2.43 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

This race is odds-on to be in the top 3 of the worst races I have looked into this year. This is really not a good race. At all.

It suits my selection, though. It may come to bite me, but I am quite bullish: if this lad is allowed to run on merit, i.e. the handbrake is off, and he’s trained to be fit, then he’ll run away with this.

Granted, on the surface it requires a little bit of imagination, when checking the form of Lucky Lucky Lucky. It’s clearly there to see, though – in my eyes, at least.

For one: while not an eye-catching performance at first glance, his most recent run over 7 furlongs at this venue was noteworthy. For the simple fact that the gelding broke well and travelled enthusiastically, with his ears pricked, up with a solid pace early on. This isn’t your typical 17-race maiden with attitude issues.

Going back to August, on turf, at Redcar, he finished a strong third. That day over 6 furlongs, he got badly hampered in the closing stages and a clear run denied. He probably wins it if he gets a clear passage. He showed a lovely attitude that day-

His more recent performances were obviously really poor runs on paper. But I believe there is enough to see a horses with sufficient appetite for the game.

In any case, Lucky Lucky Lucky is down to a mark of 49 now. Dropped another 3lb since the last Newcastle run. He drops to 6 furlongs as well. Trip wise this is what I hoped to see. He should stay further on pedigree. And is a full-brother to a listed placed Dundalk mare (1m).

But the way he moves through his races, and the fact his career-best run came over this trip, suggests 6 furlongs could be ideal. Although I wouldn’t rule out backing him over 7 furlongs in the future (note: has entry next week over 7f)

Speed ratings suggest he could (should) be well handicapped now. First time blinkers are tried. It may help to sharpen him up. The jockey booking is a slight concern. Alex Jary simply doesn’t ride many winners. Nonetheless, he looks solid in the saddle visually, but largely sits on horses with no hope.

It’s different here. Lucky Lucky Lucky has plenty of hope. The additional 7lb claim, which looks good value, make the 3-year-old gelding an outstanding chance on handicapping terms. Add to this that his sire has a super record over this CD plus a yard that’s two from four over the last 28 days and you may start to buy in to my enthusiasm for this horse.

Now all we need is Newcastle to go ahead on Sunday. Inspection is called for 7:30. Fingers crossed.

I am writing this on Saturday night. With these type of horses, in these type of races, you never can be sure when it’s “D-day”. If he is on the drift to solid double figure prices it’s going to be a clear sign that we have to wait for another day.

10pts win – Lucky Lucky Lucky @ 17/2