that performances warranted a chunky upgrade, which could mean he’s potentially well-handicapped off 64.

Fancied at Bath the next time, he didn’t run without merit in a seriously strong race, I thought. He couldn’t keep up the red hot pace after travelling strongly behind the leader until 2f out.

A #1 draw today offers options to move forward, as he did the last time. He’ll have to be at his best out of the gate as some pace pressure is expected to move right across from the wider gates.

If that works out well, the gelding should be in a perfect position and can race just off the lead, covered up. Off a mark of 64 he should have pounds in hand today back on the sand.

It’s Tom Queally’s only ride on the card and he was riding well for this yard lately. So that’s a positive, although the betting is the concern I have, with Bated Breeze going the wrong way.

10pts win – Bated Breeze @ 12/1