Category Archives: Betting

Betting

Sunday Selections: 11th December 2022

Leave a comment

2.43 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

This race is odds-on to be in the top 3 of the worst races I have looked into this year. This is really not a good race. At all.

It suits my selection, though. It may come to bite me, but I am quite bullish: if this lad is allowed to run on merit, i.e. the handbrake is off, and he’s trained to be fit, then he’ll run away with this.

Granted, on the surface it requires a little bit of imagination, when checking the form of Lucky Lucky Lucky. It’s clearly there to see, though – in my eyes, at least.

For one: while not an eye-catching performance at first glance, his most recent run over 7 furlongs at this venue was noteworthy. For the simple fact that the gelding broke well and travelled enthusiastically, with his ears pricked, up with a solid pace early on. This isn’t your typical 17-race maiden with attitude issues.

Going back to August, on turf, at Redcar, he finished a strong third. That day over 6 furlongs, he got badly hampered in the closing stages and a clear run denied. He probably wins it if he gets a clear passage. He showed a lovely attitude that day-

His more recent performances were obviously really poor runs on paper. But I believe there is enough to see a horses with sufficient appetite for the game.

In any case, Lucky Lucky Lucky is down to a mark of 49 now. Dropped another 3lb since the last Newcastle run. He drops to 6 furlongs as well. Trip wise this is what I hoped to see. He should stay further on pedigree. And is a full-brother to a listed placed Dundalk mare (1m).

But the way he moves through his races, and the fact his career-best run came over this trip, suggests 6 furlongs could be ideal. Although I wouldn’t rule out backing him over 7 furlongs in the future (note: has entry next week over 7f)

Speed ratings suggest he could (should) be well handicapped now. First time blinkers are tried. It may help to sharpen him up. The jockey booking is a slight concern. Alex Jary simply doesn’t ride many winners. Nonetheless, he looks solid in the saddle visually, but largely sits on horses with no hope.

It’s different here. Lucky Lucky Lucky has plenty of hope. The additional 7lb claim, which looks good value, make the 3-year-old gelding an outstanding chance on handicapping terms. Add to this that his sire has a super record over this CD plus a yard that’s two from four over the last 28 days and you may start to buy in to my enthusiasm for this horse.

Now all we need is Newcastle to go ahead on Sunday. Inspection is called for 7:30. Fingers crossed.

I am writing this on Saturday night. With these type of horses, in these type of races, you never can be sure when it’s “D-day”. If he is on the drift to solid double figure prices it’s going to be a clear sign that we have to wait for another day.

10pts win – Lucky Lucky Lucky @ 17/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 10th December 2022

Leave a comment

Waverley Star was a lovely winner on Friday, the first in December, although I had only five selections prior to today, with two solid placings, although that counts for little if you back win only, which is what I do.

In any case, Waverley Star was a whopping 9/1 shot (my price; even more generous was available until noon, though; well backed into SP 5/1) and certainly helps to bring the month right back into the solid green.

The 3-year-old gelding did fulfill the hopes outlined in the preview: he went forward, grabbed the lead halfway through and was never to be seen again by the rest of the field.

It’s the one thing that consistently proving the best results on basically all All-Weather tracks over sprint trips: grab the lead and hold on to it…. and still you see people backing hold-up horses over these trips on the sand.

Yet, as you will see soon, I’ll do this as well, from time to time, at least. Can’t be dogmatic, is my view. A value bet is a value bet and simply reflects track bias in the price and evaluation of the chance.

……….

4.30 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

A competitive class 4 Handicap, with a seemingly progressive handicap newcomer as the favourite; all but one horse are rated 80 plus.

I have the feeling the class dropping top weights will struggle to make an impact off 9-11 here, given some other rivals make far greater appeal on weight and handicapping terms.

Dicoles Of Rome ran some fine races the last two times and is one on my list; he should find this easier, but at the same time he appears to me still a bit too high in the mark to be considered a bet.

Favourite Brewing could be anything. Judged through the form of his two wins an opening mark of 83 isn’t a giveaway. Also, those weren’t lightning fast races; his best speed rating of 45 is meaningless in this much hotter class.

The 7/4 price has already backed some massive improvement, which may or may not come. Certainly he’s a favourite that has to be taken on.

Tothenines is the proverbial consistent sort. Possibly in the grip of the handicapper, but these tough, consistent horses do well at this time of the year. He’s a real danger.

Naturally I am drawn to Beattie Is Back. An eye-catcher multiple times lately. He’s also one who finds the trouble.

He did so last time at Wolverhampton, as early as he got out of the gates. That run can be thoroughly forgiven, he was clearly minded in the home straight, although excellent progress in the middle part of the race still showed possibly in serious form.

Before that, here at Newcastle, then over 6 furlongs, he was an even bigger eye-catcher, as he travelled strongly in midfield, loomed large 2 furlongs out but was continuously a clear run denied, as a result dropped to the back of the field before finishing strongly in the final half furlong all the way to the line.

Similar upgrades can be given to his two performances prior to this, too. Beattie Is Back is also a course and distance winner already, although it was a Novice race in spring this year. Judged through that form he’s on a fair mark. However, I believe, if judged by his last efforts, he clearly has shown to be at least a good win better than 70.

He is still relatively lightly raced and I am glad he tries 7 furlongs again, especially at this track, as it gives his racing style the best chance on the All-Weather. In these circumstances there’s possibly more to come, in any case.

Even though I am not sure he’s a proper class 4 horse – he’s yet to run to a speed rating that I’d like to see – I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. This low weight looks intriguing against opposition possibly not well handicapped.

I also really like the likely pace scenario. Drawn in #3 he’s right beside the most likely pace setter, Larado, and may get a nice lead into the closing stages to produce a turn of foot with hopefully little trouble to meet in-running, in this field of only seven runners.

If this doesn’t work out on Saturday, Beattie Is Back has got a Class 5 (0-70) entry next week and could be interesting there, although this is at Wolverhampton.

10pts win – Beattie Is Back @ 8/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 9th December 2022

Leave a comment

4.10 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Waverley Star Fast caught the eye with a pretty solid front-running performance recently, which represented a clear return to form, coinciding with a drop down to the minimum trip on the All-Weather.

He started quickly, led the field for home, kicked on from 3f out out, still going well turning into the home straight before he was eventually headed with half a furlong to go, having slowed dramatically.

That was his first proper, “well-rounded” performance since being gelded in the summer. He’s always been a somewhat tricky customer, and remains to be one even after the gelding operation.

In any case, he looks a pure 5 furlongs sprinter, though, and one can ignore any attempts over further, in my view. Over the minimum trip he ran a number of times well this year, both on turf and the All-Weather.

Most notably when a strong finishing 4th over this course and distance in March on a day where everything went wrong. He also ran to a 51 speed rating then, which means, in theory, he’s got a really good chance to be seriously competitive off his current handicap mark, in this class, if in the right mood.

He’s 4lb lower today than that day, has been dropped another pound since his recent Lingfield run, on a mark of 50, down from a career highest 59 in summer.

With additional 3lb taken off by excellent apprentice Ryan Sexton Waverley Star makes plenty of appeal on the handicapping side of things. He’s got a good, low draw today, and there is likely to be little pace to compete against.

Granted he gets a solid start, there is every chance he can get an easy lead. An ideal scenario for the 3-year-old gelding, who does his best work from the front.

10pts win – Waverley Star @ 9/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 7th December 2022

Leave a comment

Good run by Wadacre Grace yesterday at Southwell. It wasn’t quite good enough, though: 2nd place.

I have no complaints, there were no excuses. She got a lovely ride and found one too good. In that sense I was perhaps too optimistic in believing she she was more than only a couple of pounds ahead of her mark.

………

1.25 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

This is a competitive sprint. Tyger Bay is obviously one I am interested in and he should run well, but may find this ultimately a bit too hot off his current mark that is no more than fair in these circumstances.

Flying Secret is another one who caught the eye, although that was as far back as May, on turf. He steps up significantly in class now back in Handicap company. However, as the bottom weight in this field he makes a ton of appeal for various reasons.

For one: I loved his return at Kempton last month after half a year off the track. He was a bit too keen in the early parts of the race, perhaps too fresh, but the slow pace didn’t help either.

He kicked nicely from 3 furlongs out and held his effort pretty well to the line, despite being entitle to tire. He will be fitter today, most likely, and the pace should work in his favour.

The 3-year-old gelding should be ahead of his mark stepping back into handicap competition, and I have no worries in this class. His Salisbury run in May was seriously strong, as he finished much the best for 3rd place, not getting the clearest of runs.

This form is strong. The winner is 18lb higher rated today, the runner-up won subsequently, too. He ran to a 70 speed raring, not fully ridden out, even. His current mark 0f 73 may underestimate the true potential.

I don’t like the #7 draw and wonder whether he may be too far off the pace today, though. But I hope a strong pace will bring the leaders back, and this lad has the ability to kick and finish strongly.

10pts win – Flying Secret @ 4/1

……..

8.00 Kempton: Class 2 Handicap, 2m

If the Lingfield race is competitive, then this final of the stayers’ series is ultra competitive. Usually this isn’t my type of race to get involved, given I largely specialise in shorter races and certainly not in these hot long-distance contests.

But Bandinelli is one I have on the list for a while and he did nothing but enhance his claims in the Northumberland Plate in my view: always travelling well, coming with a big challenge in the home straight, before short of room 3f out, having his momentum stopped, getting going again, and eventually tiering into 6th place.

This is a really good stayer, and he’s 2lb lower than at Newcastle, only a pound above his mark when landing a good Handicap over 2 miles here at Kempton.

It would be harsh to judge him on his comeeback run over this CD three weeks ago. He clearly needed the run and will be better today. If back to his best form from earlier this year, he’s the one to beat. I have no doubt he can turn the form around with Rainbow Dreamer and Island Brave.

He’s got a fine draw to get to a prepared prominent position with much fuss – the race should be set up perfectly for him to make his move from over 2 furlongs out at the cutaway.

The Appleby yard looks solid form. No indication that there is anything to worry about. Bandinelli is two from three over this course and distance and this being only his 6th run over the trip, it’s not impossible that he can find one or two pounds of improvement.

10pts win – Bandinelli @ 9/2

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 6th December 2022

Leave a comment

4.50 Southwell: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

A class 3 Handicap in the name only – without the fresh French recruit of Rae Guest, this would be a borderline 0-75 contest.

Ranes is an unknown quantity but could be potentially well handicapped, especially in this field against her own sex. Her French handicap mark has been translated 1:1 to a BHA mark, and this one could underestimate her, given her most recent success on the Deauville polytrack looks strong where she beat higher rated rivals.

However, she has to carry a lot more weight in real terms here: from 8-0st to 9-12. People have their different views on weight, but in my view this is a significant increase and a major question mark.

In any case there is a filly in this race I am fairly sure is a better than her current mark, if she finally gets her act together. That is Wadacre Grace, who significantly caught the eye the last two times.

The 3-year-old filly showed a strong level of form in four of her five runs since successfully returning from a 5 months long break in September.

She kicked it all off with victory on handicap debut at Newcastle over 7 furlongs, despite showing some inexperience, she finished incredibly strongly to get up on the line. It’s been her trademark ever since to find plenty under pressure in the closing stages (with the exception of a subsequent poor run, which she has left behind the next three runs, though).

I love that attitude, less so the way she can start her races. She can be sluggish out of the gate, and quite keen in the early stages of the race. I reckon that cost her victory at Chelmsford, when less pronounced but clearly played a part why she ‘only managed’ third place.

She completely missed the break the next time at Kempton. She benefited from a slow early pace to quickly get back to the field but nonetheless had to spend significantly more energy than everyone else and found herself in the worst position possible, too. She finished like a train, eventually.

She had a better – if not ideal – start last time out. She went forward to join the leader pushing a good pace, before dropping into second. Once again, when headed, she found plenty under pressure, especially staying on strongly in the final furlong for 2nd place. That was especially impressive after pushing the pace to finish so well. 

She has only ran to a 64 speed rating to date, although that came in her Newcastle victory in September. I’ve got no doubts that she has more to offer. Clearly there is more talent under the hood than a lowly 69 rating would suggest. Not to forget this is only her sixth career handicap start as well. There’s more to come.

I don’t mind the wide draw tomorrow. It’s not a big deal over a mile at Southwell. If she starts slowly then it doesn’t matter from where, anyway. It doesn’t look like there is going to be mad competition for the lead. I hope that helps her to get to a prominent position without too much fuss, and provides Franny Norton with the options to stride forward, if needed.

This filly wants to gallop. So let her get on with things. She stays every inch of the trip (no surprise, the dam was a 12 furlong winner at Southwell), so let her do her thing and she will run away with it.

10pts win – Wadacre Grace @ 9/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 2nd December 2022

Leave a comment

5.15 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

The filly Giselles Izzy ran the most bizarre race three weeks ago at Wolverhampton over the shorter 6 furlongs trip. She wasn’t sharply away from the #1 gate, had to be encouraged to move forward until she found herself stuck behind a wall of horses and was pulled back to the rear of the field.

She then made some eye-catching progress from 3 furlongs out against the inside rail, eventually slicing through the field easily under hands and heels while not finding the smoothest of passages. Nonetheless, she finished by far the fastest.

One of the most bizarre performances and rides I have seen this year. The steadied start and energy conserved played a part, yet the seriously strong finish under hands and heels points to the filly being in excellent form.

Normally only a horse in good form can do what she did in the backend of the race. That was her second run off a small break. She did well the two times before on turf.

Now back over 7 furlongs, she deserves another chance. She should stay on pedigree.

I don’t like fillies during the winter, and certainly none that may mess up the start. But I simply can’t get her latest most incredible run out of my head.

10pts win – Giselles Izzy @ 10.5/1

……..

6.15 Newcastle: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

This looks a hot contest and possibly a minefield to try and find the winner. But I feel it’s noteworthy that money comes for War In Heaven. It’s the sign I was hoping to see after an eye-catching run four weeks ago at Chelmsford.

There he was quite keen after the start, stumbled badly soon after and the jockey just managed to stay on board. He continued to race keenly before dropping to the rear of field.

He finished well to the eye under an easy ride eventually, and one could have wondered “what if” .

That was the second start for a new yard after being gelded as well; a clear sign that he’s moving in the right direction. One can forgive the Newmarket comeback run, though.

He showed some talent earlier this year, especially when winning twice over 6 furlongs at Lingfield. He’s also a full-bother to useful French juvenile filly Bolivie, who is rated 89 if converted to a British handicap mark.

Down to 6 furlongs looks a positive, as it should help to settle. Cheek-pieces fitted may help too. If allowed to run on his merit, this gelding could be seriously well handicapped. However, to keep in mind, he showed a tendency for starting poorly in the past, and that could end his chances prematurely. It’s worth the risk.

10pts win – War In Heaven @ 10/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 1st December 2022

Leave a comment

Here we are, December. How time is flying. The last month in 2022. It’s been a wild year on the betting front. Significant ups and downs, variance tested my mental fortitude.

It’s gonna be a profitable year, after all, though. Most likely at least, baring a total disaster in December – usually a rather quiet month for me.

I wasn’t too confident whether a green 2022 is possible at various times this year. Least so after baking 31 consecutive losers between August and October.

After three brutal months, November – thankfully – was much kinder. Backing the Melbourne Cup winner at long odds helped, of course. 12 selections, 4 winners. The best November in ages, and one of the most profitable month in a long time in general.

I took a little deep dive into the data yesterday in this little thread on Twitter, talking short-term vs. long term view, variance and and the mental aspect of the game.

…….

7.30 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

This doesn’t look like the most competitive race for this class and trip at this time of the year. Not too many make any real appeal.

La Roca Del Fuego is one I do quite like. He caught my eye recently and must rate a prime chance with a 7lb claimer on board, but I hope to catch him on another day.

The other one who is seriously interesting is Expert Opinion. IF he can find another pound or two for the application of blinkers he’s got a significant chance today.

He put up two big performances over course and distance the last two starts. Last time out represented a career best on speed ratings, in fact.

He’s clearly down to a highly competitive mark, having performed well off higher this year already. That says, Expert Opinion is a tricky sort. His poor strike record tells a tale.

However, over this CD he’s placed 5/7. That gives the fresh application of first-time blinkers a significance.

Luke Morris in these type of conditions on low weights has a quite a nice record too. I hope he can get the gelding sharply out of the excellent #2 gate. He should be able to track the pace closely from there and get the perfect run through.

10pts win – Expert Opinion @ 5/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 29th November 2022

Leave a comment

A lovely winner thanks to Thrave at Kempton yesterday afternoon. It was his day to shine, finally.

In fairness, despite the rather generous price, I was quietly confident he could go seriously close, if the handbrake is off. 7 furlongs with a solid pace, from a good draw and a career lowest mark – I couldn’t have dreamt of a better opportunity for him, as mentioned beforehand.

It doesn’t always work like that, of course. More often than not you can dream up all you want and you go home empty handed. This is an especially sweet one, though. Having tracked the gelding for the entire season it’s pleasing when it all comes together as you envisioned it in your mind.

Things look a lot brighter now. In fact, much brighter, after I realised my P/L sheet had a filter activated that hid a number of selections from a specific cohort… and with that some winners, too. This was the cherry on the cake today.

……….

3.50 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

My good friend Pockley bids for back-to-back wins here. Of course, I backed him the two times prior to winning at Newcastle last time out. He should run well here again, but has to carry 5lb more, which may be enough to stop him from winning.

The one I seriously fancy in this field only managed to finish in 6th place, beaten more than three lengths, by Pockley, in the same race a fortnight ago. Nonetheless, there is a lot to like about Never Dark, who’s finally back racing around a bend.

He caught the eye at Pontefract and also in his last two All-Weather runs at Newcaste and showed a good level of consistency this year, too. He was never beaten more than 3.5 lengths in his last seven starts since early September, managed speed ratings of 69+ twice and often travelled quite well to suggest he’s a horse that performs in and around his current handicap marks.

Perhaps he was somewhat in the grip of the handicapper, largely down to this consistency. He finally drops below 70 now, a career lowest mark, as the handicapper gives him an opportunity, I believe.

The #5 draw is fine for his style of racing. He shouldn’t be too far off the pace. The bend will help him, if he’s up with the pace, as well.

All in all: trip, track, surface, draw, handicap mark, class, opposition – nothing to worry, but much to like.

10pts win – Never Dark @ 8/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 28th November 2022

Leave a comment

One of those times again: not quite happening for me. Three of the last five selections placed. And then there was the the ‘killer’ on Saturday: Milbanke. Backed him a week ago with confidence, when he ran huge for third place, but then let him go unbacked on Saturday, when of course, he won. Autsch.

It’s a frustrating year, in that sense. Too many of those stories. It looks likely to be a losing year now – the first in over five years.

It was also frustrating to see my Summer Cup selection Safe Passage beaten in 2nd place at Turffontein on Saturday; he ran a cracker, but was probably doing too much too soon, going forward from the #10 draw, while the winner, gutsy Puerto Manzano, got a much more quiet ride, always sitting off the pace.

Later that evening Making Music ran a shocker; the drift to 20/1+ gave it away beforehand. I could really do with a nice winner today….

………

3.15 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

I can’t avoid backing Thrave today. Somewhat a ghost I am chasing all season long. Is today the day?

If the handbrake is off Thrave will go close. No question about that. He’s racing over 7 furlongs, down t a mark off 61 – I couldn’t have dreamed up a better opportunity for the seven-year-old gelding.

Last time out the handbrake was clearly on. Even a blind man would have seen that. That run aside, perhaps the Newcastle performance prior was surprisingly poor. Especially because Thrave showed consistency this season, ran well and caught the eye a number of times all year long.

He ran four times to speed ratings of 62+ on turf, although it can be argued he’s a better horse on the All-Weather. In any case, he’s down to a career lowest mark, races over the right trip, with a good draw in a race where he shouldn’t have an issue to be right up with the pace.

Even though age may start to catch up with him, Thrave is better than those last two poor showings. This isn’t a strong field and if allowed to run on merit, is clearly overpriced.

10pts win – Thrave @ 13/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 26th November 2022

Leave a comment

7.20 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Many will want to get position close to the pace. I’m tracking Eye Of the Water for a few weeks now, but still feel this isn’t quite the right race given the draw, and likely hot pace over this trip.

The filly Making Music looks much better handicapped an here with a huge chance from her #1 draw. It’s easy to forgive her latest poor showing over a trip too far.

She pulled hard over shorter, so it was no surprise to see her fading badly when stepping up to 9.5 furlongs. She lead soon crossing over from the widest draw but ran her race as the field approached the home turn.

I feel the 3-year-old is better judged on the Kempton run before, which caught my eye.

Even there over a mile, she was quite keen, not helped in that regard by the application for blinkers for the first time. Nonetheless, she travelled well into home straight, tracking the pace in third. She made her move from 2f out, which petered out inside final furlong. Most likely she paid for early exertions, still finished well in third.

Making Music is most likely a bit better than her current mark. Her reference performance is the August 2nd place at this venue over a mile, when she ran to topspeed 63 off a 64 mark, and the form has been significantly franked in the meantime.

Today she is down to a mark off 59 today. As she drops to 7 furlongs, the blinkers remain on, from an ideal #1 draw, she should be quite well handicapped in these circumstances.

She should be able to get an ideal handy position. The likely hot pace should help her to settle. It’s always a risk to back a 10-race maiden, but she is on the right mark, in the right race today.

10pts win – Making Music @ 12/1

……….

1.35 Turffontein: Group 1 Summer Cup, 10f

Exciting race this afternoon over at Turffontein, South Africa. 2022 Durban July heroine Sparkling Water bids for Grade 1 glory, after a highly satisfying comeback run three weeks ago.

She was such an impressive – albeit slightly surprisingly easy – winner of South Africa’s premier race. Everything worked to perfection that day. Judged on that effort, if in the same form, she’s obviously the one beat.

But, over the shorter 2.000m trip I have to oppose her, especially in this hot contest, where she also has to carry a lot more weight now, than the light weight she enjoyed at Durban.

No question, the one I am keen to her oppose her with is stable Mate Safe Passage. Especially as the odds are much bigger than I’d have ever thought you’d get for him. He’s overpriced, in my book.

Let’s not forget Safe Passage went off 2nd favourite for the July, after an ultra impressive success in the Grade 1 Daily News a couple of weeks prior, that catapulted him to the top of the market in the days leading up to the big race.

He enjoyed an incredibly season up to that point: winner of the Dingaans and Gauteng Guineas, runner-up in the Cape Derby and then that victory in the Daily News, off a nearly three months long break, which was only meant to be a prep.

This is a highly talented colt, who continuously progressed with experience, and reportedly has physically improved since July, too. He had a good comeback run in the meantime, when clearly minded in the closing stages.

I have no doubt, despite having been beaten by over three lengths in the Durban July, Safe Passage is more talented than Sparkling Water, in fact he’s the best horse over ten furlongs in South Africa. The turnaround in the weights is, beside the trip, another advantage, he’s got over Sparkling Water, today.

Looking back at the July, it’s clear things didn’t really worked out for him that day. From a wild start, to not getting the clearest of run in the home straight, to possibly having done too much too soon in the race, to truly stay the additional furlong.

The draw today is a bit wider than ideal, but it shouldn’t matter too much either. As long as there is a solid pace, Safe Passage should be able to produce his trademark turn of foot and off a fair weight could have too much to offer for the rest of the field.

Obviously with 17 other runners in the field, this could easily become messy, and someone could spring a surprise. Yet, it’s hard to ignore this rather generous price for the most likely most talented horse in South Africa, who’s fit, in good form over a trip and track he loves.

10pts win – Safe Passage @ 5.7