Here we are, December. How time is flying. The last month in 2022. It’s been a wild year on the betting front. Significant ups and downs, variance tested my mental fortitude.
It’s gonna be a profitable year, after all, though. Most likely at least, baring a total disaster in December – usually a rather quiet month for me.
I wasn’t too confident whether a green 2022 is possible at various times this year. Least so after baking 31 consecutive losers between August and October.
After three brutal months, November – thankfully – was much kinder. Backing the Melbourne Cup winner at long odds helped, of course. 12 selections, 4 winners. The best November in ages, and one of the most profitable month in a long time in general.
I took a little deep dive into the data yesterday in this little thread on Twitter, talking short-term vs. long term view, variance and and the mental aspect of the game.
7.30 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 5f
This doesn’t look like the most competitive race for this class and trip at this time of the year. Not too many make any real appeal.
La Roca Del Fuego is one I do quite like. He caught my eye recently and must rate a prime chance with a 7lb claimer on board, but I hope to catch him on another day.
The other one who is seriously interesting is Expert Opinion. IF he can find another pound or two for the application of blinkers he’s got a significant chance today.
He put up two big performances over course and distance the last two starts. Last time out represented a career best on speed ratings, in fact.
He’s clearly down to a highly competitive mark, having performed well off higher this year already. That says, Expert Opinion is a tricky sort. His poor strike record tells a tale.
However, over this CD he’s placed 5/7. That gives the fresh application of first-time blinkers a significance.
Luke Morris in these type of conditions on low weights has a quite a nice record too. I hope he can get the gelding sharply out of the excellent #2 gate. He should be able to track the pace closely from there and get the perfect run through.
10pts win – Expert Opinion @ 5/1